Ekonomik krizler ve ABD 2007 krizi sonrası ülkelerin borsa performansları üzerine bir araştırma

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(1)T.C. '2.8=(</h/h1ø9(56ø7(6ø 626<$/%ø/ø0/(5(167ø7h6h øùLETME $1$%ø/ø0'$/, FøNANSMAN PROGRAMI YÜ.6(./ø6$167(=ø. EKONOMøK KRøZLER VE ABD 2007 KRøZø SONRASI ÜLKELERøN BORSA PERFORMANSLARI ÜZERøNE BøR ARAùTIRMA. øEUDKLP.$<$'(/(1. 'DQÕúPDQ Prof. Dr. Öcal USTA. ø=0øR - 2012.

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(7) ABSTRACT 0DVWHU¶V7KHVLV Economic Crises and A Research on Stock Exchange Performances of Countries After The 2007 U.S. Economic Crisis øEUDKLP.$<$'(/(1 Dokuz Eylül University Graduate School of Social Sciences Department of Business Administration Finance Program. Even though economic crises have huge impact on the country that they are found in, they might affect other economies. This thesis is dedicated to research the impact of the 2007 mortgage crisis on stock exchange performances and observe the characteristics which differenciate the stock exchange performances of countries after the crisis. To be able to find out that indices of nine different countires have been observed within every three months performances beetween the end of September 2007 and 2011 year end. While selecting the markets for research, Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain were chosen to represent the Euro crisis; US, Germany, UK and Switzerland were chosen to see the differentiation of powerful economies and finally Turkey was included to understand how Turkey has been performing in recent global economic crisis after the 2001 economic crisis. The returns of indices were calculated by normal cumulative return method. Euro based index was calculated to eliminate the impact of currency rates. All currency rates were taken from interbank market as closing prices. As a result, ISE 100 index has the best performance with %15 return, while ASE index has %86 loss. In Euro based evaluation, Switzerland SMI index jumped into first place because of strong CHF. This research shows that the 2007 mortgage crisis has negative impact on all indices observed in this document. In addition, econonmic overviews of countries, strength of effective reaction can be created against economic crisis, psychological factors of financial decision vi.

(8) takers, currency, political and executive conditions of countries strongly influence on the differentiation of stock exchange performances. Moreover, 'time' has also impact on index performances after crisis. This study underlines the 'time' impact on markets, considering that the second best performing country were United States, where the mortgage crisis had begun first. In. high. level. interaction. economical. environment,. considering. economical relations and stock exchange performances, it has been getting more and more important to adapt multiple equilibrium systems. If financial authorities keep an eye on these balances, it might be possible to limit the losses in stock exchanges during economic crisis because of having stonger adaption of economies. Keywords: Economic crisis, Economic crises history, Mortgage, Stock exchange performance, Currency Wars. vii.

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(47) *HoPLúWHQ EX \DQD GÕú ERUo NUL]L \DúD\DQ ONHOHUL LQFHOHGL÷LPL]GH JOREDO HNRQRPLGH YH ONH HNRQRPLVLQGH GÕú ERUo NUL]LQL WHWLNOH\HQ HWNHQOHUL úX úHNLOGH VÕUDOD\DELOLUL] Ó hONH HNRQRPLOHULQLQ SHWURO EDúWD ROPDN ]HUH HQHUML LWKDO HGHQ ONHOHU NRQXPXQGDROPDVÕ Ó øWKDOJLUGLIL\DWODUÕQÕQDUWPDVÕQÕQLKUDFDWLPNDQÕQÕJLGHUHN]RUODúWÕUPDVÕ Ó )DL]RUDQODUÕQÕQ\NVHOPHVL\OHERUoODQPDPDOL\HWOHULQLQDUWPDVÕ Ó *HOLúPLú ONHOHULQ JHOLúPHNWH RODQ ONHOHUH NR\GXNODUÕ UHNDEHWH \|QHOLN kotalar Ó 9HULPVL]NDPXKDUFDPDODUÕQÕQEWoH\HROXPVX]HWNLVL Ó <NVHOHQ SHWURO IL\DWODUÕQÕQ HWNLVL\OH ILQDQV NXUXOXúODUÕQGD ELULNHQ \NVHN PLNWDUGD QDNGLQ JHOLúPLú ONHOHUH NÕVD VUHOL NROD\ NUHGL LPNDQÕ VD÷ODPDVÕ DQFDNEXNRúXOODUÕQVUHNOLROPDPDVÕYHVRQUDGDQER]XOPDVÕ Ó 6UGUOHELOLU %RUo 2UDQÕ %RUo *6<ø+ (*D\UL 6DIL <XUW øoL +DVÕOD

(48) ) NDYUDPÕ ile ülke ekonomilerinin büyüdükçe daha fazla borçlanmaya izin vermesi ùHNLO2: Türkiye'de 'Õú%RUo6WRNX± *60+2UDQÕ

(49). .D\QDN7&0%.UHVHOOHúPHQLQ7UNL\H(NRQRPLVLQH(WNLOHUL6. 1.1.2.2.2. Döviz (Para) Krizi 6DELWNXUVLVWHPLQGHGHYDODV\RQHWNLVL\OHGDOJDOÕNXUVLVWHPLQGHLVHSL\DVD aktöUOHULQLQ HOOHULQGHNL SDUD\Õ XOXVDO SDUDGDQ \DEDQFÕ SDUD\D DQLGHQ oHYLUPHVL VRQXFX NXUGD ROXúDQ EDVNÕQÕQ SVLNRORMLN HWNLOHUOH \D GD VSHNODWLI DWDNODUOD QRUPDO GDOJDODQPDQÕQ |WHVLQGH oRN VHUW GH÷LúLPOHUH VHEHS RODUDN 0HUNH] %DQNDVÕQÕQ finansal müdahaleler LOH |QOH\HPH\HFH÷L ER\XWODUGD RUWD\D oÕNDQ NUL]OHUGLU %XUDGD 8.

(50) SL\DVD DNW|UOHULQLQ SR]LV\RQODUÕ ONH SDUDVÕQD GX\XODQ JYHQ KDONÕQ \DWÕUÕP JHOHQH÷L SDQLN GXUXPX YH PHUNH] EDQNDVÕQÕQ JF G|YL] NUL]OHUL DoÕVÕQGDQ |QHP WHúNLO HWPHNWHGLU hONHGHNL NÕVD YDGHOL \DEDQFÕ \DWÕUÕPODUÕQ PLNWDUÕ GD ELU NUL] ihtimalini güçlendirecek niteliktedir. 3L\DVD DNW|UOHULQLQ \DEDQFÕ SDUD OHKLQH \DWÕUÕP EHNOHQWLOHUL ONHQLQ SDUD SL\DVDVÕQÕQ \HWHULQFH JHOLúPHPLú YH GHULQOHúPHPLú ROPDVÕ SDUD NUL]L RODVÕOÕ÷ÕQÕ DUWWÕUPDNWDGÕU 7UNL\H NUL]L EX NRQX\D J]HO ELU |UQHN WHúNLO HGHELOLU )LQDQV VHNW|UQGH \DEDQFÕ \DWÕUÕPÕQ ID]ODOÕ÷Õ GD RODVÕ NUL] ]DPDQODUÕQGD \DEDQFÕ SDUD SR]LV\RQODUÕQÕ DUWWÕUPDODUÕQGDQ GROD\Õ NUL]L N|UNOHPHNWHGLU ùHNLO GH J|UOHFH÷L üzere kamu ve özel seNW|U EDQNDODUÕQÕQ JHQHO ILQDQVDO SR]LV\RQ \DSÕODUÕ IDUNOÕ ILQDQVDO VWUDWHMLOHUL ROGX÷XQXQ ELU J|VWHUJHVL NDEXO HGLOHELOLU Özel sektörün Eylül LWLEDUL\OHHOLQGHG|YL]EXOXQGXUPDVÕNXUGD\XNDUÕ\|QOELUEHNOHQWLROGX÷XQXQ J|VWHUJHVLRODUDNDOJÕODQDEilir. '|YL] NUL]L ELU VSHNODWLI HWNL VRQXFXQGD ONH SDUDVÕQÕQ GHYDOH HGLOHUHN GH÷HU ND\EHWPHVL\OH VRQXoODQDQ \D GD VSHNODWLI VDOGÕUÕODU VRQXFXQGD SDUD RWRULWHVLQLQ XOXVODUDUDVÕ UH]HUYOHUL KDUFD\DUDN YH IDL] RUDQODUÕQÕ \NVHOWHUHN ONH SDUDVÕQÕ VDYXQPD\D ]RUODPDVÕ\OD ROXúXU (Küçükaksoy 2006: 112). Ülkenin merkez EDQNDVÕQÕQ \DEDQFÕ SDUD UH]HUY GXUXPX YH HOLQGHNL GL÷HU ILQDQVDO PGDKDOH DUDoODUÕ\OD ONH SDUDVÕ OHKLQH KDUHNHWH JHoHU YH EX GXUXPX NUL]H G|QúPHGHQ HQJHOOHPH\HoDOÕúÕU ùHNLO3: %DQND*UXSODUÕøWLEDUL\OH1HW*HQHO'|YL]3Rzisyonu (Eylül 2011). Kaynak: BDDK, Türk BanNDFÕOÕN6HNW|U.XU5LVNL'H÷HUOHQGLUPH5DSRUX(\OOV. 9.

(51) <DEDQFÕODU WDUDIÕQGDQ VDWÕQ DOÕQDQ KLVVH VHQHWOHUL YH WDKYLO \DWÕUÕPODUÕ X]XQ G|QHP SRUWI|\ \DWÕUÕPODUÕ RODUDN J|UOPHNOH ELUOLNWH \NVHN OLNLGLWH\H VDKLS ROGXNODUÕQGDQ GROD\Õ ONHGHQ oÕNÕúODUÕ ùHNLO ¶GHQ DoÕkça J|UOHFH÷L JLEL oRN KÕ]OÕ olabilmektedir. gUQH÷LQ 7UNL\H GH NUL]L\OH ELUOLNWH PLO\DU GRODUOÕN QHJDWLI seUPD\H KDUHNHWL JHUoHNOHúPLúWLU *HQHOOLNOH \HUOL SDUD LOH DOÕQDQ EX SR]LV\RQODUÕQ NDSDWÕODUDN \DEDQFÕ SDUD\D JHoPHVL GH SDUD NUL]LQL KÕ]ODQGÕUÕFÕ \|QGH HWNL etmektedir.. ùHNLO4: *HOLúPHNWH2ODQhONHOHUH6HUPD\H+DUHNHWOHUL PLO\DUGRODU

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(53) VHUWGH÷LúLPOHUHVHEHSROPDVÕQDLPNDQYHUPHNWHGLUYH PHUNH]EDQNDODUÕQÕoRN]RU GXUXPODUGD EÕUDNPDNWD VUHNOL YH \NVHN PLNWDUGD \DEDQFÕ SDUD UH]HUYL WXWPD\D itmektedir. 1.1.2.2.%DQNDFÕOÕN± Finans Krizi )RQDU]HGHQOHUYHIRQWDOHSHGHQOHUDUDVÕQGDN|SULúOHPLJ|UHQEDQNDFÕOÕN ve finans sistemi bir ülke ekonomisinde çok önemli yere sahiptir. Finans sektöründe IDDOL\HW J|VWHUHQ úLUNHWOHULQ oHúLWOL VHEHSOHUGHQ GROD\Õ VÕNÕQWÕ\D GúPHVL YH \NPOONOHULQL NDUúÕOD\DPD\DFDN GXUXPD JHOPHOHUL EDQNDFÕOÕN ± finans krizi ROXúXPXQDVHEHEL\HWYHULU Mevduat baQNDODUÕQÕQ OLNLGLWH NUL]LQH JLUPHOHUL YH KDONÕQ PHYGXDWODUÕQÕ oHNPHN LoLQ EDQNDODUD NRúPDVÕ \DWÕUÕP EDQNDODUÕQÕQ NDEXO HGLOHPH\HFHN ]DUDUODU J|UPHVL YH GL÷HU EDQNDODUÕQ GD \NVHN ]DUDUODU EHNOHPHVL ERUVDODUÕQ QHJDWLI J|UQPH JHoPHVL YH VDWÕúODUÕQ KÕ]ODQPDVÕ ILQDQV VLVWHPLQLQ JHQHOLQH \|QHOLN ROXPVX] EHNOHQWLOHU LoLQH JLULOPHVL ILQDQV NUL]L HWNLOHULQGHQGLU %DúND ELU GH\LúOH WDVDUUXIODUÕQ UHHO HNRQRPL\H ND]DQGÕUÕOPDVÕQGD DUDFÕ RODQ EDQNDFÕOÕN VLVWHPLQLQ \NPOONOHULQL \HULQH JHWLUHPHPHVL PHQNXO NÕ\PHW ERUVDODUÕQGD KLVVH VHQHGL IL\DWODUÕQÕQ oRN KÕ]OÕ GúPHVLQH 0HUNH] %DQNDODUÕ¶QÕQ PDOL SL\DVDODUÕ \|QOHQGLULFL IRQNVL\RQXQXQ HOLQGHNL SDUD SROLWLNDVÕ DUDoODUÕQÕQ \HWHUVL]OL÷L \D GD HWNLQVL]OL÷L VHEHEL\OH D]DOPDVÕQD VHEHS RODUDN ILQDQVDO ND\QDNOÕ ELU HNRQRmik kriz ortaya oÕNPDNWDGÕU (Küçükaksoy, 2006:113). 0DUN -LFNOLQJ H J|UH ILQDQV NUL]LQLQ NHVLQ ELU WDQÕPÕ ROPDPDVÕQD UD÷PHQ ILQDQVDOSL\DVDODUGDER]XOPDYHQDNLWDNÕúODUÕQGDD]DOPDúHNOLQGHNHQGLQLJ|VWHUHQ YH GDKD VRQUD HNRQRPLQLQ GL÷HU DODQODUÕQD GD \D\ÕODELOHQ ELU NUL]GLU (http://fpc.state.gov/documents/ organization/103688.pdf) (27.01.2012). \ÕOÕ VRQUDVÕQGD ILQDQV NUL]OHULQLQ VD\ÕVÕ oRN \NVHOPLúWLU %XQXQ QHGHQL KHU QH NDGDU ILQDQVDO SL\DVDODUÕQ JHOLúLPL\OH RUDQWÕOÕ JLEL J|]NVH GH EDQNDFÕOÕN VHNW|UQQ \DSÕVDO GH÷LúLPOHULQLQ HWNLVL GH EXOXQPDNWDGÕU ùHNLO GH J|UOHFH÷L ]HUH \ÕOÕQGDQLWLEDUHQEDQNDFÕOÕNVHNW|UQQJHOLúLPLQGHILQDQVDOYDUOÕNODUGDQHOGHHGLOHQ JHWLUL EDQNDFÕOÕN VHNW|UQQ HVDV NXUXOXú DPDFÕ RODQ NUHGL YHUPH NROXQGDQ HOGH HWWL÷L JHWLUL\L JHoPH\H EDúODPÕúWÕU %LU QHYL ILQDQVDO SL\DVDODUGD \DWÕUÕPFÕ NRQXPXQGD RODQ ILQDQV NXUXOXúODUÕQÕQ DOGÕNODUÕ \NVHN ULVNOHU VRQ \ÕOGDNL DUWDQ ILQDQVNUL]LQLDoÕNODUQLWHOLNWHGLU. 11.

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