6. NEW TICKET INTEGRATION PROPOSAL FOR DOLMUS
6.4. Monetary Gains/Losses of Dolmus Users and Dolmus Operators
6.4.2. Monetary Gains/Losses of Dolmus Operators
As a final step before policy proposal on ticket and route integration an expenditure analysis from operators’ side is needed too. The amounts of users’ time savings and value of time saving for each user’s give a clue about the user profit. A public transport integration proposal is only possible –as stated before- with the consensus of each stakeholder respectively local decision maker, operator and user. Then, what about the gains/losses of dolmuş operators? As it is a privately operated public transport service, it definitely has a profit from the operations. For that calculation first of all, expenditure of dolmuş should be calculated. For that calculation, on 7th of May, 2016 an in-depth interview was realized with a dolmuş license plate owner/dolmuş operator. Depending on this interview an average cost calculation has been made. In the explanations below, these calculations are explained systematically.
Expenditure calculation of dolmuş operators is depending on both the expressions of the interviewee and survey results. Calculation could be made with the formula below;
Average Cost of Dolmuş Operations=Capital Cost+Operational Cost (11) In this equation two variables could be represented as;
Capital Cost = License Plate Cost + Vehicle Cost (12) Operational Cost = Maintenance Cost+Fuel Cost+Driver's Wage (13) These five variables namely license plate cost, vehicle cost, maintenance cost, fuel cost and driver’s wage will be calculated step by step in this section. According to these variables, it would be possible to calculate expenditure of dolmuş operator per
162
day. With this per day expenditure calculation, it is possible to calculate per passenger per km expenditures of each dolmuş operation.
1) License Plate cost is the major input of the study. It was explained before in detail those license plates are quite expensive. For this reason, their daily profit to the operator is the dominant variable about the expenditure. As it is a capital cost, the calculation of its daily equivalent is possible only with the annual interest yield of the money. That is why; first of all net interest rate should be calculated. Net interest rate could be shown basically with the formula below;
Net Interest Rate = Nominal Interest Rate-Inflation Rate (14) According to the data of Turkish Central Bank (2015), for the period, during which the surveys are made, Nominal Interest Rate was about 13.20% and inflation rate was about 8.20% on average. That makes the result of the equation as;
Net Interest Rate = 13.20-8.20 Net Interest Rate = 5%
Annual Return of License Plate Cost could be calculated with this net interest rate value. Both interviewee and license plate on sale on web shows that, average license plate amount is about 1,800,000 TL. With that total amount, annual return is;
Annual Return of License Plate Cost = License Plate Cost*Net Interest Rate Annual Return of License Plate Cost = 1,800,000*0.05
Annual Return of License Plate Cost = 90,000 TL/year
However this value is annual. As the calculation will be made on daily expenditures, it should be turned into daily equivalent.
163
Daily Return of License Plate Cost
=
Annual Return of License Plate Cost Number of Days in a Year (15) Daily Return of License Plate Cost = 90,000365
Daily Return of License Plate Cost = 246,57 TL/day
2) Vehicle cost is another capital cost of dolmuş operator. Vehicle prices are both checked from the interviewee’s answers and from the websites of mostly used models (Mercedes Sprinter and Iveco Daily). On average new minibus cost is 120,000 TL. Depending on UKOME decisions of İstanbul and Ankara Municipality economic life of the minibus is up to 10 years. However, interviewee stated that, the oldest vehicles on operation are at most 8 years old. That is why; this value has been taken as the basis.
Annual Cost of Purchasing a Minibus =
Vehicle CostEconomic Life of the Vehicle (16) Annual Cost of Purchasing a Minibus = 120,000
8
Annual Cost of Purchasing a Minibus = 15,000 TL/year
However, this value is annual. As the calculation will be made on daily expenditures, it should be turned into daily equivalent.
Daily Cost of Purchasing a Minibus
=
Annual Cost of Purchasing a Minibus Number of Days in a Year(17) Daily Cost of Purchasing a Minibus = 15000
365 Daily Cost of Purchasing a Minibus = 41.09 TL/day
3) Maintenance cost covers the sum of the costs of mechanical impairments, renewal costs, general maintenance costs etc. From internet sources, it could be deducted that annual mechanical control of the mostly used minibus
164
models is between 200 TL – 760 TL in different firms. These mechanical controls are made for each 15000 km travelled. According to the interviewee’s responses, dolmuş operators are making 60,000 km each year on average. That means there are four mechanical control payments for these vehicles. Mechanical control payment could be taken as the average of minimum and maximum values. In that case, the calculation of daily equivalent of maintenance cost of minibus is;
Annual Maintenance Cost of Minibus
=
(Lowest Cost+Highest Cost)2 (18)
Annual Maintenance Cost of Minibus = (200+760) 2
Annual Maintenance Cost of Minibus = 480 TL/each 15,000 km
However, this value is annual. As the calculation will be made on daily expenditures, it should be turned into daily equivalent. It should not be forgotten that there will be 4 mechanical control payments each year.
Daily Equivalent of Maintenance
=
Annual Maintenance Cost of Minibus*4Number of Days in a Year
(19) Daily Equivalent of Maintenance = 480*4
365
Daily Equivalent of Maintenance of Minibus = 5,26 TL/day
4) Fuel cost will be calculated with the mean km value of dolmuş operations.
With that mean value, it is meant that; there were four types of operations which were compared with the conventional competitors, namely “Dolmus”
(Against Bus), “Dolmus” (Against Metro), “Dolmus + Bus”, “Dolmus + Metro” and their mean km values are respectively 9.6 km (Against Bus), 12.8 km (Against Metro), 14.0 km, 12.6 km. For the mean calculation all of these
165
four will be used. The distance of single “Dolmus” could be directly used however, dolmuş transferred last two are unable to be used directly because according to survey there is no such data, which is showing the km travelled for each trip per user. Consequently, it is not possible to divide mean km travelled before and after transferred the best way possible would be to divide the value of km travelled of transferred choices (Dolmus + Bus, Dolmus + Metro) into two (as in the previous chapter). In calculation the formula is;
Mean km Travelled Per Direction = 9.6+12.8+ (14.0
2 ) +(12.6 2 ) 4
Mean km Travelled Per Direction = 8,9 km/headway
However, that is the per round result. Like other public transport operations dolmuş operations too, realized as round trips. That is why; before next step, daily km travelled is needed for an average dolmuş operation. Interviewee declared that the number of rounds reaches at most 14-15 a day. Then the total km travelled per day formula is;
Total km Travelled=No of Headways* Mean km Travelled Per Direction (20) Total km Travelled = 15* 8,9
Total km Travelled = 133.5 km/day
After the calculation of total km travelled per day, now it is possible to calculate fuel cost of dolmuş operator on average. Both Alternative Fuels Data Center (AFDC) of the US (2015) and interviewee responses show that per liter diesel fuel enables 10 km travel for each minibus in urban traffic.
That makes daily fuel consumption as;
Fuel Consumption of Minibus=Total km Travelled * Km travelled per L (21)
Fuel Consumption of Minibus=133.5 10
166
Fuel Consumption of Minibus=13.35 L/day
However this value is liter based. As the calculation will be made on with monetary equivalent of each variable, it should be turned into monetary value.
It is checked from Energy Market Regulatory Authority (2015) data, for the period in which survey is made the average diesel fuel price per liter is 3.86 TL. In that case daily fuel cost is;
Daily Fuel Cost of Minibus = Fuel Consumption* Fuel Price per L (22)
Daily Fuel Cost of Minibus = 13.5*3.86
Daily Fuel Cost of Minibus = 52.11 TL/day
5) Last input of daily costs is the wage of drivers. As there is high exploitation – represented in the literature part- in paratransit sector it is quite problematic to get information about wages. However, according to the interviewee’s answers it could be deducted indirectly that -visible- wage of drivers is 120 TL. Interviewee (license plate owner) stated that drivers are allowed to take the payment of standing passengers ticket cost directly. Interviewee’s indicated that, because of that problem in peak hours –in which passenger number is high- operators or vehicle owners themselves use the vehicle (rather than give it to a driver) to reduce the number of those uncontrolled earnings.
Daily Equivalent of Driver’s Wage = 120 TL/day
6) In the pre-final part of this calculation average cost of dolmuş operations according to mean values can be deducted. Capital cost and operational cost
167
is two main inputs of total cost. Firstly, capital cost at the end can be calculated as;
Capital Cost = License Plate Cost + Vehicle Cost Capital Cost = 246.57+41.09
Capital Cost = 287.66 TL/day And the second one operational cost can be calculated as;
Operational Cost = Maintenance Cost+Fuel Cost+Driver's Wage Operational Cost = 5.26+52.11+120
Operational Cost = 177.37 TL/day
As all of the calculations are represented in daily monetary value, the result will be in that unit too. The result of the calculation of the average cost of dolmuş operations per day is;
Average Cost of Dolmuş Operations = Capital Cost+Operational Cost Average Cost of Dolmuş Operations = 287.66+177.37
Average Cost of Dolmuş Operations per day = 465.03 TL/day
7) As represented before cost of dolmuş operations should be turned into per passenger per km expenditures for the comparison of the value with the survey value. For that comparison daily cost of dolmuş should be turned into per passenger earnings. It was stated before that, on average one dolmuş vehicle makes 15 rounds a day. According to interviewee’s answers, on average 20 passengers/pax (14 passengers sitting+6 passengers standing) are carried each headway on average.
Pax Carried per day = No of Headways*No of Pax Carried per headway (23) Pax Carried per day = 15*20
168
Pax Carried per day = 300 passenger/day
At the end, there are two important findings of this calculation. One of these findings of that part is “cost of each passenger to operator”. The second one is “cost of per passenger per km to dolmuş operator”. It should not be forgotten that; “cost of per passenger per km to dolmuş operator” and “cost of per passenger to dolmuş operator” includes all expenditures including normal profits from the capital costs. In other words, these two formulas already include capital huge capital investments for the inclusion of all money losses because of dolmuş operations and even in this cost too, their huge capital investments are taking into account. That is a valuable deduction that should be considered for the policy proposals’ negotiations between decision makers and dolmuş operators.
Cost of each passenger to operator is possible to calculate according to the number of passenger carried per day (calculated above);
Cost of Each Passenger to Operator
=
Average Cost of Dolmuş Operations per day Pax Carried per day (24)Cost of Each Passenger to Operator = 465.03 300
Cost of Each Passenger to Dolmuş Operator = 1.5501 TL per passenger
The second one of the most important findings of this calculation set is cost of per passenger per km to dolmuş operator. With that last explanation the equation is;
Cost of per passenger per km
=
Cost of Per Passenger to OperatorTotal km Travelled
(25)
Cost of per passenger per km = 1.5501 8.9
Cost of per passenger per km = 0.174 TL per passenger per km
169
These calculations show that even if no profit is added there is 1.5501 TL per passenger expenditure of dolmuş in total km travelled (which is the mean km of the zones served by dolmuş) and 0.174 TL per passenger per km expenditure of dolmuş per km travelled is constant. The meaning of this is the fact that, without compensating these costs it is impossible for dolmuş operator to continue its operations. As total km value is calculated by mean km travelled, for shorter and longer distances, the value would be changed. However, per km calculation represents true per km cost of dolmuş operator. That is one important deduction of these calculations. The second important finding is that; these values give per passenger per km expenditure of dolmuş operators. Per passenger per km welfare losses were calculated before. With that final calculation from the operator’s side, it is possible to compare these two values. Additionally, this provides an opportunity to check whether it is possible to integrate dolmuş with existing smart card ticketing system with a lower price than 2.25 TL standard ticket price. Additionally, post-integration ticket price of dolmuş operations could be found if there is any excess profit and it could be compared with the existing welfare losses of dolmuş users. If excess profit is found, then to minimize the welfare loss of users or maybe even to compensate user’s welfare loss could be possible. Final part of this chapter will show whether is it possible to provide a feeder dolmuş service to main conventional lines with a price lower than 2.25 TL standard ticket price or not.
6.5. Ticket Integration for Paratransit-Public Transport Operations