1876-6102 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the International Scientific Conference “Environmental and Climate Technologies”. doi: 10.1016/j.egypro.2017.04.023 Energy Procedia 113 ( 2017 ) 82 – 89
ScienceDirect
,QWHUQDWLRQDO6FLHQWLILF&RQIHUHQFH³(QYLURQPHQWDODQG&OLPDWH7HFKQRORJLHV´&21(&7
±2FWREHU5LJD/DWYLD
5HGXFWLRQRIHQHUJ\FRVWVDQGWUDIILFIORZUDWHLQXUEDQORJLVWLFVSURFHVV
2PHU)DUXN*RUFXQ
Kadir Has University, Kadir Has University Campus, Selimpasa – Silivri, Istanbul, 34590, Turkey
$EVWUDFW
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³(QYLURQPHQWDODQG &OLPDWH7HFKQRORJLHV Keywords:HQHUJ\FRVWVWUDIILFIORZUDWHFRQJHVWLRQPDUJLQDOFRVWV ,QWURGXFWLRQ 7KHWUDIILFIORZUDWHLVRQHRIWKHIDFWRUVDIIHFWLQJWKHHQHUJ\FRVWVRIWUDQVSRUWDWLRQDFWLYLWLHV7KHUHLVDVLJQLILFDQW FRUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQWKHWUDIILFIORZUDWHDQGHQHUJ\FRVWVRIWUDQVSRUWDWLRQWUDIILFYROXPHVLQXUEDQDUHDVFDQLQIOXHQFH &RUUHVSRQGLQJDXWKRU7HOID[
E-mail address:RPHUJRUFXQ#NKDVHGXWU
© 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the International Scientific Conference “Environmental and Climate Technologies”.
WKHHQHUJ\FRVWVRIWUDQVSRUWDWLRQGLUHFWO\RULQGLUHFWO\)URPWKLVSHUVSHFWLYHWUDIILFIORZUDWHFDQEHHYDOXDWHGDVD YDULDEOHIRUHQHUJ\FRVWV2QWKHRWKHUKDQGVLQFHWKHWUDIILFIORZPD\HDVLO\FKDQJHLWLVGLIILFXOWWRPHDVXUHLWV LPSDFW7KLVSDSHUIRFXVHVRQWKHHIIHFWVRIWKHFKDQJHVLQWUDIILFIORZLQPDUJLQDOHQHUJ\FRVWVRIWUDQVSRUWDWLRQDQG ORJLVWLFVDFWLYLWLHVDVZHOODVLPSDFWVRIWUDIILFYROXPHRQWRWDOHQHUJ\FRVWV,QWKLVSDSHULWLVDUJXHGWKDWLIWKHWUDIILF IORZ UDWH GHFUHDVHV WR D FHUWDLQ OHYHO XQLW HQHUJ\ FRVWV RI WUDQVSRUWDWLRQ FDQ EHFRPH XQEHDUDEOH $FFRUGLQJO\ GHFUHDVHVLQWUDIILFIORZPD\FDXVHDQHJDWLYHHIIHFWRQWKHHQHUJ\FRVWDQGLWPD\OHDGWRDQLQFUHDVHLQPDUJLQDO HQHUJ\FRVW7UDIILFIORZUDWHDQGYROXPHRQDVSHFLILFURXWHPD\YDU\GHSHQGLQJRQDQXPEHURIIDFWRUVDQGYDULDEOHV 7KHVHYDULDEOHVFDQEHOLVWHGDVIROORZVWKHQXPEHURIYHKLFOHVRQWKHURXWHWKHQXPEHURILQWHUVHFWLRQVWKHSHDN KRXUVRIWKHURXWHWKHQXPEHURIUHVLGHQWLDODQGVRFLDODUHDVDURXQGWKHKLJKZD\W\SHVDQGFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIYHKLFOHV LQWUDIILFGULYHUEHKDYLRUV7KHVHIDFWRUVPD\EHDIIHFWHGE\WKHWUDIILFYROXPHWRJHWKHURULQGLYLGXDOO\7KHWUDIILF IORZUDWHFDQEHGHFLVLYHLQWKHIRUPDWLRQRIWRWDOFRVWVRIORJLVWLFVDQGWUDQVSRUWDWLRQ$GGLWLRQDOO\LWVLPSDFWVRQ HQHUJ\FRVWVPD\EHPHDVXUHGDWWKHPLFUROHYHO$FFRUGLQJWRYDULRXVWUDGLWLRQDODVVXPSWLRQVZKHQWUDIILFVORZV GRZQHQHUJ\FRQVXPSWLRQRIHDFKYHKLFOHLQFUHDVHV$OWKRXJKWKLVSURSRVLWLRQLVWUXHLWGRHVQRWDOORZDQDQDO\VLV DWWKHPDFUROHYHO$GLIIHUHQWVHWRIGDWDLVQHFHVVDU\IRUDQDQDO\VLVLQDEURDGHUSHUVSHFWLYH$VDUHVXOWVRPH YDULDEOHVVXFKDVWRWDOHQHUJ\FRQVXPSWLRQREWDLQHGIURPRIILFLDOVRXUFHVWKHQXPEHURIYHKLFOHVRQWKHURXWHWKH JUDGXDOIORZRIWUDIILFWLPHVRIGD\ZKHQWKHURXWHLVXVHGDVZHOODVWKHGLVWDQFHVPD\EHEHQHILFLDOIRUWKLVDQDO\VLV 7KLV UHVHDUFK LV EDVHG RQ WKH ILHOG VWXGLHV ZKLFK UHODWHG WR WKH ,VWDQEXO FLW\ 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG REVHUYDWLRQ DQG DQDO\VLVDUHZLWKLQWKHVFRSHRIWKLVUHVHDUFK /LWHUDWXUH 7KHUHDUHPDQ\VWXGLHVDERXWWUDQVSRUWDWLRQDQGWUDIILFPDQDJHPHQWIRFXVLQJRQHQHUJ\FRQVXPSWLRQ7KHVHVWXGLHV WU\LQJWRHVWDEOLVKDOLQNEHWZHHQSHUIRUPDQFHDQGHIILFLHQF\RIORJLVWLFVRSHUDWLRQVDQGHQHUJ\FRQVXPSWLRQIRFXVRQ HQHUJ\FRQVXPSWLRQDWWKHPLFUROHYHO7KHLQFUHDVHLQWKHHQHUJ\FRQVXPSWLRQLQHDFKYHKLFOHOHDGVWRQHJDWLYHHIIHFWV RQWKHHIILFLHQF\DQGSURGXFWLYLW\RIORJLVWLFVDQGWUDQVSRUWDWLRQRSHUDWLRQV7KHPDMRULW\RIWKHVHVWXGLHVDUJXHWKDWLI HQHUJ\FRQVXPSWLRQLVUHGXFHGSHUIRUPDQFHDQGHIILFLHQF\RIWUDQVSRUWDWLRQRSHUDWLRQVPLJKWEHLQFUHDVHG$WWKHVDPH WLPHWKHGHFUHDVHLQHQHUJ\FRQVXPSWLRQZRXOGOHDGWRHFRQRPLFEHQHILWV+RZHYHUWKHFRPPRQDVVXPSWLRQRIWKHVH VWXGLHVLVUHGXFLQJWKHHQHUJ\FRQVXPSWLRQIRUPRUHHIILFLHQWORJLVWLFVRSHUDWLRQV 7KHPDMRULW\RIWKHVHVWXGLHVIRFXVRQXQLWHQHUJ\FRQVXPSWLRQHPLVVLRQVDQGRWKHUH[WHUQDOFRVWVRIWUDQVSRUWDWLRQ $FFRUGLQJWR0UDLKL$EGDOODKYH$ELG>@WKHXQSODQQHGXUEDQL]DWLRQDQGUDSLGLQFUHDVHLQSRSXODWLRQKDYHFDXVHG HFRQRPLFDQGHQYLURQPHQWDOSUREOHPV$VDUHVXOWHQHUJ\FRQVXPSWLRQLVLQFUHDVLQJUDSLGO\LQXUEDQDUHDV7KHUHIRUH XQLWFRQVXPSWLRQSHUYHKLFOHSRSXODWLRQXUEDQL]DWLRQDQGWUDIILFGHQVLW\DUHLQWHUUHODWHGFRQFHSWV:DQJHWDO>@GUHZ DWWHQWLRQ WR WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ HQHUJ\ FRQVXPSWLRQ DQG LQFUHDVHV LQ SURGXFWLRQ YROXPH 7KH\ DUJXHG WKDW VLJQLILFDQWDQGSRVLWLYHFRUUHODWLRQFDQEHREVHUYHGEHWZHHQHQHUJ\DQGSURGXFWLRQDFWLYLWLHV,QFUHDVHVLQSURGXFWLRQ YROXPHOHDGWRLQFUHDVHLQWUDQVSRUWDWLRQQHHGV%HFDXVHRIWKHLQFUHDVLQJWUDQVSRUWDWLRQQHHGVHQHUJ\FRQVXPSWLRQDQG FRVWPD\EHLQFUHDVHG$FFRUGLQJWR0DQ]RQHDQG%DOVDUL>@HQHUJ\FRQVXPSWLRQPD\YDU\GHSHQGLQJRQYHKLFOHW\SHV DQGVSHFLILFDWLRQV+DRHWDO>@WULHGWRHVWDEOLVKDOLQNEHWZHHQHQHUJ\FRQVXPSWLRQDQGWUDQVSRUWDWLRQPRGHVVXFKDV URDGPDULWLPHUDLOZD\$FFRUGLQJWRWKHPHDFKWUDQVSRUWDWLRQPRGHKDVGLIIHUHQWHQHUJ\FRQVXPSWLRQDQGHPLVVLRQV OHYHOV,IFKRRVLQJWUDQVSRUWDWLRQPRGHVWKDWKDYHORZHUHPLVVLRQDQGHQHUJ\FRQVXPSWLRQHQHUJ\FRVWVRIWUDQVSRUWDWLRQ PD\EHUHGXFHG$FFRUGLQJWR+X]D\\LQDQG6DOHP>@LQFUHDVHVLQHQHUJ\GHPDQGVDQGFRQVXPSWLRQDUHOLQNHGWRUDSLG XUEDQL]DWLRQ0DULTXHDQG5HLWHU>@DVVRFLDWHGYHKLFOHVW\SHVDQGHQHUJ\FRVWV8QLWHQHUJ\FRQVXPSWLRQSHUYHKLFOH W\SH DV D YDULDEOH LV WDNHQ LQWR FRQVLGHUDWLRQ LQ WKHLU VWXG\ *|Uo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n t ec sp d uc v a u t v r e ¸¸ ¹ · ¨¨ © § » » ¼ º « « ¬ ª ¸ ¸ ¹ · ¨ ¨ © §
:KLOHHXFUHSUHVHQWVPDUJLQDOHQHUJ\FRVWSHUYHKLFOHIRUHDFKWUDIILFIORZUDWHOHYHOUGLVWKHGLVWDQFHRIWKHVHOHFWHG URDGVHFWLRQYVSLVWKHJUDGXDOWUDIILFIORZUDWHWLVWKHXVLQJWLPHRIURXWHLQPLQXWHXHFLVWKHWRWDOHQHUJ\FRVWLQWKH VHOHFWHGURXWHDWLVWKHDQQXDOURXWHXVLQJWLPHLQDPLQXWHYQLVWKHQXPEHURIDFHUWDLQW\SHRIYHKLFOHPRYLQJLQWKH VHOHFWHGURXWH6HFRQGO\7KHYDOXHRIXQLWHQHUJ\FRVWSHUPLQXWHFDQEHFDOFXODWHGDVEHORZ t ec pm a u e
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±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ÕN .DYDFLN6LOH7XUQRII 6LOH7XURII&DPOLFD ' $ 6LOLYUL6HOLPSDúD % 6HOLPSDúD.XPEXUJD] & .XPEXUJD]7HSHVW ' 7HSHVW%dHNPHFH ( %dHNPHFHdDWDOFD7XUQRII
)LJ5RDGVHFWLRQVLQ,VWDQEXO&LW\
$FFRUGLQJ WR WKH RIILFLDO VWDWLVWLFV WKH PRQHWDU\ YDOXH RI WKH IXHO FRQVXPSWLRQ LV FDOFXODWHG DV ¼ DQQXDOO\2QO\KHDY\IUHLJKWYHKLFOHVDUHWDNHQLQWRFRQVLGHUDWLRQLQWKLVHYDOXDWLRQ:KHQWKLVYDOXHLVFRQYHUWHGWR WKHXQLWFRVWRIHQHUJ\SHUPLQXWHVXQLWHQHUJ\FRVWFDQEHFDOFXODWHGDVDSSUR[LPDWHO\¼(T )LJ0DUJLQDO(QHUJ\&RVW&XUYHLQ6HFWLRQ$ :KHQ(TLVDSSOLHGWRUHDFKWKHXQLWFRVWSHUYHKLFOHDQ\VHFWLRQRIWKHURDGPD\EHVHOHFWHGIRUDQDO\VLVDVDQ H[DPSOH7KHURDGVHFWLRQEHWZHHQ6LOLYULDQG6HOLPSDúDGHILQHGDVVHFWLRQ$LVVHOHFWHGIRUWKLVDQDO\VLV$FFRUGLQJ WRWKHRIILFLDOVWDWLVWLFVGDLO\KHDY\IUHLJKWYHKLFOHVSDVVWKURXJKWKLVVHFWLRQ7KHGLVWDQFHRIWKLVURDGLV NLORPHWHUV ,Q 7XUNH\ KLJK VSHHGV IRU KHDY\ IUHLJKW YHKLFOHV LV EDQQHG E\ WUDIILF UHJXODWLRQV 7KH OHJDO VSHHG OLPLWDWLRQLVNLORPHWHUVSHUKRXUIRUKHDY\IUHLJKWYHKLFOHV$FFRUGLQJWR(TWKHXQLWHQHUJ\FRVWSHUYHKLFOH RQWKLVURDGVHFWLRQDQGDWPD[LPXPVSHHGFDQEHFDOFXODWHGDV¼SHUYHKLFOH:KHQWKHWUDIILFIORZLVUHGXFHG WHQNLORPHWHUVIRUHDFKFDOFXODWLRQWKHPDUJLQDOHQHUJ\FRVWFKDUWLVFRPSRVHGDVIROORZV:KLOHRWKHUSDUDPHWHUV DUHIL[HGLWFDQEHGHILQHGDVDYDULDEOH:KHQWKHWUDIILFIORZUDWHLVUHGXFHGWKHPDUJLQDOHQHUJ\FRVWFXUYHKDVDQ XSZDUGWUHQG:KHQWUDIILFIORZLVUHGXFHGWRDFHUWDLQSRLQWWKHPDUJLQDOHQHUJ\FRVWFXUYHVKRZVDPRUHUDSLG XSZDUGWUHQG:KHQWKHWUDIILFIORZLVUHGXFHGWRNPKPDUJLQDOHQHUJ\FRVWFDQVKRZDPRUHUDSLGXSZDUGWUHQG DFFRUGLQJWRWKHFKDUWDERYH)LJ Ϭ͕ϬϬϬϬ Ϭ͕ϮϬϬϬ Ϭ͕ϰϬϬϬ Ϭ͕ϲϬϬϬ Ϭ͕ϴϬϬϬ ϭ͕ϬϬϬϬ ϭ͕ϮϬϬϬ ϭ͕ϰϬϬϬ ϭ͕ϲϬϬϬ ϭ͕ϴϬϬϬ Ϯ͕ϬϬϬϬ Ϭ ϮϬ ϰϬ ϲϬ ϴϬ ϭϬϬ hŶŝƚŵĂƌŐŝŶĂůĞŶĞƌŐLJ ĐŽƐƚ dƌĂĨĨŝĐĨůŽǁƌĂƚĞ
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Ϭ͕ϬϬϬϬ Ϭ͕ϱϬϬϬ ϭ͕ϬϬϬϬ ϭ͕ϱϬϬϬ Ϯ͕ϬϬϬϬ Ϭ ϮϬ ϰϬ ϲϬ ϴϬ ϭϬϬ hŶŝƚDĂƌŐŝŶĂůŶĞƌŐLJ ŽƐƚ dƌĂĨĨŝĐ&ůŽǁZĂƚĞ Ϭ͕ϬϬϬϬ Ϭ͕ϬϱϬϬ Ϭ͕ϭϬϬϬ Ϭ͕ϭϱϬϬ Ϭ ϮϬ ϰϬ ϲϬ ϴϬ ϭϬϬ hŶŝƚDĂƌŐŝŶĂůŶĞƌŐLJ ŽƐƚ dƌĂĨĨŝĐ&ůŽǁZĂƚĞ ϭ Ϯ ϯ ϰ ϱ ϲ ϳ ϴ
5HIHUHQFHV
>@ 0UDLKL 5 $EGDOODK . $ELG 0 5RDG 7UDQVSRUW5HODWHG (QHUJ\ &RQVXPSWLRQ $QDO\VLV RI 'ULYLQJ )DFWRUV LQ 7XQLVLD (QHUJ\ 3ROLF\ ±
>@ :DQJ<)/L.3;X;0=KDQJ<57UDQVSRUW(QHUJ\&RQVXPSWLRQDQG6DYLQJLQ&KLQD5HQHZDEOHDQG6XVWDLQDEOH(QHUJ\5HYLHZV ±
>@ 0DQ]RQH 0 %DOVDUL 3 7KH (QHUJ\ &RQVXPSWLRQ DQG (FRQRPLF &RVWV RI 'LIIHUHQW 9HKLFOHV 8VHG LQ 7UDQVSRUWLQJ :RRGFKLSV )XHO ±
>@ +DR+*HQJ</L:*XR%(QHUJ\&RQVXPSWLRQ$QG*+*(PLVVLRQVIURP&KLQDV)UHLJKW7UDQVSRUW6HFWRU6FHQDULRV7KURXJK (QHUJ\3ROLF\±
>@ +X]D\\LQ $6 6DOHP + $QDO\VLV RI 7KLUW\ <HDUV (YROXWLRQ RI 8UEDQ *URZWK 7UDQVSRUW 'HPDQG DQG 6XSSO\ (QHUJ\ &RQVXPSWLRQ *UHHQKRXVHDQG3ROOXWDQWV(PLVVLRQVLQ*UHDWHU&DLUR5HVHDUFKLQ7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ(FRQRPLFV±
>@ 0DULTXH $) 5HLWHU 6 $ 0HWKRG IRU (YDOXDWLQJ 7UDQVSRUW (QHUJ\ &RQVXPSWLRQ LQ 6XEXUEDQ $UHDV (QYLURQPHQWDO ,PSDFW $VVHVVPHQW 5HYLHZ± >@ *RUFXQ2)(IILFLHQF\$QDO\VLVRI&DUJR7UDPIRU&LW\/RJLVWLFV&RPSDUHGWR5RDG)UHLJKW7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ$&DVH6WXG\RI,VWDQEXO&LW\ %XVLQHVV/RJLVWLFVLQ0RGHUQ0DQDJHPHQWWK,QWHUQDWLRQDO6FLHQWLILF&RQIHUHQFH&URDWLD2VLMHN >@ +RVVHLQORX0+.KH\UDEDGL6$=ROIDJKDUL$'HWHUPLQLQJ2SWLPDO6SHHG/LPLWVLQ7UDIILF1HWZRUNV,QWHUQDWLRQDO$VVRFLDWLRQRI7UDIILF DQG6DIHW\6FLHQFHV,$7665HVHDUFK± >@ <DQOL0<DQMLDQJ/<XHH*)RUHFDVWRQ(QHUJ\'HPDQGRI5RDG7UDQVSRUWDWLRQLQ&KLQD,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RQIHUHQFHRQ)XWXUH(QHUJ\ (QYLURQPHQWDQG0DWHULDOV(QHUJ\3URFHGLD$ >@ 0DOORQ:%XLW/:LQJHUGHQ-9/HPPHQV+(OGUXS1+&RVWVRI&27UDQVSRUWDWLRQ,QIUDVWUXFWXUHV(QHUJ\3URFHGLD± >@ %DULVD$']HQH,5RVD0'REUDMD.:DVWHWRELRPHWKDQH&RQFHSW$SSOLFDWLRQ$&DVH6WXG\RI9DOPLHUD&LW\LQ/DWYLD(QYLURQPHQWDO DQG&OLPDWH7HFKQRORJLHV± >@ *RUFXQ2)$QDO\VLVRIWKH(IIHFWVRI,QWHUPRGDO7HUPLQDOVIRUWKH6ROXWLRQVRI8UEDQ/RJLVWLFV3UREOHPVLQ,VWDQEXO&LW\'\QDPLFVLQ /RJLVWLFV6SULQJHU,QWHUQDWLRQDO3XEOLVKLQJ6ZLW]HUODQG