ERKAN, Turan Erman TÜRKİYE/ТУРЦИЯ ÖZET
BİT (Bilgi ve İletişim Teknolojileri) dünyayı endüstri devrimi zamanındaki buhar gücü kadar etkilemektedir. BİT kullanımı ve yatırımları bölgesel ve glabal entegrasyon için önemli bir etmendir. BİT endikatörleri yeni ekonomi penetrasyon düzeyini ve globalleşme düzeyini görmek açısından önemlidir.
Yeni ekonomi, mal piyaları yanında işgücü piyasaları için de fırsatlar sunmaktadır. BİT kullanımı belirli bir eşiği geçtikten sonra verimlilik ve ücret artışını beraberinde getirir.
Bu çalışma, BİT’in Asya ve Afrika üzerindeki etkilerini özetlemeye çalışacaktır. Öncelikle internet kullanım oranları ülke düzeyinde incelenecektir.
Yeni ekonomi açısından internet yaygınlığı en önemli göstergelerden bir tanesidir. Veri bulunabildiği taktirde mobil ve sabit hatlar da analize dahil edilecektir.
Çalışma, BİT kullanımı ve yatırımının Avrupa ve ABD’deki düzeyini inceleyerek son bulacaktır. Avrupa ve ABD’in geçmiş başarıları, Asya ve Afrika için yeni ekonomi yol haritalarında önemli bir belirleyici olacaktır.
Anahtar Kelimeler: Yeni ekonomi, Bilgi İletişim Teknolojileri, internet ekonomisi, çoklu faktör verimliliği
ABSTRACT
ICT (Information Communication Technology) effects the world like a revolution such as steam power in the 18th century. Both the usage and investment in ICT is essential for a regional and global integration. ICT indicators are strong tools of analysing both new economy penetration and global integration of the economy. New economy has challanges in good and services and labour market. After the ICT usage reaches the critical threshold, both productivity and wage rate increases.
This study analyses the effect of ICT (Information communication Technology) on Asia and Africa. The analyses firstly begins with internet usage rates of both Asia and Africa in country detail. The most important indicator in new economy is the internet penetration rate. Except internet usage also, mobile and fixed line phone usage statistics also would take place in terms of communication. Due to availability of data, information technology (hardware and software) investments would be compared.
United States and Europe. The past experience of United States and Europe would be the rational path for Asia and Africa to follow. In other words, the road map of Asia and Africa in transforming to new economy would be determined.
Key Words: New economy, Information Communication Technology, internet economy, multi factor productivity.
INTRODUCTION
It is observed that from 1995 through 1999, real gross domestic product of US economy rose at an annual rate of more than 4 percent (Oliner & Sichel, 2000). On the other hand, unemployment has dropped to historically low rates(3% ); the federal government is awash with revenues (Bosworth & Triplett, 2000). Again in accordance with Oliner & Sichel this rapid advance has been driven by growth of labor productivity that depends on hitech usage. They argue that an obvious candidate for this is the high-tech revolution spreading through the U.S. business sector (2000). Moreover, a definition (in line with Oliner &
Sichel) of the new economy is cleared out by William D. Nordhaus (2000) as;
The new economy involves acquisition, processing and transformation, and distribution of the information. The three major components are hardware (primarily computers) that process information, the communications systems that acquire and distribute the information, and the software which, with human help, manages the entire system
Increase in the importance of knowledge in the economy, the advent of information industries, as well as other structural changes in the economy have transformed the preconditions for regional development. In many countries today, economic development shows tendencies towards regional concentration.
Economically central modern regions often face a migration gain as well as growth of employment and income, whereas the opposite is the case in many peripheral areas. However this picture is by no means uniform, as it is enriched with mosaic like elements and exceptions, ICT is a common utilization for each of those (Jorgenson 2001).
In recent years, the US economy has grown at a surprisingly fast pace, in a phase of expansion that started nine years ago and constitutes the longest-ever recorded period of sustained growth. Moreover, expansion has been marked by low unemployment and record employment but also by low inflation, and an acceleration of productivity growth in the most recent years. This long period of expansion coincides with significant investment in and the diffusion of information and communication technologies (ICT) and their applications.
The term “new economy” has been coined to mark the association of inflation-free growth with computerisation and globalisation, with the
sustained growth (OECD 2000). The notion of the “new economy” has also been employed to signal that the workings of the economy may have significantly changed, with rules, principles and institutions different from those of the “old economy”. A frequently cited example of such new factors is the rising importance of network externalities. Whether a “new economy” in this sense has actually emerged is unclear but the performance of the US economy is uncontested and has been contrasted with growth and employment in many European countries and in Japan (Stiroh 2002).
Table 1: The contribution of the computer industry to US multi-factor productivity growth: Examples from two recent studies
Source: Oliner and Sichel 2001
Table 2: World internet usage and population statistics
World Regions Population ( 2007 Est.)
Population
% of World
Internet Usage, Latest Data
% Population (Penetrati)
Usage % of World
Usage Growth 2000-2007
Africa 933,448,292 14.2 % 33,334,800 3.6 % 3.0 % 638.4 % Asia 3,712,527,624 56.5 % 398,709,065 10.7 % 35.8 % 248.8 % Europe 809,624,686 12.3 % 314,792,225 38.9 % 28.3% 199.5 % Middle East 193,452,727 2.9 % 19,424,700 10.0 % 1.7 % 491.4 % North America 334,538,018 5.1 % 233,188,086 69.7 % 20.9% 115.7 % Latin
America/Caribbea
n 556,606,627 8.5 % 96,386,009 17.3 % 8.7 % 433.4 % Oceania /Australia 34,468,443 0.5 % 18,439,541 53.5 % 1.7 % 142.0 % WORLD TOTAL 6,574,666,417 100.0 % 1,114,274,426 16.9 % 100.0 % 208.7 %
Source: www.internetworldstats.com.
NOTES: (1) Internet Usage and World Population Statistics were updated on Mar. 10, 2007. (2) Internet usage information comes from data published by Nielsen//NetRatings, by the International Telecommunications Union, by local NICs, and other other reliable sources.
According to both Oliner & Sichel and Council of Economic Advisors, Multi Factor Productivity (MFP) has the greatest impact on growth among others. MFP is the result of meeting of high qualified labour with the high tech (REF). The discussion about the new economy in US has been lasting since year 2000. However, the discussion is just about the existence of new economy not the growth statistics and calculations.
The growth by or with ICT experience of US is a reference for europe and other regions of the world. The study continues with the internet statistics of the world as an indicator of new economy.
Internet Statistics
Internet penetration rate is one of the most used ICT indicators. It roughly shows the level of ICT usage. It may be low both because of infrastructure and communication strategy.
If someone use the data in Table 2 and convert it to a graph, then Figure 1 is formed.
Figure 1:
It is easily seen from the figure 1 that, there is a huge gap beetween Africa- Asia group and then others. If one realizes a correlation analysis between Population% of World and % Population ( Penetration ) the result is “-0.36”, which is a low correlation.
located south of Europe and bordered to the west by the Atlantic Ocean and to the east by the Indian Ocean.
In Table 3 and Table 4, the values is not sufficient but the use growth statistics is optimistic for the future. Algeria, Egyp, Morocco, Nigeria, South Africa and Sudan is better than others.
Table 3: Internet Users and Population Statistics for Africa
AFRICA
NOTES: (1) Internet Usage and World Population Statistics were updated on Mar.
10, 2007. (2) Internet usage information comes from data published by Nielsen//NetRatings, by the International Telecommunications Union, by local NICs, and other other reliable sources.
Table 4 : Internet Usage Statistics for Africa
AFRICA Population