Disaster Risks of Bergama as Results of Hazard, Exposure and

Hazards defined for Bergama will be possibly turned disasters according to hazard, exposure and vulnerability assessments made by using available data. However, to assess disaster risks more accurately, there is a serious need to collect data to assess hazards, exposure and vulnerability of Bergama. Disaster risks were defined according to assessment made at previous titles.

Disasters affect natural and built environment, people and livelihood of Bergama.

There are deterioration of material, structure, integrity and authenticity of the city, natural environment risks; loss or injury of people (citizens, staff and visitor) life and loss or damage of livelihood caused by earthquake, river flood, urban flood, fire and mining/dam failure.

According to hazard, exposure and vulnerability assessments regarding stratification, population distribution and types of livelihoods, disaster risks are higher at the area defined as 3^rd degree archeological + urban site.

In order to imagine disaster effects and predict timing for next DRM steps, disaster scenarios should be written. There may be a disaster that originated one hazards (just earthquake), or two or more (earthquake and fire at the same time) and a disaster with secondary hazard (earthquake may cause flood by destructing Kestel Dam afterwards). Scenarios should include these options and predict how the city, its OUV and integrity will be affected.

Disaster scenarios can be written to elaborate all kind of disaster risks by defining possible outcomes regarding hazard characteristics, exposed objects and vulnerabilities of them. For example: In case of an earthquake, whole settlement area of Bergama within its people and livelihoods will be exposed to it. As the most stratified area, 3^rd degree archeological + urban site will be the most vulnerable area to earthquake. Children, elderly people and disable people among the inhabitants, visitors and staff will be the most vulnerable people group to earthquake. Tourism and

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trade that located mostly at the site will be affected. Moreover, as defined (Table 4.1), earthquake as a natural hazard may trigger human-induced hazards like mining induced pollution, dam induced flood, fire due to electricity. Therefore, although timber frame structures not categorized as very vulnerable to earthquake can be categorized as vulnerable to fire. Agriculture and natural environment will be exposed to these secondary hazards also. Disaster scenarios like the one created for earthquake should be created according to each hazard to take necessary measure following defined DRM steps.

For risk evaluation and then to decide accordingly how to prioritize strategies regarding risk management and risk reduction the level of risk can be measured. For comparison among different hazards occurred in different places in changing scales (it may be for earthquake in the whole city or just for a museum or for flood in the whole city or just for a museum), the equation can be defined as;

“Level of risk: probability (A) + consequences (B) + loss of value (C)”¹⁶⁵

To obtain the level of risk for earthquake¹⁶⁶ (the magnitude of earthquake risk to all over the city), the probability of earthquake (A) is 10% (according to GFDRR calculations); the consequences (B) is expected to be severe in terms of human lives, their livelihoods (for example in tourism and commerce), their physical environment

165 As mentioned under the title “2.5.2. The Approach of the Manual”;

A represents the probability of disaster and defined as ratio, for example the probability of a heavy rainfall is high while the probability is low for an earthquake that happens once in every fifty years.

B represents the severity of consequences for WHS and its components, landscapes, including human lives and their physical environment with livelihoods and it is defined as scale of 0 to 1, for example 0 stands for no consequence while 1 stands for severe consequences. (quantitative impact)

C represents the consequences in terms of ‘loss of value’. While some consequences can be easily restored, others may affect outstanding universal value of the WHS irreplaceably. C defined as ratio, for example 100 percent is for total or almost total loss of value, while 0.01 percent for miniscule loss of value. (qualitative impact)

166 According to literature and site observations.

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(infrastructure, living places etc.), cultural heritage sites (including acropolis), so the city will be affected socially, physically and economically; the loss of value (C) is the rate of irreversible damages that is expected to be high because it is a heritage place that has OUV (the core zone of WH management area covers approximately more than half of the city).

Level of risk = 0.1 + 0.8 + 0.6 = 1.5

To obtain the level of risk for river flood¹⁶⁷ (the magnitude of river flood risk to all over the city), the probability of river flood (A) is 20% (according to GFDRR calculations); the consequences (B) is expected to be mild in terms of human lives, their livelihoods (for example in tourism and commerce), their physical environment, cultural heritage sites located in the buffer zones of the river (for example, acropolis will not be affected due to its position); the loss of value (C) is the rate of irreversible damages that is expected to be high because it is a heritage place that has OUV (the core zone of WH management area covers approximately more than half of the city).

Level of risk = 0.2 + 0.3 + 0.6 = 1.1

According to the results; although the probability of occurring an earthquake in Bergama is lower than a river flood, the level of risk for earthquake is higher than river flood. This calculation should be done with accurate data and for all defined hazards for all layers in Bergama. Therefore, while preparing DRM plan, intervention priority should be taken into consideration¹⁶⁸.

167 According to literature and site observations.

168In order to calculate “the level of risk”, the equation that given by the manual has no methodology to define B (“the severity of consequences”) and C (“loss of value”) numerically. Also, saying “the level of risk” may be understood as the risk calculation that defined as “Hazards x Vulnerability”, therefore getting the result by addition rather than multiplying should be named differently; the risk index is proposed. The index can only be used for comparison the possible impact of hazards to prioritize DRM interventions.

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In order to assess the risks in a more detailed manner, geographical information (as covering the boundary of the site with its buffer zone), geological, meteorological, hydrological information of the area should be assessed. In addition, as each property’s needs are different regarding its vulnerabilities against disasters, they should be identified and assessed individually by taking into consideration their social, economic, managerial and physical environment that they can change through time.