Ticarette dışa bağımlılık ve Türkiye'nin dış ticareti üzerine etkileri : 1980-2010 ekonomik analizi
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(5) İÇİNDEKİLER. KISALTMALAR.................................................................................................................... vii TABLO LİSTESİ ........................................................................................................... ix ŞEKİL LİSTESİ ............................................................................................................ xii ÖZET............................................................................................................................. xiv SUMMARY ................................................................................................................... xv. GİRİŞ ............................................................................................................................... 1 BÖLÜM 1: DIŞ TİCARET VE BAĞIMLILIK İLİŞKİSİNİN TANIMI, KAPSAMI, BAĞIMLILIĞI ETKİLEYEN FAKTÖRLER VE EKONOMİK ETKİLERİ ....................................................................... .6 1.1. Dış Ticaretin Tanımı, Kapsamı ve Ekonomik Etkileri .............................................. 6 1.1.1. Dış Ticaretin Tanımı ve Önemi........................................................................ 6 1.1.2. Dış Ticaretin Amaçları ve Yararları ................................................................. 9 1.1.3. Ekonomik Kalkınmada Dış Ticaretin Rolü .................................................... 14 1.1.3.1. Dış Ticaret ve Kaynak Dağılımı Etkisi ............................................. 14 1.1.3.2. Disipline Edici İthalat Hipotezi......................................................... 15 1.1.3.3. Ölçek Ekonomileri Etkisi .................................................................. 17 1.1.3.4. Girdi Sağlama Etkisi ......................................................................... 18 1.1.4. Dış Ticaretin Ekonomik Etkileri .................................................................... 20 1.1.4.1. Dış Ticaretin İhracat Üzerindeki Etkileri .......................................... 20 1.1.4.2. Dış Ticaretin İthalat Üzerindeki Etkileri ........................................... 21 1.2. Dış Ticaretin Bağımlılık İlişkisi, Tanımı, Kapsamı ve Ekonomik Etkileri.............. 26 1.2.1. Dış Ticaret Yapısı ve Bağımlılığı .................................................................. 26 1.2.2. Dış Ticarette Bağımlılığın Nedenleri ve Kapsamı ......................................... 27 1.2.3. Dış Ticarette Bağımlılığın Ekonomi Üzerindeki Etkileri .............................. 30 1.3. Ticarette Dış Bağımlılığı Etkileyen Faktörler.......................................................... 33 1.3.1. Yapısal Faktörler ............................................................................................ 33 1.3.1.1. İstikrarsız Ekonomik Yapı ................................................................ 33 1.3.1.2. Özel Sektör Yatırımlarının Yetersizliği ............................................ 35 1.3.1.3.Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlarının Eksikliği ...................................... 36. i.
(6) 1.3.1.4. Düşük Verimlilik ve Enerji Maliyetleri ............................................ 37 1.3.1.5. İhracatın Tek Pazar ve Tek Ürüne Bağlı Yapısı ............................... 40 1.3.1.6. Faiz Oranlarındaki Değişmeler ve Faiz Oranlarına Bağlı Gelişmeler ......................................................................................... 42 1.3.2. Kurumsal Faktörler ........................................................................................ 45 1.3.2.1. Kamu İdaresinin Yapısı ..................................................................... 45 1.3.2.2. Dış Ticaret Faaliyetinde Bulunan İşletmelerin Yapısı ...................... 46 1.3.3. Dışsal Faktörler .............................................................................................. 47 1.3.3.1. Dünya Ticaret Örgütü ve Gümrük Birliğinin Olumsuz Etkileri ............................................................................................... 47 1.3.3.2. Dünya Ticaretindeki Rekabet Artışı .................................................. 48 1.3.4. Gümrük Birliği ve Dışa Açık Ekonomik Yapı............................................... 48 1.3.5. Doğrudan İthal Girdi Kullanımının Toplam Girdi Kullanımı İçerisindeki Önem .......................................................................................... 49 1.3.6. Döviz Kurlarındaki Gelişmeler ve Ulusal Paranın Aşırı Değerlenmesi.................................................................................................. 50 1.3.7. Üretim Yapısı ve Dönüşüm Süreci ................................................................ 52 1.3.7.1. İthal İkameci Sanayileşme Uygulaması ............................................ 53 1.3.7.2. Üretim Yapısındaki Dönüşüm Süreci ve Nedenleri .......................... 54 1.3.7.3. İhracata Dayalı Sanayileşme Uygulaması ve Sonuçları ................... 55 1.4. Gelişmiş Ülkelerde Ticarette Dışa Bağımlılık ve Ekonomik Etkileri ..................... 57 1.4.1. Gelişmiş Ülkelerin Dış Ticaret Yapısı ........................................................... 58 1.4.2. Gelişmiş Ülkelerin İthalat Düzeyi.................................................................. 65 1.4.3. Gelişmiş Ülkelerin İhracat Düzeyi ................................................................. 68 1.4.4. Gelişmiş Ülkelerdeki İhracatın İthalatı Karşılama Oranı ve Bağımlılık İlişkisi ............................................................................................................. 71 1.5. Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Ticarette Dışa Bağımlılık ve Ekonomik Etkileri ......... 74 1.5.1. Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerin Dış Ticaret Yapısı .............................................. 74 1.5.2. Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerin İthalat Düzeyi ..................................................... 80 1.5.3. Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerin İhracat Düzeyi .................................................... 84 1.5.4. Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerdeki İhracatın İthalatı Karşılama Oranı ve Bağımlılık İlişkisi ........................................................................................... 88. ii.
(7) BÖLÜM 2: TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİNDE DIŞ TİCARETİN GELİŞİMİ VE İHRACATIN İTHALATA BAĞIMLILIĞI ......................................... 93 2.1. 1980 Sonrası Türkiye’nin Dış Ticaretinin Genel Görünümü ve Gelişimi ............... 93 2.1.1. 1980 Öncesi Dönem ...................................................................................... 94 2.1.2. 1980 Sonrası Dönem ................................................................................... 111 2.1.2.1. Dışa Açık Büyüme, 24 Ocak 1980 Kararları ve Etkileri: 1980-1988 Dönemi ........................................................................ 111 2.1.2.2.Ekonomide Dönüşüm ..................................................................... 119 2.1.2.2.1. 1989-1993 Alt Dönemi ................................................... 119 2.1.2.2.2. 1994-1999 Alt Dönemi ................................................... 123 2.1.2.3. 2000’li Yıllar ve Krizler: 2000 – 2010 Dönemi ............................ 128 2.1.3. Türkiye’nin Dış Ticaretinin Dünya Ticareti İçerisindeki Payı ................... 138 2.1.4. Gümrük Birliği’nin Dış Ticaret Üzerine Etkiler ......................................... 144 2.2. 1980 Sonrası Dönemde Türkiye’nin Dış Ticaretinin Mal ve Faktöre Göre Değişimi ................................................................................................................ 148 2.2.1. 1980 Sonrası Dönemde Türkiye Ekonomisinde Cari Açık Sorunu ............ 148 2.2.2. Döviz Kuru Endeksindeki Gelişmelerin Türkiye’nin Dış Ticaretine Etkisi..................................................................................................................156. 2.2.3. Dış Ticaret Haddi Kavramı ve Türleri ........................................................ 162 2.2.3.1. Mal Değişimine Dayanan Dış Ticaret Hadleri ............................... 163 2.2.3.1.1. Net Değişim Ticaret Hadleri ......................................... 163 2.2.3.1.2. Gayri Safi Değişim Ticaret Hadleri .............................. 164 2.2.3.1.3. Gelir Ticaret Hadleri ..................................................... 165 2.2.3.2. Faktör Değişimine Dayanan Dış Ticaret Hadleri ......................... .166 2.2.3.2.1. Tek Faktörlü Ticaret Hadleri ......................................... 167 2.2.3.2.2. Çift Faktörlü Ticaret Hadleri ......................................... 167 2.2.3.3. Gönence Dayanan Dış Ticaret Hadleri.......................................... 168 2.2.4. 1980 Sonrası Türkiye’nin Dış Ticaret Hadleri ............................................ 168 2.3. 1980 Sonrası Dönemde Türkiye’de İthalatının Yapısı ve Gelişimi ....................... 176 2.3.1. İthalatı Düzenleyici Politikalar ................................................................... 177 2.3.1.1. İthalat Rejimi ve Gelişimi ............................................................. 177. iii.
(8) 2.3.1.1.1. 1980 Sonrası Dönemde Uygulanan İthalat Rejim ve Gelişimi ......................................................................... 178 2.3.1.1.1.1. Dış Ticarette Dönüşüm Süreci:1980-1989 Dönemi ....................................................... 178 2.3.1.1.1.2. AB ile Gümrük Birliği ve DTÖ süreci: 1990-1999 Dönemi ..................................... 180 2.3.1.1.1.3. Gümrük Birliği Sonrası Türkiye İthalatı .... 185 2.3.1.1.1.4. 2000’li Yıllar ve Krizler: 2000 – 2010 Dönemi ....................................................... 193 2.3.1.2. Türkiye İthalatının Yapısal ve Sektörel Analizi ........................... 197 2.3.1.2.1. İthalatın Sektörel Dağılımı ................................................ 197 2.3.1.2.2. İthalatın Mal Gruplarına Göre Dağılımı....................... 200 2.3.1.2.3. İthalatın Ülke Gruplarına Göre Dağılımı ..................... 204 2.3.1.3. Türkiye İthalatının Genel Görünümü ve Makro Ekonomik Değişkenler İle İlişkisi ................................................................. 210 2.3.1.3.1. Gayrisafi Yurtiçi Hasıla ve İthalat İlişkisi ................... 211 2.3.1.3.2. Döviz Kuru ve İthalat İlişkisi ....................................... 216 2.3.1.3.3. İstihdam ve İthalat İlişkisi ............................................ 224 2.3.1.3.4. Fiyatlar Genel Düzeyi ve İthalat İlişkisi ...................... 226 2.3.1.4. Türkiye İthalatının Genel Sorunları .............................................. 228 2.4. 1980 Sonrası Dönemde Türkiye’de İhracatının Yapısı ve Gelişimi ...................... 230 2.4.1. İhracat Kavramı ve İhracatı Belirleyen Unsurlar ........................................ 230 2.4.1.1. İhracatı Düzenleyici Politikalar ..................................................... 232 2.4.1.2. İhracatı Teşvik Politikaları ............................................................ 240 2.4.2. İhracat Rejimi ve Gelişimi .......................................................................... 244 2.4.2.1. 1980 Sonrası Dönemde Uygulanan İhracat Rejimi ve Gelişimi ......................................................................................... 244 2.4.2.1.1. Dış Ticarette Dönüşüm Süreci ve İhracata Yönelik Sanayileşme Stratejilerine Geçiş: 1980-1989 Dönemi ........................................................................ 245 2.4.2.1.2. Gümrük Birliği ve DTÖ Süreci 1990-1999 Dönemi ... 248 2.4.2.1.3. Gümrük Birliği Sonrası Türkiye İhracatı ..................... 253. iv.
(9) 2.4.2.1.4. 2000’li Yıllar ve Krizler: 2000 – 2010 Dönemi ........... 256 2.4.3. Türkiye İhracatının Yapısal ve Sektörel Analizi......................................... 259 2.4.3.1. İhracatın Mal Gruplarına Göre Dağılımı ....................................... 259 2.4.3.2. İhracatın Sektörel Dağılımı ........................................................... 262 2.4.3.3. İhracatın Ülke Gruplarına Göre Dağılımı ..................................... 270 2.4.4. İhracatın Makro Ekonomik Değişkenler ile İlişkisi .................................... 278 2.4.4.1. Gayrisafi Yurtiçi Hasıla ve İhracat İlişkisi .................................... 279 2.4.4.2. Döviz Kuru ve İhracat İlişkisi ....................................................... 285 2.4.4.3. İstihdam ve İhracat İlişkisi ............................................................ 292 2.4.4.4. Fiyatlar Genel Düzeyi ve İhracat İlişkisi....................................... 293 2.4.5. Türkiye İhracatının Genel Sorunları ........................................................... 295. BÖLÜM 3: TÜRKİYE İHRACATININ İTHAL GİRDİLERE BAĞIMLILIĞI: SEKTÖREL BAĞIMLILIK ANALİZİ ............................................... 297 3.1. İhracatın İthal Girdilere Bağımlılığının Girdi-Çıktı Modeli İle Analizi ................ 298 3.2. Literatür Özeti ........................................................................................................ 300 3.3. Yöntem ve Bulgular ............................................................................................... 303 3.3.1. Doğrudan Geri Bağlantı ............................................................................... 306 3.3.2. Doğrudan İleri Bağlantı ............................................................................... 307 3.3.3. Toplam Geri Bağlantı................................................................................... 307 3.3.4. Toplam İleri Bağlantı ................................................................................... 308 3.3.5. Doğrudan Dikey Uzmanlaşma Payı ............................................................. 308 3.3.6. Toplam Dikey Uzmanlaşma Payı................................................................. 309 3.4. Türkiye Uygulaması ve Sonuçlar ........................................................................... 310 3.5. 2003-2010 Dönemi Bağımlılığın Gelişimi ............................................................ 338 3.5.1. 2003-2010 Döneminde Bağımlılığın Hesaplanması ..................................... 341 3.6. 2003-2010 Döneminde Türk Ekonomisinde İhracatın İthal Girdilere Bağımlılığının Sektörler Açısından Değerlendirilmesi.......................................... 347 3.6.1. Radyo, Televizyon ve Haberleşme Araçları Sektörü .................................... 347 3.6.2. Kok Kömürü, Rafine Edilmiş Petrol Ürünleri ve Nükleer Yakıt Sektörü .......................................................................................................... 352 3.6.3. Motorlu Kara Taşıtı, Römork ve Yarı-Römork İmalatı Sanayi. v.
(10) Sektörü .......................................................................................................... 358 3.6.4. Başka Yerde Sınıflandırılmamış Elektrikli Makine ve Cihazların İmalatı Sektörü .............................................................................................. 365 3.6.5. Başka Yerde Sınıflandırılmamış Makine ve Teçhizat İmalatı ...................... 370 3.6.6. Ana Metal Sanayi .......................................................................................... 373 3.6.7. Metal Eşya Sektörü ....................................................................................... 379 3.6.8. Kimya Sektörü .............................................................................................. 383 3.6.9. Tekstil Sektörü .............................................................................................. 390 3.6.10.Plastik Sektörü ............................................................................................. 396. SONUÇ VE ÖNERİLER ............................................................................................ 403 KAYNAKLAR ............................................................................................................ 407 EKLER ......................................................................................................................... 442 ÖZGEÇMİŞ ................................................................................................................. 448. vi.
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