ONAY, Yaşar* TÜRKİYE/ТУРЦИЯ ÖZET
Belirsizlik Çağında Yeni Dünya DüzenininYanlış Vaadi
Sovyetler Birliği’nin beklemedik bir şekilde dağılması tüm dünyayı çok hazırlıksız olarak yakaladı. Bu Soğuk Savaş’ın sonu idi. Ancak başlayan neydi?
Bu sorunun yanıtı ülkeden ülkeye göre değişiyordu. Kimilerine göre yaşananlar bütün Kutsal kitaplarda sözü edilen Kutsal barış döneminin başlangıcıydı. Zira Şeytan’ın İmparatorluğu artık yok olmuştu.
Öte yandan, bazıları daha karamsardı. Ancak kısa süre içinde Saddam Hüseyin’in Kuveyt’i işgal etmesi, Balkanlardaki etnik ve dinî ağırlıklı savaş, Ermenistan ve Azerbaycan arasındaki savaş, Afrika’da yaşanan etnik temizlik gök kubbenin altında değişen çok şey olmadığını gösterdi. Yeni Dünya Düzeni’nin dinamiklerinin neler olacağı konusunda çok sayıda açıklama yapıldı ancak bunların hiçbiri yeterli değildi. Samuel Huntington ve Francis Fukuyama gibi siyaset bilimcilerine göre ABD’nin dünya egemenliği başlamıştı. Romalılar son düşmanları Mitridates’i yendiklerinden sonra Sulla, senatoda yaptığı konuşmada şu soruyu soruyordu. Artık yenecek başka düşman kalmadı, Roma’ya ne olacak? Yanıt 2 sene sonra kendiliğinden geldi. Roma İmparatorluğu dağıldı. Zira Roma gibi İmparatorluklar yaşayabilmek için düşmana gerek duyarlar. Şimdi ABD’nin de düşmanı kalmamıştı. Zira ideolojiler arasındaki savaş sona ermişti. Aranan düşman 11 Eylülle birlikte geldi. 11 Eylülde yaşananlar uluslararası sistemin dinamiklerini derinden etkiledi. Yaşananlardan sonra ABD küresel düzeyde harekete geçmek için yasal bir neden bulmuştu. Afganistan’ın işgali bu yolda atılan ilk adımdı.
Anahtar Kelimeler: Sovyetler Birliği, ABD, Yeni Dünya Düzeni, terör, Küresel Isınma.
ABSTRACT
The sudden collapse of the Soviet Union caught the world unexpectedly.
That was the end of the Cold War, however what was beginning? The answer of this question was also changing from state to state. Some believed that the holy peace period that has been written in many holy books would about to start,
*Assoc. Prof. Dr.,Istanbul Aydın University. e.mail:onay.yasar@gmail.com
because the empire of devil had been disintegrated.
On the other hand some were pessimist about the developments. But soon the Invasion of Kuwait by Saddam Hussein, the ethnic and religious war in Balkans, the civil war in Georgia and the war between Azerbaijan and Armenia, ethnic turmoil in Sab –Sahara in Africa proved that everything was the same under the same sky. Many explanations have been put forward to explain the dynamics of the New World Order, but none of them were satisfactory to understand what is going on in the international system. According to some political scientists such as Samuel Huntington and Francis Fukuyama, the era of USA had begun. When the Roman armies had beaten their last enemy, Mitridates, Sulla had made a speech in Roman Senate and had asked his famous question. “no more enemy to beat, what will happen to Roman Empire?” The answer had come two years later. The Roman Empire had disintegrated.
Empires such as Rome needs enemy to survive. But there was no enemy for USA. The war between ideologies had finished with the victory of USA. The wanted enemy had been found in September 11. The terrorist attack in USA in September 11, changed everything dramatically. The USA administration under the leadership of Bush had found a legitimate reason to act globally. The invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq were the first footsteps.
In this presentation the false promise of the New World Order will be discussed briefly.
Key Words: Soviet Union, USA, New World Order, Terrorism, Global Warming.
INTRODUCTION
Following the end of the Cold War, US President George Bush declared a New World Order. Although the dynamics of the new world order were not very clear, according to some The New World Order was based upon a unipolar concept of the world, meaning US superpower domination. Zbigniew Brzezinski was one of them and he describes the US strategy as: “an invasion”
in his book in 1993. He argues that American hegemony is unlike any previous hegemony because it is truly global. It is based on an unprecedented mixture of military supremacy, ideological ascendancy, technological innovation and control of the world’s financial system. Brzezinski says quite clearly that if America wants to control the world, as she should, then she must establish domination over Eurasia, especially what he calls “its Western periphery” (i. e.
the European Union) and also its ‘Heartland’, the Middle East, Central Asia and the oil resources which flow from there.
The Middle East is one of the strategically, economically, politically, culturally, and religiously sensitive region of the world. Therefore it has always been important in the eye of the global powers. This historical truth is maintaining her importance today and it is clear to see, it will continue to
maintain her validity in the coming years. The collapse of the Soviet Union opened a new era in the international system. September 11, 2001 terrorist attack and fighting against terrorism opened the doors of Middle East to USA.
Invasion of Afghanistan is followed by the invasion of Iraq. Then the “New Middle East” project was introduced publicly by Washington. According to the USA, promoting democracy and good governance; building a knowledge society; and expanding economic opportunities were the reasons of USA to be in the region. According to USA these reform priorities are the key to the region’s development. However the developments in Iraq today show us the opposite.
Thus there must be some other reasons hidden behind the curtain.
Occupation of Iraq was a turning point in the Greater Middle East Project because this invasion can be accepted to be the preparatory ground for the Balkanization (division) and Finlandization (pacification) of the Middle East.
On the other hand, The Middle East, Afghanistan, and Pakistan are stepping stones for extending U. S. influence into the former Soviet Union and the ex-Soviet Republics of Central Asia. The Middle East is to some extent the southern tier of Central Asia. Central Asia in turn is also termed as “Russia’s Southern Tier” or the Russian “Near Abroad.”1 It should be noted that in his book, The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geo-strategic Imperatives, Zbigniew Brzezinski, a former U.S. National Security Advisor, alluded to the modern Middle East as a control lever of an area he, Brzezinski, calls the Eurasian Balkans. The Eurasian Balkans consists of the Caucasus (Georgia, the Republic of Azerbaijan, and Armenia) and Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and to some extent both Iran and Turkey. Iran and Turkey both form the northernmost tiers of the Middle East (excluding the Caucasus) that edge into Europe and the former Soviet Union.2
Invasion of Iraq to control the energy sources of the region also seems to be logical but it must not be forgotten that USA CONTROLS three major financial institutions, The World Bank (WB), International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Trade Organizations (WTO) by various means to control the world economy, and US controls OPEC by way of two important oil stock exchange centers located in London and New York. In addition to this US oil companies in the region are very important actors. Thus United States does not need to send her troops to guard the oil well.
Another explanation related with the US presence in the Middle East is economic rather than being politics. The war between Euro and Dollar is becoming more important issue that is threatening the US Global sovereignty.
1http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=NAZ20061116&
articleId=38826. 17. 08. 2007.
2Ibid
Saddam Hussein switched to the Euro in November 2002: the result was the total destruction of the country and loss of independence. However OPEC or others decide to accept Euro only for its oil then American economic dominance can be over. It can be said:
Oil +Dollar= US Hegemony.
Oil+ Euro= End of the US hegemony.
US intention of holding Middle East and Afghanistan in his hands is the result of this politics. Everybody and every institution will be used by USA as long as they serve for the intentions of USA.
Another important factor that affects the US policy in the Middle East is the undeniable conclusions of the Global Climate Change. The clues of the Greater Middle East Project can be found in the speeches of US decision makers in 2004. However it is officially announced in the summit of G-8 in 2004. Both the Pentagon’s report on Global Climate Change and the Greater Middle East Project are announced in February 2004. Since this geography is clarified as less affected geography from the Global Climate Change in the Pentagon’s report, this can not be a chance.
Global Climate Change
A widely accepted theory assumes that the period lasting from the 4th until the 7th century A.D. has been called the period of the Migration of the Nations, reflecting the extensive migration of many groups. Many explanations have been put forward to explain the reasons of the migration of nations. Among them the most logical one is the change in the climate and change in conditions of life depending on this. Thousands of years later, the humanity is once more face to face with the danger of the migration of the nations. The reason is once more the same: The change in the climate. In Feb. 2004 Pentagon presented a secret report to President Bush about the potential results of the global heating.
According to the report, climate change over the next 30 years will result in a global catastrophe costing millions of lives in wars and natural disasters. As Pentagon said,” once again, warfare would define human life.” Peter Schwartz, CIA consultant and former head of planning at Royal Dutch/Shell Group, and Doug Randall of the California-based Global Business Network, has stated that Climate change should be elevated beyond a scientific debate to a US national security concern.
The whole world will naturally be affected from the results of the global climate change. However, according to the scientists the North Africa, South Eastern Europe, and Middle East will be more fortunate than the other regions.
Thus in February 2004 President Bush made a speech about the importance of democracy in Middle East and pronounced the Greater Middle East project for the first time. The “Greater Middle East” refers to the countries of the Arab world, plus Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Turkey, and Israel. In other words, this
is the geography that will be less influenced by the results of Global Climate Change.
Especially if the ocean conveyor slows down or collapses during the next two decades it can cool the North Atlantic region by as much as 5°C (9°F), creating winters of much greater severity. This means the end of the heating system of the Western civilization and the beginning of the migrations of Nations II, from West to East.
According to the Global Climate Change report prepared by the climatologists of the United Nations, there is no turning point from the level that the humanity has reached today. Even if we decide to reject what the high technology offer us and prefer natural way of living as our ancestors did once upon a time to protect the future of the humanity, it is impossible to return the process back. 3 The only thing we can achieve by doing this is to extend the time. According to the climatologists, the humanity has 30 or 40 years more. Thus, it can be said that towards the middle of the 21st c. There will be sharp changes in the dynamics of the International system. In the report, it is said that there is a risk of loosing the rain forests depending on the increase of the CO2 rate in the air. So many agricultural areas will be a desert. The inevitable result of this which is waiting for the humanity is the emergence of very serious starvation and diseases. Seasons will change. Winters will not be cold, springs will come earlier. Falls will be late so the balance of the nature will change. Melting of the terrestrial glaciers will affect the balance of the Gulf Stream, Atlantic Ocean Current.
Thus, depending on the collapse of the system, The Northern Hemisphere will turn back to the ice age, life will stop in these lands and mass migrations will be seen. Shortly the loss of Gulf Stream Atlantic Ocean Current will close one era and open a new one which is full with a lot of ambiguity.4 It will not be wrong to say that the global climate change will create the forming of the New World Order. Naturally the new world order will have its own political, social and economic dynamics. The leading actors of the international system of today are preparing themselves for the future to maintain their presence in the international system. Principle of continuity of the state is vitally important for every state in the system. However those states that can not determine their policies for the future, can not take place in the world of the future. History is full with the states disappeared like this. Shortly, states will either prepare themselves for tomorrows or will loose in history. US Ministry of Defense, Pentagon’s report about Global Climate Change is therefore very important.
This report is presented to US President Bush under the title of “Climate change will destroy us”.
3 http://www.sabah.com. tr/ozel/kuresel820/dosya_820. html, 28.01.07. “The scientific name of this is Global Climate Change. Global warming is one of the results of climate change”.
Many parts of the report is found dangerous for the security of US and therefore it’s kept confidential. However British Guardian Journal managed to publish some parts of the report. According to the report, major European cities will be sunk beneath rising seas as Britain is plunged into a ‘Siberian’ climate by 2020. Nuclear conflict, mega-droughts, famine and widespread rioting will erupt across the world. The document predicts that abrupt climate change could bring the planet to the edge of anarchy as countries develop a nuclear threat to defend and secure dwindling food, water and energy supplies. 5 The report was commissioned by influential Pentagon defense adviser Andrew Marshall, who has held considerable sway on US military thinking over the past three decades.
He was the man behind a sweeping recent review aimed at transforming the American military under Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. Therefore this report is proclaimed as “Pentagon is preparing for climate wars”.
On the other hand, according to the climatologists, in the year 2020 the climate of the Western Europe will change and life conditions will be very hard because of the severe colds. Especially England will be covered by ice. As a result of this development, millions of people will have to leave their places both in Europe and Continental America including USA and Canada. States of Central and South Eastern Europe, Eurasia, Middle East, North Africa will be less influenced from the Global Climate Change. Shortly the whole world will be influenced from this change. Some will leave their places to find new life sources; others will fight to protect their life sources. And it can be said
“nothing will the same from now on”.
How will the scenario of the catastrophe work?
Climatologists are explaining the process that will be the end of the Europe and North America like this: when it is gone to the North from Equator in the Northern Hemisphere, sun lights are striking to the world with a less angle and therefore the heat is decreasing. This is called “latitude effect” For example Turkey is located between 36-42 Northern Latitudes, and therefore she has very severe winter months. On the other hand, although England is located between 50-58 Northern latitudes, even Finland that is located in the 70 Northern latitude, winter months are not severe enough to threat the life of humans. The reason of this is the Gulf Stream Atlantic Current. Gulf Stream that originates in the Gulf of Mexico, exits through the Strait of Florida, and follows the eastern coastlines of the United States and Newfoundland before crossing the Atlantic Ocean. At about 30° W, 40° N, it splits in two, with the northern stream crossing to northern Europe and the southern stream recirculation off West Africa. The Gulf Stream influences the climate of the east coast of North America from Florida to Newfoundland, and the west coast of Europe. Depending on the loss of this current, all these states because of their geography will be face to face with
5 “Now the Pentagon tells Bush: Climate Change will Destroy us”, http://www.monthlyreview.
org/0504editors.htm. 26.01.2007.
freezing air and very severe winter conditions. According to Andreas Schmittner, from Oregon State University, global warming can melt the glaciers of the North Pole, and melting glaciers can stop the Gulf Stream current, and if this happens, the Northern hemisphere of the world can be in an ice age.6 Some other climatologists are also agree with Prof. Andreas and they say that Gulf Stream Atlantic Current has a power that is equal to 250.000 atomic power plants, the loss of this current especially in the winter months can cause the northern hemisphere to turn back to the ice age.7 Gulf Stream current is triggered in the waters of Iceland and it is getting heavy by cooling fast and flowing to the south from the 3 km depth and this pulls the hot water that has been formed in the tropical regions.8 This is how the system works under normal circumstances. But if the sea water is fed by the sweet water, this system does not work and big currents of the oceans loose their power.9 This is the danger. Because, too much evaporation in the tropical regions, can cause much rain in the North and so the ratio of salt in the sea water decreases. In addition to this, melting glaciers together with rains are mixing with the salty ocean currents will also decrease the ratio of salt. According to the results of the search done by National Center for Atmospheric Research NCAR and McGill University, all the glaciers may melt in the summer of 2040.10 Many climatologists’ claims that in the next ten years the glaciers will decrease from 5.9 million km2 to 1.9 million km2 and 35 years later there will be few glaciers in Greenland and Canadaand there will be no glacier in the North Sea in September 2060.11As it is known glaciers reflects the sun heat to the sky, but melting of the glaciers means these heat will be absorbed by the water
freezing air and very severe winter conditions. According to Andreas Schmittner, from Oregon State University, global warming can melt the glaciers of the North Pole, and melting glaciers can stop the Gulf Stream current, and if this happens, the Northern hemisphere of the world can be in an ice age.6 Some other climatologists are also agree with Prof. Andreas and they say that Gulf Stream Atlantic Current has a power that is equal to 250.000 atomic power plants, the loss of this current especially in the winter months can cause the northern hemisphere to turn back to the ice age.7 Gulf Stream current is triggered in the waters of Iceland and it is getting heavy by cooling fast and flowing to the south from the 3 km depth and this pulls the hot water that has been formed in the tropical regions.8 This is how the system works under normal circumstances. But if the sea water is fed by the sweet water, this system does not work and big currents of the oceans loose their power.9 This is the danger. Because, too much evaporation in the tropical regions, can cause much rain in the North and so the ratio of salt in the sea water decreases. In addition to this, melting glaciers together with rains are mixing with the salty ocean currents will also decrease the ratio of salt. According to the results of the search done by National Center for Atmospheric Research NCAR and McGill University, all the glaciers may melt in the summer of 2040.10 Many climatologists’ claims that in the next ten years the glaciers will decrease from 5.9 million km2 to 1.9 million km2 and 35 years later there will be few glaciers in Greenland and Canadaand there will be no glacier in the North Sea in September 2060.11As it is known glaciers reflects the sun heat to the sky, but melting of the glaciers means these heat will be absorbed by the water