Finansal serbestleşmenin tüketim harcamaları üzerindeki etkisi: Türkiye örneği
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(4) g=(7 <NVHN/LVDQV7H]L )LQDQVDO6HUEHVWOHúPHQLQ7NHWLP+DUFDPDODUÕh]HULQGHNL(WNLVL 7UNL\HgUQH÷L Mustafa Ozan YILDIRIM. 'RNX](\OOhQLYHUVLWHVL 6RV\DO%LOLPOHU(QVWLWV øNWLVDW$QDELOLP'DOÕ øNWLVDW3URJUDPÕ. )LQDQVDOVHUEHVWOHúPH|]HOOLNOH ¶OL\ÕOODUÕQLNLQFL\DUÕVÕQGDQLWLEDUHQ EDúWDJHOLúPLúONHOHUROPDN]HUHELUoRNONHQLQJQGHPLQHJLUPLúWLU øNWLVDGL temeli McKinnon-Shaw KLSRWH]LQH GD\DQDQ ILQDQVDO VHUEHVWOHúPH VHUPD\H hareketlerinin XOXVODU DUDVÕ ER\XWWD VHUEHVWOHúPHVL RODUDN WDQÕPODQPDNWDGÕU McKinnon-6KDZ KLSRWH]LQH J|UH ILQDQVDO VHUEHVWOHúPH SROLWLNDODUÕQÕQ X\JXODQPDVÕVRQXFXQGDWDVDUUXIYH\DWÕUÕPPLNWDUODUÕDUWDFDNEXQXQ\DQÕVÕUD LNWLVDGLHWNLQOLNYHE\PHJHUoHNOHúPLúRODFDNWÕU *HOLúPLú ONHOHUGHQ ROGXNoD IDUNOÕ NRúXOODUD YH DPDoODUD VDKLS gHOLúPHNWHRODQONHOHULQbir taraftan \HWHUVL]\XUWLoLWDVDUUXIODUÕGL÷HUWDUDIWDQ HNRQRPLN NDONÕQPD\Õ KÕ]ODQGÕUPD LVWHNOHUL GÕú ND\QDN NXOODQPD WDOHELQL DUWÕUPÕúWÕU %X DPDo oHUoHYHVLQGH GH ELUoRN ONHGH XOXVODUDUDVÕ VHUPD\H hareketlerine izin verilmesi yani ILQDQVDO VHUEHVWOHúPH JQGHPH JHOPLúWLU %|\OHFH KHP JHOLúPLú KHP GH JHOLúPHNWH RODQ ONHOHUGH \D\JÕQODúDQ VHUEHVWOHúPHX\JXODPDODUÕILQDQVÕQNUHVHOOHúPHVLVRQXFXQXGR÷XUPXúWXU. iv.
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(6) ABSTRACT 0DVWHU¶V7KHVLV The Effects of Financial Liberalisation on the Consumption Expenditure: The Case of Turkey Mustafa Ozan YILDIRIM. 'RNX](\OO8QLYHUVLW\ Graduate School of Social Sciences Department of Economics Program of Economics. Financial liberalization impacts on all economies, firstly developed economies, as from late 1980s. Financial liberalization that is based on the hypothesis of McKinnon-Shaw is described as liberalization of capital flows. With regard to the hypothesis, financial liberalization policies cause that savings and investments increase and that efficiency and growth realize. International capital flows that become foreign savings for a developing economy accelerate the process of financial liberalization because of the fact that domestic savings are inadequate for developing. In Turkish economy, the obstacles against capital flows has been removed by way of a regulation in 1989, because of both the great transformation in its economic structure as from 24th January 1980 and macroeconomic instabilities. After this date some economic crises and instabilities are experienced in respect of international capital flows into vi.
(7) Turkish economy that expects to meet domestic saving inadequateness with foreign capital. In this study, We aim to analyze the effect of financial liberalization on consumer expenditure that in Turkish economy which the obstacles against foreign capital flows has been removed within financial liberalization in 1989. According to the results of analyses financial liberalization has decreased the national saving especially after 2000 whereas it has increased consumer expenditure with several mechanism on Turkish economy.. Key words: Financial Liberalization, International Capital Movements, Turkish Economy, Consumption Expenditures, VAR model.. vii.
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(33) )ø1$16$/6(5%(67/(ù0(1ø1$ù$0$/$5, )LQDQVDO VHUEHVWOHúPH NDYUDPÕQGD ELUELUL LOH ED÷ODQWÕOÕ LNL DúDPDOÕ ELU JHoLú V|] NRQXVXGXU )LQDQVDO VHUEHVWOHúPH |QFHOLNOH Lo SL\DVDODUÕQ VHUEHVWOHúPHVLQH \|QHOLN X\JXODPDODUÕQ RUWD\D NRQXOPDVÕ\OD EDúODU YH EX SROLWLNDODU GHYDP HGHUNHQ \D GD E\N NÕVPÕ WDPDPODQPÕúNHQ LNLQFL DúDPD KD\DWD JHoLULOLU )LQDQVDO VHUEHVWOHúPHQLQLoSL\DVDODUÕQVHUEHVWOHúPHVLQGHQVRQUDNLLNLQFLDúDPDVÕQda finansal SL\DVDODUÕQ \XUWGÕúÕQD DoÕNOÕ÷Õ VD÷ODQÕU YH E|\OHFH VHUPD\H KDUHNHWOHULQLQ VHUEHVWOHúWLULOPHVL JHUoHNOHúWLULOLU 7DP ILQDQVDO VHUEHVWOHúPH\H EX LNL DúDPDQÕQ WDPDPODQPDVÕQGDQVRQUDJHoLOPHNWHGLU øo)LQDQVDO6HUEHVWOHúPH øoILQDQVDOVHUEHVWOHúPH\OH\XUWLoLQGHNLSDUDFLQVLQGHQERUo-DODFDNLOLúNLOHUL YH YDUOÕ÷D VDKLS ROPD NDUDUÕQGDNL IL\DW YH PLNWDU NÕVÕWODPDODUÕQÕQ NDOGÕUÕOPDVÕ DPDoODQPDNWDGÕU%XVUHoWH|QFHOLNOHPHYGXDWIDL]RUDQODUÕQD\DSÕODQPGDKDOHOHU NDOGÕUÕOÕU YH GDKD VRQUD PHYGXDW IDL] RUDQODUÕ SL\DVDGD NHQGLOL÷LQGHQ EHOLUOHQHFHN úHNLOGHROXúWXUXOXU 6D\JÕOÕ 2001: 166). Bunun sonucunda ekonomide yeni finansal DUDoODURUWD\DoÕNDUYHEXDUDoODUÕQ\|QHWLPLQHLOLúNLQG]HQOHPHOHU\DSÕOÕU Genel olarak Lo ILQDQVDO VHUEHVWOHúme kapsDPÕQGD; \XUWLoL IDL] KDGGL ]HULQGHNL WDYDQÕQ NDOGÕUÕOPDVÕ \DVDO NDUúÕOÕN RUDQODUÕQÕQ GúUOPHVL EDQNDFÕOÕN VLVWHPLQH \HQL EDQNDODUÕQ JLULúinin NROD\ODúWÕUÕOPDVÕ LúOHYVHO rekabet RUWDPÕQÕQ JHUoHNOHúWLULOPHVL VHUPD\H SL\DVDVÕQÕQ JHOLúLPLQLQ WHúvik edilmesi, gerekli yeni NXUXPVDO \DSÕODUÕQ ROXúWXUXOPDVÕ ILQDQVDO YDUOÕN oHúLWOLOL÷inin DUWÕUÕOPDVÕ, finansal piyasalarda etkin ELOJL DNÕúÕQÕQ VD÷ODQPDVÕ |QFHOLNOL VHNW|UOHUH VXQXODQ VHOHNWLI NUHGLOHULQNDOGÕUÕODUDNSL\DVDODUÕQND\QDNE|OúPQQVD÷ODPDVÕQÕ hedeflemek gibi QLFHOLNVHO YH QLWHOLNVHO G]HQOHPHOHU JQGHPH JHOPHNWHGLU g]GLQo 1994: 15
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(36) %XQDED÷OÕN RODUDNELUGL÷HU JHOLúPHLVH ILQDQVDO SL\DVDODUÕQ JHQLúOHPHVL VRQXFXQGD ILQDQVDO UQOHULQ oHúLWOLOL÷LQGH RUWD\D oÕNPÕúWÕU 'Õú)LQDQVDO6HUEHVWOHúPH 'ÕúILQDQVDOVHUEHVWOHúPHONHGH\DúD\DQ\HUOHúLNOHULQ\DEDQFÕSDUDFLQVLQGHQ YDUOÕNVDKLELROPDVÕERUoDOWÕQDJLUPHVLQL \HUOHúLNROPD\DQODUÕQLVH\XUWLoLILQDQVDO VLVWHPGH IDDOL\HWWH EXOXQPDODUÕQD LPNkQ WDQÕQPDVÕGÕU %DúND ELU DQODWÕPOD GÕú ILQDQVDO VHUEHVWOHúPH \HUOHúLNOHU LoLQ GÕú SL\DVDODUGD YDUOÕN YH \NPOON DOWÕQD JLUPH\L\HUOHúLNROPD\DQODUDLVHXOXVDOSL\DVDODUGDLúOHP\DSPD\ÕNROD\ODúWÕUDQELU SROLWLNDRODUDNWDQÕPODQDELOLU Esen, 2000: 3). 'Õú ILQDQVDO VHUEHVWOHúPHQLQ ELU VRQXFX RODUDN L
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(44) NXUPXúODUGÕU 6H\LGR÷OX 2003: 214). Bretton Woods sistemi olaUDNNDEXOHGLOHQEXROXúXP,0)GHQHWLPLQGHVDELWIDNDW D\DUODQDELOLU G|YL] NXUX VLVWHPLQL YH ONHOHULQ VHUPD\H KHVDSODUÕQÕ NRUXPDODUÕQÕ WHúYLN HGL\RUGX 'Q\D HNRQRPLVLQGH ,0) YH ,%5' |QFO÷QGH YH .H\QHV\HQ SROLWLNDODUÕQX\JXODQPDVÕ\ODELUOLNWH\DNODúÕN \ÕOOÕNµ$OWÕQdD÷¶GL\HDGODQGÕUÕODQ KÕ]OÕ ELU E\PH YH UHIDK G|QHPL \DúDQPÕúWÕU $QFDN ¶OL \ÕOODUÕQ EDúODUÕQGD VLVWHP JHQLúOHPH YH E\PH G|QHPLQLQ WHPHOLQL ROXúWXUDQ ELULNLP WDU]ÕQÕQ WÕNDQPDVÕVRQXFXNUL]HJLUPLúWLU Savran, 1988: 25
(45) 'Q\DHNRQRPLOHULQGHJ|UOHQ EX KÕ]OÕ E\PH YH UHIDK G|QHPL EX G|QHPGH NHVLQWL\H X÷UDPÕú YH NDSLWDOL]PLQ µDOWÕQoD÷¶ÕFLGGLLNWLVDGLNoOPHOHUYHNUL]OHUOHVRQEXOPXúWXU Yeldan, 2002: 6). 'Q\D HNRQRPLVLQGHNL EXQDOÕPÕQ YH ONHOHUGHNL NUL]OHULQ VRQXFXQGD GúHQ NDU RUDQODUÕQÕQ DUWÕUÕOPDVÕ GQ\D SD]DUODUÕQÕQ JHQLúOHWLOPHVL PDO YH VHUPD\H DNÕPODUÕQÕQ |QQGHNL HQJHOOHULQ NDOGÕUÕOPDVÕ YH VHUEHVWOHúWLULOPHVLQH GD\DQDQ \HQL ELU SD]DU DQOD\ÕúÕ RUWD\D oÕNPÕúWÕU Savran, 1988
(46) 2OXúWXUXODQ EX \HQL LNWLVDGL pazar yapÕVÕ%UHWWRQ:RRGVVLVWHPLQLQ|QHUGL÷LVDELWNXUUHMLPLQLQVUGUOPHVLLOH ED÷GDúPDPÕúWÕU %XQXQ VRQXQGD LVWLNUDUOÕ G|YL] NXUODUÕ VHUPD\H DNÕPODUÕQÕQ VÕQÕUODQGÕUÕOPDVÕ YH WDP LVWLKGDP JLEL VRV\DO UHIDK SROLWLNDODUÕ ]HULQH LQúD HGLOPLú olan Bretton Woods VLVWHPLQLQ o|Nú\OHHVQHN G|YL]NXUX \HQL NXUVLVWHPL RODUDN NDEXOHGLOPLúWLU $OWÕRN ). ¶OL \ÕOODUÕQ VRQODUÕQD NDGDU DOW\DSÕVÕ KD]ÕUODQDQ \HQL LNWLVDGL VLVWHP NDSLWDOLVW VLVWHPLQ \DúDGÕ÷Õ NUL]GHQ oÕNPDVÕ LoLQ YH D\UÕFD JHOLúPHNWH RODQ ONelere GHE\PHYHNDONÕQPDQÕQWHPHO\ROXRODUDNKD\DWDJHoLULOPLúWLU7HPHOGD\DQD÷ÕQÕ neo-NODVLN LNWLVDWWDQ DODQ VRQUDVÕQGDNL ILQDQVDO VHUEHVWOHúPH JHOLúPHNWH RODQ ONHOHULQ \HWHUVL] WDVDUUXID VDKLS ROGX÷XQX YH EXQD ED÷OÕ RODUDN GD GúN E\PH geroHNOHúWLUGL÷LQL VDYODPÕúWÕU %X VHEHSOH GÕú WDVDUUXIODUÕQ ONHOHUH DNWDUÕODELOPHVL LoLQ JHOLúPHNWH RODQ ONHOHU Lo YH GÕú SL\DVDODUÕQÕ VHUEHVWOHúWLUPHOL YH SL\DVDODUÕQ HWNLQOL÷LQLQVD÷ODPDVÕ|QHULOPLúWLU%|\OHFHVHUPD\HQLQGQ\DSD]DUODUÕQGDNLVHUEHVW doODúÕPÕQD GX\GX÷X LKWL\DFÕ NDUúÕODPD\D \|QHOLN SROLWLNDODUÕQ \DYDúoD X\JXODPD\D. 9.
(47) NRQXOPDVÕ ILQDQVDO VHUPD\HQLQ XOXVODU DUDVÕ GRODúÕPÕQÕ GD JLGHUHN KÕ]ODQGÕUPÕúWÕU (<ÕOGÕ]R÷OX 1996: 11). %WQEXJHOLúPHOHUHSDUDOHO olarak ¶OHUGHQLWLEDUHQELU\DQGDJHOLúPLú ONHOHULo ILQDQVYHVHUPD\HSL\DVDODUÕQÕEWQGHQHWLPYHNÕVÕWODPDODUGDQNDOGÕUPÕú GL÷HU \DQGDQ GD JHOLúPHNWH RODQ ONHOHUL NHQGL VHUPD\HOHULQLQ LKWL\DoODUÕQD J|UH WDVDUÕPODPÕúODUGÕU (Kazgan, 1988: 124). %X ED÷ODPGD JHOLúPHNWH RODQ ONHOHULQ paralDUÕNRQYHUWLEOKDOHJHWLULOPLúYHILQDQVDOSL\DVDODUGDWDPVHUEHVWOLNVD÷ODQPÕúWÕU )LQDQVDO VHUEHVWOHúPHQLQ JHOLúPHVLQGH YH KÕ]OD X\JXODQPDVÕQGD ¶OHUGH GúHQ NDU RUDQODUÕ QHGHQL\OH µGH÷HUVL]OHúHQ¶ JHOLúPLú ONH VHUPD\HOHULQLQ \HQL YH NDUOÕ \DWÕUÕPDODQODUÕQDGX\GX÷XJHUHNVLQLPWHPHOHWNHQRODUDN|QSODQDoÕNPÕúWÕU6HUEHVW SL\DVD VLVWHPLQLQ LoLQH GúW÷ NUL] XOXVDO VÕQÕUODU LoLQGH NDSDOÕ NDOPÕú RODQ VHUPD\HQLQKÕ]ODXOXVODUDUDVÕSD]DUODUDJLUPHVLQLJHUHNWLUPLúYHNDUOÕOÕNVRUXQXQXEX DQODPGDo|]PúWU 'Q\D¶GD ILQDQVDOVHUEHVWOHúPHKDUHNHWOHULNDEDFDG|UWG|QHPHD\UÕúWÕUÕODrak incelenebilir%LULQFLG|QHPGH -
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(59) ¶OL \ÕOODUÕQ RUWDODUÕQD NDGDU JHOLúPHNWH RODQ ONHOHULQ ELUoR÷XQGD X\JXODQDQ .H\QHV\HQ \D GD PGDKDOHFL LNWLVDW SROLWLNDODUÕ ILQDQV SL\DVDODUÕQÕ GD EDVNÕDOWÕQGDWXWPXúWXU<DWÕUÕPODUÕDUWÕUPDNLoLQEDVNÕDOWÕQGDWXWXODQIDL]RUDQODUÕYH ILQDQV SL\DVDODUÕ KHP JHOLúPHNWH RODQ ONHOHUGH ROPDVÕ JHUHNHQ GHQJH ILQans SL\DVDVÕ J|VWHUJHOHULQLQ ROXúPDVÕQÕ HQJHOOHPLú KHP GH \XUWLoL WDVDUUXI YH \DWÕUÕP PHNDQL]PDODUÕQÕQ oDOÕúPDVÕQÕ HQJHOOH\HUHN ND\QDN GD÷ÕOÕPÕQÕ ROXPVX] HWNLOH\HUHN LNWLVDGLE\PH\L\DYDúODWPÕúWÕU 8oDN 2006: 54). McKinnon-6KDZ \DNODúÕPÕ JHOLúPHNWH RODQ ONHOHUGH X\JXODQDQ ILQDQVDO EDVNÕ SROLWLNDODUÕQÕQ IDL] RUDQODUÕ YH G|YL] NXUODUÕ JLEL |QHPOL ILQDQVDO J|VWHUJHOHUL ER]GX÷XQX ILQDQVDO LúOHPOHUH NRQX ROPD\DQ YDUOÕNODUOD NDUúÕODúWÕUÕOGÕ÷ÕQGD ILQDQVDO VLVWHPLQ HWNLQOL÷LQL \DYDúODWWÕ÷ÕQÕ YH LNWLVDGL E\PH\L GúUG÷Q |QH VUPHNWHGLU $\UÕFD ILQDQVDO EDVNÕODPDQÕQ ELU VRQXFX RODUDN ILQDQVDO DoÕGDQ EDVNÕ. 12.
(60) DOWÕQGDWXWXODQELUHNRQRPLGHIDL]RUDQODUÕQÕQGHQJHIDL]RUDQÕQÕQDOWÕQGDEÕUDNÕOPDVÕ WDVDUUXIODUÕQ YH EDQND PHYGXDWODUÕQÕQ D]DOPDVÕQD \DWÕUÕPODUÕQ LVH optimal G]H\LQGHQX]DNELUúHNLOGHJHUoHNOHúPHVLQH\RODoWÕ÷ÕVDYXQXOPDNWDGÕU2OXúDQEX LNWLVDGL DNVDPDODUD NDUúÕ o|]P |QHULVL LVH ILQDQVDO SL\DVDODUÕQ NRúXOVX] VHUEHVWOHúWLULOPHVLGLU )LQDQVDO RODUDN VHUEHVWOHúHQ SL\DVDODUGD LVH GHQJH IDL] RUDQÕ piyasD GLQDPLNOHULQH J|UH ROXúDFD÷Õ LoLQ PDOL EDVNÕ X\JXODPDODUÕ YH NUHGL PLNWDU VÕQÕUODPDODUÕVRQEXODFDNYHLNWLVDGLNDUDUODUSL\DVDúDUWODUÕQGDVHUEHVWoHYHULOHFHNWLU Neo-klasik McKinnon-6KDZ KLSRWH]L ILQDQVDO RODUDN GÕúD DoÕODQ JHOLúPHNWH RODQ ONHOHULQ HNRQRPLOHULQGH ILQDQVDO DUDo oHúLWOLOL÷LQLQ WDVDUUXI YH \DWÕUÕPODUÕQÕ DUWÕUDUDNLNWLVDGLE\PH\HNDWNÕGDEXOXQDFD÷ÕQÕVDYXQXU7HPHOLQL|GQoYHULOHELOLU fonlar teorisinden alan McKinnon-6KDZ \DNODúÕPÕQGD VHUPD\H KDUHNHWOHULQLQ ]HULQGHNL HQJHOOHULQ NDOGÕUÕOPDVÕ\OD VHUPD\HQLQ J|UHFH ERO DPD ND]DQFÕQÕQ D] ROGX÷X \HUGHQ VHUPD\HQLQ NÕW IDNDW JHWLULVLQLQ \NVHN ROGX÷X ONHOHUH ND\DUDN ILQDQVDO GHULQOL÷L DUWÕUDFD÷Õ J|Uú RUWD\D NRQXOPDNWDGÕU %XQXQ VRQXFXQGD ONHOHU DUDVÕQGDNLJHWLULOHUHED÷OÕROXúDQIDL]RUDQODUÕHúLWOHQHFHNYHGHLoWDVDUUXIODUÕ\HWHUVL] RODQ JHOLúPHNWH RODQ ONHOHU LNWLVDGL E\PH LoLQ ND\QDN VD÷ODPÕú RODFDNODUGÕU ($WDPWUN 2007: 78). 0F.LQQRQYH6KDZWDUDIÕQGDQILQDQVDOEDVNÕIDL]RUDQÕYHG|YL]NXUXQXGD LoHUHQ ILQDQVDO IL\DWODUÕQ ER]XNOXNODUÕ RODUDN WDQÕPODQPDNWDGÕU %X LNWLVDWoÕODU D\QÕ ]DPDQGD EDVNÕODQPÕú SDUD VLVWHPLQLQ \XUWLoL VHUPD\H SL\DVDVÕQÕ SDUoDODGÕ÷ÕQÕ LGGLD HWPHNWHGLUOHU %DVNÕQÕQ ELU VRQXFX RODUDN UHVPL ILQDQVDO \DSÕODU VD\HVLQGH |GQo YHULOHELOLUIRQDNÕPODUÕD]DOWÕOÕU|]HODPDoOÕNUHGLWD\ÕQODPDVÕPLNWDUÕQHGHQL\OHIDL] RUDQODUÕ IDUNOÕ ERUoOXODU DUDVÕQGD GH÷LúLU YH RWR-ILQDQVPDQ oRN ]RU ELU KDOH JHOLU %XQD HN RODUDN EDQNDFÕOÕN VHNW|U GÕúÕQGDNL ILQDQVDO GHULQOLN ED]Õ ILUPDODU YH \NVHN HQIODV\RQ QHGHQL\OH HQJHOOHQLU YH GÕú ND\QDN DNÕPODUÕ ELOH EHNOHQPH\HQ G|YL] NXU GH÷LúLPOHUL YH LVWLNUDUVÕ] \XUWLoL VHUPD\H SL\DVDVÕ QHGHQL\OH \DWÕUÕPODUÕ WHúYLNHWPH\HELOLU Elhan, 1997: 8). 6KDZ
(61) ¶DJ|UHILQDQVDOEDVNÕ LNWLVDGLPL\RSOX÷DQHGHQRODQ \DQOÕú ELU SODQÕQ SDUoDVÕ RODUDN JHQLú |OoGH EHQLPVHQPLúWLU YH JHOLúPHNWH RODQ ONHOHULQ V|PUJHFL GHQH\LPOHULQH NDUúÕ WHSNLQLQ ELU SDUoDVÕ RODUDN RUWD\D oÕNDQ VDI ELU JHOLúPHVWUDWHMLVLGLU%XVHEHSWHQGROD\Õ GDPPNQROGX÷XQFDKÕ]OÕELUúHNLOGHEX X\JXODPDODUGDQ YD]JHoLOPHVL JHUHNPHNWHGLU 6KDZ¶ ÕQ VDYÕQD J|UH ILQDQVDO. 13.
(62) VHUEHVWOHúPHLúOHPPDOL\HWOHULQLHQD]DLQGLUHQHWNLOLELU\DSÕVDOG]HQOHPH\DUDWWÕ÷Õ LoLQILQDQVDOGHULQOLNVUHNOL\HQLOHQHQJHOLúPH\H|QFONHWPHNWHGLU \ÕOÕQGD 0F.LQQRQ 6KDZ¶ÕQ J|UúOHULQLQ \DQÕQGD PGDKaleci SROLWLNDODUÕQ EHOLUVL]OL÷H YH E|OQPú VHUPD\H YH HPHN SL\DVDODUÕQD GD QHGHQ RODFD÷ÕQÕEHOLUWPLúWLU%DúNDELULIDGH\OHEXEHQ]HULNWLVDGLNDUDUELULPOHULEHQ]HUPDO YH KL]PHWOHU LoLQ IDUNOÕ IL\DWODUOD NDUúÕODúDFDNODUGÕU 6HUPD\H SL\DVDVÕQGDNL EX paroDODQPD|]HOOLNOHHPH÷LQYHWRSUD÷ÕQ\DQOÕúNXOODQÕPÕQDQHGHQRODFDNWÕU%|\OHFH VHUPD\H SL\DVDVÕQGDNL X\JXQ SROLWLNDODU LNWLVDGL JHOLúPH JLULúLPL YH JHQHO ELU VHUEHVWOHúPH|QFHVLQGHROPDOÕGÕU 0F.LQQRQ¶XQ ELU EDúND NDYUDPODúWÕUPDVÕQD J|UH ILQDQVDO RODUDN VÕ÷ HNRQRPLOHUGHNL JHOLUVÕQÕIODUÕYHWDVDUUXI-\DWÕUÕP VUHoOHULQHL\L WDQÕPODQPÕúQHGH X]PDQODúPÕúWÕU 'DKDVÕ GúN IDL] RUDQODUÕ G]HQOHQPLú ELU SL\DVDGDNL WDVDUUXIODUÕ HQJHOOHGL÷L LoLQ \HWHUOL WDVDUUXI HNVLNOL÷L QHGHQL\OH \DWÕUÕPODU FD\GÕUÕOPDNWDGÕU $\UÕFD EDVNÕODQPÕú HNRQRPLOHUGHNL \NVHN DVJDUL FUHWOHU LOH EHUDEHU VHUPD\H HPH÷HQLVSHWHQJ|UHFHGDKDNÕWROVDELOHVHUPD\H-\R÷XQUHWLPGHNL\DWÕUÕPPLNWDUÕ DUWDU )LQDQVDO SL\DVDODUÕQ VHUEHVWOHúPHVL LOH ELUOLNWH GúN WDVDUUXI YH \DWÕUÕP problemleri tDUWÕúPDVÕ]ELUúHNLOGHD]DOWÕOÕU 0F.LQQRQD\UÕFDSDUDYHIL]LNVHOVHUPD\HDUDVÕQGDELUWDPDPOD\ÕFÕOÕNLOLúNLVL NXUDQ ELU PRGHO GH ROXúWXUPDNWDGÕU 3DUD DU]ÕQÕQ WDVDUUXI YH \DWÕUÕP NDUDUODUÕ ]HULQGH ELULQFL GHUHFHGHQ ELU HWNL ROXúWXUDFD÷ÕQÕ EHOLUWPHNWHGLU 6KDZ LVH GL÷HU \DQGDQ ELU ERUo DUDFÕOÕN PRGHOL |QHUPHNWHGLU 6KDZ NHQGL PRGHOLQGH ILQDQVDO VHUEHVWOHúPHQLQ WDVDUUXIoXODU YH \DWÕUÕPFÕODU DUDVÕQGD JHQLúOHWLOPLú ELU ILQDQVDO DUDFÕOÕ÷D QHGHQ RODFD÷ÕQÕ YH ILQDQVDO JHOLúPH\OH VRQXoODQDQ WDVDUUXI YH \DWÕUÕP WHúYLNOHULQLDUWÕUDFD÷ÕQÕRUWD\DNR\PDNWDGÕU%XQXQODELUOLNWHKHULNL\D]DUGDLNWLVDGL E\PHQLQ IDL] RUDQÕ WDYDQ IL\DWODUÕQÕQ NDOGÕUÕODUDN VHoLFL \D GD GR÷UXGDQ NUHGL SURJUDPODUÕQÕQ WHUN HGLOHUHN ILQDQVDO VLVWHPLQ VHUEHVW JLULú NRúXOODUÕ DOWÕQGDNL rekDEHWHWDELWXWXOPDVÕQÕVD÷OD\DUDNDUWÕUÕODELOHFH÷LJ|UúQNDEXOHWPHNWHGLUOHU 0F.LQQRQYH6KDZKLSRWH]LQLELUWDNÕPYDUVD\ÕPODUDGD\DQGÕUPDNWDGÕU%X YDUVD\ÕPODU L
(63) LNWLVDGL E\PHQLQ WDVDUUXI 6
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(66) \DWÕUÕPODUÕQ UHHO IDL] RUDQÕQÕQ QHJDWLI ELU IRQNVL\RQX ROGX÷X (r) [I=I(r), Ir<0] ) iii) tasarruflar sadece faiz RUDQÕQGDQGH÷LOD\QÕ]DPDQGDXOXVDOHNRQRPLOHULQE\PHRUDQÕQGDQGDHWNLOHQGL÷L. 14.
(67) ( (g) [S=S(r,g), Sr>0; Sg>0] ) YHLY
(68) NODVLNLNWLVDGÕQYDUVD\ÕPODUÕoHUoHYHVLQGH|QFHNL WDVDUUXIODUÕQ\DWÕUÕPODULoLQJHUHNOLROGX÷XúHNOLQGHGLU <DSÕVDOFÕ<DNODúÕP McKinnon-6KDZ¶XQ RUWD\D NR\GX÷X 1HR-.ODVLN ILQDQVDO VHUEHVWOHúPH WHRULVLQH NDUúÕ HQ VLVWHPOL YH WXWDUOÕ HOHúWLULOHU 7D\ORU |QFO÷QGH \DSÕVDOFÕ RNXO WDUDIÕQGDQ JHOLúWLULOPLúWLU <DSÕVDOFÕ \DNODúÕP JHOLúPHNWH RODQ ONHOHULQ JHUL NDOPDVÕQÕQWHPHOQHGHQOHULQLDUDúWÕUPÕúYHEXONHOHUGHNLSL\DVDODUÕQHWNLQYHYHULPOL oDOÕúPDGÕ÷ÕQÕRUWD\DNR\PXúWXU Finansal basNÕQÕQ NDOGÕUÕOPDVÕ VRQXFXQGD SL\DVDODUÕQ VHUEHVWOHúWLULOPHVL |QHULVLED]ÕJHOLúPHNWHRODQONHOHUGHEHNOHQHQVRQXoODUÕGR÷XUPDPÕúWÕU<DSÕVDOFÕ \DNODúÕPGD GD EHOLUWLOGL÷L JLEL JHOLúPHNWH RODQ ONHOHULQ ILQDQVDO YH HNRQRPLN \DSÕODUÕ VWDQGDUW GH÷LOGLU YH WP ONHOHUH D\QÕ UHoHWHOHULQ X\JXODQPDVÕ EDúDUÕOÕ VRQXoODUYHUPHPHNWHGLU(Taylor, 1983: 36). <DSÕVDOFÕ \DNODúÕP JHOLúPHNWH RODQ ONHOHUGHNL LVWLNUDUVÕ]OÕ÷ÕQ YH NUL]OHULQ QHGHQLQLWRSOXPXROXúWXUDQLNWLVDGL-sosyal-NXUXPVDOSL\DVD\DSÕODUÕQGDDUDPDNWDGÕU 6YDQ:LMQEHUJHQ SL\DVDGDNL DU] YH WDOHS HVQHNOLNOHULQH ED÷OÕ RODUDN LVWLNUDUGDNL D]DOÕúÕQ YH\D DUWÕúÕQ HQIODV\RQ ]HULQGHNL HWNLVLQL RUWD\D NR\DUNHQ /7D\ORU EDQNDFÕOÕNVLVWHPLGÕúÕQGDNLSL\DVDODU]HULQGHQLNWLVDGLHWNL\DUDWDQIRQODUÕQDQDOL] YHVRQXoODUÕQÕ|QHoÕNDUPDNWDGÕU %XWHRULN YDUVD\ÕPGDQ \RODoÕNDQ7D\ORU|QFO÷QGHNL \DSÕVDOFÕ \DNODúÕP JHOLúPHNWH RODQ ONHOHULQ ILQDQVDO \DSÕODUÕQÕQ IDUNOÕ ROGX÷XQX YH 0F.LQQRQ-Shaw KLSRWH]LQLQ EX ONHOHUGH oDOÕúPD\DFD÷ÕQÕ EHOLUWPHNWHGLU <DSÕVDOFÕODU 0F.LQQRn6KDZ KLSRWH]LQLQ JHOLúPHNWH RODQ ONHOHUGH ILQDQVDO VHUEHVWOHúPH VRQUDVÕ \DWÕUÕPODUÕQQLWHOLNYHQLFHOLNRODUDNDUWÕúÕQDED÷OÕRODUDNLNWLVDGLE\PH\LVD÷OD\DQ |QHULVLQH ILQDQVDO VHUEHVWOHúPHQLQ LNWLVDGL E\PH\L DUWÕUPD\DFD÷ÕQÕ DNVLQH D]DOWDFD÷ÕQÕ YH HQIODV\RQLVW ELU HWNL \DUDWDFD÷ÕQÕ VDYODPÕúODUGÕU )LQDQVDO VHUEHVWOHúPH VRQUDVÕQGD \NVHOHFHN RODQ IDL] RUDQODUÕ ILUPDODUÕQ UHWLP YH \|QHWLP PDOL\HWOHULQLDUWÕUDFDNYHEXDUWÕúJHOLúPHNWHRODQONHOHUGHNLoR÷XSL\DVDGDNLPDUNup fiyatlama stratejisi nedeQL\OH IL\DWODUD \DQVÕ\DFD÷ÕQGDQ HQIODV\RQLVW ELU HWNLQLQ \DUDWÕODFD÷ÕGúQOPHNWHGLU. 15.
(69) Neo-Klasik McKinnon-6KDZ \DNODúÕPÕ ILQDQVDO VHUEHVWOHúPHQLQ WHPHO EDúDUÕVÕQÕ WDVDUUXIODUÕ UHWNHQ ROPD\DQ DNWLIOHUGHQ EDQND PHYGXDW VLVWHPLQLQ LoHULVLQH JLUPHVLQH ED÷ODPÕúWÕU %XQXQ NDUúÕVÕQGD \DSÕVDOFÕ \DNODúÕP LVH ULVNWHQ NDoÕQDQ \DWÕUÕPFÕODUÕQ EX SRUWI|\ GH÷LúLPLQL \DSDPDPDODUÕ GXUXPXQGD ILQDQVDO VHUEHVWOHúPHQLQ\DWÕUÕPODUÕYHE\PH\LX\DUPDGDEDúDUÕVÕ]RODFD÷ÕQÕVDYODPDNWDGÕU (Rodoplu, 2004: 86). McKinnon-Shaw hipotH]LQH NDUúÕ \DSÕVDOFÕ \DNODúÕPÕQ WHPHO HOHúWLUL QRNWDODUÕQGDQ ELULVL GH |UJWOHQPLú IRQ SL\DVDVÕQÕQ \NVHN RUDQODUGD UH]HUY WXWPDVÕGÕU*HOLúPHNWHRODQONHOHUGHNLEDQNDODUGD\NVHNRUDQODUGDYHQDNLWRODUDN UH]HUY WXWXOPDNWDGÕU 7XWXODQ UH]HUYOHULQ PLNWDUÕ QH NDGDU \NVHN ROXUVD EX UH]HUYOHULQIRQSL\DVDVÕQGDNL PDOL\HWOHULGHRNDGDU \NVHNROXU 'LQo
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