Uluslararası Ticaretin Serbestleştirilmesi Sürecinde Türk Tekstil ve Hazır Giyim Sektörünün Rekabet Gücü ve Çin Tehdidi

Marmara Üniversitesi øø%)'HUJLVL

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COMPETITIVENESS OF TURKISH TEXTILE AND

CLOTHING SECTOR AND CHINA THREAT IN THE

PROCESS OF THE LIBERALIZATION OF INTERNATIONAL

TRADE

Abstract

The textile and clothing sector which is the oldest industry of the world, takes important roles in the process of economic development, especially in developing countries by reason of both value added that is provided in the process of production and the sector’s high rate in the export revenues. The sector operating in variable market conditions is one of the most global sectors in the world. Parallel to this, today, it is possible to say that the textile and clothing firms are in an intense competition. In this regard, the terms as competition and competitiveness which are continuously discussed in the international economics literature, become more important.

The basic aim of this study is to determine the position of Turkish Textile Sector in the global competitive environment. For this purpose, initially, the textile and clothing industry in Turkey is introduced and the regulations related to sector and their effects on the sector are explained. Subsequently, in the research part of this study, Turkish textile and clothing industry’s international competitiveness between 1998-2008 is analyzed with using Balassa's Revealed Comparative Advantage Index andVollrath's three alternative measures of revealed comparative advantage and the threat of China on the sector after the elimination of quotas is tried to evaluate. As a result it is determined that the sector had comparative competitive advantage but this advantage was lost by textile sector after 1998 and by clothing sector after 2005. In this context the necessities to survive the sector is emphasized.

Key Words: International Competitiveness, China Threat, Revealed

Comparative Advantage

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8OXVODUDUDVÕ7LFDUHWL6HUEHVWOHúWLUPHdDEDODUÕ*$77¶ÕQ.XUXOPDVÕ

14

Her ne kadar GATT, LoHUGL÷L NXUDOODU LWLEDUL\OH WLFDUHWLQ VHUEHVWOHúPHVLQL |QJ|UPú ROVD GD bu DQODúPD\Õ LP]DOD\DQ ELU ONH GÕú WLFDUHWLQL G]HQOHPH KDNNÕQGDQ E\N |OoGH IHUDJDW HGHUHN XOXVODUDUDVÕ NXUDOODUD X\PD\Õ NDEXO HWPHNWHGLU %X DQODúPD\D J|UH ONHOHU JPUN WDULIHOHULQL \HUOL UHWLP GDOODUÕQÕ NRUXPDQÕQ WHN DUDFÕ RODUDN NDEXO HWPHNWH YH NRUXPDFÕ X\JXODPDODUD DoÕNoD VÕQÕU NR\PDNWDGÕUODU. Ancak 1960’lardan LWLEDUHQ X]XQ \ÕOODU ER\XQFD *$77¶ÕQ HQ olarak da bilinen bu DQODúPD\OD WHPHOL GÕú WLFDUHW ]HULQGHNL HQJHOOHUL NDOGÕUDUDN VHUEHVW XOXVODUDUDVÕ WLFDUHWHGD\DOÕELUGQ\DHNRQRPLNVLVWHPLQLQROXúWXUXOPDVÕNDUDUODúWÕUÕOPÕúWÕU

12

Gothard Artelt, “Dünya’da ve Türkiye’de Tekstil ve Konfeksiyon Sanayinde Teknolojik *HOLúPHOHU´ ¶OL <ÕOODUGD 7HNVWLO YH Konfeksiyon Semineri 11- $UDOÕN øVWDQEXO 7HNVWLOYH.RQIHNVL\RQøKUDFDWoÕ%LUOLNOHULøVWDQEXOV

13 _{WTO, International Trade Statstics 2009 Report, s: 102-103,}

http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_ e/its2009_e/its2009_e.pdf, (02.05.2010)

14 _{András Inotai and Harald Sander, World Trade After the Uruguay Round: Prospects}

önemli ilkelerinden -\H ONHOHULQ WLFDUL SDUWQHUOHUL DUDVÕQGD D\UÕP \DSÕOPDPDVÕQÕ ]RUXQOXNÕODQ- µ(QdRN.D\ÕUÕODQhONH¶LONHVLQLQWHNVWLOsektörü için geçerOLROPDGÕ÷Õ YH PLNWDU NÕVÕWODPDODUÕQÕQ X\JXODQGÕ÷Õ J|UOPHNWHGLU.15 _{Bununla birlikte GÕú WLFDUHW} ]HULQGHNL HQJHOOHULQ NDOGÕUÕODUDN XOXVODUDUDVÕ WLFDUHWLQ VHUEHVWOHúWLULOPHVLQLQ 7UNL\H¶QLQ OHKLQH ROPDGÕ÷Õ DoÕNWÕU =DWHQ $% SD]DUÕQGD NRWDVÕ] WLFDUHW \DSDQ TUNL\H LoLQ \DOQÕ] $%' SD]DUÕ VHUEHVWOHúPLú ve 7UNL\H $% SD]DUÕQGDNL EX D\UÕFDOÕNOÕ NRQXPXQX ND\EHGHUNHQ $%' SD]DUÕQGD GD FR÷UDIL X]DNOÕN YH GúN PDOL\HWOL 8]DNGR÷X UQOHULQH QLVSHWHQ \NVHN IL\DWODUÕ\OD UHNDEHWWH ]RU JQOHU JHoLUPLúWLU16

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6DQD\LOHúPLú Avrupa ENRQRPLN 7RSOXOX÷X’na üye ülkeleriQ JHOLúPHNWH RODQ ONHOHUND\QDNOÕLWKDODWWDQLoSD]DUODUÕQÕ NRUXPD JLULúLPOHUL VRQXFXQGDGRNX] JHOLúPLúONHLOHELUOLNWHDUDODUÕQGD7UNL\H¶QLQGH\HUDOGÕ÷ÕJHOLúPHNWHRODQONHOHU DUDVÕQGD\ÕOÕQGDdRN(O\DIOÕODU$QODúPDVÕLP]DODQPÕúWÕU.

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(MFA)

17 _{7HNVWLO UQOHUL WLFDUHWLQGH NÕVÕWODPD X\JXODPDODUÕ} ¶OHULQ EDúÕQGD DUWPD\D EDúODPÕú ve bunun ]HULQH *$77 NRQVH\L WDUDIÕQGDQ tekstil ürünlHUL WLFDUHWLQGH NDUúÕODúÕODQ ]RUOXNODUÕQ LQFHOenmesi için bir müzakere grubu NXUXOPXúWXU %X P]DNHUHJUXEXGRNX]JHOLúPLúONHLOHELUOLNWHDUDODUÕQGD 7UNL\H¶QLQ GH \HU DOGÕ÷Õ JHOLúPHNWH RODQ ONHOHU DUDVÕQGD  $UDOÕN ¶WH LP]DODQDQ8OXVODUDUDVÕ7HNVWLO7LFDUHWLQH'DLU$QODúPD\ÕKD]ÕUODPÕúWÕU%XDQODúPD ¶WH \UUO÷H JLUPLú YH \D\JÕQ RODUDN 0)$ 0XOWL-Fibre Arrangment) DGÕ\OD bilinmektedir.18

0)$ *$77 LoLQGH \DSÕOPÕú WHNVWLO VHNW|UQH |]J ELU DQODúPDGÕU YH VLVWHP HVDV LWLEDUL\OH ELU J|QOO LKUDFDW NÕVÕWODPDVÕGÕU 6|] NRQXVX PDOODUÕ LKUDo HGHQ |QHPOL ONHOHU LOH |QHPOL DOÕFÕODU DUDVÕQGD NRWDODU EHOLUOHQPHNWH YH PDOODUÕ LKUDoHGHQ ONHOHU NHQGLDU]XODUÕLOHEX NRWDODUD X\PDNGXUXPXQGDNDOPDNWDGÕUODU $U] \|QQGHQ ONHOHU DUDVÕQGD D\UÕP \DSÕOPDVÕQD LPNDQ VD÷OD\DQ EX VLVWHP DQODúPDQÕQ HQ oRN ND\UÕODQ ONH LONHVLQH D\NÕUÕGÕU. $\UÕFD XOXVODUDUDVÕ WLFDUHWWH VÕQÕUOD\ÕFÕ HQJHOOHULQ YDUOÕ÷Õ .DUúÕODúWÕUPDOÕ hVWQONOHU .XUDPÕQÕQ LúOHUOL÷LQL de RUWDGDQ NDOGÕUPDNWDGÕU 0)$ oHUoHYHVLQGH JHWLULOHQ NÕVÕWODPDODU, ONHOHU DUDVÕ \ÕOÕQDNDGDUJHoHUOLOL÷LQLNRUXPXúRODQ0)$oRNWDUDIOÕRODUDN imzalanan ve oRNJHQLúELUUQ\HOpazesini kapsayan LONDQODúPDGÕU.

15

Binhan O÷X] 8OXVODUDUDVÕ 7LFDUHWWH .RUXPDFÕOÕ÷ÕQ .DOGÕUÕOPDVÕQÕQ øo YH 'Õú Piyasalarda Türkiye Ekonomisine Muhtemel Etkileri, øVWDQEXO 7LFDUHW 2GDVÕ <D\ÕQÕ <D\ÕQ1R-øVWDQEXOV

16 _{1ÕVIHW8]D\³'H÷LúHQ'Q\D.RúXOODUÕQGD7UNL\H¶GH7HNVWLOYH +D]ÕU*L\LP6HNW|UQQ}

*HOHFH÷L´øNWLVDWøúOHWPHYH)LQDQV, s.229, Mart 2005, s.64

17 _{=L\D $OWXQ\DOGÕ] ³7HNVWLO YH +D]ÕU *L\LP 6HNW|UQGH =RUODVDQ 8OXVODUDUDVÕ 5HNDEHW YH}

Çin Tehdidi”, ø*(0(GHQ%DNÕú<ÕO2FDN-1LVDQ6D\Õ, s.18

18 _{Efser Uytun, Türk Tekstil Sektörü (Suni- 6HQWHWLN<QO+D]ÕU*L\LP'HULYH'HUL}

serbest ticaretin ve rekabetçi ortDPÕQ JHOLúPHVLQL HQJHOOHGL÷L YH ülkelerin LKUDFDWODUÕQÕ NÕVÕWODGÕ÷Õ LoLQ ONHOHU DUDVÕQGD ROPDVÕ JHUHNHQ UHNDEHW RUWDPÕQÕ ]D\ÕIODWPDNWDGÕU. Bu nedenle MFA, GATT prensiplerinden en sert ve maliyetli sapma olarak nitelendirilebilmektedir.19

Uruguay Round Ticaret Müzakereleri sonucunda imzalanan ve 1 Ocak ¶GH \UUO÷H JLUHQ 'Q\D 7LFDUHW gUJW $QODúPDVÕ NDSVDPÕQGD EXOXQDQ TekVWLOYH*L\LP $QODúPDVÕAgreement on Textiles and Clothing-ATC) ile tekstil YH KD]ÕU JL\LP WLFDUHWL *$77 NDSVDPÕQD DOÕQPÕúWÕU

Öte yandan MFA’ya taraf bir ülke olarak Türkiye de ABD, Kanada ve özellikle AB ONHOHULQLQ ELUWDNÕP NRWD |QOHPOHULQH PDUX] NDOPÕúWÕU 7UN SDPXN LSOL÷Lnin, ¶OL \ÕOODUÕQ EDúÕQGD $YUXSD SL\DVDODUÕQÕ LVWLOD HWPHVL YH $YUXSDOÕ LSOLNoLOHUL WHGLUJLQ HWPHVL 7UNL\H¶\L  \ÕOÕQGD WHNVWLOGH ³J|QOO NÕVÕWODPD DQODúPDODUÕ´LOHWDQÕúWÕUPÕúWÕU. %XED÷ODPGDLONEDúWDELUoRNNDWHJRULGHNRWDDUWÕúODUÕ \NVHN ROPDVÕQD NDUúÕQ VRQUDODUÕ GúPH\H EDúODPÕú YH 7UN WHNVWLO LKUDFDWoÕODUÕQÕ ROGXNoD ]RU GXUXPGD EÕUDNPÕúWÕU $QFDN $%  \ÕOÕQD NDGDU NRWD DUWÕúÕ NRQXVXQGD7UNL\H¶\HNDUúÕD\UÕFDOÕNOÕWXWXPXQXNRUXPXúWXU

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*L\LP$QODúPDVÕ$7&

20_{. ATC’nin \UUO÷H JLUPHVL} LOH ELUOLNWH 0)$¶ \D GD\DOÕ RODUDN JHWLULOHQ PLNWDU NÕVÕWODPDODUÕQÕQ  \ÕOÕQGDQ EDúOD\DUDN  \ÕOOÕN JHoLú G|QHPLQGH NDGHPHOL RODUDN VHUEHVWOHúWLULOPHVL YH  \ÕOÕQD NDGDU NDOGÕUÕOPDVÕ |QJ|UOPúWU. $7& EX  \ÕOOÕN JHoLú VUHFLQGH NRWD X\JXOD\DQ ONHOHULQ NRWDODUÕQÕ  NDGHPHGH YH KHU NDGHPHGH DUWDQ RUDQODUGD NDOGÕUPDVÕQÕSODQODPÕúWÕU$7&¶QLQNDGHPHOLJHoLúWDNYLPLnde, \ÕOÕLWKDODWÕQÕQ ¶WH ¶VÕQD ¶GH ¶VLQH ¶GH ¶LQH ¶WH JHUL NDODQ ¶D NDUúÕOÕN JHOHQ UQOHULQ VHUEHVWOHúWLULOPHVL YH JHQHO NRWD E\PH RUDQODUÕQÕQ -DUDVÕQGD- DUDVÕQGD-DUDVÕQGDDUWÕUÕOPDVÕ GúQOPúWU.21

$7&¶QLQ LP]DODQPDVÕ\OD birlikte Türkiye gibi, ATC öncesi AB SL\DVDODUÕQDPLNWDUNÕVÕWODPDODUÕQDWDELROPDNVÕ]ÕQJLUHELOHQONHOHULQNRWDVÕ]WLFDUHW RUWDPÕQGDSL\DVDSD\ODUÕQGD|QHPOLGúúOHU\DúDQDFD÷ÕYH$7&|QFHVLLWKDODWÕSHN oRN UQGH NRWD\D WDEL RODQ ONHOHULQ DUDVÕQGD EXODQDQ dLQ¶LQ LVH $%¶GHNL SL\DVD SD\ÕQÕ oRN |QHPOL ELU PLNWDUGD DUWÕUDFD÷Õ \|QQGH EHNOHQWLOHU ROXúPXúWXU22

19

Rodrik Dani, “Developing Countries After The Uruguay Round”, International Monetary and Financial Issues for the 1990’s, Vol. VI, United Nations Publication, New York, 1995, s.46

20 _{g]JH $\QDJ|] dDNPDN ³$oÕNODQPÕú .DUúÕODúWÕUPDOÕ hVWQONOHU YH 5HNDEHW *F}

7UNL\H 7HNVWLO YH +D]ÕU *L\LP (QGVWULVL h]HULQH %LU 8\JXODPD´ (JH $NDGHPLN %DNÕú Dergisi, Cilt: 5, 6D\Õ-2, 2005, s.66

21

1HúH.DQR÷OXYH(PUDKgQJWDünyada ve Türkiye’de Tekstil-+D]ÕU*L\LP6HNW|UOHUL ve Türkiye’nin Rekabet Gücü, '37øNWLVDGL6HNW|UOHU9H.RRUGLQDV\RQ*HQHO0GUO÷ Ankara, Mart 2003, s.28

22 _{H. Kyvik Nordas, The Global Textile and Clothing Industry post the Agreement on}

Textiles and Clothing, World Trade Organization Discussion Paper, 2004, s.27-28

. Bu beklentilere paralel olarak Çin, '7g \HOL÷LQLQ EDúODPDVÕ\OD ELUOLNWH pazar SD\ÕQÕ

JLGHUHNDUWÕUPÕúYHSHNoRNONHLoLQWHKGLWXQVXUXROPD\DEDúODPÕúWÕU.23

\ÕOÕQGDNRWDODUÕQNDONPDVÕ\ODSD]DUDJLULúLQVHUEHVWOHúWLULOPHVLQLQHVDV DOÕQGÕ÷Õ WLFDUHW NRúXOODUÕ VHNW|UGHNL \R÷XQ UHNDEHWLQ NRUXPDFÕOÕN H÷LOLPOHULQL GH beraberinde getirmesiyle birlikte pek çok sorunu ortaya oÕNDUPÕúWÕU

Bu durum |]HOOLNOH $%¶\H NRWDVÕ] LKUDFDW \DSDELOPH LPNDQÕQD VDKLS 7UNL\H için önem arz HWPLúWLU

24 _{En fazla} ND\ÕUÕODQONHVWDWVQHVDKLSD]JHOLúPLúONHOHULQED]ÕODUÕQDJHoPLúWHYHULOPLúRODQ gümrükV] LKUDFDW \DSPD D\UÕFDOÕ÷Õ GD WDULIHOHU DúD÷Õ oHNLOLUNHQ HWNLVLQL ND\EHWPLúWLU6XQLRODUDNFR÷UDILVÕQÕUODUGDQDUÕQGÕUÕOPÕúELUGQ\DGDUHNDEHWWLFDUHW DUHQDVÕQDDGÕPDWDQ\HQL\HOHUOHELUOLNWH\R÷XQODúPÕúEXGDUHWLP\HUOHULQLQ\HU GH÷LúWLUPHVLQHYHEXQGDQGROD\ÕGDGDKDNDUPDúÕNSD]DU\DSÕODUÕQD\RODoPÕúWÕU.25

*HOLúPHOHUH 7UN 7HNVWLO 6HNW|U DoÕVÕQGDQ EDNÕOGÕ÷ÕQGD  \ÕOÕQGD NRWDODUÕQ NDONPDVÕ\OD ELUOLNWH UHNDEHW RUWDPÕ GDKD GD DUWPÕúWÕU 7UNL\H GÕú ülkelerden gelen kalitesiz ancak ucuz mallaUÕQ LVWLODVÕQD X÷UDPÕúWÕU hONHPL]GH HQHUMLLúJFKDPPDGGHUHWLPPDOL\HWOHULQLQROGXNoD\NVHNROPDVÕQGDQGROD\Õ WPEXXQVXUODUÕQPDOL\HWLUQQIL\DWÕQÕHWNLOHPHNWHYHIL\DWEDNÕPÕQGDQUHNDEHW edememe sorununu gündeme getirmektedir

26

Tablo 2: 1990-<ÕOODUÕ$UDVÕ7HNVWLOYH+D]ÕU*L\LP6HNW|U'Õú7LFDUHW Hacmi (ISIC 5HYL]H6ÕQÕIODPDVÕQD*|UH- milyon dolar)

.

Uruguay RounGVRQUDVÕ0)$NDSVDPÕQGDJHWLULOHQPLNWDUNÕVÕWODPDODUÕQÕQ NDOGÕUÕOPDVÕQÕQ7UNWHNVWLOYHKD]ÕUJL\LPVHNW|UGÕúWLFDUHWLQHHWNLOHUL7DEOR¶GH UDNDPODUED]ÕQGDLQFHOHQGL÷LQGH, YH\ÕOODUÕDUDVÕQGDVHNW|UQG]HQOLELU GÕú WLFDUHW SHUIRUPDQVÕ VHUJLOHGL÷L YH PLNWDU NÕVÕWODPDODUÕQÕQ NDOGÕUÕOPDVÕQGDQ etkilHQPHGL÷LJ|UOPHNWHGLU6HNW|U 1994, 2001 ve 2009 mali kriz dönemlerinde de E\NGúúOHU\DúDPDPÕúWÕU

<ÕOODU øKUDFDW øWKDODW 1HWøKUDFDW

1990 4.659 457 4.202 1991 4.759 448 4.311 1992 5.645 594 5.051 1993 5.808 903 4.905 1994 6.619 1.024 5.595 1995 8.476 1.664 6.813 1996 8.648 2.074 6.574 1997 9.892 2.313 7.579 1998 10.510 2.253 8.257 1999 9.828 1.831 7.996 2000 10.031 2.119 7.912 2001 10.341 1.960 8.381 2002 12.148 2.846 9.302

23

Thomas Rumbaugh and Nicolas Blancher, China: International Trade and WTO Accession, IMF Working Paper, WP/04/36, March 2004, s.11

24

Peter Drysdale and Ligang Song, China's Entry to the WTO: Strategic Issues and Quantitative Assessments, London: Routledge, 2000, p.175.

25

+HUZLJ 0 6WURO] ³.RWD 6RQUDVÕ '|QHPGH 7HNVWLOGH 5HNDEHW *F <HQL 'XUXP 'H÷HUOHQGLUPHVL´7HNVWLOøúYHUHQ'HUJLVL, Haziran, 2005, s.2

26

0HVXW dDNÕU YH 6HQD (UGHQ ³$\GÕQ øOL 7HNVWLO øúOHWPHOHULQLQ *HQHO <DSÕVÕQÕQ øQFHOHQPHVL´  7UNL\H (NRQRPHWUL YH øVWDWLVWLN .RQJUHVL 24- 0D\ÕV – øQ|Q Üniversitesi, Malatya, 2007 s.16

2003 14.995 3.544 11.451 2004 17.338 4.388 12.950 2005 18.667 4.668 13.999 2006 19.441 5.189 14.252 2007 22.599 6.664 15.925 2008 22.827 6.996 15.831 2009 19.162 6.110 13.052 Kaynak: 7hø.YHULWDEDQÕQGDQDOÕQDQYHULOHUOHROXúWXUXOPXúWXU

gWH \DQGDQ dLQ¶LQ 7UN WHNVWLO YH KD]ÕU JL\LP VHNW|UQH WHKGLW ROXS ROPDGÕ÷Õ- \ÕOODUÕDUDVÕGÕúWLFDUHWJHUoHNOHúPHOHULLOHLQFHOHQPLúWLU7UN Tekstil Sektörünün 1990-GÕúWLFDUHWGH÷HUOHUL AB ve Kuzey Amerika ile olan Tablo 3’de, Çin ile RODQLVH7DEOR¶GHYHULOLúWLU

7DEOR ¶GHNL YHULOHU LQFHOHQGL÷LQGH .X]H\ $PHULND LOH RODQ GÕú WLFDUHWLPL]LQ PLNWDU NÕVÕWODPDODUÕQÕQ NDOGÕUÕOPDVÕQÕQ SODQODQGÕ÷Õ  \ÕOÕQD NDGDU VUHNOLDUWDUDNDUWÕ÷ÕDQFDN\ÕOÕQGDQLWLEDUHQGúúHJHoWL÷LJ|UOPHNWedir. Her QHNDGDU\ÕOÕLWLEDULLOHGÕúWLFDUHWKDFPLGúúHJHoPLúVHGHLWKDODWPDOL NUL]LQLQ HWNLOHULQLQ J|UOPH\H EDúODQGÕ÷Õ  \ÕOÕQD NDGDU DUWÕúÕQD GHYDP HWWLUPLúWLU $QFDN .X]H\ $PHULND hONHOHUL LOH RODQ LKUDFDWÕPÕ]GDNL GúúQ LWKDODWÕPÕ]DQD]DUDQGDKD\NVHNROPDVÕND\JÕYHULFLGLU $\UÕFD7DEOR¶GHQ$% hONHOHUL LOH RODQ WHNVWLO YH KD]ÕU JL\LP GÕú WLFDUHW YHULOHUL LQFHOHQGL÷LQGH JHUHN LKUDFDW JHUHNVH QHW LKUDFDW SHUIRUPDQVÕQÕQ VUHNOL DUWÕú KDOLQGH ROGX÷X görülmektedir.

Tablo 3: 1990-<ÕOODUÕ$UDVÕ7UNL\H-AB 15 ve Kuzey Amerika Ülkeleri 7HNVWLO6HNW|U'Õú7LFDUHW+DFPL,6,&5HYL]H’e Göre- milyon dolar)

<ÕOODU AB 15 Ülkeleri Kuzey Amerika Ülkeleri

øKUDFDW øWKDODW 1HWøKUDFDW øKUDFDW øWKDODW 1HWøKUDFDW

1990 3.624 198 3.426 357 125 232 1991 3.793 191 3.602 307 86 221 1992 4.355 273 4.082 399 79 320 1993 4.215 328 3.887 481 76 405 1994 3.344 328 3.016 726 56 670 1995 5.498 541 4.958 793 173 620 1996 5.724 1.037 4.687 763 121 642 1997 5.963 1.194 4.768 880 310 570 1998 6.526 1.123 5.403 1.037 340 697 1999 6.411 949 5.462 1.162 142 1.021 2000 6.493 1.017 5.476 1.470 316 1.154 2001 6.731 968 5.762 1.415 276 1.139 2002 7.658 1.235 6.423 1.681 331 1.350 2003 9.601 1.399 8.202 1.745 450 1.295 2004 10.905 1.528 9.377 1.801 543 1.258 2005 11.716 1.486 10.229 1.593 603 990 2006 12.196 1.564 10.631 1.337 581 756 2007 14.106 1.735 12.371 1.185 904 281 2008 13.699 1.728 11.971 945 714 231 2009 11.778 1.270 10.508 600 587 13 Kaynak: 7hø.YHULWDEDQÕQGDQDOÕQDQYHULOHUOHROXúWXUXOPXúWXU 'L÷HUWDUDIWDQ7UNL\H¶QLQdLQLOHRODQWHNVWLOYHKD]ÕUJL\LPVHNW|U-\ÕOODUÕDUDVÕGÕúWLFDUHWYHULOHULLQFHOHQGL÷LQGH, EXVHNW|UGHdLQ¶HNDUúÕJLGHUHN DUWDQ GÕú WLFDUHW DoÕ÷Õ YHUGL÷LPL] DQODúÕOPDNWDGÕU g\OH NL LKUDFDW GH÷HUOHULQLQ oRN GúN ROPDVÕ QHGHQL\OH LWKDODW LOH QHW LKUDFDW E\NONOHUL QHUHGH\VH HúGH÷HU oÕNPDNWDGÕU7DEOR¶GHsektörün YH\ÕOODUÕDUDVÕQGDG]HQOLELUGÕúWLFDUHW

SHUIRUPDQVÕ VHUJLOHGL÷L YH PLNWDU NÕVÕWODPDODUÕQÕQ NDOGÕUÕOPDVÕQGDQ SHN ID]OD HWNLOHQPHGL÷LJ|UOPHNWHGLU

Tablo 4: 1990-<ÕOODUÕ$UDVÕ7UNL\H– dLQ7HNVWLO6HNW|U'Õú7LFDUHW +DFPL,6,&5HYL]H6ÕQÕIODPDVÕQD*|UH- $%''RODUÕ

<ÕOODU øKUDFDW øWKDODW Net ihracat

1990 2.081.384 25.309.640 -23.228.256 1991 977.979 28.406.620 -27.428.641 1992 270.840 35.640.965 -35.370.125 1993 108.398 74.258.986 -74.150.588 1994 3.373.081 109.550.833 -106.177.752 1995 966.456 254.673.544 -253.707.088 1996 1.518.843 153.096.401 -151.577.558 1997 1.368.919 168.448.096 -167.079.177 1998 976.858 168.340.640 -167.363.782 1999 3.002.000 165.480.075 -162.478.075 2000 5.203.648 224.020.333 -218.816.685 2001 5.791.421 170.483.818 -164.692.397 2002 8.541.846 227.607.137 -219.065.291 2003 11.020.099 391.698.116 -380.678.017 2004 15.838.391 596.288.485 -580.450.094 2005 19.108.276 756.838.394 -737.730.118 2006 31.557.481 929.306.964 -897.749.483 2007 45.868.742 1.234.812.778 -1.188.944.036 2008 57.141.796 1.319.641.814 -1.262.500.018 2009 68.371.753 1.327.635.676 -1.259.263.923 Kaynak: 7hø.YHULWDEDQÕQGDQDOÕQDQYHULOHUOHROXúWXUXOPXúWXU

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Tablo 5: 2003-<ÕOODUÕ$UDVÕ7UNL\H7HNVWLOYH+D]ÕU*L\LP Sektörü 7RSODP'Õú7LFDUHWLLOH7UNL\H– dLQ7HNVWLOYH+D]ÕU*L\LP6HNW|U'Õú 7LFDUHWLQLQ.DUúÕODúWÕUÕOPDVÕ,6,&5HYL]H6ÕQÕIODPDVÕ-milyon dolar) <ÕOODU 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Türk Tekstil ve +D]ÕU Giyim Sektörü *HQHO'Õú Ticareti øKUDFDW 14.995 17.338 18.667 19.441 22.599 22.827 19.162 øKUDFDW$UWÕúÕ 2.847 2.343 1.329 774 3.158 228 -3.665 øWKDODW 3.544 4.388 4.668 5.189 6.664 6.996 6.110 øWKDODW$UWÕúÕ 698 844 280 521 1.475 332 -886 Türkiye-Çin Tekstil YH+D]ÕU Giyim Sektörü 'Õú Ticareti øKUDFDW 11 16 19 32 46 57 68 øKUDFDW$UWÕúÕ 3 5 3 13 14 11 11 øWKDODW 392 596 757 929 1.235 1.320 1.328 øWKDODW$UWÕúÕ 164 204 161 172 306 85 8 Çin’in øKUDFDWYH øWKDODW øoLQGHNL 3D\Õ øKUDFDW (%) 0,07 0,09 0,10 0,16 0,20 0,24 0,35 øWKDODW (%) 11,06 13,58 16,21 17,90 18,53 18,86 21,73 Çin’in øKUDFDWYH øWKDODW $UWÕúÕQGDNL 3D\Õ øKUDFDW (%) 0,08 0,20 0,24 1,61 0,45 4,91 -0,30 øWKDODW (%) 23,49 24,17 57,50 33,01 20,74 25,48 -0,94 Kaynak: 7hø.YHULWDEDQÕQGDQDOÕQDQYHULOHUOHKHVDSODQPÕúWÕU *|UOG÷JLELdLQ7UNL\H¶QLQ7HNVWLOYH+D]ÕU*L\LP6HNW|ULWKDODWÕQÕQ |QHPOL ELU NÕVPÕQÕ NDUúÕODPDNWDGÕU %X GXUXP dLQ¶ H NDUúÕ GÕú WLFDUHW DoÕ÷Õ YHUPHNWHQGDKD|QHPOLGLUdQNdLQ7HNVWLOYH+D]ÕU*L\LP6HNW|UQH\|QHOLNLo WDOHELNDUúÕODPD\DVR\XQPDNWDGÕU%XGD7HNVWLOYH+D]ÕU*L\LP6HNW|UQQLKUDFDW UDNDPODUÕ DUWDUNHQ VHNW|UGH NUL]LQ \DúDQPDVÕQÕ YH Lo WDOHEL NDUúÕOD\DQ ILUPDODUÕQ NDSDQPDVÕQÕDoÕNODUQLWHOLNWHGLU

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28

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27

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28

Penetration Index – 50$ YH QLVSL WLFDUHW DYDQWDMÕ HQGHNVL 7KH 5HODWLYH 7UDGH Advantage Index – 57$ ROPDN ]HUH o DOWHUQDWLI WDQÕPODPD \DSPÕúWÕU29

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- RXA = (Xij / Xit) / (Xnj / Xnt)

- RMA = (Mij / Mit) / (Mnj / Mnt)

- RTA = RXAij – RMAij

- RC= Ln (RXAij) – Ln (RMAij)

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30

29

Çakmak, a.g.m., s.69

30 _{T. L. Vollrath, “A Theoretical Evaluation of Alternative Trade Intensity Measures of}

Revealed Comparative Advantage”, Weltwirtschafliches Archiv, 127, 1991, s. 276–277 .

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