Reel Kurun Türkiye'de Ekonomik Faaliyetler Üzerindeki Etkisi

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The effect of the real exchange rate on economic growth in developing countries is an important discussion subject. According to the orthodox view a devaluation in local currency increases exports which stimulates economic growth. One pillar of the economic programs advised by the World Bank and IMF to developing countries is to devaluate. However, not all economists agree that devaluations have a positive effect. In this study, we investigate how the effects of real echange rate changes are projected on the Turkish economy by focusing on the Özet

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Anahtar Kelimeler: '|YL].XUX(NRQRPLN(WNLhUHWLP7NHWLP<DWÕUÕP

THE EFFECT OF REAL EXCHANGE RATE ON ECONOMIC

ACTIVITIES IN TURKEY

Abstract

*_{*D]LDQWHShQLYHUVLWHVLøø%)øNWLVDW%|OPbaskonus@gantep.edu.tr, 0- 342-317 20 61}

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GDP and its subcomponents. As a result it is found that a real appreciation increases GDP, private machinery and equipment investment, and inventory, but private building construction decreases, and there is no effect on other components including consumption.

Keywords: Exchange rate, economic effect, production, consumption,

investment

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108

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ARDIÇ 2\D 3ÕQDU ³2XWSXW WKH 5HDO ([FKDQJH 5DWH DQG WKH &ULVHV LQ Turkey” Topics in Middle Eastern and North African Economies, MEEA Online Journal, 8.

BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, Mohsen. Ve Ilir Miteza; (2006), “Are Devaluations Contractionary? Evidence from Panel Cointegration.” Economic Issues, 1(1).

BEBCZUK, Ricardo, Arturo Galindo ve Ugo Panizza; (2006), “An Evaluation Of The Contractionary Devaluation Hypothesis”, Inter-American Development Bank Working Paper, 582.

BERUMENT +DNDQ YH 0HKPHW 3DVDRJXOODUÕ ³(IIHFWV 2I 7KH 5HDO Exchange Rate On Output And Inflation: Evidence From Turkey” The Developing Economies, 41(4), ss. 401–35.

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CHRISTOPOULOS, Dimitris K.; (2004), “Currency Devaluation And Output Growth: New Evidence From Panel Data Analysis.” Applied Economics Letters , ss. 809-813.

Ç$7ø. $1D]LI ³'DUDOWÕFÕ 'HYDODV\RQ +LSRWH]L 7UNL\H h]HULQH %LU Uygulama”, (JHhQLYHUVLWHVLdDOÕúPD0DNDOHVL, 06(09).

DICKEY David A. ve Wayne A. Fuller (1979), “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 74, No. 366, ss. 427- 431.

DOMAC, Ilker; (1997), “Are Devaluations Contractionary? Evidence from Turkey.” Journal of Economic Development, 22(2): ss. 145-163.

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