Tarım Ürünleri Pazarlaması ve Bitki Deseni Planlaması ile Pazarlama ve Bitki Deseni Planlaması Çalışmasının Entegrasyonu 5. Cilt Ek A-B-C

(1)

TARIM ÜRÜNLERİ PAZARLAMASI VE

BİTKİ DESENİ PLANLAMASI İLE

P AZARLAMA VE BİTKİ DESENİ PLANLAMASI

ÇALI~MASININ ENTEGRASYO NU

(2)

T. c.

BAŞBAKANLIK

CAP

GÜNEYDOCU AHADOLU PROJESI BÖLGE KALKlNMA I DARES I B AŞKA N L I G I

TARIM ÜRÜNLERİ PAZARLAMASI VE

BİTKİ DESENİ PLANLAMASI İLE

PAZARLAMA VE BİTKİ DESENİ PLANLAMASI

ÇALI~MASININ ENTEGRASYON ~

^.^T BAŞ BA^T^.K^CA^.N L 1 K

TIP

AŞ Tarım-

Turizm

- Inşaat

Pazarlama ve Ticaret A.Ş.

Ankara-Turkey

V. CİLT

EkA-B-C

AGUSTOS 1992 • A.ı'IKARA

GM !OL GE KAl KINilA o\ IDAriESI 8AŞKANLI~I OÖK\IMANIAS fON ,_E~~EZI

YER NO 1 b- A

DEMiRBAŞ

- ~ ı-~1-

NO

T. C.

BAŞBA KANL IK

GAP

B lllG: KALKIH.'.IA i) .ml BA ŞKANtl~l Dö:<U.,\ ' S

o.~

M E RKEZI Ho :_ 4 . . ... ··---·-··· -

AFC Agriculture and Food International Consulting GmbH

Bonn -Germanv

(3)

GAP Pazarlama ve Ürün Deseni

Çalışması

UZMAN LİSTESİ

Çalışma

Yöneticileri

Prof Dr. W. Henrichsmeyer, Bonn Üniversitesi-Bonn

Prof Dr. H. Kasnakoğlu, Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi-Ankara

Uzman lar

ProfDr. AH. Akder, Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi-Ankara Y. Aydos, To prak

Uzmanı

ve Kartograf-Ankara

Dr. M. lleyribey, Ankara Üniversitesi-Ankara Dr. E. Çakmak, Bilkent Üniversitesi-Ankara K. Çaprazlı, Bonn Üniversitesi-Bonn W. Cellarius, Pazarlama

Uzmanı-Hollanda

Dr. F. Christoph, Teknik Üniversite-Darmstadt Prof. Dr. N. Erk, Çuk'Llrova Üniversitesi-Adana Prof. Dr. O. Erkan, Çukurova Ü niversitesi-Adana Prof. Dr. M. Fisunoğlu, Çukurova Üniversitesi-Adana Dr. M. Güler, Agrono mist-Ankara

Prof. Dr. O. Gürsoy, Çukurova Üniversitesi-Adana Prof. Dr. J. Henze, Bonn Üniversitesi-Bonn

Dr. L. Kersten, Paza r

Ara§tırma

Enstitüsü-Braunschwcig Dr. E. Krebs, AFC and Bonn Ünive rsitesi-Bonn K. Müller, Bonn Ünive rsitesi-Bonn

H. Zielenski, Sulama

Uzmanı-Almanya

(4)

GAP Pazarlama ve Ünin Deseni Çalışm ası İçindekiler

CİLT!

YÖNETİCİ ÖZETİ

1. Ça lı§manın Amaçla rı

2. Te m e l Mode lie rne

Yakla§ımı

3. Geçmi§te E ri§ile n ve Yeni Durum

3.1 T ürk Ta rım Ürünle rinin Ulu sla rarası Tica reti 3.2 GAP Bölgesinde ve T ürkiye'd e Ta rımsal Ü retim 4. GAP Sula ma Projele ri

5. Dünya

Pazarlarındaki

Geli§meler

5.1 "Dünya Ticaret M odeli"nin Ö zeJlikle ri 5.2 Dünya Pazarları Sen aryol arı

5.3 Model So nuç la rı

5.4 Türkiye Aç ısından Değerlend irme

6. GAP Bö lgesi ve Türkiye'de Tarımsa l Üre timin G eli§imi

6.1 GAP Bölgesi ve Türkiye Tarı msa l Ü retimin G eli§imi 6.2 TURGAP

Senaryoları

6.3 Model

Sonuçları

ve Türkiye

Açısından Değerlendirilmesi

6.3.1 2010

Yılı

Te me l Proje ksiyon u 6.3.2 T U RGAP

Senaryoları

7. Paza rla ma

7.1 Pa zarla ma Sistemle ri ve Stratejileri 7.2 Pa zarla ma a lt

Yapısı

8. So nuçla r, Öneril er ve İleri Bak:ı§

(5)

GAP Pazarlama ve Ürün Deseni

Çalışması İçindekiler

CİLT ll

GAP BÖLGESİ, TÜRKİYE VE DÜNYADA TARIM -TEM EL VERİ LER-

ı. GİRİŞ

1.

ı Çalı§manm Amacı

1. ı . ı Tarım Ürün le ri P azarla ma Ara§ tırması 1. ı . 2 Ürün D eseninin Pla nla mas ı

ı.ı.3 Tarım sal Pa zarla ma ve Ü rü n Deseni Ça lı§mal arının B ü tünle§ tirilmesi

1.2 İncelemenin K avram ve Yö ntemsel Yakla§ımı

1.2.

ı

Bi rbirine

Bağ1mlılık

1.2.2 Positif

Yakla§ırn

1.2.3 Modelle rin

Canlı Tutulması

1.2 .4 Mode lle r

2. DÜ YA TÜRKİYE VE GAP BÖLGESİNDE TARIM SEKT ÖRÜ 2.1 Dünya

Tarım Pazarlarının

Ge li§imi

2.1.1 D ünya Paza rla rındaki Geli§melerin Genel Çizgile ri 2. 1.2 Tü rk Tarım Ü rünlerinin Dı§ Tica re ti

2.2 GAP Bölges i ve Türkiye'de Tarımın Geli§imi

2.2.1

Tarımın

G eli§imi 2.2.2 Nüfus ve İ§gü cü 2 .2.3 Me ka nisazyon

2.2.4 Tarımsal Üre tim Değeri 2.2.5 T opra k

Kullanııru

2.2.6 GAP Bölgesinde H ayva n Üretimi

(6)

GAP Pazarlama ve Ürün Deseni

Çall§nıası İçindekiler

2.3 Güney Doğu Anadolu Projesi ve GAP Bölgesinde Sulama

Altyapısı

2.3.1 Genel Bala§

2.3.2 İkJjm

2.3 .3 Su

Kaynakları

2.3.4 DSİ Tarafından Önerilen Su Kaynakl arını Geli§tirme

Planları

2.3.5 GAP Bölgesinde Toprak

Yapısı

2.3.6 Kuru ve Sulu Alanlar İçin Planlanan Geli§meler

(7)

GAP Pazarlama ve Ürün Deseni

Çalışnıast

İçindekiler

CİLT I1I TARI M SAL PAZARLAMA

3. TARIMSAL PAZARLAl\l lA: ANALİZ VE ÖNERiLER

3.1 Varolan Tarımsal Pazarlama Sistamleri ve Paza rlama Altyapısı

3.1.1 Genel Özellikler 3.1.2 Hububat ve Baklagi!Jer 3.1.3 P amuk

3.1.4 Yağlı Tohumlar ve Ürünleri 3.1.5 Meyve,

Fındıfve

Sebze 3.1.6 Süt Ürünleri

3.1.7

Canlı

Hayvanlar ve Et

3.1.8 Kümes

Hayvanları

ve Yumurta 3.2 Varolan Tarımsa l İ§leme Endüstrisi

3.2.1 Genel Bilgi

3.2.2 Hammadde Temini 3.2.3 ÜrünDağıtııru

3.2.4 İ§leme Endüstrisinin Mali Fizibilitesi

3.3 Pazarlama Sistemleri ve Stratejileri İçin Sonuç ve Öneriler

3.3.1 Model

Hesapların Sonuçları

3.3.2 Pazarlama Sistemleri ve Stratejileri İçin Genel Öneriler

3.3.3 Hu bubat ve Bakiiyat Pazarlama Sistem leri ve Stratejileri

3.3.4 Pamuk İçin Pazarlama Sistemleri ve Stratejileri

3.3.5 Yağlı Tohumlar İçin Paza rlama Sistemlerive Stratejileri 3.3.6 Meyve Sebzeler İçin Paza rlama Sistemleri ve Stratejileri 3.3.7 Süt Ürünleri İçin Pazarlama Sistemle ri ve Stratejileri 3.3.8 Çiftlik Hayvanları ve Yumurta İçin Pazarlama

Sistemleri ve Stratejileri

3.3.9 Kümes HayvanJan ve Yumurta İçin Pazarlama Siste mleri ve Stratejileri

3.3.10 Balık İçin Pazarla ma Sistemleri ve Stratejileri

(8)

GAP Pazarlama ve Ün1n Deseni Çalışması İçindekiler

3.3.11 Şeker İ çin Paza rlama Sistem leri ve Stratejileri Üzeri ne Öneriler

3.4 Pazarlama

Altyapısı

3.4.1 Giri§

3.4.2 Tah ıl ve Bakliyat İçin Pazarlama Altyapısı 3.4.3 Pamuk İçin Pazarlama Altyapısı

3.4.4 Yağlı Tohumlar İçin Pazarlama Altyapısı 3.4.5 Meyve ve Sebze İçin Paza rlama Altyapısı 3.4.6 Süt İçin Paza rla ma Altyapısı

3.4.7 Ca nlı Hayvanlar ve Et İçin P azarlama Altyap ısı 3.4.8 Tavukçulukta Pazarlama

Altyapısı

3.4.9 Balık İç in Pazarlama Altyapısı 3.4.10 Şeker İçin Pazarlama Altyapısp

EK 3A: GAP BÖLGESİNDE PAZARLAMA ÖRGÜTÜ, İŞLEME VE PAZARLAMA YÖNTEMLERİ

İçindekiler

3A1 Hububat

3A2

Yağlı

Tohumlar

3A.3 Bakiiyat

3A.4 Yaz Sebzeleri

3A.5 Pamuk

3A.6 Bahçe Ürünleri

3A.7 Hayvansal Ürünler

(9)

GAP Pazarlama ve Ürün Deseni

Çalışması İçindekiler

CİLT IV

TARiMSAL ÜRETİM VE TİCARET

4. DÜNYA TİCARET MODELİ (WTM)

4.1 Dünya Ticaret Modelinin Teorik

Kavramları

4.1.1 Giri§

4.1.2 Dünya Ticaret Modelinin Temel Özellikleri 4.1.3 Bölgesel

Farklıla§ma

4.1.4 M al

Farklıla§ması

4.1.5 Modelin

Yapısı

4.2 Dünya Ticaret Modelinin

Tanımlanması

4.2.1 İstatistik Veriler 4.2.2 Esneklikler

4.2.3 Politika

Varsayımları

4.2.4 Eğilimlerdeki Geli§me 4.3 Dünya Ticaret Modelinin Veri

Tabanı

4.4 Dünya Ticaret Modelinin Sınanması ve İnce Ayarı

4.4.1 Model

Yapısının Planı

4.4.2 Veri

Tabanı

Sisteminin

Kurulması

4.4.3 Model Simulasyonları

4.5 Senaryolar ve Mod elin İ§leyi§i

4.5.1 Geri Pla n:

Uluslararası Tarım

Politikalan 4.5.2 Temel Senaryo

4.5.3 DÜNYA 1- Senaryos u: GATT Tam Liberalizasyon

4.5.4 DÜ YA: 2 Senaryosu: GATT Kısmi Lİberalizasyon

(10)

GAP Pazarlama ve Ünln Deseni Çalışması

İçindekiler

4.5 .5 DÜNYA 3: Senaryosu : Eski Doğu Bloku Ülkelerinin Ta rım Sektöründe Köklü Deği§iklikler

4.6 Dünya Ticaret Modelinin

Sonuçları

4.6.1 T emel Senaryo

4.6.2 Dünya-1 Senaryosu: GATITam Libe ra lizasyon 4.6.3 Dünya-2 Senaryosu: GATI Kısmi Liberalizasyon

4.6.4 Dünya-3 Senaryosu: Eski Doğu Bloku Ülkelerinin Tarım Sektöründe Köklü

Deği§iklikler

4.6.5 Sonuçlar

5. ÜRÜN DESE İ PLAı "'LAı\1A ÇALIŞMALARI

5.1 Gap ve Türkiye Bö lgesel Tarım Sektörü Modelinin (TURGAP) Yapısı

ve Yönetimi 5.1.1 Giri§

5.1.2 Türkiye İçin Hazırlanmı§ Ürün Deseni Modellerinin

Değerlendirilmesi

5.1.3

TURGAP'ın

Ana

Yapısı

5.1.4 Modelin Temel

Varsayımları

5.1.5 Üretim ve Faktör Arzı Aktiviteleri 5.1.6 Mekansal

Ayrı§tırma

5.2 TURGAP' ın Cebirsel ifades i

5.2.1 İndeks Kümes i 5.2.2

Deği§ken

Listesi 5.2.3 Parametre Listesi 5.2.4 D enklem Listesi 5.2.5 D enklemler

5.3 Veriler, Ka l ibrasyon ve Gerçeklik

5.3.1 Veri

Kaynakları

5.3.2 TURGAP Veri Taba nma İ§lemJer Açısından Bakı§

5.3.3 TURGAP'in G eçerli

Kılınması

(11)

GAP Pauırlama ve Ünln Deseni Çalışması İçindekiler

5.4 TURGAP Projeksiyo nları

5.4.1 Giri§

5.4.2 Temel Projeksiyonların sonuçları

5.4.3 Proje ve idari Birim düzeyinde Projeksiyonlar

5.4.4 Projelerin Sulamaya İli§kin Teknik Değerlendirilmesi 5.4.5 TURGAP Senaryosu

6. SO UÇLAR, ÖNERiLER VE İLERi BAKIŞ

EK 5 A: SULAMA YA İLİŞKİN VERİLERİ TAHMİ İ

SAl Giri§

5A.2 Refe rans

Evapotranspinısyon Değerlerinin Hesaplanması

(ETo) 5A.3 Ürün Su Gereksinim Değerlerinin Hesapl a nması (ETe)

5A.4 Net Sulama ihtiyacının Hesa pla nması (I n) 5A.5 Sulama Suyu Gereksinimleri (Yi)

5A.6 Ürün Deseni Modelinde Su Girdi Katsayıları 5A.7 Sulama

Açığı-Yerim

Faktörle ri

SA. 7.1 Te mel Kavramlar 5A7. 1 Su-Yerim

Kalsayıları

5A.8 Su

Kullanım Fiyatları

EK5BTURGAPS~ASYO SONUÇLARI

1995

Yılı

Te mel Senaryosu 2000

Yılı

Te mel Senaryosu 2005

Yılı

Te mel Senaryos u 2010

Yılı

Te mel Senaryos u

2010

Yılı Ta§ıma

Ma liyeti Olm ayan T emel Se naryosu Dü§ük Proje

Etkinliği Yarsayımlı

Se naryo

Sulanabilir

AJanların Umulduğundan

Daha Az

Olması

GA TT Müzakere lerinin Olumlu Ge rçekle§ me Se naryos u

üfus ve Gelirin Alte rnatif Büyüme

Oranları

(12)

GAP Pazarlama ve Ürün Deseni

Çalışması

İçindekiler

CİLT V EKA,B,veC

EKA: WfM-BİLGİSA YAR PROGRAMI Ek Al :Bilgisayar

Programı-

Ana Model

Ek A2 : Bilgisayar

Programı

- Meyve ve Sebzeler Modeli EK B : WfM VERİTABANI

EK Bl :Temel

Yıl

Verileri ( 1987) - Ana Model

EK B2 :Temel

Yıl

Verileri (O rtalama 1985- 1987)- Meyve ve Sebzeler EK B3 : Arz Esneklikleri - Ana Mode l

EK B4 :İhracat Arz Esneklikleri-Meyve ve Sebzeler EK B5 : Talep Esneklikleri - Ana Model

EK B6 : İthalat Talep Esneklikleri -Meyve ve Sebzeler EK B7 : Fiyat

Aktarım

ve Stok Esneklikle ri

EK B8 : Politika Verileri- Ana Model EK B9 :Politika Verileri- Meyve ve Sebzeler EK BlO:

Eğilim

Verileri- Ana Model EK Bl!

:Eğilim

Verileri- Meyve ve Sebzeler EK C: WfM Model

Sonuçları

CİLT VI EKD, E ve F

EK D: TURGAPBİLGİSAYAR PROGRA.ı\11 E K E: TURGAP VERİ TABANI

Ek El :

Aylık

Toprak

Katsayıları

Ek E2 : Aylık İ§gücü Katsayıları (Saat 1 De kar) Ek E3

:Aylık

Makina

Katsayıları

(Saat 1 Dekar) Ek E4 : Tohum

Katsayıları

(Kg 1 Dekar)

Ek E5 : Gübre

Katsayıları

(Etkili Madde 1 Kg 1 Dekar) Ek E6: Su

Katsayıları

(mm)

Ek E7: Verim

Katsayıları

(Kg 1 Dekar) Ek E8: Yan Ürün Katsayıları (Kg 1 Dekar) Ek E9: Sulama Verileri

Ek ElO :Gap Dı§t Türkiye İçin Model Ve rileri Girdi-Çıktı Katsayıları Ek Ell :Gap Dt§t Türkiye İç in Model Verileri T emel Yıl İçin Üretim

Alanı

ve

Fiyatları

Ek E12: Gap Dt§t Türkiye İçin Model Ve rileri Dı§ Ticaret

Ek E13 : Gap Dt§t Türkiye İç in Model Verileri Kaynak Kullanılabilirliği ve Fiyatlar

EK F: TURGAP MODELSONUÇLARI ( YIL 2010- TEMEL)

(13)

EKAl:

BİLGİSAYAR PROGRAMI

ANAMODEL

(14)

COMPUTER PROGRAM- MAIN M ODEL

••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••wn1oooıo

WTMCOM.POR Status: 23.05.92 1

WTM Model, baae model Portran level: 77

May 1991 !Gaua MUeller

Institut f, Agrarpolitik, Universitaat Bonn

••t.rrn00020

••toJTI.100040 . . WTMOOOSO . . WTM00060 . . WTM00070

••wTMOOOSO . . W'!'M00090

••t-rJ'MOOlOO .. W'I'MOOllO . . WTI100120

• *** **** *

** ••

** *** •••

* **** *

*

***

* * ••••• * * ••••

*

***

**

* **** **

** * •

* ** * ***¹NTH00130

DEBUG SUBCHK END DEBUG PROGRAM WTMCOM

IMPLICIT INTEGER'4 (A-vl,Z), REAL'4 (X), LOGICAL'4 (Y) functions

REAL'4 ABS

W'!'M00140 WTMOOlSO W'!'M00160 WTM00170 WTM00180 WTM00190 WTH00200 WTM00210 WTI100220 WTM00230 WTM00240 --- constants --- ~100250

WTM00260 PARAMETER (MAXREG 57)

PARAMETER (MAXPRS 31) PARAMETER (MAXPRP 31) PARAMETER (MAXREP ısı

P ARAJ-1 ETER (MAXAGG 82) PARAMETER (MAXAGP 13) PARAMETER ( MAXELE 12) PARAMETER (MAXPRO 44) PARAMETER (MAXYEA 6) PARAHETER (XDMISS o.)

PARAMETER (KDIM=MAX?RS + 1) PARAHETER (MDIM=MAXPRS + MAXPRS)

max. regions selected max. products selected max. products printed max. regions printed max. components in aggr.

max. aggregates max. elements printed max. products

max .

years missing values

for internal dimensioning

item indices for XTRCOE PARANETER (TRENS:l, TREND=2, TRENSL = 3, TRENDL = 4,

> TYPS =5, TYPD :6, TREOC = 7, NTRE = 7)

>

••• item indices for XCOEF PARAHETER (PSES:1, CSES=2, MPSS:3, SHI0=4, SHIP=S, TRSS:6,

TRSD:7, NSCE:7)

••• item indices for XELEM PARAHETER (PPROP:1,PDEMP=2,PNETP:3,PPEXP:4,PPIMP:5,

> PSTOC=6, PSTOP=7, PUVEX=8,

> PUV!M:9,PUVPR:10,PUVCO:ll,NELEM=ll)

••• item indices for XCOEF PARAMETER (TAUS:l, TAUD:2, SIGS:3, SIGD=4, SIGP=S, NCOE=Sl

••• item indices for XPOL PARAMETER (STEX=1,PINS=2,PIND=3,MPS:4,PRPR=5,PSE=6,CSPR:7,

> CSE=8, VTAR=9, TRPR=10, NPOL:10)

• .. • products PARAMETER (WHEA=l,BARL:2,MAIZ=3,0CES:4,RICE=5,SUGA:6,

WTMCOM.FOR - Page 2

~100270

WTM00280 w'TH00290

~100300

WTM00310 WTM00320 WTM00330 WTM00340

\-I'J'M00350 WTM00360 W'!'M00370 WTM00380 WTM00390 WTM00400 WTM00410 WTM00420

\-1'1'!100430 WTM00440 WTM00450 WTM00460 WTM00470 W'!'M00480 WTM00490

~100500

WTMOOSlO WTM00520 W'!'M00530 WTM00540 WTHOOSSO WTI100560 WTM00570 WTM00580 WTM00590 W'!'M00600 WTM00610 WTM00620 WTM00630 WTM00640 WTM00650 W'!'M00660 WTM00670 W'I'M00680

(15)

COMPUTER PROGRAM - MAIN MODEL

>

LENT=7,CHKP:8,DRYB=

9, SOYA=10,SUNF=ll,GNUT=12, OSOY=l3

,0SUN=l4,0GNU=l5,00LI=16, KSOY=l7,KSUN=l8,KGNU:l9,

BEEF=20,PMEA=2l,MUTT=22,POUL:23,EGGS:24, MILK=25,BUTT=26,MDRY=27,CHES:28,

TOBA=29, COTT:30,

POTA=31, NPR0:31)

.... regions

PARAMETER (TUR=l,BL=2,DK=3,FRA:4,GEW:5,GEE:6,GRE=7,

>

IRL=8,ITA:9,NL=l0,PO=ll,SPA=l2,UK=l3,AUS=l4,

>

ZP =15,FIN=l6,NOR:l7,SWE=l8,SWI:l9,RWE:20,ALB=21,

>

BUL=22

,

CZE=23,HUN=24,POL=25,ROM=26,JUG:27,USS:28,

>

JOR:29,LEB=30,SYR=3l,NME=32,IRN=33,IRQ:34,KUW:35,

>

SAU=36,0ME=37,ISR:38,ALG=39,EGY:40,LYB=4l,MAR=42,

>

TUN:43,SA

=44,RAF=45,8GD=46,PAK:47,IND:48,CHN=49,

>

JAP=50,RAS=5l,USA=52,CAN:53,LA =54,ANZ=55,WOR:56, NREG:56)

aggregates

PARAMETER

(TU

=l, EC =2,RE :3,EE

=4,USR=5,ME

=6,NAF=7,

>

AF =B,AS =9,NA=l0,LAM=ll,AN

=12,WO

:13,

>

NAGG=l3)

WTM00690 WTM00700 WTM00710 WTM00720 WTM00730

WTM00740

WTM00750 WTM00760 WTM00770 WTM00780 WTM00790 WTHOOSOO WTM00810 WTM00820 WTM00830 WTM00840 WTHOOSSO WTM00860 WTM00870 WTM00880

WTM00890 WTM00900 WTM00910

WTM00920 WTM00930

WTM00940

WTM00950 WTM00960

--- globals

---

--- WTM00970

wnioogso

INCLUDE(INOUTG) INCLUDE(DATTIM) INCLUDE (PAN ELG)

INTEGER'4 PROSEL(MAXPRS),NPROS

general files

date

& time

error message handling selected products

WTM00990 WTMOlOOO

WTM01010 WTM01020 WTM01030 WTM01040

WTM01060

WTM01070

INTEGER

•4

PRPSEL(MAXPRP),NPROP

selected products

printed

WTM01080 WTM01090

selected regions printed

INTEGER'4 REPSEL(MAXREP),NREGP

selected

implicit

constr.

INTEGER' 4 IMPSEL(MAXPRO),NIMP

COMMON/MCMCTL/PROSEL,NPROS,IMPSEL,NIMP

supply

elasticities

REAL' 4 XEPSS(NPRO,NPRO,MAXREG)

demand elastiticies REAL'4 XEPSDINPRO,NPRO,MAXREG)

exogenous policy

data REAL'4 XPOL(NPOL,NPRO,MAXREG)

price

transmission and st

oc

k

elasticities

REAL' 4 XCOEB(NCOE,NPRO,MAXREG)

scenarlo parameters

REAL'4 XSCE(NSCE,NPRO,MAXREG)

trend

parameters

REAL

'

4 XTRCOE(NTRE,NPRO,MAXREG)

work arrays

REAL'4

XTRADE(NELEM,MAXREG,NPRO),XWORK(NELE~)

*** simulation

res

u lt table

REAL' 4 XSIM(NELEM,MAXYEA,MAXREG,MAXPRP)

,

>

XAGG(NELEM,MAXYEA,MAXAGP,MAXPRP)

COMMON/MCMDAT/XEPSS,XEPSD,XPOL,XSCE,XCOEB,XTRADE,XTRCOE

WTMOllOO WTMOlllO

WTM01120

WTM01130 WTM01140 WTM01150

WTM01160

WTM01170 WTM01180 WTM01190 WTM01200

WTM01210

WTM01220 WTM01230 WTM01240 WTM01250

WTM01260

WTM01270

WTM01280

WTM01290

WTM01300 WTM01310

WTM01320 WTM01330 WTM01340 WTM01350 WTM01360 --- locals

---

WTM01370

WTMCOM.FOR - Page 3

(16)

CHARACTER

'

80

MESSAG(3)

CHARACTER

'

80

TEXT

COMPUTER PROGRAM- MAIN MODEL

WTM01380

for

sequencial screen messag.WTM01390

WTM01400 descripcion cexc

for cables WTM01410 WTM01420

cable

key

CHARACTER

'l6 KEY(MAXREG),KEYA(MAXAGP),KEYO(MAXREP)

WTM01430 WTM01440 WTM01450 WTM01460 WTM01470 aggregacion array

CHARACTER

' 3 AGGREG ( MAXAGG)

years CHARACTER' 2

YEARS(MAXYEA),YEAR

icem

codes

CHARACTER

'8

TCOE(NCOE),TTRE(NTREl,TPOL(NPOL

),TSCE(NSCEl,

WTM01480 WTM01490

WTM01500

> TELE(NELEM) WTM01510

producc codes

CHARACTER'

4 TPRO(NPRO)

region codes CHARACTER'3

TREG(NREG),TAGG(NAGG)

cable

cypes CHARACTER' 4 TY PELS, TY PELD, TY PPOL, TY PSCE, TY PCOE, TY PTRE,

WTM01520

WTM01530

WTM01540 WTM01550 WTM01560

~ITM01570

>

TYPTRD, TYP WTM01580

>

CHARACTER'

4

PRODUC(MAXPROI CHARACTER'3

REGIOP(MAXREP)

CHARACTER') AGGREP(MAXAGP) CHARACTER'4

PRODUP(MAXPRP)

CHARACTER'

3

REGION(MAXREG) CHARACTER '4

ELEMEN (

MAXELE) CHARACTER'4 PRTELE(MAXELE)

codes of produccs codes of regions princed codes of aggreg. princed codes of produccs princed

WTM01590 WTM01600 .WT!-!01610 WTM01620 .WTM01630

1NTM01640

WTM01650 WTM01660

codes of regions

WTM01670 WTM01680

codes o

f

elemencs

processed WTM01690 WTM01700

codes of elemencs

princed WTM01710

WTM01720

headers

for princing

cables

WTM01730

CHARACTER'80 HEADER(2),FOOTER(2)

WTM01740

CHARACTER'

2

SYEAR,BYEAR

INTEGER'4

SELROW,SELPRO,IYEAR CHARACTER'3

PRPWCH

CHARACTER•) CSPWCH CHARACTER'

3 TRSHFT CHARACTER•)

REGAGl,REGAG2 CHARACTER•)

PERIOD INTEGER'4

M

INTEGER'4

K INTEGER'4 NYEAP

REAL'S XPROPT(MAXREG,MAXPRS)

REAL' 8 XDEMPT(MAXREG,MAXPRS)

base year, final year

princ

seleecian

paramacers

WTM01750 WTMOl760 WTM01770

\-ITM0l780

Prod.

price wedge change mode~ITM01790

WTM01800

Cons. price

wedge

change modeWTM01810

WTM01820 Trend

shifc mode

regional

aggregacion mode periods princed

Number

of

Produccs M+l

years pr in c ed supply

Demand

REAL'8

incernal

work

arrays

XDPl(KDIM,~lDIM) ,XPRICES(MAXPRSI ,XANNPR(MAXPRSI, XREAPR(MAXPRSI,XANNRE(MAXPRSI,

> XSUM ( MAXPRS 1 , X

C

( MAXPRS 1, XBl ( MAXPRS 1, XB2 ( MAXPRS 1

WTM01830

WTM01840

WTM01850 WTM01860

WTM01870

WTM01880 WTM01890 WTM01900 WTM01910 WTM01920 WTM01930

WTM01940 WTM01950

WTM01960 WT!-101970 WTM01980

WT!-!01990

WTM02000 WTM02010 WT!-!02020 WTM02030 WTM02040 WTM02050

•••

policy

paramecer arrays REAL'4 XMPSU(MAXREG,MAXPRSI,XPRPR(MAXREG,MAXPRSI,

> XCSPR(MAXREG,MAXPRSI,XPSE(MAXREG,MAXPRSI,

WTMCOM.FOR - Page 4

(17)

COMPUTER PROGRAM- MAIN MODEL

>

DATA

XCSE(MAXREG,MAXPRS)

• • • !tem codes TCOE/'TAUS', 'TAUD', 'SIGS', 'SIGD', 'SIGP'/,

TPOL/'STEX', 'PINS', 'PIND', 'MPS', 'PRPR', 'PSE', 'CSPR', 'CSE', 'VTAR', 'TRPR'/,

TSCE/'PSES', 'CSES', 'MPSS', 'SHID', 'SHIP', 'TRSS', 'TRSD'/, TTRE/'TRES', 'TRED', 'TRSL', 'TRDL', 'TYPS', 'TYPD', 'DECL'/, TELE/'PROP', 'DEMP', 'NETP', 'PEXP', 'PIMP', 'STOC', 'STOP',

'UVEX', 'UVIM', 'UVPR', 'UVCO'/,

TPRO/'WHEA', 'BARL', 'MAIZ', 'OCES', 'RICE', 'SUGA', 'LENT', 'CHKP', 'DRYB',

'SOYA',' SUNF', 'GNUT', 'OSOY', 'OSUN', 'OGNU', 'OOLI', 'KSOY', 'KSUN', 'KGNU',

'BEEF', 'PMEA', 'MUTT', 'POUL', 'EGGS', 'MILK', 'BUTT', 'MDRY', 'CHES', 'TOBA' , 'COTT' ,

'POTA'/,

TREG/'TUR', 'BL ','DK ', 'FRA', 'GEW', 'GEE', 'GRE', ' IRL' , ' !TA' , 'NL ' , 'PO ' , 'SPA' , 'UK ' , 'AUS' , 'ZP ', 'FIN', 'NOR', 'SWE', 'SWI', 'R:vE', • ALB •, 'BUL', 'CZE', 'HUN', 'POL', 'ROM', 'JUG', 'USS', 'JOR', 'LEB', 'SYR', 'NME', 'IRN', 'IRQ', 'KUW', 'SAU', 'OME', 'ISR', 'ALG', 'EGY', 'LYB', 'HAR', 'TUN', 'SA ', 'RAF',' BGD', 'PAK', 'IND', 'CHN', 'JAP', 'RAS', 'USA', 'CAN', 'LA ', 'ANZ', 'WOR'/,

TAGG/'TUR', 'EC ', 'RWE', 'EE ', 'USS', 'ME ', 'NAF', 'RAF', 'RAS', 'NA ','LA ', 'ANZ', 'WOR'/

DATA (AGGREG(A), A = 1,82)/

• '===', 'TUR', 'TUR',

*'===','EC ','BL ' , 'DK ', 'FRA', 'GEW', 'GEE', 'GRE', 'IRL', 'ITA', 'NL ', 'PO ' , 'SPA', 'UK ' ,

' '===', 'RWE', 'AUS', 'ZP ', 'FIN', 'NOR', 'SWE', 'SWI', 'RWE',

• '===', 'EE ', 'ALB', 'BUL', 'CZE', 'HUN', 'POL', 'ROM', 'JUG' •

•• === •••

uss ••. uss .•

' ' ===', 'ME ', 'JOR', 'LEB', 'SYR', 'N~IE' , 'IRN' , 'IRQ' , ' KUW' , ' SAU ' , ' OME' , ' I SR ' ,

''===', 'NAF', 'ALG', 'EGY', 'LYB', 'MAR', 'TUN', ''===','RAF', 'SA', 'RAF',

' '===', 'RAS', 'BGD', 'PAK', 'IND', 'CHN', 'JAP', 'RAS',

" ===','NA ','USA', 'CAN',

• '===','LA ','LA ',

• '===', 'ANZ', 'ANZ',

• '=== •, 'WOR', 'WOR '/

WT~I02060

WTM02070 WTH02080 WTM02090 WTM02100 WTM02110 WTM02120 WTM02130

~ITJ>I02140

WTM02150 WTM02160 WTM02170 WTM02180 WTM02190 WTM02200 WTM02210 WTM02220 WTM02230 WTM02240 WTM02250 WTM02260 WTM02270 WTM02280 WTM02290 WTM02300 WTM02310 WTM02320 WTM02330 WTM02340 l-l'l'M02350 WTM02360 WTM02370 WTM02380 WTM02390 WTM02400 WTM02410 WTM02420 WTM02430 WTM02440 WTN02450 W'J'M02460 W'J'M02470 WTM02480 WTH02490 WTH02500 WTM02510 WTM02520 WTH02530 WTM02540 WTH02550 WTM02560 WTM02570 W'J'M02580 WTM02590 --- initialize --- W'J'M02600

CALL TIME(TIME8,DATE8)

get time & date from system

get programs environment, display startup logo, open general files CALL PGMINI('WTMCOM', 'PROTOCOL ERROR PRINT',RC)

IF(RC.NE.O) GO TO 556

write log file header WRITE(LOGOUT, '(24X,A) ') 'Log file of program WTMCOM'

WRITE(LOGOUT, '(/80A) ') (' ',I=l, (72-LENACT(PGMTXT))/2),PGMTXT WRITE(LOGOUT, '(/80A) ') (' ',I :l, (72-LENACT(SYSTXTI)/2),SYSTXT WRITE(LOGOUT, '(//17X,4A) ') 'Program startedat ',DATE8,' ',TIMES

WTMCOM.FOR - Page 5

WTM02610 W'J'M02620 WTM02630 WTM02640

WT!~02650

WTM02660 WTM02670 W'J'M02680 WTM02690 WTM02700 WTM02710 WTM02720 WTM02730

(18)

COMPUTER PROGRAM- MAIN MODEL

WTM02740 --- process paramaters & open files --- WTM027SO WTM02760 get basic scenario control WTM02770

CALL WTM4(PRPWCH,CSPWCH,TRSHFT,RC) WTM02780

IF(RC.NE.O) GO TO SS6 WTM02790

WRITE(LOGOUT, '()') WTM02800

••• get file names, open files WTM02810 CALL WTMl(COEFIL,EPSFLl,EPSFL2,POLFIL,TREFIL,SCEFIL, WTM02820

> BASFLl,OUTFLl,OUTFL2,RC) WTM02830

IF(RC.NE.O) GO TO 5S6 WRITE(LOGOUT, '()') CALL WTM3 (BYEAR, SYEAR,

••• get simulation control par.

>

PRODUC,MAXPRS,NPROS,TPRO,NPRO,

TYPELS,TYPELD,TYPPOL,TYPSCE,TYPCOE,TYPTRE, TYPTRD,

RC)

>

IF(RC.NE.O) GO TO 5S6 WRITE(LOGOUT, '() ')

CALL WTM2(REGAGl,REGAG2,PERIOD,RC) IF(RC.NE.O) GO TO SS6

WRITE(LOGOUT, '{) ')

get simulation control par.

••• get simulation control par.

CALL WTMS(PRODUP,MAXPRP,NPROP,TPRO,NPRO, REGIOP,MAXREP,NREGP,TREG,NREG, AGGREP,MAXAGP,NAGGP,TAGG,NAGG, RC)

IF(RC.NE.O) GO TO SS6 WRITE(LOGOUT, '() ')

••• elemenc codes

DO 4S IELEM

=

^l,NELEM

ELEMEN(IELEM)

=

TELE(IELEM) 4S CONTINUE

WTM02840 W'!'M02850 WTM02860 WTM02870 WTM02880 WTM02890 W1'M02900 W1'M02910 W1'M02920 W1'M02930 W1'M02940 WTM02950 WTM02960 WTM02970 WTM02980 WTM02990 WTM03000 W1'M03010 WTM03020 WTM03030 WTM03040 WTM03050 WTM03060 WTM03070 WTM03080 WTM03090 WTM03100 WTM03110 WTM03120 WTM03130 WTM03140 WTM03150 WTM03160 WTM03170 W1'M03180 WTM03190 WTM03200 WTM03210 WTM03220 WTM03230

••• region codes

DO 46 IREG = l,NREG

REGION ( IREG) = TREG ( IREG) 46 CONTINUE

••• years NYEARS

=

YEARS(!) B YEAR YEARS(2) '90' YEARS()) '9S' YEARS(4)

·oo·

YEARS(S)

·os·

YEARS(6) SYEAR

••• index of selected products DO SO IPROS

=

l,NPROS

IFINDC(PRODUC(IPROS),TPRO,NPRO,l) PROSEL ( IPROS)

SO CONTINUE WTM03240

••• index of selected products printed WTM03250 DO Sl IPROP

=

^l,NPROP

PRPSEL(IPROP) IFINDC(PRODUP(IPROP),TPRO,NPRO,l) 51 CONTINUE

••• index of selected regions DO S2 IREGP

=

l,NREGP

REPSEL(IREGP)

=

IFINDC(REGIOP(IREGP),TREG,NREG,ll 52 CONTINUE

IREGW = NREGP+ 1 IROW

=

NREGP+2 REGIOP(IREGW) 'WOR' REGIOP ( IROW ) 'ROW'

WTM03260 WTM03270 WTM03280 printed WTM03290 WTM03300 WTM03310 WTM03320 I·ITM03330 WTM03340 WTM033SO WTM03360 WTM03370 WTM03380

•--- initialize seqential screen output --- WTM03390 CALL MESSON(DUMMY)

WTMCOM FOR -Page 6

WTM03400 WTM03410

(19)

COMPUTER PROGRAM- MAIN MODEL

CALL TABINI(PRNOUT,l33,60, 'ENGLISH') CALL TABMIS(XDMISS,' 0.000.)

~m103420

WTM03430 WTM03440 WTM03450 WTM03460 .... . ..... . . ........... WTM03470

READ DATA WTM03480

• * • • * • • • • • * •

* • • • • • • • • •

* * * • • • • • • *

* * • •

* * • • * •

* • *

* • * * • • * * * • * • * * * * •

*

* • • • • •

* • • W'I'MO 3 4 9 O

••• period routine DO 5 !YEAR = 1, NYEARS-1

WTM03500 WTM03510 WTM03520 WTM03540 WTM03560 '---WTM03570

•--- data constant for all simulation years ---WTM03580 '---WTM03590

IF (IYEAR.EQ.1) THEN

MESSAG(1) = 'READING CONSTANT MODEL DATA' CALL MESSAl (MESSAG, ı,. FALSE., DU!1MY)

WTM03600 WTM03610 WTM03620 WTM03630 WTM03640

•--- Base Year Variables --- WTM03650

60

>

MESSAG(1) = 'Reading Base Year Data ... ' CALL MESSA1(MESSAG,ı, .FALSE.,DUMMY) DO 60 IREG= ı, NREG

KEY!IREG):REGION(IREG)//'00'//' .. '//' .. '//'00'//TYPTRD//'T' CONTINUE

CALL DATINE ( 'TL' )

CALL DATIN4(XTRADE, 'CLTD',NELEM,1,MAXREG,NPRO,

IF(RC.GT.O) THEN

NELEM,1,NREG,NPRO, TELE,BYEAR//'00',KEY,TPRO, BASFLl,LOGOUT,1,0.,RC)

MESSAG(1) = •••• Error(s) reading base data' CALL MESSA1 ( MESSAG, 1, . TRUE. , DUl1MY)

GO TO 555 EN DIF MESTXT =

WTM03660 WTM03670 WTM03680 WTM03690 WTM03700

WTM037ıO

WTM03720 WTM03730 WTM03740 WTM03750 WTM03760 WTM03770 WTM03780 WTM03790 WTM03800 WTM03810 WTM03820 WTM03830 WTM03840

•--- Model Paramaters --- WTM03850 WTM03860

llS

>

MESSAG(l) = 'Reading constant model parameters ... ' CALL MESSAl(MESSAG,l, .FALSE.,DUMMY)

••• read trend coefficients

MESSAG(l) = • ... reading trend coefficients' CALL MESSAl (MESSAG, 1.. FALSE., DUMMY)

DO 115 IREG= l,NREG-1

KEY(IREG)=REGION(IREG)//'00'//' .. '//' .. '//'00'//TYPTRE//'T' CONTINUE

CALL DATINE ( 'L' )

CALL DATIN4(XTRCOE, 'CDLT',NTRE,NPRO,l,MAXREG, NTRE,NPR0,1,NREG-l, TTRE,TPRO, 'NNOO',KEY, TREFIL,LOGOUT,O,O.,RC) IF(RC.GT.O) THEN

MESSAG(l) = •••• Error(s) reading trend coefficients' CALL MESSAl(MESSAG,l, .TRUE.,DUMMY)

GO TO 555 ENDIF MESTXT

DO 116 IREG = l,NREG-1 DO 116 IPRO = l,NPRO

XTRCOE(TRENSL,IREG,IPRO)

••• linear trend modification

WTMCOM.FOR - Page 7

WTM03870 WTM03880 WTM03890 WTM03900 WTM03910 WTM03920 WTM03930 WTM03940 WTM03950 WTM03960 WTM03970 WTM03980 WTM03990 WTM04000 WTM04010 WTM04020 WTM04030 WTM04040 WTM04050 WTM04060 WTM04070 WTM04080 WTM04090 WTM04100 WTM04110

(20)

COMPUTER PROGRAM- MAIN MOD E L

> ( (XTRADE ( PPROP, IREG, IPRO) '

(XTRCOE (TREN S, IREG, IPRO) '•

23) ) - Vfi'M04120

> XTRADE(PPROP,IREG,IPROI) 1

23

Vfi'M04130

XTRCOE(TRENDL,IREG,IPRO) =

Vfi'M04140

>

((XTRADE(PDEMP,IREG,IPRO)

'

(XTRCOE(TREND,IREG,IPR0)

''23))- Vfi'M041SO

> XTRADE(PDEMP, IREG, IPRO)) 1

23

Vfi'M04160

116 CONTINUE Vfi'M04170

•••

read policy coefficients

Vfi'M04180 Vfi'M04190 Vfi'M04200 MESSAG(1) = ' ... reading policy data' WTM04210

CALL MESSA1(MESSAG,1, .FALSE.,DUMMY) Vfi'M04220

DO 110 IREG= l,NREG WTM04230

KEYIIREG)=RE

GION(IREG)//

'

00'//' .

. '//' .. '//'00'//TYPPOL//'T' WTM04240 110 CONTINUE

CALL DATINE('L')

CALL

DATIN41XPOL, 'CDLT',NPOL,NPR0,1,MAXREG,

> NPOL,NPRO,l,NREG,

>

TPOL,TPRO, 'NN00' ,KEY,

>

POLFIL,LOGOUT,O,O.,RC)

IF(RC.GT.

O)

THEN

MESSAG(1) =

••••

Error(s)

reading

policy

data' CALL

MESSA1(MESSAG,l, .TRUE.,DUMMY)

GO TO 55S EN DIF MESTXT EN DIF

·--- ---

^data

^different

^for

each simulation year

--- MESSAG(l) = 'SIMULATION FOR '

//YEARS(IYEAR)

CALL MESSAl (MESSAG, 1, .FALSE., DUMMY)

MESSAG(l) = 'Read variable model

parameters

... ' CALL MESSAl(MESSAG,1, .FALSE.,DUMMY)

read supply elasticities

MESSAG(l) = ' ... reading

supply elasticities•

CALL

MESSAl(MESSAG,l, .FALSE.,DUMMY)

DO

SS IREG=

l,NREG-1

KEY(IREG)=REGION(IREG)//'00'//'&&'//'00'//'00'//TYPELS//'T'

SS

CONTINUE

CALL

DATINE( 'T')

CALL

DATIN3(XEPSS, 'CLT',NPRO,NPRO,MAXREG,

>

NPRO,NPRO,NREG-1,

>

TPRO,TPRO,KEY,

> EPSFLl,LOGOUT,O,O.,RC)

IF(RC.GT.O) THEN

MESSAG(l) = •••• Error(s) reading

supply

elasticities'

CALL

MESSAl(MESSAG,l, .TRUE.,DUMMY)

GO

TO

555 EN DIF MESTXT

=

••• read

demand elasticities

MESSAG(l) = ' ...

reading demand elasticities' CALL

MESSAl(MESSAG,l, .FALSE.,DUMMYI

DO

S6 IREG= l,NREG-1

KEY(IREG) =REGION(IREG)//'00'//'&&'//'00'//'00'//TYPELD//'T' S6

CONTINUE

>

CALL

DATINE( '

T')

CALL DATIN3(XEPSD,

'CLT',NPRO,NPRO,MAXREG,

IF(RC.GT.O) THEN

NPRO,NPRO,NREG-1, TPRO,TPRO,KEY, EPSFL2,LOGOUT,O,O.,RC)

MESSAG(l) = •••• Error(s) reading demand elasticities•

CALL MESSAl(MESSAG,l, .TRUE.,DUMMY) GO TO 555

WTMCOM FOR -Page 8

WTM04250 Vfi'M04260 WTM04270 WTI404280 WTM04290 Vfi'M04300 WTM04310 Vfi'M04320 WTM04330 Vfi'M04340

WTM04350

WTM04360

WTM04370

Vfi'M04 3

eo

WTM04390 WTM04400 WTM04410 WTM04420 WTM04430 WTM04440 WTM04450 WTM04460 WTM04470 WTM04480 Vfi'M04490 Vfi'M04500 WTM04510 Vfi'M04520 WTM04530

WTM04540

WTM04S50

WTM04560

WTM04570 WTM04580 WTM04590 WTM04600 Vfi'M04610 WTM04620 WTM04630 WTM04800 WTM04810 WTM04820 WTM04830

WTI~04840

WTM04850 WTM04860 WTM04870 WTN04880 WTM04890 WTM04900 WTM04910 WTM04920 WTM04930 WTM04940 WTM04950

(21)

COMPUTER PROGRAM- MAJN MODEL

EN DIF MESTXT

••• read input coefficients

MESSAG

(1 )

= ' ... reading input coefficients' CALL MESSA1(MESSAG,1, .FALSE.,DUMMY)

DO 114 IREG= 1,

NREG-1

KEY(IREG)=REGION(IREG)//'00'//' .. '//' .. '//'00'//TYPCOE//'T' 114

CONTINUE

CALL

DATINE ( 'L' l

CALL

DATIN4(XCOEB,

'CDLT',NCOE,NPR0,1,MAXREG,

>

IF(RC.GT.O) THEN

NCOE,N PR0,

1,NREG-1, TCOE,TPRO, '

NNOO

',KEY, COEFIL,LOGOUT,O,O.,RC)

MESSAG(1) = •••• Error(s)

reading

input

CALL

MESSA1(MESSAG,1, .TRUE.,DUMMY)

coefficients'

GO TO

555 EN DIF MESTXT

=

DO

123 IREG = 1,NREG-1

DO 123

B =

1,NPRO

XPOL(STEX,B,IREG) 123 CONTINUE

DO

120 IREG =

1,NREG-1 DO

120

B : l,NPRO

XPOL(STEX,B

,

IREG) O.

120 CONTINUE

DO

122 IREG

DO

122

IPRO DO

122 B

1

,NREG-1 1,NPRO

SIGS,SIGD

OPTIONAL

FEATURES

scaling

of exogenous stocks

XPOL(STEX,B,IREG) •

1000

••• set exogenous stocks to zero

set

supply and demand s

tock elasticities

to zere

XCOEB(B,IPRO,IREG)

122 CONTINUE

o.

••• read scenario

coefflcients YEAR

= YEARS(IYEAR)

MESSAG(1)

=

' ... reading

scenarlo coefficients' CALL

MESSAl(MESSAG,1,

.FALSE

.,

DUMMY)

DO

lll

IREG: l,NREG-1

KEY(IREG):REGION(IREG)//'00'//' .. '//' .. '//'00'//TYPSCE//'T'

lll CONTINUE

CALL D

A

TINE ( 'L' )

CALL DATIN4(XSCE,

'CDLT',NSCE,NPRO,l,MAXREG,

> NSCE,NPR0,1,NREG-l,

> TSCE,TPRO,YEAR//'00',KEY,

>

SCEFIL

,LOGOUT,O,O.,RC)

IF(RC.GT.O) THEN

~IESSAG(l)

=

" " Error(s) reading scenarlo

coefflclents' CALL

MESSAl(MESSAG,l, .TRUE.,DUMMY)

GO

TO 555

ENDIF MESTXT =

MODEL SPECIFICATION

v/TM04

960 V/TM04970

VITM05140 VITM05150 V/TM05160 V/TM05170

WT!~05180

V/TM05190 VITM05200 WTM05210 V/TM05220 V/TM05230 V/TM05240 V/TM05250 V/TM05260 V/TM05270

V/TM05280 VITM05290 V/TM05300 VITM05310 V/TM05320

VITM05330 V/TM05340 VITM05350 V/TMOS360 V/TM05370 V/TMOS380 V/TM05390 WTM05400 V/TM05410 VITM05420 WTM05430 VITM05440 V/TM05450 V/TM05460 VITM05470 VITM05480

WTM05490

WTM05500 V/TM05510 V/TM05520 VITM05530

WTM05540 WTM05550

WTM05560

~105570

VITM05580

~105590

WTM05600

w'!'M05610

VITM05620 V/TM05630

~105640

V/TM05650

VITM05660 WTM05670

WTH05680 V/TM05690 V/TM05700 VITM05710

~!05720

VITM05730 VITM05740

. . . 11 . . ..

* ... .. ... ... . ... . ..

•Vfll405750

MESSAG(1)

=

'Model Specification ... ' CALL MESSA1(MESSAG,l, .FALSE.,DUMMY)

WTMCOM FOR -Page 9

~105760

V/TM05770 VITM05780

(22)

COMPUTER PROGRAM- MAIN MODEL

WTM05790 '---WTMOSSOO

•--- trend production and

consumption, stock calculation -

---WTMOS810

'---

-- ---

-

--- - WTMOS820 WTMOS830

•--- Change

of Stocks in Base Year

---

WTM05840 WTMOSSSO WTM05860

>

1020

>

1030

IF (IYEAR.EQ.

l) THEN

DO

1010 Bl = l,NPROS

B = PROSEL(Bll XWGH TT =

O.

XDIFF =

O.

XBETA

= 1

.

XTRADE(PSTOP,IREGW,B) O.

DO

1020 IREG = 1,NREG-1

WORLD NET RADE

XDIFF =

XDIFF + XTRADE(PPROP,IREG,B)

- XTRADE(PDEMP,IREG,B)

- XTRADE(PSTOP,IREG,B)

XWGHTT = XWGHTT

+

ABS(XTRADE(PSTOP,IREG,B)) CONTINUE

IF (XWGHTT.GT.XBETA) THEN

DO

1030

IREG

= 1,NREG-l

XTRADE(PSTOP,IREG,B)

= XTRADE(PSTOP,IREG,B) +

ABS(XTRADE(PSTOP,IREG,B)) 'XDIFF/XWGHTT

CONTINUE

EN

DIF 1010 CONTINUE

EN DIF

WTM05870 WTM05880 WTMOS890 WTMOS900 WTM05910

. WTM05920

WTM05930 WTMOS940 WTM05950 WTMOS960 WTM05970 WTM05980 WTM05990

WTM06000 WTM06010 WTM06020

WTM06030 WTM06040 WTM06050 WTM06060 WTM06070 WTM06080 WTM06090 WTM06100

· ---

trend production and consumption ---

WTM06110

>

DO 113

IREG = 1,NREG-l

DO 300

Bl

=

l,NPROS

B = PROSEL(Bl)

IF

(TRSHFT.EQ. '

YES

'

) THEN

' ' ' FIRST

YEAR IF(IYEAR.

EQ.l)

THEN

••• SUPPLY TREND

IF(XSCE(SHIP,B,IREG).NE.l.) THEN XPROPT(IREG,Bl)=XTRADE(PPROP,IREG,B)

(XSCE(SHIP,B,IREG) •

•

3)

ELSE

IF(XTRCOE(TYPS,B,IREG) .EQ.l.) THEN XPROPT(IREG,Bl)=XTRADE(PPROP,IREG,B) •

XSCE(SHIP,B,IREG)

(XTRCOE(TRENS,B,IREG) •

•

3)

ELSE

IF(XTRCOE(TYPS,B,IREG) .EQ.2.) THEN

XPROPT(IREG,Bl)=XTRADE(PPROP,IREG,B)

•

XSCE(SHIP,B,IREG)

+

(XTRCOE(TRENSL,

B,IREG) •

3) ELSE IF(XTRCOE(TYPS,B,IREG) .EQ.3.)

THEN

XPROPT(IREG

,

Bl):(XTRADE(PPROP,IREG,B)

XSCE(SHIP,B,IREG)

(XTRCOE(TRENSL,B,IREG)

3)) ⁺

((XTRADE(PPROP,IREG,B)

EN DIF

XSCE(SHIP,B,IREG)

(XTRCOE(TRENSL,B,IREG) •

3)) (XTRADE(PPROP,IREG,B)

• XSCE(SHIP, B,IREG)

(XTRCOE(TRENS

,

B,IREG)

'

3)))

WTMCOM.FOR- Page 10

WTM06120

WTM06130

\oJTlo106140 WTM06150 WTM06160 WTM06170 WTM06920 WTM06930 WTM06940

WTM06950

WTM06960

WTM06970

WTM06980 WTM06990

WTM07000

WTM07010 WTM07020 WTM07030

WTM07040

WTM07050

WTM07060

WTM07070

WTM07080

WTM07090

WTM07100

WTM07ll0

WTM07120

WTM07130

WTM07140

WTM07150

WTM07l60

WTM07170

WTM07180

WTM07190

(23)

>

WTMCOM.FOR - Page l l

COMPUTER PROGRAM- MAIN MODEL

EN DIF

' ' ' DEMAND TREND

IF(XSCE(SHID,B,IREG) .NE.l.) THEN

XDEMPT(IREG,Bll=XTRADE(PDEMP,IREG,B) • (XSCE(SHID,B,IREG)''3)

ELSE

IF(XTRCOE(TYPD,B,IREG) .EQ.l.) THEN XDEMPT(IREG,Bl)=XTRADE(PDEMP,IREG,B) •

XSCE(SHID,B,IREG)

(XTRCOE(TREND,B,IREG) •• 3) ELSE IF(XTRCOE(TYPD,B,IREG) .EQ.2.) THEN

XDEMPT(IREG,Bl)=XTRADE(PDEMP,IREG,B) • XSCE(SHID,B,IREG)

(XTRCOE(TRENDL,B,IREG) • 3) ELSE IF(XTRCOE(TYPD,B,IREG) .EQ.3.) THEN

XDEMPT(IREG,Bl)=(XTRADE(PDEMP,IREG,B) ' XSCE(SHID,B,IREG)

(XTRCOE(TRENDL,B,IREG) ' 3)) ((XTRADE(PDEMP,IREG,B) '

XSCE(SHID,B,IREG) + (XTRCOE(TRENDL,B,IREG) • 3)) (XTRADE(PDEMP,IREG,B) '

XSCE(SHID,B,IREG)

(XTRCOE(TREND,B,IREG) •• 3))) EN DIF

EN DIF

ALL OTHER YEARS ELSE

SUPPLY TREND IF(XTRCOE(TYPS,B,IREG) .EQ.l.) THEN

XPROPT(IREG,Bll=XTRADE(PPROP,IREG,B) ' XSCE(SHIP,B,IREG)

(XTRCOE(TRENS,B,IREG)

*.

5)

ELSE IF(XTRCOE(TYPS,B,IREG) .EQ.2.) THEN XPROPT(IREG,Bl)=XTRADE(PPROP,IREG,B)

*

XSCE(SHIP,B,IREG)

(XTRCOE(TRENSL,B,IREG) • 5) ELSE IF(XTRCOE(TYPS,B,IREG) .EQ.3.) THEN

XPROPT(IREG,Bl)=(XTRADE(PPROP,IREG,B) XSCE(SHIP,B,IREG)

(XTRCOE(TRENSL,B,IREG) • 5) ) ((XTRADE(PPROP,IREG,B)

*

XSCE(SHIP,B,IREG)

(XTRCOE(TRENSL,B,IREG)

.

⁵⁾⁾

(XTRADE(PPROP,IREG,B)

.

XSCE(SHIP,B,IREG)

(XTRCOE(TRENS,B,IREG)

..

⁵⁾⁾⁾

EN DIF

' ' ' DEMAND TREND

IF(XTRCOE(TYPD,B,IREG) .EQ.l.) THEN

XDEMPT(IREG,Bl)=XTRADE(PDEMP,IREG,B) ' XSCE(SHID,B,IREG)

(XTRCOE(TREND,B,IREG) '' 5) ELSE IF(XTRCOE(TYPD,B,IREG).EQ.2.) THEN

XDEMPT(IREG,Bl}:XTRADE(PDEMP,IREG,B) ' XSCE(SHID,B,IREG)

(XTRCOE(TRENDL,B,IREG) ' 5) ELSE IF(XTRCOE(TYPD,B,IREG).EQ.3.) THEN

XDEMPT(IREG,Bl):{XTRADE(PDEMP,IREG,B) ' XSCE(SHID,B,IREG)

(XTRCOE(TRENDL,B,IREG) ' 5)) + ((XTRADE(PDEMP,IREG,B) '

XSCE(SHID,B,IREG)

(XTRCOE(TRENDL,B,IREG)

*

5))

W'1'1407200

W'I'M07210 W'I'M07220 W'I'M07230 W'I'M07240 W'I'M07250 WTM07260 W'I'M07270 W'I'M07280 WTM07290 W'I'M07300 W'!'M07310 W'I'M07320 W'I'M07330 W'!'M07340 W'I'M07350 W'I'M07360 W'!'M07370 W'!'M07380 W'!'M07390 W'!'M07400 W'!'M07410 W'!'M07420 W'I'M07430 W'!'M07440 W'!'M07450 W'I'M07460

W'I'M07470 W'I'M07480 W'I'M07490 W'I'M07500 W'!'M07510 W'!'M07520 W'!'M07530 W'!'M07540 W'!'M07550 W'!'M07560 W'!'M07570 W'!'M07580 W'I'M07590 W'I'M07600 WTM07610 WTM07620 WTM07630 W'I'M07640 W'I'M07650 WTM07660 W'!'M07 6 7 o W'I'M07680 W'I'M07690

W'I'M07700 W'I'M07710 W'!'M07720 W'!'M07730 W'I'M07740 W'!'M07750 vrrM07760 W'I'M07770 W'I'M07780 W'!'M07790 W'I'M07800 W'!'M07810 W'!'M07820 W'!'M07830 W'!'M07840

(24)

COMPUTER PROGRAM- MAIN MODEL

>

ENDIF EN DIF

(XTRADE(PDEMP,IREG,B)

'

XSCE(SHID, B, IREG)

IXTRCOE(TREND,B,IREG)

•• 5)))

'••

NO TREND ELSE

XPROPT(I REG, Bll

=XTRADE(PPROP,IREG,B)

• X

SCE(SHIP,B, IREG)

• 1.

XDEM PT(IREG, Bl)

=XTRADE(PDEMP,IREG,B) '

XSCE(SHI D,B, IREG)

'

1

.

EN DIF 300 CONTINUE 113 CONTINUE

•---- --- - Policy Specification

---

>

DO 63 IREG

=

l,NREG-1 DO 64 Bl = l,NPROS B = PROSEL (Bl)

calculation

of tariff equivalent

IF(XPOL(VTAR, B, IREG)

.

EQ.O)THEN

XPOL(VTAR,B,IREG) =

ELSE

X

DIVI4(XPOL(MPS, B,IREG), (XTRADE(PUVPR,IREG,B)- XPOL(PSE,B,IREG)))

XPOLIVTAR,B,IREG) = XPOL(VTAR,B,IREG) EN DIF

" ' PSE

change

IF(PRPWCH.EQ.

'

YES') THEN

Reduction

of total

PSE/CSE

IF

(XPOL(PSE,B,IREG) .GT.O) THEN

IF

IXPOL(MPS,B,IREG) .GT.O) THEN

XPSE(IREG,Bl)=

(XSCE(PSES,B,IREG

)

• XPOL

(PSE,B,IREG) - XSCE(MPSS,B,IREG)

• XPOL(MPS,B,IREG)) IF

(XPSE(IREG,Bl).GT.O) THEN

XPSE(IREG,Bll=

XPSE(IREG,Bl) ELSE

XPSE(IREG,Bl)=

O.

EN DIF ELSE

XPSE(IREG,Bl)= XSCE(PSES,B, IREG) '

> XPOL(PSE, 8, IREG)

>

WTMCOMFOR - Page 12

EN DIF ELSE

XPSE(IREG,Bl)= O.

EN DIF

Price Transmission Change

XCOEB(

T

AUS

,

B,

IREG)

1.

- (

(1. -

XCOEB(

T

AUS

,

B, IREG)) -

XSCE(TRSS,

B, IREG)

• (1.

-

X

COEB (TAUS,B,IREG))) IF

(XCOEB(TAU

S,B,

IREG) .GE.l

)

THEN

XCOEB(TA

US,B,IREG) 1.

ELSE

XCOEB

(TAUS,B,IREG)

~rrM07aso

WTM07860

WTM07870 WTM07880

WTM07890

WTM07920 WTM07930 WTM07940 WTM07950 WTM07960 WTM07970 WTM07980 WTM07990 WTMOSOOO WTM08010 WTM08020 WTM08030 WTM08040 WTM08050 WTM08060 WTM08070 WTM08080

~rrM08090

WTM08100

WT!-108110

WTM08120

WTM08130

WTM08140

WTM08150

WTM08160

WTM08170

WTM08180

WTM08190

WTM08200

WTM08210

WTM08280

WTM08290

WTM08300

WTM08310

WTM0832

0

WTM08330

WTM08340

WTM08350

WTM08360

WTM0837

0

WTM08380

WTM08390

WTM08400

WTM08410

WTM08420

WTM08430

loJTM08440

WTM08450

WTM08460

WT!-108470

WTM08480

WTM08490

WTM08630

WTM08640

WTM08650

WTM08660

WTM08670

loJTM08680 WTM08690 WTM08700 WTM08710 WTM08720 WTM

08730

(25)

>

COMPUTER PROGRAM - MAIN MODEL

XCOEB(TAUS,B,IREG) EN DIF

ELSE

XPSE(IREG, Bll o.

EN DIF

•••••••• CSE Change

IF(CSPWCH.EQ. 'YES')

THEN

reduccion

of cocal PSE/CSE

IF(XPOL(CSE,B,IREG) .

LT.O)

THEN IF(XPOL(MPS,B,IREG).GT.O) THEN

XCSE(IREG,B1)= (XSCE(CSES,B,IREG) XPOL(CSE,B,IREG)

+ XSCE(t~PSS,

B, I

REG) •

XPOL(MPS, B, IREG)) IF (XCSE(IREG,B1) . LT.Ol THEN

XCSE(IREG,Bll= XCSE(IREG,Bll ELSE

XCSE(IREG,B1)=

O.

EN DIF ELSE

XCSE(IREG,B1l=

EN DIF

XSCE(CSES,B,IREGl XPOL(CSE,B,IREG)

ELSE

XCSE(IREG,Bl)= 0.

EN DIF

Price Transmission

change

XCOEB(TAUD,B,IREG)

1. - ((1. - XCOEB(TAUD,B,IREG))

-

XSCE(TRSO,B,IREG)

•

(1.

-

XCOEB(TAUO,B,IREG)))

IF(XCOEB(TAUD,B,IREG) .GE.1) THEN

XCOEB(TAUD,B,IREG) 1

.

ELSE

XCOEB(TAUD,B,IREG) XCOEB(TAUD,B,IREG) EN DIF

ELSE

XCSE ( IREG, Bl

l

o.

EN DIF

cariff change

WTM08740

~ITM08750

WTM08760 WTM08770 WTM08780 WTM08790 WTM08800 WTM08810

WTM08820

WTM08830 WTM08840

WTM08910

WTM08920 WTM08930

WTM08940

WTM08950 WTM08960 WTM08970 WTM08980 WTM08990 WTM09000 WTM09010 WTM09020 WTM09030 WTM09040 WTM09050 WTM09060 WTM09070 WTM09080 WTM09090 WTM09100 WTM09110 WTI-109120 WTM09260

~ITM09270 WTı-109280

WTM09290 WTM09300 WTM09310 WTM09320 WTM09330 WTM09340 WTM09350 WTM09360

WT~109370

WTM09380 WTM09390

WTı-109400

WTI-109410 WTM09420 WTM09430 WTM09440 IF(PRPWCH.EQ

. 'YES' .ANO.CSPWCH.EQ. 'YES') THEN

WTM09450

IF(XPOL(VTAR,B,IREG)

.GT.O)

THEN WTM09460

XMPSU(IREG,Bl) = ^XPOL(VTAR

,B,IREG)'XSCE(MPSS,B,IREG)

WTM09470 XPOL(VTAR,B,IREG)

=

XPOL(VTAR,B,IREG) - XMPSU(IREG,Bl) WTM09480 XPOL(MPS,B,IREG)

=

XPOL(MPS,B,IREG)

-

XPOL(MPS,B,IREG)

'

XSCE(MPSS,B,IREG)

IF(IYEAR.GT.ll THEN

XCOE3(TAUS,B

,I

REG) XCOEB(TAUO,B,IREG) EN DIF

EN DIF

ELSE

Xt~PSU

( IREG, Bl)

EN DIF

o.

ı.

~·· price insulation

WTM09490 WTM09500 WTM09510 WTM09520 WTM09530 WTM09540 WTM09550 WTM09560 WTM09570

WTM09580 WTM09590 WTM09600

WTMCOM.FOR- Page 13

(26)

COMPUTER PROGRAM- MAIN MODEL

>

XPOL(PIND,B,IREG)=XDIVI4(XCSE(IREG,Bl), XTRADE(PUVCO,IREG,B)) +

XDIVI4((XTRADE(PUVPR,IREG,B)- XPOL(PSE,B,IREG)) •

(-~~PSU(IREG,Bl)),

XTRADE(PUVCO,IREG,B))

XPOL(PINS,B,IREG):XDIVI4(-XPSE(IREG,Bl),

> XTRADE(PUVPR,IREG,B)) +

> XDIVI4((XTRADE(PUVPR,IREG,B)-

> XPOL(PSE,B,IREG)) •

> (-XMPSU(IREG,Bl)),

> XTRADE(PUVPR,IREG,B))

XPOL(TRPR,B,IREG)= (XTRADE(PUVPR,IREG,B) -

> XPOL(PSE,B,IREG)) ' (1. + XPOL(VTAR,B,IREG))

64 CONTINUE 63 CONTINUE

WTM09610 WTM09620 WTM09630 WTM09640 WTM09650 WTM09660 WTM09670 WTM09680 WTM09690 lfl'M09700 WTM09710 WTM09720 WTM09730 WTM09740 WTM09750 WTM09760 WTM09770 WTM09780 WTM09790 WTM09800 WTM09810

• "'lt* .... **** .. ** ... lt .. . .. . ***.*** ... * ••• *.* ... lt* lt • • •

lt.

^{1 . . . .}. . . ,. . .

* ...

^~09820

MODEL SOLUTION WTM09830

* * * . * * * * •• * •••

^*ıl• • • •

** ...

* ... . ..

.... lt.**

lt . . . * .......... **. lt """'l'M09840 WTM09850

• --- get time & date, log --- WTM09860

MESSAG(ll = 'Model Solution ... ' CALL MESSAl(MESSAG,l, .FALSE.,DUMMY) CALL TIME(TIME8,DATE8)

WTM09870 WTM09880 WTM09890 WTM09900 WTM09910 MESSAG(l) = ' ... Start solving procedure at '//TIMES

CALL MESSAl(MESSAG,l, .FALSE.,DUMMY) WTM09920

WTM09930

• --- genaration of new equilibrium solution --- WTM09940 WTM09950

K NPROS+l M NPROS

WTM09960

••• exact unconstrained solution WTM09970 WTM09980 WTM09990 WTMlOOOO

CALL WTMCXC(NREG-l,KDIM,MDIM,K,M,IEV2, WTM10010

WTM10020 WTM10030

>

XPROPT, XDEMPT, XDPl,XSUM,XBl,XB2, RC)

IF(RC.GT.O) THEN

MESSAG(l) = •••• Error, can' 't solve the problem,' MESSAG(2) = ' see protocol file, exit' CALL MESSAl(MESSAG,2, .TRUE.,DUMMY)

GO TO 555 ENDIF

WTM10040 WTM10050 w"'!'Ml0060 WTM10070 WTM10080 WTM10090 WTM10100 WTM10110 WTM10120 --- get date & time, log --- w"'!'Ml0130

CALL TIME(TIME8,DATE8)

MESSAG(l) = ' ... End solving procedure at CALL MESSAl(MESSAG,l, .FALSE.,DUMMY)

'//TIMES

WTI-!10140 WTM10150 WTM10160 WTM10170 WTM10180

* * • • * • *

* * •

*

^{* •}* •

* • • *

* • • • • * • • • • • • • • * • •

* * * • • • • • • •

^**

*

^*

* • * • • • " • • • •

^*

*

^{* •}*

* • •

* • * W""J'Ml 0 190

PREPARE AND PRINT RESULTS WTM10200

WTM10220 '---WTM10230

•--- Print world market price changes ---WTM10240 '---WTM10250

WRITE(PRNOUT,' (/2X,A) ') 'Price changes:' WRITE(PRNOUT, '(/2X,4A)')

WIMCOM.FOR - Page 14

WTM10260 WTM10270 WTM10280

(27)

COMPUTER PROGRAM- MAJN MODEL

> 'PERIOD: ',

YEARS (I YEAR),

'

-

',

YEARS ( IYEAR+l)

DO

4

04

Bl

= l

,NPROS B = PROSEL(Bl)

WRITE(PRNOUT, '

(1X

,

2A

,F20.2,A) ')

> TPRO(B),' = ',

XDPl(IEV2,Bl)'l00

.

,

' %'

404

CONTI NUE

WTM10290 WTM10300 WTM10310

•rrMl0320 WTM10430

WTM10440 WTM10450 WTM10470 WTM10480

'---

---

-

--- ---

-

---

---WTM10490

prepare simulation

results WTMlOSOO

•---

--- --

-

---

--

--- ---

-

--- WTM10510

MESSAG(l) =

'

Process Simulation Results

... ' CALL

MESSAl(MESSAG,l, .FALSE

.

,DUMMY)

WTM10520 WTM10530 WTM10540 WTM10550 '--- PROCESS RESULTS FOR FIRST YEAR

-

---

-

---WTM10560

soo

911

912

921 922

923

>

IF(IYEAR.EQ.l)THEN

DO 800 Cl = l,NPROP DO

800

L = l,NELEM

XSIM(L,IYEAR,IROW,Cl): O.

CONTINUE

DO

910

IREG l,NREG-1

SELROW

=

DO 911

IREGP = l,NREGP

INDIVIDUAL REGIONS, ROW, WOR

IF (REGIOP(IREGP) .EQ.REGION(IREG)) THEN

SELROW

=

O

GOTO 912 EN DIF

CONTINUE

DO 920

Bl

= l,NPROS B = PROSEL(Bl)

SELPRO = O

DO 921 Cl = l,NPROP

IF

(PRODUP(Cl) .

EQ.TPRO(B)) THEN SELPRO = 1

GOTO 922 ENDIF

CONTINUE CONTINUE

IF (SELPRO.EQ. l) THEN

**•

ROW

IF

(SELROW.EQ.l)

THEN

DO 923 L = l,NELEM-4 XSIM(L,IYEAR,IROW, Cl)=

XSIM(

L,IYEAR,IROW,Cl) +

XTRADE(L,IREG,Bl CONTINUE

XSIM(PUVEX,

I

YEAR,IROW,Cl)=

XSIM(PUVEX,IYEAR,IROW, Cl) +

XTRADE(PUVEX,IREG,B)'XTRADE(PPEXP,IREG,B) XSIM(PUVIM, !YEAR,

IRO\~,

Cl)=

XSIM(PUVIM,IYEAR,IROW,Cl)

+

XTRADE (PUVIM,IREG,B)

'XTRADE(PPIMP,

IREG,B

)

XSIM(PUVPR,

I

YEAR,IROW,Cl)=

XSIM(PUVPR,IYEAR,IROW,Cl) +

XTRADE(PUVPR,IREG,B) '

XTRADE(PPROP, IREG,B)

XSIM(PUVCO,IYEAR,IROW,Cl)=

WTMCOM.FOR - Page 15

WTM10570

WTM10580

WTM10590

WTM10600

WTM10610

WTM10620

WTM10630

WTM10640

WTM10650

WTM10660

WTM10670

WTM10680

WTM10690

WTM10700

WTM107 10

WTM10720

WTM10730

WTM10740

WTM10750

WTM10760

WTM10770

WTM10780

WTM10790

WTM10800

WTM10810

WTM10820

WTM10830

WTM10840

WTM10850

WTM10860

WTM10870

WTM10880

WTM10940

WTM10950

WTM10960

WTM10970

WTM10980

WTM10990

WTMllOOO

WTM11010

WTM11020

WTM11030

WTM11040

WTM11050

WTI-111060

WTM11070

WTM11080

WTM11090

WTMlllOO

WTMllllO

WTM11120

(28)

924

920

910

930 932 933

934

931

988

982

COMPUTER PROGRAM- MAIN MODEL

> XSIM(PUVCO, !YEAR, IROW,Clı +

> XTRADE(PUVCO,IREG,Bı • XTRADE(PDEMP,IREG,Bı

>

ELSE

••• all

other regions DO

924 L = l,NELEM

XSIM(L,IYEAR,IREGP,Clı=

XTRADE(L,IREG,Bı

CONTINUE

ENDIF

EN DIF

CONTINUE CONTINUE

DO 930

Cl

= l,NPROP

••'" ROW

XSIM(PUVEX,IYEAR,IROW,clı=

XSIM(PUVEX,IYEAR,IROW,Clı/XSIM(PPEXP,IYEAR,IROW,Clı

XSIM ( PUVIM, I YEAR, IRO~I,

Cl

ı=

XSIM(PUVIM,IYEAR,IROW,Clı/XSIM(PPIMP,IYEAR,IROW,Clı XSIM(PUVPR,IYEAR,IROW,Clı=

XSIM(PUVPR,IYEAR,IROW,Clı/XSIM(PPROP,IYEAR,IROW,Clı

XSIM ( PUVCO, !YEAR, IROI-1, Cl ı=

XSIM(PUVCO,IYEAR,IROW,Clı/XSIM(PDEMP,IYEAR,IROW,Clı

CONTINUE

DO 931

Bl = l,NPROS B

=

PROSEL(Blı

SELPRO

= O

DO 932 Cl

= l,NPROP

••• WOR

IF (PRODUP(Clı .EQ.TPROCBıı

THEN SELPRO =

GOTO 933 EN DIF CONTINUE CONTINUE

IF (SELPRO.EQ.lı

THEN DO 934 L = l,NELEM

XSIM(L,IYEAR,IREGW,Clı=

XTRADE(L,NREG,Bı

CONTINUE EN DIF CONTINUE

DO 980 IAGGP l,NAGGP

DO 988 Cl

l,NPROP

DO 988

L l,NELEH

AGGREGATES

XAGG(L,IYE~~.IAGGP,clı= O.

CONTINUE

DO

981 Bl = l,NPROS

B

= PROSEL(Blı

SELPRO

= O

DO

982 Cl

=

l,NPROP

IF (PRODUP(Clı .EQ.TPRO(Bıı THEN SELPRO = 1

GOTO

983 EN DIF

CONTINUE

WTM11130

~ITM11140

WTMlllSO WTM11160 WTM11170 WTM11180 WTM11190 WTM11200 WTM11210 WTM11220 WTM11230 WTM11240 WTM11250 WTM11260 WTM11270 WTM11280 WTM11290 WT!Hl300 WTM11310 WTM11320 WTM11330 WTM11340 WTH11350 WTM11360 WTM11370

~ITH11380

WTM11390 WTM11400 WTM11410 WTM11420 WTM11430 WTM11440 WTM11450 WTM11460 WTM11470 WTM11480

WTM11490

WTMllSOO WTM11510 WTM11520 WTM11530 WTM11540 WTMllSSO WTM11560 WTM11570

~rnnıs8o

WTM11590

WTM11600

WTı-111610

WTM11620

WTı-!11630

li'I'Mll640 WTM11650 WTM11660 WTM11670 WTM11680 WTl-111690 WTM11700 WTM11710 WTM11720 WTM11730 WTM11740 WTH11750 WTM11760 WTM11770 WTMU 780 WTMU 790 WTM11800

WTMCOM.FOR- Page 16

(29)

983

987

985

984 986

981 980

COMPUTER PROGRAM- MAIN M ODEL

>

:-

>

CONTINUE

IF ISELPRO.EQ.ll THEN DO 984 IAGG = l,MAXAGG

IF(AGGREG(IACG).EQ.AGGREPIIAGGP)) THEN DO 985 A = IACC+l,MAXAGC

IF IAGGRECIA) .EQ. '===') THEN COTO 986

ELSE

Al IFINDCIAGGREGIAl,TREC,NREC,l) DO 987 L = l,NELEM-4

XAGGIL,IYEAR,IAGCP,Cl) = XAGG(L,IYEAR,IAGCP,Cl) + XTRADE(L,Al,B)

CONTINUE

XAGC(PUVEX,IYEAR,IACGP,Cll= XAGGIPUVEX,IYEAR,IACCP,Cll + XTRADE(PUVEX,Al,B) ' XTRADE(PPEXP,Al,B) XACG(PUVIM,IYEAR,IACCP,Cll=

XAGGIPUVIM,IYEAR,IAGGP,Cll + XTRADEIPUVIM,Al,B) • XTRADEIPPIMP,Al,B) XACC(PUVPR,IYEAR,IAGGP,Cl)=

XAGCIPUVPR,IYEAR,IACGP,Cl) + XTRADEIPUVPR,Al,BI '

XTRADE(PPROP,Al,B) XAGG(PUVCO,IYEAR,IAGGP,Cll=

XAGG(PUVCO,IYEAR,IAGGP,Cl) + XTRADEIPUVCO,Al,Bl

XTRADEIPDEMP,Al,B) ENDIF

CONTINUE ENDIF

CONTINUE CONTINUE

XAGGIPUVEX,IYEAR,IAGGP,Cll=

XDIVI4(XAGG(PUVEX,IYEAR,IAGGP,Cl), XAGG(PPEXP,IYEAR,IAGGP,Cl)) XAGG(PUVIM,IYEAR,IAGGP,Cl)=

XDIVI4(XAGG(PUVIM,IYEAR,IAGGP,Cl), XAGG(PPIMP,IYEAR,IAGGP,Cl))

•

replace missing unit values IF (XAGG(PUVEX,IYEAR,IAGGP,B).EQ.O) THEN

XAGGIPUVEX,IYEAR,IAGGP,Bl = XSIM(PUVEX,IYEAR,IREGW,B) EN DIF

IF (XAGGIPUVIM,IYEAR,IAGGP,B).EQ.O) THEN XAGG(PUVUI,IYEAR,IAGGP,B) =

XSIMIPUVIM,IYEAR,IREGW,B) EN DIF

XAGGIPUV?R,IYEAR,IAGGP,Cll=

XDIVI4(XAGGIPUVPR,IYEAR,IAGGP,Cl), XAGG(PPROP,IYEAR,IAGGP,Cl)) XAGG(PUVCO,IYEAR,IAGGP,Cl)=

XDIV14(XAGG(PUVCO,IYEAR,IAGGP,Cl), XAGG(PDEMP,IYEAR,IAGGP,Cl)) EN DIF

CONTINUE CONTINUE EN DIF

WTM11810 WTM11820 WTM11830 WTM11840 WTM11850 WTN11860 WTM11870 WTM11880 WTM11890 WTM11900 WTM11910 WTM11920 WTM11930 WTM11940 W'J'Mll950 WTM11960 WTMll970 WTM11980 W'J'Mll990 WTM12000 WTM12010 r.'TM12020 ri'I'M12030 WT:H2040 WT:H2050 WTM12060 WTM12070 WTM12080 WTM12090 WTM12100 WTM12110 WTM12120 WTM12130 WTM12140 WTM12150 WTM12160 WTI-112170 WTM12180 WTM12190 WTM12200 WTM12210 WTM12220 WTM12230 WTM12240 WTM12250 WTM12260 WTM12270 WTM12280 WTM12290 WTM12300 WTM12310 WTM12320 WTM12330 WTM12340 WTM12350 WTM12360 WTM12370 W'l'l-112380 WTM12390 WTM12400 WTM12410 WTM12420 WTM12430 WTM12440 WTM12450 WTM12460

·--- all ocher years --- WTM12470 WTM12480

WTMCOM.FOR - Page 17

(30)

COMPUTER PROGRAM- MAJN MODEL

••• reset arrays DO 940 Cl = l,NPROP

DO 940 L = l,NELEM

XSIM(L,IYEAR+l,IREGW,Cl)= O.

XSIM(L,IYEAR+l,IROW,Cl)= O.

940 CONTINUE

941

951 952

961 962

963

>

DO 941 Bl = l,NPROS DO 941 L = l, NELEM-4

B = PROSEL(Bl) IF(L.NE.PSTOC) THEN

XTRADE(L,NREG,B)=

o.

EN DIF CONTINUE

DO 950 IREG=l,NREG-1 SELROW = 1

DO 951 IREGP = l,NREGP

INDIVIDUAL REGIONS, WOR, ROW

IF (REGIOP(IREGP).EQ.REGION(IREG)) THEN SELROW = O

GOTO 952 EN DIF CONTINUE CONTINUE

DO 960 Bl = l,NPROS B = PROSEL(Bl) SELPRO = O

DO 961 Cl = l,NPROP

IF (PRODUP(Cl) .EQ.TPRO(B)) THEN SELPRO =

GOTO 962 EN DIF CONTINUE CONTINUE

XWORK(PPROP)= XTRADE(PPROP,IREG,B) XWORK(PDEMP)= XTRADE(PDEMP,IREG,B) XTRADE(PPROP,IREG,B)= XPROPT(IREG,Bl) XTRADE(PDEMP,IREG,B): XDEMPT(IREG,Bl)

compuce new base year array (XTRADE)

DO 963 Dl=l,NPROS D = PROSEL (Ol)

••• Produccion XTRADE(PPROP,IREG,B)= XTRADE(PPROP,IREG,B) +

XPROPT(IREG,Bl) • XEPSS(D,B,IREG) •

(XCOEB(TAUS,D,IREG)' XDPl(IEV2,Dl) • XDIVI3(XPOL(TRPR,D,IREG),

XTRADE(PUVPR,IREO,D)) + XPOL(PINS,D,IREG))

• * • Demand

XTRADE(PDEMP,IREG,B)= XTRADE(PDEMP,IREG,B) + XDEMPT(IREG,Bl) •

XEPSD(D,B,IREG) •

(XCOEB(TAUD,D,IREG)' XDPl(IEV2,Dl) • XDIVI3(XPOL(TRPR,D,IREG),

XTRADE(PUVCO,IREG,O)) + XPOL(PIND,D,IREG))

CONTINUE

scocks XTRADE(PSTOP,IREG,B)= XPOL(STEX,B,IREG) +

WTMCOM FOR - Page 18

WTM12490 WTM12500

~ITM12510

WTM12520 WTM12530 WTM12540 WTM12550 WTM12560 WTM12570 WTM12580 WTM12590 WTM12600 WTM12610 WTM12620 WTM12630 WTM12640 WTM12650 WTM12660 WTM12670 WTM12680 WTM12690 WTM12700 WTM12710 WTM12720 WTM12730 WTM12740 WTM12750 WTM12760 WTM12770 WTM12780 WTM12790 WTM12800 WTM12810 WTM12820 WTM12830 WTM12840 WTM12850 WTM12860 WTM12900 WTM12910 WTM12920

WT~112930

WTM12940 viTM129SO WTM12960 WTM12970 WTM12980 WTM12990 WTM13000 WTM13010 WTM13020 WTM13030 WTM13040 WTM13050 WTM13060 WTM13070 WTM13080 WTM13090 WTI!l3100 WTI!l3110

WT~113120

WTM13130 WTM13140

WT~!l3150

WTM13160 WTM13170 WTM13180 WTM13190