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Küresel İktisadi Krizin Türkiye İmalat Sanayine Etkileri

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Marmara Üniversitesi

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YIL 2010&ø/7;;,;, SAYI II, S. 23-45

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Nesrin SUNGUR ÇAKMAK

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Global economic crisis triggered by troubles in US financial system in 2007 has had dramatically negative effects on the levels of supply, employment and the welfare of the economies across the world. The spill over mechanism of the crisis is the way of the deterioration of the expectations, finance conditions and decline in the aggregate demand affecting the aggregate supply, employment and the gains negatively. Main aim of this study is to analyse the effects of global economic crisis

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Özet

$%'¶GH  \ÕOÕQGD ILQDQVDO VHNW|UGHNL VRUXQODUÕQ WHWLNOHGL÷L NUHVHO iktisadi kriz, dünya genelinde, ekonomilerin, üretim, istihdam ve refah düzeylerinde önemli derecede tDKULEDWD \RO DoPÕúWÕU .UL]LQ \D\ÕOPD PHNDQL]PDVÕ EHNOHQWLOHU ILQDQVPDQNRúXOODUÕWDOHSWHNLER]XOPDODUÕQUHWLPLVWLKGDPYHND]DQoODUÕROXPVX] HWNLOHPHVL úHNOLQGHGLU %X oDOÕúPDQÕQ WHPHO DPDFÕ NUHVHO LNWLVDGL NUL]LQ JHQHOGH Türkiye ekonomisi üzerindeki etkilerini özelde ise imalat sanayi üzerindeki etkilerini DQDOL] HWPHNWLU 7UNL\H HNRQRPLVL YH VDQD\LVLQLQ Lo YH GÕú úRNODUD NDUúÕ NÕUÕOJDQOÕ÷ÕQÕ D]DOWPDN LoLQ NUHVHO UHNDEHW JFQQ DUWÕUÕOPDVÕ YH GÕúD

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gerekmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler: .UHVHO(NRQRPLN.UL]7UNL\HøPDODW6DQD\L

THE EFFECTS OF GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS

ON TURKISH MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY

Abstract

* 3URI'U0DUPDUDhQLYHUVLWHVLøQJLOL]FHøNWLVDW%|OPQVXQJXU#PDUPDUDHGXWU g÷U*|U'U0DUPDUDhQLYHUVLWHVLøNWLVDW%|OPercansaridogan@marmara.edu.tr † %XoDOÕúPDQÕQLONKDOL7002%6DQD\L.RQJUHVL$QNDUD¶GDVXQXOPXúWXU

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on Turkish economy in general and on Turkish manufacturing industry in particular. It is necessary to develop economy policies increasing global competitiveness and reducing foreign dependency for Turkish economy and industry in order to decrease her fragility against the internal and external shocks.

Key Words: Global Economic Crisis, Turkish Manufacturing Industry

*LULú

Küresel iktisadi kriz, ülke ve bölge ekonomilerinde, üretim, istihdam ve UHIDK GH÷LúNHQOHUL EDúWD ROPDN ]HUH SHN oRN DODQGD |QHPOL GHUHFHGH ROXPVX] HWNLOHUH \RO DoPÕúWÕU .UL]LQ VHEHSOHUL KHU QH NDGDU $%' HNRQRPLVLQGH ILQDQV VLVWHPLQGHNL\DQOÕúNUHGLWD\ÕQODPDVÕQÕQVRQXoODUÕRODUDNJ|UOVHGHWHPHOVHEHSOHU DUDVÕQGD NDSLWDOL]PLQ ¶OHUGHQ JQP]H NHQGLVLQL \HQLGHQ UHWPH VUHFLQGH NDUúÕODúWÕ÷Õ VRUXQODU \HU DOPDNWDGÕU %X oDOÕúPDGD NUHVHO LNWLVDGL NUL]LQ JHQHO olarak Türkiye ekonomisine özelde ise Türkiye imalat sanayiine etkileri LQFHOHQPHNWLU øPDODW VDQD\L ]HULQGH NUL]LQ HWNL PHNDQL]PDVÕ EHNOHQWLOHUGHNL YH ILQDQVVLVWHPLQGHNLER]XOPD\DED÷OÕRODUDNGÕúYH LoWDOHSWHNLGDUDOPD ILQDQVPDQ LPNDQODUÕQGD ER]XOPD EXQODUD ED÷OÕ RODUDN UHWLPGH FLGGL RUanda daralma ve GHYDPÕQGD LVH LPDODW VDQD\LQGH LVWLKGDP YH FUHWOHU ]HULQGH |QHPOL G]H\GH ER]XOPDODURODUDNNDUúÕPÕ]DoÕNPDNWDGÕU

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'HWD\OÕELOJLLoLQ,0)World Economic Outlook, Washington, October 2010, s.1-20 -15 -12 -9 -6 -3 0 3 6 9 12 15 -15 -12 -9 -6 -3 0 3 6 9 12 15 2005Q 1 2005Q 2 2005Q 3 2005Q 4 2006Q 1 2006Q 2 2006Q 3 2006Q 4 2007Q 1 2007Q 2 2007Q 3 2007Q 4 2008Q 1 2008Q 2 2008Q 3 2008Q 4 2009Q 1 2009Q 2 2009Q 3 2009Q 4 2010Q 1 2010Q 2 2010Q 3 2010Q 4 2011Q 1 2011Q 2 2011Q 3 2011Q 4 ƺŶLJĂŬŽŶŽŵŝƐŝǀĞ^ĞĕŝůŵŝƔŬŽŶŽŵŝůĞƌZĞĞů'^z7,;ĞLJƌĞŬƂŶĞŵ͕LJŽLJ͕йͿ

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3 B.Keeley-P.Love, From Crisis to Recovery The Causes, Course and Consequences of

the Great Recession, OECD, 2010, s.19

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5 J. Bhagwati, “The Capital Myth: The Difference between Trade in Widgets and Dollars”,

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ABD’deki finansal krizler ve fiyat EDORQODUÕDUDVÕQGDNLLOLúNLLoLQEN]&05HLQKDUW-K. S. Rogoff. "Is The 2007 U.S. Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison" NBER Working Paper 13761, January 2008

8

B.Keeley-P.Love, From Crisis to Recovery ...ag.m. s.19-22 9

'HWD\OÕELOJLLoLQ0'%RUG-J. Landon-Lane, "The Lessons from the Banking Panics in the United States in the 1930s for the Financial Crisis of 2007-2008" NBER Working Paper No. 16365, September 2010

10

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28

Tablo-1’de küresel krizin Türkiye ekonomisi üzerindeki makroekonomik HWNLOHUL YHULOPLúWLU .UL]H ED÷OÕ RODUDN Lo YH GÕú ILQDQVPDQ YH WDOHS NRúXOODUÕQÕQ ER]XOPDVÕ HNRQRPLQLQ DU] FHSKHVLQL GH ROXPVX] HWNLOHPLúWLU %XQD J|UH 7UNL\H HNRQRPLVL *6<ø+¶VÕ   \ÕOÕQGD SL\DVD IL\DWODUÕ\OD ¶H YDUDQ GDUalma J|VWHUPLúWLU$QFDNEXGDUDOPD\DNDUúÕQ\ÕOÕQGD\DSÕODQUHIRUPODUVD\HVLQGH  \ÕOÕQGD \DNODúÕN ¶\H YDUDQ E\PH EHNOHQWLVL LOH NUL]GHQ HQ KÕ]OÕ YH HQ JoOoÕNPDSHUIRUPDQVÕJ|VWHUHQONHOHUDUDVÕQGD\HUDOPÕúWÕU11 Tablo-7UNL\H(NRQRPLVL6HoLOPLú0DNURHNRQRPLN*|VWHUJHOHU . IL\DWODUÕ\OD'H÷LúLP 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010T 2011T Özel Tüketim 4.6 5.5 –0.3 –2.3 5.7 5.8 Kamu Tüketimi 8.4 6.5 1.7 7.8 2.1 2.8 %UW6DELW6HUPD\H2OXúXPX 13.3 3.1 –6.2 –19.2 13.2 8.1

Toplam Yurtiçi Talep 6.7 5.7 –1.0 –6.4 8.8 5.9

øKUDFDW PDO-hizmet) 6.6 7.3 2.7 –5.4 8.4 8.8 øWKDODW PDO-hizmet) 6.9 10.7 –4.1 –14.4 16.8 13.6 1HWøKUDFDW –0.3 –1.3 1.7 2.8 –2.1 –1.6 *6<ø+ 3L\DVD)L\DWODUÕ\OD  6.8 5.0 0.5 –4.9 6.8 4.5 *6<ø+'HIODWRU 9.5 5.9 12.1 5.5 7.1 6.5 TÜFE 9.6 8.8 10.4 6.3 9.5 6.6 øúVL]OLN 10.0 10.1 10.7 13.7 14.9 15.9 &DUL$oÕN *6<ø+¶QÕQ¶VL  –6.1 –5.9 –5.6 –2.2 –4.5 –5.9

Kaynak: OECD, Economic Surveys: Turkey, s.21, T : OECD Tahmini

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ùHNLO-¶WH6,7&5HYVÕQÕIOPDVÕQDJ|UHVDQD\LLKUDFDW\DSÕVÕQGDVHoLOPLú NDOHPOHUYHULOPLúWLU%XQDJ|UHD\OÕNED]GDGDUDOPDODU¶XQLON\DUÕVÕER\XQFD WRSODP LKUDFDW EDúWD ROPDN ]HUH PDNLQH XODúWÕUPD YH   LúOHQPLú PDO VDQD\LQGH ¶ÕDúPÕúWÕU -100.0 -50.0 0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 -80.0 -60.0 -40.0 -20.0 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 Ja n -0 6 Ma r-0 6 Ma y-0 6 Ju l-0 6 Se p -0 6 No v-0 6 Ja n -0 7 Ma r-0 7 Ma y-0 7 Ju l-0 7 Se p -0 7 No v-0 7 Ja n -0 8 Ma r-0 8 Ma y-0 8 Ju l-0 8 Se p -0 8 No v-0 8 Ja n -0 9 Ma r-0 9 Ma y-0 9 Ju l-0 9 Se p -0 9 No v-0 9 Ja n -1 0 Ma r-1 0 Ma y-1 0 Ju l-1 0 /^/͕ZĞǀ͘ϯ^ŦŶŦĨůĂŵĂƐŦŶĂ'ƂƌĞ^ĞĕŝůŵŝƔ7ŵĂůĂƚ^ĂŶĂLJŝ<ŽůůĂƌŦǀĞdŽƉůĂŵ7ŚƌĂĐĂƚzĂƉŦƐŦ;LJŽLJ͕йͿ 'ŦĚĂͺ7ĐĞĐĞŬ dĞŬƐƚŝů DĞƚĂůͺƔLJĂͺ^ŶLJ DĂŬŝŶĞͺdĞĕŚnj DŽƚŽƌůƵͺdĂƔŦƚ 'ŝLJŝŵ ŶĂͺDĞƚĂůͺ^ŶLJ;^ĂŒͺŬƐĞŶͿ dŽƉůŵͺ7ŚƌĂĐĂƚ 7ŵĂůĂƚͺ^ŶLJ -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 Ja n -0 6 DĂƌ -0 6 May -0 6 ů-0 6 Se p -0 6 ǀ -0 6 Ja n -0 7 DĂƌ -0 7 May -0 7 ů-0 7 Se p -0 7 ǀ -0 7 Ja n -0 8 DĂƌ -0 8 May -0 8 ů-0 8 Se p -0 8 ǀ -0 8 Ja n -0 9 DĂƌ -0 9 May -0 9 ů-0 9 Se p -0 9 ǀ -0 9 Ja n -1 0 DĂƌ -1 0 May -1 0 ů-1 0 ^/dZĞǀ͘ϯ^ŦŶŦĨůĂŵĂƐŦŶĂ'ƂƌĞ^ĞĕŝůŵŝƔ^ĂŶĂLJŝ<ŽůůĂƌŦŶŦŶ7ŚƌĂĐĂƚzĂƉŦƐŦ;й͕LJŽLJͿ dŽƉůŵͺ7ŚƌĂĐĂƚ 'ŦĚĂͺ,ĂLJǀĂŶ <ŝŵLJĂͺ^ĂŶĂLJŝ 7ƔůĞŶŵŝƔͺDĂů DĂŵƺůͺĞƔLJĂ DĂŬŝŶĞͺhůĂƔƚŦƌŵĂ ùHNLO-,6,&5HY6ÕQÕIOPDVÕQD*|UHøPDODW6DQD\LøKUDFDWÕ \R\ .D\QDN7&0%78ø. ùHNLO-6,7&5HY6ÕQÕIOPDVÕQD*|UH6DQD\LøKUDFDW<DSÕVÕ \R\ .D\QDN7&0%78ø.

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35

0 1 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Jan -9 1 ů-9 1 Jan -9 2 ů-9 2 Jan -9 3 ů-9 3 Jan -9 4 ů-9 4 Jan -9 5 ů-9 5 Jan -9 6 ů-9 6 Jan -9 7 ů-9 7 Jan -9 8 ů-9 8 Jan -9 9 ů-9 9 Jan -0 0 ů-0 0 Jan -0 1 ů-0 1 Jan -0 2 ů-0 2 Jan -0 3 ů-0 3 Jan -0 4 ů-0 4 Jan -0 5 ů-0 5 Jan -0 6 ů-0 6 Jan -0 7 ů-0 7 Jan -0 8 ů-0 8 Jan -0 9 ů-0 9 Jan -1 0 ů-1 0 dŽƉůĂŵ^ĂŶĂLJŝmƌĞƚŝŵŝ͕7ŚƌĂĐĂƚ͕7ƚŚĂůĂƚǀĞŝůĞƔŝŬPŶĐƺ'ƂƐƚĞƌŐĞ;LJŽLJ͕йͿ ZĞƐĞƐLJŽŶͺƂŶĞŵŝ dŽƉůͺ7ŚƌĂĐĂƚ dŽƉůĂŵ^ĂŶĂLJŝ mƌĞƚŝŵŝ;й͕^Ϳ dŽƉůͺ7ƚŚĂůĂƚ ͘PŶĐƺͺ'ƐƚƌŐĞ 0 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 Ja n -9 1 ů-9 1 Ja n -9 2 ů-9 2 Ja n -9 3 ů-9 3 Ja n -9 4 ů-9 4 Ja n -9 5 ů-9 5 Ja n -9 6 ů-9 6 Ja n -9 7 ů-9 7 Ja n -9 8 ů-9 8 Ja n -9 9 ů-9 9 Ja n -0 0 ů-0 0 Ja n -0 1 ů-0 1 Ja n -0 2 ů-0 2 Ja n -0 3 ů-0 3 Ja n -0 4 ů-0 4 Ja n -0 5 ů-0 5 Ja n -0 6 ů-0 6 Ja n -0 7 ů-0 7 Ja n -0 8 ů-0 8 Ja n -0 9 ů-0 9 Ja n -1 0 ů-1 0 7ŵĂůĂƚ^ĂŶĂLJŝmƌĞƚŝŵ͕7ŚƌĂĐĂƚ͕7ƚŚĂůĂƚKƌĂŶŦǀĞŝůĞƔŝŬPŶĐƺ'ƂƐƚĞƌŐĞ;LJŽLJ͕йͿ ZĞƐĞƐLJŽŶͺƂŶĞŵŝ dŽƉůͺ7ŵĂůĂƚͺ^ĂŶĂLJŝͺmƌĞƚŝŵŝ;й͕^Ϳ 7ŵĂůĂƚͺ^ŶLJͺ7ŚƌĂĐĂƚ 7ŵĂůĂƚͺ^ŶLJͺ7ƚŚĂůĂƚ ͘PŶĐƺͺ'ƐƚƌŐĞ ùHNLO-7RSODPøKUDFDWøWKDODW6DQD\LhUHWLPL%gQF*|VWHUJH \R\ .D\QDN7&0%78ø. .D\QDN7&0%78ø. ùekil-øPDODW6DQD\LhUHWLPøKUDFDWøWKDODW2UDQÕYH%gQF*|VWHUJH(yoy,%)

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36

7UNL\H HNRQRPLVL LoLQ WRSODP LKUDFDW YH VDQD\L PDOODUÕ LKUDFDWÕQGDNL GDUDOPD LPDODW VDQD\LQLQ WP DOW NROODUÕQGD NHQGLVLQL KHU ELU VHNW|UQ HWNLOHQPH GHUHFHVLQH SDUHOHO RODUDN UHWLP LVWLKGDP YH ND]DQo ND\ÕSODUÕ RODUDN NHQGLVLQL J|VWHUPLúWLU

ùHNLO-15’te Türkiye ekonomisi için toplam ihracat, toplam ithalat ve WRSODP VDQD\L UHWLPLQGHNL GDUDOPD G]H\L YHULOPLúWLU %XQD J|UH WP EX kalemlerdeki daralmalar, 1994, 1997-98 ve 2000-01 krizelerinde daha derin olarak NDUúÕPÕ]D oÕNPÕúWÕU 6RQ NUL]LQ NUHVHO WDOHEL YH ILQDQVPDQ NRúXOODUÕQÕ ER]PDVÕ 7UNL\H HNRQRPLVLQLQ |QFHNL NUL]OHUH |]HOOLNOH LKUDFDWWD YH GÕú ILQDQVPDQGD GDKD GHULQHWNLOHQPHVLQH\RODoPÕúWÕU$QFDNONHHNRQRPLVLQGHQGDKD|QFHNLNUL]OHUGHQ DOGÕ÷Õ GHUVOHUH ED÷OÕ RODUDN \DSWÕ÷Õ G]HQOHPHOHU |]ellikle finansal sektörün NÕUÕOJDQOÕ÷ÕQÕD]DOWDUDNONHHNRQRPLVLQLQGDKDJoOGXUPDVÕQÕVD÷ODPÕúWÕUùHNLO-¶GDùHNLO-¶WHNLQHED÷OÕRODUDNWRSODPLPDODWVDQD\LLKUDFDWÕLWKDODWÕYHUHWLP G]H\OHULYHULOPLúWLU%XQDJ|UHNUL]HED÷OÕRODUDNGÕúYHiç talepte azalma, sektörel UHWLPL ROXPVX] HWNLOHPLú ¶XQ LON oH\UH÷LQGH LPDODW VDQD\L UHWLPLQGH ¶OHUH LKUDFDW YH LWKDODWÕQGD LVH ¶ODUÕ DúDQ  GDUDOPDODUD \RO DoPÕúWÕU *|UOHELOHFH÷L JLEL  LPDODW VDQD\LQGHNL GDUDODPÕQ HQ E\N VHEHEL GÕú YH iç ILQDQVPDQ YH WDOHS NRúXOODUÕQ ER]XOPDVÕGÕU øKUDFDWÕQ VHNW|UHO GDUDOPD SURILOL WRSODP YH LPDODW VDQD\LLQGHNL VHNW|UOHULQ UHWLP LVWLKGDP YH NDUOÕOÕN DoÕVÕQGD GDUDOPDSURILOLQLúHNLOOHQGLUPLúWLU

7UNL\HHNRQRPLVLQGHLPDODWVDQD\LQGHNLGDUDOPD\ÕYHVRQXoODUÕQÕ7DEOR-2’den, Tablo-7’ye kadar verilen verilerden izleyebiliriz.

Tablo-¶GH %(& VÕQÕIODPDVÕQD J|UH LKUDFDW PLNWDU HQGHNVOHUL YHULOPLúWLU Buna göre, genel ihracat miktar endeksinde daralma 2008Q4’ten, 2009Q3’e kadar VUPú ROXS 4¶GH GDUDOPD ¶\D XODúDUDN GLS \DSPÕúWÕU $OW VHNW|UOHUH EDNWÕ÷ÕPÕ]GDHQE\NGDUDOPDODU\DWÕUÕPPDOODUÕQGD4¶GHVDQD\LLOH LOJLOL WDúÕPDFÕOÕN DUDo YH JHUHoOHULQGH  DUD PDOODUÕQGD 4¶GH  DOW VHNW|UOHUGH ¶ODUD YDUDQ GDUDOPD WNHWLP PDOODUÕQGD 4¶GH  DOW sektörlerde özellikle binek otomobillerde %45’lere varan daralmalar ortaya oÕNPÕúWÕU

Tablo-¶WH ,6,& 5HY VÕQÕIODPDVÕQD J|UH LKUDFDW PLNWDU HQGHNVOHUL YHULOPLúWLU %XQD J|UH 4¶GH PDGHQFLOLNWH GDUDOPD ¶OHUH \DNODúPÕúWÕU øPDODWVDQD\LQGHLKUDFDWPLNWDUHQGHNVLQGHGDUDOPD4¶WH¶OHEDúODPÕú 4¶GH ¶\OH GLS \DSPÕú YH 4¶WH  E\PH\OH GDUDOPD JHULGH EÕUDNÕOPÕúWÕU øPDODW VDQD\L DOW VHNW|UOHUGH GDUDOPD 4 YH 4 ER\XQFD oHúLWOL G]H\OHUGH JHUoHNOHúPLúWLU (Q ID]OD GDUDOPD ¶OHUH XODúDQ GDUDOPD\OD motorlu NDUDWDúÕWÕVHNW|UQGHRUWD\DoÕNPÕúWÕUg]HOOLNOH$YUXSDE|OJHVLQHLKUDFDW \DSDQDOWVHNW|UOHUGHGDUDOPDRUDQÕGDKD\NVHNROPXúWXU

Tablo-¶WH1$&(5HYVÕQÕIODPDVÕQDJ|UHVDQD\LNROODUÕQGDUHWLP\DSÕVÕ YHULOPLúWLU%XQDJ|UHoH\UHNED]GDWRSODPVDnayi üretiminde daralma, 2008Q3’le EDúODPÕú KÕ]OD DUWDUDN 4¶GH ¶\H XODúDUDN GLS \DSPÕú YH DQFDN 4¶WH ¶OLN ELU E\PH LOH NUL]LQ HWNLOHULQL JHULGH EÕUDNDELOPLúWLU $\QÕ úHNLOGH LPDODW VDQD\LQGH  UHWLPGH GDUDOPD 4¶WH ¶OD EDúODPÕú 4¶GH¶OHGLS\DSPÕúYHDQFDN4¶WH¶ONE\PH\OHGDUDOPD JHULGHEÕUDNÕOPÕúWÕUøPDODWVDQD\LQGHED]ÕDOWVHNW|UOHUGHUHWLPGDUDOPDVÕQÕQ \ÕOÕEDúODUÕQDNDGDUX]DQGÕ÷ÕJ|]OHPOHQPHNWHGLU(QID]ODGDUDOPD¶ODUDXODúDQ

(15)

37

daralPD\OD PRWRUOX NDUD WDúÕWÕ VHNW|UQGH RUWD\D oÕNPÕúWÕU  g]HOOLNOH $YUXSD E|OJHVLQHUHWLP\DSDQDOWVHNW|UOHUGHGDUDOPDRUDQÕGDKD\NVHNROPXúWXU

Tablo-¶WH 7UNL\H HNRQRPLVL LPDODW VDQD\L YH DOW NROODUÕQGD NDSDVLWH NXOODQÕP RUDQODUÕ YHULOPLúWLU %XQD J|UH LPDODW VDQD\LQGH NDSDVLWH NXOODQÕP RUDQÕQGD LYPH ND\EÕ 4¶WH EDúODPÕú 4¶GH GLS \DSPÕú YH GDKD VRQUD WRSDUODQPD\D EDúODPÕúWÕU <LQH HQ E\N GDUDOPD DOW VHNW|U ED]ÕQGD PRWRUOX NDUD WDúÕWÕQGD¶ODUD\DNODúDQGDUDOPDODUODJ|UOPúWU*ÕGDVD÷OÕNWWQNROODUÕQGD GDUDOPD J|UHFHOL RODUDN GúN NDOÕUNHQ |]HOOLNOH JHOLU WDOHS HVQHNOL÷L \NVHN RODQ VHNW|UOHUGHGDUDOPDG]H\LGHJHOLUND\ÕSODUÕQDED÷OÕRODUDN\NVHNVH\UHWPLúWLU

Tablo-¶GD 1$&( 5HY VÕQÕIODPDVÕQD J|UH VDQD\L NROODUÕQGD LVWLKGDP \DSÕVÕ YHULOPLúWLU %XQD J|UH oH\UHN ED]GD WRSODP VDQD\L LVWLKGDPÕQGD GDUDOPD 4¶OHEDúODPÕúKÕ]ODDUWDUDN4¶GH¶DXODúDUDNGLS\DSPÕúYHDQFDN 4¶GH¶OLNELUE\PHLOH NUL]LQHWNLOHULQL \DYDú \DYDú JHULGHEÕUDNPD\D EDúODPÕúWÕU $\QÕúHNLOGHLPDODWVDQD\LQGHLVWLKGDPGDGDUDOPD4¶WH¶OH EDúODPÕú 4¶GH ¶OH GLS \DSPÕú YH DQFDN 4¶GH ¶OLN ELU E\PH LOH NUL]LQ HWNLOHULQL \DYDú \DYDú JHULGH EÕUDNPD\D EDúODPÕúWÕU øPDODW VDQD\LQGH ED]Õ DOW VHNW|UOHUGH LVWLKGDPGD GDUDOPDQÕQ   \ÕOÕ EDúODUÕQD NDGDU X]DQGÕ÷Õ J|]OHPOHQPHNWHGLU (Q ID]OD GDUDOPD ¶OHUOH PDNLQH YH HNLSPDQ kuruluPYHRQDUÕPÕDUGÕQGDQ¶OHUHYDUDQGDUDOPD\ODD÷DoUQOHULYHPRWRUOX NDUDWDúÕWÕVHNW|UQGHRUWD\DoÕNPÕúWÕU

Tablo-7’de N$&( 5HY VÕQÕIODPDVÕQD J|UH VDQD\L NROODUÕQGD EUW PDDú RUDQODUÕQGDGH÷LúLP\DSÕVÕYHULOPLúWLU%XQDJ|UHoH\UHNED]GDWRSODPVDQD\LEUW PDDú RUDQODUÕQGD GDUDOPD 4¶GH ¶OH EDúODPÕú 4¶GH ¶D XODúDUDN GLS \DSPÕú YH 4¶WH ¶OLN ELU E\PH LOH NUL]LQ HWNLOHULQL \DYDú \DYDú JHULGH EÕUDNPD\D EDúODPÕúWÕU $\QÕ úHNLOGH LPDODW VDQD\LQGH  4¶GH ¶\OHEDúODPÕú4¶GH¶\HXODúDUDNGLS\DSPÕúYH4¶WH¶OLN ELUE\PHLOHNUL]LQHWNLOHULQL \DYDú \DYDúJHULGHEÕUDNPD\DEDúODPÕúWÕU(QID]OD daralma, %45’lerle, makine ve ekipman kuruluPYHRQDUÕPÕDUGÕQGDQPRWRUOXNDUD WDúÕWÕDQDPHWDOVDQ\LYHWHNVWLOVHNW|UQGHRUWD\DoÕNPÕúWÕU

7UNL\H LPDODW VDQD\LLQLQ GÕúD ILQDQVPDQ WHNQRORML DUD PDOÕ DoÕVÕQGDQ ED÷ÕPOÕOÕ÷Õ LúJF QLWHOL÷L YH WRSODP IDNW|U YHULPOLOL÷L DoÕVÕQGDQ UHNDEHW JFQQ ROPDVÕ JHUHNHQLQ DOWÕQGD ROPDVÕ Lo YH GÕú úRNODUD NDUúÕ NÕUÕOJDQOÕ÷ÕQÕ DUWÕUPDNWDGÕU (7D\PD] YH GL÷  12

12(7D\PD](9R\YRGD.<ÕOPD]7UNL\HøPDODW6DQD\LLQGH<DSÕVDO'|QVP

hUHWNHQOLNYH7HNQRORMLN'H÷LVPH'LQDPLNOHUL0(78(5&:RUNLQJ3DSHUVLQ(FRQRPics 08/04, November 2008, s.95.

YXUJXODGÕ÷Õ JLEL Türkiye ekonomisi ve sanayisinin \NVHN E\PH KÕ]ODUÕQÕQ VUHNOLOL÷L YH VUGUOHELOLUOL÷L WHNQRORMLN GH÷LúLP VUHFLQLQKÕ]ODQGÕUÕOPDVÕWHNQLNHWNLQOLNG]H\LQLQDUWWÕUÕOPDVÕYHVHNW|UOHU-DUDVÕYH Lú\HUOHUL-DUDVÕ\DSÕVDOG|QúPQJHUoHNOHúWLULOPHVLQHED÷OÕGÕU%X\|QGHELUDWÕOÕP ise yeni teknolojilerLQJHOLúWLULOPHVLPHYFXWWHNQRORMLOHUL\D\JÕQODúPDVÕYHHWNLQELU úHNLOGH NXOODQÕOPDVÕ YH LúJFQQ H÷LWLP G]H\L YH NDOLILNDV\RQXQXQ DUWWÕUÕOPDVÕQÕ VD÷OD\DQX]XQVROXNOXYHWXWDUOÕVDQD\LSROLWLNDODUÕLOHJHUoHNOHúWLULOHELOHFHNWLU

(16)

Pro f. Dr. Nesrin S U NGUR ÇAK M AK* Dr. Erca n 6 $5,'2ö$1

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B E C S INIF L A M A S I 2007Q 1 2007Q 2 2007Q 3 2007Q 4 2008Q 1 2008Q 2 2008Q 3 2008Q 4 2009Q 1 2009Q 2 2009Q 3 2009Q 4 2010Q 1 2010Q 2 2010Q * ( 1( / ø+ 5$&$7 0 ø. 7 $5 ( 1'( . 14. 37 13. 61 10. 9 7 .3 9 18. 44 9. 11 9. 7 -9. 05 -9 .0 7 -16. 06 -11. 73 8. 58 -1 .8 6 17. 3 6 1-Y at ir im (S er m aye ) M alla ri 38.98 25.46 34.56 27.89 23.5 25.29 16.03 -20.59 -40.57 -38.24 -33.14 -0.28 14.96 16.81 11.21 1. 1-Y a ti ri m ( S e rm aye ) M a ll a ri (T a sim a cilik A ra cla ri H a ri c) 36.87 23.9 15.56 10.77 12.65 16.75 12.95 -6.04 -12.86 -21.53 -15.07 8.27 11.2 24.67 14.9 1.2-S an ayi i i le I lg ili T as im ac ilik A rac v e G er ec le ri 40.5 26.73 52.91 41.74 30.59 31.38 18.24 -30.2 -56.58 -49.17 -46.56 -7.95 19.27 8.78 7.31 2-Ha m m ad de ( A ra M alla r) 14.81 15.96 13.9 13.45 29.29 14.53 15.05 -3.3 0.1 -15 -11.92 10.07 -11.32 22.35 9.43 2.1-S an ayi i I ci n I sl em G or m em is M adde le r 4.78 0.62 25.94 4.64 20.28 35.83 27.85 -13.4 -29.04 -26.08 -4.73 30 44.73 31.76 6.2 2.2-S an ayi i I ci n I sl em G or m u s M adde le r 11.8 15.2 9.64 11.89 38.9 17.9 16.28 1.83 12.86 -11.72 -10.21 10.39 -23.37 19.41 8.8 2.3-Y ati ri m M al la ri n in A k sam v e P ar cal ar i 29.68 28.19 29.46 17.23 9.23 5.59 5.26 -7.46 -21.88 -24.29 -24.02 1.01 7.59 30.92 35.32 2.4-Tas imac ilik A ra cla ri n in A k sa m ve P ar cal ar i 20.76 26.08 18.7 9.76 18.42 5.9 0.79 -22.03 -37.08 -34.51 -25.05 7.85 27.27 40.24 25.68 2.5-E sa si Y iye ce k v e I ce ce k ol an Is le n m is H ammad de le r -4.97 -24.68 5.85 -0.29 -7.86 1.38 19.73 43.24 26.63 75.4 6.42 3.42 -1.5 -7.94 18.26 2.6-I sl em G or m u s D ige r Y ak it v e Y agl ar 48.79 33.53 41.43 53.58 3.43 -2.74 23.59 -14.75 -46.44 -22.39 -11 -3.86 74.38 12.93 -25.35 3-T uk et im M alla ri 10.61 7.81 3.12 -2.5 4.72 -2.67 0.3 -11.77 -16.17 -9.61 -3.87 8.86 14 12.3 0.81 3.1-Bi n ek O tomob iller i 25.52 18.08 9.85 14.2 34 10.72 15.45 -38.81 -45.6 -31.51 -2.67 52.61 60.13 11.44 -27.32 3.2-D ayan ik li Tu k eti m M al la ri -6.16 -3.31 2.71 -9.48 1.5 1.11 -3.84 -13.97 -18.4 -12.2 -3.19 0.37 13.81 11.71 -3.55 3.3-Y ar i D ayan ik li Tu k eti m M al la ri 15.33 14.2 6.85 1.59 0.42 -8.2 -8.83 -15.15 -14.6 -8.97 -10.4 8.56 8.22 11.27 13.96 3.4-D ayan ik si z Tu k eti m M al la ri 7.28 12.06 -3.78 -5.92 -1.19 -11.02 1.29 -7.97 -12.97 -3.5 -6.3 10.58 14.58 12.7 12.36 3.5-E sa si Y iye ce k v e I ce ce k O la n Is le n me mi s Tu k eti m M al la ri 29.26 -4.23 -13.41 -16.22 -16.3 -15.69 -5.38 20.23 27.29 33.35 20.51 0.03 -2.81 7.87 -3.96 3.6-E sa si Y iye ce k v e I ce ce k O la n Is le n mi s Tu k eti m M al la ri 13.07 6.73 10.37 -1.57 -6.75 0.87 6.17 3 9.33 5.74 -0.86 6.95 7.81 14.93 13.98 3.7-M otor Be n zi n i v e D ige r H afi f Y agl ar -18.55 -3.09 -1.39 2.74 67.08 23.39 20.2 2.19 -45.36 -24.17 -1.87 -30.28 -4.99 18.09 -9.99 Ta blo -7  UN L\H(N RQ R P LV L%( &6 ÕQ ÕIOD P DV ÕQ D* |UHø K UDFDW 0 LN WDU( Q G HN VOHUL dH\UHN '|Q HP \R\ .D \QD N 7 &0%7 8 ø.  *: 20 10Q3 , Te mm u z-$ ÷XV WRV ¶XN DS VDU

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Türk devlet te~kilat~n~n ~slam âleminde kuvvetli ve bariz tesirler yapmas~, bilhassa, Büyük Selçuki Devleti'nin kurulu~undan sonrad~r: Abbâsi halifele- rini nüfuzlar~~ alt~na