INVESTIGATION OF THE EFFECT OF SNOWFALL ON THE FLIGHTS IN TURKEY

(1)

INVESTIGATION OF THE EFFECT OF SNOWFALL ON THE FLIGHTS IN TURKEY

A. ÇAKIN

^1,*

, İ. CEYHAN

¹

, V. YAVUZ

¹

, E. T. ÖZDEMİR

^1,2

, C. TEMİZ

¹

, A.

DENİZ

¹

1

Istanbul Technical University, Faculty of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Department of Meteorological Engineering, Maslak, 34469 Istanbul – Turkey

2

General Directorate of Meteorology, Atatürk Airport Meteorology Office, Yeşilköy, Istanbul, Turkey

*

cakina@itu.edu.tr

Abstract

Air transport, has started to become more popular in the transportation sector in recent years. People can save both time and money by using this type of transportation. That is why even a minute deviation of the departure and arrival time of an airplane will lead to affect other flights, and it will be reflected adversely to the people. The most important factors that affect the departure and arrival of the airplane is technical and meteorological conditions. While technical requirements can be solved with appropriate interventions, meteorological conditions may cause the cancellation of the flights and deviation with hours or even days. A flight to take place under appropriate conditions, not just from the port, the destination is also required to be eligible.

Flights to happen smoothly, the visibility of the runway, cloud base height, icing, wind speed and direction, fog, snowing and a lot of meteorological factors must be appropriate with required standards. These standards vary according to the location of each airport. In this study, snowfall, a significant meteorological factor, were examined how affect the national and international airports in Turkey and is that caused flight cancellations at any airports in recent time. According to preliminary data obtained, between the dates 05/01/2015 - 08/01/2015, there are so many cancellations and delays happened at many airports because of snowfall.

Keywords: Snowfall, airports, flight, Turkey

INTRODUCTION

Air transportation is becoming more important every year. People prefer airways

instead of the railways or highways because of recovery time. Also, people can save

both time and money by using this type of transportation. So, the important thing is

that even a minute deviation of the departure and arrival time of an airplane will lead

to affect other flights, and it will be reflected adversely to the people. The most

important factors that affect the departure and arrival of the airplane is technical and

meteorological conditions. While technical requirements can be solved with

appropriate interventions, meteorological conditions may cause the cancellation of the

flights and deviation with hours or even days. A flight to take place under appropriate

conditions, not just from the port, the destination is also required to be eligible. There

are many factors which must be appropriate with required standards such as visibility

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of the runway, cloud base height, icing, wind speed and direction, windchill, fog, snowing and many meteorological factors must be appropriate with required standards. These standards vary according to the location of each airport. In this study, snowfall, a significant meteorological factor, were examined how affect the national and international airports in Turkey and is that caused flight cancellations at any airports in recent time. According to preliminary data obtained, between the dates 05/01/2015 - 08/01/2015, there are so many cancellations and delays happened at many airports because of snowfall. This study stated that cancellation of 101 flights has led to approximately 18 thousand passengers aggrieved and accordingly there are material and spiritual losses for THY Company.

METHOD

In this study, analysis of METARs, TAFs and Synoptic Codes are investigated for flights cancellation of Turkish Airlines which also known as common companies in aviation sector. Cancelled flights at international airports in Turkey are shown in the following list as a result of occur snow held between 7-8 January 2015.

Turkish Airlines has cancelled 165 flights in totally because of snowfall in 7-8 January 2015. This study just involves the examination about the cancellation of 101 flights occurred in international airports in Turkey.

Informations for International Airports in Turkey

LOCATION ICAO IATA AIRPORT NAME

Adana LTAF ADA Adana Şakirpaşa

Airport

Ankara LTAC ESB Ankara Esenboğa

Airport

Antakya LTAK HTY Hatay Airport

Antalya LTAI AYT Antalya Airport

Bodrum LTFE BJV Milas-Bodrum

Airport

Bursa LTBR YEI Bursa Yenişehir

Airport

Dalaman LTBS DLM Dalaman Airport

Erzurum LTCE ERZ Erzurum Airport

Eskişehir LTBY AOE Eskişehir Anadolu

Airport

Gaziantep LTAJ GZT Gaziantep Airport

İstanbul LTBA IST İstanbul Atatürk

Airport

İstanbul LTFJ SAW Sabiha Gökçen

Airport

İzmir LTBJ ADB İzmir Adnan

Menderes Airport

Kayseri LTAU ASR Kayseri Airport

Konya LTAN KYA Konya Airport

Kütahya LTBZ KZR Kütahya Zafer

(3)

Airport

Malatya LTAT MLX Malatya Airport

Nevşehir LTAZ NAV Nevşehir

Kapadokya Airport

Samsun LTFH SZF Samsun Çarşamba

Airport

Şanlıurfa LTCS GNY Şanlıurfa GAP

Airport

Trabzon LTCG TZX Trabzon Airport

Visual range is determined by an observer and defined as the maximum distance at which an object or low intensity light can be distinguished. Visual range and visibility are used here interchangeably.

Runway visual range (RVR), in aviation meteorology, is the distance over which a pilot of an aircraft on the centreline of the runway can see the runway surface markings delineating the runway or identifying its centre line.

METAR is a format for reporting weather information. A METAR weather report is predominantly used by pilots in fulfillment of a part of a pre-flight weather briefing, and by meteorologists, who use aggregated METAR information to assist in weather forecasting.

TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation meteorology. TAFs are issued every 6 hours such as 0000,0600,1200,1800 UTC, and generally apply to a 24 or 30-hour period, and an area within approximately five statute miles from the center of an airport runway complex.

TAFs complement and use similar encoding to METAR reports. They are produced by a human forecaster based on the ground. For this reason there are considerably fewer TAF locations than there are airports for which METARs are available. TAFs can be more accurate than Numerical Weather Forecasts, since they take into account local, small-scale, geographic effects.

SYNOP (surface synoptic observations) is a numerical code (called FM-12 by WMO) used for reporting weather observations made by manned and automated weather stations.

CAVOK is an abbreviation for Ceiling And Visibility Okay, indicating no cloud below 5,000 ft (1,500 m) or the highest minimum sector altitude and no cumulonimbus or towering cumulus at any level, a visibility of 10 km (6 mi) or more and no significant weather.

Atmospheric icing occurs when water droplets in the atmosphere freeze on objects

they contact. This can be extremely dangerous to aircraft, as the built-up ice changes

the aerodynamics of the flight surfaces, which can increase the risk of a subsequent

stalling of the airfoil.

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Visibility and Cloud Ceilings Of Cancelled Flights Table

No Date

Flight

Number Departure

Departure

Time Arrival

Arrival Time

Visibility Of Arrival (m)

Cloud Ceiling (feet)

1 7.01.15 TK2014

(IST) Ataturk Airport

İstanbul 17:25

(ASR) Kayseri

Airport 18:45 10000 3300

2 7.01.15 TK2015

(ASR) Kayseri

Airport 19:30

İstanbul 21:00 10000 3000 3 7.01.15 TK2032

İstanbul 06:55

(KYA) Konya

Airport 08:10 8000 3000

4 7.01.15 TK2033

(KYA) Konya

Airport 08:55

İstanbul 10:15 6000 2500

5 7.01.15 TK2036

İstanbul 13:45

(KYA) Konya

Airport 15:00 500 300

6 7.01.15 TK2037

(KYA) Konya

Airport 15:45

İstanbul 17:05 2000 1400

7 7.01.15 TK2038

İstanbul 17:55

(KYA) Konya

Airport 19:10 4000 300

8 7.01.15 TK2039

(KYA) Konya

Airport 19:55

İstanbul 21:20 10000 3000

9 7.01.15 TK2122

İstanbul 07:00

(ESB) Ankara Esenboğ

a Airport 08:05 10000 3500

10 7.01.15 TK2123

(ESB) Ankara Esenboğa

Airport 09:00

İstanbul 10:05 7000 2500

11 7.01.15 TK2138

İstanbul 10:00

a Airport 11:05 10000 3500

12 7.01.15 TK2139

Airport 11:50

İstanbul 12:55 3500 2400

13 7.01.15 TK2150

İstanbul 13:00

a Airport 14:05 10000 4000

14 7.01.15 TK2151

Airport 15:00

İstanbul 16:05 2000 2400

15 7.01.15 TK2170

(IST) Ataturk

Airport 18:00

(ESB)

Ankara 19:05 10000 3500

(5)

No Date

Flight

Departure

İstanbul Esenboğ

a Airport

16 7.01.15 TK2171

Airport 20:00

İstanbul 21:05 10000 4000 17 7.01.15 TK2220

İstanbul 06:00

(GZT) Gaziante

p Airport 07:40 10000 200

18 7.01.15 TK2221

(GZT) Gaziantep

Airport 08:30

İstanbul 10:25 6000 2500

19 7.01.15 TK2320

İstanbul 11:00

(ADB) İzmir Adnan Mendere

s Airport 12:05 10000 3000

20 7.01.15 TK2321

(ADB) İzmir Adnan Menderes

Airport 12:50

İstanbul 13:55 3000 2400

21 7.01.15 TK2334

İstanbul 18:00

s Airport 19:05 10000 3000

22 7.01.15 TK2335

Airport 20:00

İstanbul 21:05 10000 4000 23 7.01.15 TK2454

İstanbul 06:30

(ADA) Adana

Airport 08:00 10000 3500

24 7.01.15 TK2455

(ADA) Adana

Airport 08:45

İstanbul 10:25 6000 2600

25 7.01.15 TK2470

İstanbul 17:00

(ADA) Adana

Airport 18:30 10000 3500

26 7.01.15 TK2471

(ADA) Adana

Airport 19:15

İstanbul 20:55 6000 2800

27 7.01.15 TK2480

İstanbul 20:30

(ADA) Adana

Airport 22:00 10000 3500

28 7.01.15 TK2908

(SAW) Sabiha Gökçen Airport

İstanbul 12:55

s Airport 13:55 10000 3000

(6)

No Date

Flight

Departure

29 7.01.15 TK2909

Airport 14:40

İstanbul 15:40 700 600

30 7.01.15 TK2914

İstanbul 19:00

s Airport 15:40 10000 3000

31 7.01.15 TK2915

Airport 20:50

İstanbul 21:50 10000 3500

32 7.01.15 TK2922

İstanbul 07:00

(AYT) Antalya

Airport 08:10 10000 3000

33 7.01.15 TK2923

(AYT) Antalya

Airport 08:55

İstanbul 10:05 700 900

34 7.01.15 TK2964

İstanbul 07:30

a Airport 08:30 10000 3500

35 7.01.15 TK2965

Airport 09:15

İstanbul 10:15

R06/1200

R24/1500 1600

36 7.01.15 TK2976

İstanbul 18:15

a Airport 19:20 10000 3500

37 7.01.15 TK2978

İstanbul 19:15

a Airport 20:20 10000 3500

38 7.01.15 TK2979

Airport 20:30

İstanbul 21:30 3200 1200

39 7.01.15 TK2981

Airport 21:15

İstanbul 22:15 3200 1200

40 7.01.15 TK7242

İstanbul 08:00

a Airport 09:00 10000 3500

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No Date

Flight

Departure

41 7.01.15 TK7243

Airport 09:00

İstanbul 10:00

R06/1200

R24/P1500 1600

42 7.01.15 TK7284

İstanbul 08:45

(KYA) Konya

Airport 09:55 2500 3500

43 7.01.15 TK7285

(KYA) Konya

Airport 10:25

İstanbul 11:35 10000 2700

44 7.01.15 TK7296

İstanbul 18:30

(ASR) Kayseri

Airport 19:45 8000 3300

45 7.01.15 TK7297

(ASR) Kayseri

Airport 20:15

İstanbul 21:30

R06/0500

R24/P1500 1200

46 8.01.15 TK2116

İstanbul 06:00

a Airport 07:05 10000 4000

47 8.01.15 TK2117

Airport 08:00

İstanbul 09:05 7000 3100

48 8.01.15 TK2010

İstanbul 06:35

(ASR) Kayseri

Airport 08:00 10000 1000

49 8.01.15 TK2011

(ASR) Kayseri

Airport 08:45

İstanbul 10:15 7000 3000

50 8.01.15 TK2630

İstanbul 06:40

(MLX) Malatya

Airport 08:20 10000 2000

51 8.01.15 TK2631

(MLX) Malatya

Airport 09:15

İstanbul 11:00 6000 3000

52 8.01.15 TK2032

İstanbul 06:55

(KYA) Konya

Airport 08:10 10000 4000

53 8.01.15 TK2033

(KYA) Konya

Airport 08:55

İstanbul 10:15 6000 3000

54 8.01.15 TK2458

İstanbul 08:50

(ADA) Adana

Airport 10:25 10000 3600

(8)

No Date

Flight

Departure

55 8.01.15 TK2459

(ADA) Adana

Airport 11:10

İstanbul 12:50 6000 2500

56 8.01.15 TK2142

İstanbul 11:00

a Airport 12:05 10000 4000

57 8.01.15 TK2143

Airport 13:00

İstanbul 14:05 10000 3000

58 8.01.15 TK2320

İstanbul 11:00

s Airport 12:05 10000 3000

59 8.01.15 TK2321

Airport 12:50

İstanbul 13:55 9000 3000

60 8.01.15 TK2012

İstanbul 12:55

(ASR) Kayseri

Airport 14:20 10000 2100

61 8.01.15 TK2013

(ASR) Kayseri

Airport 15:05

İstanbul 16:35 8000 2300

62 8.01.15 TK2152

İstanbul 14:00

a Airport 15:05 10000 4000

63 8.01.15 TK2453

Airport 06:45

İstanbul 08:25 10000 3400

64 8.01.15 TK2162

İstanbul 16:00

a Airport 17:05 10000 4000

65 8.01.15 TK2163

Airport 18:00

İstanbul 19:05 10000 2500

66 8.01.15 TK2170

İstanbul 18:00

a Airport 19:05 10000 4000

67 8.01.15 TK2171

Airport 20:00

İstanbul 21:05 10000 3000

68 8.01.15 TK2334

İstanbul 18:00

(ADB) İzmir Adnan

Mendere 19:05 10000 CAVOK

(9)

No Date

Flight

Departure

Cloud Ceiling (feet) s Airport

69 8.01.15 TK2335

Airport 20:00

İstanbul 21:05 10000 3000

70 8.01.15 TK2008

İstanbul 19:40

(NAV) Nevşehir Kapadok

ya

Airport 21:05 10000 4000

71 8.01.15 TK2009

(NAV) Nevşehir Kapadokya

Airport 22:00

İstanbul 23:25 10000 3300

72 8.01.15 TK2182

İstanbul 21:00

a Airport 22:05 10000 CAVOK

73 8.01.15 TK2183

Airport 23:00

İstanbul 00:05 10000 3900

74 8.01.15 TK2116

İstanbul 06:00

a Airport 07:05 10000 4000

75 8.01.15 TK2117

Airport 08:00

İstanbul 09:05 7000 3100

76 8.01.15 TK2010

İstanbul 06:35

(ASR) Kayseri

Airport 08:00 10000 1000

77 8.01.15 TK2011

(ASR) Kayseri

Airport 08:45

İstanbul 10:15 7000 3000

78 8.01.15 TK2630

İstanbul 06:40

(MLX) Malatya

Airport 08:20 10000 2000

79 8.01.15 TK2631

(MLX) Malatya

Airport 09:15

İstanbul 11:00 6000 3000

80 8.01.15 TK2032

İstanbul 06:55

(KYA) Konya

Airport 08:10 10000 3500

81 8.01.15 TK2033

(KYA) Konya

Airport 08:55

İstanbul 10:15 6000 3000

82 8.01.15 TK2458

İstanbul 08:50

(ADA) Adana

Airport 10:25 10000 3600

(10)

No Date

Flight

Departure

83 8.01.15 TK2459

(ADA) Adana

Airport 11:10

İstanbul 12:50 6000 2500

84 8.01.15 TK2142

İstanbul 11:00

a Airport 12:05 10000 4000

85 8.01.15 TK2143

Airport 13:00

İstanbul 14:05 10000 3000

86 8.01.15 TK2320

İstanbul 11:00

s Airport 12:05 10000 3000

87 8.01.15 TK2321

Airport 12:50

İstanbul 13:55 9000 3000

88 8.01.15 TK2012

İstanbul 12:55

(ASR) Kayseri

Airport 14:20 10000 2100

89 8.01.15 TK2013

(ASR) Kayseri

Airport 15:05

İstanbul 16:35 8000 2300

90 8.01.15 TK2152

İstanbul 14:00

a Airport 15:05 10000 4000

91 8.01.15 TK2453

(ADA) Adana

Airport 06:45

İstanbul 08:25 10000 3400

92 8.01.15 TK2162

İstanbul 16:00

a Airport 17:05 10000 4000

93 8.01.15 TK2163

Airport 18:00

İstanbul 19:05 10000 2500

94 8.01.15 TK2170

İstanbul 18:00

a Airport 19:05 10000 4000

95 8.01.15 TK2171

Airport 20:00

İstanbul 21:05 10000 3000

96 8.01.15 TK2334

İstanbul 18:00

(ADB) İzmir Adnan

Mendere 19:05 10000 CAVOK

(11)

No Date

Flight

Departure

Cloud Ceiling (feet) s Airport

97 8.01.15 TK2335

Airport 20:00

İstanbul 21:05 10000 3000

98 8.01.15 TK2008

İstanbul 19:40

(NAV) Nevşehir Kapadok

ya

Airport 21:05 10000 4000

99 8.01.15 TK2009

(NAV) Nevşehir Kapadokya

Airport 22:00

İstanbul 23:25 10000 3300

100 8.01.15 TK2182

İstanbul 21:00

a Airport 22:05 10000 CAVOK

101 8.01.15 TK2183

Airport 23:00

İstanbul 00:05 10000 3900

CONCLUSIONS

Cloud base height and visibility are analyzed through METARs and TAFs codes. The

results are shown that values below 5000 meter in many airports. Even this, flights

cancelled due to this value reach to below 1500 meter with the assumption that

prevent flight during snowfall in some of the airports. Based on the research result

shown another cause of cancelled flights, icing consisting of winds after snowfall has

been determined. Flights was cancelled that might occur during icing formed in the

landing runway at many airports may be the trigger of the huge accident.

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This study stated that cancellation of 101 flights has led to approximately 18 thousand passengers aggrieved and accordingly there are material and spiritual losses for THY Company.