Introduction
In this study, the production and water consumption impacts of the year 2018 investment and income targets of Turkey’s tourism industry is explored through the use of input-output model. In this respect, the input-output table published by TURKSTAT for 2012 is used and total demand, output and water use of tourism industry is obtained through industrial aggregation. In the analyses, tourism industry’
place in water resources and water consumption is considered in relation to the linkages with the other industries in Turkey which is as a water scarce country and in which the volume and quality of water is decreasing due to global warming and urbanization.
Method
This study uses traditional input-output modelling to evaluate impacts of investment and income targets of tourism industry on the sectorial water usage and industrial outputs. The analysis use both the open model (Model A) which excludes
the household category and the closed model (Model B) which contains the category of households as a sector of production.
Two scenarios are identified to analyze impacts of investment and income changes of tourism industry on water consumption and production of sectors.
Scenario 1: According to 2017, there is a 13.6 per cent increase in private
sector tourism investment expenditure and a 3.6 per cent decrease in public investment expenditure, which is expected to occur as a final demand shock in 2018.
Scenario 2: 68.13 per cent increase in foreign tourism revenues as a result of
increase in exports in 2018.
Results
According to the scenario 1, the highest increase in output is realized in the tourism sector with 3.74 per cent in the model A. Other sectors that follow the tourism sector are plastic, agriculture, fisheries and chemistry, respectively. Examining the model B for the scenario 1, the maximum output increase is still seen 51.69 per cent in the tourism sector, followed by plastics, textile, agriculture, fisheries, trade and press and publishing. The highest increase in the output of tourism industry is also realized as 2.09 per cent in the model A for the scenario 2. Plastics, agriculture, fisheries, chemistry and education services sectors follow the tourism sector, respectively. According to the scenario 2, the model B where household expenditures are considered endogenous reveals that the tourism industry is the industry with the
highest rate of change in output with 49.99%, followed by the plastics, textile, agriculture, fisheries and trade sectors, respectively. The tourism sector has the highest increase in water usage in the model where households are considered exogeneous for scenario 1 with 3.72 percent. Following tourism, the industries with the largest increases in water use are plastic, agriculture, fisheries, chemistry, and education service sectors, in that order. In the same scenario, in the model where households are considered endogenous, the change in water consumption in the tourism sector, which has the highest percentage of water use, is achieved by 2.59 per cent. The plastics, agriculture, other services, fisheries and the chemical sector are followed.
The tourism sector has the highest increase in water usage with 2.07 percent for scenario 2 in the model where households are considered exogenous. The following sectors continue as plastics, agriculture, fisheries and chemistry. The highest water consumption change was experienced with 1.45 percent in the same scenario, in the model where households are considered endogenous. This is followed by plastics, agriculture, other services, fisheries, chemistry and education service sectors.
In both scenarios, total sectoral water consumption is about 37 billion m3 and 62 billion m3 for models where household consumption expenditures are considered exogenous and endogenous, respectively. In both cases, the share of total sectoral water use in total potential water is estimated as 33 percent in models where
households are treated as exogenous and 55 percent in models where households are treated as endogenous.
The tourism sector water consumption amounts show similarities in both scenarios in models in which household consumption expenditures are considered exogenous and endogenous. Water consumption in the tourism sector is 258 million m3 and 254 million m3 in exogenous models; 378 million m3 and 373 million m3 in endogenous models for scenario 1 and scenario 2 respectively. The ratio of these amounts in the total available potential water amount is 0.23 percent in exogenous models and 0.34 percent in endogenous models.
Conclusion
According to the findings of the analysis, the share of water consumption of the tourism sector in the total water consumption of Turkey is about 0,59 percent in the models which household consumption expenditures are considered exogenous and 0,86 percent in the models which household consumption expenditures are considered endogenous for both scenarios. While Turkey is one of the significant tourism destinations for northern and western Europa, she is also one of the poorest countries in terms of water. Within the framework of a comprehensive water management policy, solutions can be summarized as follows:
protection and distribution of surface and underground water resources
increasing the amount of green space by reducing concretion
providing investment benefits to the tourism sector for companies that use
water efficiently
raising awareness and training of tourism employees on water consumption
effectively
diversifying tourism supply and spreading it through four seasons, as well as distributing various activities across different geographical regions.