WHAT DO THE NEW TURKISH GDP SERIES IMPLY FOR ECONOMISTS?

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(34) Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar (650) Aralk 2019: 29-50. Figure 5: Rate of revision and real GDP by old and new series.. Indexed Real GDP by Old and New Series (2009=100), Rate of Revision 200,0 150,0 100,0 50,0 0,0. New Series. Old Series. Rate of Revision. Source: TURKSTAT online database and own calculations.. Since the extent of revision is not uniform across all production sectors or all expenditure groups, varying growth rates also change the relative weights of components of GDP. Therefore what economists had thought they knew about Turkish economy in terms of sectoral composition of output and saving-investment-consumption dynamics happened to be “all wrong”. Following the announcement of new series, economists interested in Turkish economy must have felt baffled having realized that their models had no explanatory power, parameters in their estimates were statistically insignificant and policy suggestions they had formulated so far were most optimistically irrelevant. As mentioned many times already, economic analyses conducted so far happened to be “wrong” and are becoming even “more wrong” every quarter. As the magnitude of revisions on GDP series and its components increases, the economic picture becomes even more different than those economists had in their minds so far. For instance, prior to December 2016 no one would object to the assertion that Turkish economy is a consumption-driven economy with structural saving deficits and high dependence on inflow of foreign savings. However the series depict a much different investment-driven economy with saving rates reaching one fourth of GDP. The chart in Figure 6 depicts the change in saving rates of selected OECD countries by van de Ven (2015). Switzerland seems to have experienced the most significant jump (close to 5%) in saving rate by far. 37.

(35) What Do The New Turkish Gdp Series Imply For Economists?. Figure 6: Overall impact of extra revisions in saving rates.. Source: van de Ven, 2015.. However the revision rate in domestic savings of Turkey is 50.8% for the period 19982015 which leads to a 10.5% jump in saving rate. Accordingly in the old series, total domestic saving rate was 13.83% in 2009 and 15.23% in 2015. It has risen to 22.23% and 25.72% in new series, respectively (Yükseler, 2017). Recently, it has been accepted that one of the main problems of Turkish economy was the insufficient domestic savings. Therefore the economic policies such as Compulsory Private Pension System which increases the savings have been implemented by the government. However, the domestic savings data in new series indicate that the saving rate is not low; on the contrary it is higher than the world average. Figure 7: Rate of Revision in Gross Capital Formation (% of Value in Old Series). Rate of Revision in Gross Capital Formation (% of Value in Old Series) 80 60 40 20 0. Source: TURKSTAT online database and own calculations. 38.

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(42) Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar (650) Aralk 2019: 29-50. Same issue, though not as significant, is observed also in services and manufacturing sectors. As of 2015 productivity index for services reaches 109.6 in new series and only to 103.6 in old series. Figure 9: Productivity in Services by Old and New Series. Productivity Index in Services (2009=100) 112 110 108 106 104 102 100 98 96 94 92 2005. 2006. 2007. 2008. 2009. New Series. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. 2014. 2015. Old Series. Source: TURKSTAT online database and own calculations. The 2009-based productivity index in manufacturing calculated by new series reaches 129.6 by 2015 while the same index calculated by old series reaches only to 111.5.. 41.

(43) What Do The New Turkish GDP Series Imply For Economists?. )LJXUH3URGXFWLYLW\LQ0DQXIDFWXULQJ6HFWRUE\2OGDQG1HZ6HULHV . Productivity Index in Manufacturing (2009=100). 140 120 100 80 60 40 . 20 0 2005. . 2006. 2007. 2008. 2009. New Series. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. 2014. 2015. Old Series. 6RXUFH785.67$7RQOLQHGDWDEDVHDQGRZQFDOFXODWLRQV. $QRWKHULPSDFWRIWKHUHYLVLRQLQ*'3VHULHVLVWKDWHFRQRPLVWVVHHPWRKDYHORVWWKH FORVHOLQNEHWZHHQLQGXVWULDOSURGXFWLRQLQGH[DQGHFRQRPLFJURZWK*LYHQWKDWLQGXVWULDO SURGXFWLRQ LQGH[ LV FDOFXODWHG DQG DQQRXQFHG RQ D PRQWKO\ EDVLV ZKLOH *'3 ILJXUHV DUH DQQRXQFHG TXDUWHUO\ LQGXVWULDO SURGXFWLRQ LQGLFHV ZHUH XVHG DV DQ HIIHFWLYH OHDGLQJ LQGLFDWRU7KHFRHIILFLHQWRIFRUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQWKHDQQXDOSHUFHQWDJHFKDQJHLQLQGXVWULDO SURGXFWLRQLQGH[DQGWKDWLQRYHUDOO*'3ZDVDVRXQG:KLFKLPSOLHGWKDWLQGXVWULDO SURGXFWLRQLQGH[FRXOGHIIHFWLYHO\EHXVHGDVDOHDGLQJLQGLFDWRUIRU*'3JURZWKDVZHOODV PDQXIDFWXULQJRXWSXW. 42.

(44) Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar (650) Aralk 2019: 29-50. Figure 11: Relation between Industrial Production Index and Economic Growth in Old Series. Growth Rates in Old Series 20,0 15,0 10,0 5,0 0,0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 -5,0 -10,0 -15,0 Industry Production Index. Manufacturing (Old GDP Series). Overall GDP (Old GDP Series). Source: TURKSTAT online database and own calculations. Following the announcement of the new GDP series this coefficient of correlation dropped to 0,895 and growth of industrial production index series diverged from manufacturing output and GDP growth:. 43.

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(47) Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar (650) Aralk 2019: 29-50. Figure 13: Relation between the New Industrial Production Index and Economic Growth in New Series. Annual Growth Rates in New Series 20 15 10 5 2018. 2017. 2016. 2015. 2014. 2013. 2012. 2011. 2010. 2009. 2008. 2007. 2006. 2005. 2004. 2003. 2002. -10. 2001. -5. 2000. 0. -15 Industry Production Index (New). Manufacturing (New GDP Series). Overall GDP (New GDP Series). Source: TURKSTAT online database and own calculations. 4. Conclusion and Suggestions It is a requirement that statistical authorities update their methodologies used in calculation of GDP since structure of an economy is always subject to change. While the context and relative weights of certain economic activities change, new assumptions and methods are developed. It is considered as a requirement that method and contents of national income be revised every five or ten years as a consequence of changes in magnitudes of economic activities, changes in relative prices, emerging conditions in economic and social phenomena, and increasing role of information and communication technologies. Within this context all OECD members changed their system of national accounting and adapted ESA-2010 methodology. Consequently almost all OECD members had upward revisions in their GDP series. However economists, policy makers and decision makers in those economies could continue to use their research methods, ways of reasoning and habits in forming their expectations. In the case for EU countries, one may observe that even though overall volumes have moderately increased after transition to ESA 2010 standards, 45.

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