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YIL 2010&ø/7;;,;, SAYI II, S. 197-226
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Anahtar Kelimeler: Kriz, talep, market ürünleri, teknoloji ürünleri, H÷LWLP
KDUFDPDODUÕ\DúDPVWDQGDUGÕ
THE EFFECT OF THE CRISIS ON CONSUMER SPENDING:
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Abstract
This paper examines the effects of the Global Economic Crisis on consumer behaviors in Giresun. In order to determine how consumers adjust their consumption as a response to the crisis, data of horizontal-section obtained from questionnaires which is applied 384 consumer in center of Giresun was analysed with SPSS programme. According to our test results, consumers has changed their comsumption composition during the crisis. Likewise, while some kind of expenditures remains unchanged, the others have increased or decreased. In accordance with the literature, we found that cheapest brand preference has been increased. Moreover, ki-square test results point out that there is a meaningful relationship between level of monthly income and pereference of cheapest brands,
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clothing and education expenditures. Resuts also show that the life qualitiy has decreased in the crisis period.
Key words: crisis, demand, market products, technology products,
education expenditures, living standard
*LULú
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1
Marek Dabrowski, “The Global Financial Crisis: Lessons For European Integration”,
Economic Systems ,Volume 34, Issue 1, March 2010, s.39. .
7NHWLFLOHU SL\DVD DNW|UOHUL DUDVÕQGD HQ |QHPOL SR]LV\RQGD RODQ NHVLPGLU 'ROD\ÕVÕ LOH NUL] G|QHPOHULQGH WNHWLFLOHULQ GDYUDQÕúODUÕQÕ QDVÕO GH÷LúWLUGL÷LQLQ J|]OHPOHQPHVLKHPGL÷HUSL\DVDDNW|UOHULKHPGHSROLWLND\DSÕFÕODUDoÕVÕQGan büyük |QHP DU] HWPHNWHGLU %X QHGHQOH NUL] G|QHPOHULQGH GR÷UX VWUDWHML JHOLúWLUPHN DoÕVÕQGDQ LON Lú WNHWLFL\H RGDNODQPDN YH RQXQ GDYUDQÕúODUÕQÕQ QDVÕO GH÷LúWL÷LQL EHOLUOHPHN ROPDOÕGÕU 7NHWLFLOHULQ UHDNVL\RQXQX DQODPDN EHOLUOL NDWHJRULOHUGHNL harcamaODUD LOLúNLQ GH÷LúLNOLNOHUL WDKPLQ HWPH\H \DUGÕP HGHFHNWLU 0H\GDQD JHOHQ GH÷LúLNOLNOHUL UQ ED]ÕQGD D\UÕ D\UÕ J|]OHPOHPHN GH÷LúHQ WNHWLFL GDYUDQÕúODUÕQD X\JXQVWUDWHMLOHULJHOLúWLUPHGHROGXNoD|QHPOLELUUROR\QD\DFDNWÕU
2 Pushan Dutt- Paddy Padmanabhan, “When to Hit the Panic Button? Impact of Currency
Crisis on Consumer Behaviors”, Insead Working Paper, No. 2009/02/EPS/MKT, January 2009, s.2.
3 Khaled Mohammad Abu Aliqah- Ahmad Nahar Al-rfou, “The Impact of Global Financial
Crisis on Consumer Behavior in Jordan”, European Journal of Social Sciences ,Volume 12, Number 4 , 2010, s.618.
2. Literatür
Tüketicilerin NUL]ER\XQFD QDVÕOGDYUDQGÕ÷Õ|QHPOLDQFDN \HWHUOLGHUHFHGH DUDúWÕUÕOPDPÕúELUNRQXGXU.UL]LQ*'3YH*'3E\PHKÕ]ÕJLELWRSODPHNRQRPLN GH÷LúNHQOHUH HWNLVL ]HULQH JHQLú ELU OLWHUDWU ROPDVÕQD NDUúÕQ WNHWLP SHUDNHQGH VDWÕúJLELJ|VWHUJHOHU]HULQHRODQHWNLVLQLDUDúWÕUDQoRND]oDOÕúPDEXOXQPDNWDGÕU
Khaled Mohammad Abu Aliqah, Ahmad Nahar Al-rfou (2010), Global )LQDQVDO .UL]LQ hUGQ¶GH WNHWLFL GDYUDQÕúODUÕ ]HULQGHNL HWNLVLQL DUDúWÕUPÕúODUGÕU $UDúWÕUPDQÕQ VRQXoODUÕQD J|UH Ürdün’de tüketiciler finansal krizin ve onun PH\GDQD JHWLUGL÷L HWNLOHULQ ELOLQFLQGHGLUOHU YH GDYUDQÕúODUÕQÕ D\DUOD\DUDN NUL]H DGDSWHROPXúODUGÕU%XQDJ|UHNUL]G|QHPLQGHSDKDOÕROPD\DQLNDPHPDOODUÕWHUFLK HGLOPHNWH YH ONV PDOODUGDQ ]RUXQOX PDOODUÕ VDWÕQ DOPD\D GR÷UX ELU JHoLú \DúDQPDNWDGÕU(NRODUDNE\NPLNWDUODU\HULQHGDKDNoNPLNWDUODUGDPDOVDWÕQ DOÕQPDNWDGÕU $QFDN NUL] VÕUDVÕQGD WNHWLPGHQ WDVDUUXID GR÷UX G|QúP JHUoHNOHúPHPLúWLU %XQXQ QHGHQL KDONÕQ JHOLU G]H\LQLQ oRN GúN ROPDVÕ YH EX JHOLULQE\NELUNÕVPÕQÕQWNHWLPHKDUFDQPDVÕGÕU
Pushan Dutt, Paddy Padmanabhan (2009), finansal bir krizin tüketim ]HULQGHNLHWNLVLQHRGDNODQPÕúWÕUdDOÕúPDNUL]LQELUNDo\ÕOD\D\ÕODQHWNLVLnin, hem NLúL EDúÕQD WNHWLP KDUFDPDVÕQÕ KHP GH NLúL EDúÕQD SHUDNHQGH VDWÕúODUÕ D]DOWWÕ÷ÕQÕ RUWD\DNR\PXúWXU%XQXQODEHUDEHU|]HOOLNOHGHNUL]ER\XQFDWNHWLPGHNLGúúQ JHOLUGHNLGúúWHQoRNGDKDID]ODROGX÷XJHOLúPHNWHRODQONHOHUGH]DPDQODUDUDVÕ WNHWLP G]OHúWLUPHVLQH4 LOLúNLQ RODUDN oRN D] NDQÕW EXOXQPXúWXU $QFDN WNHWLP G]OHúWLUPHNDOÕSODUÕQGDJHOLúPLúYHJHOLúPHNWHRODQONHOHUDUDVÕQGDGLNNDWHGH÷HU IDUNOÕOÕNODUJ|]HoDUSPDNWDGÕU'L÷HU\DQGDQNUL]G|QHPLQGHWNHWLFLGDYUDQÕúÕQÕQ içinGH IDUNOÕ UQ YH KL]PHW NDWHJRULOHUL EXOXQDQ ]HQJLQ WNHWLP NDOÕSODUÕ\OD NDUDNWHUL]HHGLOGL÷LEHOLUOHQPLúWLU5
David j. Mckenzie (2003) ise, Meksika krizinin tüketim üzerindeki etkisini EHOLUOLDOWJUXSODULWLEDUL\OHLQFHOHPLúWLU $LOHUHLVLQLQH÷LWLPGzeyi ve ailenin ikamet HWWL÷L \HULQ NÕUVDO DODQGD \D GD úHKLUGH ROPDVÕ NUL]LQ EHOLUOL ELU WNHWLFL ]HULQGH PH\GDQDJHWLUHFH÷LHWNL\LEHOLUOH\HQDQDXQVXUODURODUDNWHVSLWHGLOPLúWLU%XQDJ|UH \NVHNH÷LWLPG]H\LQHVDKLSRODQYHNHQWWH\HUOHúLNRODQWketiciler, gelirlerinde en E\NGúú\DúD\DQNHVLPLWHPVLOHWPHNWHGLU'L÷HU\DQGDQNUL]VÕUDVÕQGDHPHN DU]ÕQGD ELU DUWÕú JHUoHNOHúPHPLúWLU %XQGD URO R\QD\DQ WHPHO IDNW|UQ LVH HPHN SL\DVDVÕQGDNL IÕUVDWODUÕQ D]DOPDVÕ E|\OHOLNOH GH RNXOD JLWPHQLQ IÕUVDt maliyetinin D]DOPDVÕ ROGX÷X LIDGH HGLOPHNWHGLU $\UÕFD NUL] VÕUDVÕQGD WNHWLPLQ NRPSR]LV\RQX GD GH÷LúLPH X÷UDPÕúWÕU 7NHWLFLOHU EWoHQLQ GDKD E\N ELU NÕVPÕQÕ JÕGD KDUFDPDODUÕQDWDKVLVHGHELOPHNLoLQED]ÕKDUFDPDODUÕD]DOWPÕúODUGÕU.
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96
David J. Mckenzie, “How do Households Cope with Aggregate Shocks? Evidence from the Mexican Peso Crisis”, World Development, Vol. 31, No. 7, July 2003, s.1197.
7 Swee Hoon Ang, “Crisis Marketing: a Comparison Across Economic Scenarios”, International Business Review, Volume 10, Issue 3, June 2001, s. 280-281.
8
Asep Suryahadi, Sudarno Sumarto ,“Update on The Impact of The Indonesian Crisis On Consumption Expenditures and Poverty Incidence: Results From the December 1998 Round of 100 Village Survey, Social Monitoring and Early Response Unit (SEMERU), August (1999), s.1-13.
9 Abu Aliqah - Al-rfou, a.g.m., s.619.
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*HOHQHNVHORODUDNHNRQRPLNWHRULGHWHUFLKOHULQVDELWYHYHULROGX÷XNDEXO edilir. Ekonomistlerin J|UHYL EHOLUOL ELU WHUFLK VHWLQLQ VRQXoODUÕQÕ NHúIHWPHNWLU 7HUFLK ROXúXPX YH GH÷LúLPL SVLNRORMLN DUDúWÕUPDODUÕQ ELU NRQXVX RODUDN GúQOPHNWHGLU $QFDN JLGHUHN GDKD ID]OD VD\ÕGD HNRQRPLVW WHUFLK GH÷LúLPLQL HNRQRPL DODQÕQGDNL oDOÕúPDODUÕQD GDKLO HWPHNWHGLrler10. Genel ekonomik analiz ve HNRQRPLN SVLNRORMLGH WNHWLP YH EXQXQOD LOLúNLOL GDYUDQÕúODU HQ |QHPOL SR]LV\RQX LúJDO HWPHNWHGLU %XQXQ QHGHQL WNHWLPLQ HNRQRPLN LVWLNUDU LoLQ HQ |QHPOL IDNW|U RODUDN WDQÕPODQPDVÕQGD \DWPDNWDGÕU11
Risk, tüketici karaU YHUPH VUHFLQGH WNHWLFL GDYUDQÕúÕQÕ HWNLOH\HQ DQDKWDU ELU ELOHúHQGLU $OJÕODQDQ ULVN WNHWLFLOHULQ \DSDFDNODUÕ VDWÕQ DOPD GDYUDQÕúÕQÕQ VRQXoODUÕQÕ J|UHPHGLNOHUL ]DPDQ NDUúÕODúWÕNODUÕ EHOLUVL]OLNWLU
. Tüketicileri yönlendirme gücü, tüketicilerin NDUDNWHULJHUHNVLQPHOHULYHVDWÕQDOPDJoOHULKDNNÕQGDVDKLSROXQDQELOJL\OHGR÷UX RUDQWÕOÕGÕU %X QHGHQOH KHUKDQJL ELU LVWLNUDUVÕ]OÕN GXUXPXQGD WNHWLFL WHUFLKOHULQLQ QDVÕOHWNLOHGL÷LQLQELOLQPHVLJHUHNPHNWHGLU
12. Tüketicilerin karar ROXúWXUPD VUHFL YH GDYUDQÕúODUÕ DOJÕODQDQ ULVN DoÕVÕQGDQ LQFHOHQLU $OJÕODQDQ ULVN NDYUDPÕQÕQ LNL ER\XWX YDUGÕU EHOLUVL]OLN YH EHOLUVL]OL÷LQ RUWD\D oÕNDUGÕ÷Õ VRQXoODU %XNDYUDPHVDVRODUDNSRWDQVL\HOQHJDWLIVRQXoODU]HULQHRGDNODQDQDUDúWÕUPDODUGD NXOODQÕOÕU $QFDN HNRQRPL ELOLPL DOJÕODQDQ ULVN NDYUDPÕQÕQ VDGHFH LON ER\XWXQX \DQLEHOLUVL]OLNELOHúHQLQLNDSVDU13
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.
14
Gelecekle ilgili korku ve güvensizlik ne kadar belirgin ise, tüketiciler, KDUFDPDODUÕQÕ GDKD L\L \|QHWPHN LoLQ R NDGDU DUD\Õú LoHULVLQGH ROXUODU (Q X\JXQ VDWÕQ DOPD NDUDUÕ YH EX NDUDUÕQ VRQXoODUÕ Lle ilgili belirsizlik (risk) tüketiciler WDUDIÕQGDQ WRSODQDQ WRSODP ELOJL PLNWDUÕQÕ HWNLOH\HQ |QHPOL ELU GH÷LúNHQGLU
.
15
10 Marco A. Janssen- Wander Jager, “Fashions, Habits and Changing Preferences: Simulation
of Psyhological Factors Affecting Market Dynamics”, Journal of Economic Psychology, Volume 22, Issue 6, December 2001, s.748.
11Roland-L´evy, C., “Representation of the Financial Crisis, Effect on Social Representations
of Savings and Credit”, Journal of Socio-Economics , 2010,
doi:10.1016/j.socec.2010.02.014, s.2.
12 Fan Lan, “7KH øQIOXHQFH RI 3HUFHLYHG 5LVN RQ &XVWRPHU %HKDYLRXU LQ 3XUFKDVLQJ
+LJK-Price Products Online”, UK, The University of Sheffield, 2007, s.13, (The thesis of degree of Master ).
13-RRVW0(3HQQLQJVYHGL÷Hrleri, “A Note on Modeling Consumer Reactions to a Crisis:The
Case of The Mad Cow Disease”, International Journal of Research in Marketing, Volume 19, Issue 1, March 2002, s.92.
14 Lan, a.g.t., s.22 15 Lan, a.g.t., s.14.
. Bu QHGHQOHPDOÕQJHUoHNNDOLWHVLLOHRQXVDWÕQDOPDNLoLQNDWODQDFDNODUÕPDOL\HWHNDUúÕ
daha özenli hale gelen tüketiciler, daha spesifiN ELOJLOHUL DUDúWÕUPDN LoLQ DOÕúYHULúWH daha fazla zaman harcarlar.
4.Tüketim Teorileri
%X E|OPGH øNLQFL 'Q\D 6DYDúÕ VRQUDVÕQGD WNHWLP NRQXVXQGD LOHUL VUOHQJ|UúOHULQFHOHQHFHNWLU%XED÷ODPGD|QFHPXWODNJHOLUKLSRWH]LQLVSLJHOLU hipotezi sonra ömür boyu gelir hipotezi ve sürekli gelir hipotezi analizleri ele DOÕQDFDNWÕU
7NHWLPL GDKD NDSVDPOÕ LQFHOHPHPL] LoLQ LNL |QHPOL QHGHQ YDUGÕU %LULQFLVL WNHWLP KDUFDPDODUÕ WRSODP WDOHELQ \]GH DWPÕúÕQGDQ ID]ODVÕQÕ ROXúWXUPDNWDGÕU 7RSODP WDOHEL HWNLOH\HQ güçleri anlayabilmek için tüketimi neyin \|QOHQGLUGL÷LQL ELOPHPL] JHUHNLU øNLQFLVL WNHWLOPH\HQ JHOLUWDVDUUXI HGLOLU 'L÷HU ONHOHULQ GQ\DGDNL HQ JHOLúPLú VDQD\LOHúPLú ONH VD\ÕODQ %LUOHúLN 'HYOHWOHUH \HWLúLS JHoPHOHULQLQ DQD QHGHQL RODUDN $%'¶QLQ GúN WDVDUUXI RUDQÕ gösterilmektedir16
.H\QHV *HQHO 7HRUL¶GH WNHWLP NRQXVXQGD o YDUVD\ÕP \DSPÕúWÕU %XQODUGDQ ELULQFLVL IDL] KDGGLQLQ NODVLN LNWLVDWoÕODUÕQ LOHUL VUGNOHULQLQ WHUVLQH tüketim üzerinde belirleyici bir rolünün oOPDGÕ÷Õ-WNHWLPLQ JHOLU G]H\LQH ED÷OÕ RODUDNGH÷LúWL÷LKXVXVXGXU
.
4.1. Mutlak Gelir Hipotezi
17
QROX GHQNOHPGH WNHWLPLQ JHOLU G]H\LQH ED÷OÕ RODUDN GH÷LúPHVL W dönemindeki tüketimin t G|QHPLQGHNL JHOLUH ED÷OÕ RODUDN GH÷LúPHVL DQODPÕQGDGÕU Bu yönüyle Keynesyen tüketim fonksiyonu mutlak gelir hipotezi diye de nitelendirilir
.
.H\QHV¶LQ JHQHO WHRULGH WNHWLP NRQXVXQGD EHQLPVHGL÷L LNLQFL YDUVD\ÕP KDUFDQDELOLU NLúLVHO JHOLU DUWÕQFD WNHWLPLQGH DUWWÕ÷Õ DQFDN WNHWLPGHNL DUWÕúÕQ JHOLUGHNL DUWÕúWDQ GDKD NoN ROGX÷X NÕVDFD KDUFDQDELOLU NLúLVHO JHOLU DUWÕQFD WNHWLPLQ JHOLUGHQ GDKD D] DUWWÕ÷Õ KXVXVXGXU .H\QHV WHPHO SVLNRORMLN NDQXQ GL\H QLWHOHQGLUGL÷LEXKXVXVXKDUFDQDELOLUJHOLUGHNLELUOLUDOÕNGH÷LúPHQLQWNHWLPGHNDo OLUDOÕNELUGH÷LúPH\H\RODoWÕ÷ÕQÕLIDGHHGHQPDUMLQDOWNHWLPH÷LOLPLQLQ F ǻ&ǻ< < '3, VÕIÕUGDQE\NIDNDWELUGHQNoNROGX÷XQXNDEXOHGHUHNIRUPHOOHúWLUPLúWLU C = C(Y), 0<c<1 (1) 18
16 Rudiger Dornbusch-Stanley Fischer, MakroekonomiøVWDQEXO$NDGHPL V 17 Erdal Ünsal,Makroiktisat%DVNÕ$QNDUD.DONDQ0DWEDDFÕOÕN V 18 Ünsal, agk,s.417
.
.H\QHV¶LQ *HQHO 7HRUL¶GH WNHWLP NRQXVXQGD EHQLPVHGL÷L oQF YH VRQ YDUVD\ÕP KDUFDQDELOLU JHOLU DUWÕQFD JHOLULQ WNHWLP DPDFÕ\OD NXOODQÕODQ NÕVPÕQÕQ D]DODFD÷Õ KXVXVXGXU %X YDUVD\ÕP .H\QHV¶LQ *HQHO 7HRUL¶GH JHOLULQ QH NDGDUÕQÕQ WNHWLPH WDKVLV HGLOGL÷LQL \DQVÕWDQ &< RUDQÕQD RUWDODPD WNHWLP H÷LOLPL GHGL÷L KHVDEDNDWÕODUDNLIDGHHGLOLUVH.H\QHV¶HJ|UHJHOLUDUWWÕNoDRUWDODPDWNHWLPH÷LOLPL D]DOÕU <ĹĺDSFĻ
%XDoÕNODPDODUÕúÕ÷ÕQGDPXWODNJHOLUKLSRWH]LDúD÷ÕGDNLJLELLIDGHHGLOHELOLU C = C0 + cY C0>0, 0<c<1, (2)
+c (3)
QROXGHQNOHPLQKHULNLWDUDIÕQÕQ<WHULPLQHE|OQPHVLsuretiyle elde edilen QROXGHQNOHPH J|UHKDUFDQDELOLUNLúLVHO JHOLUDUWWÕNoD &0< YHGROD\ÕVÕ\ODGD [(C0< F@ WHULPLQLQ GH÷HUL-RUWDODPD WNHWLP H÷LOLPL D]DOÕU +DUFDQDELOLU JHOLU DUWWÕNoD WNHWLFLOHU JHOLULQ GDKD D] ELU NÕVPÕQÕ WNHWLP DPDFÕ\OD NXOODQÕUODU $\UÕFD (3) no.lu denkleme göre apc > c dir 19
a) 0DUMLQDOWNHWLPH÷LOLPLVÕIÕUGDQE\NYHELUGHQNoNELUGH÷HU ROXS NXOODQÕODELOLU JHOLU GH÷LúPHOHUL NDUúÕVÕQGD VDELWWLU 0DUMLQDO WNHWLP H÷LOLPL RUWDODPDWNHWLPH÷LOLPLQGHQNoNWU
.
7NHWLP%XOPDFDVÕ
0XWODN JHOLU KLSRWH]LQLQ PDUMLQDO WNHWLP H÷LOLPL LOH RUWDODPDWNHWLP H÷LOLPL KDNNÕQGDED]ÕWHVSLWOHULEXOXQPDNWDGÕU%XQDJ|UH
b) 2UWDODPD WNHWLP H÷LOLPL NXOODQÕODELOLU JHOLU DUWWÕNoD D]DOÕU 2UWDODPDWNHWLPH÷LOLPLPDUMLQDOWNHWLPH÷LOLPLQGHQE\NWU20
8\JXODPDGDWNHWLPKDUFDPDODUÕQÕEHOLUOHQPHVLQGH0XWODN*HOLU+LSRWH]LQLQ JHoHUOLOL÷LQL WHVW HGHQ oHúLWOL oDOÕúPDODU \DSÕOPÕúWÕU $PHULNDOÕ LNWLVDWoÕ 6LPRQ .X]QHWV¶LQ \ÕOÕQGD WDPDPODGÕ÷Õ YH $PHULNDQ HNRQRPLVLQLQ -1933 dönemini kapsayan aUDúWÕUPDVÕQGDQLOJLQoVRQXoODUoÕNPÕúWÕU
.
a) .ÕVD G|QHPGH NXOODQÕODELOLU JHOLU DUWWÕ÷ÕQGD RUWDODPD WNHWLP H÷LOLPLQLQGH÷HULGúPHNWHGLU
b) %XQD NDUúÕOÕN X]XQ G|QHPGH NXOODQÕODELOLU JHOLU DUWWÕ÷ÕQGD RUWDODPD WNHWLP H÷LOLPLQLQ GH÷HUL GúPHPHNWH DNVLQH VDELW Nalmakta ve marjinal WNHWLPH÷LOLPLQHHúLWROPDNWDGÕU
c) %XUDGDQ úX VRQXFD XODúÕOPDNWDGÕU 7NHWLP IRQNVL\RQXQX NÕVD G|QHP WNHWLP IRQNVL\RQX YH X]XQ G|QHP WNHWLP IRQNVL\RQX úHNOLQGH LNL\H D\ÕUDUDN LQFHOHPHN JHUHNLU .ÕVD G|QHP WNHWLP IRQNVL\RQXQD J|UH NXOODQÕODELOLU JHOLU DUWWÕNoD RUWDODPD WNHWLP H÷LOLPL D]DOPDNWD ROXS RUWDODPD WNHWLP H÷LOLPL PDUMLQDO WNHWLP H÷LOLPLQGHQ E\N GH÷HU DOPDNWDGÕU %XQD NDUúÕOÕN X]XQ G|QHP WUHWLPIRQNVL\RQXQDJ|UHNXOODQÕODELOLUJHOLUDUWWÕNoDRUWDODPDWNHWLPH÷LOLPLVDEit NDOPDNWD YH RUWDODPD WNHWLP H÷LOLPL LOH PDUMLQDO WNHWLP H÷LOLPL ELUELULQH HúLW ROPDNWDGÕU
d) 6LPRQ.X]QHWV¶LQDUDúWÕUPDVÕQDJ|UHX]XQG|QHPGHNXOODQÕODELOLU JHOLU DUWDUNHQ RUWDODPD WNHWLP H÷LOLPLQLQ GúPHPHVLQH VDELW NDOPDVÕQD WNHWLP EXOPDFDVÕGHQPHNWHGLU7NHWLPEXOPDFDVÕ.H\QHV¶LQPXWODNJHOLUKLSRWH]LQLQHQ |QHPOL EXOJXODUÕQGDQ ELULQLQ JHoHUVL] ROGX÷XQX RUWD\D NR\PXú YH PXWODN JHOLU
19 Ünsal, agk, s.418
KLSRWH]LQLQ J|]GHQ GúPHVLQH \RO DoPÕúWÕU 7NHWLP EXOPDFDVÕQÕQ PXWODN JHOLU KLSRWH]LQL ]D\ÕIODWPDVÕ WNHWLP KDUFDPDODUÕQÕ EHOLUOH\HQ IDNW|UOHU ]HULQGH EDúND oDOÕúPDODUÕQRUWD\DoÕNPDVÕQÕWHúYLNHWPLúWLU21
4.2. Nispi Gelir Hipotezi
.
1LVSL*HOLU+LSRWH]L'XVHQEHUU\WDUDIÕQGDQJHOLúWLULOPLúWLU'XVVHQEHUU\LON RODUDNNLúLOHULQWNHWLPGDYUDQÕúODUÕQÕQELUELULQHED÷OÕROGX÷XQXYHLNLQFLRODUDNGD WNHWLP LOLúNLOHULQLQ WHUVLQH G|QGUOHPH] ROGX÷XQX RUWD\D NR\PDNWDGÕU øNLQFL YDUVD\ÕP JHOLUGHNL ELU D]DOPD VRQXFX WNHWLP KDUFDPDODUÕQGDNL GH÷LúPHQLQ JHOLUGHNLDUWÕúÕQVRQXFXWNHWLPKDUFDPDODUÕQGDNLGH÷LúPHLOHD\QÕROPDGÕ÷ÕQÕRUWD\D NR\PDNWDGÕU2\VD.H\QHVJLOWNHWLPIRQNVL\RQXWHUVLQHG|QHELOLUELUIRQNVL\RQGXU dQN WNHWLP JHOLUGHNL DUWÕú \D GD D]DOÕúODUOD HúLW PLNWDUGD GH÷LúPHNWHGLU %X KLSRWH] LNL úH\L NDSVDPDNWDGÕU %LULQFLVL WDVDUUXI HGLOHQ JHOLU RUDQÕ EHOOL ELU gelir GD÷ÕOÕPÕQGDKDQHKDONÕQÕQQLVSLGXUXPX\OD\NVHOLU2UWDODPDQÕQVWQGHJHOLUHOGH HGHQELUNLPVHGúN&<RUDQÕQDVDKLSRODFDNWÕUdQNLoLQGH\DúDGÕ÷ÕWRSOXPXQ WNHWLPVWDQGDUGÕQÕPXKDID]DHGHELOPHVLLoLQJHOLUOHULQLQNoNELUNÕVPÕQÕWNHWLPH a\ÕUPDVÕ \HWHUOLGLU gWH \DQGDQ RUWDODPDQÕQ DOWÕQGD JHOLUH VDKLS ELU NLPVH \NVHN &<RUDQÕQD\|QHOHFHNWLUdQNNLúLLoLQGH\DúDGÕ÷ÕWRSOXPXQWNHWLPVWDQGDUGÕQD D\DNX\GXUPD\DoDEDJ|VWHUHFHNWLUøNLQFLVL]DPDQLoLQGHELUNLPVHD\QÕQLVSLJHOLU seviyesLQGHNDOÕUVD EWQJHOLUOHUX]XQG|QHPWUHQGL\OHELUOLNWH\NVHOLU NLúLNHQGL PXWODNJHOLUL\NVHOLUNHQJHOLULQLQD\QÕ\]GHVLQLWNHWPH\HGHYDPHGHFHNWLU%WQ NLúLOHU D\QÕ QLVSL JHOLU G]H\LQGH NDOGÕNODUÕQGDQ NLúLQLQ X]XQ G|QHP JHOLULQLQ büyümesi bunD HúLW ELU \]GH WNHWLPLQ E\PHVL LOH VRQXoODQDFDNWÕU +DWWD ED]Õ NLPVHOHULQ QLVSL JHOLU G]H\OHUL ]DPDQ LoLQGH GH÷LúVH ELOH EXGH÷LúLNOLNOHU WRSODP RODUDN GHQJHOHQPH\H \|QHOHFHNWLU %|\OHFH X]XQ G|QHPGH &< RUDQÕ GH÷LúPHGHQ NDODFDNWÕU %|\OHFH QLVSL JHOLU KLSRWH]L NÕVD G|QHP LVWDWLVWLNVHO YHULOHUL\OH X]XQ G|QHPLVWDWLVWLNVHOYHULOHULDUDVÕQGDNLSDUDGRNVXDoÕNODPDNWDGÕU22
1LVSL JHOLU KLSRWH]LQGHNL LNLQFL DQDKWDU YDUVD\ÕP ]DPDQ LoLQGH WNHWLPLQ tersine çevrilememesini –tüketimde konjonktür devresi içindHNL NÕVD YDGHOL GH÷LúLNOLNOHUL- DoÕNODPDNWDGÕU +DQHKDONÕQÕQ DOÕúNDQOÕNODUÕ YH EHNOHQWLOHUL GDKD |QFHNLHQL\LJHOLU\ÕOODUÕQDGD\DQDUDNúHNLOOHQLU%XQHGHQOHJHOLUOHULGúW÷]DPDQ NLúLOHUWNHWLPOHULQLNÕVPHQYHLVWHPH\HUHND]DOWÕUODU'L÷HUELUúHNLOGe ifade etmek JHUHNLUVH KDUFDQDELOLU JHOLUGHNL GúPH &< RUDQÕQÕ \NVHOWHFHNWLU dQN NLúLOHU NHQGL WNHWLP PRGHOOHULQL NÕVPHQ |QFHNL \NVHN JHOLU VHYL\HOHULQH GD\DQGÕUPD\D devam edeceklerdir
.
23
a. ,UYLQJ )LVKHU WDUDIÕQGDQ \ÕOÕQGD JHOLúWLULOHQ ³=DPDQODUDUDVÕ Tüketim Seçimi” ni,
.
ÖmürBoyu Gelir Hipotezi;
\ÕOÕQGD )UDQFR 0RGLJOLDQL Albert Ando ve Richard Brumberg WDUDIÕQGDQJHOLúWLULOHQgPU%R\X*HOLU+LSRWH]LQHJ|UHELUH\OHUWNHWLPYHWDVDUUXI NDUDUODUÕQÕYHULUNHQ
21
Bocutolu, agk, s.110
22 øONHU3DUDVÕ]Makro Ekonomi, Bursa, Ezgi Kitabevi, 1998,s.84 23 3DUDVÕ]agk,s.85
b. Ömürleri boyunca elde etmeyi XPGXNODUÕNXOODQÕODELOLUJHOLUOHULQLQ WRSODPÕQÕ
GLNNDWHDOÕUODU24
gPU ER\X JHOLU KLSRWH]LQH J|UH WNHWLP YH WDVDUUXI NDUDUÕ WNHWLFLQLQ VDGHFH EXJQN NXOODQÕODELOLU JHOLULQH J|UH YHUHELOHFH÷L NÕVD G|QHPOL ELU NDUDU GH÷LOGLU 7NHWLFLOHU WNHWLP YH WDVDUUXI NDUDUÕ YHULUNHQ ELU EDúND LIDGH\H NXOODQÕODELOLU JHOLUOHULQLQ QH NDGDUÕQÕ WNHWHFHNOHUL YH QH NDGDUÕQÕ WDVDUUXI HGHFHNOHULQL EHOLUOHUNHQ \DúDPD\Õ XPGXNODUÕ |PUOHUL ER\XQFD HOGH HWPH\L EHNOHGLNOHUL EWQ NXOODQÕODELOLU JHOLUOHULQL EWQFO ELU oHUoHYHGH HOH DOÕUODU 7NHWLFLOHU \ÕOGDQ \ÕOD GDOJDODQDQ GH÷LúNHQ ELU WNHWLP NDOÕEÕ \HULQH \ÕOGDQ \ÕOD LVWLNUDUOÕ ELU WNHWLP NDOÕEÕQD VDKLS ROPDN H÷LOLPLQGHGLUOHU %LU EDúND LIDGH\OH WNHWLFLOHU |PUOHUL ER\XQFD WNHWLP KDUFDPDODUÕQÕQ VHYL\HVLQGH KHUKDQJi bir EHOLUVL]OL÷LQRUWD\DoÕNPDVÕQÕDU]XHWPH]OHU
.
25
gPUER\XJHOLUKLSRWH]LQHJ|UHWNHWLFLOHULQ|PUoG|QHPHD\UÕODELOLU JHQoOLNG|QHPLRUWD\DúG|QHPLYHHPHklilik dönemi. Gençlik dönemi ile emeklilik G|QHPLQGH WNHWLFLOHULQ WDVDUUXI HWPH úDQVODUÕ ]D\ÕIWÕU dQN JHQoOLN G|QHPLQGH NXOODQÕODELOLU JHOLUOHUL WNHWLP KDUFDPDODUÕQD \HWPH\HFH÷L LoLQ ERUoODQPDN ]RUXQGDGÕUODU (PHNOLOLN G|QHPLQGH GH NXOODQÕODELOLU JHOLUOHULQL DUWÕUPD LPNDQÕ NDOPDGÕ÷Õ LoLQ GDKD |QFH \DSWÕNODUÕ WDVDUUXIX NXOODQPDN ]RUXQGD NDODFDNODUGÕU 2 KDOGH WNHWLFLOHU RUWD \Dú G|QHPLQGH JHQoOLN YH HPHNOLOLN G|QHPOHULQH J|UH GDKD ID]OD WDVDUUXI \DSPD H÷LOLPLQGH RODFDNODUGÕU %|\OHFH WNHWLFLOHU JHnçlik
.
gPU ER\X JHOLU KLSRWH]LQH J|UH úHNLOOHQHQ WNHWLP IRQNVL\RQX DúD÷ÕGDNL JLEL\D]ÕODELOLU Ct = [Yt + (N-1) Ǔe + W – M]/T (4) Burada, Ct = tüketLFLQLQW\ÕOÕQGDNLWNHWLPKDUFDPDODUÕQÕ Yt WNHWLFLQLQW\ÕOÕQGDNLFDULJHOLULQL 1 WNHWLFLQLQXPGX÷X|PUER\XQFDoDOÕúPDNLVWHGL÷L\ÕOVD\ÕVÕQÕ Ǔe WNHWLFLQLQ oDOÕúPD KD\DWÕ ER\XQFD HOGH HWPH\L XPGX÷X RUWDODPD \ÕOOÕNJHOLUL W = tüketicinin sahLSROGX÷XVHUYHWLQGH÷HULQL 0 WNHWLFLQLQEÕUDNPDNLVWHGL÷LPLUDVGH÷HULQL 7 WNHWLFLQLQNDo\ÕO\DúD\DFD÷ÕQDEHNOHQWLVLQL göstermektedir.
24 %RFXWR÷OXagk, s.112 25 %RFXWR÷OXagk, s.113
G|QHPLQGHNLERUoODUÕQÕNDSDWPDNYHHPHNOLOLNG|QHPLQHKD]ÕUOÕN\DSPDNDPDFÕ\OD RUWD\DúG|QHPLQGHGDKDID]ODWDVDUUXI\DSDFDNODUGÕU26.
ùHNLO ¶GH WNHWLP WDVDUUXIXQ \DúDP ER\X PRGHOL J|VWHULOPLúWLU 7P \DúDPER\XQFD&RUDQÕQGDELUWNHWLPDNÕPÕV|]NRQXVXGXU%XQXQWRSODPÕ&[1L GLU %X WNHWLP KDUFDPDVÕ oDOÕúÕODQ \DúDP ER\XQFD FDUL JHOLUOH ILQDQVH HGLOHFHNWLU (PHNOLOLN VUHVLQFH WNHWLP \DúDP ER\X ELULNWLULOPLú WDVDUUXIWDQ \DSÕODFDN oHNLúOHUOHILQDQVHHGLOPLúWLU%XQHGHQOHWDUDOÕDODQODU <L-C) x WL ve 0C x (WL-NL) HúLWWLU dDOÕúÕODQ \ÕOODUGD \DSÕODQ WDVDUUXI HPHNOLOLNWH PHQIL WDVDUUXIX ILQDQVH etmektedir.
.XúNXVX]NLúLOHULQJHOLUOHULoRNG]JQELUJLGLúJ|VWHUPH\HELOLU.LúLOHULQ JHOLUOHULQLQ\DúDPRUWDODPDVÕQÕQoRNVWQHoÕNWÕ÷ÕG|QHPOHUGHGDKDID]ODWDVDUUXIWD EXOXQXUODU \D GD JHOLUOHUL RUWDODPDQÕQ DOWÕQGD NDOGÕ÷ÕQGD PHQIL WDVDUUXIWD bulunurlar27
7NHWLFLOHU |]HOOLNOH RUWD \Dú G|QHPLQGH HOOHULQH JHoHQ DUÕ]i gelirleri KHPHQ WNHWLP KDUFDPDODUÕQD \|QOHQGLUPH\HFHN E\N NÕVPÕQÕ WDVDUUXI HGHUHN NoNYHLVWLNUDUOÕELUNÕVPÕQÕWNHWLPKDUFDPDODUÕQDD\ÕUDFDNWÕUgUQH÷LQWNHWLFLQLQ HOLQH OLUDOÕN ELU DUÕ]L JHOLU JHoPLúVH YH WNHWLFL \ÕO GDKD \DúD\DFD÷ÕQÕ XPX\RUVD EX DUÕ]L JHOLU DUWÕúÕQÕQ DQFDN OLUDOÕN NÕVPÕQÕ R \ÕONL WNHWLP KDUFDPDODUÕQD D\ÕUDFDN YH NDODQ OLUDVÕQÕ \D JHQoOLN G|QHPLQGH DOGÕ÷Õ ERUoODUÕ kapatmak üzere veya emeklilik dönemi için tasarruf edecektir. Tüketiciler için orta \Dú G|QHPL JHQoOLN G|QHPLQGHNL ERUoODUÕQ |GHQHELOHFH÷L YH HPHNOLOLNOH LOJLOL KD]ÕUOÕNODUÕQ\DSÕODELOHFH÷LE\NONWHELUID]ODWDVDUUXI\DSPDG|QHPLRODFDNWÕU . 28
26 %RFXWR÷OXagk, s.114 273DUDVÕ]agk, s.87 28 %RFXWR÷OXagk,s.114 . ùHNLO0RGLJOLDQL Piramidi
Ömür boyu gelir hipotezi, Keynes’in mutlak gelir hipotezi gibi, NXOODQÕODELOLU JHOLU LOH WNHWLP KDUFDPDODUÕ DUDVÕQGD RWRPDWLN ELU RUDQVDO LOLúNL |QJ|UPHPHNWHNRQMRQNWUGHYUHOHULQLQ\RODoWÕ÷ÕNXOODQÕODELOLUJHOLUGDOJDODQPDODUÕ WNHWLP KDUFDPDODUÕQD ROGX÷X JLEL \DQVÕPDPDNWDGÕU gUQH÷LQ NXOODQÕODELOLU JHOLU DUWWÕ÷Õ ]DPDQ PXWODN JHOLU KLSRWH]LQH J|UH WNHWLP KDUFDPDODUÕ DUWPD H÷LOLPLQH JLUPHNWHGLU +DOEXNL |PU ER\X JHOLU KLSRWH]LQH J|UH NXOODQÕODELOLU JHOLUGH RUWD\D oÕNDQELUDUWÕú|]HOOLNOHRUWD\DúG|QHPOHULQGHE\N|OoGHWDVDUUXIODUDJLWPHNWHYH NoNELUNÕVPÕWNHWLPKDUFDPDODUÕQDG|QúPHNtedir. Emek ve servet gelirlerinin, NXOODQÕODELOLU JHOLU LoLQGHNL SD\ODUÕ GH÷LúPHGL÷L VUHFH \DúDP ER\X JHOLU KLSRWH]L X]XQ G|QHPGH RUWDODPD WNHWLP H÷LOLPLQLQ VDELW NDODFD÷ÕQÕ |QJ|UPHNWHGLU NL EX GXUXPWNHWLPEXOPDFDVÕQÕQJ|VWHUGL÷LVRQXoLOH|UWúPHNWedir29
6UHNOL JHOLU KLSRWH]L , )LVKHU¶LQ ]DPDQODUDUDVÕ VHoLP PRGHOLQH GD\DQPDNWDGÕU)LVKHUHJ|UHLOHUL\HEDNDQELUWNHWLFLWNHWLPNDUDUODUÕQGD\DOQÕ]FD FDULJHOLULQLGH÷LOD\QÕ]DPDQGDJHOHFHNWHHOLQHJHoHFH÷LQLEHNOHGL÷LJHOLULED]DOÕU %|\OHFH VUHNOL JHOLU KLSRWH]L WNHWLPLQ LQVDQODUÕQ JHOLULQH ED÷OÕ ROGX÷XQD GLNNDWL çekmektedir
.
4.3. Sürekli Gelir Teorisi
30
6UHNOL JHOLU NXUDPÕ GD \DúDP G|QJV KLSRWH]LQGH ROGX÷X JLEL WNHWLPLQ FDUL JHOLUH GH÷LO JHOLULQ GDKD X]XQ G|QHPOL WDKPLQLQH GD\DQGÕ÷ÕQÕ LOeri sürer. Bu NXUDPÕ LON NH] RUWD\D DWDQ 0LOWRQ )ULHGPDQ EX JHOLUL VUHNOL JHOLU GL\H DGODQGÕUPÕúWÕU
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33 3DUDVÕ]agk, s.90 34 3DUDVÕ]agk, s.90 35
Leon Zurawick-Nestor Braidot, “Consumers During Crisis: Responses From The Middle Class in Argentina”, Journal of Business Research Volume, Vol.58, Issue 8, August 2005, s.1100.
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Zurawick-Braidot, a.g.m., s.1100
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41
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42 Dutt- Padmanabhan, a.g.m., s.4. 43 Dutt- Padmanabhan, a.g.m., s.4.
44 David J. McKenzie, “The Consumer Response to theMexican Peso Crisis”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, Vol.55, Issue 1, October 2006, s.148.
45
Shafiq Dhanani-Iyanatul Islam, “Poverty, Vulnerability and Social Protection in a Period of Crisis: The Case of Indonesia”, World Development , Vol.30, No. 7, July 2002, s.1226.
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7DEORGDQ J|UOG÷ JLEL DQNHWH NDWÕODQODUÕQ \]GH ¶L ED\DQ yüzde ¶VLED\GÕU$QNHWHNDWÕODQODUÕQ¶L-\DúDUDOÕ÷ÕQGD\NHQ ¶XHYOLYH ¶L EHNDUGÕU <]GH ¶LQLQ KLo oRFX÷X \RNNHQ \]GH ¶LQLQ HúL oDOÕúPDPDNWD ¶VLQLQ LVH HúL oDOÕúPDNWDGÕU $QNHWH NDWÕODQ WNHWLFLOHULQ %48,4’ü il merkH]LQGHRWXUPDNWD ¶X\NVHN|÷UHWLPPH]XQXGXU
gUQHNOHP|]HOOLNOHULQLQWDQÕWÕPÕQDGHYDPHGLOHQWDEOR¶GHQGHJ|UOG÷ JLEL DQNHWH NDWÕODQODUÕQ ¶L -500TL gelir düzeyinde %28,4’ü de 501-1000TL gelir düzeyindedir. Yüzde 13,8’lik grup serbest meslek sahibi iken %24’ü |÷UHQFLGLU
Tablo:1 Örneklem Özellikleri
'H÷LúNHQOHU VD\Õ Yüzde Cinsiyet Bay 187 48,7 Bayan 195 50,8 <Dú 15-30 199 51,8 31-45 120 31,3 46-60 44 11,5 61 ve üzeri 15 3,9 Medeni Evli 188 49 Bekar 171 44,5
%RDQPÕú-dul 21 5,5 dRFXNVD\ÕVÕ Yok 190 49,5 1 48 12,5 2 62 16,1 3 46 12 4 ve üzeri 34 8,9 (úLQL] Evet 93 24,2 KD\ÕU 250 65,1 $LOHQLQLNDPHWHWWL÷L Köy 28 7,3 Belde 59 15,4 øOoHPHUNH]L 73 19 øOPHUNH]L 186 48,4 (÷LWLP Okur-yazar 12 3,1 øON|÷UHWLP 50 13 2UWD|÷UHWLP 108 28,1 <NVHN|÷UHWL 138 35,9 lisansüstü 31 8,1
Tablo:2 Örneklem Özellikleri
'H÷LúNHQOHU VD\Õ Yüzde $\OÕNJHOLULQL] 0-500 146 38 501-1000 109 28,4 1001-1500 65 16,9 1501-2000 16 4,2 2001-2500 7 1,8 2501 ve üzeri 6 1,6 PHVOH÷LQL] Serbest meslek 53 13,8 (YKDQÕPÕ 58 15,1 øúoL 24 6,3 Memur 13 3,4 %DQNDFÕ 9 2,3 Doktor 4 1,0
g÷UHWPHQ 19 4,9 Mühendis 2 ,5 Astsubay 1 ,3 g÷UHQFL 92 24 Çiftçi 11 2,9 (F]DFÕ 6 1,6 Teknisyen 1 ,3 Avukat/hakim/sa 1 ,3 +HPúLUH 7 1,8 Polis 15 3,9 Terzi 8 2,1 Emekli 22 5,7 øúVL] 17 4,4 DL÷HU 19 4,9
8.Krizin Market Ürünleri Tercihine Etkisi
%XE|OPGHNUHVHONUL]LQPDUNHWUQOHULWHUFLKLQHHWNLVLHOHDOÕQPÕúWÕU%X DPDoOD VRUXODQ VRUXODUD WNHWLFLOHULQ YHUGLNOHUL FHYDSODU DúD÷ÕGDNL WDEORGD YHULOPLúWLU
7DEORGDQ J|UOG÷ JLEL DQNHWH NDWÕODQ WNHWLFLOHUGHQ NLúLQLQ ucuz marka tercihLDUWDUNHQ NLúLQLQGH÷LúPHGL÷LYH NLúLQLQGH XFX] PDUND WHUFLKLQLQ DUWWÕ÷ÕQÕ J|U\RUX] 7HRUL\L GHVWHNOHU QLWHOLNWH WNHWLFLOHULQ XFX]PDUNDWHUFLKLDUWPÕúWÕU<LQHWDEORGDQJ|UOG÷JLELHNRQRPLNNUL]VLJDUDYH WWQPDPXOOHULVDWÕQDOÕPÕNXUX\HPLúVWYHVWUQOHULNDKYDOWÕUQOHULFRODOÕ içecekler, alkollü içecekler, makarna, pirinç, bulgur, patates çay, kahve, beyaz et, VHE]HPH\YHWHPL]OLNUQOHULúHNHUOHPHOHUIDVWIRRGJÕGDODUJLELPDUNHWUQOHUL WDOHELQL GH÷LúWLUPHPLúWLU .ÕUPÕ]Õ HW WDOHEL LVH NLúLQLQ D]DOÕUNHQ NLúLQLQGH÷LúPHPLú NLúLQLQLVHDUWPÕúWÕU<DQLHNRQRPLNNUL] XFX] PDUND WHUFLKLQL DUWWÕUPÕú NÕUPÕ]Õ HW WDOHELQL D]DOWPÕú YH VD\ÕODQ GL÷HU PDUNHW ürünleri talebini ise etkilememLúWLU %XUDGDQ HNRQRPLN NUL]LQ SLULQo EXOJXU JLEL \D GDoD\NDKYHJLELLNDPHQOHULQWDOHELQLGH÷LúWLUPHGL÷LQLV|\OH\HELOLUL]
Tablo 3: Krizin Market Ürünleri Talebine Etkileri ARTTI '(öøù0('ø AZALDI Frekans % Frekans % Frekans % Ucuz marka tercihiniz 219
%57
124 %32,3
39 %10,2 6LJDUD YH WWQ PDPXOOHUL VDWÕQ
DOÕPÕQÕ] 41 %10,7 237 %61,7 104 %27,1 .XUX\HPLúVDWÕQDOÕPÕQÕ] 33 %8,6 217 %56,5 131 %34,1 6WYHVWUQOHUL \R÷XUW-peynir JLEL VDWÕQDOÕPÕQÕ] 39 %10,2 241 %62,8 102 %26,6 Yumurta-zeytin-reçelgibi NDKYDOWÕUQOHULVDWÕQDOÕPÕQÕ] 52 %13,5 248 %64,6 82 %21,4 KRODOÕ LoHFHNOHU
IDQWD-cola-JD]R] VDWÕQDOÕPÕQÕ] 41 %10,7 201 %52,3 139 %36,2 Alkollü içecekler UDNÕ ELUD YE
VDWÕQDOÕPÕQÕ] 39 %10,2 200 %52,1 143 %37,2 0DNDUQDVDWÕQDOÕPÕQÕ] 109 % 28,4 220 %57,3 52 %13,5 3LULQoVDWÕQDOÕPÕQÕ] 43 %11,2 270 %70,3 69 %18 %XOJXUVDWÕQDOÕPÕQÕ] 65 %16,9 254 %66,1 62 %16,1 3DWDWHVVDWÕQDOÕPÕQÕ] 91 %23,7 260 %67,7 30 %7,8 dD\VDWÕQDOÕPÕQÕ] 53 %13,8 280 %72,9 48 %12,5 .DKYHVDWÕQDOÕPÕQÕ] 29 %7,6 238 %62 115 %29,9
.ÕUPÕ]ÕHWVDWÕQDOÕPÕQÕ] 25 %6,5 163 %42,4 194 %50,5 %H\D]HWVDWÕQDOÕPÕQÕ] 74 %19,3 214 %55,7 94 %24,5 6HE]HPH\YHVDWÕQDOÕPÕQÕ] 72 %18,8 246 %64,1 64 %16,7 Deterjan ve temizlik ürünleri
VDWÕQDOÕPÕQÕ] 39 %10,2 271 %70,6 72 %18,8 Çikolata –bisküvi-úHNHU JLEL
úHNHUOHPHUQOHULVDWÕQDOÕPÕQÕ] 40 %10,4 225 %58,6 117 %30,5 )DVWIRRGJÕGDODUÕVDWÕQDOÕPÕQÕ] 36 %9,4 216 %56,3 130 %33,9
.UL]LQ(÷LWLP+DUFDPDODUÕQD(WNLVL
<XNDUÕGDNL WDEORGDQ NUL]LQ H÷LWLP KDUFDPDODUÕ ]HULQGHNL HWNLVLQL J|U\RUX] 7DEORGDQ J|UOG÷ JLEL DQNHWH NDWÕODQ NLúLQLQ H÷LWLP KDUFDPDODUÕ GH÷LúPHPLú NLúLQLQ H÷LWLP KDUFDPDODUÕ DUWPÕú NLúLQLQH÷LWLPKDUFDPDODUÕD]DOPÕúWÕU2NXPDNLoLQDOGÕNODUÕNLWDSVD\ÕVÕ NLúLQLQ GH÷LúPHGHQ D\QÕ NDOÕUNHQ NLúLQLQ D]DOGÕ÷Õ YH NLúLQLQ DUWWÕ÷Õ J|rülmektedir. Kalem-silgi-FHWYHO JLEL NÕUWDVL\H UQOHUL WDOHELQLQ GH NLúLQLQ GH÷LúPHGL÷L NLúLQLQ D]DOGÕ÷Õ YH NLúLQLQ DUWWÕ÷Õ J|UOPHNWHGLU 'HUV NLWDEÕ-defter-ND÷ÕW JLEL NÕUWDVL\H UQOHUL WDOHELQLQ NLúLQLQGH÷LúPHGL÷L NLúLQLQD]DOGÕ÷ÕYH NLúLQLQDUWWÕ÷Õ EHOLUOHQPLúWLU $OÕQDQ JD]HWH VD\ÕVÕQÕQ LVH NLúLQLQ GH÷LúPHGL÷L NLúLQLQ D]DOGÕ÷Õ YH NLúLQLQ DUWWÕ÷Õ WHVSLW HGLOPLúWLU *HQHO RODUDN NUL]LQH÷LWLPKDUFDPDODUÕQÕGH÷LúWLUPHGL÷LDQODúÕOPDNWDGÕU
7DEOR .UL]LQ(÷LWLP+DUFDPDODUÕQD(WNLVL
ARTTI '(öøù0('ø AZALDI
Frekans % Frekans % Frekans %
(÷LWLPKDUFDPDODUÕQÕ] 75 %19,5 249 %64,8 58 %15,1 2NXPDNLoLQDOGÕ÷ÕQÕ]NLWDSVD\ÕVÕ 35 %9,1 245 %63,8 102 %26,6 6DWÕQDOGÕ÷ÕQÕ]NDOHP-silgi-cetvel gibi NÕUWDVL\HUQOHUL 39 %10,2 260 %67,7 83 %21,6 6DWÕQDOGÕ÷ÕQÕ]GHUVNLWDEÕ-defter-ND÷ÕW JLELNÕUWDVL\HUQOHUL 48 %12,5 254 %66,1 79 %20,6 $OGÕ÷ÕQÕ]JD]HWHVD\ÕVÕ 35 %9,1 251 %65,4 95 %24,7
10. Krizin Teknoloji Ürünleri Talebine Etkisi
$úD÷ÕGDNL WDEOR LVH NUL]LQ WHNQRORMLN UQOHU WDOHELQH HWNLVLQL YHUPHNWHGLU 7DEORGDQ J|UOG÷ JLEL ELOJLVD\DU VDWÕQ DOÕPÕ NLúLQLQ GH÷LúPHPLú NLúLQLQ D]DOPÕú YH NLúLQLQ DUWPÕúWÕU <D]ÕFÕ&' PRGHP gibi ELOJLVD\DU UQOHUL WDOHEL NLúLQLQ GH÷LúPHPLú NLúLQLQ D]DOPÕúYH NLúLQLQLVHDUWPÕúWÕU&HSWHOHIRQXWDOHELLVH NLúLQLQ GH÷LúPHPLú NLúLQLQ D]DOPÕú YH NLúLQLQ LVH DUWPÕúWÕU Televizyon sDWÕQDOÕPÕ NLúLQLQGH÷LúPHPLú NLúLQLQD]DOPÕú YH NLúLQLQ DUWPÕúWÕU LQWHUQHW NXOODQÕP VUHVL LVH NLúLQLQ GH÷LúPHPLú NLúLQLQD]DOPÕúYH NLúLQLQLVHDUWPÕúWÕU7DEOR\X JHQHO RODUDN \RUXPODGÕ÷ÕPÕ]GD NUL] WHNQRORML UQOHUL WDOHELQL GH÷LúWLUPHGL÷LQL söyleyebiliriz.
Tablo:6 Krizin Teknoloji Talebine Etkisi
.UL]LQ<DúDQ6WDQGDUGÕQD(WNLVL
.UL] G|QHPLQGH NLúLQLQ DUDED VDWÕQ DOÕPÕ GH÷LúPHPLú NLúLQLQD]DOPÕúYH NLúLQLQDUDEDWDOHELLVHDUWPÕúWÕU7DEORGDQ J|UOG÷ JLEL NLúLQLQ HY WDOHEL GH÷LúPHPLú NLúLQLn D]DOPÕú YH NLúLQLQ LVH DUWPÕúWÕU NLUD KDUFDPDODUÕ NLúLQLQ GH÷LúPHPLú NLúLQLQ DUWPÕú YH NLúLQLQ LVH D]DOPÕúWÕU 8ODúÕP KDUFDPDODUÕ NLúLQLQ GH÷LúPHPLú NLúLQLQ DUWPÕú YH NLúLQLQ LVH D]DOPÕúWÕU .UL] G|QHPLQGH VD÷OÕN KDUFDPDODUÕ NLúLQLQ GH÷LúPHPLú NLúLQLQ DUWPÕú YH NLúLQLQ D]DOPÕúWÕU .UL] G|QHPLQGH JL\LP KDUFDPDODUÕ NLúLQLQ GH÷LúPHPLú NLúLQLQ D]DOPÕúYH NLúLQLQLVHDUWPÕúWÕUNR]PHWLNUQOHULQHRODQWDOHS NLúLQLQ GH÷LúPHPLú NLúLQLQ D]DOPÕú YH NLúLQLQ LVH DUWPÕúWÕU 7HOHIRQ KDUFDPDODUÕ NLúLQLQ D]DOPÕú NLúLQLQ GH÷LúPHPLú YH NLúLQLQ DUWPÕúWÕU EH\D] Hú\D WDOHEL NLúLQLQ GH÷LúPHPLú NLúLQLQ D]DOPÕú YH NLúLQLQ DUWPÕúWÕU 0RELO\D WDOHEL NLúLQLQGH÷LúPHPLú NLúLQLQD]DOPÕúYH NLúLQLQLVH DUWPÕúWÕU
7DEORGDQ GD J|UOG÷ JLEL NUL] G|QHPLQGH VLQHPD WL\DWUR JLbi soysal HWNLQOLNOHUH NDWÕOPD WDOHEL NLúLQLQ D]DOPÕú NLúLQLQ GH÷LúPHPLú YH NLúLQLQ DUWPÕúWÕU .UL] QHGHQL\OH HYGH GDKD oRN ]DPDQ JHoLUPH WDOHEL NLúLQLQ DUWPÕú NLúLQLQ GH÷LúPHPLú YH NLúLQLQ LVH D]DOPÕúWÕU 'ÕúDUÕGD \HPHN \HPH VD\ÕVÕ NLúLQLQ D]DOPÕú NLúLQLQ GH÷LúPHPLú YH NLúLQLQ LVH DUWPÕúWÕU .UL] G|QHPLQGH WDWLO KDUFDPDODUÕ LVH NLúLQLQ D]DOPÕú NLúLQLQ GH÷LúPHPLúYH NLúLQLQDUWPÕúWÕr.
ARTTI '(öøù0('ø AZALDI
Frekans % Frekans % Frekans % %LOJLVD\DUVDWÕQDOÕPÕQÕ] 22 %5,7 259 %67,4 101 %26,3 %LOJLVD\DU UQOHUL \D]ÕFÕ &'
PRGHPYE VDWÕQDOÕPÕQÕ] 21 %5,5 249 %64,8 112 %29,2 &HSWHOHIRQXVDWÕQDOÕPÕQÕ] 26 %6,8 229 %59,6 127 %33,1 7HOHYL]\RQVDWÕQDOÕPÕQÕ] 21 %5,5 252 %65,6 109 %28,4 øQWHUQHWNXOODQÕPVUHQL] 34 %8,9 230 %59,9 118 %30,7
7DEOR .UL]LQ<DúDP6WDQGDUGÕQD(WNLOHUL
Bireysel ARTTI '(öøù0('ø AZALDI
Frekans % Frekans % Frekans %
.UL] G|QHPLQGH DUDED VDWÕQ DOÕPÕQÕ] 22 %5,7 251 %65,4 111 %28,9 .UL] G|QHPLQGH \HQL HY VDWÕQ DOÕPÕQÕ] 13 %3,4 260 %67,7 111 %28,9 Kriz döneminde kira
KDUFDPDODUÕQÕ] 85 %22,1 231 %60,2 68 %17,7 .UL] G|QHPLQGH XODúÕP KDUFDPDODUÕQÕ] 105 %27,3 203 %52,9 76 %19,8 .UL] G|QHPLQGH VD÷OÕN KDUFDPDODUÕQÕ] 96 %25 225 %58,6 63 %16,4 Kriz döneminde giyim
KDUFDPDODUÕQÕ] 61 %15,9 163 %42,4 158 %41,1 Kriz döneminde kozmetik
UQOHULQHKDUFDPDODUÕQÕ] 35 %9,1 219 %57 130 %33,9 Kriz döneminde telefon
KDUFDPDODUÕQÕ] 36 %9,4 162 %42,2 185 %48,2 .UL] G|QHPLQGH EH\D] Hú\D VDWÕQ DOÕPÕQÕ] 16 %4,2 242 %63 125 %32,6 Kriz döneminde PRELO\D VDWÕQ
DOÕPÕQÕ] 17 %4,4 239 %62,2 128 %33,3 Sinema tiyatro gibi sosyal
HWNLQOLNOHUHNDWÕOPDGXUXPXQX] 53 %13,8 152 %39,6 178 %46,4 Kriz nedeniyle evde daha çok
zaman geçirme durumunuz
183 %47,7 141 %36,7 60 %15,6 'ÕúDUÕGD\HPHN\HPHVD\ÕQÕ] 33 148 203
12.$\OÕN *HOLU ']H\L øOH .UL] '|QHPLQGH *L\LP +DUFDPDODUÕ-Ucuz
Marka Tercihi-(÷LWLP+DUFDPDODUÕ$UDVÕQGDNLøOLúNL
7DEOR $\OÕN*HOLU']H\LYH*L\LP+DUFDPDODUÕøOLúNLVL
Kriz döneminde giyim
KDUFDPDODUÕQ] 2 $UWWÕ 'H÷LúPHGL $]DOGÕ 7,5 ,002 $\OÕN geliriniz 0-500 3 60 2 5,9% 41,4% 2,8% 01-1000 9 36 3 7,6% 33,3% 9,1% 1001-1500 33 3 3,8% 50,8% 5,4% 1501-2000 10 2,5% 62,5% 5,0% 2001-2500 1 1,4% 14,3% 4,3% 2501ve üstü 4 3,3% 66,7%
<DSÕODQ NL-NDUH WHVWLQH J|UH D\OÕN JHOLUOH NUL] G|QHPLQGH NL JL\LP KDUFDPDODUÕ DUDVÕQGD DQODPOÕ ELU LOLúNL EXOXQPXúWXU 3 7DEORGDQ GD J|UOG÷JLEL-7/JHOLUG]H\LQGHNL NLúLQLQJL\LPKDUFDPDODUÕ D]DOÕUNHQ NLúLQLQJL\LPKDUFDPDODUÕGH÷LúPHPLúWLU-1500 TL gelir JUXEXQGDNL NLúLQLQ NUL] G|QHPLQGH JL\LP KDUFDPDODUÕ GH÷LúPH]NHQ NLúLQLQJL\LPKDUFDPDODUÕD]DOPÕúWÕU
%8,6 %38,5 %52,9
Kriz döneminde tatil
KDUFDPDODUÕQÕ] 20 %5,2 146 %38 218 %56,8
7DEOR $\OÕN*HOLU']H\LYH8FX]0DUND7HUFLKLøOLúNLVL
ucuz marka tercihiniz 2
$UWWÕ 'H÷LúPHGL $]DOGÕ 1,5 ,00 D\OÕN geliriniz 0-500 8 37 0 0,7% 25,5% 3,8% 501-1000 5 27 8,8% 24,8% ,4% 1001-1500 0 33 6,2% 50,8% 3,1% 1501-2000 9 1,3% 56,3% 2,5% 2001-2500 4 57,1% 2,9% 2501 ve üzeri 6 100,0%
7DEORGDQ J|UOG÷ JLEL \DSÕODQ NL-NDUH WHVWL VRQXFXQD J|UH D\OÕN JHOLU G]H\LLOHXFX]PDUNDWHUFLKLDUDVÕQGDDQODPOÕELULOLúNLEXOXQPXúWXU 3 $\OÕN gelir düzeyi 501- 7/ DUDVÕQGD RODQ NLúLQLQ XFX] PDUND WHUFLKL DUWDUNHQD\OÕN JHOLUL-7/DUDVÕQGDRODQ NLúLQLQXFX]PDUNDWHUFLKL DUWPÕúWÕU
7DEOR $\OÕN*HOLU']H\L(÷LWLP+DUFDPDODUÕøOLúNLVL H÷LWLPKDUFDPDODUÕQÕ] 2 $UWWÕ 'H÷LúPHGL $]DOGÕ 5,5 ,004 $\OÕN geliriniz 0-500 7 77 2 5,3% 52,7% 1,9% 01-1000 3 83 2 2,0% 76,9% 1,1% 1001-1500 5 47 3,1% 72,3% ,6% 1501-2000 8 1,3% 50,0% 8,8% 2001-2500 4 8,6% 57,1% 4,3% 2501 ve üzeri 4 3,3% 66,7% 7DEORGDQJ|UOG÷JLELF2 WHVWLVRQXFXQDJ|UHD\OÕNJHOLUG]H\L\OHH÷LWLP KDUFDPDODUÕ DUDVÕQGD GD DQODPOÕ ELU LOLúNL YDUGÕU $\OÕN JHOLU G]H\L -1000 TL DUDVÕQGDRODQ NLúLQLQH÷LWLPKDUFDPDODUÕGH÷LúPHPLúWLU
13. Sonuç
7UNL\H¶GHNL EDQNDFÕOÕN VLVWHPLQLQ PHYFXW \DSÕVDO |]HOOL÷L YH SL\DVDGDNL DNW|UOHULQ NUL] VÕUDVÕQGDNL GDYUDQÕú ELoLPOHUL 7UNL\H¶QLQ EX NUL]L J|UHOL D] KDVDUOD DWODWPDVÕQDQHGHQROPXúWXU%XQDJ|UH|]HOOLNOHNUL]LQGHQVRQUDDWÕODQDGÕPODU 7UNL\H¶GHNL EDQNDFÕOÕN VLVWHPLQL VD÷ODPODúWÕUPÕú YH ELU LVWLNUDUD NDYXúWXUPXúWXU *HUoHNWHQ GH %''.¶QÕQ VÕNÕ ELU úHNLOGH EDQNDODUÕ J|]HWLPL EDQNDODUÕQ VHUPD\H \HWHUOLOLNOHULQGH ELU HNVLNOLN ROPDPDVÕ G|YL] YDUOÕNODUÕ\OD G|YL] \NPOONOHUL DUDVÕQGDELUGHQJHROPDVÕYH$%'¶GHNLQLQDNVLQH7UNL\H¶GHNRQXWLSRWH÷LQHGD\DOÕ WDKYLOERQR LKUDFÕQÕQ \DSÕOPDPDVÕ ROXPOX ELUHU \DSÕVDO |]HOOLN RODUDN NDUúÕPÕ]D oÕNPÕúWÕU $\UÕFD EDQNDODUÕQ NHQGL DUDODUÕQGDNL NUHGL DNÕúÕQÕ NHVPHPHOHUL YH ELU DQODPGDOLNLGLWH\LGHYDPHWWLUPHOHULELUH\úLUNHW\DGDEDúNDELUILQDQVNXUXOXúXQD NXOODQGÕUGÕNODUÕ NUHGLOHULQL SDQL÷H NDSÕODUDN KHPHQ JHUL oD÷ÕUPDPDODUÕ PXGLOHULQ PHYGXDWODUÕQÕ oHNPHN LoLQ EDQNDODUD KFXP HWPHPHOHUL YH EX DQODPGD SL\DVD\D RODQ JYHQOHULQL |UWO RODUDN DoÕNODPDODUÕ GD 7UNL\H¶QLQ KDQHVLQH DUWÕ ELU GH÷HU olarak gHoPLúWLU50
50.UHVHO.UL]YH7UNL\H¶\H<DQVÕPDODUÕ"
.
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