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v ABSTRACT

MasWHU¶V Thesis

Econometric Analysis of Efficiency of Energy Policies: The Case of Turkey (PUHd(9ø.

Dokuz Eyll University Graduate School of Social Sciences

Department of Econometrics Econometrics Program

In the past and in the future, energy sources, which are one of the most important tools to meet the needs of human, placed first place in internal and external policies of the countries with the increasing proportion of the population and rapidly developing technology. Since non-renewable energy sources are finite and consumed quickly, countries have to generate alternative solutions to current energy policies. For this reason, with the help of technology, interest in renewable sources of energy is quite on the rise for the energy needed countries.

The purpose of the study is to investigate the flexibility in the price of oil whose popularity was left to the natural gas regarding the substitution of natural gas, coal and electricity prices. In this study, by using data from Turkish Statistical Institute and the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, energy-one of the main raw materials in the industrial sector of Turkey was identified concerning the substitution of different sources.

To obtain price elasticities, the translog cost function was estimated by seemingly unrelated regression. With the help of coefficients achieved from the model coefficients, the cross Morishima elasticities of technical substitution were also interpreted.

Keywords: Energy Policies, Translog Cost Function, Morishima Technical Subsitution

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Kaynak: ETKB

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(7.%¶QÕQ \D\ÕQODPÕú ROGX÷X LVWDWLVWLNOHUH J|UH 7UNL\H  \ÕOÕ VRQX LWLEDUL\OH  WRQ SHWURO UHWLS  WRQ SHWURO LWKDO HGLS  WRQ LKUDo HWPLúWLU %X YHULOHU ÕúÕ÷ÕQGD 7UNL\H¶QLQ SHWURO LKWL\DFÕ KDW VDIKDGDGÕU YH \ÕOODU bo\XQFD SHWUROH RODQ LKWL\Do |QHPLQL NRUX\DFDNWÕU dQN LQVDQODUÕ WRSOX WDúÕPD DUDoODUÕQÕNXOODQPD\D\|QHOLNJLULúLPOHU7UNL\HLoLQ\HWHUVL]GLU$\UÕFDQDNOL\HLoLQ NXOODQÕODQDUDoODUÕQE\NELUoR÷XQOX÷XNDUD\ROXDUDoODUÕGÕUg]HOOLNOHúHKLUOHUDUDVÕ nakOL\H YH WRSOX WDúÕPD NRQXVXQGD 7UNL\H¶GH GHQL] XODúÕPÕQÕQ \DQÕQGD GHPLU\ROX

11 XODúÕPÕQÕQ GD D]DODQ YH PXKWHPHO ELU NUL]GH IL\DWODUÕ KÕ]OÕ ELU úHNLOGH DUWDQ SHWURO WNHWLPLQLD]DOWPDNDPDFÕ\ODJHOLúWLULOPHVLJHUHNOLGLU$\UÕFD7UNL\HNDUD\ROODUÕQGD meydana JHOHQND]DRUDQODUÕQÕGúUPHGHGHPLU\ROX\DWÕUÕPODUÕQÕQGDHWNLVL\NVHN RODFDNWÕU

1.1.2. K|PU

)RVLO\DNÕWODULoHULVLQGHHQ\D\JÕQELoLPGHWHGDULNHGLOHQYHNXOODQÕODQHQHUML oHúLWOHULQGHQ ELUL RODQ N|PU GQ\DGD EHú NÕWD ]HULQGH UHWLOPHNWHGLU .|PU oR÷XQOXNOD NDUERQ KLGURMHQ YH RNVLMHQGHQ ROXúDQ D] PLNWDUGD NNUW YH QLWURMHQ LoHUHQ NLP\DVDO YH IL]LNVHO RODUDN IDUNOÕ \DSÕ\D VDKLS PDGHQ YH ND\DoWÕU 7UNL\H TDúN|PU Kurumu, 2011: 6 .|PU UH]HUYOHUL GL÷HU IRVLO \DNÕWODU JLEL GQ\DQÕQ EHOLUOL ELU E|OPQGH GH÷LO WP GQ\DGD \D\JÕQ ELU úHNLOGH EXOXQPDNWDGÕU 'XUX 2006: 15 (OHNWULN UHWLPLQGH GHPLU-oHOLN YH oLPHQWR LPDODWÕQGD HQGVWUL\HO VUHoOHUGHEXKDUUHWLPLYHÕVÕQPDDPDFÕJLELoRNoHúLWOLDODQODUGDHQ|QHPOLHQHUML ND\QDNODUÕQGDQELULGLU

'Q\D¶GDGR÷DOND\QDN EDNÕPÕQGDQHQ]HQJLQIRVLO \DNÕWUH]HUYLN|PUGU 0HYFXWUHWLPVHYL\HOHULLOHGQ\DJ|UQUN|PUUH]HUYOHULQLQRUWDODPD\ÕOOÕN ELU VUHGH WNHWLOHFH÷L WDKPLQ HGLOPHNWHGLU 77. : 10  \ÕOÕ LWLEDUL\OH GQ\D N|PU UH]HUYOHULQGH  PLO\RQ WRQ LOH 5XV\D )HGHUDV\RQX ELULQFLOL÷H VDKLS LNHQ  PLO\RQ WRQ LOH dLQ +DON &XPKXUL\HWL LNLQFL VÕUDGD YH WRSODP PLO\RQWRQN|PUUH]HUYLQLQ7UNL\H¶GHROGX÷XELOLQPHNWHGLU (BP, 2011).

7UNL\H¶QLQ HQ |QHPOL WDúN|PU UH]HUYOHUL =RQJXOGDN +DY]DVÕ¶QGD EXOXQPDNWDGÕU +DY]DGD - P GHULQOL÷H NDGDU WHVSLW HGLOPLú WRSODP MHRORMLN UH]HUYPLO\DUWRQROXSEXQXQ¶X\DNODúÕNPLO\RQWRQJ|UQUUH]HUY olarak kabul edilmektedir (TTK, 2012: 24). 7UNL\H¶GH UHWLOHQ N|PUQ \ÕOOar LWLEDUL\OHJHOLúLPLùHNLO¶GHYHULOPLúWLUùHNLO2 LQFHOHQGL÷LQGHN|PUUHWLPLQGHELU DUWÕú WUHQGL ROGX÷X GLNNDW oHNPHNWHGLU $QFDN  \ÕOÕQGD EX WUHQGGH ELU NÕUÕOPD PH\GDQDJHOPLúYHUHWLP\DNODúÕNJLELELUD]DOÕúJ|VWHUPLúWLU.XúNXVX]NLEX WUHQGLQ NÕUÕOPDVÕQGD 7UNL\H¶GH \DúDQDQ HNRQRPLN NUL]LQ HWNLVL ROGXNoD \NVHNWLU <DúDQDQNUL]OHEHUDEHUVDQD\LUHWLPLGúHUHN|]HOOLNOHHOHNWULNUHWLPLQGHELUD]DOÕú PH\GDQDJHOPLúWLU

12 ùHNLO2:<ÕOODUøWLEDUL\OH7UNL\H¶GH.|PUhUHWLPL (milyon ton)

Kaynak: BP, 2011.

7UNL\H¶GH (7.%¶\H ED÷OÕ ROXS N|PU UHWLPLQL JHUoHNOHúWLUHQ LNL NXUXP YDUGÕU%XQODU7UNL\H7DúN|PU.XUXPXYH7UNL\H.|PUøúOHWPHOHUL¶GLUTTK, =RQJXOGDN KDY]DVÕQGDNL WDúN|PU UHWLPLQL JHUoHNOHúWLULUNHQ 7.ø EX E|OJH GÕúÕQGDNL OLQ\LW \R÷XQ ROPDNOD EHUDEHU UHWLP JHUoHNOHúWLUPHNWHGLU $QFDN 7UNL\H¶GH WDúN|PU YH OLQ\LW UHWLPL VDGHFH EX LNL NXUXOXúOD VÕQÕUOÕ GH÷LOGLU %XQODUÕQ\DQÕVÕUDNoN|OoHNOL|]HOVHNW|UHDLWN|PURFDNODUÕGDEXOXQPDNWDGÕU

'Q\D¶GD N|PU JHQHOOLNOH ÕVÕQPD YH HOHNWULN UHWLPL LoLQ NXOODQÕOPDNWDGÕU %XQXQOD EHUDEHU \NVHN NDORULOL ROPDVÕ QHGHQL\OH GR÷D\D FLGGL DQODPGD NDUERQGLRNVLWVDOÕQÕPÕ\DSPDNWDGÕU6HUDJD]ÕROXúXPXQXHQJHOOHPHNLoLQ|]HOOLNOH .\RWR SURWRNROQGHQ VRQUD ONHOHU HQHUML UHWPHN LoLQ EDúWD N|PU ROPDN ]HUH IRVLO \DNÕW NXOODQÕPÕQÕ D]DOWPD WUHQGLQH JLUPLúOHUGLU $QFDN EX GXUXP ONHOHULQ N|PUNXOODQÕPÕQGDQYD]JHoPHOHULDQODPÕQDJHOPHPHOHULGLU7UHQOHULQ\DNÕWÕRODUDN NXOODQÕOPDVÕ YH |]HOOLNOH ÕVÕQPDGD YH HOHNWULN UHWLPLQGH JHUHN \DSÕODQ GR÷DOJD] DOÕPDQODúPDODUÕJHUHNVHGR÷DOJD]DRODQWDOHELQDUWPDVÕ\ODEHUDEHUN|PUNXOODQÕPÕ \R÷XQRODUDNHOHNWULNHQHUMLVLUHWLPLQGHGLU

13 1.1.3. DR÷DOJD]

%LUEDúND\HQLOHQHPH\HQHQHUMLND\QD÷ÕGR÷DOJD]GÕUg]HOOLNOHVRQ\ÕOGD SHWURO YH N|PUH DOWHUQDWLI RODUDN JHUHN ÕVÕQPDGD JHUHNVH HOHNWULN UHWLPLQGH \NVHOHQ ELU WUHQGOH DQD HQHUML ND\QD÷Õ RODUDN NXOODQÕOPDNWDGÕU  \ÕOÕQGD  trilyon m3 RODQGR÷DOJD]UH]HUYPLNWDUÕ\ÕOÕQGD¶OLNDUWÕúODWULO\RQP3 RODUDNJHUoHNOHúPLúWLU (TPAO, 2012: 18). 'R÷DOJD]UHWLPLLOHLOJLOLoDOÕúPDODUKÕ]OÕ ELUúHNLOGHGHYDPHWPHNWHGLU Ancak DQ\D¶GDGR÷DOJD]UH]HUY|PU\ÕORODUDN tahmin edilmektedir.

7UNL\H¶GH  \ÕOÕQGDQ EX \DQD GR÷DOJD]ÕQ |QHPL YH NXOODQÕPÕ JLGHUHN DUWPÕúWÕU %X GXUXPXQ QHGHQL GQ\D genelinde azalan petrol rezervlerine alternatif HQHUML ND\QDNODUÕQÕQ GHYUH\H VRNXOPDVÕ 7UNL\H LoLQVH \DSÕODQ GR÷DOJD] DQODúPDODUÕGÕU  \ÕOÕQGDGR÷DOJD]WNHWLPLPLO\RQP3 LNHQ \ÕOÕVRQX itibariyle 39 milyar m3 RODUDNJHUoHNOHúPLúWLU (BP, 2011)%XQDNDUúÕOÕN7UNL\H¶QLQ GR÷DO JD] UHWLPL 73$2¶GDQ DOÕQDQ ELOJLOHU ÕúÕ÷ÕQGD  \ÕOÕ VRQX LWLEDUL\OH  milyon m3 RODUDN JHUoHNOHúPLúWLU $QFDN 3ø*0¶LQ YHULOHULQH J|UH 7UNL\H¶GHNL GR÷DOJD]UH]HUYOHULQHEDNÕOGÕ÷ÕQGDUH]HUYXDUGDNLJD]PLO\ar m3UHWLOHELOLUJD] 18 milyar m3 YH NDODQ UHWLOHELOLU JD] UH]HUYOHUL  PLO\DU P3 olarak tahmin edilmektedir. %X YHULOHU ÕúÕ÷ÕQGD YH EXJQN UHWLP NRúXOODUÕ\OD \XUWLoL GR÷DO JD] UH]HUYLQLQ\ÕOJLELELU|PUEXOXQPDNWDGÕU'R÷DOJD]NXOODQÕPÕQGDWPrezervler NXOODQÕOVDGDKL7UNL\H¶QLQDUWDQWNHWLPL\OHEHUDEHUGÕúDED÷ÕPOÕROGX÷XDúLNDUGÕU 7UNL\H¶GH GR÷DOJD] WHGDULNL LOHWLPL GD÷ÕWÕPÕ YH VDWÕú LúOHPOHUL LOH SHWURO WDúÕPDFÕOÕ÷ÕIDDOL\HWOHULQLVUGUHQNXUXP%RUX+DWODUÕLOH3HWURO7DúÕPD$ù*HQHl 0GUO÷¶GU <DSÕODQ DQODúPDODU LOH GR÷DOJD] DU] YH WDOHELQGHNL EX DoÕN IDUNOÕ ONHOHUGHQLWKDOHGLOHUHNNDSDWÕOPDNWDGÕU

 \ÕOÕ LWLEDUL\OH 7UNL\H 5XV\D )HGHUDV\RQX &H]D\LU 1LMHU\D øUDQ YH $]HUED\FDQ¶GDQGR÷DOJD]LWKDOHWPHNWHGLU'R÷DOJD]DOÕPDQODúPDODUÕYHPLNWDUODUÕ Tablo ¶de J|VWHULOPLúWLU %27$ù¶WDQ HOGH HGLOHQ EX ELOJLOHU ÕúÕ÷ÕQGD GR÷DOJD] LWKDODWÕQÕQHQE\NWHGDULNoLVL5XV\D)HGHUDV\RQX¶GXU$QFDNEXWDEORGDNLELOJLOHUH J|UH 5XV\D LOH  \ÕOÕQGD \ÕOGD  PLO\DU P3 GR÷DOJD] DOÕP DQODúPDVÕ YH  \ÕOÕQGD ELWHFHNWLU 'LNNDW HGLOPHVL JHUHNHQ HQ |QHPOL QRNWD  \ÕOÕ LWLEDUL\OH  milyar m3 GR÷DOJD]WNHWLOLUNHQ\DSÕODQve devrede olan DQODúPDODUJHUH÷L\ÕOGD51.8

14 milyar m3GR÷DOJD] DOÕPÕ V|] NRQXVXGXU <DNODúÕN  PLO\DU P3 GR÷DOJD] 7UNL\H¶GH \HWHUOL GHSRODPD DODQODUÕ EXOXQPDGÕ÷Õ LoLQ 7UNL\H¶\H JHOPHPHNWHGLU $QODúPDODUÕQ QLWHOL÷L JHUH÷L NXOODQÕOPD\DQ GR÷DOJD]ÕQ PDOL\HWOHUL LOJLOL ONHOHUH |GHQPHNWHGLU %X GXUXP 7UNL\H HNRQRPLVL DoÕVÕQGDQ oRN FLGGL ELU GXUXPGXU <DSÕODQ GR÷DOJD] DQODúPDODUÕQÕQ PLNWDU DoÕVÕQGDQ EX NDGDU IDUNOÕ ROPDVÕQÕQ VHEHSOHULQGHQ ELUL |QFHNL KNPHWOHULQ HQHUML SURMHNVL\RQODUÕQGD FLGGL KDWDODU \DSPDVÕGÕU 8OXVODUDUDVÕ DQODúPDODUÕQ WHN WDUDIOÕ L\LOHúWLULOPH\H JLGLOPHVL JLEL ELU GXUXP ]RU RODFD÷ÕQGDQ |WU 7UNL\H¶GH JHUHN NRQXWODUGD ÕVÕQPD JHUHNVH HOHNWULN UHWLPL YH GR÷DOJD] GHSRODPD DODQODUÕQÕQ NXUXOPDVÕ\OD LOJLOL |QHPOL JHOLúPHOHU mevcuttur. Tablo 2: 7UNL\H¶QLQhONHOHUOH2ODQ'R÷DOJD]$QODúPDODUÕQÕQ0LNWDUYH6UHOHUL Mevcut $QODúPDODU Miktar (Milyar m3/yÕO øP]DODQPD Tarihi 6UH <ÕO Durumu 5XV\D)HGHUDV\RQX%DWÕ Cezayir (LNG) Nijerya (LNG) øUDQ

Rusya Federasyonu (Karadeniz) 5XV\D)HGHUDV\RQX%DWÕ 7UNPHQLVWDQ Azerbaycan 6 4 1.2 10 16 8 16 6.6 ùXEDW 14 Nisan 1988 .DVÕP $÷XVWRV6 $UDOÕN ùXEDW 0D\ÕV 12 Mart 2001 25 20 22 25 25 23 30 15 Devrede Devrede Devrede Devrede Devrede Devrede - Devrede Toplam 67.8 Kaynak: %27$ù

ùHNLO ¶GH LVH 7UNL\H¶QLQ  \ÕOÕQGDQ LWLEDUHQ DQODúPDOÕ ONHOHUOH RODQ GR÷DOJD] LWKDODWÕQÕ J|VWHUPHNWHGLU ùSKHVL] NL 7UNL\H¶QLQ HQ E\N GR÷DOJD] WHGDULNoLVL WP GQ\DQÕQ GD ROGX÷X JLEL 5XV\D )HGHUDV\RQX¶GXU 7UNL\H¶QLQ FR÷UDIL NRQXPX LWLEDUL\OH Orta Asya YH 5XV\D¶QÕQ GR÷DOJD] DU]ÕQÕ WDOHS HGHQ ONHOHUHXODúWÕUDELOPHVLLoLQoHúLWli GR÷DOJD]WDúÕPDDQODúPDODUÕ\DSÕOPÕúWÕU7UNL\H ]HULQGHQWDúÕQDQEXGR÷DOJD]VD\HVLQGHONHHNRQRPLVLQH\NVHNPLNWDUODUGDNDWNÕ VD÷ODQPDNWDGÕU

15 ùHNLO <ÕOODUøWLEDUL\OHhONHOHUH*|UHøWKDO(GLOHQ'R÷DOJD]0LNWDUODUÕ (milyon m3

)

.D\QDN%27$ù

gQP]GHNL \ÕOODUGD GDKD GD DUWPDVÕ EHNOHQHQ GR÷DOJD] WNHWLPL GLNNDWH DOÕQGÕ÷ÕQGD 7UNL\H¶QLQ PHYFXW GR÷DOJD] úHEHNH DOW \DSÕVÕQÕQ JHOLúWLULOPHVL EX DPDoOD %27$ù¶ÕQ JoOHQGLULOPHVL YH \HQL GR÷DOJD] DOÕP V|]OHúPHOHUL \DSDELOPHVL gerekmektedir (TMMOB, 2010: 32(QHUMLLWKDOHGHQONHOHULoLQ|QHPOLELUXQVXU RODQ DU] JYHQOL÷LQLQ VD÷ODQDELOPHVL YH DO \D GD |GH úHNOLQGHNL V|]OHúPHOHULQ HQ HWNLQ ELoLPGH GH÷HUOHQGLULOHELOPHVL LoLQ 7UNL\H¶GH \HQL GHSRODPD WHVLVOHULQH YH LOHWLPKDWODUÕQDRODQ\DWÕUÕPODUÕQGHYDPOÕROPDVÕE\NELU|QHPWHúNLOHWPHNWHGLU

7UNL\H¶GH HQHUML DoÕ÷ÕQÕ NDSDWPDN LoLQ GR÷DOgaz, \HQL HQHUML ND\QDNODUÕQÕQ NDSDVLWHOHULQLQJHOLúPHVLQGHELUoRNJHUHNVLQLPLoLQ\D\JÕQRODUDNNXOODQÕOPDNWDGÕU .ÕOÕo YH .D\D  \DSPÕú ROGXNODUÕ oDOÕúPDGD EX JHUHNVLQLPOHUL G|UW EDúOÕNWD WRSODPÕúODUGÕU%XQODUN|PUOLQ\LWYHSHWUROGHQGDKDD]oHYUH\HVDOÕQÕPEÕUDNWÕ÷Õ LoLQ oHYUHVHO QHGHQ 7UNL\H¶QLQ 2UWD 'R÷X 0HUNH] $V\D YH 5XV\D Federasyonu JLEL oRN ]HQJLQ \HUDOWÕ ND\QDNODUÕQD VDKLS RODQ ONHOHUH \DNÕQ ROGX÷X LoLQ FR÷UDIL QHGHQ VÕQÕUODUÕ YH GHQL]OHUL QHGHQL\OH WUDQVLW JHoLúOHUOH SHWURO YH JD] WDúÕPDFÕOÕ÷Õ \DSDQONHOHUGHQJHoLúYHWDúÕPDFUHWOHULDOGÕ÷ÕQGDQHNRQRPLNQHGHQYHVRQRODUDN oRN E\N JD] LKUDFDWoÕODUÕ RODQ +D]DU YH 0HUNH] $V\D ONHOHUL\OH JoO LOLúNLOHU NXUPDN LoLQ SROLWLN QHGHQOHU RODUDN EHOLUWPLúOHUGLU $QFDN JHoPLúWH \DSÕODQ \DQOÕú GR÷DOJD] SURMHNVL\RQODUÕ GD J|] |QQH DOÕQDUDN YH \HWHUOL GHSRODPD YH NXOODQÕP DODQÕ JHOLúWLULOPHGHQ 7UNL\H¶QLQ \HQL GR÷DOJD] DQODúPDODUÕ \DSPDVÕ VRQ GHUHFe \DQOÕúRODFDNWÕU

16 1.1.4. NNOHHU Enerji

<HQLOHQHPH\HQHQHUMLND\QDNODUÕQÕQúSKHVL]HQWDUWÕúPDOÕDQFDNELURNDGDU \NVHN HQHUML SRWDQVL\HOLQH VDKLS RODQ HQHUML WU QNOHHU HQHUMLGLU Yeni enerji ND\QDNODUÕ DUDVÕQGD WHNQRORMLVL HQ oRN JHOLúHQ QNOHHU HQHUML ROPXúWXU 7XQFHU YH (VNLEDOFÕ  Ercan, 1996, Aybars, 190) %X WHNQRORMLQLQ JHOLúPHVL\OH EHUDEHU ONHOHUHKDWWDGQ\D\DDYDQWDMODUÕNDGDUGH]DYDQWDMODUÕQÕGDEHUDEHULQGHJHWLUPLúWLU

1NOHHUHQHUMLoRNNoNPLNWDUGDHQHUML JLUGLVL\OH \NVHNPLNWDUda enerji DoÕ÷D oÕNPDVÕQÕ VD÷ODU 7LSLN ELU UHDNW|UGH  NJ XUDQ\XPGDQ HOGH HGLOHQ ILV\RQ HQHUMLVLLOHWRQRGXQWRQN|PUWRQSHWUROYHWRQOLNLWGR÷DOJD]GDQHOGH edLOHQHQHUMLHúGH÷HUGLU (TAEK, 2010: 7). $\UÕFDQNOHHUVDQWUDOOHULQVHUDJD]Õetkisi, GL÷HU \HQLOHQHPH\HQ HQHUML ND\QDNODUÕQD J|UH ROGXNoD GúNWU 8UDQ\XP DWÕNODUÕ N|PUSHWUROYHGR÷DOJD]DWÕNODUÕQGDQIDUNOÕRODUDNJHULG|QúPVD\HVLQGHWHNUDU NXOODQÕODELOLU <HQLOHQHELOLU HQHUML ND\QDNODUÕQD J|UH DYDQWDMÕ LVH WHSNLPHOHUGHQ VRQUD DoÕ÷D oÕNDUGÕ÷Õ HQHUML oRN \NVHN ROGX÷X LoLQ JQHú SDQHOL YH U]JDU VDQWUDOOHULQLQNDSVDGÕ÷ÕDODQDJ|UHoRNoRND]\HUNDSODPDNWDGÕU Bunlara ek olarak EDNÕPYHLúOHWLPJLGHUOHULGHGL÷HUHQHUMLND\QDNODUÕQDJ|UHROGXNoDD]GÕU

1NOHHU HQHUML LoLQ EDKVHGLOHQ DYDQWDMODUÕQ \DQÕQGD GH]DYDQWDMODUÕ GD EXOXQPDNWDGÕU 2ODVÕ ELU UHDNW|U ND]DVÕ VRQUDVÕQGD LQVDQ VD÷OÕ÷Õ LoLQ VRQ GHUHFH WHKOLNHOLVRQXoODUPH\GDQD JHOPHNWHGLU5DG\RDNWLIÕúÕPDODUFDQOÕ'1$¶VÕQÕGLUHNW RODUDN HWNLOHGL÷L LoLQ organizmalarda kalÕFÕ KDVWDOÕNODUD \D GD úHNLO ER]XNOXNODUÕQÕ meydana getirmektedir. $\UÕFD V|] NRQXVX ]DUDUOÕ ÕúÕPDODU \D÷PXU EXOXWODUÕ LOH WDúÕQDELOGLNOHULLoLQVDGHFHND]DQÕQROGX÷XE|OJH\LGH÷LOWP\HUNUH\LWHKGLWDOWÕQGD EÕUDNPDNWDGÕU )L]LNVHO DWÕNODUÕ oRN D] PLNWDUGD ROPDVÕQD UD÷PHQ ROXúWXUGX÷X SRWDQVL\HOWHKOLNHVLGL÷HUNDWÕ\DNÕWODUÕQDWÕNODUÕ\ODNÕ\DVODQDPD]GHUHFHGHGLU

,$($¶GDQ DOÕQDQ ELOJLOHUOH GQ\D JHQHOLQGH LúOHWPHGH RODQ  UHDNW|UGHQ WRSODPGD  0: WRSODP QHW NXUXOX NDSDVLWH ROXS  UHDNW|U LQúD halindedir. ùHNLO ¶den de J|UOHFH÷L ]HUH GQ\D JHQHOLQGH HQ ID]OD UHDNW|UH VDKLS RODQ ONH $PHULND%LUOHúLN'HYOHWOHUL¶GLU'LNNDWHGLOPHVLJHUHNHQELUGL÷HU|QHPOLQRNWDLVH dLQ+DON&XPKXUL\HWL¶QLQLQúDKDOLQGHRODQUHDNW|UGU

17 ùHNLO 1NOHHU6DQWUDOH6DKLS2ODQhONHOHU Kaynak: IAEA *HOLúPLúONHOHUQNOHHUHQHUMLDU]ÕQGDQYD]JHoHPHPHNWHGLUOHUdQNFLGGL DQODPGDELUHQHUMLDU]ÕV|]NRQXVXGXU1NOHHUUHDNW|UOHULQNXUXOPDVÕYHLúOHWLOPHVL ONHQLQVDGHFHNHQGLE|OJHVLQLQVRUXPOXOX÷XDOWÕQGDRODQELUNRQXGH÷LOGLU5HDNW|U ROPD\DQ YH |]HOOLNOH NRPúX ONHOHU LoLQ GH FLGGL DQODPGD WHKGLW LoHUPHNWHGLUOHU 'ROD\ÕVÕ\ODøUDQ(UPHQLVWDQ%XOJDULVWDQ8NUD\QD5XV\DJLEL7UNL\H¶QLQNRPúXVX RODQ ONHOHUGHNL UHDNW|UOHUGHQ YH RODVÕ ND]DODUGDQ 7UNiye direkt olarak etkilenecektir.

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18 NDQXQXQ NDOGÕUÕOPDPDVÕ´ LoLQ KDON R\ODPDVÕQGD NDWÕOÕPFÕODUÕQ ¶LQGHQ µHYHW¶ FHYDEÕQÕ DOPÕúWÕU øVYLoUH GH $OPDQ\D JLEL V|] NRQXVX ND]DGDQ KHPHQ VRQUD DOGÕ÷Õ NDUDUOD  \ÕOÕQGDQ VRQUD WP QNOHHU Jo VDQWUDOOHULQL GXUGXUPD NDUDUÕ DOPÕúWÕU ùHNLO ¶GHQ GH J|UOHFH÷L ]HUH øQJLOWHUH YH $OPDQ\D WRSODPGD  UHDNW|U WDPDPHQNDSDWPÕúWÕU$QFDNWDPDQODPÕ\ODQNOHHUHQHUMLGHQYD]JHoPHPLúWLU

7UNL\H¶GH DoÕODFDN RODQ QNOHHU HQHUML VDQWUDOOHUL NRQXVXQGD WDUWÕúPDODU halen daha devam etmektedir. (Q|QHPOLWDUWÕúPDQRNWDODUÕV|]NRQXVXVDQWUDOOHULQ LúOHWLOPHVL\DEDQFÕúLUNHWOHULQLQNRQWUROQGHROPDVÕKDPPDGGHQLQLWKDOHGLOPHVLYH oHYUHVHOVRUXQODUGÕU7UNL\H¶QLQJLWWLNoHDUWDQHQHUMLWDOHELQHELUo|]PEXOPDOÕGÕU 0DDOHVHI \HWHUVL] WHNQRORML YH \DWÕUÕPODUOD V|] NRQXVX DoÕ÷ÕQ NDSDQPDVÕ ROGXNoD JoWU g]HOOLNOH VDQD\L VHNW|U LoLQ DQD JLUGL ND\QD÷Õ RODQ HQHUML UHWLPLQLQ D] ROPDVÕ 7UNL\H¶QLQ E\PH UDNDPODUÕQÕ ELU QRNWDGD VDELWOH\HFHNWLU 'ROD\ÕVÕ\OD VRUJXODQPDVÕ JHUHNHQ KXVXV 7UNL\H¶QLQ oHYUHVHO YH LQVDQ VD÷OÕ÷Õ \|QQGH hareket HGHFH÷L \RNVD LQVDQODUÕQ UHIDK G]H\OHULQL ONHQLQ JHOLúPLúOLN DQODPÕQGD DUWWÕUPDVÕGÕU

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1.1.5. Bor

7UNL\H LoLQ oRN E\N VWUDWHMLN |QHPH VDKLS RODQ ELU PLQHUDO RODQ ERUXQ YDUOÕ÷Õ 5RPDOÕODUD NDGDU X]DQPDVÕQD UD÷PHQ 7UNL\H¶GH LON GHID  \ÕOÕQGD bulunPXúWXU %RU PDGHQL LNL \] HOOL\H \DNÕQ VDQD\L UQQGH NXOODQÕOPDNWDGÕU g]HOOLNOH GHWHUMDQ VDEXQ VHUDPLNL FDP YH NLP\D VHNW|UOHUL EDúWD ROPDN ]HUH NXOODQÕODQ EX PDGHQLQ GQ\D UH]HUYOHULQLQ \DNODúÕN ¶VL 7UNL\H¶GHGLU 7UNL\H

19 GÕúÕQGDNL ONHOHUGH GQ\DQÕQ DQFDN - \ÕOOÕN LKWL\DFÕQÕ NDUúÕOD\DFDN RODQ ERU UH]HUYOHUL EXOXQXUNHQ 7UNL\H¶GHNL ERU GQ\DQÕQ KLoELU \HULQGH UHWLP \DSÕOPDVD ELOHGQ\D\D\ÕO\HWHFHNNDSDVLWHGHGLU$FDUR÷OX: 27).

%RU X]D\ YH KDYD DUDoODUÕ QNOHHU X\JXODPDODU DVNHUL DUDoODU \DNÕWODU HOHNWURQLNYHLOHWLúLPVHNW|UWDUÕPFDPVDQD\LNLP\DYHGHWHUMDQVHNW|UVHUDPLN ve polimerik malzemHOHUQDQRWHNQRORMLOHURWRPRWLYYHHQHUMLVHNW|UPHWDOXUMLYH LQúDDWJLELSHNoRNDODQGDNXOODQÕOPDNWDGÕU 7NHWLOHQERUUQOHULQLQ¶D\DNÕQÕ FDP \DOÕWÕP WLSL FDP HO\DIÕ WHNVWLO WLSL FDP HO\DIÕ ERURVLOLNDW FDP VHUDPLN-firit, WDUÕPYHGHWHUMDQVHNW|UOHULQGH\R÷XQODúPÕúWÕU(7ø: 4).Tablo 3 GQ\DGDNLERU UH]HUYOHUL YHULOPLúWLU 'Q\DGDNL WRSODP ERU UH]HUYOHULQH EDNÕOGÕ÷ÕQGD 7UNL\H¶\L Rusya ve A.B.D. takip edilmektedir. 'Q\D ERU UHWLP NDSDVLWHOHUL LQFHOHQGL÷LQGH LVH 7UNL\H  ELQ WRQ NDSDVLWH LOH ELULQFL VÕUDGD $%'  ELQ WRQ LOH LNLQFL VÕUDGD \HU DOPDNWDGÕU 'Q\DGDNL UHWLP PLNWDUODUÕ LQFHOHQGL÷LQGH LVH  \ÕOÕQGD ELU|QFHNL\ÕODJ|UH\DNODúÕNDUWDUDNPLO\RQWRQ7UNL\H¶GHLVHGQ\D UHWLPLQLQSD\LOH birinci VÕUDGD\HUDOPDNWDGÕU.

Tablo 3: hONHOHU%D]ÕQGD'Q\DGDNL%RU5H]HUYOHUL (bin ton)

hONHOHU Toplam rezerv 'D÷ÕOÕP

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20 +LGURMHQHQHUMLVLUHWLPLQGHNXOODQÕOPDVÕJLGHUHNDUWPDNWDGÕU<DSÕVÕQGDERU ROXS KLGURMHQ DGVRUEH HGHQ YH DoÕ÷D oÕNDUDQ oHúLWOL PDGGHOHU ROPDVÕQD UD÷PHQ EX konuda V|] VDKLEL RODQ ERU ELOHúLNOHUL ERUKLGUUOHUGLU 8VOX  418).%XQODUÕQ LoHULVLQGHHQ|QHPOLVLRODQVRG\XPERUKLGUURGDVÕFDNOÕ÷ÕQGDVXLOH\NVHNEDVÕQo ROPDGDQ UHDNVL\RQD JLUHU YH KLGURMHQ UHWLU )DNLUR÷OXYH GL÷HUOHUL, 2004: 1373). +LGURMHQOH oDOÕúDQ DUDoODUGD VRG\XP ERUKLGUU NXOODQÕPÕ \D\JÕQGÕU $QFDN VRG\XP ERUKLGUU NXOODQÕPÕQÕQ PDOL\HWL EHQ]LQ PDOL\HWLQLQ \DNODúÕN  NDWÕGÕU 2ZHQ 2005). %RU \QÕ ]DPDQGD \DNÕW SLOL RODUDN GD HQHUML UHWLPLQH NDWNÕ VD÷ODPDNWDGÕU 'R÷UXGDQ VRG\XP ERUKLGUUO \DNÕW SLOL |]HOOLNOH Jo JHUHNVLQLPL GúN RODQ WDúÕQDELOLUVLYLOWHOHIRQUDG\RNoNWHOHYL]\RQHOVSUJHVLYEYHDVNHULORNDO D\GÕQODWPDVH\\DUWHOVL]WHOHIRQHOHNWURQLNKDUSFLKD]ODUÕSHUVRQHOÕVÕWPDLQVDQVÕ] DUDoODUYEX\JXODPDODUGD|QHPe sahiptir (MAM, 2006: 6). %WQEXQODUDHNRODUDN ERUHQHUMLUHWLPLQGHPRWRUOXWDúÕWODUGDNDWNÕPDGGHVLRODUDNGDNXOODQÕOPDNWDGÕU

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21 NXOODQÕOPDVÕQGDQ ]L\DGH WLFDUHWL\OH ID\GD VD÷ODQPD\D JLGLOGL÷LQL DoÕNoD J|VWHUPHNWHGLU

1.2. <(1ø/(1(%ø/ø5 (1(5-ø KAYNAKLARI

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7UNL\H \HQLOHQHELOLU HQHUML ND\QDNODUÕ EDNÕPÕQGDQ oRN oHúLWOL ND\QDNODUD sahiptir. $QFDN\HQLOHQHELOLUHQHUMLND\QDNODUÕQÕQPDOL\HWRODUDNGH]DYDQWDMOÕROPDVÕ EX HQHUMLOHULQ NXOODQÕPÕQÕQ \D\JÕQODúPDPDVÕQÕQ HQ E\N QHGHQLGLU dDNÕUR÷OX 2009: 15). 7UNL\H¶QLQDQD\HQLOHQHELOLUHQHUMLND\QDNODUÕ yakacak odun ve hidrolik enerjidir (Kaygusuz, 2003: 1675). =HQJLQ ELWNL |UWV YH IDUNOÕ LNOLP NRúXOODUÕQD GD\DOÕ RODUDN |]HOOLNOH $NGHQL] YH *QH\GR÷X $QDGROX %|OJHOHUL¶QGH \ÕOOÕN JQHúOHQPH VUHOHUL GH GLNNDWH DOÕQDUDN \HQLOHQHELOLU HQHUML ND\QDNODUÕQGDQ JQHú HQHUMLVL UHWLPLQLQ V|] NRQXVX E|OJHOHUGH HWNLQ KDOH JHWLULOPHVL GH HOHNWULN HQHUMLVL WDOHELQGHFLGGLELU\NQKDILIOHWLOPHVLQHRODQDNVD÷OD\DFDNWÕU

1.2.1. Elektrik Enerjisi

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