DergiPark THE JOURNAL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES INSTITUTE VAN YÜZÜNCÜ YIL ÜNİVERSİTESİSOSYAL BİLİMLER ENSTİTÜSÜ DERGİSİ

(1)

Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi The Journal Of Social Sciences Institute

ISSN: 1302-6879

VAN YÜZÜNCÜ YIL ÜNİVERSİTESİ SOSYAL BİLİMLER ENSTİTÜSÜ DERGİSİ

THE JOURNAL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES INSTITUTE

YIL/YEAR: 2017 SAYI/NUMBER: 36

ULUSLARARASI HAKEMLİ DERGİDİR

TARAFINDAN TARANMAKTADIR DERGİMİZ

Tübitak DergiPark

DergiPark

_AKADEMİK

akademik

(2)

Hakemli Dergi, Yıl 2017 Sayı:36 Peer-Reviewed Journal, Year:2017 Issue: 36

Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi The Journal Of Social Sciences Institute

VAN YÜZÜNCÜ YIL ÜNİVERSİTESİ SOSYAL BİLİMLER ENSTİTÜSÜ DERGİSİ THE JOURNAL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES INSTITUTE

Sahibi/Owner Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Adına

Doç. Dr. Bekir KOÇLAR Editörler/Editors Doç. Dr. Bekir KOÇLAR Öğr. Gör. Kemal TEMİZER

Tercüme ve Dil Editörleri/Translation and Language Editors Prof. Dr. M. Şirin ÇIKAR (Arapça)

Doç. Dr. Cavid QASIMOV (Rusça) Yrd. Doç. Dr. Aydın GÖRMEZ (İngilizce) Yrd. Doç. Dr. Süleyman ERATALAY (Almanca)

Yrd. Doç. Dr. Mustafa SOLMAZ (Fransızca) Yayın Kurulu/Editorial Board

Prof. Dr. Abed Elrahim Azzam Mohammad MARASHDEH, Jadara Üniversitesi, Ürdün

Prof. Dr. Ali J. Al-ALLAQ, el-Ain Üniversitesi, Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri Prof. Dr. Alﬁna SİBGATULLİNA- Russian Academy of Sciences- Rusya

Prof. Dr. Azmi SÜSLÜ-Ankara Üniversitesi

Prof. Dr. Bayram KODAMAN-Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi Prof. Dr. Faruq MAWASİ, Al Qasimi Academy, Filistin.

Prof. Dr. Ivan BALTA-University of Osije- Hırvatistan Prof. Dr. Hasan ÇİÇEK- Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi

Prof. Dr. Medhat Saad Mohamed ELGAYAAR, Zagazig Üniversitesi, Mısır Prof. Dr. M. Şirin ÇIKAR- Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi

Prof. Dr. Munjid Mustafa BAHJAT, International Islamic University, Malaysia.

Prof. Dr. Necmettin ALKAN-Karadeniz Teknik Üniversitesi Prof. Dr. Nimetullah HAFIZ-Balkan Tarihi Araştırmaları Merkezi-Kosova

Prof. Dr. Öztürk EMİROĞLU-Varşova Yunus Emre Enstitüsü-Polonya Prof. Dr. Recai KARAHAN, Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi

Prof. Dr. Salim CÖHCE İnönü Üniversitesi Prof. Dr. Samı Alı JABBAR, Basra Üniversitesi-Irak Prof. Dr. Serbo RASTODER-University of Montenegro-Karadağ Prof. Dr. Süleyman Turduyeviç KAYIPOV-Sincan Pedagoji Üniversitesi-Çin

Doç. Dr. Bekir KOÇLAR-Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Doç. Dr. Tamer BALCI - The University of Texas-ABD Doç. Dr. Vitaliy POZNAHİREV, Russian Academy of Sciences- Rusya

Yrd. Doç. Dr. Abdulaziz KARDAŞ Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Ertuğrul ÇAVDAR, Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi

Dr. Salih Ahmad ABDULVEHHAB-Ezher Üniversitesi-Mısır

(3)

Danışma Kurulu/Advisory Board Prof. Dr. Alﬁna SİBGATULLİNA

Prof. Dr. Ali Fuat DOĞU Prof. Dr. Azmi SÜSLÜ Prof. Dr. Bayram KODAMAN

Prof. Dr. S. Cem ŞAKTANLI Prof. Dr. Cesur PEVLEVAN Prof. Dr. Hasan BABACAN

Prof. Dr. Ivan BALTA Prof. Dr. Metin AYIŞIĞI Prof. Dr. Mehmet AYGÜN

Prof. Dr. Necdet HAYTA Prof. Dr. Nimetullah HAFIZ Prof. Dr. Rafet ÇAVUŞOĞLU

Prof. Dr. Reha SAYDAN Prof. Dr. Salim CÖHCE Prof. Dr. Serbo RASTODER Prof. Dr. Süleyman Turduyeviç KAYIPOV

Prof. Dr. Zeki TAŞTAN Doç. Dr. A. Menaf TURAN Doç. Dr. B. Cercis TANRITANIR

Doç. Dr. Ferit İZCİ Doç. Dr. M. Akif ARVAS

Doç. Dr. Suvat PARİN Doç. Dr. Tamer BALCI Doç. Dr. Tuncay ÖĞÜN Doç. Dr. Zafer KANBEROĞLU

Sekreterya/Secretary Ahmet KÖKLÜ

Murat ÇABAZ

Dizgi-Baskı/Print-Compasition

Baranoğlu Ofset Matbaacılık: (0432)215 94 06 VAN

Yazışma Adresi/Correspondence Address Yrd. Doç. Dr. Abdulaziz KARDAŞ

Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü/VAN Tel: 0432 225 11 17- 0432 225 10 24 /2002- Fax:0432 225 10 52

İleti Adresi: http://www.yyusbedergisi.com/

Baskı Yılı/Date of Publication 2017

(4)

İÇİNDEKİLER / CONTENTS

11

25

33

55

77

89

109

119

133

ARKEOLOJİ/ARCHAEOLOGY Arş. Gör. Dr. Sabahattin ERDOĞAN

Minua (Şamram) Kanalı ve Tariria Bahçesi İlişkisi Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme An Evaluation on the Relationship Between Minua (şamram) Canal and Tariria Garden

DİL VE EDEBİYAT/LANGUAGE AND LITERATURE Yrd. Doç. Dr. Fırat YILDIZ

Iris Murdoch'ın Kesik Bir Baş'ında ve Oğuz Atay'ın Tutunamayanlar'ında Yanılsama Illusion in Iris Murdoch's a Severed Head and Oguz Atay's Tutunamayanlar Yrd. Doç. Dr. Metin EREN

Van Gölü Havzası Masallarının Estetik Biçimlenmesinde Kalıp, Tekrar ve Anlatıcı Formula, Repetition and Narrator In Aesthetics Forming of Van Lake Basin Folk Tales

Yrd. Doç. Dr. Soner İŞİMTEKİN

Furûğ Ferruhzâd ve Sylvia Plath'ın Şiirlerinde Kullanılan Esenliksiz Kelimeler Üzerine

On Dysphoric Words Used by Forugh Farrokhzad and Sylvia Plath in Their Poems

FELSEFE/ PHILOSOPHY Prof. Dr. Hasan ÇİÇEK

Milliyetçilik Karşıtı Söylem: Mevlana ve Habermas Discourse Against Nationalism: Rumi and Habermas İKTİSADİ VE İDARİ BİLİMLER/ ECONOMIC AND ADMINISTRATIVE SCIENCES

Doç. Dr. M. Akif ARVAS Arş. Gör. Mustafa TORUSDAĞ

Causality Relationship Between Imports, Exports and Economic Growth: An Evaluation in Terms of Turkey and Five European Countries Öğr. Üyesi Serpil SEVİMLİ DENİZ

Doç. Dr. H. Eray ÇELİK

Trb2 Bölgesinde Kümelenme Potansiyeli Olan Sektörlerin Belirlenmesi Determination of Sectors Which Clustered Potential in Trb2 Region Öğr. Gör. Ayhan CESUR

Öğr. Gör. Mehmet Sadık ÇOBAN Gerilla Pazarlama

Guerrilla Marketing

İLAHİYAT / TEOLOGIE Prof. Dr. M. Şirin ÇIKAR

Modern Arap Romanında Türkiye İmajı: Subhi Fehmavi Örneği The Image of Turkey in Modern Arab Novel: Suphi Fehmavi Example

(5)

145

177

195

225

249

279

299

313

329

345

361 393

Yrd. Doç. Dr. Mahmut DÜNDAR

Eyyubi Dönemi Mısır Medreseleri Egyptian Madrasas in Ayyubid Era Egyptian Madrasas in Ayyubid Era

SANAT TARİH/ HISTORY ART Yrd. Doç. Dr. Ercan ÇALIŞ

Alanya Atatürk Evi ve Müzesi'nde Sergilenen Bir Grup Madeni Takı A Group of Metal Jewellery Displayed in Alanya Atatürk House and Museum Yrd. Doç. Dr. Oktay BAŞAK

Öğr. Gör. Ahmet BODAKÇİ

Mardin Mezar Taşlarından Lahit Formunda İki Örnek Two Samples in Sarcophagus Form from Mardin Gravestones

SOSYOLOJİ/ SOCIOLOGY Yrd. Doç. Dr. Mustafa GÜNERİGÖK Geç Modern Çağda Dinsel Bireycilik ve Kimlik

Religious Individualism and Identity in the Late Modern Age

TARİH/ HISTORY Prof. Dr. Serpil SÜRMELİ

Lozan Konferansı Sırasında Türk Gazeteciler ve İzlenimleri

Turkish Journalists and Their Impressions During the Lausanne Conference Yrd. Doç. Dr. Abdulaziz KARDAŞ

Cumhuriyet'in İlk Yıllarında Bitlis'teki Eğitim Durumuna Bir Bakış

In the Early Years of the Republic a Look at the Educational Situation in Bitlis Yrd. Doç. Dr. Rahmi TEKİN

XVII. Yüzyıldamüslim-Gayrimüslim İlişkileri (İstanbul Örneği) XVII. Müslim-gayrimüslim Relations in the Century (İstanbul Sample) Yrd. Doç. Dr. Ömer OBUZ

Fikrin Mürekkeple Sınavı: Mahmut Soydan'ın Kaleminden Terakkiperver Cumhuriyet Fırkası ile Serbest Cumhuriyet Fırkası

Examination With Inkof Idea: From Mahmut Soydan's Pen Progressive Republic Party and Free Republican Party

Yrd. Doç. Dr. Pelin İSKENDER KILIÇ

Schneider Efendi: Osmanlı Hizmetinde Bir Levanten Schneider Efendi: A Levantine in Ottoman Service Arş. Gör. Vural ÖNTÜRK

Gaznelilerde Bir Şehzade Düşmanı: Hâcibü'l-Hüccâb Tuğrul Bozan An Princes Enemy of the Ghaznavids: Hâjibu'l-hujjâb Toghril Bozan Yrd. Doç. Dr. Güneş ŞAHİN

Dr. Öğrencisi Rıdvan SÜSLÜ

Ferit Melen'in Maliye Bakanlığı Günlerine Bir Bakış

An Overview of the Ofﬁce Days of Former Minister Ferit Melen in the Ministry of Finance

Yayın İlkeleri ve Yazım Kuralları

(6)

36. SAYI HAKEMLERİ / REVIEWERS OF THE 36 TH ISSUE

Prof. Dr. Metin AYIŞIĞI Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Prof. Dr. Mehmet AYGÜN Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Prof. Dr. Mehmet Şirin ÇIKAR Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Prof. Dr. Zeki TAŞTAN Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Doç. Dr. Abdullah DUMAN Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Doç. Dr. Bekir KOÇLAR Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi

Doç. Dr. Hatice KALKAN Namık Kemal Üniversitesi

Doç. Dr. M. Akif ARVAS Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi

Doç. Dr. Cengiz ATLI Iğdır Üniversitesi

Doç. Dr. Gülsen BAŞ Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi

Doç. Dr. Selma BAŞ Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi

Doç. Dr. Zafer KANBEROĞLU Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Abdulaziz KARDAŞ Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Abdulhadi TİMURTAŞ Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Abdulkadir GÜMÜŞ Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Abdullah OĞRAK Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Aydın GÖRMEZ Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Ayşe ERTUŞ Hakkâri Üniversitesi

Yrd. Doç. Dr. Ahmet OĞUZ Karabük Üniversitesi

Yrd. Doç. Dr. Ahmet GÖKÇEN Muş Alparslan Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Bedrettin BASUĞUY Bingöl Üniversitesi

Yrd. Doç. Dr. Bilcan GÖKÇE Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Bora YILMAZ Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Emine CİHANGİR Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Fırat YILDIZ Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Gülşen TORUSDAĞ Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Güneş ŞAHİN Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Haktan SEVİNÇ Iğdır Üniversitesi

Yrd. Doç. Dr. Haluk YERGİN Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Hamit AKTÜRK Namık Kemal Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Mahmut DÜNDAR Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Mehmet KULAZ Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Metin EREN Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Nevzat KELEŞ Bingöl Üniversitesi

Yrd. Doç. Dr. Ömer TOKUŞ Bingöl Üniversitesi

Yrd. Doç. Dr. Ömer OBUZ Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Recep DEMİR Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Raşit KOÇ Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Tahir ZORKUL Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Tahsin KORKUT Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Veysi SEVİNÇLİ Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Yunus KAPLAN Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi

(7)

HAKEMLERİMİZ / REFEREES Prof. Dr. Ahmet BURAN Fırat Üniversitesi

Prof. Dr. Abed Elrahim Azzam Mohammad MARASHDEH, Jadara Üniversitesi, Ürdün Prof. Dr. Ali J. Al-ALLAQ, el-Ain Üniversitesi, Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri Prof. Dr. Azmi SÜSLÜ Ankara Üniversitesi

Prof. Dr. Ali Fuat DOĞU Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Prof. Dr. Alﬁna SİBGATULLİNA Russian Academy of Sciences-Rusya Prof. Dr. Bayram KODAMAN Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi Prof. Dr. Bedri SARICA Pamukkale Üniversitesi Prof. Dr. B. Kemal YEŞİLBURSA Uludağ Üniversitesi

Prof. Dr. Cesur PEHLEVAN Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Prof. Dr. Erdal AYDOĞAN Atatürk Üniversitesi

Prof. Dr. Faruk ALAEDDİNOĞLU Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Prof. Dr. Faruq MAWASİ, Al Qasimi Academy, Filistin.

Prof. Dr. Ivan BALTA University of Osije- Hırvatistan Prof. Dr. Medhat Saad Mohamed ELGAYAAR, Zagazig Üniversitesi, Mısır Prof. Dr. Munjid Mustafa BAHJAT, International Islamic University, Malaysia.

Prof. Dr. Nimetullah HAFIZ Balkan Tarihi Araştırmaları Merkezi-Kosova Prof. Dr. Salim CÖHCE İnönü Üniversitesi

Prof. Dr. S. Esin DAYI Atatürk Üniversitesi Prof. Dr. Gülay ÖĞÜN BEZER Marmara Üniversitesi Prof. Dr. Hasan BABACAN M. Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi Prof. Dr. İbrahim ÖZCOŞAR Mardin Artuklu Üniversitesi Prof. Dr. İsa YÜCEER Bitlis Eren Üniversitesi Prof. Dr. M. Salih ARI Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Prof. Dr. M. Şirin ÇIKAR Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Prof. Dr. Mehmet AYGÜN Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Prof. Dr. Mehmet KUBAT İnönü Üniversitesi

Prof. Dr. Metin AYIŞIĞI Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Prof. Dr. Necdet HAYTA Gazi Üniversitesi

Prof. Dr. Necmettin ALKAN Karadeniz Teknik Üniversitesi Prof. Dr. Nevzat TARTI Akdeniz Üniversitesi

Prof. Dr. Öztürk EMİROĞLU Varşova Yunus Emre Enstitüsü-Polonya Prof. Dr. Rafet ÇAVUŞOĞLU Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi

Prof. Dr. Recai KARAHAN Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Prof. Dr. Reha SAYDAN Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Prof. Dr. Resul ÖZTÜRK Atatürk Üniversitesi

Prof. Dr. Samı Alı JABBAR, Basra Üniversitesi-Irak

Prof. Dr. Serbo RASTODER University of Montenegro-Karadağ Prof. Dr. Serpil SÜRMELİ On Dokuz Mayıs Üniversitesi Prof. Dr. Selahattin SÖNMEZSOY Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Prof. Dr. Süleyman Turduyeviç KAYIPOV Sincan Pedagoji Üniversitesi-Çin Prof. Dr. Şakir GÖZÜTOK Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Prof. Dr. Şenol ÇELİK Balıkesir Üniversitesi Prof. Dr. Yakup CİVELEK Bartın Üniversitesi

Prof. Dr. Zeki TAŞTAN Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Doç. Dr. Abdullah DUMAN Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Doç. Dr. Abdulmecit CANATAK Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Doç. Dr. Adnan ÇEVİK Sıtkı Koçman Üniversitesi Doç. Dr. Bekir KOÇLAR Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi

(8)

HAKEMLERİMİZ / REFEREES

Doç. Dr. Cem KAHYA Bayburt Üniversitesi Doç. Dr. Cengiz ATLI Iğdır Üniversitesi

Doç. Dr. Gülsen BAŞ Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Doç. Dr. İsmail EYYUPOĞLU Atatürk Üniversitesi

Doç. Dr. Menaf TURAN Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Doç. Dr. Mehmet DEMİRTAŞ Bitlis Eren Üniversitesi Doç. Dr. Mehmet PINAR Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Doç. Dr. Melih ERZEN Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Doç. Dr. M. Salih MERCAN Bitlis Eren Üniversitesi Doç. Dr. M. Akif ARVAS Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Doç. Dr. Murat ÖZTÜRK Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Doç. Dr. Mustafa SARICA Pamukkale Üniversitesi Doç. Dr. Nihat ŞİMŞEK Gaziantep Üniversitesi Doç. Dr. Özer KÜPELİ Kâtip Çelebi Üniversitesi Doç. Dr. Sabri AZGÜN Atatürk Üniversitesi

Doç. Dr. Selma BAŞ Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Doç. Dr. Tamer BALCI The University of Texas-ABD Doç. Dr. Tuncay ÖĞÜN Sıtkı Koçman Üniversitesi Doç. Dr. Vecihi SÖNMEZ Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Doç. Dr. Zafer KANBEROĞLU Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Doç. Dr. Zekeriya NAS Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Abdulaziz KARDAŞ Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Abdullah OĞRAK Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Abdulhadi TİMURTAŞ Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Abdurrahim TUFANTOZ Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Ahmet EYİM Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Aysun YARALI AKKAYA Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Arif GEZER Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Aydın GÖRMEZ Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Bülent ALAN Mardin Artuklu Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. E. Yaşar DEMİRCİ Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Ercan ÇAĞLAYAN Muş Alparslan Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Ercan ÇALIŞ Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Ertuğrul ÇAVDAR Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Erkan AFŞAR Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Fatih GENCER Bitlis Eren Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Ferit İZCİ Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Fırat YILDIZ Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Güneş ŞAHİN Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Mehmet KULAZ Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Mehmet TOP Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Metin YILDIZ Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. M. Halil ERZEN Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. M. Nuri KARDAŞ Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Nevzat KELEŞ Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Nilgün BİLİCİ Atatürk Üniversitesi

Yrd. Doç. Dr. Oktay BAŞAK Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Osman AYTEKİN Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Ömer DEMİRBAĞ Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi

(9)

HAKEMLERİMİZ / REFEREES

Yrd. Doç. Dr. Ramazan ÖZMEN Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Rahmi TEKİN Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Raşit KOÇ Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Recep DEMİR Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Sait EBİNÇ Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Sevda ERATALAY Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Veysi SEVİNÇLİ Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Yalçın KARACA Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Yrd. Doç. Dr. Yasin DOĞAN Kafkas Üniversitesi

Dr. Salih Ahmad ABDULVEHHAB Ezher Üniversitesi-Mısır

(10)

89

Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi The Journal of Social Sciences Institute

--- (1990). Fihi Mafih, çev. M.Ü. Anbarcıoğlu.

İstanbul: MEB

--- (1991). Mesnevi C.I- VI, Çev. Veled İzbudak.

İstanbul: MEB.

--- (1992). Dîvân-ı Kebîr C.I- VII, Haz. Abdülbaki Gölpınarlı. Ankara: Kültür Bakanlığı y.

--- (2004). Mesnevi C.1- 2, Haz. Adnan Karaismailoğlu.

Ankara: Y.Ş. Y.

Milas, Herkül (2012). “Edebiyat ve Milliyetçi Kalıpyargılar”, Ayrımcılık Çok Boyutlu Yaklaşımlar, Der: Kenan Çayır- Müge Ayan Ceyhan, İstanbul:Bilgi Ü. Y.

Platon (2010). Mektuplar, çev. Furkan Akderin. İstanbul: Say Y. Sarlo, Beatriz (2012). Geçmiş Zaman, çev. Peral Beyaz Charum- Deniz Ekinci, İstanbul: Metis Y.

Scheler, Max, (1998). İnsanın Kosmostaki Yeri, Çev.Harun Tepe, İstanbul: Ayraç Y.

Weber, Alfred (1993). Felsefe Tarihi, çev. H. Vehbi Eralp, 5.Basım. İstanbul: Sosyal Y.

Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, The Journal of Social Sciences Institute

Sayı/Issue:36 – Sayfa / Page:

ISSN: 1302-6879 VAN/TURKEY Makale Bilgisi / Article Info

Geliş/Received: 01.08.2017 Kabul/Accepted: 29.09.2017

CAUSALITY RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN IMPORTS, EXPORTS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: AN EVALUATION IN TERMS OF TURKEY AND FIVE EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

Assoc. Prof. Dr. M. Akif ARVAS Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversity,

Department of Economics, aarvas@yyu.edu.tr Res. Asst. Mustafa TORUSDAĞ Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversity

Department of Economics mustafatorusdag@yyu.edu.tr

Abstract

In this study, the impact of export and import expansion on economic growth is examined for three developed countries (England, France, and Germany) and three developing countries (Turkey, Czech Republic and Poland) from the Europe. For this purpose, this impact is estimated by Johansen co-integration and Granger causality analysis based on error correction model (ECM) for the period 2003:1—2016:1. According to the results, while GLE, ELG, ILG and GLI hypotheses are supported for Turkey and France, only GLE and ELG hypotheses are accepted for Germany, Czech Republic and Poland. As for England, it is not found any evidence for validity of any hypothesis.

Keywords: International Trade, Economic Growth, Granger Causality Test based on Error Correction Model

1. Introduction

Economic size refers to the amount of goods and services produced. Economic growth, therefore, is measured as the real growth increases. Economic growth occurs in two ways. The first is to achieve growth by increasing the physical value of the goods and services

(11)

90 Van Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi The Journal of Social Sciences Institute

produced, if the resources in the economy are underemployed, that is, if they are used below the full employment level, by using resources more efficiently or by starting to use the best technology available.

Secondly, in the case of full employment, it is ensured that by the amount of production factors is increased or by technological improvement which increases factor productivity. The main factors affecting economic growth positively are capital accumulation, technological developments, increase in human capital investments, abundance of natural resources and economic development (Tıraşoğlu, 2012).

This study examines the causality relationship between imports, exports and economic growth in Turkey and five European countries. Whether imports and exports have an impact on economic growth is demonstrated by Johansen-Juselies (1992) with the help of Engle-Granger (1987) causality analysis based on the cointegration and error correction model. The study has five sections: In the first chapter, foreign trade and growth relations are introduced. In the second part, the theoretical model frame is created, while the third part covers a literature review. In the fourth chapter econometric methods and findings are examined. In the fifth and final section, the conclusion and evaluation section is included.

I. Foreign Trade Growth Relation

Investment of production and resources, scarce investment goods, intermediate goods, raw materials become importable from abroad, capital, labor, technology can be imported. The product in the domestic economy is limited to providing more market, a large market volume, and the production in the closed economy is limited to the domestic market volume. The large market makes it possible to benefit from large scale economies. Internal scale economies, external scale economies and large market foreign investors can also attract.

International competition increases efficiency in production, develops technology, leads to skilled businessmen who attempt to investment.

With economic dynamism gaining momentum, countries approach economic and commercial relations with each other, consumers become aware of each other's goods, new needs arise, goods are requested in different qualities, changes in economic structure arise, and export and import requirements arise between countries.

Some important effects of exports on economic growth can be summarized as follows (Aktaş, 2009): Export increases competition.

The new international market is characterized by increased competition, significantly improved resource allocation, dissemination

(12)

91

produced, if the resources in the economy are underemployed, that is, if they are used below the full employment level, by using resources more efficiently or by starting to use the best technology available.

Secondly, in the case of full employment, it is ensured that by the amount of production factors is increased or by technological improvement which increases factor productivity. The main factors affecting economic growth positively are capital accumulation, technological developments, increase in human capital investments, abundance of natural resources and economic development (Tıraşoğlu, 2012).

This study examines the causality relationship between imports, exports and economic growth in Turkey and five European countries. Whether imports and exports have an impact on economic growth is demonstrated by Johansen-Juselies (1992) with the help of Engle-Granger (1987) causality analysis based on the cointegration and error correction model. The study has five sections: In the first chapter, foreign trade and growth relations are introduced. In the second part, the theoretical model frame is created, while the third part covers a literature review. In the fourth chapter econometric methods and findings are examined. In the fifth and final section, the conclusion and evaluation section is included.

I. Foreign Trade Growth Relation

Investment of production and resources, scarce investment goods, intermediate goods, raw materials become importable from abroad, capital, labor, technology can be imported. The product in the domestic economy is limited to providing more market, a large market volume, and the production in the closed economy is limited to the domestic market volume. The large market makes it possible to benefit from large scale economies. Internal scale economies, external scale economies and large market foreign investors can also attract.

International competition increases efficiency in production, develops technology, leads to skilled businessmen who attempt to investment.

With economic dynamism gaining momentum, countries approach economic and commercial relations with each other, consumers become aware of each other's goods, new needs arise, goods are requested in different qualities, changes in economic structure arise, and export and import requirements arise between countries.

Some important effects of exports on economic growth can be summarized as follows (Aktaş, 2009): Export increases competition.

The new international market is characterized by increased competition, significantly improved resource allocation, dissemination

of technical knowledge, greater confidence in the management and greater entrepreneurship, and externalities to the non-export sectors, to achieve skills and to create an effective price mechanism.In addition to increasing productivity, foreign trade increases the rate of economic growth by providing new technologies and spreading them. Exports provide opportunities to benefit from competitive advantages. It also reveals a variety of new opportunities both indoors and outdoors.

Reducing labor costs, increasing foreign demand for domestic goods, stimulating new investments, making more investments in these sectors, and taking advantage of specialization and comparative advantages are some examples of these opportunities.

Economies that have narrow domestic markets can only benefit from economical production through exports. The promotion of exports increases the foreign exchange inflows and reduces the foreign exchange pressures on foreign payments. Thus, imports of goods and services can be increased. The export increase also plays a driving role in economic growth by expanding the import capacity, which plays an important role in increasing domestic production, which is not found in the country such as various inputs and capital goods.

In an open economy, the causality relationship between exports and economic growth can be structured in four different ways (Taştan, 2010):

1. The one who says that there is a one-way causality relation from exports to growth Hypothesis. In the exports-based growth hypothesis, it is thought thatexports influence the economic growth positively from the indirect routes as well as national income and its impacting factor. With the increase in exports, resources will be shifted from inefficient non-trade sectors to the export sector, and effective use of resources will lead to increased productivity. Export growth will increase productivity and ultimately economic growth by encouraging new technologies to be pursued by pursuing new technologies, research and development, more effective management techniques and intensification of entrepreneurial activities, learning and skill development. The increase in exports will contribute to economic growth by increasing import capacity and facilitating the importation of capital and intermediate goods, especially in the production of industrial goods.

2. Economic growth is a hypothesis that predicts a correct causality relationship. In the hypothesis of "growth driven exports", it is thought that economic growth facilitates the adoption of new technologies, resulting in increased productivity, and as a result, the

(13)

country increases exports by obtaining comparative advantage in international markets.

3. There is a two-way causality relationship between economic growth and exports. While export growth leads to economic growth, higher income levels can lead to increased trade and lead to a bilateral interaction.

4. There may be no causal relationship between economic growth and exports. On the other hand, production is affected in two different ways by the chain effect of imports, which is an important component of foreign trade: First, the quality of the firms in the industry may increase due to the foreign company competition arising from imports and thus the importation of competitive products can encourage innovation. Second, access to better quality intermediaries can increase total factor productivity. To understand that the increase in output through imports is harmful or beneficial to the country, the national income should be taken into consideration.

If there is not a decrease in national income and a high rate of growth has been achieved, then it can be said that growth is based on imports (Yıldız, Berber, 2011). Imports can also play an important role in relation to imports and economic growth. Importance is one of the most important channels for the transfer of new technology, especially emphasized in the theory of internal growth, and for the achievement of higher quality capital goods and intermediate goods.

So, a system of economic growth, import exports (growth hypothesis of import lead) can have a causality relationship to grow imported stocks (Taştan, 2010.).

If we look at the positive effects of exports on growth;

Increase of exports increases national income, division of labor, cooperation through foreign trade multiplier, increases productivity and production. In addition, exports, costs will decrease as the quality of the product increases. Exporting increases competition and increasing competition makes it necessary to produce on the basis of advanced technology. The increase in exports increases domestic savings and domestic investment, and provides a surplus in the balance of payments (Gül, Kamacı and Konya, 2013).

II. Theoretical Model

As was evidenced in previous empirical studies such as Balassa (1978) and Sheehey (1992), only the export variable is included in the total production function, as the causality relationship between GDP and exports is estimated. In this study, the augmented

(14)

93

country increases exports by obtaining comparative advantage in international markets.

3. There is a two-way causality relationship between economic growth and exports. While export growth leads to economic growth, higher income levels can lead to increased trade and lead to a bilateral interaction.

4. There may be no causal relationship between economic growth and exports. On the other hand, production is affected in two different ways by the chain effect of imports, which is an important component of foreign trade: First, the quality of the firms in the industry may increase due to the foreign company competition arising from imports and thus the importation of competitive products can encourage innovation. Second, access to better quality intermediaries can increase total factor productivity. To understand that the increase in output through imports is harmful or beneficial to the country, the national income should be taken into consideration.

If there is not a decrease in national income and a high rate of growth has been achieved, then it can be said that growth is based on imports (Yıldız, Berber, 2011). Imports can also play an important role in relation to imports and economic growth. Importance is one of the most important channels for the transfer of new technology, especially emphasized in the theory of internal growth, and for the achievement of higher quality capital goods and intermediate goods.

So, a system of economic growth, import exports (growth hypothesis of import lead) can have a causality relationship to grow imported stocks (Taştan, 2010.).

If we look at the positive effects of exports on growth;

Increase of exports increases national income, division of labor, cooperation through foreign trade multiplier, increases productivity and production. In addition, exports, costs will decrease as the quality of the product increases. Exporting increases competition and increasing competition makes it necessary to produce on the basis of advanced technology. The increase in exports increases domestic savings and domestic investment, and provides a surplus in the balance of payments (Gül, Kamacı and Konya, 2013).

II. Theoretical Model

As was evidenced in previous empirical studies such as Balassa (1978) and Sheehey (1992), only the export variable is included in the total production function, as the causality relationship between GDP and exports is estimated. In this study, the augmented

production function (1) with the addition of models as well as import substitution is expressed in the equation as follows.

[( , )];X,M)

Y f K L (1)

In the formula, Y represents real GDP growth. K, L, X and M represent real total capital, labor force, real exports and real imports, respectively. Given the long-run nature of the relationship between trade and economic growth, it is necessary to first conduct a Granger causality analysis for the cointegration test, as the methodology of cointegration test is very common and well documented. In the time series analysis modeled by Johansen and Juselius (1990), they calculate the maximum likelihood estimates in the error correction model (ECM) with multivariable Gaussian errors in the reduced sequence regression. Based on the error correction model (ECM), the equation is expressed as follows:

1

1 1

1 p

t i t t t

i

Z



^ Z_ Z_





  



     ⁽²⁾

Zt represents the (n × 1) column vector of p variables, μ is the constant terms of the (n × 1) vector, and Γ and Π represent coefficient matrices and carry information on the long-term relationship of the variables in the equation. Δ denotes the difference operator, k denotes the lag length, and



_t denotes the error term and has a normal distribution. After setting the cointegration degree of each variable by pre-tests (VAR model lag-length selection criteria method), (2) the linear equation was estimated by Johansen cointegration method for each country sample. Estimation results are used to calculate traces and maximal eigenvalue (λ-max) statistics.

III. Literature Review

Aktaş (2009) examined the relationship between Turkey's 1996-2006 period and the dual causality relationship between imports, exports and growth, by Johansen's Cointegration test. According to the test results, there is a long term equilibrium relationship between exports, imports and economic growth, and that there is a two-way causality relationship between imports, exports and economic growth in the short term. On the other hand, even though there is a causality relationshipfrom exports to imports, imports to exports, growth to exports and from growth to imports, it is not found any causality relationship from exports and imports to growth.

(15)

Taştan (2010), In the article titled "Spectral Analysis of Causal Relations Between Export, Import and Economic Growth in Turkey", the interaction and causality relationship between the variables of export, industrial production and import in the period of 1985:01-2009:05 period are examined by using the frequency-domain method. For this purpose, frequency-domain causality tests developed by Geweke (1982, 1984), Hosoya (1991, 2001) and Breitung- Candelon (2006) have been used in addition to basic spectral techniques such as kosepktrum and phase harmony squares. In the long term, the direction of causality is correct to the rate of export growth from industrial production growth. Moreover, import growth rate and industrial production growth rate are found to be the reason of Granger. These findings support the "import-based growth" and

"growth-led export" hypotheses.

Acet, Erdoğan and Köksal (2016), the causal relationship between total imports, total exports and growth in Turkey is examined by Granger Causality test for 1998-2013 in the article "Causality Relation Between Import, Export and Growth: Turkey Application".

The main issue investigated in the study is whether imports or exports is the main driven factor of the real gross domestic product. According to the test results, there is a causal relationship between total exports, total imports and real GDP. It is found that the growth is based on imports because of the fact that imports are the decisive factor on growth.

Temiz (2010), the causality relation between real exports and economic growth in the article "Relation between Real Exports and Economic Growth in Turkey: 1965-2009 Period" is examined from the point of view of Johansen cointegration test and Turkey for 1965- 2009. As a result of the Granger causality test, it is seen that the short- term causality relation between the variables is correct to the increase of real exports from the increase of real GDP, in 1965-2009 periods, in which there is a long-run relationship of balance between real exports in Turkey and real GDP. In the long term, the relation between real export and economic growth support export led growth hypothesis but in the short term not supportthis result of hypothesis.

Awokuse (2007), “Causality between exports, imports, and economic growth: Evidence from transition economies” in the article is analyzed for the impact of increase in imports and exports on economical growth in the three transition economies (Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and Poland) is examined by Granger causality analysis. According to Granger causality analysis, import and export- based growth seems to be the issue.

(16)

95

Taştan (2010), In the article titled "Spectral Analysis of Causal Relations Between Export, Import and Economic Growth in Turkey", the interaction and causality relationship between the variables of export, industrial production and import in the period of 1985:01-2009:05 period are examined by using the frequency-domain method. For this purpose, frequency-domain causality tests developed by Geweke (1982, 1984), Hosoya (1991, 2001) and Breitung- Candelon (2006) have been used in addition to basic spectral techniques such as kosepktrum and phase harmony squares. In the long term, the direction of causality is correct to the rate of export growth from industrial production growth. Moreover, import growth rate and industrial production growth rate are found to be the reason of Granger. These findings support the "import-based growth" and

"growth-led export" hypotheses.

Acet, Erdoğan and Köksal (2016), the causal relationship between total imports, total exports and growth in Turkey is examined by Granger Causality test for 1998-2013 in the article "Causality Relation Between Import, Export and Growth: Turkey Application".

The main issue investigated in the study is whether imports or exports is the main driven factor of the real gross domestic product. According to the test results, there is a causal relationship between total exports, total imports and real GDP. It is found that the growth is based on imports because of the fact that imports are the decisive factor on growth.

Temiz (2010), the causality relation between real exports and economic growth in the article "Relation between Real Exports and Economic Growth in Turkey: 1965-2009 Period" is examined from the point of view of Johansen cointegration test and Turkey for 1965- 2009. As a result of the Granger causality test, it is seen that the short- term causality relation between the variables is correct to the increase of real exports from the increase of real GDP, in 1965-2009 periods, in which there is a long-run relationship of balance between real exports in Turkey and real GDP. In the long term, the relation between real export and economic growth support export led growth hypothesis but in the short term not supportthis result of hypothesis.

Awokuse (2007), “Causality between exports, imports, and economic growth: Evidence from transition economies” in the article is analyzed for the impact of increase in imports and exports on economical growth in the three transition economies (Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and Poland) is examined by Granger causality analysis. According to Granger causality analysis, import and export- based growth seems to be the issue.

Yapraklı (2007), "The Causality Between Exports and Economic Growth: An Econometric Analysis on Turkey" examines the causality between exports and economic growth in Turkey for the period 1970-2005. The relationship between exports and economic growth according to the main sectors such as industry, agriculture and mining and total sectors is examined from the econometric perspective by using cointegration, error correction method and Granger causality tests. According to the results of the analysis, it is concluded that the positive and one-way causality from total and industrial exports to economic growth in Turkey means that the export-oriented growth hypothesis is valid in terms of total and industrial exports in Turkey.

Gül, Kamacı and Konya (2013), "The Effects on the Growth of Foreign Trade: The Case of Turkish Republics and Turkey" in the article, the effect of Eastern Bloc on the growth of foreign trade in the period of 1994-2010 for 5 Turkish Republics (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan) which have gained independence and Turkey is tested by panel data analysis (Pedroni Cointegration test and Panel Granger Causality Test). As a result of the analysis, it is concluded that there is a bi-directional causality relationship towards long-term export growth and a one-way causality to growth from imports. The same thing can not be said for the short term.

Ekanayake (1999), “Exports and Economic Growth in Asian Developing Countries: Cointegration and Error-Correction Models”, in the article for the 1960-1997 period, the relationship between export and economic growth is analyzed by using Cointegration and Error Correction Model (ECM) for eight emerging Asian countries (India, Indonesia, Korea, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka and Thailand). According to the results of the analysis, it is found that there is a two-way causality between exports and economic growth.

While export-based growth is observed in Malaysia, except in Sri Lanka, in the short run there is not a strong evidence for causality from exports towards growth in the other countries.

Dritsakis (2006), “Exports And Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation Of Using Causality Tests”, in the article the relationship between exports and economic growth for the three most exporting countries in the world (EU, USA, Japan) is examined using the Granger causality analysis error correction model (ECM).

According to the results of the analysis, it is concluded that there is no causality relationship between the variables for the EU and the USA while the export has a causal influence on the exports.

(17)

Çetintaş and Barişik (2008), “Export, Import and Economic Growth: The Case of Transition Economics”, in the article the relationship between import export and economic growth for the thirteen transition economiesis examined by Larsson panel cointegration test. According to test results; The GLE hypothesis is valid for these countries and shows that the growth is realized by the increase in imports (demand for goods and services).

Funke and Ruhwedel (2005), “Export Variety and Economic Growth in East European Transition Economies”, in the article fourteen Eastern European transition economies are examined using panel cointegration test data estimation technique. The test results show that the neo-classical ELG hypothesis is valid in the process of growth in export product diversity and investment priorities in capital intensive industries.

Stamatiou and Dristakis (2013), “A Casual Relationship between Exports, Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth for five European Countries: A panel data approach”, in the article the relationship between exports, foreign direct investment and economic growth for five European countries is examined using panel data (VAR) and the Granger causality test for the period 1970-2011.

According to the results of the analysis, it is seen that there is not a causal relationship between the direct economic growth and direct foreign investments and direct foreign investments and exports, which is a one-way causality relationship between exports and economic growth.

Balasubramanyam, Salisu and Sapsford (1996) examine the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the growth process is categorized according to the trade policies of countries such as EP (Export Promoting-export supported) and IP (Import Substituting- Import substitution). The growing influence of FDI seems to be stronger in countries that support EP trade policy than in countries that support IS trade policy.

IV. Econometric Methods and Findings

A cointegration analysis of the UK, Turkey, France, Germany, the Czech Republic and Poland aim to estimate the long-run relationship between imports, exports, capital and labor and economic growth and a causal analysis of the vector (ECM) error correction model . In this study, two-stage Engle-Granger (1987) test and Johansen-Juselius (1990) multiple cointegration test are used. The test consists of three basic steps:

0 1 1 2 n1 1

t t i i t t

Y  Y_  trend _ Y_ u

        (3)

(18)

97

Çetintaş and Barişik (2008), “Export, Import and Economic Growth: The Case of Transition Economics”, in the article the relationship between import export and economic growth for the thirteen transition economiesis examined by Larsson panel cointegration test. According to test results; The GLE hypothesis is valid for these countries and shows that the growth is realized by the increase in imports (demand for goods and services).

Funke and Ruhwedel (2005), “Export Variety and Economic Growth in East European Transition Economies”, in the article fourteen Eastern European transition economies are examined using panel cointegration test data estimation technique. The test results show that the neo-classical ELG hypothesis is valid in the process of growth in export product diversity and investment priorities in capital intensive industries.

Stamatiou and Dristakis (2013), “A Casual Relationship between Exports, Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth for five European Countries: A panel data approach”, in the article the relationship between exports, foreign direct investment and economic growth for five European countries is examined using panel data (VAR) and the Granger causality test for the period 1970-2011.

According to the results of the analysis, it is seen that there is not a causal relationship between the direct economic growth and direct foreign investments and direct foreign investments and exports, which is a one-way causality relationship between exports and economic growth.

Balasubramanyam, Salisu and Sapsford (1996) examine the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the growth process is categorized according to the trade policies of countries such as EP (Export Promoting-export supported) and IP (Import Substituting- Import substitution). The growing influence of FDI seems to be stronger in countries that support EP trade policy than in countries that support IS trade policy.

IV. Econometric Methods and Findings

A cointegration analysis of the UK, Turkey, France, Germany, the Czech Republic and Poland aim to estimate the long-run relationship between imports, exports, capital and labor and economic growth and a causal analysis of the vector (ECM) error correction model . In this study, two-stage Engle-Granger (1987) test and Johansen-Juselius (1990) multiple cointegration test are used. The test consists of three basic steps:

0 1 1 2 n1 1

t t i i t t

Y  Y_  trend _ Y_ u

        (3)

In the model, Yt refers to variables such as LRGDP LRIP, which are subject to the stationary test. Δ is the first degree difference term,

u

_tis the error term subject to the white noise process, and n is the optimalleg-length. In ADF tests, hypothesis and HA are generally used. Here, it is checked whether the ADF test statistics value is greater than the MacKinnon critical value as an absolute value. If the value of the t-statistic of the coefficient is greater than the Mac- Kinnon critical value, it is decided that the variable is stationary.

Otherwise, it means that variables are not stationary. Here, the lag- length used in the ADF test is determined by the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC).

Stage 1: Variables are subjected to pre-test, that is, unit root analyzes, and stationary levels are determined.

Stage 2: If the variables are in their first difference, the long term equilibrium relationship, that is, the cointegration relationship is estimated.

Stage 3: If there is a cointegration relationship between the variables (vector), the error correction model is estimated and the results of short-term causality are interpreted. First, in the study, unit root analyzes are performed to determine if the time series are stationary, then the cointegration and (error correction) models are put into operation. In the analysis, Eviews 9.1 econometrics package program is used.

Unit root tests are based on the analysis of time series and the determination of the level of stationary. The results obtained with the non-stationary series are ineffective reflecting the reality. In this study, Augmented Dickey-Fuller-ADF (1979) and Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt and Shin (KPSS) (1992) tests are used together to determine the stationary levels of the series more accurately. In the ADF test, it is usually constructed as hypothesis.

The data set for each country include real GDP (growth), real exports, real imports, capital stock and labor force. The data set obtained from the OECD and International Monetary Fund (IMF) databases is quarterly data, covering 2003: 1-2016: 1 for Turkey, England, Poland, Czech Republic, France and Germany. The natural logarithm of all variables is taken.

First, in Table 1, two different unit root tests were used to determine if the time series are stationary by ADF and KPSS tests.

The unit root test results show that all of variables contain unit roots I (1) at the level and they are just found stationary after taking their first degree differences.

(19)

Model: Yt = pYt-1 + ut, (ut = stochastic error term)

yt – yt-1 = (p-1) yt-1 + ut

When yt-1 is subtracted from both sides of the equation, the equation becomes (p-1) = y as follows.

Δyt = γyt-1 + ut

Ho: p =1 H1: p <1

(P-1) = 0 or γ = 0, the yt series contains a unit root. However, p 1 the series becomes stationary.

In the time series analysis, the data must be stationary. A predicted model of non-stationary yield usually results in spurious regression. The time series when the regression reflects a real relationship is closely related to the stationary¹.

In Table 2, the Johansen Cointegration test results are calculated by ECM (based on error correction model), taking 2 as the optimal lag length. The trace statistic and the λ-max test statistic indicate that the variables are cointegrated in the system. The cointegration relationship emphasizes the appropriateness of the existence of error correction model.

1Sevda Yapraklı, "The causality between export and economic growth: An Econometric Analysis on Turkey", METU Development Journal, (34) June, 2007, 104.

Table 1. Unit Root Test Results

Va

riablesGERMANYFRANCEUKPOLANDCZECK REP.TURKEY ADF KPSSADF KPSSADF KPSSADF KPSSADF KPSSADF KPSS Level GDP - 1.0210.886***- 1.8040.878* **

-0.3980.781** * -1.4990.

984* **

-1.9740.

798* **

-0.9820.

962* **

Exports- 1.4320.908***- 1.0040. 840* **

-1.5730.787** * 0.3010.

975* **

-1.2200.

951* **

-0.7930.

935* **

Imports- 0.9470.939***- 0.5200. 912* **

-1.1670.710** -0.7110.

940* **

-1.0940.

938* **

-1.6090.

884* **

Capital- 0.8220.769***- 2.875 *

0.322-1.3400.130-1.2260.

902* **

- 2.770*0.460*-2.2090.

802* **

Labor- 1.2820.675** - 0.2970. 839* **

-1.0120.504** -1.3460.

830* **

- 2.907*0.

777* **

-1.5930.

768* **

First Diff. GDP - 4.269 ***

0.045- 3.784 ***

0.120- 3.806* **

0.127-6.289***0.171- 3.272* *

0.238- 5.533* **

0.065 Exports- 4.283 ***

0.065- 4.520 ***

0.076- 7.118* **

0.080-5.193***0.075- 5.241* **

0.120- 8.636* **

0.060

(20)

99