Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Cari İşlemler Dengesinin 1980 Sonrası Dönemde Gelişimi ve Finansmanı

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Marmara Üniversitesi øø%)'HUJLVL

YIL 2010&ø/7;;IX, SAYI II, S. 173-195

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Anahtar Kelimeler: Tasarruf-<DWÕUÕP $oÕ÷Õ &DUL øúOHP 'HQJHVL 'Õú

Finansman KD\QDNODUÕ

PROCESS AND FINANCING OF CURRENT ACCOUNT

BALANCE IN DEVELOPING COUNTIES POST 1980

Abstract

In this study development and financing of current account balance in the period between the years of 1980-2009 in the developing countries will be inspected generally and on the basis of country groups. Proportional analysis method has been used under the scope of study. Development of current account balance has been inspected in the context of goods, service, investment and transfer balance. Types and continuity of financing sources are imported as well as size of this deficit, interm of sustainability of current account deficit in the developing countries. In this context, private foreign capital investment, foreign borrowing and development of reserve assets have been inspected in the financing of current account balance.

Keywords: Saving-Investment Gap, Current Account Balance, Sources of

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GSMH = C + I + G + X – M (1)

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GSMH = C + S + T + Tr (2)

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X – M – Tr = (S – I) + (T – G) (3)

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Jeffrey Sachs, “The Current Account and Macroeconomic Adjustment in the 1970s”,

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Kaynak: World Economic Database, April 2010.

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5

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Kaynak: World Economic Database, April 2010.

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(7)

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13

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9 0XKDPPHW$NGLú³&DUL$oÕN.UL]+DEHUFLVLPL"´ http://makdis.pamukkale.edu.tr/currentdeficit.htm, Çevrimiçi, 05.08.2010

10_{Radelet, S. and Sachs, “The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis”, NBER Working}

Paper, No. 6680, August 1998, s.3

11

Freund, L. C., “Current Accont Adjustment in Industrialized Countries”, International

Finance Discussion Papers, No, (692) December: 2000, p.3

12

Edwards, S., “The End of Large Current Account Deficits, 1970-2002: Are There Lessons For The United States?”, NBER Working Papers, No: 11669, 2006, s.206

13

McGettigan, Donal, “Current Account and External Sustainability in the Baltics, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union--Issues in Transition”, IMF Occasional

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16

UNCTAD (2008)’e göre GOÜ’OHUH \|QHOHQ XOXVODUDUDVÕ VHUPD\H DNÕPODUÕ o GDOJD\D D\UÕODELOLU øON GDOJD ¶OHULQ RUWDODUÕQGD EDúODPÕú YH ¶OHULQ EDúÕQGDNL %RUo .UL]L LOH VRQD HUPLúWLU øON GDOJD HVQDVÕQGD GOÜ’lerde büyük

14

TCMB, “gGHPHOHU'HQJHVL0HWRGRORMLVLYH7UNL\H8\JXODPDVÕ´

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Toplum, 2005/4, s.48-49

16

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17

UNCTAD, a.g.e. , 2008, s.53 18

Bela Balassa, “Financial Liberalization in Developing Countries”, World Bank Working

Papers, WPS 55, Septemper 1989, s.1-2

19_{UNCTAD, a.g.e. , 2008, s.53}

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Grafik 3: GOÜ’lere Yönelik 8OXVODUDUDVÕg]HO<DEDQFÕ6HUPD\H<DWÕUÕPODUÕ, Net, Milyar dolar, 1980-2009

Kaynak: World Economic Outlook Database. April 2010

Grafik 3 1980-2009 döneminde GOÜ’OHUH\|QHOLNQHW|]HO\DEDQFÕVHUPD\H \DWÕUÕPODUÕQÕ J|VWHUPHNWHGLU 8OXVODUDUDVÕ |]HO \DEDQFÕ VHUPD\H \DWÕUÕPODUÕ WRSODP RODUDN \XNDUÕGD EDKVHGLOHQ LNLQFL GDOJD\D NDUúÕOÕN JHOHQ VRQUDVÕQGD DUWPD\D EDúODPÕúWÕU - G|QHPLQGH WRSODP |]HO \DEDQFÕ VHUPD\H \DWÕUÕPÕ YH \ÕOODUÕQGD oÕNÕú ROPDNOD ELUOLNWH RUWDODPD RODUDN PLO\DU GRODU G]H\LQGH JHUoHNOHúPLúWLU - \ÕOODUÕ DUDVÕQGD KÕ]OD DUWDQ WRSODP |]HO \DEDQFÕ VHUPD\H \DWÕUÕPODUÕ ¶GDQ LWLEDUHQ \ÕOÕQD NDGDU D]DOPD VUHcine JLUPLúWLU

GOÜ’OHUGHDUGÕDUGÕQD\DúDQDQNUL]OHUHSDUDOHORODUDN|]HO\DEDQFÕVHUPD\H DNÕPODUÕ|QHPOL|OoGHGDUDOPÕúWÕU$V\DNUL]LLOHEDúOD\DQG|QHPGH¶GH 5XV\DNUL]LYH¶GH$UMDQWLQYH7UNL\HNUL]OHULND\QDNWUDQVIHULQLGDUDOWÕFÕELU HWNL J|VWHUPLúWLU 2002- G|QHPLQGH LVH |]HO \DEDQFÕ VHUPD\H KDUHNHWOHULQLQ ]LUYH \DSWÕ÷Õ ELU G|QHP \DúDQPÕúWÕU $QFDN ¶GH $%' ILQDQVDO SL\DVDODUÕQGD EDúOD\DQYHNÕVDVUHGHWPGQ\DHNRQRPLOHULQH\D\ÕODQNUHVHONUL]|]HOVHUPD\H hareketlerini de olumsuz yönde etkilHPLúWLU 1LWHNLP |]HO \DEDQFÕ VHUPD\H \DWÕUÕPODUÕ \ÕOÕQGD PLO\DU GRODU G]H\LQGHQ ¶GD PLO\DU GRODU G]H\LQHLQPLúWLU (Grafik 3)

GOÜ’lere yönelik uOXVODUDUDVÕ |]HO \DEDQFÕ VHUPD\H \DWÕUÕPODUÕQÕQ J|VWHUGL÷L EX JHQHO H÷LOLPH NDUúÕOÕN |]HO \DEDQFÕ VHUPD\H WUOHULQH EDNÕOGÕ÷ÕQGD IDUNOÕ H÷LOLPOHU RUWD\D oÕNPÕúWÕU 1LWHNLP GR÷UXGDQ \DEDQFÕ sermaye \DWÕUÕPODUÕ ¶OÕ \ÕOODUGD KÕ]OÕ úHNLOGH \NVHOPLú YH \ÕOÕQGD HQ \NVHN GH÷HULQH XODúPÕúWÕU 'R÷UXGDQ \DEDQFÕ VHUPD\H \DWÕUÕPODUÕ $V\D )Lnansal krizi döneminde YHJHOLúHQSL\DVDHNRQRPLOHULQGHGDKDVRQUDNLG|QHPGHPH\GDQDJHOHQ PDOL NUL]OHUGH |]HO VHUPD\H DNÕPODUÕQÕQ HQ E\N E|OPQ ROXúWXUPXúWXU 'R÷UXGDQ \DEDQFÕ VHUPD\H \DWÕUÕPODUÕQGD J|UOHQ EX DUWÕúWD ¶OÕ \ÕOODUGDQ

-200.000 -100.000 0 100.000 200.000 300.000 400.000 500.000 600.000 700.000 19 80 19 81 19 82 19 83 19 84 19 85 19 86 19 87 19 88 19 89 19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 g]HO<DEDQFÕ6HUPD\H<DWÕUÕPODUÕWRSODP 'R÷UXGDQ<DEDQFÕ<DWÕUÕPODU 3RUWI|\<DWÕUÕPODUÕ 'L÷HU<DWÕUÕPODU

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itibaren GOÜ’leULQoR÷XQGDPH\GDQDJHOHQOLEHUDOOHúPHYHG]HQOH\LFLGH÷LúLNOLNOHU |QHPOLUROR\QDPÕúWÕU.20

Nitekim 1998’den itibaren Asya’daki ekonomik kriz geçiren ülkelerden büyük oranda portföy \DWÕUÕPÕ oÕNÕúÕ ROPXúWXU %HQ]HU úHNLOGH YH ¶GH Arjantin, Brezilya ve Türkiye gibi finansal kriz geçiren ülkelerde net portföy \DWÕUÕPODUÕQGD |QHPOLRUDQGDD]DOPDROPXúWXU%XGXUXPXQWHUVLRODUDNILQDQVDONUL] geçirmeyen ülkelerde portföy \DWÕUÕPODUÕ DUWPÕúWÕU

8OXVODUDUDVÕ |]HO \DEDQFÕ Vermaye \DWÕUÕPODUÕQÕQ kompozisyonundaki en E\N GH÷LúLNOLN ¶OÕ \ÕOODUGD SRUWI|\ \DWÕUÕPODUÕQÕQ DUWPDVÕ\OD J|UOPHNWHGLU. Grafik 2’dHQ GH J|UOHFH÷L JLEL QHW SRUWI|\ \DWÕUÕPODUÕ ¶OÕ \ÕOODUÕQ EDúODUÕQGD DUWPD\D EDúODPÕú YH GR÷UXGDQ \DWÕUÕPODUÕ DúPÕúWÕU %X DUWÕú $V\D NUL]LQGHQ VRQUD EDúOD\DQ NUL]OHUOH ELUOLNWH |QHPOL RUDQGD D]DOPÕúWÕU 3RUWI|\ \DWÕUÕPODUÕQGDNL DUWÕú |]HOOHúWLUPHVUHFLLOHLOJLOLLNHQGDKDVRQUD\DEDQFÕ\DWÕUÕPFÕODU|]HOOHúWLULOHQ úLUNHWOHULQ NRQWUROQ HOH JHoLUPHN LoLQ GR÷UXGDQ \DWÕUÕPODUD EDúYXUPDODUÕ SRUWI|\ \DWÕUÕPODUÕQÕD]DOWPÕúWÕU3RUWI|\\DWÕUÕPODUÕQGD$V\DNUL]LQGHQVRQUD|QHPOLRUDQGD D]DOÕú ROPDNOD ELUOLNWH NUL] JHoLUHQ YH JHoLUPH\HQ ONHOHU DUDVÕQGD |QHPOL RUDQGD GH÷LúPHNWHGLU

21

'L÷HU WDUDIWDQ 'Q\D %DQNDVÕQÕQ .UHVHO (NRQRPLN %HNOentiler 2010 (Global Economic Prospects) raporuna göre GOÜ’lere yönelik serma\HJLULúOHULQGH NHVNLQELUGúúROPDVÕQDNDUúÕOÕN bu ONHOHULQH[DQWHILQDQVPDQLKWL\DoODUÕ|QHPOL |OoGH GH÷LúPHPLúWLU 5DSRUXQ LoLQ FDUL DoÕN WDKPLQOHULQH ED÷OÕ RODUDN GOÜ’lere yönelen portföy \DWÕUÕPODUÕ 2009 küresel finansal krizinGHQ |QFH KÕ]OD DUWPÕúWÕU Öyleki portföy \DWÕUÕPODUÕ\ÕOÕQGDVÕIÕUD \DNÕQLNHQ\ÕOÕQGD PLO\DUGRODUDoÕNPÕúWÕU GOÜ’lere yönelik pRUWI|\ \DWÕUÕPODUÕQGD\ÕOÕQGDLVH \DNODúÕN PLO\DUGRODU oÕNÕú\DúDQPÕúWÕU(Grafik 3)

GOÜ’lere yönelik poUWI|\ \DWÕUÕPODUÕ LOH ELUOLNWH HQ LVWLNUDUVÕ] VHUPD\H DNÕPÕ GL÷HU “\DWÕUÕPODU” NDOHPLGLU *HQHOOLNOH oÕNÕúODUÕQ \DúDQGÕ÷Õ GL÷HU \DWÕUÕPODU \ÕOÕQGDHQ\NVHNG]H\LQHoÕNPÕúWÕUg\OHNL\ÕOÕQGD\DNODúÕNPLO\DU dolar GL÷HU \DWÕUÕP JLULúi gerçeklHúPLúWLU $QFDN \ÕOÕQGD oRN KÕ]OÕ ELU úHNLOGH \DNODúÕNPLO\DUGRODUGL÷HU\DWÕUÕPoÕNÕúÕ\DúDQPÕúWÕU(Grafik 3)

Özetle, GOÜ’lere yönelen |]HO \DEDQFÕ VHUPD\H \DWÕUÕPODUÕ 2009 küresel finansal krizinGHQ |QFH KÕ]OD DUWPÕúWÕU. Küresel finansal kriz gHOLúPLú ONHOHUGH EDúODPÕúROPDNODELUOLNWH.DVÕPRUWDODUÕQGDQLWLEDUHQGOÜ’leri de etkilemeye EDúODPÕúWÕUBu süreçte birçok GOÜ ERUVDODUÕQGDFLGGLGH÷HUND\ÕSODUÕROPXúONH SDUDODUÕGH÷HU\LWLUPLúONHWDKYLOOHULYHWLFDULERQRODUGDULVNSULPOHUL DUWPÕúWÕU%X nedenle yNVHN JHOLU JUXEXQGDNL EDQNDODU YH \DWÕUÕP IRQODUÕ GOÜ’OHUGHQ IRQODUÕQÕ oHNPLúOHUdir. Bu nedenlerle bu ülkelere yönelik |]HO \DEDQFÕ VHUPD\H \DWÕUÕPODUÕ |QHPOLRUDQGDGúPúWU

20

United Nations, World Economic and Social Survey, Financing for Development, New York, 2005, s.X

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GOÜ’OHULQ \ÕOÕQGD WRSODP ILQDQVPDQ LKWL\DFÕ WULO\RQ GRODULNHQ \ÕOÕ için 1,1 WULO\RQGRODUROPDVÕEHNOHQPHNWHGLU22

Kaynak: World Economic Outlook Database, April 2010

øON G|QHPGH HQ \NVHN |]HO \DEDQFÕ VHUPD\H JLULúL $V\D ONHOHULQGH JHUoHNOHúPLúWLU%XG|QHPGH$V\DONHOHULQHWRSODPPLO\DUGRODU|]HO\DEDQFÕ VHUPH\HJLULúLJHUoHNOHúPLúWLU 2UWDYH'R÷X$YUXSDYH/DWLQ$PHULNDONHOHULQGH daha küçük miktarda özHO\DEDQFÕVHUPD\HJLULúL\DúDQPÕúWÕU%XQODUDNDUúÕOÕN2UWD 'R÷X YH .X]H\ $IULND ONHOHULQGH WRSODP 75 PLO\DU GRODU VHUPD\H oÕNÕúÕ J|UOPúWU*UDILN)

*2h¶OHUHJUXSRODUDNEDNÕOGÕ÷ÕQGD|]HOOLNOH VRQUDVÕQGD|]HO\DEDQFÕ VHUPD\H JLULúLQGH|QHPOL PLNWDUGDDUWÕúJ|UOPúWU $QFDN ONH JUXSODUÕDUDVÕQGD |]HO \DEDQFÕ VHUPD\H JLULúOHUL DoÕVÕQGDQ önemli oranda IDUNOÕODúPD YDUGÕU. Bu IDUNOÕODúPDDúD÷ÕGDGrafik 4’de gösterilmektedir.

Grafik 4’de J|UOG÷üzeUHXOXVODUDUDVÕ|]HO\DEDQFÕVHUPD\H\DWÕUÕPODUÕ, ONHJUXSODUÕDUDVÕQGD|QHPOLPLNWDUGDD\UÕúPDNWDGÕU*UDIL÷HJ|UHXOXVODUDUDVÕ|]HO \DEDQFÕ VHUPD\H \DWÕUÕPODUÕQÕQ JHOLúLPLni dört döneme ayÕUDrak analiz etmek daha \DUDUOÕRODFDNWÕUøONG|QHPRODUDNuOXVODUDUDVÕ|]HO\DEDQFÕVHUPD\H\DWÕUÕPODUÕQÕQ ROGXNoD GúN YH LVWLNUDUOÕ ROGX÷X - \ÕOODUÕ DUDVÕ LNLQFL G|QHP RODUDN ¶GHQ LWLEDUHQ DUWPD\D EDúOD\ÕS VRQUDVÕQGD D]DOPD\D EDúODGÕ÷Õ -2001 dönemi, üçüncü dönem olarak önemli miktarda DUWÕúÕQ\DúDQGÕ÷Õ-2007 dönemi ve son olaraN|QHPOLGúúOHULQJ|UOG÷ YH\ÕOODUÕDOÕQDELOLU

Grafik 4: *2h*UXSODUÕQGD8OXVODUDUDVÕg]HO<DEDQFÕ6HUPD\H<DWÕUÕPODUÕ, Net, Milyar dolar, 1980-2009

øNLQFL G|QHPGH HQ \NVHN |]HO \DEDQFÕ VHUPD\H \DWÕUÕPÕ Latin Amerika ülkelerinde J|UOPúWU /DWLQ $merika ülkelerinde bu dönemde 528 milyar dolar |]HO\DEDQFÕVHUPD\HJLULúLJHUoHNOHúPLúWLU/DWLQ$PHULND¶GDQVRQUDHQ\NVHN|]HO \DEDQFÕ VHUPD\H JLULúL $V\D hONHOHULQGH 415 PLO\DU GRODU 2UWD 'R÷X YH .X]H\ Afrika ülkelerinde 156 milyar dolar ve Orta ve DR÷X $YUXSD¶GD 144 milyar dolar

22_{World Bank, a.g.e. , 2010, s.21}

-110.000 -60.000 -10.000 40.000 90.000 140.000 190.000 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2UWDYH'R÷X$YUXSD %D÷ÕPVÕ]'HYOHWOHU7RSOXOX÷X Asya 2UWD'R÷XYH.X]H\$IULND Latin Amerika

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RODUDNJHUoHNOHúPLúWLU%XQODUDNDUúÕOÕN %D÷ÕPVÕ]'HYOHWOHU7RSOXOX÷XQGD\DNODúÕN 97 PLO\DUGRODU|]HO\DEDQFÕVHUPD\HoÕNÕúÕJHUoHNOHúPLúWLU (Grafik 4)

hoQF G|QHPGH 2UWD 'R÷X YH .X]H\ $IULND ONHOHUL GÕúÕQGD \NVHN miktDUGDDUWÕúROPXúWXU%XG|QHPGH|]HO\DEDQFÕVHUPD\HJLULúOHULQGHNLHQ\NVHN DUWÕú $V\D ONHOHULQGH J|UOPúWU g\OHNL EX G|QHPGH WRSODP |]HO \DEDQFÕ VHUPD\H JLULúL $V\D ONHOHULQGH PLO\DU GRODU 'R÷X $YUXSD ONHOHULQGH PLO\DU GRODU %D÷ÕPVÕ] 'HYOHWOHU 7RSOX÷X ONHOHULQGH PLO\DU GRODU /DWLQ $PHULND ONHOHULQGH PLO\DU GRODU YH VRQ RODUDN 2UWD GR÷X YH .X]H\ $IULND ülkelerinde 14 milyar dolar oODUDNJHUoHNOHúPLúWLU*UDILN)

6RQ G|QHPGH %D÷ÕPVÕ] 'HYOHWOHU 7RSOXOX÷X ONHOHULQGH |]HO \DEDQFÕ VHUPD\H JLULúOHULQGH yüksek miktarda Gúú J|UOPúWU g\OHNL \ÕOÕQGD \DNODúÕNPLO\DUGRODUVHUPH\HJLULúLQHNDUúÕOÕN\ÕOÕQGD\DNODúÕNPLO\DU GRODUVHUPD\HoÕNÕúÕ\DúDQPÕúWÕU2UWDYH'R÷X$YUXSD¶GD\ÕOÕQGD|]HO\DEDQFÕ sermaye girLúLQGHNL D]DOPD GDKD NoN LNHQ \ÕOÕQGDNL D]DOPD GDKD KÕ]OÕ ROPXúWXU 'L÷HU WDUDIWDQ $V\D¶GD \ÕOÕQGD VHUPD\H JLULúLQGH KÕ]OÕ ELU D]DOPD J|UOUNHQ\ÕOÕQGDLVH VHUPD\H JLULúLDUWPÕúWÕU%HQ]HUúHNLOGH 2UWD'R÷X YH Kuzey Afrika ülkelerinde 20 \ÕOÕQGD VHUPD\H JLULúLQGHNL D]DOPD GDKD GúN PLNWDUGD JHUoHNOHúLUNHQ \ÕOÕQGD VHUPD\H JLULúLQGH GúN PLNWDUGD DUWPÕúWÕU (Grafik 4)

g]HWOHXOXVODUDUDVÕ|]HOVHUPD\H \DWÕUÕPODUÕ¶OÕ\ÕOODUGD$V\DONHOHUL ¶OL\ÕOODUGD$V\DYH2UWDYH'R÷X $YUXSDONHOHULQH\|QHOPLúWLU'L÷HUWDUDIWDQ 'Q\D %DQNDVÕ ¶D J|UH NUHVHO finansal krizi nedeniyle XOXVODUDUDVÕ SL\DVDODUGDNUHGLNRúXOODUÕQGD\DúDQDQVÕNÕODúWÕUPDGDQ\NVHNFDULDoÕ÷DVDKLSYHEX QHGHQOH \DEDQFÕ VHUPD\H\H GDKD ED÷ÕPOÕ RODQ lkeler GDKD ID]OD HWNLOHQPLúOHUGLU CDUL DoÕNODUÕ *6<ø+¶LQ ¶XQGDQ ID]OD ROGX÷X GOÜ’OHULQ oWH ELULQGH \DEDQFÕ VHUPD\H JLULúOHUL GXUPXúWXU23_{7&0% ¶D J|UH GH PHYFXW GXUXPGD JHOLúPLú}

ONHOHUH NÕ\DVOD GDKD JoO E\PH SHUIRUPDQVÕQD YH GDKD \NVHN IDL]OHUH VDKLS GOÜ’OHUVHUPD\HDNÕPODUÕDoÕVÕQGDQJ|UHOLRODUDNGDKDFD]LSJ|UOPHNWHGLU$QFDN VUHJHOHQ NUHVHO NÕUÕOJDQOÕNODU YH EXQD ED÷OÕ RODUDN ULVN LúWDKÕQGD J|]OHQHQ dalgalanmalarÕQ V|] NRQXVX JLULúOHULQ VUHNOLOL÷LQL HQJHOOH\HELOHFH÷L beklenmektedir.24

'ÕúERUoELU ONHGH\HUOHúLNROPD\DQNLúLOHUGHQELUV|]OHúPH\HGD\DQDUDN VD÷ODQPÕúRODQ NÕVDRUWD YH X]XQ YDGHOL \NPOONOHULQ WRSODPÕGÕU

4.2. 'Õú%RUoODQPD

25_{Bir ülkenin}

ELUG|QHPGHNLFDULLúOHPOHUGHQJHVL iseRONHQLQQHWGÕúYDUOÕNODUÕQGDNLGH÷LúPHOHUL WHPVLO HGHU (÷HU ONH FDUL LúOHPOHU ID]ODVÕ YHUL\RUVD ERUo YHUHQ NRQXPXQGD FDUL LúOHPOHU DoÕ÷Õ YHUL\RUVD ERUoODQDQ NRQXPXQGDGÕU26

23

World Bank, Global Economic Prospects, Commodities at the Crossroads, 2009, s.19-21 24

TCMB, Enflasyon Raporu, 2010-III, s.22

25_{Klein, M, Thomas, “External Debt Management: An Introduction”, World Bank}

Technical Paper, No: 245, Washington DC, 1994, s.56,

26

Maurice Obstfeld and Keneth S. Rogoff, Foundations of International Macroeconomics, MIT Pres, 1996, s.5

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LúOHP GHQJHVL ELU ONHQLQ GÕúDUÕ\D RODQ ED÷ÕPOÕOÕ÷ÕQÕ J|VWHUPHNWHGLU &DUL LúOHPOHU GHQJHVLQGHNL DoÕN XOXVODUDUDVÕ UH]HUYOHULQ GH÷LúPHGL÷L YDUVD\ÕPÕ DOWÕQGD GÕú ERUo PLNWDUÕQGDDUWÕúODUDQHGHQROPDNWDGÕU.27

Chenery ve Strout (1966)’ya göre GOÜ’OHU GÕú ERUoODQPD\a yurtiçi tasarruf-\DWÕUÕP YH LKUDFDW-LWKDODW DoÕ÷ÕQÕ NDSDWPDN LoLQ EDúYXUXUODU %X WU ELU ERUoODQPDHNRQRPL\HEHOOLELUG|QHPGHGDKD ID]OD KDUFDPD \DSPDLPNkQÕ VD÷ODU GOÜ’ler WHPHO QHGHQ RODUDN \XUWLoL WDVDUUXIODUÕQ YH G|YL] JHOLUOHULQLQ \HWHUVL] ROPDVÕ QHGHQL\OHGÕúERUoODQPD\DLKWL\DoGX\PDNWDGÕUODU 'ÕúERUoODQPDELU\DQGDQ yurtiçi ND\QDNODUÕQNXOODQÕOPDVÕQÕNROD\ODúWÕUÕFÕYHyurtiçi WDVDUUXIODUÕWHúYLNHGLFLELU URO R\QDUNHQ GL÷HU \DQGDQ HNRQRPLGH UHWLOPH\HQ PDNLQH YH WHoKL]DW LWKDOLQL NROD\ODúWÕUGÕ÷Õ |OoGH HNRQRPLQLQ WHNQRORML G]H\LQL \NVHOWLFL HWNLGH bulunabilmektedir.

'L÷HUWDUDIWDQFDULLúlem dengesindeki fazla XOXVODUDUDVÕ UH]HUYOHULQ GH÷LúPHGL÷L YDUVD\ÕPÕ DOWÕQGD GÕú ERUo PLNWDUÕQGD D]DOÕúD QHGHQRODFDNWÕU

28

Grafik 5’de GOÜ’OHULQ GÕú ERUoODUÕ VRO HNVHQGH PLNWDU YH VD÷ eksende *6<ø+ LoHULVLQGHNL JHOLúimi olarak gösterilmektedir. GOÜ’OHUH GÕú ERUoODU PLNWDU RODUDN ¶OHUGHQ LWLEDUHQ \ÕOÕ KDULo ELU |QFHNL \ÕOD RUDQOD D]DOÕú ROPXúWXU VUHNOL \NVHOPLúWLU 'Õú ERUoODU PLNWDU RODUDN -2009 döneminde ortalamDRODUDNDUWPÕúWÕU'ÕúERUoODUGDNLHQ\NVHNDUWÕú\ÕOÕQGD\DNODúÕN %24’dür.

Grafik 5: GOÜ’OHUGH'Õú%RUoODUÕQ*HOLúLPL-2009

GOÜ’OHUGH GÕú ERUoODUÕQ *6<ø+ LoLQGHNL SD\Õ -1989 ve 1994-1996 \ÕOODUÕQGD ELU |QFHNL \ÕOD J|UH azalmakla birlikte 1980’de %17,2’den 2001’de ¶\H\NVHOPLúWLUDÕúERUo*6<ø+RUDQÕ¶GHQLWLEDUHQGúPH\HEDúOD\ÕS

27

Nejla, AdaQXU$NODQ³'Õú%RUoODQPD*HOLúPHNWH2ODQhONHOHUøoLQ(WNLQ%LU)LQDQVPDQ Yöntemi midir?”, www.dtm.gov.tr/dtmadmin/upload/ead/./disborclanma.doc, Çevrimiçi, 06.08.2010

28

Hüseyin Avni Egeli, Haluk Egeli³%LU*HoLú(NRQRPLVL2ODUDN.ÕUJÕ]LVWDQ¶ÕQ'Õú %RUoODUÕQÕQ6UGUOHELOLUOL÷L´Sosyo Ekonomi, Ocak-Haziran 2008-1, s.14

0 1.000.000 2.000.000 3.000.000 4.000.000 5.000.000 6.000.000 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 35,0 40,0 45,0 % 'Õú%RUoPLO\DUGRODU 'Õú%RUo*6<ø+

(15)

¶GHROPXúWXU 'L÷HUWDUDIWDQNUHVHOILQDQVNUL]LLOHELUOLNWHGÕúERUoODUÕQ *6<ø+LoHULVLQGHNLSD\ÕQGD\NVHOPHJHUoHNOHúPLúWLUGOÜ’lerde özellikle 2000’li \ÕOODUGD GÕú ERUoODU miktar olaUDN DUWPDVÕQD UD÷PHQ *6<ø+ LoHULQGHNL SD\Õ GúPúWU %X Gúú H÷LOLPL *6<+¶Q GÕú ERUo DUWÕúÕQGDQ GDKD \NVHN RUDQGD DUWWÕ÷ÕQÕJ|VWHUPHNWHGLU%HQ]HU úHNLOGHNUHVHOILQDQVNUL]LQLQHWNLVL\OH*2h¶OHUGH *6<ø+ E\PH RUDQODUÕQÕQ D]DOPDVÕ GL÷HU WDUDIWDQ NUL]OH PFDGHOH DPDFÕ\OD X\JXODQDQJHQLúOHPHFLPDOL\HSROLWLNDODUÕVRQXFXQGDGÕúERUoODUKHPPLNWDUKHPGH GSYH’ye oran olarak DUWÕú J|VWHUPLúWLU*UDILN

*2h¶OHUGH JUXS RODUDN GÕú ERUoODUGD \XNDUÕGD J|UOHQ H÷LOLPGHQ IDUNOÕ RODUDNONHJUXSODUÕQGDIDUNOÕH÷LOLPOHU RUWD\DoÕNPÕúWÕU%XDPDoODDúD÷ÕGD*UDILN 6’da GOÜ JUXSODUÕQGD GÕú ERUoODUÕQ *6<ø+ LoHULVLQGHNL JHOLúLPL J|VWHULOPHNWHGLU *UDILNWH J|]OHQGL÷L üzere GOÜ JUXSODUÕQGD GÕú ERUoODUÕQ *6<ø+ LoHULVLQGHNL JHOLúLPLQL LNL G|QHPH D\ÕUDUDN GDKD L\L DQDOL] HGHELOLUL] øON G|QHP RODUDN GÕú ERUo*6ø<+RUDQÕQGDDUWÕúÕQROGX÷X-G|QHPLLNLQFLG|QHPRODUDNLVHGÕú ERUo*6<ø+RUDQÕQGDGúúQROGX÷XVRQUDVÕG|QHPDOÕQPÕúWÕU

øON G|QHPGH, Latin Amerika’da GÕú ERUo*6<ø+ RUDQÕ RODUDN JHUoHNOHúPLúWLU 'L÷HU ONH JUXSODUÕQGD GÕú ERUo*6<ø+ RUDQÕ VÕUDVÕ\OD 2UWD YH 'R÷X$YUXSD¶GD2UWD'R÷XYH.X]H\$IULND¶GD$V\D¶GDYH %D÷ÕPVÕ] 'HYOHWOHU 7RSOXOX÷X’nda (YHULOHUL ¶GH EDúODPDNOD ELUOLNWH) %25’dir. *|UOG÷ JLEL EX G|QHPGH GÕú ERUoODUGDNL DUWÕú E\N RUDQGD /DWLQ $PHULND YH 2UWDYH'R÷X$YUXSD¶GDQND\QDNODQPDNWDGÕU*UDILN)

Grafik 6: GOÜ *UXSODUÕQGD'Õú%RUoODUÕQ*6<ø+øoHULVLQGHNL*HOLúLPL-2009

øNLQFLG|QHPGH sadece 2UWDYH'R÷X$YUXSD¶GDGÕúERUo*6<ø+RUDQÕQGD |QHPOL RUDQGD DUWÕú J|UOPúWU 2UWD YH 'R÷X $YUXSD¶GD GÕú ERUo*6<ø+ RUDQÕ ¶GH ¶GHQ ¶GD ¶\D \NVHOPLúWLU DL÷HU ONH JUXSODUÕQGD GÕú ERUo*6<ø+ RUDQÕnda \ÕOÕ KDULo |QHPOL GúúOer görülmektedir. DÕú ERUo*6<ø+ RUDQÕ ortalama olarak 2UWD YH 'R÷X $YUXSD¶GD %D÷ÕPVÕ]

10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0 80,0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2UWDYH'R÷X$YUXSD %D÷ÕPVÕ]'HYOHWOHU7RSOXOX÷X Asya 2UWD'R÷XYH.X]H\$IULND Latin Amerika

(16)

'HYOHWOHU 7RSOXOX÷X¶QGD 2UWD 'R÷X YH .X]H\ $IULND¶GD /DWLQ $PHULND¶GDYH$V\D¶GD¶GLU'L÷HUELULIDGH\OHVRQUDVÕG|QHPGH GOÜ’OHUGH GÕú ERUoODUÕQ *6<ø+ LoHULVLQGHNL SD\ÕQÕQ GúPHVLQH HQ E\N NDWNÕ\Õ $V\DYH/DWLQ$PHULNDONHOHUL\DSDUNHQ2UWDYH'R÷X$YUXSDONHOHULEXGúúQ KÕ]ÕQÕ\DYDúODWPÕúWÕU. (Grafik 6)

\ÕOÕQGD GÕú ERUo *6<ø+ RUDQÕ $V\D ONHOHULQGH D\QÕ NDOÕUNHQ GL÷HU ülke gruSODUÕQGD |QHPOL DUWÕúODU J|VWHUPLúWLU. Nitekim küresel ekonomik kriz VUHFLQGH JHOLúPLú ONHOHULQ X\JXODPD\D NR\GX÷X JHQLú NDSVDPOÕ PDOL WHúYLN SDNHWOHULYHILQDQVDONXUWDUPDSURJUDPODUÕEXONHOHULQNDPXPDOL\HVLGHQJHOHULQLQ KÕ]OÕ ELU úHNLOGH N|WOHúPHVLQH QHGHQ ROPXúWXU 'L÷HU WDUDIWDQ, küresel iktisadi IDDOL\HWWH\DúDQDQGDUDOPDVRQXFXQGDJHOLúPLúONHOHUGHGDKDEHOLUJLQROPDN]HUH NDPX JHOLUOHULQGH RUWD\D oÕNDQ GúúOHU NDPX PDOL DoÕ÷ÕQÕQ YH ERUo VWRNXQXQ NUHVHO|OoHNWHDUWPDVÕQGDEHOLUOH\LFLELUUROR\QDPÕúWÕU29

5H]HUY YDUOÕNODU

5H]HUY9DUOÕNODU

30_{ONHQLQ SDUDVDO \HWNLOLVL WDUDIÕQGDQ ONH |GHPHOHULQLQ}

NRQWUROYH|GHPHOHUGHRUWD\DoÕNDQGHQJHVL]OLNOHULQGROD\OÕRODUDNG|YL]NXUODUÕQD müdahale yolu ile düzenlenmesine yönelik olarak NXOODQÕPD KD]ÕU RODQ GÕú YDUOÕNODUGÕU31_{&DUL LúOHPOHU YH VHUPD\H KHVDSODUÕ LOH QHW KDWD QRNVDQ NDOHPOHULQLQ}

WRSODPÕSR]LWLILVHG|YL]JLULúOHULoÕNÕúWDQID]ODLVHEXID]ODUH]HUYOHUHDNWDUÕOÕU6|] konusu fazla ödemeler dengesi istatistiklerine eksi olarDNJLUHUYHUH]HUYDUWÕúODUÕQD ND\GHGLOLU'ROD\ÕVÕ\OD|GHPHOHUGHQJHVLLVWDWLVWLNOHULQGHUH]HUYKDUHNHWOHULQGHeksi LIDGHVL UH]HUYOHULQ DUWPDNWD ROGX÷XQX |GHPHOHU GHQJHVLQGHNL KHVDEÕQ HNVLOGL÷LQL ifade eder.32

GOÜ’OHUGH \ÕOÕQGDQ LWLEDUHQ EDúODWÕODQ döviz rezervi biriktirme SROLWLNDVÕ,0)J|]HWLPLQGHEDúDUÕ\ODX\JXODQPÕúWÕU

33_{GOÜ’OHUNÕVPHQNHQGLG|YL]}

NXUODUÕQÕQ LVWLNUDUÕQÕ VDYXQPD\D oDOÕúPDN YH VHUPD\H DNÕúODUÕQGD DQVÕ]ÕQ JHUoHNOHúHELOHFHN WHUVLQH DNÕúODUD NDUúÕ NHQGLOHULQL NRUXPDN DPDFÕ\OD G|YL] UH]HUYOHULQL DUWÕUPDNWDGÕUODU34_{5H]HUY YDUOÕNODU \XUWGÕúÕQGDQ ERUoODQPDGD WHPLQDW}

JYHQ VD÷OD\ÕFÕ XQVXU \XUWLoLQGH LVH ED]Õ JHUHNVLQPHOerde yeterlilik ölçüsü olarak kabul edilmektedir.35

29_{TCMB, a.g.e., 2010, s.79}

30_{5H]HUYYDUOÕNODU3DUDVDO$OWÕQ5H]HUYOHULg]HOdHNPH+DNNÕ6'5¶V)RQ1H]GLQGHNL} Rezerv Pozisyonu, '|YL]5H]HUYOHULYH'L÷HU$ODFDN+DNODUÕ¶QGDQROXúPDNWDGÕUTCMB, Ödemeler Dengesi…a.g.e. )

31_{TCMB, Ödemeler Dengesi…a.g.e.}

32_{Yeldan, a.g.m., s.48-49}

33_{<DPDQ7|UQHU$oÕN%irikiminden Rezerv Birikimine, Milliyet, 20 Nisan 2009} 34_{United Nations, a.g.e. , s.75}

35_{TCMB, Ödemeler Dengesi… a.g.e.}

%D]Õ ONHOHUGH VD÷ODP PDNURHNRQRPLN \|QHWLP VRUXQODUÕ UH]HUYDUWÕúÕQGD|QHPOLELUUROR\QDPÕúWÕU<DEDQFÕVHUPD\HJLULúOHULQGHNLKÕ]OÕDUWÕú YH oRN JoO HPWLD JHOLUOHUL ONH HNRQRPLOHULQLQ YHULPOL \DWÕUÕP NDSDVLWHOHULQL

(17)

DúPÕúWÕU %X GXUXPGD DúÕUÕ VHUPD\H JLULúLQLQ VWHULOL]H HGLOPHVL UH]HUY ELULNLPLQLQ WHPHOQHGHQLROPXúWXr.36

*2h¶OHUGH FDUL LúOHPOHU GHQJHVL YH UH]HUY ELULNLPLQGHNL GH÷LúLP *UDILN ¶GH J|VWHULOPHNWHGLU *|UOG÷ ]HUH *2h¶OHUGH FDUL LúOHPOHU ID]ODVÕ YH QHW \DEDQFÕ VHUPD\H JLULúL LOH UH]HUY ELULNLPL DUDVÕQGD \DNÕQ ELU LOLúNLQLQ ROGX÷X J|UOPHNWHGLU *2h¶OHUGH VRQUDVÕQGD \NVHN PLNWDUGDNL FDUL LúOHPOHU ID]ODVÕQD|QHPOLPLNWDUGD\DEDQFÕVHUPD\HJLULúLHúOLNHWPHNWHGLU%XVUHoWHUH]HUY biriNLPL\ÕOÕQGDQ\ÕOÕQDNDGDUKÕ]OÕúHNLOGHDUWPÕúWÕU'L÷HUWDUDIWDQ YH \ÕOODUÕQGD *2h¶OHUGH E\N |OoGH NUHVHO ILQDQV NUL]LQLQ HWNLVL\OH |]HO \DEDQFÕ VHUPD\H JLULúLQGH FDUL LúOHP ID]ODODUÕQGD YH UH]HUY YDUOÕNODUGD |QHPOL GúúOHUJ|Ulmektedir.

Grafik 7: GOÜ’lerde Rezerv Birikimi, 1990-2009, Milyar dolar

'Q\D %DQNDVÕ ¶D J|UH 2000- \ÕOODUÕ DUDVÕQGD GOÜ’lerden \NVHN JHOLUOL ONHOHUH GR÷UX QHW NUHGL DNÕPÕ YDUGÕU GOÜ’OHU JHOLúPLú ONHOHULQ NHQGLOHULQH \DWÕUGÕNODUÕWDVDUUXIODUGDQGDKDID]ODVÕQÕ \NVHN JHOLUOL ONHOHUH \|QHOLN \DWÕUÕPODUGD NXOODQPÕúODUGÕU37_{Nitekim GOÜ’OHU WDUDIÕQGDQ \DSÕODQ \R÷XQ UH]HUY}

ELULNLPL \ÕOÕQGDQ LWLEDUHQ EX ONHOHUGHQ QHJDWLI QHW VHUPD\H DNÕúÕQD QHGHQ ROPXúWXU Çünkü GOÜ’lerdeki rezervler, JHQHOOLNOH JHOLúPLú ONHOHU WDUDIÕQGDQ oÕNDUÕODQ güvenli YDUOÕNODUD \DWÕUÕOPÕúWÕU %X JYHQOL |]YDUOÕNODUÕQ EDúOÕFD GD\DQDN QRNWDVÕLVHGRODUDHQJYHQOLHULúLPLVD÷OD\DQ$PHULNDQKD]LQHERQRODUÕGÕU38

%X GH÷LúLPLQ VRQXFXQGD GOÜ’ler grup olarak net sermaye LKUDFDWoÕVÕ ROPXúODU YH JHOLúPLú ONHOHUGH VRQUDVÕ G|QHPGH |QHPOL ELU \DWÕUÕPFÕ VÕQÕI

36_{World Bank, a.g.e. , 2010, s.89} 37_{World Bank, a.g.e. , 2010, s.8}

38_{3DLQFKHLUD-XDQ3DEOR)LQDQVDOODúPDdD÷ÕQGD*HOLúPHNWH2ODQhONHOHU$oÕN} Birikiminden Rezerv Birikimine, çev, Sabriye Biçen, Finanskulüp, Maliye ve Finans

<D]ÕODUÕ6D\ÕV -1.300.000 -800.000 -300.000 200.000 700.000 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 *2h1HW<DEDQFÕ6HUPD\H *2h5H]HUYOHUGHNL'H÷LúLP *h&DULøúOHPOHU'HQJHVL *2h&DULøúOHPOHU'HQJHVL

(18)

KDOLQH JHOPLúOHUGLU39

Grafik 8’de J|UOHFH÷L]HUHUH]HUYELULNLPL|]HOOLNOH$V\DONHOHULQGHoRN \NVHN PLNWDUGDGÕU $V\D ONHOHULQGH |]HOOLNOH VRQUDVÕQGD WRSODP WULO\RQ GRODU UH]HUY ELULNLPL JHUoHNOHúPLúWLU g\OHNL GL÷HU ONH JUXSODUÕQÕQ KHSVLQGH VRQUDVÕQGD JHUoHNOHúHQ WRSlam rezerv birikim sadece 1,9 trilyon Dolar’GÕU $V\D ONHOHULQGHQ VRQUD HQ \NVHN UH]HUY ELULNLPL 2UWD GR÷X YH .X]H\ $IULND¶GD JHUoHNOHúPLúWLU (Q az rezerv birikimi ise Orta ve DR÷X $YUXSD ONHOHULQGH görülmektedir.

Öyleki rezerv birikimi 2001- YH ¶GH QHW \DEDQFÕ VHUPD\H JLULúL YH FDUL LúOHPOHU ID]ODODUÕQGDQ GDKD \NVHNWLU GOÜ’lerde rezerv DUWÕúÕQÕQ \NVHN PLNWDUGD ROPDVÕ ONH GÕúÕQD VHUPD\H oÕNÕúÕQD QHGHQ ROPDVÕ sebebiyle GOÜ’OHUGHGÕúILQDQVPDQRODQDNODUÕQGDQJHUH÷LQFHID\GDODQDPDPDODUÕQD QHGHQROPDNWDGÕU

'L÷HU WDUDIWDQ UH]HUY ELULNLP VUHFL ONH JUXSODUÕQGD |QHPOL PLNWDUGD farklÕODúPDNWDGÕU $úD÷ÕGD *UDILN bu IDUNOÕODúPD\Õ daha iyi analiz etmemize \DUGÕPFÕRODFDNWÕU

Grafik 8: GOÜ hONH*UXSODUÕQGD5H]HUY%LULNLPL0LO\DUGRODU-2009

<XNDUÕGD EDKVHGLOGL÷L JLEL *2h¶ler tarDIÕQGDQ \DSÕODQ \R÷XQ UH]HUY ELULNLPL \ÕOÕQGDQ LWLEDUHQ EX ONHOHUGHQ QHJDWLI QHW VHUPD\H DNÕúÕQD QHGHQ ROPXúWXU 'L÷HU WDUDIWDQ Vermayenin GOÜ’OHUGHQ JHOLúPLú ülkelere transferi Asya 0HUNH] %DQNDODUÕQÕQ UH]HUY ELULNLPL YH oR÷XQOXNOD SHWURO LKUDo HGHn ülkelerdeki \DWÕUÕP IRQODUÕQGDQ ND\QDNODQPDNWDGÕU40_{'Q\D %DQNDVÕ ¶D J|UH dLQ YH}

SHWURO LKUDo HGHQ ONHOHU GÕúDUÕGD WXWXOGX÷XQGD GOÜ’OHU KDOD VHUPD\H LWKDODWoÕVÕ GXUXPXPGDGÕU 6HUPD\H \RNOX÷X oHNHQ ELUoRN ONH LoLQ GÕú ILQDQVPDQ \DWÕUÕPODUÕ finansmDQLoLQKD\DWLELUND\QDNWÕU41

39

3D]DUEDúÕR÷OX&H\OD*RVZDPL0DQJDOYH5HH)DFN³7KH&KDQJLQJ)DFHRI,QYHVWRUV´

Finance and Development, A Quarterly Magazine on the IMF, March 2007, Volume 44,

Number 1, 40

3D]DUEDúÕR÷OXa.g.e. 41

World Bank, a.g.e. , 2010, s.8 -650.000 -550.000 -450.000 -350.000 -250.000 -150.000 -50.000 50.000 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2UWDYH'R÷X$YUXSD %D÷ÕPVÕ]'HYOHWOHU7RSOXOX÷X Asya 2UWD'R÷XYH.X]H\$IULND Latin Amerika

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Sonuç

&DUL LúOHPOHU DoÕNODUÕ ONHQLQ \DEDQFÕODUD RODQ QHW \NPOONOHULQLQ ND\QD÷ÕQÕ ROXúWXUPDNWDGÕU &DUL LúOHPOHU GHQJHVL]OLNOHULQLQ XOXVDO WDVDUUXIODU LOH JLGHULOHPHGL÷L úDUWODUGD GÕú ND\QDNODUD EDúYXUXOPDNWDGÕU %X ED÷lamda EDNÕOGÕ÷ÕQGD*2h¶OHUGHFDUL LúOHPGHQJHVL \ÕOÕQGDQLWLEDUHQ|QHPOL PLNWDUGD ID]OD YHUPLúWLU hONH JUXSODUÕ ED]ÕQGD FDUL LúOHP ID]ODODUÕ 2UWD 'R÷X YH .X]H\ $IULNDYH%D÷ÕPVÕ]'HYOHWOHU7RSOXOX÷XONHOHULQGHQND\QDNODQPÕúWÕU<LQH2UWDYH 'R÷X$YUXSDONHOHULDUWDQPLNWDUGDFDULLúOHPDoÕ÷ÕYHUPLúOHUGLU

'L÷HU WDUDIWDQ FDUL LúOHP DoÕ÷ÕQÕQ ELU HNRQRPL DoÕVÕQGDQ |QHPOL KDOH JHOPHVL ILQDQVH HGLOHPH\HFH÷L EHNOHQWLVLQLQ ROXúPDVÕ\OD RUWD\D oÕNPDNWDGÕU %u QHGHQOH|QFHOLNOHFDULDoÕ÷ÕQ KDQJLND\QDNODUGDQILQDQVHHGLOGL÷L|QHPWDúÕPDNWDGÕU %XDoÕGDQEDNÕOGÕ÷ÕQGD*2h¶OHUGHFDULLúOHPDoÕNODUÕQÕQILQDQVPDQÕQGDXOXVODUDUDVÕ |]HO \DEDQFÕ VHUPD\H \DWÕUÕPODUÕ VRQUDVÕQGD YH |]HOOLNOH ¶OL \ÕOODUGD |QHPOL PLNWDUGD DUWPÕúWÕU 'R÷UXGDQ \DEDQFÕ VHUPD\H \DWÕUÕPODUÕ KHP ¶OÕ \ÕOODUGDNL HNRQRPLN NUL]OHUGHQ ID]OD HWNLOHQPHPHVL KHP GH \NVHN PLNWDUGD YH LVWLNUDUOÕ ROPDVÕ QHGHQL\OH FDUL LúOHP DoÕNODUÕQÕQ ILQDQVPDQÕQGD HQ E\N UROH VDKLSWLU 'L÷HU WDUDIWDQ SRUWI|\ YH GL÷HU \DWÕUÕPODU KHP LVWLNUDUVÕ] KHP GH NoN PLNWDUGDJHUoHNOHúPLúWLU8OXVODUDUDVÕ|]HO\DEDQFÕVHUPD\H\DWÕUÕPODUÕONHJUXSODUÕ ED]ÕQGD ¶OÕ \ÕOODUGD $V\D ¶OL \ÕOODUGD LVH VÕUD\OD $V\D, 2UWD YH 'R÷X $YUXSDONHOHULQH\NVHNPLNWDUGD\|QHOPLúWLU

&DUL LúOHP DoÕNODUÕQÕQ ILQDQVPDQÕQGD GÕú ERUoODQPD PLNWDU RODUDN VUHNOL DUWPDNODELUOLNWHGÕúERUoODUÕQ*6<ø+LoHULVLQGHNLSD\ÕVRQUDVÕQGDD]DOPÕúWÕU 'Õú ERUo*6<ø+ RUDQÕQGD HQ \NVHN D]DOÕú $V\D, 2UWD GR÷X YH .X]H\ $IULND ONHOHULQGH J|UOPúWU %XQODUD NDUúÕOÕN 2UWD YH 'R÷X $YUXSD ONHOHULQGH GÕú ERUoODUÕQ*6<ø+LoHULVLQGHNLSD\ÕDUWPÕúWÕU

'L÷HU WDUDIWDQ *2h¶OHU |]HOOLNOH ¶OL \ÕOODUGD ELU WDUDIWDQ HNRQRPLN NUL]OHUHNDUúÕNHQGLOHULQLNRUXrken GL÷HUWDUDIWDQWDVDUUXIID]ODVÕYHXOXVODUDUDVÕ|]HO \DEDQFÕ VHUPD\H \DWÕUÕPODUÕQGDNL DUWÕúOD ELUOLNWH |QHPOL PLNWDUGD UH]HUY ELULNLPL JHUoHNOHúWLUPLúOHUGLU *2h¶OHUGHNL UH]HUY ELULNLPLQLQ E\N oR÷XQOX÷X LVH $V\D ONHOHULQGHQ ND\QDNODQPDNWDGÕU $QFDN UH]HUY YDUOÕNODUÕQ JHOLúPLú ONHOHULQ |]YDUOÕNODUÕQD \DWÕUÕOPDVÕ QHGHQL\OH *2h¶OHU \ÕOÕQGDQ LWLEDUHQ QHJDWLI QHW VHUPD\H DNÕúÕQD QHGHQ ROPXúWXU. 'L÷HU WDUDIWDQ dLQ YH SHWURO LKUDo HGHQ ONHOHU KDULoWXWXOGX÷XQGD*2h¶OHUKDODVHUPD\HLWKDODWoÕVÕGXUXPXQGDGÕU

*2h¶OHUGHJHQHORODUDNVRQUDVÕG|QHPGHGDKD|QFHNL\ÕOODUÕQDNsine, |QHPOL RUDQGD XOXVODUDUDVÕ |]HO \DEDQFÕ VHUPD\H \DWÕUÕPÕ FDUL LúOHP ID]ODVÕ YH dolayÕVÕ\OD |QHPOL RUDQGD WDVDUUXI ID]ODVÕ JHUoHNOHúPLúWLU $QFDN küresel ekonomi \ÕOÕQGD GHULQ ELU HNRQRPLN NUL] \DúDPÕúWÕU 8OXVODUDUDVÕ WLFDUHWWH J|UOHQ \DYDúODPD YH HPWLD IL\DWODUÕQGD Gúú H÷LOLPL FDUL LúOHP YH WDVDUUXI ID]ODODUÕQÕ D]DOWPÕúWÕU *eOLúPLú SL\DVDODUGD finansal piyasa denetim ve düzenlemelerinin DUWPDVÕ YH ULVN LúWDKÕQGDNL D]DOPD *2h¶OHUH \|QHOLN XOXVODUDUDVÕ |]HO \DEDQFÕ VHUPD\H \DWÕUÕPODUÕQÕ \DYDúODWPÕúWÕU 'L÷HU WDUDIWDQ *2h¶OHULQ küresel ekonomik NUL] VUHFLQGH X\JXODPD\D NR\GX÷X JHQLú NDSVDPOÕ PDOL WHúYLN SDNHWOHUL finansal NXUWDUPDSURJUDPODUÕ ve küresel iktisadi faali\HWWH\DúDQDQGDUDOPDVRQXFXQGD kamu JHOLUOHULQGH RUWD\D oÕNDQ GúúOHU NDPu mali açÕ÷ÕQÕQ YH ERUo VWRNXQXQ DUWPDVÕQD QHGHQROPXúWXU

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