Mahalle ölçekli depremsel zarar görebilirlik endeksi : Sakarya örneği

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(1)T. C. 6$.$5<$h1ø9(56ø7(6ø 626<$/%ø/ø0/(5(167ø7h6h. 0$+$//(g/d(./ø'(35(06(/=$5$5 *g5(%ø/ø5/ø.(1'(.6ø6$.$5<$g51(öø. '2.725$7(=ø .DPLO7$ù.,1. (QVWLW$QDELOLP'DOÕ. : øúOHWPH. (QVWLW%LOLP'DOÕ. hUHWLP<|QHWLPLYH3D]DUODPD. 7H]'DQÕúPDQÕ: Yrd. 'Ro'U0XUDW$<$12ö/8. TEMMUZ 2012.

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(3) BEYAN Bu tezin. yazÕOmasÕQGD bilimsel ahlak kurallarÕna uyuldu÷unu, baúkalarÕQÕQ. eserlerinden yararlanÕOmasÕ durumunda bilimsel normlara uygun olarak DWÕIWD EXOXQXOGX÷XQX, kullanÕlan verilerde herhangi bir tahrifat yapÕOmDGÕ÷ÕQÕ tezin herhangi bir NÕVmÕQÕn EX Qiversite veya baúka bir Qiversitedeki bDúka bir tez oalÕúmasÕ olarak sunulmadÕ÷ÕnÕbeyan ederim. Kamil 7$ù.,1 26.07.2012. i.

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(6) =DUDU*|UHELOLUOLN.DYUDPÕøoLQ*HOLúWLULOHQ<DSÕVDO0RGHOOHU ..................... 37 =DUDU*|UHELOLUOLNdDOÕúPDODUÕQGD*HOLúWLULOHQøQGHNVOHU ............................... 45 'HSUHP$IHWL5LVNøQGHNVL ('5,

(7) ................................................... 45 dHYUHVHO=DUDU*|UHELOLUOLNøQGHNVL (9,

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(10) .................................................................... 47 $IHW5LVNL*|VWHUJHOHULYH5LVN<|QHWLPLøQGHNVL ............................ 47 2.7..DVÕUJD5LVNøQGHNVL +'5,

(11) ............................................................ 48 %\NúHKLUOHUøoLQ'R÷DO$IHWøQGHNVL 1+,0

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(15) ................................................................. 50 %DVNÕQ=DUDU*|UHELOLUOLNøQGHNVL 39,

(16) .......................................... 51 5LVN<|QHWLPøQGHNVL 50,

(17) ........................................................... 51 =DUDU*|UHELOLUOLNdDOÕúPDODUÕQGD.XOODQÕODQ*|VWHUJHOHU ............................ 53 7UNL\H¶GH=DUDU*|UHELOLUOLNdDOÕúPDODUÕ ..................................................... 59 &R÷UDIL%LOJL6LVWHPOHULQLQ=DUDU*|UHELOLUOLNdDOÕúPDODUÕQGDNLgQHPL .... 62 'H÷HUOHQGLUPH .............................................................................................. 62 %g/h0$5$ù7,50$'ø=$<1,YH<g17(0ø ...................................... 64 0DKDOOHOHU%D]ÕQGD=DUDU*|UHELOLUOL÷L(WNLOH\HQ%R\XWODUÕQ%HOLUOHQPHVL .. 67 =DUDU*|UHELOLUOL÷L(WNLOH\HQ*|VWHUJHOHULQ%HOLUOHQPHVLYH7DQÕPODQPDVÕ . 68 )L]LNVHO=DUDU*|UHELOLUOLNOHøOJLOL*|VWHUJHOHU .................................. 71 <R÷XQOXN<DSÕVÕ ................................................................... 72 3.2.1.2. =HPLQ<DSÕVÕ ......................................................................... 76 6RV\DO=DUDU*|UHELOLUOLNOHøOJLOL*|VWHUJHOHU .................................... 83 3.2.2.1. +DVVDV1IXV ......................................................................... 83 %LOLQo']H\L......................................................................... 85 .D\QDNODUD(ULúLP']H\L ................................................... 85 (NRQRPLN=DUDU*|UHELOLUOLNOHøOJLOL*|VWHUJHOHU .............................. 87. ii.

(18) 7DúÕQPD]ODUÕQ'XUXPX .......................................................... 88 (NRQRPLN*HOLúPLúOLN ........................................................... 88 *|VWHUJHOHUH%D÷OÕ2ODUDN9HULOHULQ7RSODQPDVÕ .......................................... 89 9HULOHULQgOoHNOHQGLULOPHVL............................................................................ 91 *|VWHUJHOHULQ0RGHOGHNL$÷ÕUOÕNODUÕQÕQ%HOLUOHQPHVL ................................... 93 *HQHO=DUDU*|UHELOLUOLN(QGHNVLQLQ2OXúWXUXOPDVÕ ...................................... 98 %g/h08<*8/$0$YH'(ö(5/(1'ø50( ...................................... 101 *|VWHUJH'H÷HUOHULQLQ+HVDSODQPDVÕ ........................................................... 106 1IXV<R÷XQOX÷X*|VWHUJH'H÷HUOHULQLQ2OXúWXUXOPDVÕ ................ 106 %LQD<R÷XQOX÷X*|VWHUJH'H÷HUOHULQLQ2OXúWXUXOPDVÕ .................. 107 .DW<NVHNOL÷L*|VWHUJH'H÷HUOHULQLQ2OXúWXUXOPDVÕ ..................... 108 =HPLQ6ÕYÕODúPD'XUXPX*|VWHUJH'H÷HUOHULQLQ2OXúWXUXOPDVÕ ... 110 =HPLQ7DúÕPD.DSDVLWHVL*|VWHUJH'H÷HUOHULQLQ2OXúWXUXOPDVÕ .... 112 %Hú <Dú $OWÕ YH $WPÕúEHú <Dú h]HUL 1IXV *|VWHUJH 'H÷HUOHULQLQ 2OXúWXUXOPDVÕ ................................................................................. 113 .DGÕQ1IXV*|VWHUJH'H÷HUOHULQLQ2OXúWXUXOPDVÕ ........................ 114 2UWDODPD+DQH+DONÕ6D\ÕVÕ*|VWHUJH'H÷HUOHULQLQ2OXúWXUXOPDVÕ 115 *HQHO6D÷OÕN6LJRUWDVÕ*|VWHUJH'H÷HUOHULQLQ2OXúWXUXOPDVÕ ......... 116 2NXU\D]DU 2OPD\DQ 1IXV 2UDQÕ *|VWHUJH 'H÷HUOHULQLQ 2OXúWXUXOPDVÕ ................................................................................. 117 /LVDQV YH /LVDQV hVW (÷LWLP $OPÕú 1IXV 2UDQÕ *|VWHUJH 'H÷HUOHULQLQ2OXúWXUXOPDVÕ............................................................ 118 &DPL2UDQÕ*|VWHUJH'H÷HUOHULQLQ2OXúWXUXOPDVÕ ........................ 119 'HUVOLN %DúÕQD 'úHQ 1IXV 2UDQÕ *|VWHUJH 'H÷HUOHULQLQ 2OXúWXUXOPDVÕ ................................................................................. 120 1IXV$UWÕú+Õ]Õ2UDQÕ*|VWHUJH'H÷HUOHULQLQ2OXúWXUXOPDVÕ ...... 121 6DWÕOÕN'DLUH)L\DWODUÕ*|VWHUJH'H÷HUOHULQLQ2OXúWXUXOPDVÕ ........ 122 6DWÕOÕN$UVD)L\DWODUÕ*|VWHUJH'H÷HUOHULQLQ2OXúWXUXOPDVÕ ......... 123 4.1.16. Ortalama 6X6DUIL\DW*|VWHUJH'H÷HUOHULQLQ2OXúWXUXOPDVÕ ......... 124 7LFDUHWKDQH*|VWHUJH'H÷HUOHULQLQ2OXúWXUXOPDVÕ ........................ 125 0DUNHW*|VWHUJH'H÷HUOHULQLQ2OXúWXUXOPDVÕ ............................... 126 %DQNDùXEHVL*|VWHUJH'H÷HUOHULQLQ2OXúWXUXOPDVÕ ..................... 127. iii.

(19) $OW)DNW|U'H÷HUOHULQLQ+HVDSODQPDVÕ......................................................... 128 <R÷XQOXN<DSÕVÕ$OW)DNW|U'H÷HUOHULQLQ+HVDSODQPDVÕ ................ 128 =HPLQ<DSÕVÕ$OW)DNW|U'H÷HUOHULQLQ+HVDSODQPDVÕ ..................... 129 +DVVDV1IXV<DSÕVÕ$OW)DNW|U'H÷HUOHULQLQ+HVDSODQPDVÕ .......... 130 %LOLQo'XUXPX$OW)DNW|U'H÷HUOHULQLQ+HVDSODQPDVÕ ................... 131 .D\QDNODUD(ULúLP$OW)DNW|U'H÷HUOHULQLQ+HVDSODQPDVÕ ............. 133 7DúÕQPD]ODU$OW)DNW|U'H÷HUOHULQLQ+HVDSODQPDVÕ ....................... 134 (NRQRPLN*HOLúPLúOLN$OW)DNW|U'H÷HUOHULQLQ+HVDSODQPDVÕ ....... 135 4.3. =DUDU*|UHEOLUOLN%R\XW'H÷HUOHULQLQ+HVDSODQPDVÕYH&R÷UDIL%LOJL6LVWHPL <DUGÕPÕøOH*|VWHUimi ......................................................................................... 136 )L]LNVHO=DUDU*|UHELOLUOLN%R\XWXQXQ+HVDSODQPDVÕ ..................... 136 6RV\DO=DUDU*|UHELOLUOLN%R\XWXQXQ+HVDSODQPDVÕ ....................... 139 (NRQRPLN=DUDU*|UHELOLUOLN%R\XWXQXQ+HVDSODQPDVÕ ................. 141 0DKDOOH %D]OÕ 'HSUHPGHQ =DUDU *|UHELOLUOLN (QGHNVL 0'=*ø

(20) 2OXúWXUXOPDVÕYH&R÷UDIL%LOJL6LVWHPLLOH*|VWHULOPHVL .................................... 143 6RQXoODUÕQ'H÷HUOHQGLULOPHVL ...................................................................... 145 dDOÕúPDGDNL9DUVD\ÕPODUÕQ.ÕVÕWODUYH=D\ÕI<|QOHULQ$oÕNODQPDVÕ ......... 147 6218dYHg1(5ø/(5.................................................................................... 150 KAYNAKLAR .................................................................................................. 156 EKLER ............................................................................................................... 176 g=*(d0øù ....................................................................................................... 193. iv.

(21) KISALTMALAR UNEP. : United Nations Environment Programme. UNISDR. : United Nations Office For Disaster Risk Reduction. UNDP. : United Nations Development Programme. IPCC. : Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change. ISDR. : Internationa Strategy For Disaster Reduction. PAR. : The Pressure And Release. EDRI. : The Earthquake Disaster Risk Index. EVI. : Environmental Vulnerability Index. MIDRC. : Measuring Improvements in Disaster Resilience of Communities. DRI. : Disaster Risk Index. NHIM. : Natural Hazard Index for Megacities. DDI. : Disaster Deficit Index. LDI. : Local Disaster Index. PVI. : The Prevalent Vulnerability Index. RMI. : The Risk Management Index. HDRI. : Hurricane Disaster Risk Index. SOVI. : Social Vulnerability To Environmental Hazards. SFVI. : Social Flood Vulnerability Index. CBS. : &R÷UDIL%LOJL6LVWHPL. 0'=*ø. : 0DKDOOH']H\LQGH=DUDU*|UHELOLUOLNøQGHNVL. JICA. : Japan International Cooperation Agency. MS. : Surface Wave Size - Y]H\'DOJDVÕ%\NO÷. v.

(22) 7$%/2/ø67(6ø Tablo 1: 7UNL\H GHNL<HUOHúLP<HUOHULQLQ$IHWOHUH0DUX].DOPD'XUXPX ..... 21 Tablo 2: GHQ \H.DGDU'R÷DO$IHWOHULQ7UNL\H GHNL'XUXPX .......... 25 Tablo 3: 7UNL\H¶GH(Q)D]ODgOPOH6RQXoODQDQøON2Q$IHW .......................... 26 Tablo 4: 7UNL\H¶GH(WNLOHGL÷LøQVDQ6D\ÕVÕ(Q)D]OD2ODQøON2Q$IHW ............ 27 Tablo 5: (NRQRPLN<|QGHQ7UNL\H¶\L(WNLOH\HQøON2Q$IHW .......................... 28 Tablo 6: 7HKOLNHOHU =DUDU *|UHELOLUOLN YH 5LVNL .DYUDPVDOODúWÕUDQ %WQFO +L\HUDUúLN%LUdHUoHYH ....................................................................... 33 Tablo 7: /LWHUDWUGH<HUDODQ%D]Õ=DUDU*|UHELOLUOLNdDOÕúPDODUÕg]HWL ............. 52 Tablo 8: /LWDUDWUGH<HU$ODQ*|VWHUJHOHU ......................................................... 54 Tablo 9: 7UNL\H¶GH5LVN8QVXUODUÕQÕQ'D÷ÕOÕPÕ ................................................ 60 Tablo 10: *|VWHUJH6HoLP.ULWHUOHUL ................................................................... 69 Tablo 11: )L]LNVHO=DUDU*|UHELOLUOLNOHøOJLOL$OW)DNW|UOHU ................................. 72 Tablo 12: <R÷XQOXN<DSÕVÕQÕ2OXúWXUDQ*|VWHUJHOHU ......................................... 73 Tablo 13: $GDSD]DUÕ¶QGD%LQD.DW<NVHNOL÷LQH%D÷OÕ+DVDU ........................... 76 Tablo 14: =HPLQ<DSÕVÕQD$LW*|VWHUJHOHU ......................................................... 77 Tablo 15: =HPLQ6ÕYÕODúPD$÷ÕUOÕN7DEORVX ....................................................... 79 Tablo 16: =HPLQ7DúÕPD$÷ÕUOÕN7DEORVX ........................................................... 81 Tablo 17: 6RV\DO=DUDU*|UHELOLUOLNOHøOJLOL$OW)DNW|UOHU ................................... 83 Tablo 18: Hassas 1IXVD$LW*|VWHUJHOHU ........................................................... 84 Tablo 19: %LOLQo']H\LQH$LW*|VWHUJHOHU ........................................................ 85 Tablo 20: .D\QDNODUD(ULúLP']H\LQH$LW*|VWHUJHOHU .................................... 86 Tablo 21: 'HSUHPLQGH0LOOL(÷LWLPH%D÷OÕ2NXOODUÕQ+DVDU'XUXPX ...... 86 Tablo 22: (NRQRPLN=DUDU*|UHELOLUOL÷L2OXúWXUDQ$OW)DNW|UOHr....................... 87 Tablo 23: 7DúÕQPD]ODUÕQ'XUXPXQD$LW*|VWHUJHOHU .......................................... 88 Tablo 24: (NRQRPLN*HOLúPLúOLN$OW)DNW|UQH$LW*|VWHUJHOHU ........................ 89 Tablo 25: dDOÕúPDGD.XOODQÕODQ*|VWHUJHOHUH$LW9HUL.D\QDNODUÕ ................... 91 Tablo 26: Zarar *|UHELOLUOLN dDOÕúPDODUÕQGD .XOODQÕODQ Verilerin gOoHNOHQGLULOPH <|QWHPOHUL ............................................................ 92 Tablo 27: *|VWHUJHOHULQ0RGHOi (WNLOHPH<|QOHUL ............................................. 95 vi.

(23) Tablo 28: 8]PDQODUÕQ*|VWHUJH $÷ÕUOÕNODQGÕUPD6RQXoODU ................................ 96 Tablo 29: dDOÕúPDQÕQ<DSÕODFD÷Õ0DKDOOHOHUHøOLúNLQ9HULOHU .......................... 105 Tablo 30: 1IXV<R÷XQOX÷X*|VWHUJH'H÷HUOHULQLQ2OXúWXUXOPDVÕ ................. 107 Tablo 31: %LQD<R÷XQOX÷X*|VWHUJH'H÷HUOHULQLQ2OXúWXUXOPDVÕ.................... 108 Tablo 32: .DW<NVHNOL÷L*|VWHUJH'H÷HUOHULQLQ2OXúWXUXOPDVÕ ...................... 110 Tablo 33: =HPLQ6ÕYÕODúPD'XUXPX*|VWHUJH'H÷HUOHULQLQ2OXúWXUXOPDVÕ..... 111 Tablo 34: =HPLQ7DúÕPD.DSDVLWHVL*|VWHUJH 'H÷HUOHULQLQ2OXúWXUXOPDVÕ ..... 112 Tablo 35: %Hú <Dú $OWÕ YH $WPÕúEHú <Dú h]HUL 1IXV *|VWHUJH 'H÷HUOHULQLQ 2OXúWXUXOPDVÕ .................................................................................. 113 Tablo 36: .DGÕQ1IXV*|VWHUJH'H÷HUOHULQLQ2OXúWXUXOPDVÕ.......................... 114 Tablo 37: 2UWDODPD+DQH+DONÕ6D\ÕVÕ*|VWHUJH'H÷HUOHULQLQ2OXúWXUXOPDVÕ . 115 Tablo 38: *HQHO6D÷OÕN6LJRUWDVÕ*|VWHUJH'H÷HUOHULQLQ2OXúWXUXOPDVÕ .......... 116 Tablo 39: 2NXU\D]DU2OPD\DQ1IXV2UDQÕ*|VWHUJH'H÷HUOHULQLQ2OXúWXUXOPDVÕ .......................................................................................................... 117 Tablo 40: /LVDQV YH /LVDQV hVW (÷LWLP $OPÕú 1IXV 2UDQÕ *|VWHUJH 'H÷HUOHULQLQ2OXúWXUXOPDVÕ............................................................ 118 Tablo 41: &DPL %DúÕQD 'úHQ 1IXV 6D\ÕVÕ 2UDQÕ *|VWHUJH 'H÷HUOHULQLQ 2OXúWXUXOPDVÕ .................................................................................. 119 Tablo 42: 'HUVOLN %DúÕQD 'úHQ 1IXV 2UDQÕ *|VWHUJH 'H÷HUOHULQLQ 2OXúWXUXOPDVÕ ................................................................................ 120 Tablo 43: 1IXV$UWÕú+Õ]Õ2UDQÕ*|VWHUJH'H÷HUOHULQLQ2OXúWXUXOPDVÕ ......... 121 Tablo 44: 6DWÕOÕN'DLUH)L\DWODUÕ*|VWHUJH'H÷HUOHULQLQ2OXúWXUXOPDVÕ ........... 122 Tablo 45: 6DWÕOÕN $UVD)L\DWODUÕ*|VWHUJH'H÷HUOHULQLQ2OXúWXUXOPDVÕ ............ 123 Tablo 46: 2UWDODPD6X6DUIL\DW*|VWHUJH'H÷HUOHULQLQ2OXúWXUXOPDVÕ ............ 124 Tablo 47: 7LFDUHWKDQH*|VWHUJH'H÷HUOHULQLQ2OXúWXUXOPDVÕ ........................... 125 Tablo 48: 0DUNHW*|VWHUJH'H÷HUOHULQLQ2OXúWXUXOPDVÕ .................................. 126 Tablo 49: BankDùXEHVL*|VWHUJH'H÷HUOHULQLQ2OXúWXUXOPDVÕ ........................ 127 Tablo 50: <R÷XQOXN<DSÕVÕ$OW)DNW|U'H÷HUOHULQLQ+HVDSODQPDVÕ ................. 129 Tablo 51: ZemiQ<DSÕVÕ$OW)DNW|U'H÷HUOHULQLQ+HVDSODQPDVÕ ...................... 130 Tablo 52: +DVVDV1IXV<DSÕVÕ$OW)DNW|U'H÷HUOHULQLQ+HVDSODQPDVÕ ........... 131 Tablo 53: %LOLQo'XUXPX$OW)DNW|U'H÷HUOHULQLQ+HVDSODQPDVÕ .................... 132. vii.

(24) Tablo 54: .D\QDNODUD(ULúLP$OW)DNW|U'H÷HUOHULQLQ+HVDSODQPDVÕ .............. 133 Tablo 55: 7DúÕQPD]ODU$OW)DNW|U'H÷HUOHULQLQ+HVDSODQPDVÕ ........................ 134 Tablo 56: (NRQRPLN*HOLúPLúOLN$OW)DNW|U'H÷HUOHULQLQ+HVDSODQPDVÕ ........ 135 Tablo 57: %R\XW$÷ÕUOÕNODUÕ ............................................................................... 136 Tablo 58: )L]LNVHO=DUDU*|UHELOLUOLN%R\XWXQXQ+HVDSODQPDVÕ ...................... 137 Tablo 59: 6RV\DO=DUDU*|UHELOLUOLN%R\XWXQXQ+HVDSODQPDVÕ ........................ 139 Tablo 60: (NRQRPLN=DUDU*|UHELOLUOLN%R\XWXQXQ+HVDSODQPDVÕ .................. 141 Tablo 61: 0DKDOOH%D]OÕ'HSUHPGHQ=DUDU*|UHELOLUOLN(QGHNVL7DEORVX ....... 144 Tablo 62: $OW)DNW|UOHUH*|UH=DUDU*|UHELOLUOL÷L(Q<NVHN0DKDOOHOHU ....... 152 Tablo 63: %R\XWODUD*|UH=DUDU*|UHELOLUOL÷L<NVHN2ODQ0DKDOOHOHU ........... 153 Tablo 64: 0'=*ø¶VL<NVHN2ODQ0DKDOOHOHU ................................................. 153. viii.

(25) ù(.ø//ø67(6ø ùHNLO: %LU2OD\ÕQ.D]DGDQ$IHWH'|QúPHVL ...................................................... 8 ùHNLO: $IHWOHUH0DUX].DOPDYH2OD\6RQXFXgOm 2UDQÕQD<|QHOLN*HOLúPLú vH*HOLúPHNWH2ODQhONH.DUúÕODúWÕUPDVÕ ............................................. 9 ùHNLO: 'R÷DO$IHW7UOHUL ................................................................................... 11 ùHNLO: 1900-$UDVÕQGD*HUoHNOHúHQ'R÷DO$IHW6D\ÕODUÕ ........................... 12 ùHNLO: 'Q\D¶GD'R÷DO$IHWOHULQ(WNLOHGL÷LøQVDQ6D\ÕVÕ .................................. 12 ùHNLO: 'Q\D¶GD 'R÷DO$IHWOHULQ(NRQRPLN%R\XWX......................................... 13 ùHkil 7: 1900- '|QHPLQGH7UNL\H¶GH0!2ODQ'HSUHPOHU ................. 14 ùHNLO: $IHW<|QHWLPLQLQ*HoLUGL÷L(YUHOHU ........................................................ 17 ùHNLO: $IHW<|QHWLPL'|QJV .......................................................................... 18 ùHNLO : <ÕOÕQGDQ 6RQXQD .DGDU 7UNL\H \L (WNLOH\HQ ùLGGHWL YH h]HUL2ODQ'HSUHPOHU ......................................................................... 20 ùHNLO: <DVDODUdHUoHYHVLQGH7UNL\H QLQ$IHWOHUH<|QHOLN*HoLUGL÷L(YUHOHU 22 ùHNLO : &XPKXUL\HW 7DULKL %R\XQFD <DúDQDQ $IHW 6D\ÕODUÕ vH dÕNDQ <DVDO ']HQOHPHOHU ...................................................................................... 24 ùHNLO: =DUDU*|UHELOLUOL÷L$oÕNOD\DQ.DYUDPODU .............................................. 31 ùHNLO: 5LVNLQ7HKOLNHYH=DUDU*|UHELOLUOL÷LQ%LOHúNHVL2ODUDN7DQÕPÕ .......... 32 ùHNLO: 5LVNLQho%R\XWD*|UH7DQÕPÕ ............................................................. 34 ùHNLO: =DUDU*|UHELOLUOLN.DYUDPÕQÕQ$QDKWDU+DONDODUÕ................................. 39 ùHNLO: BBC Kavramsal Modeli ........................................................................ 40 ùHNLO: ,6'5 \H*|UH=DUDU*|UHELOLUOLN%R\XWODUÕ ........................................... 41 ùHNLO: PAR Modeli........................................................................................... 43 ùHNLO: <HUOHúLP<HUL=DUDU*|UHELOLUOL÷L.......................................................... 44 ùHNLO: $UDúWÕUPD'L]D\QÕ ................................................................................. 66 ùHNLO: %LQD<R÷XQOX÷Xnun Hasara Etkisi ........................................................ 74 ùHNLO: %LQD<R÷XQOX÷XQXQ+HVDSODQPDVÕ ....................................................... 75 ùHNLO: 'HSUHPLQGH$GDSD]DUÕ¶QGD=HPLQ6ÕYÕODúPDVÕ<DúDPÕú%ina ... 78 ùHNLO: &%6LOH6ÕYÕODúDQ=HPLQYH%LQD6D\ÕODUÕQÕQ%XOXQPDVÕ ..................... 80 ùHNLO: &%6LOH=HPLQ7DúÕPD.DSDVLWHVLYH%LQD6D\ÕODUÕQÕQ%XOXQPDVÕ ...... 82. ix.

(26) ùHNLO: 9HULOHUGHQ(QGHNV2OXúWXUPD3LUDPLGL ................................................ 90 ùHNLO: *|VWHUJHOHULQ8]PDQ3XDQODPDVÕYH2UWDODPDODUÕ ............................... 97 ùHNLO: =DUDU*|UHELOLUOLN%R\XWODUÕQÕQ%LUOHúWLULOPHVL ..................................... 99 ùHNLO: 8\JXODPDQÕQ<DSÕOGÕ÷Õ$GDSD]DUÕ+DULWDVÕ ........................................ 103 ùHNLO: )L]LNVHO=DUDU*|UHELOLUOLN7HPDWLN+DULWDVÕ ....................................... 138 ùHNLO: 6RV\DO=DUDU*|UHELOLUOLN7HPDWLN+DULWDVÕ ......................................... 140 ùHNLO: (NRQRPLN=DUDU*|UHELOLUOLN+DULWDVÕ ................................................. 142 ùHNLO: 0'=*ø+DULWDVÕ .................................................................................. 145 ùHNLO: Fiziksel, Sosyal, (NRQRPLN=DUDU*|UHELOLUOLNYH0'=*ø+DULWDODUÕQÕQ 7RSOX*|VWHULPL ................................................................................ 147. x.

(27) SDNDU\DhQLYHUVLWHVL6RV\DO%LOLPOHU(QVWLWV. Doktora 7H]g]HWL. 7H]LQ %DúOÕ÷Õ: 0DKDOOH gOoHNOL 'HSUHPVHO =DUDU *|UHELOLUOLN (QGHNVL: Sakarya gUQH÷L 7H]LQ<D]DUÕ: .DPLO7$ù.,1. 'DQÕúPDQ: Yrd. 'Ro'U0XUDW$<$12ö/8. Kabul Tarihi: 26.07.2012. 6D\ID6D\ÕVÕ: xii |QNÕVÕP

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(29) Sakarya University Institute of Social Sciences. Abstract of PhD Thesis. Title Of The Thesis: A District Based Earthquake Vulnerability Index: The Keys of Sakarya Author: .DPLO7$ù.,1 Supervisor: Assist. Prof. 'U0XUDW$<$12ö/8 Date: 26.07.2012 Department: Business. No. of pages: xii (pre text) + 193 (main body) Subfield: Production Management and Marketing. Within the context of relation between nature and human beings, the nature set limits for human beings and their activities as well as lying behind major disasters. What make natural events disasters are devastating effects of them on social and economic life. The devastating effects of events are directly connected to the severity of disasters. The society and individuals do not experience the effects of the disaster equally. The devastating effects of similar disasters on different societies may differ according to preparedness of society to disasters, since vulnerability is directly related to preparedness to disasters and social, economic and physical differences between society and regions. It will be false approach to try to understand pecuniary loss and intangible damages in terms of physical size. This study aims to analyse vulnerability from social, economic and physical points of view and to develop district scale earthquake vulnerability index emphasizing disaster vulnerability. The studies of disaster vulnerability are generally on regional based where social life on micro and macro basis is leading. This study aims to develop a model to measure vulnerability on micro basis. The model includes three main factors, seven sub-factors and nineteHQ LQGLFDWRUV 7KH LQGLFDWRUV DUH GHWHUPLQHG DFFRUGLQJ WR 7XUNH\¶V VSHFLILF conditions and available and measurable on the regional basis. Some of the information by public and private institutions is converted to data by Geographic Information Systems. The data is normalized by maximum and minimum values formula to make them available and aim to reach indications using the weights by experts. The model is applied on thirty four district of Sakarya Metropolitan Municipality and the results are analysed. This study differs from other disaster vulnerability studies in terms of indicators presented and size of application area and suggests that there may be differences in terms of vulnerability on micro basis.. Key words: Vulnerability, Disaster Risk Index, Regional Vulnerability. SUMMARY. xii.

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(36) %g/h0 1: AFET ve KAVRAMSAL ALT YAPI 'R÷DGD \HU DODQ WP FDQOÕODU KD\DWODUÕQÕ GHYDP ettireELOPHN LoLQ \HWHUOL \HWHQHNOHUHVDKLSROPDVÕQDNDUúÕQLQVDQ LoLQ IL]LNLRODUDNE|\OHELUGXUXPGDQV|] HGLOHPH]øQVDQÕQEXPFDGHOHGHIDUN\DUDWDQER\XWXDNÕO\UWHELOPHVLROPXúWXU (7UH ) 6RV\DO ER\XWD VDKLS RODQ LQVDQR÷OX \DúDPÕQÕ NROD\ODúWÕUPD DGÕQD WRSOXKDOGH\DúDPDJHUH÷LKLVVHWPLútir(VNLoD÷ODUGDQJQP]HEXELUOLNWHOL÷LQ YHUPLú ROGX÷X Jo LOH WHN EDúÕQD DOWÕQGDQ NDONDPD\DFD÷Õ ]RUOXNODUÕQ VWHVLQGHQ JHOPLú E|\OHOLNOH oD÷ODU DoPÕú KD\DWÕQÕ NROD\ODúWÕUÕUNHQ \DúDP NDOLWHVLQL DUWWÕUPD\Õ ELOPLúWLU (Bennet, 1996) 7RSOX \DúDPD EX DYDQWDMODUÕQÕQ \DQÕQGD ELUoRNGH]DYDQWDMÕGDEHUDEHULQGHJHWLUPLúWLU6DOJÕQKDVWDOÕNODU\DQJÕQODULQVDQÕQ ROXúWXUGX÷XNLWOHOHULoLQbir WHKGLWROPXúWXU%XQXQ\DQÕQGDWRSOXKDOGH\DúDPD\D ED÷OÕ RODUDN meydana gelen DIHWOHULQ LQVDQODUÕQ WRSOX \DúDPD DODQODUÕQda JHUoHNOHúPHVL GXUXPXQGDFDQYHPDOND\ÕSODUÕQÕQID]ODOÕ÷ÕQDQHGHQROPXúWXU *HoPLúWHYHJQP]GH\HUOHúLPOHULQLQ\R÷XQRODUDNJ|UOG÷NHQWVHOE|OJHOHU QIXVXQHNRQRPLNYHNOWUHOIDDOL\HWOHULQ\R÷XQRODUDNJ|UOG÷\HUOHUdir. Bu |]HOOLNOHULLOHNDUPDúÕN LPDUG]HQOHUL YH \NVHNVHYL\HOHUGHNL QIXV \R÷XQOX÷X ile \HUOHúLPE|OJHOHULafetlere DoÕNGXUXPGDGÕUODU(*HQo: 349). <D]ÕOÕ WDULKLQ EDúODQJÕFÕQGDQ LWLEDUHQ LQVDQR÷OXQXQ oD÷ODU ER\XQFD DIHWOH NDUúÕ NDUúÕ\D NDOPÕúWÕU $IHWOHU GR÷D ROD\ODUÕ VRQXFX ROXúDELOHFH÷L JLEL LQVDQ ND\QDNOÕ YDNDODURODUDNGDNDUúÕPÕ]DoÕNPDNWDGÕU$IHWOHUJHUHNHWNLDODQODUÕJHUHNVHWDKULS JoOHUL RODUDN IDUNOÕOÕNlar J|VWHUPHNWH ROXS YXNXX EXOGX÷X E|OJH ELU \HUOHúLP ELULPLQH LVDEHW HWWL÷LQGH DIHWLQ úLGGHWL YH HWNLVLQH J|UH FDQ YH PDO ND\ÕSODUÕQD QHGHQROGX÷XJ|UOPúWU Afetler úLGGHWOHULQHJ|UHWRSOXPODUÕQHNRQRPLOHULnVRV\DOKD\DWODUÕQÕYDUOÕNODUÕQÕ etkileye bilmektedirler. Afetlerin meydana gelme RODVÕOÕNODUÕKHVDSHGLOHUHN riskler en aza indirilebilinir. B|\OHFH ROXúDELOHFHN FDQ YH PDO ND\ÕSODUÕQÕQ ELU NÕVPÕQÕQ |QQHJHoLOHELOLr (<ÕOPD]). Fakat yapÕODFDNRODQEXoDOÕúPDODUDVODYDURODQ riskleri yok edemezler. %XGXUXPDIHWOHUHNDUúÕKD]ÕUOÕN\DSPDPD\ÕJHUHNWLUPH]. 7RSOXP PHQIDDWOHUL LFDEÕ DIHW |QFHVL YH vukuu bulan VRQUDVÕQGD afeti idare etmek, duruma WHSNLVL]NDOPDNWDQGDKD\DUDUOÕRODFDNWÕU. 5.

(37) &R÷UDILN NRQXPX JHUH÷L 7UNL\H DIHWOHULQ VÕN VÕN \DúDQGÕ÷Õ ELU ONH ROPXúWXU hONHQLQ WHNWRQLN tapografik YH MHRORMLN GXUXPODUÕ JHUH÷L DIHWOHU VÕN VÕN NDUúÕODúWÕ÷ÕPÕ] GXUXPODU RODUDN EHOLUPHNWHGLU .HQWOHúPHOHULQ EX WLS ULVNOHULQ ROGX÷XE|OJHOHUGH\R÷XQODúPDVÕ7UNL\HLoLQPH\GDQDJHOHQYHJHOHFHNDIHWOHUGH FDQ ND\ÕSODUÕ \DUDODQPD YH PDGGL KDVDUODUÕQÕQ \NVHN ROPDVÕQD QHGHQ ROPDNWDGÕU *HUHNGR÷DOsebeplerin VRQXFXJHUHNVHLQVDQND\QDNOÕDIHWOHUVRQXFXQGDPH\GDQD JHOHFHN FDQ YH PDO ND\ÕSODUÕQÕQ E\N PLNWDUODUGD RODELOHFH÷L ELOLQFL, H÷LWLP YH LOHWLúLP LPNkQODUÕQÕQ DUWPDVÕ LOH JQP]GH NDEXO J|UPú YH KHUNHV WDUDIÕQGDQ ELOLQHQELUJHUoHNKDOLQLDOPÕúWÕU%XQGDQGROD\Õ GD\DúDQDQYH \DúDQDFDNEXWLS GXUXPODUDKD]ÕUOÕNOÕ ROPDJHUHNOLOL÷LNDEXOHGLOPLúROXSJHUek akademik camiada JHUHNVHNHQWVHO\|QHWLPDODQODUÕQGDEXGXUXPODUÕLGDUHHWPH\H\|QHOLNoDOÕúPDODU \DSÕOPD\DEDúODQPÕúWÕU*HoPLúWH \DúDQDQFDQYHPDOND\ÕSODUÕYHEXGXUXPODU LOH NDUúÕ NDUúÕ\D NDOPD LKWLPDOL RODQ KHU WRSOXP RODVÕ \HQL DIHWOHUH \|QHOLN bir H\OHPSODQÕ\DSPD]RUXQOXOX÷XKLVVHWPektedir. *QP]GH DIHWOHUH KD]ÕUOÕNOÕ ROPDN DGÕQD ³Afet 3ODQODUÕ´ PDNUR YH PLNUR G]H\OHUGH \DSÕOPD\D EDúODQPÕúWÕU %|\OHOLNOH afet VÕUDVÕQGD YH\D VRQUDVÕQGD ROXúDQ NDRV HVQDVÕQGD ELOH VHUL ELoLPGH DIHW E|OJHVLQH XODúÕODELOPHNWH YH ULVN DOWÕQGDNL LQVDQODUD \DUGÕP HWPHN RQODUÕ ROD÷DQGÕúÕ GXUXPODUÕQ HWNLOHULQGHQ NRUXPDYHL\LOHúWLUPHNNRRUGLQHOLELUELoLPGHJHUoHNOHúWLULOHELOPHNPPNQKDOH gelmektedir (Karababa, 2002: 15)$FLOGXUXPODUDPGDKDOHGHNLHWNLQOLN\DSÕODQ KD]ÕUOÕN YH DIHW SURJUDPODUÕ PGDKDOH SODQÕQÕQ JHOLúPLúOL÷L ND\QDNODUÕQ L\L NRQXPODQGÕUÕOPDVÕ YH DIHWH KD]ÕUOÕN WDWELNDWODUÕQÕQ JHUoH÷H \DNÕQ ROPDVÕ LOH VÕNÕ ELU LOLúNL LoLQGHGLU (Waugh, 1990). hONHPL]GH afetlere \|QHOLN ONH oDSÕQGD |Q KD]ÕUOÕNODU \DSÕODUDN YH VLYLO VDYXQPD HNLSOHUL ROXúWXUXODUDN JHUHNOL WHGELUOHU DOÕQPD\DoDOÕúÕOPDNWDGÕU$FLOGXUXPODUÕQROXúWXUDELOHFH÷LKDVDUODULOHLOJLOLRODUDN D] \DGD oRN WDKPLQOHU \DSÕOVD GD VRQXoOD LOJLOL WDP GR÷UX ELU WDKPLQ \UWPHN LPNDQVÕ]GÕU %XGD |QFHGHQ \DSÕODQ SODQODUÕQ ELU YH\D ELU oRN NÕVPÕQÕQ JHoHUVL] NDOPDVÕQDQHGHQROPDNWDGÕU %LUoR÷XGR÷DROD\ODUÕVRQXFXQGDROXúDQDIHWOHULQROPDVÕQÕHQJHOOH\HFHNWHNQRORML JQP]GHLQVDQR÷OXQXQ\DSDELOLUOL÷LQLQoRN|WHVLQGHEXOXQPDNWDGÕU Afetler ile. 6.

(38) LOJLOLNÕVÕWOÕELOJLOHUOHVUHoOHU\|QHWLOPH\HoDOÕúÕOPDNWDGÕUgUQH÷LQKDQJLFR÷UDIL E|OJHOHUGH GHSUHP RODFD÷Õ WDKPLQ HGLOVH GDKL JHOHFHN RODQ GHSUHPLQ úLGGHWL YH ]DPDQÕKDODWDPRODUDNEHOLUOHQHPHPHNWHGLU%DúNDELU|UQHNRODUDNELUE|OJHGH WRSUDN ND\PDVÕ \DúDQPD LKWLPDOL ELOLQVH GDKL EXQXQ ]DPDQÕ YH HWNLVL WP WHNQRORMLNLPNDQODUDUD÷PHQtam olarak belirlenememektedir. 1.1. Afet 7DQÕPÕYH$IHWLOHøOJLOL.DYUDPODU %X EDúOÕN DOWÕQGD NRQXQXQ GDKD L\L DQODúÕOPDVÕ DGÕQD oDOÕúPD VUHVLQFH JHoHFHN RODQED]ÕNDYUDPODUÕQWDQÕPODUÕQDGH÷LQLOHFHNWLU 1.1.1. Afet $IHW NHOLPHVL N|NHQ RODUDN $UDSoD ELU NHOLPH ROXS GDU ELU WDQÕPOD ³\ÕNÕP ve NÕUDQ´ NHOLPHOHUL LOH LIDGH HGLOHELOLU (TDK, 2012). %LUOHúPLú 0LOOHWOHU øQVDQL <DUGÕP gUJW¶QQ WDQÕPÕQD J|UH LVH DIHW LQVDQODU LoLQ Iiziksel, ekonomik ve VRV\DO ND\ÕSODU GR÷XUDQ QRUPDO \DúDPÕ YH LQVDQ IDDOL\HWOHULQL GXUGXUDUDN YH\D NHVLQWL\H X÷UDWDUDN WRSOXOXNODUÕ HWNLOH\HQ GR÷DO WHNQRORMLN YH\D LQVDQ \DSÕVÕ N|NHQOLROD\ODUGÕU (UN, 2010) . <ÕNÕPYHRODVÕOÕ÷DYXUJX\DSDQELUWDQÕPDJ|UHafet ³ELU\ÕNÕPDQHGHQRODELOHFHN E\NELUKDGLVHQLQROPDRODVÕOÕ÷ÕGÕU´(Plate, 2002). $IHWOH LOJLOL EDúND ELU WDQÕPD J|UH DIHWLQ ]DUDU J|UHQOHUL YH DIHWH QHGHQ RODQ boyutlar DUDVÕQGD ELU ED÷ODQWÕ NXUXOPXúWXU %X EDNÕú DoÕVÕQD J|UH GR÷DO DIHWOHU LQVDQODUÕQ VDGHFH ]DUDU J|UGNOHUL ROD\ODU GH÷LO D\QÕ ]amanda bu zararlara sebebiyet verenlerdir ve dinamiNROD\ODUGÕU (Degg & Chester, 2005). Afet NHOLPHVL JHQHOOLNOH WHKOLNH NHOLPHVL LOH NDUÕúWÕUÕOPDNWDGÕr. 1NOHHU VDQWUDO ND\QDNOÕ oHNLUGHN ÕúÕPDODUÕ KH\HODQ E|OJHVL WHKOLNH LoHUPHNWHGLU. %X WU E|OJHOHUGHEXOXQPDNyaralanmaya veya maddi bir zarara neden olmaya sebebiyet verebilir. Afet ile tehOLNHQLQ IDUNÕ GD EX QRNWDGD ROXúPDNWDGÕU $IHWOHU yaralanmaya neden olabilecek bir tehlikenin olma ihtimalini ifade eder. tehlikelere PGDKDOHHGHPH]NHQDIHWOHULoLQGXUXPIDUNOÕOÕNJ|VWHUPHNWHGLU$IHWOHUH\|QHOLN GR÷UX DGÕPODU YH VWUDWHMLOHU JHOLúWLULOLUVH ]DUDUODUÕ DVJDUL G]H\H oHNLOHELOHFHNtir *QP]GHLQVDQODUÕQNDUDUODUÕDIHWLQVRQXoODUÕQÕROXúWXUPDNWDGÕU (Mileti, 1980).. 7.

(39) $IHW. ELU. ROD\ÕQ. NHQGLVL. ROPD\ÕS. RUWD\D. oÕNDUGÕ÷Õ. VRQXo. RODUDN. GH÷HUOHQGLULOPHNWHGLU(.HSHNoL). 7RSOXPODUÕQEDúÕQDJHOHQELUROD\ÕQDIHWH G|QúPH DúDPDVÕ ùHNLO 1¶GH J|VWHULOPLúWLU %X GXUXPD J|UH DIHWLQ WRSOXPXQXQ ]HULQGHNL HWNLVL WRSOXPXQ EDúD oÕNDELOPHNDSDVLWHVLQLDúWÕ÷Õ GXUXPODUGDDIHWOHU PH\GDQDJHOPHNWHGLU'L÷HUELULIDGHLOHROD\ÕQDIHWHúL÷LQLDúPDVÕJHUHNPHNWHGLU. 7RSOXPXQDIHWOHEDúDoÕNDELOPHVHYL\HVL. $IHWLQWRSOXP]HULQGHNLHWNLVL. Afet (WNL$UDOÕ÷Õ Kazalar. Acil Durumlar. Afetler. Kaynak : MHDM, 2002 ùHNLO1 %LU2OD\ÕQ.D]DGDQ$IHWH'|QúPHVL %X úHNOH J|UH DIHWOHULQ HWNLOHULQL D]DOWDELOPHN LoLQ o VWUDWHMLGHQ EDKVHGLOHELOLU %XQODUGDQ LONL WRSOXPXQ EDúD oÕNDELOPH NDSDVLWHVLQL DUWWÕUPDNWÕU 'L÷HUL DIHW HúL÷LQL DUWWÕUPDN YH oQFV GH DIHWLQ WRSOXP ]HULQGHNL HWNLVLQL GúUPHNWLU *HOLúWLULOHFHN VWUDWHMLOHU EX EDúOÕNODU DOWÕQGD LQFHOHQGL÷LQGH GDKD az olay afet ROJXVXQDG|QúHFHNYH]DUDUJ|UHELOLUOLND]DODFDNWÕU. 1.1.2. Maruz Kalma $IHWOHUGH PDUX] NDOPD LQVDQ ND\QDNOÕ IDNW|UOHUH ED÷OÕ RODUDN ROXúPDNWDGÕU (Barredo YH GL÷, 2008) øQVDQL \DSÕODUÕQ DIHW ULVNL WDúÕ\DQ E|OJHOHUOH oDkÕúPDVÕ PDUX]NDOPD\DVHEHSROPDNWDGÕU Maruz kalma E\NO÷VUH\LPDUX]NDODQ QIXVXQ|]HOOLNOHULQLYHEHOLUVL]OLNOHULWDQÕPODU (Zahran, Brody, Peacock, Vedlitz, & Grover, 2008).. 8.

(40) Munich Re ¶ye (2005) J|UHPDUX]NDOPD³ELUND\EDQHGHQROPDLKWLPDOLWDúÕ\DQ ELU ULVN YH\D ULVNOHU WRSODPÕQÕQ GHUHFHVLQL LIDGH HGHU´ D\QÕ ]DPDQGD ³VLJRUWD SULPOHULQLQKHVDSODQPDVÕQGDNXOODQÕODQWHPHOXQVXUGXU´. (Munich-Re, 2005). Multihazard Mitigation Council of the National (QVWLWV¶nHJ|UH³ELUDIHWHPDUX] NDOÕQPDVÕ VRQXFX ND\ÕS \DúDPD ULVNL EXOXQDQ LQVDQODU PONOHU VLVWHPOHU YH IDDOL\HWOHUGLU´ (M.M.C.N.I.B.S., 2002). AIHWOHUH PDUX] NDOPD VRQXFX WRSOXPODUÕQ ]DUDU J|UHELOLUOL÷L IDUNOÕ ROPDNWDGÕU $úD÷ÕGDNLúHNLOGHGHJ|UOG÷]HUHJHOLúPLúONHOHUGHDIHWYHDFLOGXUXPVD\ÕVÕ ID]OD ROPDVÕQD UD÷PHQ DIHW VRQXFX PDUX] NDOPD RUDQODUÕ ROGXNoD GúN seyretmektedir. 'ĞůŝƔŵŝƔmůŬĞ. ǌ'ĞůŝƔŵŝƔmůŬĞ. 1.8% zŦůĂƔŦŶĂKƌƚĂůĂŵĂPůƺKƌĂŶŦ 53.0%. 15.0% DĂƌƵǌŬĂůŦŶŵĂ 11.0%. ùHNLO2 $IHWOHUH0DUX].DOPDYH2OD\6RQXFXgOm 2UDQÕQD<|QHOLN *HOLúPLú9H*HOLúPHNWH2ODQhONH.DUúÕODúWÕUPDVÕ Kaynak : Birkmann, 2006: 174 1.1.3. Risk Alwang YHGL÷HUOHULQH

(41) J|UHULVNROD\ODUÕQELOLQHQYH\DELOLQPH\HQRODVÕOÕN GD÷ÕOÕPODUÕ WDUDIÕQGDQ EHOLUOHQLU %X ROD\ODUÕQ NHQGLOHUL LVH RQODUÕQ E\NONOHUL VÕNOÕNODUÕ VUHVL YH JHoPLúL WDUDIÕQGDQ EHOLUOHQLU. (Alwang, Siegel, & Jorgensen, 2001).. 9.

(42) 'L÷HUWDUDIWDQULVNLNDUúÕODúÕODQND\ÕSODULOHLOLúNLOHQGLUPHNWHPPNQGU5isk bir ND\EDX÷UDPDLKWLPDOLGLUYHWHKOLNHKDVDUJ|UHELOLUOLNYHPDUX]NDOPDXQVXUODUÕQD GD\DQÕU %X XQVXUODUGDQ KHUKDQJL ELULVLQLQ DUWPDVÕ \D GD D]DOPDVÕ D\QÕ úHNLOGH risklerinGHDUWPDVÕ\DGDD]DOPDVÕQD\RODoDU (Crichton, 1999). RLVN³LQVDQODUYHGR÷DQÕQQHGHQRODELOHFH÷LLQVDQODUÕQ\DúDPODUÕQÕND\EHWPHOHUL \DUDODQPDODUÕ ELQDODUGD KDVDU YH\D \ÕNÕP HNRQRPLN ND\ÕSODU JLEL VRQXoODUÕQ RUWD\DoÕNPDLKWLPDOLGLU (UNDP, 2004b). 1.1.4. Tehlike *HQHO ELU LIDGH LOH WHKOLNH DFLO GXUXP YH\D DIHWH G|QúHELOHFHN SRWDQVL\HOL RODQ olay veya durum olarak nitelendirilir (Tezer, 2001) &DQ YH PDO ND\EÕ ROXúWXUDELOHFHN, sosyal ve ekonomik DoÕGDQ ]DUDUODU ROXúWXUPD SRWDQVL\HOLQH VDKLS ROXúPDVÕ oHúLWOL VHEHSOHUH ED÷OÕ ROD\ODUD WHKOLNH DGÕ YHULOLU (2 (UJQD\ 2008). $IHW7UOHUL $IHWNDYUDPÕQÕQROXúPDVÕQÕQELUoRNQHGHQLYDUGÕUAIHWOHUIL]LNVHORODUDN|QHPOi GH÷LúLNOHUH yRO Doarak ULVN \DGD WHKOLNH ROXúWXUGXNODUÕQGD DIHW YDVIÕ ND]DQÕUODU (.DVDSR÷OX (FHYLW ) $IHWOHU GR÷DO YH LQVDQ ND\QDNOÕ QHGHQOHUH ED÷OÕ olarak ROXúPDNWDGÕU $IHW WUOHULQLQ DOJÕODQPDVÕ WRSOXPODUÕQ JHOLúPLúOLN G]H\OHULQH J|UH GH÷LúLP J|VWHUPHNWHGLU (Shaw, Kobayashi, & Kobayashi, 2004). $IHWOHUL DOJÕODPD VHYL\HOHUL DUDVÕQGD WRSOXPODU DUDVÕQGD GD IDUNODU EXOXQPDNWDGÕU %X GXUXP WRSOXPODUÕQ \DúDP VWDQGDUWODUÕ YH JHOLúPLúOLNOHUL LOH LOJLOLGLU %XQGDQ GROD\Õ DIHWOHUL VÕQÕIODQGÕUPDNWD IDUNOÕOÕNODU \DúDQPDNWDGÕU. Avrupa Atlantik Afet 0GDKDOH0HUNH]L<|QHUJHVLHNLQGHDIHWWUOHUL GR÷DOYHWHNQRORMLNDIHWOHURODUDN LNL\H D\UÕOPDNWDGÕU (*ONDQ %DODPLU <DNXW ). 'L÷HU WDUDIWDQ ED]Õ kaynaklDUGDGR÷DOELUDIHWLQVRQXFXWHNQRORMLNDIHWLQROXúPDVÕQHWLFHVLQGHROXúDQ ]LQFLUOHPHDIHWWUOHULQLGH³+iEULG´DIHWWU ile oQFELUDIHWWURODUDNNDEXO HWPLúOHUGLU(Shaluf, 2007).. 10.

(43) 'R÷DO$IHWOHU %\N RUDQGD FDQ YH PDO ND\ÕSODUÕQD QHGHQ RODQ LQVDQ NRQWUROQQ GÕúÕQGD JHUoHNOHúHQ FDQ YH PDO ND\ÕSODUÕQD QHGHQ RODQ WHKOLNHOL ROD\ODU RODUDN LIDGH edilebilir (ùDKLQ 6LSDKLR÷OX ). Do÷al afetler, yo÷un nfus barÕndÕran alanlar aoÕsÕndan |nemli bir risk ROXúWXUXUODU (Peduzzi, 2000) 'R÷DO DIHWOHU oR÷XQOXNOD QHJDWLI XQVXUODU LoHUHQ LQVDQODUÕQ \DúDPÕQÕ X]XQ G|QHPOL HWNLOHUOH etkileye bilen ani olarak RUWD\D oÕNÕS |QOHQHPH\HQ ROD\ODUGÕU (2NWD\ (UJQD\ 1996).. <ƵƌĂŬůŦŬ. Orman zĂŶŐŦŶůĂƌŦ. 7ŬůŝŵƐĞů. hĕƐŦĐĂŬůŦŬůĂƌ. &ŦƌƚŦŶĂ. Toprak <ĂǇŵĂƐŦ. Sel. Hidrolojik. Toprak ƺƔŵĞƐŝ. Volkan. Jeofiziksel. Deprem. ^ĂůŐŦŶ. ,ĂƔĞƌĞ. Biolojik. Meteorokojik. ŽŒĂůĨĞƚůĞƌ. ùHNLO3 'R÷DO$IHW7UOHUL Kaynak : Guha-Sapir, Vos, Below, & Ponserre, 2012 $IHW WUOHULQH YXUJX \DSDUDN GR÷DO DIHWL DoÕklD\DQ ELU GL÷HU WDQÕP LVH 'HSUHP GHY GDOJDODU YRONDQLN SDWODPDODU WRSUDN ND\PDODUÕ WURSLNDO VLNORQODU VHO NXUDNOÕN oHYUH NLUOHQPHVL RUPDQODUÕQ \RN HGLOPHVL o|OOHúPH YE GR÷DO ROD\ODU sonXFXROXúDQDIHWOHULGR÷DODIHWOHURODUDNWDQÕPODPÕúWÕU (*ONDQYHGL÷, 2003).. 11.

(44) ùHNLO4 : 1900-$UDVÕQGD*HUoHNOHúHQ'R÷DO$IHW6D\ÕODUÕ Kaynak : Em-Dat, 2012b Em-'DW¶ÕQ \D\ÕQODGÕ÷Õ WDEORODUD J|UH - \ÕOODUÕQÕ NDSVD\DQ oDOÕúPDGD GR÷DODIHWVD\ÕVÕQÕQ\ÕOODULWLEDULLOHNDWODQDUDNoR÷DOGÕ÷ÕJ|UOPHNWHGLU. ùHNLO5 'Q\D¶GD'R÷DO$IHWOHULQ(WNLOHGL÷LøQVDQ6D\ÕVÕ Kaynak : Em-Dat, 2012c. 12.

(45) ùHNLO5 LQFHOHQGL÷LQGH\ÕOODULWLEDULLOHDIHWOHUGHQHWNLOHQHQLQVDQVD\ÕODUÕQÕQGQ\D JHQHOLQGHJLGHUHNDUWWÕ÷ÕJ|]OHPOHQPHNWHGLU%XDUWÕúÕQVHEHELQIXVDUWÕúÕQÕQ\DQÕ VÕUD LQVDQODUÕQ \DúDP DODQODUÕ LOH DIHW E|OJHOHULQLQ oDNÕúPDVÕ GD VHEHS RODUDN J|VWHrilebilir. 'R÷DO DIHWOHULQ LQVDQOÕ÷D YHUGL÷L ELU GL÷HU ]DUDU LVH HNRQRPLN ER\XWWDQ HOH DOÕQPDNWDGÕU$IHWOHULQVDQOÕ÷ÕQJHOLúWLUGL÷LIL]LNL\DSÕODUD]DUDUYHUHUHN]DUDUÕQELU EDúNDER\XWXQXROXúWXUPDNWDGÕU(Jonkman, Van Gelder, & Vrijling, 2003; Toya & Skidmore, 2007).. ùHNLO6 : 'Q\D¶GD 'R÷DO$IHWOHULQEkonomik Boyutu Kaynak : Em-Dat, 2012d 7UNL\H¶GH E\N |OoGH FDQ YH PDO ND\ÕSODUÕQD QHGHQ ROXS JQON \DúDPÕ GXUGXUDUDN HNRQRPLN ND\ÕSODUD QHGHQ RODQ WRSOXOXNODUÕ HWNLOH\HQ YH LQVDQODUÕQ EDú HGHPHGLNOHUL GR÷DO DIHWOHUOH VÕNoD NDUúÕODúÕOPDNWDGÕU 7UNL\H \HU\]Q HQ DNWLI GHSUHP NXúDNODUÕQGDQ ELUL RODQ $NGHQL] $OS ± +LPDOD\D GHSUHP NXúD÷Õ LoHULVLQGH\HUDOPDNWDGÕU ùHNLO7).. 13.

(46) ùHNLO7 : 1900- '|QHPLQGH7UNL\H¶GH0!2ODQ'HSUHPOHU Kaynak: AFAD, 2011 7UNL\H GHSUHP ROXúXPX DoÕVÕQGDQ GH]DYDQWDMOÕ ELU NRQXPD VDKLSWLU 1HUHGH\VH ONHPL]LQWDPDPÕEXULVNOHNDUúÕNDUúÕ\DGÕU($WDOÕ). Alp VÕUDGD÷ODUÕ$V\DLOH $YUXSD NÕWDODUÕQÕQ ELUELULQH J|UH J|UHFHOL KDUHNHOHULQLQ ROXúWXUGX÷X VÕNÕúWÕUÕFÕ NXYYHWOHULQ HWNLVL\OH ONHPL]GH GHSUHPOHU PH\GDQD JHOPHNWHGLU dDOÕúPDQÕQ HOH DOÕQGÕ÷Õ 6DNDU\D¶QÕQLoLQGH \HUDOGÕ÷Õ 0DUPDUD%|OJHVL¶QGH.X]H\ $QDGROX )D\ =RQX \HUDOPDNWDGÕU %XID\]RQX.X]H\2UWDYH*QH\NROODUÕLoHUPHNWHROXS \NVHN GHSUHP HWNLQOL÷LQH YH WHKOLNHVLQH QHGHQ ROPDNWDGÕUODU %|OJHGH 06 ¶GHQ VRQUD 06 RODQ DGHW GHSUHP PH\GDQD JHOGL÷L WHVSLW HGLOPLúWLU (UtkucuYHGL÷, 2011). øQVDQ.D\QDNOÕ7HNQRORMLN$IHWOHU .HQWVHOoHYUHER]XNOXNODUÕYHWHNQRORMLQLQJHWLUGL÷LULVNOHUHED÷OÕJHOLúHQDIHWOHUH WHNQRORMLN DIHWOHU GHQLOPHNWHGLU %X DIHWOHULQ ND\QD÷ÕQÕ LQVDQODUÕQ ROXúWXUGX÷X VLVWHP YH\D \DSÕODU ROXúWXUXU 1NOHHU VDQWUDO NLP\DVDO HQGVWUL\HO ND]DODU WDúÕWODULOHROXúDQND]DODUEXDIHWOHUNDWHJRULVLQGHGH÷HUOHQGLULOLU. 14.

(47) øQVDQR÷OXQXQ WHNQRORMLN RODUDN JHOLúPHVL KD\DWÕQÕ NROD\ODúWÕUÕUNHQ GL÷HU \DQGDQ ED]Õ GH]DYDQWDMODUÕ GD EHUDEHULQGH JHWLUPHNWHGLU øQVDQR÷OXQXQ JHOLúWLUGL÷L EX WHNQRORML NRQWURO GÕúÕQD oÕNDUPDVÕ LOH EHUDEHU NHQGLQL WHKGLW ELU XQVXU RODUDN NDUúÕQD oÕNDELOPHNWHGLU \ÕOÕQGD 8NUD\QD¶QÕQ dHUQRELO NHQWLQGHQ \DúDQDQ QNOHHU DIHW EXQD HQ J]HO |UQHNOHUGHQGLU (QHUML UHWLPLQGH KLoELU ND\QDN Lle NÕ\DVODQPD\DFDN GHUHFHGH PDOL\HWL GúN YH YHULPOL RODQ QNOHHU HQHUML ELU KDWDGDQ GROD\Õ LQVDQ ND\QDNOÕ ELU IDFLD\D QHGHQ RODUDN PLO\RQODUFD LQVDQÕ HWNLOHPLúWLU (Erden, 1992) *HOLúWLULOHQ LOHUL WHNQRORMLOHU KHU QH NDGDU KD\DWÕPÕ]Õ NROD\ODúWÕUÕ\RUVD GD GL÷HU \DQGDQ EX JHOLúPHOHU DIHWOHUH GH VHEHS ROPDNWDGÕUlar (Orom ve GL÷, 2012). 'L÷HU WDUDIWDQ PH\GDQD JHOHQ WP DIHWOHULQ N|NHQLQGH LQVDQODUÕQ ELOLQoOL YH\D ELOLQoVL] RODUDN DIHWOHUH QHGHQ ROGX÷X WP DIHWOHULQ VHEHSOHULQLQ LQVDQ ND\QDNOÕ oÕNWÕ÷ÕGDLOHULVUOPHNWHGLU(2(UJQD\)6DYDúODUYHRQODUÕQ\RODoWÕ÷Õ J|oOHU LOH NÕWOÕN ROD\ODUÕ XoDN ND]DODUÕ ELUH\VHO VDOGÕUÕODU E\N oDSWDNL DUDo ND]DODUÕ WHU|UL]P \DQJÕQODU NLP\DVDO ND]DODU \DSÕ \ÕNÕPODUÕ VRQXFX ROXúDQ GXUXPODUEXNDSVDPGDGH÷HUOHQGLULOPHNWHGLU($<Õlmaz, 2003). Son 20-30 \ÕOOÕN VUH LoHULVLQGH XOXVODUDUDVÕ OLWHUDWUGH ³Na-THFK´ RODUDN LVLPOHQGLULOHQ GR÷DO DIHWOHULQ WHWLNOHGL÷L WHNQRORMLN DIHWOHULQ VD\ÕVÕQGD DUWÕú J|]OHQPHNWHGLU(Cruz, 2004). 1.3. $IHW<|QHWLPL Afet \|QHWLPLNDYUDPÕPDUX]NDOÕQDQYH\DNDOPDLKWLPDOLRODQKHUWUOWHKOLNH\H KD]ÕUODQPDNDUúÕNDUúÕ\DNDOÕQDFDNPDGGLYHPDQHYL]DUDUODUÕD]DOWPD\D\|QHOLN NDUúÕODúÕODQ GXUXPOD PGDKDOH HWPH DPDFÕQÕ LoHULU %XQODUÕQ \DQÕQGD eldeki kaynaklar LOH DIHWH \|QHOLN oDOÕúPDODUÕ planlayan VRQUDVÕQGD SODQODUÕ WHNUDU L\LOHúWLUHQG|QJ\HVDKLSVUHoOHULLoHUPHNWHGLU (Farazmand, 2001). 7RSOXPODUÕQ NDUúÕ NDUúÕ\D NDOGÕ÷Õ WHKOLNH\L |QOH\HPHPHVL ROD\ODUÕ DNÕúÕQD EÕUDNPDVÕQÕJHUHNWLUPH]$IHWOHULQROXúWXUGX÷XROXPVX]HWNL\LD]DOWPDNDGÕQDEX VUHFLQ\|QHWLOPHVL]RUXQOXOX÷XRUWD\DoÕNPÕúWÕU%XGXUXPDIHWOHULQ\|QHWLOPHVL VUHFLQLYHEXDlanda \DSÕODQoDOÕúPDODUÕRUWD\D oÕNDUPÕúWÕU7DULKVHO YH ELOLPVHO YHULOHUÕúÕ÷ÕQGDDIHWOHULQROXúDELOLUOL÷L zararlarÕQanaliz edilmesi ile EXE|OJHOHUGH. 15.