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Yerel seçimlerde aday imajının seçmen tercihlerine etkisi: İzmir ili için bir uygulama

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vi ABSTRACT

Master Thesis

The Impact of The Candidates Image on The 9RWHU¶V&KRLFH in Local Elections:

A Case of Izmir Province

Nisa AKIN

'RNX](\OO8QLYHUVLW\ Graduate School of Social Sciences Department of Business Administration

Marketing Management Program

Local governments, which are the closest administrative units to the local people, are one of the basic building blocks of democratic values and democratic consciousness. For the local governments to realize their democratic existence, local elections are the most important tools. When compared with the general elections, local elections, especially the elections of the mayor, put forward differences in that in the latter the political candidate comes into prominence.

Together with developing and changing World, politics as well has been transforming and gaining a new structure. The interaction and nested linkage of the processes of politics, marketing and communication rendered the notion of image more determinative in politics. Today, the concepts of party, partizanship and ideology which has been traditionally important concerning the voting behavior in the past, have been replaced by the concepts of leader, candidate and image. It is possible to argue that the political candidate and the image of the political candidate have a significant impact on the voting behavior, especially with an evaluation from the perspective of local elections. Accordingly, the image possessed by the political candidate and its impression from the voters perspective affects the voting behavior of the voters.

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vii It is impossible to determine general characteristics concerning the image of the political candidates. Basic reason for this is that, the criteria FRQFHUQLQJWKHFDQGLGDWH¶VLPDJHSXWIRUZDUGGLIIHUences in line with different locations, time, social order, political culture, ideology and current issues on the agenda. The purpose of this research is to determine the factors of the political FDQGLGDWH¶VLPDJHHIIHFWLYHRQWKHYRWLQJEHKDYLRURIWKHYRWHUVLQø]PLUDQGWR reveal the perceptional differences between the image of the current mayor and the image of the mayor idealized by the voters. For this purpose, with this study, SHUFHSWLRQV RI WKH YRWHUV LQ ø]PLU ZLWK UHJDUGV WR WKH LPDJH RI SROLWLFDO candidate has been investigated and it has been tried to put forward the extent WRZKLFKWKHHIIHFWVRISROLWLFDOFDQGLGDWH¶VLPDJHKDYHEHHQGHWHUPLQDWLYHRYHU WKHYRWLQJEHKDYLRU7RWKLVHQGWKHSROLWLFDOLPDJHRIø]PLU¶V0D\RUMr. Aziz .RFDR÷OX has been observed from the perspective of the voters, with reference WRWKHORFDOHOHFWLRQVKHOGLQø]PLULQ,QWKHUHVHDUFKWKHSROLWLFDOLPDJHRI the actual Mayor and the political image of the Mayor idealized by voters in ø]PLUKDYHEHHQHYDOXDWHGRQpersonal, ideological and thematic basis.

Keywords: Local Elections, Elections of the Mayor, Voter, Candidate Image, Elections, Political Communication, Voting Behavior

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6L\DVDO GDYUDQÕú VDGHFH ELUH\LQ VRV\R-NOWUHO HNRQRPLN YH NLúLVHO niteliklerinin bir UQ RODUDN GúQOHPH] 6L\DVDO GDYUDQÕúÕ LoLQGH EXOXQXODQ WRSOXPXQ\DSÕVÕYHVL\DVDONRúXOODUÕ da etkiler (Tekin, 2009: 4). Dar anlamda siyasal GDYUDQÕú VHoPHQ SHUVSHNWLILQGHQ R\ YHUPH GDYUDQÕúÕ úHNOLQGH |QJ|UOVH GH JHQLú DoÕGDQ EDNÕOGÕ÷ÕQGD VL\DVDO GDYUDQÕúÕ VDGHFH R\ YHUPH DoÕVÕQGDQ GH÷HUOHQGLUPHN

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8 LPNkQVÕ]GÕU. Bu nedenle, |QFHOLNOH VL\DVDO GDYUDQÕú ELoLPOHULQL DoÕNODPDN ID\GDOÕ RODFDNWÕU <XNDUÕGD \DSÕODQ VL\DVDO GDYUDQÕú WDQÕPODUÕQD J|UH VL\DVDO GDYUDQÕú ELoLPOHULQLúXúHNLOGH|]HWOHPHNPPNQRODFDNWÕU $YúDU 10):

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d. 7DUWÕúPDODUD NDWÕOÕP KDEHU ND\QDNODUÕQÕ L]OHPH YH VL\DVHWOH LOJLOHQPH VRQXFXVL\DVLJ|UúVDKLELROPD

e. Oy verme.

%XDoÕODUGDQGH÷HUOHQGLULOGL÷LQGHVL\DVDOGDYUDQÕúLoLQGHELUVL\DVDONDWÕOPD úHNOL RODUDN ³oy verme´ VHoPHQOHU WDUDIÕQGDQ HQ oRN WHUFLK HGLOHQ YH NXOODQÕODQ NDWÕOÕP úHNOLGLU %XQXQ QHGHQL R\ YHUPH GDYUDQÕúÕQÕQ VL\DVDO NDWÕOÕPÕQ VRPXW ELU |÷HVLROPDVÕQGDQND\QDNODQPDNWDGÕUBu nedenle, VHoPHQGDYUDQÕúODUÕQÕDoÕNODUNHQ, VL\DVDONDWÕOPDNDYUDPÕQD da GH÷LQPHN\HULQGHRODFDNWÕU

1.2. 6ø<$6$/.$7,/0$

6HoPHQ VL\DVDO GDYUDQÕúÕQÕQ HQ |QHPOL NDUDU YHUPH VUHFL, VHoPHQOHULQ R\ NXOODQÕS NXOODQPD\DFD÷Õ NDUDUÕQÕ YHUPHVL H÷HU NXOODQDFDNVD EX R\XQX QH \|QGH NXOODQDFD÷ÕQÕEHOLUOHPHVLLOHEDúODU%XDoÕGDQGH÷HUOHQGLULOGL÷LQGHViyasal katÕOPD, basit bir meraktan \R÷XQ bir eyleme kadar uzanan JHQLú ELU IDDOL\HW DODQÕQÕ NDSVDU (Kapani, 2000: 130). 2\ YHUPH LVH VL\DVDO NDWÕOÕPÕQ HQ NODVLN YH ELOLQHQ úHNOLGLU Oysa siyasal liderlik mevkilerine gelecek olan NLúLOHULQ VHoLOPHVLQGHQ RQODUÕQ DODFD÷ÕYH\DDOPDNWDROGXNODUÕ kararODUÕn ELoLPOHQPHVLQHNDGDUELUoRNH\OHPVL\DVDO NDWÕlma olarak kabul edilir (KalaycÕR÷OX, 1983: 201).

Siyasi katÕOÕPGHPRNUDWLN\|QHWLPOHUGHJHUoHNDQODPÕQÕ bulan ve genellikle bu sistemlerin ortaya oÕNDUGÕ÷Õ siyasal davranÕúODUOD LOJLOL ELU NDYUDPGÕU <DWNÕQ 2001: 40). %XQHGHQOHVHoPHQOHULQNDUDUVUHFLYHR\YHUPHGDYUDQÕúÕE\N|OoGH VL\DVDONDWÕOÕPLoHULVLQGHGH÷HUOHQGLULOPHNWHGLU6HoPHQVL\DVDONDWÕOPDGDYUDQÕúÕKHU VL\DVDO VLVWHPGH IDUNOÕOÕN J|VWHUPHNWHGLU %XQXQ HQ WHPHO QHGHQL VHoPHQLQ NLúLVHO

(25)

9 VRV\RNOWUHO HNRQRPLN YE IDNW|UOHUGHQ HWNLOHQPHVL ROGX÷X NDGDU VL\DVDO VLVWHPOHULQ JHWLUGL÷L KXNXNL NÕVÕWODPDODUÕQ ve siyasal tarihin de VL\DVDO NDWÕOPD G]H\LQL HWNLOHGL÷L V|\OHQHELOLU Nitekim /LSVHW  ¶H J|UH R\ YHUPH QHGHQOHUL IDUNOÕJUXSODUDYHG|QHPOHUHJ|UHIDUNOÕOÕNJ|VWHUPHNWHGLU (188). Bunlar VÕUDVÕ\ODúX úHNLOGHGLU:

1. *UXEXQ oÕNDUODUÕ KNPHW SROLWLNDVÕQGDQ oRN HWNLOHQL\RUVD NDWÕOPD H÷LOLPL\NVHNRODFDNWÕU%XHWNLOHQPHGXUXPXoHúLWOLúHNLOOHUGHRODELOLU NLúL LúL JHUH÷L KNPHWLQ X\JXOD\DELOHFH÷L SROLWLNDODUGDQ HWNLOHQHELOLU KNPHWLQ \|QHWLPLQGH ELU PHPXU RODELOLU YH\D PRUDO YH GLQL GH÷HUOHU DoÕVÕQGDQHWNLOHQPH\HDoÕNWÕU

2. *UXS VL\DVDO NDUDUODUÕQ NHQGL oÕNDUODUÕ LOH RODQ LOLúNLVL KDNNÕQGD KDEHU DOPDRODQDNODUÕQDVDKLSLVHNDWÕOPDRUDQÕ\NVHNRODFDNWÕU

3. Kiúiler oy kullanmasÕnÕ talep eden sosyal baskÕlar altÕndaysa, oy kullanma olasÕlÕ÷Õ \NVHNRODFDNWÕr. BaskÕODU\HVLROXQDQ|UJWOHUGHQDUNDGDú ve meslektaúoHYUHVLQGHQYH\DGL÷er sosyal iliúkilerden gelebilir.

4. FarklÕ siyasal partilere oy verme baskÕsÕ altÕnda olmayan kiúilerin, oy kullanma e÷LOLPL \NVHN RODFDNWÕU dDSUD] EDVNÕlara maruz olanlar yani, farklÕ \|QOHUGHQ VL\DVDO etki altÕQGD NDODQODU YH oRN VD\Õda grupla |]GHúmiú RODQODUJHQHOOLNOHoHNLPVHUGLUOHU (Torlak ve Polat, 2006: 152).

6L\DVDO NDWÕOÕP VL\DVDO VLVWHP LoLQGH \XUWWDúODUÕQ GR÷UXGDQ \D GD GROD\OÕ ELoLPGH \|QHWLFLOHULQ VHoLPLQL YH NDUDUODUÕQÕ HWNLOHPH\L DPDoOD\DQ H\OHPOHULQ EWQGU dDP   . %LU EDúND WDQÕPD J|UH VL\DVDO NDWÕOPD YDWDQGDúODUÕQ PHUNH]LYH\D\|UHVHOGHYOHWRUJDQODUÕQÕQYH\DSHUVRQHOLQL\DKXWNDUDUODUÕQÕHWNLOHPHN ]HUH NHQGLOHULQFH \D GD EDúNDODUÕQFD WDVDUODQPÕú KXNXNL YH\D KXNXN GÕúÕ EDúDUÕOÕ YH\DEDúDUÕVÕ]H\OHPOHUHJLULúPHOHULGLU g]EXGXQ  %XDoÕGDQEDNÕOGÕ÷ÕQGD R\ YHUPH GDYUDQÕúÕ ELU VHoPHQLQ VL\DVDO \DúDPD NDWÕOÕPÕQÕQ HQ oRN NXOODQÕODQ \|QWHPLRODUDNWDQÕPODQDELOLU 6L\DVDONDWÕOÕPODLOJLOLWDQÕPODUEXQHGHQOHVHoPHQLQ R\YHUPHGDYUDQÕúÕQÕ\DGDVL\DVDOGDYUDQÕúNDYUDPÕQÕWDQÕPODUNHQVÕNOÕNODNDUúÕPÕ]D

(26)

10 oÕNPDNWDGÕU Siyasal katÕlÕm kavramÕ ]HULQGH PúWHUHN ELU WDQÕPD XODúÕlmÕú olmamakla beraber genel bir ifadeyle siyasal katÕlÕP WRSOXP \HVL NLúLOHULQ YDWDQGDúODUÕQ  VL\DVDO VLVWHP LoLQGH WRSOXPVDO G]HQLQ NXUXOXúX \|QHWLPL YH GHQHWLPLQH LOLúNLQ SROLWLNDODUÕnÕn saptanmasÕ, kararlarÕn alÕnmasÕ KNPHW yetkililerinin VHoLPLQLYH\DSWÕklarÕ LúOHULGR÷UXGDQYH\DGROD\OÕ RODUDNHWNLOHPHNLoLQ JLULúWLNOHUL\DVDOH\OHPOHUGLU $YúDU  Bu nedenle, VL\DVDONDWÕOÕPÕ\DOQÕ]FD VHoPHQOHULQ VHoLPOHUGH R\ NXOODQPDVÕ GDYUDQÕúÕ úHNOLQGH DoÕNODPDN \HWHUVL] RODFDNWÕU $\QÕ úHNLOGH VL\DVDO NDWÕOÕPÕ GD VDGHFH VL\DVDO GDYUDQÕú LOH NÕVÕWOÕ GúQPHPHN JHUHNLU %X sebeple R\ YHUPH GDYUDQÕúÕQÕQ VL\DVDO NDWÕOÕPÕQ J|UQHQ \] ROGX÷XQX NDEXO HWPHN JHUHNPHNWHGLU 2\ YHUPH GÕúÕQGD VHoPHQ, siyasal SDUWLOHUGH IDDOL\HW J|VWHUHUHN VL\DVL WDUWÕúPDODU LoHULVLQGH EXOXQDUDN \D GD VL\DVDO NDPSDQ\D YH SURSDJDQGDODUGD J|UHY DODUDN GD VL\DVDO NDWÕOÕP GDYUDQÕúÕQÕ sergileyebilir.

6L\DVDO NDWÕOÕP oR÷XOFX GHPRNUDVLOHULQ |QHPOL ELU IRQNVL\RQXGXU dQN demokratik sistemlerde siyasal partiler ve liderler VHoLPOH Lú EDúÕQD JHOPHNWHGLUOHU %XQHGHQOHLVWHUDNWLILVWHUSDVLIROVXQKHUVHoPHQVL\DVDO\DúDPDELUúHNLOGHNDWÕOÕP J|VWHUPHN GXUXPXQGDGÕU 6HoPHQ DQFDN EX úHNLOGH GHYOHWLQ ELU YDWDQGDúÕ ROGX÷X bilincine varacak ve siyasal WDWPLQ VUHFLQH JLUHELOHcektir. Oy verme sadece bu VUHFLQ ELU NÕVPÕQÕ ROXúWXUPDNWDGÕU Siyasal katÕOPD ELoLPOHULQGHQ VHoLPOHUGH R\ kullanma, en sÕk JHUoHNOHúWLULOHQELUYDWDQGDúH÷LOLPLGXUXPXQGDGÕUYHGL÷HUVL\DVDO katÕlma yollarÕndan farklÕ RODUDN ID]OD ELU JD\UHW JHUHNWLUPH\HQ ELU |]HOOLN ROXS GHPRNUDWLN \|QHWLPOHUGH ONH YDWDQGDúODUÕnÕQ KHSVLQH HúLW RODUDN WDQÕnmÕú bir etkinliktir (Norman ve Werba, 1989: 13). %X DPDoOD VHoPHQOHU J|Uú YH LGHRORMLOHULQH\DNÕQEXOGXNODUÕLPDMÕQÕYHSURJUDPODUÕQÕGHVWHNOHGLNOHULVL\DVDOSDUWL YH DGD\ODUD R\ YHUHUHN RQODUÕ LNWLGDUD JHWLUPHNWHGLUOHU g]WHNLQ¶H J|UH DNWDUDQ Tekin, 2009: 8-9), bLUH\OHULQ VL\DVHWH NDWÕOPD ELoLPOHULQL \HGL JUXED D\ÕUDELOLUL] Bunlar VÕUDVÕ\ODúXúHNLOGHGLU:

1. 3ROLWLNDFÕODUODLOLúNiler kurma: %LUH\OHULQVL\DVDOVLVWHPGHJ|UHYOLNLúLOHUOH VL\DVL SDUWLOHULQ OLGHU NDGURVX LO YH LOoH \|QHWLFLOHUL YH \HUHO \|QHWLFLOHUOH YDWDQGDúODUÕQ PHQIDDWL LoLQ GR÷UXGDQ YH GROD\OÕ LOLúNLOHUL ELU VL\DVDO NDWÕOPDGÕU

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11 2. 6HoLPOHUGH R\ NXOODQPD YH VL\DVL SDUWLOHU LoLQ oDOÕúPD (Q JHQHO NDWÕOPD úHNOLGLU%LUH\R\YHUGL÷LGQ\DJ|UúQVDYXQGX÷XSURJUDPÕQÕEH÷HQGL÷L VL\DVL SDUWLQLQ R\ DOPDVÕ YH VHoLPL ND]DQPDVÕ LoLQ SDUWLQLQ VHoLP NDPSDQ\DODUÕQGD oDOÕúDELOLU gUQH÷LQ NLúL SURSDJDQGD \DSPD NDQDDW |QGHUOL÷L \DSPD \D\ÕQ YH EDVÕQ \ROX\OD UHNOkPÕQÕ \DSPD \D GD DILú YH pankart asma gibi faaliyetlerde bulunabilir.

3. SL\DVDO OLWHUDWU L]OHPH øQVDQODUÕQ NHQGL oHYUHOHUL ONHVL YH GQ\DGDNL WRSOXPVDO VRUXQODUOD LOJLOHQPHVL GH ELU VL\DVDO NDWÕOPDGÕU 6L\DVDO ROD\ODUÕ WDNLSHGHQELUH\LQGQ\D\DYHROD\ODUDEDNÕúDoÕVÕJHOLúLU

4. 6L\DVDO WDUWÕúPDODUD NDWÕOPD %LUH\ NHQGL DLOHVL LoLQGH EXOXQGX÷X oHYUHGH YH \HVL ROGXNODUÕ PHVOHNL |UJWOHUGHNL ONH YH GQ\DGDNL JQFHO VL\DVDO HNRQRPLN YH WRSOXPVDO ROD\ODUÕ WDUWÕúÕU <DOQÕ] VL\DVDO WDUWÕúPDODUD NDWÕODELOPHN LoLQ GH EHOLUOL G]H\GH VL\DVDO YH WRSOXPVDO ELOJL ELULNLPL ROPDOÕGÕU

5. 6L\DVDO|UJWOHUH\HROPD 6L\DVDONDWÕOPDQÕQHQLOHULúHNOLROD\ODUÕQLoLQH NDUÕúDUDN\DSÕODQGÕU6L\DVDONDWÕOPDQÕQR\YHUPHGDYUDQÕúÕQdan sonra ikinci HWNLOL\ROXVL\DVLSDUWLGHUQHNYHVHQGLNDJLEL|UJWOHUH\HROPDNWÕU6L\DVL |UJWOHUH \H RODUDN VL\DVHWH NDWÕODQODU |UJWQ YHUGL÷L J|UHYOHUL \DSDUDN VL\DVDOYHWRSOXPVDOROD\ODUDGDKDDNWLINDWÕOÕUODU

6. 6L\DVDOH\OHPOHUHNDWÕOPD 6L\DVDONDWÕOPDQÕQELUWUGHLQVDQODUÕQWHNYH\D WRSOX RODUDN KHU WUO PLWLQJ J|VWHUL JUHY JLEL VL\DVDO H\OHPH NDWÕOPDVÕGÕU 6L\DVDO H\OHPOHUH NDWÕOPD JHQHOOLNOH |UJWOHULQ GHVWH÷L YH WRSOX NDWÕOÕP LOH HWNLOL ROXU gUJWO RODUDN \DSÕODQ VL\DVDO H\OHPOHUOH NDPXR\X ROXúWXUXS VL\DVDO VLVWHPH EDVNÕ \DSDUDN VRUXQODU GDKD NROD\ YH GDKD HWNLOL RODUDN o|]POHQHELOLU

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12 7. %D÷ÕúWD EXOXQPD *HQHOOLNOH YDUOÕNOÕ NLúLOHUH |]J ELU VL\DVDO NDWÕOPD WUGU *QP]GH VL\DVL SDUWLOHULQ VHVLQL GX\XUPDN SURSDJDQGDVÕQÕ \DSPDNLoLQQDNGLGHVWH÷HLKWL\DFÕYDUGÕU%D÷ÕúWDEXOXQPDGDVL\DVLSDUWLOHU LoLQoRN|QHPOLGLU

7P EXQODU J|] |QQH DOÕQGÕ÷ÕQGD R\ NXOODQPD GDYUDQÕúÕQÕQ siyasal NDWÕOPDQÕQVDGHFHELUER\XWXQXROXúWXUGX÷XQXV|\OH\HELOLUL]%LUH\LQVL\DVDO\DúDPD NDWÕOPD G]H\LQLQ \DúDGÕ÷Õ WRSOXPGDQ VRV\DO YH NOWUHO IDNW|UOHUGHQ ONHQLQ YH GQ\DQÕQ LoLQGH EXOXQGX÷X HNRQRPLN NRúXOODUGDQ JHoLULOHQ WDULKVHO VUHoWHQ YH VHoPHQLQ NLúLVHO |]HOOLNOHULQGHQ HWNLOHQGL÷LQL GDKD |QFH V|\OHPLúWLN %XQD J|UH VL\DVDO NDWÕOÕPÕQ WRSOXPGDQ WRSOXPD YH ELUH\GHQ ELUH\H GH÷LúWL÷LQL V|\OH\HELOLUL] $QFDN WP EX GH÷LúLPOHUH NDUúÕQ GHPRNUDWLN VLVWHPL EHQLPVH\Hn toplumlarda VL\DVDO NDWÕOÕP ELoLPOHULQLQ ELUNDo ER\XWX\OD ELUOLNWH LúOHGL÷LQL J|VWHUHQ oDOÕúPDODU PHYFXWWXU %XQODU LoLQGH HQ oRN NXOODQÕODQ \|QWHP LVH R\ NXOODQPD GDYUDQÕúÕGÕU g]EXGXQ  ¶HJ|UH VL\DVDONDWÕOPDYDWDQGDúODUÕQPHUNH]LYH\D \|UHVHOGHYOHW RUJDQODUÕQÕQ SHUVRQHOLQL \DKXW NDUDUODUÕQÕ HWNLOHPHN ]HUH NHQGLOHULQFH \D GD EDúNDODUÕQFD WDVDUODQPÕú KXNXNL YH\D KXNXN GÕúÕ EDúDUÕOÕ YH\D EDúDUÕVÕ] H\OHPOHUH JLULúPHOHUL RODUDN WDQÕPODQPDNWDGÕU   %X DQODPGD VL\DVDO NDWÕOPDQÕQ \D\JÕQ RODUDNNXOODQÕODQX\JXODPDELoLPLQLQR\NXOODQPDROGX÷XV|\OHQHELOLU'HPRNUDWLN WRSOXPODUGD ELUH\OHU VL\DVDO WHUFLKOHULQL |QFHOLNOH R\ YHUPH GDYUDQÕúODUÕ\OD RUWD\D NR\PDNWDGÕUODU Bu nedenledir ki; R\ YHUPH GDYUDQÕúÕ VL\DVDO DUDúWÕUPDODUGD VÕNoD J|]OHPYHDUDúWÕUPDNRQXVX\DSÕODQELUVL\DVDO NDWÕOÕPWUKDOLQHJHOPLúWLU

øQVDQODUÕ Viyasal \DúDPD NDWÕOPD\D sevk eden nedenlerle LOJLOL RODUDN G|UW XQVXUXQYDUOÕ÷ÕQGDQV|]HGLOHELOLU g]EXGXQ %XXQVXUODUDúD÷ÕGDNLJLELGLU:

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4. Psikolojik tatminsizliklerin ikamesi 5. øWLEDUJ|UPHWDNGLUHGLOPHLKWL\DFÕ

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1.3. 6(d0(1'$95$1,ù,

6HoPHQGDYUDQÕúÕQÕQELUWRSOXPXQVL\DVDO\|QHWLPL]HULQGHQDVÕOELU|QHPH ve etkiye sahip oldu÷XQX DQOD\DELOPHN LoLQ EX GDYUDQÕúÕ JHUoHNOHúWLUHQ VHoLP ROD\ÕQÕQHQ|QHPOLREMHVLQLWHOL÷LQGHNLVHoPHQLQVHoPHQRODUDNNLPOL÷inin ve ortaya koydu÷XVL\DVDOWHUFLKLQLQWDQÕPODQPDVÕJHUHNPHNWHGLU (Eke, 2008: 11). 6HoPHQOHU LoLQ VL\DVDO GXUXP YH ROJXODU NDUúÕVÕQGD WHSNL J|VWHUPH ELU GDYUDQÕú YH WXWXP

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14 EHOLUWLVLGLU %X DoÕGDQ EDNÕOGÕ÷ÕQGD GD R\ YHUPH GDYUDQÕúÕ VHoPHQLQ NDUDU YHUPH VUHFLQLQoÕNWÕVÕQÕROXúWXUXU

6HoPHQ GDYUDQÕúÕ VHoPHQOHULQ VL\DVDO VRV\DO NLúLVHO YH HNRQRPLN JG YH GUWOHUOH VDKLS ROGX÷X LGHRORMLN \|QHOLPOHULQ ELU ELUOHúLPL RODUDN NDUúÕPÕ]D oÕNDU 'ROD\ÕVÕ\OD VHoPHQ GDYUDQÕúÕ, ELUH\LQ NHQGL WHUFLKL ROGX÷X NDGDU LoLQGH EXOXQGX÷X VL\DVDOVRV\DOYHHNRQRPLNVLVWHPLQGHRUWD\DoÕNDUGÕ÷ÕELUWXWXPODUEWQGUBu QHGHQOH VL\DVDO SD]DUODPD \|QHWLPLQGH YH VL\DVDO LOHWLúLP SODQODPDVÕQGD VHoPHQOHULQ LVWHN LKWL\Do DU]X YH EHNOHQWLOHULQLQ QHOHU ROGX÷XQXQ VDSWDQPDVÕ YH RQODUÕQVL\DVDOWHUFLKOHULQLHWNLOH\HQIDNW|UOHULQEHOLUOHQPHVL|QHPDU]HWPHNWHGLUBu DoÕGDQ GH÷HUOHQGLULOGL÷LQGH VL\DVDO SD]DUODPDQÕQ WHPHO oÕNÕú QRNWDVÕQÕ VHoPHQ GDYUDQÕúÕ YH VHoPHQ WXWXPODUÕ ROXúWXUPDNWDGÕU 6HoPHQOHULQ WHUFLKOHULQH HWNL HGHQ etmenlerin belirlenmHVL YH EX HWPHQOHULQ VHoPHQ VL\DVDO GDYUDQÕúÕQÕ \|QOHQGLUHFHN úHNLOGHPRWLYHHGLOPHVLVL\DVDOSD]DUODPDQÕQDQDNRQXVXQXROXúWXUPDNWDGÕU1DVÕONL WLFDUL PDO YH KL]PHWOHULQ SD]DUODQPDVÕQGD WNHWLFL GDYUDQÕúODUÕQÕ LVWHN YH LKWL\DoODUÕQÕ DQODPDN SD]DUODPD NDUPDVÕQÕ ROXúWXUPDQÕQ ELULQFLO NRúXOX LVH VL\DVDO SD]DUODPDGD GD VHoPHQ GDYUDQÕú YH WXWXPODUÕQÕ NDYUDPDN |QFHOLNOL ELU |QHPH sahiptir.

0DO YH KL]PHW SD]DUODPDVÕQGD WNHWLFLOHUL oHNPHN YH RQODUÕ \|QOHQGLUPHN LoLQ WNHWLFL GDYUDQÕúODUÕQÕ DQODPDN YH NDYUDPDN E\N |QHP WDúÕU 6L\DVHW SD]DUODPDVÕQGDGDVHoPHQOHULQLVWHNLKWL\DoDU]XYHEHNOHQWLOHULWDWPLQHGLOHFH÷LQH J|UHRQODUÕQVL\DVLWHUFLKOHULQLQHOHUHJ|UHQDVÕO\DSWÕNODUÕGDELOLQPHOLGLU øVODPR÷OX    %|\OHFH VHoPHQOHULQ R\ YHUPH GDYUDQÕúÕQD HWNL HGHQ HWPHQOHU WDQÕPODQDUDNVL\DVDOSD]DUODPDELOHúHQOHUL JHOLúWLULOHELOHFHNYHVHoPHQGDYUDQÕúODUÕ \|QOHQGLULOHELOHFHNWLU %X QHGHQOH VL\DVHW SD]DUODPDVÕQGD VHoPHQ GDYUDQÕúODUÕQÕQ ROXúXPX YH EX ROXúXP ]HULQGH HWNLOL RODQ IDNW|UOHU KDNNÕQGD OLWHUDWUGH VD\ÕVÕ] \D\ÕQDUDVWODPDNPPNQGU6HoPHQGDYUDQÕúODUÕLOHWNHWLFLGDYUDQÕúODUÕDUDVÕQGD \XNDUÕGD EHOLUWWL÷LPL] EHQ]HUOLNOHULQ GÕúÕQGD ELU WDNÕP IDUNOÕOÕNODUÕQ GD ROGX÷XQX V|\OH\HELOLUL] øVODPR÷OX  ¶QD J|UH EX EHQ]HUOLN YH IDUNOÕOÕNODU DúD÷ÕGDNL úHNLOGHVÕUDODQDELOLU  

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15 Tablo 1: 6HoPHQ'DYUDQÕúODUÕQÕQ7NHWLFL'DYUDQÕúODUÕQD*|UHBenzerlikleri YH)DUNOÕOÕNODUÕ

)DUNOÕOÕNODU Benzerlikler

6HoLPOHUGHNL DOWHUQDWLIOHU VHoHQHNOHU  GH÷LúLN QHGHQOHUGHQ |WU PDO YH KL]PHWOHUGHNLOHUGHQD]GÕU

6HoPHQOHU GH VL\DVHWWHQ KL]PHW beklemektedirler.

6HoLPOHUGHNL ULVNL YH IL\DWÕ DOJÕODPDN YHGH÷HUOHQGLUPHN]RUGXU

6HoPHQOHULQ |GHGLNOHUL IL\DW NDWODQGÕNODUÕ YHUJLOHU YH VDWÕQ DOGÕNODUÕ hizmetlerin maliyetidir.

6L\DVL UQOHUL YH EXQODUÕQ SHUIRUPDQVODUÕQÕ PDOODUGD ROGX÷X JLEL VRPXW NULWHUOHUH GD\DOÕ RODUDN NDUúÕODúWÕUPDNVRQGHUHFH]RUGXU

6HoPHQOHULQ WHUFLKOHULQGH GH |OoOHELOLr IDNW|UOHUUROR\QDPDNWDGÕU

6HoLPNDUDUÕVRQ JQGH YHoRNNÕVDELU VUHGHYHULOPHNWHGLU

6HoPHQ GH \DSWÕ÷Õ WHUFLKLQ VRQXoODUÕQÕ GH÷HUOHQGLULUYHPHPQXQROXSROPDGÕ÷ÕQD karar verir.

6HoPHQ GH QLVSL ELU ELOJL DOWÕQGD NDUDU YHULU YH JHoPLú GHQH\LPOHUL karar ]HULQGHHWNLOLROXU

.D\QDNøVODPR÷OXV 82¶GHQGHUOHQPLúWLU.

6HoPHQGDYUDQÕúÕNRQXVX\ODLOJLOLLONoDOÕúPDODU¶OX\ÕOODUGDEDúODPÕúYH ¶ODUGDQ LWLEDUHQ GH |]HOOLNOH $%'¶GH \R÷XQOX÷X DUWDUDN GHYDP HWPLúWLU (Kalender, 2005: 38). Converse¶H J|UH (aktaran Kalender, 2005: 39), ilk sistemli DUDúWÕUPDODU¶WH$QGUH6LHJIULHGWDUDIÕQGDQHOOHKD]ÕUODQPÕúoL]HOJHYHWDUDPDOÕ KDULWDODUD GD\DQÕODUDN \DSÕOPÕúWÕU 'DKD VRQUDODUÕ \DSÕODQ oDOÕúPDODUGD VHoPHQ GDYUDQÕúODUÕ oHúLWOL IDNW|UOHUH J|UH DoÕNODQPD\D oDOÕúÕOPÕúVD GD VHoPHQ GDYUDQÕúÕQÕ DoÕNODPD\D\|QHOLNGDYUDQÕúODUÕQJHQHOOLNOHoDQD\DNODúÕP]HULQGH\R÷XQODúWÕ÷ÕQÕ V|\OH\HELOLUL] Bunlar, (a) sosyolojik, (b) psikolojik (partiyle veya adayla

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16 |]GHúOHúPH  F  UDV\RQHO HNRQRPLN  VHoPHQ GDYUDQÕúODUÕ RODUDN NDUúÕPÕ]D oÕNPDNWDGÕU ¶OÕ \ÕOODUGDQ JQP]H VHoPHQ GDYUDQÕúODUÕQÕ DoÕNODPD\D \|QHOLN \DSÕODQ DUDúWÕUPDODUÕQ JHQHOOLNOH EX o DQD \DNODúÕP ]HULQGHQ DoÕNODQPD\D oDOÕúÕOGÕ÷ÕQÕJ|UPHNWH\L].DOHQGHU  ¶HJ|UHGHNRQX\DRODQ\DNODúÕPODUÕoR÷X \D]DUÕQ HOH DOGÕ÷Õ ELoLPGH ³VRV\RORMLN SVLNRORMLN YH UDV\RQHO WHUFLK´ RODUDN VÕQÕIODQGÕUPDNYHLQFHOHPH\HoDOÕúPDNGDKDX\JXQJ|]NPHNWHGLU

dRN SDUWLOL GHPRNUDWLN VHoLP VLVWHPOHULQGH VL\DVDO LNWLGDUÕQ \|QHWHQOHUGHQ oRN \|QHWLOHQOHUOH JHUoHNOHúWL÷LQL V|\OH\HELOPHN PPNQGU %X DoÕGDQ EDNÕOGÕ÷ÕQGD VL\DVHW SD]DUODPDVÕQGD VHoPHQ GDYUDQÕúÕQÕQ |QHPL YH URO E\NWU Bu sebeple, ELU VL\DVDO SDUWLQLQ |QFHOLNOH ONH LQVDQÕQÕQ \DSÕVÕQÕ oRN L\L ELOPHVL KDQJLIDNW|UOHUGHQHWNLOHQHUHNVL\DVDOWHUFLKLQLEHOLUOHGL÷LQLL\LWHVSLWHWPHVLRQODUÕQ NDUDU VUHFLQL GHWD\OÕ ELU DQDOL]H WDEL WXWPDVÕ JHUHNPHNWHGLU .DOHQGHU    <HUHOVHoLPOHUGHGHD\QÕúHNLOGHELUVL\DVLDGD\ÕQVHoPHQOHULHWNLOH\HELOPHNPRWLYH YH LNQD HGHELOPHN LoLQ VHoPHQ NDUDU VUHoOHULQL oRN L\L ELOPHVL YH \|QHWPHVL JHUHNPHNWHGLU%XQHGHQOHONHPL]GHNLoRNSDUWLOLGHPRNUDWLNVHoLPVLVWHPLGHJ|] |QQH DOÕQGÕ÷ÕQGD VL\DVHW SD]DUODPDVÕQÕQ DQD NRQXVXQX VHoPHQLQ R\ YHUPH GDYUDQÕúÕGROD\ÕVÕ\ODVHoPHQNDUDUVUHFLROXúWXUPDNWDGÕUBu da siyasi partilerin ve DGD\ODUÕQ R\ODUÕQD WDOLS ROGXNODUÕ VHoPHQ NLWOHVLQL oRN L\L WDQÕPDODUÕ JHUHNWL÷LQL YH VHoPHQ WDEDQÕQÕQ R\ YHULUNHQ KDQJL IDNW|UOHUGHQ HWNLOHQGLNOHULQL EHOLUOHPHOHUL JHUHNWL÷LQLJ|VWHUPHNWHGLU

6HoPHQOHULQSDUWLSURJUDPYHSURMHOHULQL\|QOHQGLUGL÷LoRNSDUWLOLGHPRNUDWLN VHoLP VLVWHPOHULQGH VHoPHQ WHUFLK PRGHOL |QFHOLNOL RODUDN VHoPHQ GDYUDQÕúÕ YH VHoPHQSURILOLLOHDoÕklanabilir.

6HoPHQ GDYUDQÕúÕQD |]HOOLNOH GH VHoPHQLQ R\ YHUPH GDYUDQÕúÕQD \|QHOLN \DSÕODQoDOÕúPDODUGD\D]DUODUYHDUDúWÕUPDFÕODUVHoPHQOHULQR\YHUPHGDYUDQÕúODUÕQD HWNL HGHQ ELUoRN IDNW|UQ YDUOÕ÷ÕQGDQ V|] HWPLúOHUGLU 1HZPDQ YH 6KHWK  ¶LQ VHoPHQ GDYUDQÕúODUÕ ]HULQGH \DSÕODQ oDOÕúPDODUGDQ oÕNDUGÕ÷Õ VRQXFD J|UH VHoPHQ WHUFLKGDYUDQÕúÕQDHWNLHGHQ ELOHúHQLQ YDUOÕ÷ÕQGDQV|]HGHELOLUL]  %XIDNW|UOHU DúD÷ÕGDNLúHNLOGHJ|VWHULOGL÷LJLEL|]HWOHQHELOPHNWHGLU

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17 ùHNLO: 6HoPHQ'DYUDQÕú Modeli

Kaynak: Newman ve Sheth, 1985, s. 179.

*|UOG÷ ]HUH VHoPHQ WHUFLK GDYUDQÕúÕQD HWNL HGHQ ELUoRN IDNW|U EXOXQPDNWDGÕU 1HZPDQ YH 6KHWK   WDUDIÕQGDQ JHOLúWLULOHQ VHoPHQ WHUFLK GDYUDQÕúÕQÕ DQODPD\D \|QHOLN EX PRGHO DúD÷ÕGD DoÕNODQDQ  ER\XWX LoHUPHNWHGLU (Newman ve Sheth, 1985: 178-179):

1. Konular ve Politikalar: %X ELOHúHQ HNRQRPL SROLWLNDVÕ GÕú SROLWLND VRV\DO SROLWLND YH OLGHUOLN NDUDNWHULVWLNOHUL JLEL G|UW DQD ER\XWX LIDGH HWPHNWHGLU $GD\ÕQ UDV\RQHO YH IRQNVL\RQHO DPDoODUÕQD X\JXQ RODUDN EX ER\XWODUED]ÕQGDVDKLSROGX÷XDOJÕODQDQGH÷HULQLWHPVLOHGHU

2. Duygusal Hisler: 2\ YHUPH GDYUDQÕúÕQÕQ GX\JXVDO ER\XWXQX LIDGH HWPHNWHGLU $GD\ WDUDIÕQGDQ VHoPHQGH X\DQGÕUÕODQ XPXW VRUXPOXOXN \XUWVHYHUOLN JLEL GRNXQDNOÕ YH WHHVVU \NVHN KLVOHUL LIDGH HGHU 6HoPHQLQKLVOHULDGD\ÕQNLúLOL÷LQGHQED÷ÕPVÕ]RODELOLUDGD\ÕQVDYXQGX÷X NRQXODU ]HULQH úHNLOOHQPLú RODELOLU \D GD VHoPHQ DGD\ÕQ NLúLOL÷LQLQ YH NLúLOLN |]HOOLNOHULQLQ IDUNÕQGD RODELOLU DQFDN EXQODUD NDUúÕ KHUKDQJL ELU GX\JXJHOLúWLUPHPLúRODELOLU ^ĞĕŵĞŶ ^Ğĕŝŵ ĂǀƌĂŶŦƔŦ Konular ve Politikalar Duygusal Hisler Aday 7ŵĂũŦ 'ƺŶĐĞů Olaylar <ŝƔŝƐĞů Durumlar Sosyal 7ŵŐĞůĞƌ ŝůŝƔƐĞů Konular

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18 3. $GD\ øPDMÕ $GD\ÕQ NDUDNWHUL RODUDN GúQOHQ EHOLUJLQ NLúLOLN

|]HOOLNOHULQHGD\DOÕDGD\LPDMÕQÕEHOLUWLU

4. *QFHO2OD\ODU .DPSDQ\DVUHVLQFHJHUoHNOHúHQYHVHoPHQLQR\YHUPH WHUFLKLQL ELU EDúND DGD\GDQ \DQD NXOODQPDVÕQD QHGHQ RODQ \HUHO YH\D XOXVODUDUDVÕROD\ODUÕLoHUHQSROLWLNDYHNRQXODUODLOJLOLELUER\XWWXUAday IDUNOÕ GXUXPODUÕ HWNLOH\HQ EX SROLWLNDODU YH NRQXODU NDUúÕVÕQGDNL WDYUÕ\OD ELUID\GD\DGDGH÷HUND]DQÕU

5. %LOLúVHO .RQXODU $GD\ WDUDIÕQGDQ JLGLúDWÕQ GH÷LúLPL RODUDN VXQXODQ \HQL IDUNOÕ ELU úH\  PHUDN ELOJL YH KRúQXWOX÷XQ DOJÕODQDQ WDWPLQLQL ispatlayan sebepleri ifade etmektedir.

6. 6RV\DOøPJHOHU %XELOHúHQDGD\ÕQVHoLPVUHFLQGHGHVWHNOH\LFLVLROPDVÕ PXKWHPHO WP ELULQFLO YH LNLQFLO JUXSODUÕ WHPVLO HWPHNWHGLU Adaylar bu VUHoWHWRSOXPXQGHPRJUDILN \DúFLQVL\HWGLQ VRV\R-ekonomik (gelir, PHVOHN  NOWUHOHWQLN ÕUN \DúDP WDU]Õ  \D GD SROLWLNLGHRORMLN 'HPRNUDW&XPKXUL\HWoL NHVLPOHUL\OHLOLúNLOHULQHJ|UHoHúLWOL pozitif ya GDQHJDWLIV|\OHPOHUJHOLúWLULUOHU

7. .LúLVHO 'XUXPODU 6HoPHQLQ R\XQX DGD\D \D GD EDúND ELU DGD\D YHUPHVLQH VHEHS RODFDN DGD\ÕQ NLúLVHO \DúDPÕ LOH LOJLOL ROD\ODUÕ LIDGH etmektedir. $GD\VHoPHQLQR\YHUPHNDUDUÕ|QFHVLQGHNLúLVHO\DGDDLOH oHYUHVLLOHLOJLOLROD\ODUNDUúÕVÕQGDJ|VWHUGL÷LWXWXPLOH\DUDU \DGDGH÷HU ND]DQÕU

6HoPHQ GDYUDQÕúÕQÕ DoÕNODPD\D \|QHOLN JHOLúWLULOHQ EX PRGHO JQP]GH KDOHQ JHoHUOLOL÷LQL NRUXPDNOD ELUOLNWH KHU WRSOXPGD HúLW G]H\GH JHoHUOLOL÷H VDKLS ROGX÷XQX V|\OHPHN LPNkQVÕ]GÕU 1LWHNLP øVODPR÷OX  ¶QD J|UH EX PRGHOLQL |]HOOLNOH 7UNL\H¶GHNL VHoPHQ GDYUDQÕúODUÕ DoÕVÕQGD ED]Õ HNVLNOHUL ROGX÷X J|]H oDUSPDNWDGÕU   øVODPR÷OX   oDOÕúPDVÕQGD |]HOOLNOH VHoPHQOHULQ UHIHUDQV

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19 DOGÕNODUÕ YH \HVL EXOXQGXNODUÕ VRV\DO JUXSODUÕQ EX PRGHOGH \HU DOPDPDVÕQÕ HOHúWLUPHNWHGLU  

7PEXHOHúWLULOHUÕúÕ÷ÕQGDøVODPR÷OX  VHoPHQNDUDUVUHFLQL\HQLGHQ WDQÕPODPÕú YH EX VUHFH HWNL HGHQ HWPHQOHUL 1HZPDQ YH 6KHWK¶LQ JHOLúWLUGLNOHUL PRGHOÕúÕ÷ÕQGDUHYL]HHWPLúWLU  

ùHNLO: 6HoPHQLQ.DUDU6UHFL

Kaynak: øVODPR÷OX2002, s. 83.

*|UOG÷]HUHøVODPR÷OX  PRGHOLQGHHNRODUDNUHIHUDQVJUXSODUÕQÕQ EHNOHQPH\HQ GXUXPODUÕQ YH VRV\DO LPDMODUÕQ GD VHoPHQ WHUFLKL GDYUDQÕúÕQD HWNL HWWL÷LQL EHOLUWPHNWHGLU   %X IDNW|UOHULQ VHoPHQ R\ YHUPH GDYUDQÕúÕQÕ YH NDUDU VUHFLQL QDVÕO YH QH G]H\GH HWNLOHGL÷LQL DQOD\DELOPHN LoLQ PRGHOGH \HU DODQ ELOHúHQOHULDoÕNODPDN\HULQGHRODFDNWÕU øVODPR÷OX-93).

1. 5DV\RQHO gOoWOHU 5DV\RQHO |OoWOHU VHoPHQOHULQ ELU VL\DVL SDUWLQLQ

VHoLOLSLNWLGDUDJHOPHVLKDOLQGHRQGDQVD÷ODQDFDNRODQHNRQRPLNVRV\Dl, GÕú SROLWLND X\JXODPDODUÕ JLEL UDV\RQHO \DUDU YH EHNOHQWLOHUL LIDGH

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20 HWPHNWHGLU%XEHNOHQWLOHULQNDUúÕODQDFD÷ÕQDGDLUVHoPHQLQLQDQoG]H\L VHoPHQLQ WHUFLKLQL \|QOHQGLUPHGH HWNLOL ROPDNWDGÕU gUQH÷LQ VHoPHQ HNRQRPLNWDEDQOÕXPXWODUEHVOL\RUVDRVHoPHni ekonomik verilerde elde HGLOHELOHFHN RODVÕ EDúDUÕODUD LQDQGÕUPDN JHUHNHFHNWLU \D GD LúVL]OL÷LQ |QOHQPHVLLOHLOJLOLXPXWODUÕEHNOHQWLOHULRODQVHoPHQLoLQGHD\QÕúHNLOGH EX WHPHOGH NXUXODFDN ELU VL\DVDO LOHWLúLP oDOÕúPDVÕ SDUWL\L YH\D DGD\Õ EDúDUÕ\DJ|WUHFHNWLU

5DV\RQHO NULWHUOHUOH LOJLOL |QHULOHULQ IDUNOÕ VHoPHQ JUXSODUÕQD J|UH IDUNOÕDOJÕODQDFDNODUÕYHGH÷HUOHQGLULOHFHNOHULJ|]GHQX]DNWXWXOPDPDOÕGÕU $\UÕFDUDV\RQHONULWHUOHULQ|QHPGHUHFHOHULQLQGHG|QHPGHQG|QHPHYH SDUWLOHU DUDVÕQGDNL EHQ]HUOL÷H YH IDUNOÕOÕ÷D J|UH GH÷LúHELOHFH÷L GH XQXWXOPDPDOÕGÕU%XQHGHQOHUDV\RQHONULWHUOHUGHLOHUOHPHVD÷OD\DELOPHN YHEX\ROODVHoPHQOHULHWNLOH\HELOPHNLoLQEXNULWHUOHULQVHoPHQOHUHJ|UH |QFHOLNVÕUDODUÕQÕYHUDNLSSDUWLOHULQEXNULWHUOHUGHNLEDúDUÕODUÕGHUHFHOHULQL belirleyip, analiz etmek gerekmektedir.

2. SoV\DO øPDM 6HoPHQOHU SDUWLOHUOH RODQ LOLúNLOHULQL SVLNRORMLN VRV\DO YH

SROLWLN VHPEROOHUOH JHUoHNOHúWLULUOHU 6HoPHQOHU LoLQ ELU SDUWLQLQ \D GD DGD\ÕQ EDúDUÕVÕ RQXQ LPDMÕ LOH GR÷UXGDQ LOLúNLOLGLU %X QHGHQOH VDGHFH psikolojik, sadece sosyal ya da sadecH SROLWLN YHULOHUOH LPDM ROXúWXUPDN VHoPHQJ|]QGHSDUWLQLQLPDMÕQÕQ\HWHUVL]NDOPDVÕQDQHGHQRODFDNWÕU%X VHEHSOH ELU VL\DVL SDUWLQLQ VRV\DO LPDMÕQÕ VRV\DO SVLNRORMLN YH SROLWLN WHPDODUELUOLNWHROXúWXUPDNWDGÕU

Her siyasi parti ya da aday, politik faaliyetlerini, ilgilerini, vizyonunu, UQOHULQL VHPEROOHU DUDFÕOÕ÷Õ LOH LPDMD G|QúWUHELOPHOLGLU <DQL KHU lider, aday ya da parti, kendi efsanesini yaratabilmelidir.

6RV\DO LPDM LGHRORMLN HNVHQOL RODELOHFH÷L JLEL VRPXW NLúLVHO EDúDUÕODUD GD\DOÕ EDúNDODUÕ\OD NDUúÕODúWÕUÕOGÕ÷ÕQGD DQODPOÕ IDUNOÕOÕNODU \DUDWDQROD\ODUD\DGDSVLNRORMLNGX\JXODUDGD\DQGÕUÕODELOLU

3. %LOLúVHO 'H÷HUOHU %LU OLGHULQ \D GD DGD\ÕQ VHoLPLQGH HWNLOL RODQ

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21 EDúDUDPD\DFD÷ÕQÕ J|VWHUHQ ELOLúVHO \|QGU %LOLúVHO \|Q \HQLOLN YH G|QúPOHUL\|QHWPHNYL]\RQVDKLELROPDNVRUXQODUÕWHúKLVHGLSo|]PHN DoÕVÕQGDQ GH÷HUOHQGLULOLU (÷HU NL PHYFXW \|QHWLPGHQ WDWPLQ ROXQPDPÕú LVHELOLúVHO\|QVHoPHQWHUFLKOHULQGHNL D÷ÕUOÕ÷ÕQÕDUWÕUÕU

/LGHU LOJLQo DPD X\JXODQDELOLU |UQHN DOÕQDELOLU LQDQGÕUÕFÕ \HQLOLNoL ILNLUYH|QHULOHUOHELOLúVHO\|QQRUWD\DNR\DELOPHOLGLU

4. $GD\ÕQ.LúLOL÷L $GD\\DGDOLGHULQoL]GL÷L\DGDJ|UQWRODUDN\DUDWWÕ÷Õ

NLúLOL÷L VHoPHQ WHUFLKOHULQL HWNLOH\HQ |QHPOL ELU IDNW|UGU $GD\ÕQ NLúLOL÷L GH÷LúLN |÷HOHULQ ELU ELOHúNHVLGLU <DNÕúÕNOÕOÕN J]HO NRQXúPD NDUDUOÕOÕN PXNWHGLU ROPD GUVW ELOJLOL \XUWVHYHU \HQLOLNOHUH DoÕN GH÷LúLPFLGHPRNUDWJLEL|]HOOLNOHUNLúLOL÷L\DQVÕWÕU

$GD\\DGDOLGHUNLúLOLNLPDMÕJHOLúWLULUNHQEXQX\DSPDYFXWGLOLQH GD\DQGÕUPDPDOÕGÕU %|\OH ELU KDWD VHoPHQOHU WDUDIÕQGDQ IDUN HGLOLU YH DGD\ÕQ LQDQGÕUÕFÕOÕ÷ÕQÕ \LWLUPHVLQH QHGHQ ROXU %X QHGHQOH DGD\ GR÷DO GDYUDQÕúODUVHUJLOHPHOLGLU

5. Referans *UXSODUÕ 6HoLPELUHWNLOHúLPVUHFLGLU6HoPHQELUVHoLPGHQ

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8. Beklenmeyen Durumlar: %D]Õ beklenmeyen toplumsal ya da ekonomik

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24 <DSÕODQ oDOÕúPDODU J|VWHUPHNWHGLU NL VHoPHQOHULQ VHoLP GDYUDQÕúODUÕ YHDGD\ODUÕ\DGDSDUWLOHULGH÷HUOHQGLUPHNULWHUOHULVHoPHQJUXSODUÕQDJ|UH IDUNOÕOÕN J|VWHUPHNWHGLU <XNDUÕGD da, EX IDUNOÕOÕNODUÕQ WHPHOGH FR÷UDILN GDYUDQÕúVDO SVLNRORMLN GHPRJUDILN VRV\DO NOWUHO YH ekonomik gibi IDNW|UOHUH J|UH IDUNOÕOÕNODU J|VWHUGL÷LQGHQ V|] HWPLúWLN %X DoÕGDQ EDNÕOGÕ÷ÕQGD øVODPR÷OX  ¶QD J|UH PDO YH KL]PHW SD]DUODPDVÕQGD WNHWLFLOHULJUXSODQGÕUPDNQH|OoGHGR÷UXLVHVL\DVHWSD]DUODPDVÕQGDGD VL\DVL SDUWLQLQ VHoPHQOHUL JUXSODQGÕUPDVÕ R NDGDU GR÷UXGXU   Ancak EX úHNLOGH ELU VL\DVL SDUWL \D GD DGD\ KHGHIOHULQH XODúDELOLU YH LNWLGDUD gelebilir.

2. 6HoPHQOHU LOHWLúLP VUHFLQGH ³DOÕFÕ´ NRQXPODUÕ LOH KHGHI NLWOH RODUDN NDUúÕPÕ]D oÕNDUODU 6L\DVDO SD]DUODPD HNVHQLQ LoHULVLQGH \DSÕODQ oDOÕúPDODU YH DUDúWÕUPDODU GD J|VWHUPLúWLU NL VL\DVDO SDUWLOHULQ \D GD DGD\ODUÕQ DPDoODUÕQÕ JHUoHNOHúWLUHELOPHVL KHGHI VHoPHQ NLWOHVLQLQ \D GD VHoPHQWDEDQÕQÕQ JHUHNVLQLPYHLVWHNOHULQLQEHOLUOHQPHVLQHYHDU]Xlanan WDWPLQLQ UDNLSOHUGHQ GDKD HWNLOL NDUúÕODQPDVÕQD GD\DQPDNWDGÕU Konuya LOHWLúLP VUHFL \DNODúÕPÕ LOH EDNÕOGÕ÷ÕQGD ³ND\QDN´ LoLQ WHPHO VRUXQ NRGODGÕ÷Õ LOHWLQLQ KHGHIOHGL÷L NHVLPH XODúPDVÕ YH LVWHGL÷L JLEL o|]POHQPHVLGLU Bu nedenle, siyasal iletilerLQ KHGHI DOÕFÕ NLWOHQLQ GLOL GLNNDWHDOÕQDUDNG]HQOHQPHVLNRGODQPDVÕHVDVWÕU $]L]2011: 6). Bunun LoLQ VHoPHQ NLWOHVLQH X\JXQ VDGH YH DQODúÕOÕU ELU GLO VHoLOPHVL gerekmektedir. 6L\DVDO LOHWLOHULQ KD]ÕUODQPDVÕ NDGDU |QHP DU] HGHQ ELU GL÷HU KXVXV LVH EX LOHWLOHULQ KDQJL WU LOHWLúLP NDQDOODUÕ LOH QDVÕO KHGHI NLWOH\H XODúWÕUÕODFD÷ÕGÕU %XUDGD LOHWLúLP \|QWHP YH WHNQLNOHULQLQ |]HOOLNOHULQLQ oRN L\L ELOLQPHVL KHGHI NLWOHQLQ KDQJL \|QWHP YH WHNQLN NXOODQÕODUDNYHULOHQVL\DVDOPHVDMODUÕDODFD÷ÕKXVXVODUÕQÕQGLNNDWHDOÕQPDVÕ gerekir (Aziz, 2011: 6).

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