Proceeding of the Third Eurasian Conference "Nuclear Science and its Application”, October 5 - 8 , 2004.
EQUIPMENT FOR THE FORECAST AND OPERATING CONTROL OF
THE NATURAL CATASTROPHES DYNAMICS
Kazantsev S.I., ^ ob lik Yu.N., 2Kuzhevskij B.M., 2Nechaev O.Yu., ^uldashev B.S.
in stitu te o f Nuclear Physics, Uzbekistan 2Institute o f Nuclear Physics,Lomonosov Moscow State Russia
The long-term researches on the temporal and space variations of neutron emission near the Earth crust (into the Earth’s neutron field) have demonstrated the sources of the Earth’s neutron field and revealed the nature of its variations (Kuzhevskij 2001). The geodynamic processes that occur in the Earth crust have to be among the most important factors resulting in the neutron emission variations near the Earth crust. The analysis of the found relationships made it possible to formulate a fresh approach to forecasting natural calamities (earthquakes, in particular) based on recording the temporal variations of the Earth’s neutron field (Beliaeva 1999, Kuzhevskij 2003).
The task-oriented equipment was designed (see Fig. 1) for studying the temporal variations of the Earth’s neutron field. The equipment is used in Moscow and Kamchatka to make continuous and simultaneous observations. Fig.2 shows the time dependence of neutron emission in 2003.
The explicit great differences in the frequency and amplitude of the near-crust neutron flux are defined by the very different tectonics of the two sites. The Moscow region is seismically quiet, whereas Kamchatka belongs to the most active seismic regions of the globe and is literally full of active volcanoes.
Fig. 3 shows one of the numerous examples obtained in the researches and tests of the experimental techniques to demonstrate the feasibility of short-term forecasting of earthquakes by observing the temporal neutron emission variations near the Earth crust.
Proceeding of the Third Eurasian Conference "Nuclear Science and its Application”, October 5 - 8 , 2004. o 10000.00 1000.00 ÛÛ _£ n §o CJ 3 c *0 o s -100.00 1000000.00 100000.00 10000.00 1000.00 100.00
The Moscow and Kamchatka plants' counting rates from March till December 2003
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March April May June July August September OctoberNovemberDecember
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Fig-2. The time dependence of neutron emission in 2003 according to Moscow and
Kamchatka experimental plants. l/j
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Fig.3. An example of neutron splash before a strong earthquake.
The search for the sources of the Earth’s neutron field variations demonstrated (see Fig. 4) that the strong variations of the neutron flux amplitude occur when the Earth traverses the IMF sector boundaries (Kuzhevskij 2002). The resultant strong near-Earth neutron flux bursts are featured with their simultaneous occurrences at different points of the globe. The mechanism of
Proceeding of the Third Eurasian Conference "Nuclear Science and its Application”, October 5 - 8 , 2004. November 1999 | 100
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Fig.4.
An example of neutron variations according to the days of IMF polarity changes.On the other hand, a surprisingly strong correlation was found between the Earth passages across the IMF sector boundaries and the large-magnitude earthquakes (see Fig. 5).
N u m b e r o f th e e a rt h q u a k e s w it h m a g n it u d e M > 6 .3
Proceeding o f the Third Eurasian Conference “Nuclear Science and its Application”, October 5 - 8 , 2004,
-10.00 -5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00
The days before (-) and after (+) the day of IMF sign change
Fig.5. A distribution of the number of strong earthquakes according the days of IMF polarity
changes.
In view of the above, the earthquake forecast quality will be even more improved by supporting the observations of the Earth’s neutron field to the observations of the Earth’s magnetic field. With that purpose, a reliable high-sensitive sensor of the constant and low- frequency magnetic field components with acoustic pumping was designed (Kazantsev S.I.).
The following characteristics of the sensor were attained: 1 100 nTl sensitivity,
2 0-30 Hz frequency band, 3 no cooling,
4 non-hygroscopic,
5 some 1-2 W of consumed power.
Proceeding o f the Third Eurasian Conference “Nuclear Science and its Application”, October 5 - 8 , 2004.
Fig.6. Diurnal variations of magnetic field of the Earth, measured of sensor in period from
28.06.03 till 04.07.03.
REFERANCES
1. Beliaeva E.A., Kuzhevskij B.M., Nechaev O.Yu. “Physical basis of a forecasting metod for earthquakes and volcanos’ activity according observations of variations of neutron flux near the Earth’s crust” IUGG 99 Birmingham, abstract, week B, SW1/E/08-B5, B226.
2. Kuzhevskij B.M., Nechaev O.Yu., Panasyuk M.I. et al. “Neutron fields of the Earth. Origin and Dynamics” J.Korean Asso. Rad. Prot. 2001, Vol. 26, N 3, pp. 315-319.
3. Kuzhevskij B.M., Nechaev O.Yu., Sigaeva E.A., Zakharov V.A. “Neutron flux variations near the Earth crust. A possible tectonic activity detection” NHESS 2003,Vol.3, pp. 1-9. 4. Kuzhevskij B.M., Nechaev O.Yu., Panasyuk M.I., Sigaeva E.A. “Studies of Neutrons
Distributions near the Earth Surface in Order to Predict Space Weather” WDS’02, Proc. Of contributed paper, part II, Physics of Plasma and Ionized Media. Charles University, Prague, 2002, pp. 258-263.
5. Kazantsev S.I., Koblik Yu.N., Pikul V.P., Yuldashev B.S. “Sensor for High-Precision Measurements of a Magnetic Field of Earth”. The Fifth Inter. Conf. “Modem Problems of Nuclear Physics”, Samarkand, 12-15 August 2003, p.96-97.
