Finansal Kriz Teorileri ve Türkiye Ekonomisinde 1990 Sonrası Finansal Krizler

Tam metin

(1)Marmara Üniversitesi øø%)'HUJLVL YIL 2010&ø/7;;,;, SAYI II, S. 1-22. )ø1$16$/.5ø=7(25ø/(5ø9(7h5.ø<( (.2120ø6ø1'(6215$6,)ø1$16$/.5ø=/(5 Suat OKTAR* Levent DALYANCI** Özet Finansal krizler genelde dünya HNRQRPLVLQGH |]HOGH LVH JHOLúPHNWH RODQ ONHOHUGH VRQUDVÕQGD HQ |QHPOL LNWLVDGL VRUXQODUÕQ EDúÕQGD JHOPHNWHGLU 7UNL\HHNRQRPLVLGHLNWLVDGLNDONÕQPDVUHFLQGHILQDQVPDQDoÕ÷Õ\DSÕVDOVRUXQODU YH VD÷OÕNVÕ] Lo-GÕú ILQDQVPDQ NRúXOODUÕ DOWÕQGD VUHNOL ILQDQVDO NUL]OHUH DoÕN KDOGHGLU %X ED÷ODPGD oDOÕúPDQÕQ WHPHO DPDFÕ ILQDQVDO NUL] WHRULOHULQL GQ\D HNRQRPLVL YH 7UNL\H HNRQRPLVLQGH VRQUDVÕ RUWD\D oÕNDQ ILQDQVDO NUL]OHULQ WHPHO VHEHS YH VRQXoODUÕ ED÷ODPÕQGD LQFHOHPHN 7UNL\H HNRQRPLVLQGH ILnansal NUL]OHUL 3URELW PRGHO \DUGÕPÕ\OD PRGHOOHPHN ILQDQVDO NUL]OHULQ |QJ|UOPHVL YH |QOHQPHVLQH\|QHOLNSROLWLND|QHULOHULJHOLúWLUPHNWLU Anahtar Kelimeler: )LQDQVDO .UL] 7HRULOHUL )LQDQVDO øVWLNUDUVÕ]OÕN %HOLUVL]OLN)LQDQVDO.ÕUÕOJDQOÕN. FINANCIAL CRISES THEORIES AND FINANCIAL CRISES IN TURKISH ECONOMY AFTER 1990 Abstract Financial crises in the world economy, especially in the developing countries have been one of the most important economic problems since 1990s. Turkish economy in her economic development processes has been the similar economic structure and problems like other developing countries. In this context, main aim of this study is to investigate the theories of the financial crises by considering the reasons and consequences of the financial crises in the world economy and Turkish economy since 1990s, to model Turkish financial crises after. 3URI'U0DUPDUDhQLYHUVLWHVLøø%)øNWLVDW%|OPLLEIGHN#PDUPDUDHGXWU ** Dr. Marmara hQLYHUVLWHVLøø%)øNWLVDW%|OPOHYHQWGDO\DQFL#JPDLOFRP. 1.

(2) Prof. Dr. Suat OKTAR*Dr. Levent DALYANCI. 1990s by using a Probit model and to develop economic policy recommendations to forecast and to prevent financial crises in Turkish economy. Key Words: Financial Crisis Theories, Financial Instability, Uncertainty, Financial Fragility. 7HRULGH.UL].DYUDPÕ Compact Oxford English Dictionary’ 1a göre, Yunanca’da “krisis” µGHFLVLRQ NDUDU¶NULQHLQ¶GDQµGHFLGH NDUDUYHUPH¶DQODPODUÕQDJHOHQNUL]³|QHPOL bir ]RUOXN YH WHKOLNH G|QHPL´ RODUDN WDQÕPODQPDNWDGÕU7UN 'LO .XUXPX 7'.

(3) 2, NUL]LQ JHQHO DQODPODUÕQGDQ ELULVLQL ³EXKUDQ´ ³%LU ONHGH YH\D ONHOHU DUDVÕQGD WRSOXPXQ YH\D ELU NXUXOXúXQ \DúDPÕQGD J|UOHQ Jo G|QHP EXQDOÕP EXKUDQ´ RODUDN DoÕNODPDNWDGÕU $NWDQ¶ÕQ

(4) 3 NUL]OH LOJLOL J|Uú ³.UL] |QFHGHQ ELOLQPH\HQ \D GD |QJ|UOHPH\HQ ED]Õ JHOLúPHOHULQ PDNUR G]H\GH GHYOHW PLNUR G]H\GHLVHILUPDODUÕFLGGLRODUDNHWNLOH\HFHNVRQXoODURUWD\DoÕNDUPDVÕGÕU6DGHFH DQL YH EHNOHQPHGLN ELU DQGD RUWD\D oÕNDQ ROXPVX] JHOLúPHOHUL NUL] RODUDN DGODQGÕUPDN GR÷UXGXU <RNVD QRUPDO VUHo LoHULVLQGH RUWD\D oÕNDQ KHU VRUXQ NUL] GHPHNGH÷LOGLU.UL]EXDoÕGDQEHNOHQPHGLNELoLPGHRUWD\DoÕNDQ³FLGGLELUVRUXQ´ RODUDNGúQOPHOLGLU´úHNOLQGHGLU8\JXU

(5) 4’un ifade etWL÷LJLEL finansal kriz NRQXVXQGD úX J|Uú JHQHO NDEXO J|UU NUL]LQ RUWDPÕ YH J|VWHUJHOHUL YDUGÕU DPD NUL]LQNHVLQRODUDNRODFD÷ÕQÕV|\OHPHNYHKHOHNUL]LQ]DPDQÕQÕ|QJ|UPHNPPNQ GH÷LOGLU 'RUQEXVFK¶XQ GH\LPL\OH ³.UL] DQFDN SDWODGÕ÷ÕQGD J|UOU´ =DWHQ krizin NHVLQ ROGX÷X YH QH ]DPDQ RODFD÷Õ |QJ|UOHELOVH JHUHNOL |QOHPOHU DOÕQÕU NUL] önlenir, NÕVDFDVÕ NUL] ROPD] $\UÕFD ELOLQLU NL ILQDQVDO NUL]GHNL EDVNÕ YH JHUJLQOLN JYHQVL]OLN YH SDQLNWHQ ND\QDNODQÕU *HQHO NUL] WDQÕPÕQGDQ KDUHNHWOH LNWLVDGL sistHP YH DOW ELOHúHQOHULQGH RUWD\D oÕNDQ NUL]L “øNWLVDGL VLVWHP \D GD DOW ELOHúHQOHULQLQLQ LúOH\LúLQGH EHNOHQPHGLN ELU úHNLOGH RUWD\D oÕNDQ YH VLVWHPLQ LúOH\LúLQL |QHPOL |OoGH ROXPVX] HWNLOH\HQ GXUXP” úHNOLQGH WDQÕPOD\DELOLUL] øNWLVDGLNUL]LQND\QD÷ÕoRNoHúLWOLQHGHQOHUHED÷OÕRODELOHFH÷LJLELLNWLVDGLVLVWHPLQ KHUKDQJLELUDOWELOHúHQLQGHQEDúOD\ÕSJHQHOVLVWHPH\D\ÕODELOLU\DGDVÕQÕUOÕNDODELOLU 'L÷HU \DQGDQ NUL] VLVWHPGHNL DNVDNOÕNODUÕQ IDUN HGLOPHVL YH VLVWHPLQ GDKD JoO KDOH JHWLULOPHVL JHUHNWL÷LQL J|VWHUPHVL DoÕVÕQGDQ GD ELU \HQLOHQPH IÕUVDWÕ RODUDN GD görülebilir.. Finansal Kriz Türleri ve Teorileri )LQDQVDOVHNW|UQLNWLVDGLVLVWHPGHWHPHOLúOHYLUHHOVHNW|UIDDOL\HWOHULLoLQ JHUHNOL RODQ ILQDQVPDQÕ VD÷ODPDNWÕU %X QHGHQOH ILQDQVDO VHNW|U WP NXUXPODUÕ 1. Compact Oxford English Dictionary, "crisis", http://www.askoxford.com / concise_oed/ crisis?view(ULúLP7DULKL(\OO-2009. 2 Türk Dil Kurumu, "Kriz" http://tdkterim.gov.tr/bts/?kategori=verilst&kelime =kriz&ayn=tam (ULúLP7DULKL.DVÕP-2009. 3 C.Can Aktan, "Ekonomik Kriz" , Yeni Türkiye Dergisi, www.canaktan.org/yonetim/ krizyonetim/genel-olarak.htm (ULúLP7DULKL 4 (UFDQ8\JXU³.UL]GHQ.UL]H7UNL\H.DVÕPYHùXEDW.UL]OHUL´Türkiye (NRQRPL.XUXPX7DUWÕúPD0HWQL 2001/1,2001, http://www.tek.org.tr(ULúLP7DULKL 01.11.2009.. 2.

(6) NXUDOODUÕYHDUDoODUÕ\ODUHHOVHNW|UELULPOHULLoLQILQDQVPDQVD÷ODPDLúOHYLQHVDKLSWLU $QFDN ILQDQVDO VHNW|UGHNL R\XQFXODUÕQ GD WHPHO DPDFÕ NHQGL ND]DQoODUÕQÕ PDNVLPXP HWPHN ROPDVÕ nedeniyle \NVHN UHNDEHW RUWDPÕQGD IDDOL\HW J|VWHULUOHU Bu nedenle, finansal sektör, reel sektörü finanse etmek için küresel ekonomi JHQHOLQGH \R÷XQ ELU UHNDEHW RUWDPÕQGD IDDOL\HW J|VWHULU 1H YDU NL ILQDQVDO VHNW|UGHNL LNWLVDGL ELULPOHU ILQDQVDO \DWÕUÕP NDUDU VUHoOHULQGH NUHVHO makroekonomik dengelerin dinaPLNOHULQLYHJHOHFH÷LQLKHU]DPDQLGHDOELUúHNLOGH WDKPLQ HGHPH] 'L÷HU \DQGDQ LNWLVDGL ELULPOHU DUDVÕQGD DúÕUÕ ND]DQo KÕUVÕ\OD \NVHN ULVNOHULQ VWOHQLOPHVL DKODNL VDSPDODUÕQ PDQLSODV\RQODUÕQ YH DúÕUÕ VSHNODV\RQODUÕQ ROXúPDVÕ YE IDNW|UOHULQ RUWD\D oÕNPDVÕ ILQDQVDO VHNW|UQ LúOH\Lú PHNDQL]PDODUÕQÕ ROXPVX] HWNLOH\HUHN ILQDQVDO VLVWHPGH NUL]OHUH \RO DoDELOLU %X ED÷ODPGD ILQDQVDO VHNW|UGH NUL] ILQDQVDO VHNW|U IDDOL\HWOHULQLQLQ LúOH\LúLQL EHNOHQPHGLN YH |QHPOL |OoGH ROXPVX] HWNLOH\HFHN GXUXPODUÕQ RUWD\D oÕNPDVÕ RODUDN WDQÕPODQDELOLU )LQDQVDO NUL]OHULQ ND\QD÷Õ ILQDQVDO VHNW|UGHNL R\XQFXODU NXUXPODU NXUDOODU YH DUDoODU RODELOHFH÷L JLEL UHHO VHNW|U IDDOL\HWOHULQGH NkUODUGDNL GDUDOPDODU GD ILQDQVDO VHNW|U NUL]OHULQLQ ND\QD÷Õ RODELOPHNWHGLU )LQDQVDl kriz ile LOJLOL OLWHUDWUGH \DSÕODQ WDQÕPODU WHPHOGH ILQDQVDO VLVWHPLQ WHPHO LúOHYL RODQ UHHO VHNW|UHIRQVD÷ODPDLúOHYLQL\LWLUPHVL]HULQHRGDNODQPDNWDGÕU/LWHUDWUGHNLWHPHO WDQÕPODUDúD÷ÕGDNLJLEL|]HWOHQHELOLU 5. Micheal Bordo (1987) , finansal NUL]L EHNOHQWLOHUGH ELU GH÷LúLP ED]Õ ILQDQVDO NXUXPODUÕQ LIODVÕQGDQ GX\XODQ NRUNX JD\ULPHQNXO \D GD OLNLW ROPD\DQ YDUOÕNODUÕQ SDUD\D oHYULOPH WHúHEEV YV RODUDN WDQÕPODPÕúWÕU 6XQGDUDUDMDQ YH 6 Balino (1991) NUL]LoRNVD\ÕGDILQDQVDONXUXPXQERUoODUÕQÕQYDUOÕNODUÕQÕQSL\DVD GH÷HUOHULQL DúÕUÕ GHUHFHGH DúWÕ÷Õ LIODVODU YH SRUWI|\ ND\PDODUÕQÕQ ROGX÷X ED]Õ ILQDQVDONXUXPODUÕQo|NW÷GHYOHWPGDKDOHVLQLQ]RUXQOXROGX÷XELUGXUXPRODUDN 7 RUWD\D NR\PDNWDGÕU 'DYLV

(7) NUL]L NUHGL GD÷ÕOÕPÕQÕQ YH\D |Gemelerin \DSÕOPDVÕQÕQ PPNQ ROPDGÕ÷Õ ILQDQVDO VLVWHPGHNL E\N o|Nú RODUDN 8 DoÕNODPÕúWÕU 6FKZDUW]

(8) , finansal krizi, herhangi bir fiyattan ödemelerinin \DSÕOPD\DFD÷ÕNRUNXVXQDGD\DQGÕ÷ÕQÕQDNLWEXOPDNLoLQDúÕUÕNDPXPGDKDOHVLQLQ \DSÕOGÕ÷Õ EDQNDFÕOÕN VLVWHPLQGHNL UH]HUY VÕNÕúÕNOÕ÷ÕQÕQ RUWD\D oÕNWÕ÷Õ EDQNDODUÕQ YHUGL÷LNUHGLOHULJHULoD÷ÕUÕS\HQLNUHGLOHULYHUPHGL÷LYHYDUOÕNODUÕQÕVDWWÕ÷ÕELUGXUXP 5 M. Bordo, “Financial Crises: Lessons From History”, 8OXVODUDUDVÕ*DUGHQ)LQDQV .RQIHUDQVÕ,1987, aktaran Kindleberger, Charles P. &LQQHW3DQLNYHd|Nú0DOL.UL]OHU TarihiøVWDQEXO%LOJLhQLYHUVLWHVL<D\ÕQODUÕ s.9, 2000. 6 V, Sundararajan. and T. JT, Balino. Banking Crises: Cases and Issues, Washington DC: IMF. 1991, aktaran Gup, Benton E. , Bank Failures in The Major Trading Countries Of The World: Causes And Remedies, Greenwood Publishing Group, s.7, 1998. 7 E. P. Davis, Debt, Financial Fragility and Systemic Risk, Revised And Expanded Edition, Newyork: Oxford Unv. Press. 1995, aktaran; Gup, Benton E. Bank Failures in The Major Trading Countries Of The World: Causes And Remedies, Greenwood Publishing Group, s.117, 1998. 8 A. Schwartz, “ Systemic Risk and the Macroeconomy” in Kaufman, G.G. (ed) Research in financial Services, 7.19-30, Greenwich, JAI press, 1995, aktaran; Gup, Benton E. , Bank Failures in The Major Trading Countries of The World: Causes And Remedies, Greenwood Publishing Group, s.7, 1998,. 3.

(9) Prof. Dr. Suat OKTAR*Dr. Levent DALYANCI 9. RODUDNEHOLUWPLúWLU0LVKNLQ

(10) ise finansal krizi asimetrik enformasyon teorisi çerçevesinGH HOH DOPÕúWÕU %X WDQÕPD J|UH ILQDQVDO NUL] ³)LQDQVDO SL\DVDODUGD WHUV VHoLP YH DKODNL ER]XOPD SUREOHPOHULQLQ GDKD GD DUWPDVÕ VHEHEL\OH ILQDQVDO SL\DVDODUÕQIRQODUÕHQUHWNHQ\DWÕUÕPIÕUVDWODUÕLoLQHWNLQELUúHNLOGHGD÷ÕWDPDGÕ÷Õ GR÷UXVDOROPD\DQER]XOPDODUGÕU´0LVKNLQ¶HJ|UHILQDQVDONUL]ILQDQVDOSL\DVDODUÕQ HWNLQ ELU úHNLOGH LúOHYLQL \HULQH JHWLUPHVLQL HQJHOOH\HUHN LNWLVDGL IDDOL\HWOHUGH keskin bir daralmaya yol açar. 10. Kindlerberger (2000), finansal krizleri, içerisinde etki-hacim ve küresel DoÕGDQ |QHPOL GHUHFHGH ILQDQVDO NUL]OHULQ ROGX÷X LNWLVDGL GDOJDODQPDODUÕQ ]LUYH G|QHPOHUL\OHLOLúNLOLROGX÷XQX YXUJXODPÕúWÕU )LQDQVDO NUL]L³ILQDQVDOJ|VWHUJHOHULQ WPQQ \D GD oR÷XQXQ –NÕVD YDGHOL IDL]OHU YH YDUOÕNODUÕQ KLVVH VHQHGL gayrimenkul, aUVD

(11) IL\DWODUÕ WLFDUL LIODVODU ILQDQVDO NXUXPODUÕQ EDúDUÕVÕ]OÕNODUÕ– NHVNLQ NÕVD XOWUD- G|QJVHO úHNLOGH ER]XOPDVÕGÕU¶¶ úHNOLQGH DoÕNODPÕúWÕU .LQGOHUEHUJHU WDQÕPGD G|YL] SUREOHPOHULQL ]RUXQOX RODUDN GÕúDUÕGD EÕUDNWÕ÷ÕQÕ GD 11 YXUJXODPÕúWÕU húU

(12) , LNWLVDGL NUL] WHRULOHULQLQ E\N ELU NÕVPÕQÕQ NUL] GL\H QLWHOHQHQ ROJXQXQ EHONL VHQWDNVÕQÕ YHUHELOGL÷LQL DPD JUDPHULQL YHUPH QRNWDVÕQGD úSKHOL ROGX÷XQX EHOLUWPLúWLU )LQDQVDO NUL]OHULQ ROXúPDVÕQGD SHN oRN faktör söz konusudur. Bu faktörler, ülke ekonomisi ya da küresel ekonomiden ND\QDNODQDELOGL÷LJLELILQDQVDOVHNW|UYHUHHOVHNW|UGHQGHND\QDNODQDELOLU)LQDQVDO NUL]OHULQRUWD\DoÕNPDYH\D\ÕOPDVUHoOHUL]DPDQDHNRQRPLQLQLoLQGHEXOXQGX÷X NRúXOODUD LNWLVDGL NRQMRQNWUH NXUXPVDO YH SROLWLN \DSÕlara, iktisadi birimlerin WHUFLKOHULQHYESHNoRNIDNW|UHED÷OÕRODUDNPH\GDQDJHOPHNWHYHHNRQRPLJHQHOLQH \D\ÕOPDJ|VWHUPHNWHGLU*HOLúPHNWHRODQONHOHUGHILQDQVDONUL]OHULQROXúXPHYUHOHUL 12 oRN oHúLWOL ROXS IDUNOÕ DúDPDODU L]OH\HELOPHNWHGLU 0LVKNLQ (2001) JHOLúPHNWH RODQ ONHOHUGH ILQDQVDO NUL]OHULQ JHOLúPH DúDPDODUÕQÕ D

(13) ILQDQVDO YH UHHO VHNW|U ILUPDODUÕQÕQ ELODQoRODUÕQGD ER]XOPD E

(14) G|YL]SDUD NUL]L F

(15) ILQDQVDO NUL] úHNOLQGH VÕQÕIODPÕúWÕU %XQD J|UH LON DúDPDGD ILQDQVDO YH UHHO VHNW|U ILUPDODUÕQÕQ ELODQoRODUÕQGDER]XOPDODUEDúJ|VWHULU%XGXUXPG|YL]NUL]LROXúPDVÕQD\RODoDU '|YL] NUL]L ILQDQVDO YH UHHO VHNW|U ILUPDODUÕQÕQ ELODQoRODUÕQGD GDKD GD GHULQ ER]XOPDODUD \RO DoDUDN ILQDQVDO NUL]LQ ROXúPDVÕQD QHGHQ ROXU )LQDQVDO NUL]OHULQ WUOHUHD\UÕOPDVÕLVHILQDQVDOVLVWHPLROXúWXUDQWHPHONXUXPODUWHPHOGH÷LúNHQOHUYH WHPHO LOLúNLOHUGHNL ER]XOPDODUD ED÷OÕ RODUDN WDQÕPODQPDNWDGÕU %X oHUoHYHGH 13 finansal krizler dört grupta incelenmektedir :. 9. Frederic S. Mishkin. “Understanding Financial Crises: A Developing Country Perspective”, NBER Working Paper No. 5600, s.17, 1996. 10 Charles P, Kindleberger. &LQQHW3DQLNYHd|Nú0DOL.UL]OHU7DULKL (Çev. Halil 7XQDOÕ

(16) øVWDQEXO%LOJLhQLYHUVLWHVL<D\ÕQODUÕs.6, 2000. 11 øúD\DhúU³.UL]%LU.DYUDP$oÕNODPD1RWX´0ONL\HOLOHU%LUOL÷L'HUJLVL, Cilt: XXIII, 6D\Õ 12 F.S. Mishkin, Financial Policies And The Prevention of Financial Crises In Emerging Market Countries. NBER Working Paper. 8087, s.8, 2001. 13 IMF “Financial Crises: Characteristics and Indicators of Vulnerability” in Financial Crises: Causes And Indicators, World Economic aQG)LQDQFÕDO6XUYH\V:RUOG(FRQRPLF Outlook, s.74-75, 1998.. 4.

(17) a)Döviz/Para Krizi (Currency Crisis): %LU ONH SDUDVÕQD \DSÕODQ ELU VSHNODWLI VDOGÕUÕ\D ED÷OÕ RODUDN ONH SDUDVÕQGD |QHPOL |OoGH UHVPL RWRULWHQLQ GHYDODV\RQD JLWPHN ]RUXQGD NDOGÕ÷Õ YH\D ONH SDUDVÕQÕQ |QHPOL |OoGH GH÷HU ND\EHWWL÷L VKDUSGHSUHFLDWLRQ

(18) YH\DONHQLQE\N|OoHNOLXOXVODUDUDVÕUH]HUYOHUL\OH ve\D IDL]OHUGH NHVNLQ ELU DUWÕúOD SDUDVÕQÕ VDYXQPD\D oDOÕúWÕ÷Õ NUL]OHUGLU E

(19) %DQNDFÕOÕN.UL]L %DQNLQJ&ULVLV

(20) %DWPDQRNWDVÕQDJHOHQ\DGDJHOPHRODVÕOÕ÷Õ RODQ EDQNDODUÕQ \NPOONOHULQLERUoODUÕQÕ oHYLUPH |]HOOLNOHULQL ND\EHWW÷L YH\D devletin büyük öOoHNOLPGDKDOHOHUOHGHVWHNYHUPHN]RUXQGDNDOGÕ÷ÕELUGXUXPGXU c) Sistemik Finansal Krizler (Systemic Financial Crises) : )LQDQVDOSL\DVDODUÕQ HWNLQ ELU úHNLOGH LúOHYOHULQL \HULQH JHWLUHPH\HFHN úHNLOGH FLGGL ER]XOPDODUD PDUX] NDOGÕ÷Õ YHVRQXFXQGDGDUHHOHNRQRPL\HE\N|OoHNOL]DUDUYHUGL÷LELUGXUXPGXU %LUVLVWHPLNNUL]G|YL]NUL]LQLLoHUHELOLUDQFDNELUG|YL]NUL]LWHNEDúÕQD|GHPHOHU GHQJHVLQH]DUDUYHUPH\HELOLU%XQHGHQOHG|YL]NUL]LVLVWHPLNILQDQVDONUL]HHúGH÷HU GH÷LOGLU G

(21) 'Õú %RUo .UL]L %LU ONHQLQ |]HO YH\D NDPX VHNW|U ERUoODUÕQÕ ödeyememesi durumudur. Finansal krizlerin yukarda belirtilen bu türleri, birlikte YH\D NDUúÕOÕNOÕ HWNLOHúLP KDOLQGH ELUELUOHULQL WHWLNOH\HUHN RUWD\D oÕNDELOLU )LQDQVDO sisteme, ekonomi geneline ve hatta kürHVHOHNRQRPLJHQHOLQHIDUNOÕPHNDQL]PDODU DUDFÕOÕ÷Õ\OD\D\ÕODELOLU 14. Kaminsky (2006) ¶GHQ LWLEDUHQ ELU ILQDQVDO NUL]OHU IXU\DVÕ EDúOD\DUDN JHOLúPHNWH RODQ ONHOHU YH JHOLúPLú ONHOHUGH |QHPOL LNWLVDGL VRUXQODU \DUDWWÕ÷ÕQÕ EX NUL]OHUH ED÷OÕ RODUDN VSHNODWLI DWDNODU WHPHOLQGH oHúLWOL WHRULOHU JHOLúWLULOGL÷LQL EHOLUWPLúWLU '|YL] NUL]L PRGHOOHUL JHOLúPHNWH RODQ ONHOHUGH RUWD\D oÕNDQ G|YL] NXUXQGD PH\GDQD JHOHQ NÕUÕOPDODUÕ DoÕNODPD\D \|QHOLN JHOLúWLULOPLú PRGHOOHUGLU *HOLúPHNWH RODQ ONHOHUGHNL NUL]OHULQ ]DPDQD ONH NRúXOODUÕQD J|UH IDUNOÕOÕNODUDU]HWPHVLEXQODUÕDoÕNODPD\D\|QHOLNPRGHOOHULQGHIDUNOÕODúPDVÕQD\RO DoPÕúWÕU'L÷HUELULIDGH\OHWPG|YL]NUL]OHULQLDoÕNODPD\ÕWHNEDúÕQDEDúDUDELOHQ ELUPRGHOKHQ]JHOLúWLULOHPHPLúWLU*HOLúWLULOHQPodeller üç grupta incelenmektedir. Bunlar, a) Birinci Nesil Döviz Krizi Modelleri, b) øNLQFL 1HVLO '|YL] .UL]L Modelleri, c) Üçüncü Nesil Döviz Krizi Modelleri RODUDN VÕQÕIODQPDNWDGÕU Mishkin (1994) 15 ILQDQVDO NUL]LQ WDQÕPODQPDVÕ YH oHUoHYHVLQLQ EHOLUOHQPHVLQGH OLWHUDWUQ LNL\H E|OQG÷Q EXQODUGDQ ELULQFL NHVLPLQ PRQHWDULVWOHU YH GL÷HU NHVLPLQ LVH .LQGOHUEHUJHU YH 0LQVN\¶QLQ ROXúWXUGX÷X GDKD HNOHNWLN ELU \DNODúÕP 16 ROGX÷XQXYXUJXODPÕúWÕU0RQHWDULVWOerin, Friedman ve Schwarts (1963) oDOÕúPDODUÕ LOH EDúODGÕ÷ÕQÕ YH ILQDQVDO NUL]OHUL EDQNDFÕOÕN NUL]OHUL LOH LOLúNLOHQGLUGLNOHULQL YXUJXODPÕúWÕU3DUDDU]ÕQGDNLFLGGLGDUDOPDODUÕQEDQNDFÕOÕNVHNW|UQGHSDQLNOHUH\RO açarak, ABD ekonomisinde büyük iktisadi GDUDOPDODUDQHGHQROGX÷XQXEHOLUWPLúWLU 0RQHWDULVWOHU YDUOÕN IL\DWODUÕQGDNL GúúOHUH LIODVODUGDNL DUWÕúODUD \RO DoPDVÕQD UD÷PHQ EDQNDFÕOÕN VHNW|UQGH SDQLN ROXúWXUPD\DQ YH SDUD DU]ÕQGD NHVNLQ GúúOH VRQXoODQDQROD\ODUÕJHUoHNILQDQVDONUL]OHURODUDN görmezler. %XQODUÕVDKWHILQDQVDO 14. Graciela L. Kaminsky. “Currency crises: Are they all the same?” Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol: 25, 503, 2006. 15 Frederic S, Mishkin.“Preventing Financial Crises: An International Perspective” NBER Working Paper No. 4636, s.2, 1994. 16 Milton Friedman, and Anna J. Schwartz. “Money and Business Cycles” The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 45, No. 1, Part 2, Supplement, s. 32-64, 1963.. 5.

(22) Prof. Dr. Suat OKTAR*Dr. Levent DALYANCI. kriz (pseudo-ILQDQFLDOFULVHV

(23) RODUDNWDQÕPODPDNWDGÕUODU'DKDVÕKNPHWLQEXVDKWH ILQDQVDO NUL]OHUH PGDKDOHVLQLQ JHUHNVL] ROGX÷XQD KDWWD \DUDUGDQ oRN \NVHN HQIODV\RQD\RODoPDNJLEL]DUDUJHWLUHFH÷LQHGLNNDWoHNPLúOerdir. Mishkin (1994)17 0RQHWDULVWOHULQ ILQDQVDO NUL]OHUH LOLúNLQ DoÕNODPDODUÕQD NDUúÕ ELU J|Uú RODUDN .LQGOHUEHUJHU

(24) YH 0LVQN\

(25) ¶LQ J|UúOHUL V|] NRQXVXGXU 0LVKNLQ

(26) ¶HJ|UH.LQGOHUEHUJHUYH0LVQN\¶QLQILQDQVDONUL]]HULQHWHPHOJ|UúOHULúX úHNLOGHGLU ³)LQDQVDO NUL] ILQDQVDO YH UHHO VHNW|U NXUXOXúODUÕQ LIODVODUÕ YDUOÕN IL\DWODUÕQGD Gúú G|YL] NXUXQGD ER]XOPDODU GHIOkV\RQODU GH]HQIODV\RQODU \D GD EXQODUÕQIDUNOÕELOHúLPOHULQGHQROXúDELOLU´0LVKNLQ

(27) ¶HJ|UH.LQGOHUEHUJHUYH 0LVQN\¶GH ILQDQVDO NUL]OHU HNRQRPL JHQHOLQH \D\ÕODQ FLGGL ROXPVX] VRQXoODU GR÷XUDELOLU%XGXUXPGDILQDQVDONUL]LQHWNLOHULQLVÕQÕUODPDNLoLQGHYOHWPGDKDOHVL gereklidir. Mishkin (1994), Kindlerberger ve Misnky’nin finansal kriz üzerine J|UúOHULQLQ JoO ELU ILQDQVDO NUL] WHRULVL RUWD\D NR\PDGÕ÷ÕQÕ GL÷HU \DQGDQ |QHUGLNOHUL GHYOHW PGDKDOHVLQLQ KHU ]DPDQ LoLQ \DUDUOÕ VRQXoODU GR÷XUPD\DELOHFH÷ÕQLEHOLUWPLúWLU0RQHWDULVWOHULQILQDQVDONUL]WHRULVLQLQLVHVDGHFH SDUD DU]ÕQGDNL GDUDOPD\D YH EDQND SDQLNOHULQH RGDNODQGÕ÷Õ LoLQ GDU NDSVDPOÕ ROGX÷XQX YXUJXODPÕúWÕU 'L÷HU \DQGDQ ILQDQVDO NUL]OHUH \RO DoDQ VLVWHPLN ULVNOHUOH LOJLOLWHRULN\DNODúÕPODUOLWHUDWUGHIDUNOÕODúPDNWDGÕU'DYLV¶H

(28) 18’ göre, ILQDQVDO VLVWHPGHNL NUL]OHULQ JHQHO \DSÕVÕ ILQDQsal sistem ve kurumlara yönelik SDQL÷HED÷OÕKFXPODU FRQWDJLRXVUXQV

(29) YHEXSDQLNOHULHQJHOOHPH\H\|QHOLNRODUDN finansal sistemdeki düzenlemelerdir (financial regulation). Bu çerçevede, finansal NUL]OHULQ EWQ\OH DoÕNODPD\D \|QHOLN \DNODúÕPODU D

(30) monHWDULVW \DNODúÕP, b) DúÕUÕ-ERUoODQPD YH ILQDQVDO NÕUÕOJDQOÕN \DNODúÕPÕ, c) rasyonel beklentiler \DNODúÕPÕ, d) EHOLUVL]OLN \DNODúÕPÕ, e) NUHGL WD\ÕQODPD \DNODúÕPÕ, f) asimetrik HQIRUPDV\RQDUDFÕOÕNJLGHUOHUL\DNODúÕPÕ, g) DUDFÕSL\DVDODUGLQDPL÷L\DNODúÕPÕ, úHNOLQGHVÕQÕIODQDELOPHNWHGLU Bordo, M. (1998) 19 ILQDQVDO NUL]OHUL DoÕNODPD\D \|QHOLN \DNODúÕPODUÕ JHOHQHNVHO\DNODúÕPODULoLQGHPRQHWDULVW\DNODúÕPYHILQDQVDONÕUÕOJDQOÕN\DNODúÕPÕ RODUDN NDEXO HWPLúWLU %X \DNODúÕPODU LoHULVLQGH UDV\RQHO EHNOHQWLOere dayanan \DNODúÕPODUÕ UDVVDO-SDUD oHNLúL WHRULVL UDQGRP ZLWKGUDZDOV WKHRU\

(31) YH DVLPHWULN HQIRUPDV\RQ\DNODúÕPÕRODUDNLIDGHHWPLúWLU'LDPRQG'DQG'\EYLJ3

(32) 20 GDKD |QFH DoÕNODQGÕ÷Õ JLEL PHYGXDW VDKLSOHULQLQ EDQNDFÕOÕN VHNW|UQH \|QHOLN güveQLQLROXPVX]HWNLOH\HFHNELUúRNXQEDQNDFÕOÕNSDQL÷L\DUDWDUDNILQDQVDONUL]H \RODoDELOHFH÷LQL YXUJXODPÕúWÕU%RUGR0

(33) 21, Friedman-Schwartz (1963) ve &DJDQ

(34) ¶ÕQ oDOÕúPDODUÕQGD EDQNDFÕOÕN NUL]L\OH ELUOLNWH RUWD\D oÕNDQ ILQDQVDO krizlerin, paUDVDO GDUDOPDQÕQ HWNLOHULQL RUWD\D oÕNDUDFD÷ÕQÕ \D GD GDKD N|WVQ 17. Frederic S. Mishkin, (1994), agm. s.2-3. E. P. Davis, (1995),agm.s117-146. E. P,Davis."Towards A Typology For Systemic Financial Instability" Economics And Finance Working Papers, Brunel University, 2003, s.3-20. 19 M, Bordo. "Currency Crises (and Banking Crises) in Historical Perspective" EHF-Research Report No:10, s.17, 1998. 20 D,Diamond. and P,Dybvig. Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity, Journal of Political Economy 91, s.401–419, 1983. 21 M, Bordo. (1998), agm.s.17. 18. 6.

(35) \DSDELOHFHNOHULQL LGGLD HWWLNOHULQL EHOLUWPLúWLU 3DUDVDO LVWLNUDUVÕ]OÕ÷Õ UHWPHVL DoÕVÕQGDQ)ULHGPDQ-6FKZDUW]

(36) oDOÕúPDODUÕQGDEDQNDFÕOÕNSDQLNOHULQHD\UÕELU |QHPYHUPLúOHUGLU0RQHWDULVWOHUILQDQVDONUL]OHULEDQNDFÕOÕNNUL]OHUL\OHELUOLNWHHOH DOÕUODU YH NUL]LQ QHGHQLQL SDUD DU]ÕQGDNL GDUDOPDODUD ED÷ODUODU )ULHGPDQ YH 22 Schwartz (1963) oDOÕúPDODUÕQGD SDUD DU]ÕQGDNL GH÷LúLP RUDQÕ YH LNWLVDGL GDOJDODQPDODU DUDVÕQGDNL LOLúNL\L LQFHOHPLúOHUGLU 3DUD DU]ÕQGDNL GH÷LúLP RUDQÕ LOH LNWLVDGL GDOJDODQPDODU DUDVÕQGD |]HOOLNOH JHOLU GDOJDODQPDODUÕ DUDVÕQGD

(37) \DNÕQ ELU LOLúNL EXOPXúODUGÕU )ULHGPDQ YH 6FKZDUW]

(38) SDUD DU]ÕQGDNL GDUDOPDODUÕQ EDQNDFÕOÕN NHVLPL GHQJHOHULQL ROXPVX] HWNLOH\HUHN EDQNDFÕOÕN VHNW|UQGH SDQLNOHUH \RODoDUDNLNWLVDGLGDOJDODQPDODUD\RODoWÕ÷ÕQÕEHOLUWPLúOHUGLU-1938 döneminde \DúDQDQ DOWÕ NUL]GH EDQNDFÕOÕN NHVLPL QDkit-PHYGXDW RUDQÕQGDNL ER]XOPD\D EDQNDFÕOÕN NUL]OHULQLQ HúOLN HGHUHN LNWLVDGL GDOJDODQPDODUÕQ RUWD\D oÕNWÕ÷ÕQÕ WHVSLW HWPLúOHUGLU )ULHGPDQ YH 6FKZDUWV

(39) &DJDQ¶QÕQ GD oDOÕúPDODUÕQGD SDUD DU]ÕQGDNLGH÷LúLPYHLNWLVDGLGDOJDODQPDODUDUDVÕQGD\DNÕQELU LOLúNLEXOGX÷XQX|QH VUPúWU%RUGR0

(40) J|UHEDQNDFÕOÕNNUL]OHULQLQROXúPDVÕQGD)ULHGPDQYH 6FKZDUW]¶ÕQEDQNDODUDNDUúÕJYHQOHULQLND\EHGHQWRSOXPXQPHYGXDWODUÕQÕQQDNGH oHYLUPH SDQL÷L ROGX÷XQX YXUJXODGÕNODUÕQÕ EHOLUWPLúWLU )LQDQVDO NUL]OHUin ROXúPDVÕQGD |QHPOL IDNW|UOHUGHQ ELULVL LNWLVDGL ELULPOHULQ LNWLVDGL EHNOHQWLOHULQH J|UH \DWÕUÕP NDUDUODUÕQGDNL GROD\ÕVÕ\OD ERUoODQPD NDUDUODUÕQGDNL \DQOÕúOÕNODUÕQ UROGU%X\DQOÕúOÕNODUNLWOHVHOROGX÷XQGDILQDQVDOVLVWHPNÕUÕOJDQELUGXUXPDXODúÕr YH GDKD VRQUD RUWD\D oÕNDFDN SDQLN LVH ILQDQVDO NUL]OHUL WHWLNOHU $úÕUÕ L\LPVHU EHNOHQWLOHUH ED÷OÕ \DSÕODFDN DúÕUÕ \DWÕUÕP H÷LOLPOHUL HNRQRPLGH \DSD\ ELU ]LUYHQLQ ROXúPDVÕQDRODQDNVD÷ODU1HYDUNLGDKDVRQUDVUGUOHPH\HFHNEX]LUYHGXUXPX bir dibe G|QúU%XGXUXPHNRQRPLGHNLUHHO\DWÕUÕPODUÕQUHHOGHQJHOHUGHQNRSXN ELUVÕoUDPDVÕQÕQVRQXFXRODUDNNDUúÕPÕ]DoÕNPDNWDGÕU %RUGR 0

(41) YH )LVKHU , YH

(42) ³$úÕUÕ %RUo-Deflâsyon” hipotezinin, Minsky, H. (1977), Kindlerberger, C. (1978), Kaufman, H. (1986), )ULHGPDQ %

(43) YH .LQJ 0

(44) WDUDIÕQGDQ LNWLVDGL NUL]OHUL DoÕNODPDN LoLQ JHOLúWLUGLNOHULQL EHOLUWPLúWLU 0LQVN\ +\PDQ 3

(45) 23, borç-deflasyonu (debtGHIODWLRQ

(46) GXUXPXQXQ ,UYLQJ )LVKHU

(47) ¶LQ oDOÕúPDODUÕQGD RUWD\D NRQXOGX÷XQX &KDUOHV .LQOHEHUJHU

(48) WDUDIÕQGDQ GHQJHVL]OL÷LQ EHVOHQPH VUHFL RODUDN JHOLúWLULOGL÷LQL 0DUWLQ :ROIVRQ

(49) WDUDIÕQGDQ LVH ILQDQVDO LVWLNUDUVÕ]OÕNOD LOJLOL ELU YHUL VHWL YH LNWLVDGL GDOJDODQPDODUÕQ oHúLWOL ILQDQVDO NUL] WHRULOHUL DoÕVÕQGDQ LQFHOHPHVLQLQ JHUoHNOHúWLULOGL÷LQL LIDGH HWPLúWLU )LVKHU ,

(50) 24 iktisadi GDOJDODQPDODUGD GDUDOPD G|QHPLQH JHoLúL DúÕUÕ ERUoODQPD\D YH GHIODV\RQD ED÷ODPÕúWÕU %X \DNODúÕPD J|UH GÕúVDO SR]LWLI úRNODU VRQXFXQGD LNWLVDGL dalgalanmada zirve dönemine giGLú VUHFLQGH \DWÕUÕPFÕODU DúÕUÕ JYHQ YH ND]DQo EHNOHQWLOHUL QHGHQL\OH DúÕUÕ ERUoODQPD\D YH DúÕUÕ \DWÕUÕPODUD \|QHOHFHN ELU VUH VRQUD GD DúÕUÕ ERUoOXOXN OLNLGLWH VÕNÕQWÕVÕQD \RO DoDFDNWÕU %X GXUXPGD NUHGL 22. Milton, Friedman. and Anna J. Schwartz.(1963), agm. s.3-64. Hyman P,Minsky. “ The Financial Instability Hypothesis” The Jerome Levy Economics Institute of Bard College Working Paper No. 74, 1992, Prepared For Handbook of Radical Political Economy, Edited By Philip Arestis And Malcolm Sawyer, Edward Elgar: Aldershot, s.1-10, 1993. 24 I. Fisher, "'The Debt Deflation Theory of Great Depressions'", Econometrica, No:1, s.337357, 1933. 23. 7.

(51) Prof. Dr. Suat OKTAR*Dr. Levent DALYANCI. verenlerde ve alanlarda bir panik ortaya çÕNDFDNWÕU%XGXUXPGDOLNLGLWHVÕNÕúÕNOÕ÷Õ VDWÕú EDVNÕVÕ \DUDWÕS PHYGXDW GDUDOPDODUÕ ROXúWXUXS SDUDQÕQ GRODúÕP KÕ]Õ \DYDúOD\DFDNWÕU%XWHNUDUVDWÕúEDVNÕVÕ\DUDWDUDNIL\DWVHYL\HVLQGHGúúEDúOD\DFDN EXQXQ VRQXFXQGD GD \DWÕUÕPODUÕQ GH÷HUL GúHUHN LIODVODU RUWD\D oÕNDFDNWÕU 'DYLV

(52) ERUoYHILQDQVDONÕUÕOJDQOÕN\DNODúÕPÕQÕQILQDQVDONUL]OHULQELUNUHGL JHQLúOHPHVL G|QHPLQLQ VRQ HYUHVLQGH RUWD\D oÕNDQ SR]LWLI ELU úRN VRQXFXQGD ERUoODUÕQ DúÕUÕ \NVHOPHVL NUHGLW|UOHULQ \DQOÕú IL\DWODPD \DSPDODUÕ YH ELU YDUOÕN EDORQXQRUWD\DoÕNPDVÕQD\RODoPDVÕ\ODEDúJ|VWHUGL÷LQLGHYDPÕQGDLVHQHJDWLIELU ERUoúRNX\ODEDQNDFÕOÕNNUL]LQLQRUWD\DoÕNWÕ÷ÕQÕQEHOLUWPLúWLU 0LQVN\ +\PDQ 3

(53) JHOLúWLUGL÷L ILQDQVDO LVWLNUDUVÕ]OÕN KLSRWH]LQLQ Ke\QHV¶LQ ³*HQHO 7HRULVL¶ QLQ |] ROGX÷XQX YXUJXODPÕúWÕU )LQDQVDO LVWLNUDUVÕ]OÕN KLSRWH]LQLQ GL÷HU \DQGDQ 6FKXPSHWHU

(54) ¶LQ SDUD YH ILQDQVPDQ NUHGL J|UúQGHQ GH HVLQOHQGL÷LQL YXUJXODPÕúWÕU 0LQVN\ +\PDQ 3

(55) LNWLVDGL sistemin, ekonomideki dalgDODQPDODUDNDUúÕWHSNLVLQLQGDOJDODQPD\ÕJoOHQGLUPHVL úHNOLQGH ROGX÷XQX EHOLUWPLúWLU 'L÷HU ELU LIDGH\OH HQIODV\RQ HQIODV\RQLVW VUHFL deflasyon da, deflasyonist süreci besler. 0LQVN\ +\PDQ 3

(56) ILQDQVDO LVWLNUDUVÕ]OÕN KLSRWH]LQLQ WHRULN argümDQÕQÕQ NRPSOHNV VRILVWLNH ILQDQVPDQ VLVWHPH YH SDKDOÕ VHUPD\H YDUOÕNODUÕQD VDKLS ELU NDSLWDOLVW VLVWHPH VDKLS ELU HNRQRPL YDUVD\ÕPÕ LOH EDúODGÕ÷ÕQÕ WHPHO iktisadi sorunun ise, Knightyan olarak EHWLPOHQHQ YHUL ND\QDNODUÕQ DOWHUQDWLI NXOODQÕPODUÕ DUDVÕQGD GD÷ÕOÕPÕQÕQ \DSÕOPDVÕ \HULQH HNRQRPLQLQ VHUPD\H JHOLúLPL ROGX÷XQXYXUJXODPÕúWÕU.DSLWDOLVWVLVWHPLQVHUPD\HJHOLúLPLJHOHFHNWHNLSDUDLoLQ EXJQN SDUDODUÕQ GH÷LúLPL\OH ELUOLNWH VH\UHGHU %XJQN SDUD \DWÕUÕP PDOODUÕ oÕNWÕVÕHOGHHWPHNLoLQND\QDNODUKDUFDQÕU'L÷HU\DQGDQJHOHFHNWHNLSDUDILUPDQÕQ VHUPD\HYDUOÕNODUÕQÕDUWÕUDFDNRODQNkUODUGÕU.DSLWDOLVWVLVWHPGHJHoPLúEXJQYH JHOHFHN VDGHFH VHUPD\H YDUOÕNODUÕ YH LúJF QLWHOLNOHUL LOH LOLúNLOL ROPD\ÕS D\QÕ ]DPDQGD ILQDQVDO LOLúNLOHUOH GH ED÷ODQWÕ LoHULVLQGHGLUOHU )LQDQVDO LOLúNLOHULQ GDKD NDUPDúÕN\DSÕVÕQDUD÷PHQVLVWHPLQGDYUDQÕúÕQGDDQDKWDUEHOLUOH\LFLVLNkUG]H\LGLU )LQDQVDO LVWLNUDUVÕ]OÕN KLSRWH]L .DOHFNL

(57) -Levy (1983) 25’nin, toplam talebin, NkUÕEHOLUOHGL÷LQHLOLúNLQJ|UúOHULQLNDSVDPDNWDGÕU 0LQVN\ +\PDQ 3

(58) ILQDQVDO LVWLNUDUVÕ]OÕN KLSRWH]LQLQ NDSLWDOLVW VLVWHPGHNL ERUoODUÕQ HWNLVL YH ERUoODUÕQ JHUoHNOHúPHVL ]HULQH ELU WHRUL ROGX÷XQX YXUJXODPÕúWÕU 3DUDQÕQ PLNWDU WHRULVLQLQ DNVLQH ILQDQVDO LVWLNUDUVÕ]OÕN KLSRtezi, EDQNDFÕOÕN VHNW|UQQ NDSLWDOLVW VLVWHP LoLQ oRN |QHPOL HWNLVL RODQ ELU NkUOÕOÕN VUHFLQH J|UH oDOÕúWÕ÷ÕQÕ NDEXO HWPHNWHGLU %DQNDFÕOÕN VHNW|U ILQDQV VHNW|UQGHNL WP DUDFÕODU DQODPÕQGD

(59) NkUOÕOÕNODUÕQÕ DUWÕUPDN LoLQ VUHNOL ILQDQVDO LQRYDV\RQODU \DSDUODU 0LQVN\ +\PDQ 3

(60) ILQDQVDO VLVWHPGHNL ILQDQVDO LQRYDV\RQODUÕQ RUWRGRNV SDUDQÕQ PLNWDU WHRULVLQLQ WHPHO YDUVD\ÕPÕ RODQ SDUDQÕQ GRODúÕP KÕ]ÕQÕQ VDELWOL÷LQL JHoHUVL] NÕODFD÷ÕQÕ EHOLUWPLúWLU 0LQVN\ +\PDQ 3

(61) ILQDQVDO sistemde, iktiVDGL ELULPOHULQ ERUoODUÕQÕQILQDQVPDQ \DSÕODUÕ LoLQ o WU \DSÕ WDQÕPODQDELOHFH÷LQL EHOLUWPLúWLU %X ILQDQVPDQ \DSÕODUÕ D

(62) +HGJH )LQDQVPDQ E

(63) Spekülatif Finansman, c) Ponzi Birimlerdir. Hedge finansman birimleri, tüm 25. Michal Kalecki, Theory of Economic Dynamics. London: Allen and Unwin, 1965. Jay Levy S. and David A. Profits And The Future of American Society. New York, Harper and Row, 1983.. 8.

(64) ERUoODUÕQÕ QDNLW DNÕPODUÕ\OD \HULQH JHWLUHQ ELULPOHUGLU %RUoODQPD \DSÕVÕQGD VHUPD\H ILQDQVPDQÕQ D÷ÕUOÕ÷Õ DUWWÕNoD KHGJH ILQDQVPDQ \DSÕVÕ GD DUWDFDNWÕU 6SHNODWLI ILQDQVPDQ ELULPOHUL ERUoODUÕQÕ QDNLW DNÕPODUÕ \HWPHVH GH JHOLU KHVDSODUÕ\OD|GH\HQELULPOHUGLU%XELULPOHUERUoODUÕQÕborçla çevirme gereksinimi GX\DUODU 3RQ]L %LULPOHUL IDDOL\HWOHULQGHQ HOGH HWWL÷L QDNLW DNÕPODUÕ DúÕUÕ \NVHN ERUoODUÕQHGHQL\OHQHERUoODUÕQÕQDQDSDUDVÕQÕQHGHIDL]OHULQL|GHPH\H\HWPH]%X ELULPOHU IDL]OHULQL |GHPHN LoLQ ELOH ERUoODQÕUODU *HOHFHNWeki gelirleri bile ERUoODUÕQÕQ IDL]OHULQL |GHPH\H \HWPH\HELOLU )LQDQVDO LVWLNUDUVÕ]OÕN KLSRWH]L HNRQRPLGHNL ERUoODQPD UHMLPOHULQLQ \DSÕVÕQD J|UH ILQDQVDO LVWLNUDUVÕ]OÕN \DSÕVÕQÕQ úHNLOOHQHFH÷LQL YXUJXODPÕúWÕU (NRQRPLGHNL LVWLNUDUOÕ \DSÕ ILQDQVDO VLVWHmdeki LVWLNUDUVÕ] UHMLP WUQH J|UH ]DPDQOD LVWLNUDUVÕ]OÕ÷D GR÷UX JLGHU (Q VRQ DúDPDGD ILQDQVDOVLVWHPGH3RQ]L%LULPOHUL¶QLQHJHPHQROGX÷XILQDQVPDQUHMLPLGHo|NHUYH iktisadi sistem krize girer. Hyman P. Minsky (1993) 26¶QLQ JHOLúWLUGL÷L ILQDQVDO NÕUÕOJDQOÕN KLSRWH]LQLQ WHPHO |]HOOL÷L ³.DSLWDOLVW VLVWHP GÕúVDO úRNODU ROPDGDQ GD LoVHO QHGHQOHUH ED÷OÕ RODUDN LNWLVDGL GDOJDODQPDODU \DUDWDELOLU EXQX HWNLOH\HQ IDNW|UOHULQ WHPHOLQGH NDSLWDOLVW HNRQRPLOHULQ LoVHO GLQDPL÷L ROXS NDSLWDOLVW VLVWHPGHNL EX NÕUÕOJDQ \DSÕ PGDKHOH YH G]HQOHPHOHUOH ELU EDQW DUDOÕ÷ÕQGD VH\UHWWLUHELOLUROPDVÕ´úHNOLQGHGLU 5DV\RQHO %HNOHQWLOHU <DNODúÕPÕ WHPHOLQGH ED]Õ NUL] PRGHOOHUL JHOLúWLULOPLúWLU %X PRGHOOHU DUDVÕQGD UDV\RQHO VSHNODWLI EDORQODU RODUDN NDEXO edilen, Cinnet (mDQLDV

(65) YHVDELWIL\DWUHMLPLQHVSHNODWLIDWDNúHNOLQGHKFXPODUYH paniklerdir. Blanchard and Watson (1982) 27 VSHNODWLI EDORQODUÕQ ILQDQVDO SL\DVDODUGD UDV\RQHO GDYUDQÕúODUOD \UWOG÷QQ LQNDU HGLOHPH\HFH÷LQH YH EX EDORQODUÕQ UHHO HNRQRPL ]HULQGH HWNLOHUL ROGX÷XQD GLNNDW oHNPLúWLU 'DYLV

(66) %ODQFKDUG DQG :DWVRQ

(67) ¶ÕQ UDV\RQHO EDORQ WDQÕPÕ RODUDN EDORQXQ GHYDP HGHFH÷L \D GD SDWOD\DFD÷Õ RODVÕOÕ÷Õ LoHUGL÷LQL EDORQ GHYDP HWWLNoH RUWDODPD getirinin, bir kriz riskini telafi etmek için, risksi] JHWLUL RUDQÕQÕ DúDFD÷ÕQÕ |QJ|UPúWU 5DV\RQHOEHNOHQWLOHUWHPHOOL NUL] \DNODúÕPÕ.UXJPDQ

(68) )ORRG YH*DUEHU

(69) YH2EVWIHOG

(70) PRGHOOHULQGHGHJ|UOU%XPRGHOOHUGH]D\ÕI LNWLVDGLWHPHOOHUHVDKLSELUHNRQRPLGHVÕQÕUOÕUH]HUYOHVUGUOemeyecek döviz kuru SROLWLNDODUÕ GXUXPXQGD VSHNODW|UOHU UDV\RQHOOLN oHUoHYHVLQGH ND]DQoODUÕQÕ PDNVLPL]H HWPHN LoLQ X\JXQ ]DPDQÕ EHNOH\HUHN G|YL] NXUXQD VSHNODWLI DWDN yaparlar. Knight, Frank H. (1921) 28LNWLVDGLIDDOL\HWOHUGHYHNkUOÕOÕNVUHoOHULQGHrisk YH EHOLUVL]OL÷LQ |QHPOL URO ROGX÷XQD LúDUHW HWPLúWLU 5LVNL |OoOHELOLU EHOLUVL]OLN RODUDN WDQÕPODUNHQ EHOLUVL]OL÷LQ LVH |OoOHPHGL÷LQL YXUJXODPÕúWÕU 'L÷HU \DQGDQ .QLJKWEHOLUVL]OL÷LQWRSOXPVDOYHHNRQRPLNJHOLúLPVUHFLQGHoRNE\NUROHVDKLS 29 ROGX÷XQX EHOLUWPLúWLU 0HOW]HU $ +

(71) , finansal krizleri anlamada 26. Minsky, Hyman P.(1993). agm. s.1-10. Olivier J. Blanchard, And Mark W. Watson “Bubbles, Expectations and Financial Markets” NBER Working Paper No. 945, s.1-30, 1982. 28 Frank H. Knight, Risk, Uncertainty And Profit, (1921), Beard Books, 2002. 29 A. H. Meltzer, "'Rational Expectations, Risk, Uncertainty, and Market Responses'", in P. Wachtel (ed.), Crisis in the Economic and Financial Structure, Salomon Bros. series on Financial Institutions and Markets, Lexington Books, Lexington, Mass, 1982. 27. 9.

(72) Prof. Dr. Suat OKTAR*Dr. Levent DALYANCI. EHOLUVL]OL÷LQ |QHPLQL YXUJXODPÕúWÕU %HOLUVL]OL÷LQ VDGHFH REMHNWLI RODVÕOÕNODUÕQ LQGLUJHQPHVLQH GX\DUOÕ ROPDGÕ÷ÕQÕ IDNDW D\QÕ ]DPDQGD UHNDEHWoL SL\DVDODUGD NkU IÕUVDWODUÕ GD VXQGX÷XQX ND\GHWPLúWLU %HOLUVL]OL÷LQ GXUD÷DQ RODVÕOÕN GD÷ÕOÕPODUÕ LOH WHPVLO HGLOHPH\HFHN UDVVDO HOHPHQWOHULQ ROGX÷X GH÷LúHQ ELU HNRQRPLN oHYUH\L \DQVÕWWÕ÷ÕQÕLIDGHHWPLúWLU%HOLUVL]OLNVDYDúODULKWLODOOHUILQDQVDONUL]OHUYHEXQODUÕQ LNWLVDGL VRQXoODUÕ JLEL HWNLOHUL WDPDPHQ REMHNWLI DQDOL]H NDUúÕ RODQ GXUXPODUD X\JXODQÕU %X GXUXPODU LNWLVDGL oHYUH\L WDKPLQ HGLOLS JHUHNOL |QOHPOHULQ DOÕQDPD\DFD÷ÕELUUHMLPHVUNOHU'DYLV(3

(73) ELOJLHNVLNOL÷LYHEHOLUVL]OLN RUWDPÕQGD NkUODUÕQ IÕUVDWODU YH LQRYDV\RQODU VD\HVLQGH HOGH HGLOHELOHFH÷LQL 6KDIHU (1986) 30 ve Schumpeter (1942) 31¶GH \DUDWÕFÕ \ÕNÕPODUD \RO DoDQ LQRYDV\RQODUÕQ ILQDQVDOSL\DVDODUGDGDDUWDQELUúHNLOGHRUWD\DoÕNWÕ÷ÕQÕYXUJXODPÕúWÕU%HOLUVL]OLNYH ILQDQVDO NUL]OHU DUDVÕQGDNL LOLúNL .H\QH]\HQ LNWLVDGL DQDOL]LQ RGDN QRNWDODUÕQGDQ birisidir. Özellikle Post-.H\QH]\HQ LNWLVDWWD EHOLUVL]OLN SL\DVD LVWLNUDUVÕ]OÕNODUÕQÕQ WHPHOLQGH \HU DODQ HQ |QHPOL IDNW|UOHUGHQ ELULGLU dQN EHOLUVL]OLN JLULúLPFLOHULQ kazanç beklentilerinin ve sermayenin PDUMLQDO YHULPOLOL÷LQLQ KHVDSODQPDVÕQGD VRUXQODU \DUDWÕU %X VRUXQODUD ED÷OÕ RODUDN RUWD\D oÕNDQ PDQLSODV\RQODU YH VSHNODV\RQODUR\QDNOÕNODUDYHNUL]OHUH\RODoDELOLU Bordo, M. (1998), finansal krize yol açacak, sistemik risklerden birisinin Mishkin (

(74) ¶GH YXUJXODQDQ DVLPHWULN HQIRUPDV\RQ ROGX÷XQX EHOLUWPLúWLU Mishkin, F.S. (1991) 32 asimetrik enformasyon literatürünün, Akerlof (1970)’a kadar X]DQGÕ÷ÕQÕQ DOWÕQÕ oL]PLúWLU %XQD J|UH ELU V|]OHúPH\H NRQX RODQ WDUDIODU DUDVÕQGD ELOJLQLQ HúLW ROPD\DQ GD÷ÕOÕPÕQD ED÷OÕ RODUDN RUWD\D oÕNDQ EHOLUVL]OLN YH WDUDIODUÕQ GUVWROPDPDVÕ DKODNLWHKOLNH

(75) \DQOÕúNDUDUODUÕQDOÕQPDVÕQD WHUVVHoLP

(76) \RODoDUDN YHND\QDNODUÕQHWNLQGD÷ÕOÕPÕQÕROXPVX]HWNLOH\HUHNUHIDKND\EÕQDQHGHQRODFDNWÕU (÷HU EX \DSÕODU HNRQRPL JHQHOLQH \D\ÕOÕUVD HNRQRPL JHQHOLQGH NUL]OHU RUWD\D oÕNDELOHFHNWLU 0LVKNLQ

(77) 33 ILQDQVDO VLVWHPLQ LúOHYLQLQ YHULPOL \DWÕUÕPODU LoLQ LNWLVDGL ELULPOHUH ILQDQVPDQ VD÷ODPDN ROGX÷XQX EHOLUWPLúWLU $QFDN 0LVKNLQ ILQDQVDO VLVWHP LoHULVLQGH WDUDIODUÕQ ELUELUOHULQLQ NUHGL GH÷HULQL ELOPHOHULQLQ ND\QDNODUÕQ HWNLQ GD÷ÕOÕPÕQGD |QHPOL ELU IDNW|U ROGX÷XQX EHOLUWPHNOH ELUOLNWH WDUDIODU DUDVÕQGDNL DVLPHWULN HQIRUPDV\RQ \D GD DKODNL WHKOLNH GXUXPX V|] NRQXVX ROXUVD EX GXUXPGD WDUDIODUÕQ WHUV VHoLP \DSDUDN ND\QDNODUÕQ HWNLQ GD÷ÕOÕPÕQÕ VD÷OD\DPD\DFDNODUÕQÕ EX GXUXPXQ ILQDQVDO VLVWHP LoHULVLQGH |QHPOL ELU |OoH÷H XODúPDVÕGXUXPXQGDGDILQDQVDOLVWLNUDUVÕ]OÕ÷DYHILQDQVDONUL]OHUH\RODoDELOHFH÷LQH GLNNDWoHNPLúWLU Mishkin’e (2001) göre, finansal krize yol açan asimetrik enformasyon VRUXQODUÕQÕ DUWÕUDQ G|UW IDNW|U V|]NRQXVXGXU %X IDNW|UOHU D

(78) Finansal Sektör %LODQoRODUÕQGD %R]XOPD b))DL] 2UDQODUÕQGD $UWÕú c)%HOLUVL]OLNWH $UWÕú d)9DUOÕN )L\DWODUÕQGDNL 'H÷LúLPH %D÷OÕ 2ODUDN 5HHO 6HNW|U %LODQoR %R]XOPD 30. J. R. Shafer, "'Managing Crises in the Emerging Financial Landscape'", OECD Economic Studies, 8, s. 56-77, 1986. 31 J. E. Schumpeter, Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy; 1942, Republ. by Unwin Paperbacks, London, 1974. 32 F.S. Mishkin, “Asymmetric Information And Financial Crises: A Historical Perspective” NBER, Working Paper, No. 3400, 1991. 33 F.S. Mishkin, (2001), agm. s. 1.. 10.

(79) úHNOLQGHGLU%XED÷ODPGDILQDQVDOVLVWHPGHEDQNDFÕODUYHILQDQVDODUDFÕODUÕQ|QHPL ILQDQVDO ND\QDNODUÕQGR÷UXGD÷ÕOÕPÕQÕ VD÷ODPDNWÕU(÷HUILQDQVDO VLVWHPGH ILQDQVDO ND\QDNODUÕQGD÷ÕOÕPÕ\DQOÕúROXUVDEXGHIDND\QDNGD÷ÕOÕPÕQGDNLHWNLQVL]OLNYHULPOL \DWÕUÕPODUD JLGHFHN ND\QDNODUÕ D]DOWDUDN YHULPVL] ND\QDNODUD GDKD ID]OD ND\QDN JLWPHVLQH\RODoDU%XGXUXPGD\DQOÕúILQDQVDOND\QDNGD÷ÕOÕPÕELUVUHVRQUDNUHGL G|QúOHULQL YH GD÷ÕOÕPÕQÕ GDKD GD ROXPVX] HWNLOH\HUHN DVLPHWULN HQIRUPDV\RQ ahlaki tehlike ve ters VHoLP IDNW|UOHULQH ED÷OÕ RODUDN JYHQVL]OL÷L GHYDPÕQGD EHOLUVL]OL÷L DUWÕUDFDN EX NRúXOODU DOWÕQGD IDL]OHU DUWDFDN DUWDQ IDL] RUDQODUÕ ERUoODQPDPDOL\HWOHULQGHNLDUWÕúELUVUHVRQUDUHHOVHNW|UELODQoRODUÕQGDER]XOPD\Õ DUWÕUDUDNILQDQVDONUL]OHULQRUWD\DoÕNPDVÕQD\RODoDFDNWÕU 34)LQDQVDOLVWLNUDUVÕ]OÕ÷D \RODoDQIDNW|UOHUJHOLúPLúYHJHOLúPHNWHRODQONHOHULoLQIDUNOÕOÕNJ|VWHUPHNWHGLU Mishkin (1999) 35 oDOÕúPDVÕQGD JHOLúPLú ONHOHU YH JHOLúPHNWH RODQ ONHOHU LoLQ ILQDQVDOLVWLNUDUVÕ]OÕ÷D\RODoDQIDNW|UOHU]HULQGHGXUPXúWXU 0LVKNLQ

(80) ¶H J|UH VDQD\LOHúPLú ONHOHU YH \NVHOHQ SL\DVD HNRQRPLOHUL DUDVÕQGD LVWLNUDUVÕ]OÕ÷ÕQ \D\ÕOPD PHNDQL]PDODUÕ DoÕVÕQGDQ LNL |QHPOL NXUXPVDO IDUN V|] NRQXVXGXU 6DQD\LOHúPLú ONHOHUGH HQIODV\RQXQ GúN ROPDVÕ uzuQYDGHOLERUoODQPD\DSÕVÕQDVDKLSROXQPDVÕG|YL]NXUXULVNOHULQLD]DOWPDNWDGÕU 'L÷HU \DQGDQ \NVHOHQ SL\DVD HNRQRPLOHULQGH \NVHN YH GH÷LúNHQ HQIODV\RQ RUDQODUÕ ERUoODQPD \DSÕVÕQÕ NÕVD YDGHOL \DSPDNWD G|YL] NXUXQX LVH LVWLNUDUVÕ] NÕOPDNWDGÕU 6DQD\LOHúPLú ONHOHU YH \NVHOHQ SL\DVD HNRQRPLOHULQLQ ILQDQVDO \DSÕODUÕQGDNL NXUXPVDOOÕ÷ÕQ IDUNOÕODúPDVÕ ULVNOHUL GH HWNLOHPHNWHGLU .XUXPVDO \DSÕODUGDNL IDUNOÕOÕNODU ILQDQVDO LVWLNUDUVÕ]OÕ÷ÕQ \D\ÕOPD PHNDQL]PDODUÕQÕ GD IDUNOÕODúWÕUPDNWDGÕU %X IDNW|UOHUGHNL ER]XOPD GHUHFHVL ILQDQVDO LVWLNUDUVÕ]OÕ÷ÕQ GHUHFHVLQL EHOLUOHPHNWHGLU 6DQD\LOHúPLú ONHOHU LOH \NVHOHQ SL\DVD HNRQRPLOHUL DUDVÕQGDNL |QHPOL IDUNODUGDQ ELULVL \NVHOHQ SL\DVD HNRQRPLOHULQGH ILQDQVDO LVWLNUDUVÕ]OÕ÷D ED÷OÕ RODUDN KHP G|YL] NXUX KHP GH EDQNDFÕOÕN NUL]LQLQ RUWD\D oÕNPDVÕGÕU Guttentag J. M.and Herring R. J.( 1984) 36, mikroekonomi düzeyinde ödünç YHUPH VUHFLQGH UHNDEHWoL ELU SL\DVDGD NUHGL úRNODUÕQÕQ VXEMHNWLI RODVÕOÕNODUÕQD ELU WHSNLRODUDNULVNSULPOHULQLQ QDVÕOROXúWX÷XQX PRGHOOHPLúOHUGLU Ahlaki tehlikenin, NUHGLWD\ÕQODPDVÕQDYHPLQLPXPVHUPD\HJHUHNVLQLPLQHQDVÕO\RODoWÕ÷ÕQÕLQFHOHPLú YH ILQDQVDO NUL]OHULQ RUWD\D oÕNPDVÕQGD NUHGL WD\ÕQODPDVÕ \DNODúÕPÕQÕ &UHGLW 5DWLRQLQJ

(81) JHOLúWLUPLúOHUGLU%XQDJ|UHHNRQRPLGHNLELUQHJDWLIúRNXQHWNLsi geride NDOGÕNWDQ VRQUD NUHGL NRúXOODUÕQÕQ DúÕUÕ NROD\ODúWÕUÕOPDVÕQD ED÷OÕ RODUDN VXEMHNWLI ULVNRODVÕOÕ÷Õ]DPDQDJ|UHD]DOPDNWDDQFDNJHUoHNULVNRODVÕOÕ÷ÕQÕQVDELWNDOGÕ÷Õ\D GDDUWWÕ÷ÕGXUXPGDNUHGLWD\ÕQODPDGHUHFHVLQGHNLDQLVÕoUDPD\DED÷OÕROarak tekrar ELU QHJDWLI úRNOD VXEMHNWLI ULVN RODVÕOÕNODUÕQÕQ VÕoUDPD J|VWHUPHVL VLVWHPLQ ILQDQVDO NUL]H JLUPHVLQH \RO DoPDNWDGÕU )LQDQVDO VLVWHPGH NUL]OHUL DoÕNODPD\D \|QHOLN JHOLúWLULOPLú IDUNOÕ \DNODúÕPODU GD V|] NRQXVXGXU %XQODU DUDVÕQGD LNLQFLO. 34. F.S. Mishkin, (2001), agm. s. 3. F.S. Mishkin, “Lessons From The Tequila Crisis”. Journal of Banking And Finance. 6D\Õs.1521–1533, 1999. 36 Guttentag J. M.And Herring R. J. "'Credit Rationing And Financial Disorder'", Journal of Finance, 39; s.1359-1382, 1984. 35. 11.

(82) Prof. Dr. Suat OKTAR*Dr. Levent DALYANCI. pL\DVDODUGD GÕúVDO úRNODUGDQ ND\QDNODQDQ DVLPHWULN HQIRUPDV\RQD ED÷OÕ DUDFÕ SL\DVDODUÕQGDNLo|NúOHU 0&'0

(83) \HUDOPDNWDGÕU. Türkiye Ekonomisinde Finansal Krizler: 1994, 2001 ve 2008-9 Krizi 7UNL\H HNRQRPLVL &XPKXUL\HW¶LQ EDúÕQGDQ LWLEDUHQ NDONÕQPD yolunda FLGGL VDQFÕODU \DúDPÕúWÕU %X VUHoWH NDUúÕODúÕODQ HQ |QHPOL VRUXQODUÕQ EDúÕQGD ILQDQVPDQ \DUDWPD YH WHNQRORML UHWPH DoÕVÕQGDQ GÕúD ED÷ÕPOÕOÕ÷ÕQ \NVHN ROPDVÕ JHOPHNWHGLU%XWHPHOVRUXQODUKHUG|QHPGHNHQGLVLQLIDUNOÕúHNLOGHKLVVHWWLUPLúYH bu VRUXQOXDODQODULoYHGÕúQHGHQOHUOHVUGUOHPH\HFHNKDOHJHOGL÷LQGHLVHLNWLVDGL NUL]OHUEDúJ|VWHUPLúWLU7UNL\HHNRQRPLVLLoLQWHPHOLNWLVDGLG|QúPOHUGHQELULVL ¶OHUOHELUOLNWHGÕúDDoÕN WLFDULVHUEHVWOHúPH

(84) HNRQRPLSROLWLNDODUÕQDJHoLOPHVLYe SL\DVD HNRQRPLVLQLQ KkNLPL\HWLQLQ HNRQRPLGH JoOHQPHVLGLU ¶OÕ \ÕOODUGD LVH ILQDQVDO VHUEHVWOHúPH SROLWLNDODUÕQÕQ X\JXODQPDVÕ\OD 7UNL\H HNRQRPLVL LoLQ \HQL IÕUVDW YH WHKGLWOHULQ RUWD\D oÕNPDVÕ V|] NRQXVX ROPXúWXU %X VUHoWH NDPX ILQDQVPDQ DoÕ÷Õ YH FDUL LúOHPOHU DoÕ÷Õ ROPDN ROPDN ]HUH NXU IDL] HQIODV\RQ GÕú WLFDUHW Lo YH GÕú ILQDQVPDQ DODQODUÕQGD VUHNOL RODUDN oHúLWOL G]H\GH VÕNÕQWÕODU NHQGLVLQLKLVVHWWLUPLúWLU1H]DPDQEXVRUXQOXDODQ\|QHWLOHPH\HFHNKDOHJHOPLúWLUR zaman Türkiye ekonomisi EDúWD G|YL] NUL]L ROPDN ]HUH ILQDQVDO YH LNWLVDGL NUL]OHUOHNDUúÕNDUúÕ\DNDOPÕúWÕU'ROD\ÕVÕ\ODLNWLVDGLNDONÕQPDVÕNÕQWÕODUÕILQDQVPDQ DoÕNODUÕQD \RO DoDUNHQ ILQDQVPDQ DoÕNODUÕQÕQ VUGUOHPHPHVL GH EDúWD ILQDQVDO krizler olmak üzere iktisadi krizlHUH\RODoPDNWDGÕU7UNL\HHNRQRPLVLLoLQLNWLVDGL NDONÕQPD VUHFLQGHNL WHPHO ]D\ÕIOÕNODUÕQGDQ RODQ NDPX NHVLPL ILQDQVPDQ DoÕ÷Õ YH FDULLúOHPOHUDoÕ÷ÕVRQUDVÕ\DúDQDQILQDQVDONUL]OHU]HULQGH|]HOOLNOHEHOLUOH\LFL UROR\QDPÕúWÕU%X ILQDQVPDQDoÕNODUÕQÕQ VUGUOHELOLUNÕOÕQPDVÕQD \|QHOLNL]OHQHQ PDNURHNRQRPL SROLWLNDODUÕQGDNL WÕNDQPDODU \DúDQGÕ÷ÕQGD GD ILQDQVDO NUL]OHU NDoÕQÕOPD]ROPXúWXU NUL]LQLQWHPHOQHGHQOHULQHEDNÕOGÕ÷ÕQGD7UNL\HHNRQRPLVLQLQ NDPX NHVLPLILQDQVPDQDoÕ÷ÕYHFDULLúOHPOHUDoÕ÷ÕEXNUL]GHGHEDúDWUROHVDKLSWLU$\UÕFD |QFHVLQGH\DúDQDQ.|UIH]6DYDúÕYH$YUXSD3DUD.UL]L (50

(85) GÕúILQDQVPDQ NRúXOODUÕQÕQ GDKD ULVNOL KDOH JHOPHVLQH \RO DoPÕúWÕU øoHULGH LVH HNRQRPLQLQ WHPHO J|VWHUJHOHULQGHNL ]D\ÕIOÕN NÕVD YDGHOL ILQDQVDO VHUPD\HQLQ \DUDWWÕ÷Õ GÕú YH Lo ILQDQVPDQLPNDQODUÕQÕQNDPXNHVLPLQGHSRSOLVWRODUDNNXOODQÕOPDVÕNDPXNHVLPL ERUo \|QHWLPLQGH SROLWLND KDWDODUÕQÕQ GD ELUOHúPHVL\OH NDPX NHVLPL ILQDQVPDQ DoÕ÷ÕQÕQVUGUOHPH\HFHNGXUXPDJHOPHVLQHQHGHQROPXúWXU 37. 37. 'HWD\OÕELOJLLoLQEN]5$JHQRU&-0F'HUPRWW$QG0(8FHU³)LVFDO,PEDODQFHV Capital Inflows And The Real Exchange Rate: The Case Of Turkey”, IMF Working Paper. s.1-31, 1996. Oya Celasun,” The 1994 Currency Crisis in Turkey “ World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No:1913, 1998. F. Özatay, “The 1994 Currency Crisis in Turkey”, The Journal of Policy Reform, 3(4), s.327-352, 2000. M. Uçer, R. Van Rijckeghem Ve R. Yolalan, “Leading Indicators Of Currency Crises: A Brief Literature Survey And An Application To Turkey” <DSÕ.UHGL(FRQRPLF5HYLHZ, Vol:9, No: 2, (December, 1998).. 12.

(86) Kazgan (2002) 38¶GH EHOLUWWL÷L JLEL NUL]L oRN úLGGHWOL IDNDW NÕVD VUHOLGLU YH \ÕOODUÕQÕQ \D] D\ODUÕQGD $YUXSD SDUD SL\DVDODUÕQGDNL NDUÕúÕNOÕ÷DYHUDNLSONHOHUGHNLGHYODDV\RQODUD\LQHL]OHQHQ³VÕFDNSDUD\ÕoHNPH´ SROLWLNDVÕQÕQHWNLVLNDUÕúPÕúWÕU%XLNLVLVRQXoWD7UNL\H¶QLQGÕúSL\DVDODUGDUHNDEHW JFQ ND\EHWPHNWH ROGX÷X EHNOHQWLVLQL \DUDWPÕúWÕU 1LWHNLP 7/¶QLQ GHYDOH HGLOHFH÷LEHNOHQWLVLQLQEDúJ|VWHUJHVLFDULLúOHPOHUELODQoRVX &ø%

(87) DoÕNODUÕQÕQ VRQXQGD PLO\DU GRODUD \DNODúPDVÕGÕU %XQD KNPHWLQ D\QÕ \ÕOÕQ VRQEDKDU D\ODUÕQGD IDL] KDGGLQL LQGLUPH SROLWLNDVÕ HNOHQPLúWLU 'HYDODV\RQ EHNOHQWLVLQLQ WHWLNOHGL÷L PLO\DU GRODUOÕN VHUPD\H NDoÕúÕ 7UNL\H¶QLQ VÕ÷ SDUD SL\DVDVÕQÕ YH ERUVDVÕQÕDOWVWHWPLúWLU 2000-2001 krizinin nedeQOHUL LQFHOHQGL÷LQGH DQD EHOLUOH\LFL IDNW|UQ |QFHNLNUL]OHUGHROGX÷XJLEL\NVHNFDULLúOHPOHUDoÕ÷ÕQÕQROGX÷XJ|UOPHNWHGLU 39 7UNL\H HNRQRPLVL NUL]LQGHQ VRQUD WHPHO HNRQRPLN VRUXQODUÕ\OD ELUOLNWH \RO DOPD\D GHYDP HWPLúWLU <DSÕVDO VRUXQODUÕ N|NWHn çözecek politikalar JHOLúWLULOHPHPLúWLU 'L÷HU \DQGDQ - \ÕOODUÕQGD $V\D YH GHYDPÕQGD GD 5XV\D HNRQRPLVLQGH \DúDQDQ NUL]OHU GÕú ILQDQVPDQ LNOLPLQL ROXPVX] HWNLOH\HUHN 7UNL\HHNRQRPLVLLoLQVÕNÕQWÕODUD\RODoPÕúWÕU.DPXNHVLPLILQDQVPDQDoÕ÷ÕQÕQYH yüksek kronik enflasyonun kontrol edilebilir ve sürdürülebilir duruma getirilmesi NDoÕQÕOPD]ROPXúWXU Kazgan (2002) 40¶ GH LIDGH HWWL÷L JLEL ³ \ÕOÕQD JHOLQGL÷LQGH 7UNL\H ¶OL YH ¶OÕ \ÕOODUÕQ EÕUDNWÕ÷Õ ROXPVX] PLUDVÕQ \NQ D\QÕ \|QGH sUGUHPH\HFHN GXUXPGD\GÕ VRQXQGD HQIODV\RQ ¶H YDUPÕúWÕ Lo ERUoODU ELU EDNÕPD oHYULOHPH] QRNWDGD\GÕ 'Õú ERUoODU GD KÕ]OD DUWPÕúWÕ \ÕOÕ EX G|QHPLQKHUDoÕGDQELUGRUXN\ÕOÕROGXD\UÕFDL]OH\HQ\ÕOODUDUGDUGDGÕúVDOQLWHOLNOL ROXPVX]OXNODUÕ JHWLUGL %LU ROXPVX]OXN ND\QD÷Õ $V\D-Rusya krizinin Türkiye’ye \DQVÕ\DUDNEDúÕQGDQLWLEDUHQPDOYHKL]PHWLKUDFDWJHOLUOHULQLYHERUVD\DJLUHQ SRUWI|\ \DWÕUÕPODUÕQÕ ROXPVX] \|QGH HWNLOHPHVL\GL %X ROXPVX] HWNLOHU VUHUNHQ hükümet enflasyonu indirme DPDoOÕ ELU SURJUDPÕ GHYUH\H VRNWX ,0) LOH $UDOÕN ¶GD ³\DNÕQ L]OHPH´ DQODúPDVÕ LP]DODGÕ $N\] <ÕOPD] YH %RUDWDY .RUNXW 41 (2003) ¶ÕQLIDGHHWWL÷LJLEL7UNL\HHNRQRPLVLNDPXNHVLPLILQDQVPDQDoÕ÷ÕQÕYH NURQLNOHúPLú\NVHNHQIODV\RQXDúD÷Õ\DoHNPHKHGHILoHUoHYHVLQGH$UDOÕN-1999’da ,0)¶OH G|YL] NXUX WHPHOOL ELU LVWLNUDU SURJUDPÕ X\JXODPD\D VRNXOGX %X WHPHOGH NDPX KDUFDPDODUÕQÕQ NÕVÕOPDVÕ DQODPÕQD JHOL\RUGX $YUDV\D E|OJHVLQGHQ 5XV\D 38 *OWHQ.D]JDQ³6RQUDVÕ<ÕOODUGD7UNL\H¶GH.UL]OHU9HøúVL]OLNdDOÕúDQODU9H 6RV\DO*YHQOLNOHULøoLQd|]POHU$oÕVÕQGDQ%LUøUGHOHPH´-0D\ÕV*DODWDVDUD\ Üniversitesi, s.5, 2002. 39 $KPHW<ÕOPD]YH7RJDQ.DUDWDú³7UNL\H(NRQRPLVL¶QGH6RQUDVÕ6UHoWH&DUL øúOHPOHU$oÕ÷ÕQÕQ1HGHQOHULh]HULQH%LUøQFHOHPH´0høNWLVDGLYHøGDUL%LOLPOHU Fakültesi Dergisi<ÕO&LOW;;9,,6D\Õ II, s. 70-71. 40 'HWD\OÕ bilgi için bkz: Gülten Kazgan, (2002), agm, s.7. Gülten Kazgan, Türkiye Ekonomisinde Krizler (1929-2001) : ''Ekonomi Politik'' $oÕVÕQGDQ%LUøUGHOHPHøVWDQEXOøVWDQEXO%LOJLhQLYHUVLWHVL Gülten Kazgan, .UHVHOOHúPHve Ulus-Devlet Yeni Ekonomik DüzenøVWDQEXOøVWDQEXO %LOJLhQLYHUVLWHVL<D\ÕQODUÕ 41 <ÕOPD]$N\] ve Korkut Boratav ,"The Making Of The Turkish Financial Crisis" World Development Vol: 31, No: 9, s. 1549–1566, 2003.. 13.

(88) Prof. Dr. Suat OKTAR*Dr. Levent DALYANCI. NUL]LQL L]OH\HUHN ERUVDODUGDQ NDoDQ VHUPD\H 7UNL\H¶\L GH NDSVDPÕQD DOPÕú ERUVD WDULKVHOELUGLEHYXUXúX\DúDPÕúWÕ´ Alper, C. Emre. (2001) 42OLNLGLWHNUL]LQLQROXúPDVÕQDHWNLHGHQWHPHO IDNW|UOHU RODUDN VHUPD\H JLULúOHULQLQ VUHNOLOL÷LQL VD÷ODPD YH EHNOHQWLOHULQ \|QHWLOPHVLQGH KNPHWLQ KDWDODUÕ ,0) SURJUDPÕQGDNL NXU ULVNLQH NDUúÕ \HWHUOL GHVWH÷LQVD÷ODQPDVÕQGDHNVLNOL÷LLIDGHHWPLúWLU3URJUDPGDNLELUWDVDUÕPKDWDVÕQÕQGD VWHULOL]DV\RQ SROLWLNDVÕ LOH LOJLOL ROGX÷XQX EHOLUWPLúOHUGLU 'L÷HU \DQGDQ SHWURO IL\DWODUÕQGDNL)('IDL]OHULQGHNL\NVHOPHOHU (XURSDULWHVLQGHNLROXPVX]JLGLúDW JLEL ROXPVX] GÕúVDO NRúXOODU YH 7UNL\H¶GHNL EDQNDFÕOÕN VLVWHPLQGHNL NÕUÕOJDQ \DSÕQÕQ HWNLVL\OH ùXEDW NUL]LQLQ RUWD\D oÕNWÕ÷Õ YXUJXODQPÕúWÕU 43. Yeldan (2002) 44¶ÕQLIDGHHWWL÷LJLELQHR-OLEHUDOKHJHPRQ\DQÕQD]JHOLúPLúXOXVODUD|QHUGL÷L ³NDONÕQPD´ PRGHOL GDUDOWÕFÕ SDUD YH PDOL\H SROLWLNDODUÕQD GD\DQDQ YH \NVHN ILQDQVDO JHWLUL YH GHYDODV\RQ ULVNLQGHQ DUÕQGÕUÕOPÕú ELU G|YL] NXUX VLVWHPLQL DPDoOD\DQGÕúDDoÕN \DEDQFÕVHUPD\H\HED÷ÕPOÕ

(89) ELULNWLVDGL\DSÕ\Õ|QJ|UPHNWedir. %X \DSÕ DOWÕQGD PHUNH] EDQNDODUÕ ³ED÷ÕPVÕ]´ NÕOÕQDUDN VDGHFH YH VDGHFH XOXVDO SDUDQÕQGH÷HULQLNRUXPDNODJ|UHYOHQGLULOPHNWH YHEXDPDFÕQGÕúÕQGDEDúNDKLoELU URO R\QDPDPDODUÕ LoLQ HOOHULQGHNL EWQ PGDKDOH RODQDNODUÕ NÕVÕWODQPDNWDGÕU Kamunun mali\H SROLWLNDODUÕ LVH GR÷UXGDQ GR÷UX\D ³IDL] GÕúÕ ID]OD YHUHQ EWoH´ DPDFÕQDPDKNPHGLOPHNWHGLU.DPXWNHWLPYH\DWÕUÕPKDUFDPDODUÕQGDROD÷DQVW NHVLQWLOHU SDKDVÕQD VD÷ODQPDVÕ EHNOHQHQ EX SROLWLND VRQXFXQGD NDPXVDO DODQÕQ VÕQÕUODUÕQÕQ DODELOGL÷LQFH GDUDOWÕOPDVÕ |QJ|UOPHNWH YH NDPXQXQ JHOHQHNVHO RODUDN NkU DPDFÕ JWPH\HQ WP VRV\DO DOW\DSÕ IDDOL\HWOHUL ILQDQVDO VHUPD\HQLQ VSHNODWLI IDDOL\HWDODQÕQDoHNLOPHNWHGLU*HOLúPHNWHRODQONHOHULQKLoELULQGHDUWÕNIDL]GÕúÕ– birincil- EWoHGH DoÕN YHUHELOHQ KHUKDQJL ELU HNRQRPL NDOPDPÕúWÕU 1HR-liberal |÷UHWLNUHVHOOHúPHQLQQLPHWOHULQGHQ\DUDUODQÕOPDVÕLoLQXOXVDOPHUNH]EDQNDODUÕQÕQ |]JQSDUDIDL]YHG|YL]NXUXSROLWLNDODUÕ\ODXOXVODUDUDVÕVHUPD\HDNÕPODUÕQDD\DN ED÷ÕROPDPDVÕJHUHNWL÷LQLGLNWHHWPHNWHGLU%XQDJ|UH0HUNH]EDQNDODUÕQÕQJ|UHYL IL\DW YH NXULVWLNUDUÕQÕVD÷ODPDN YH XOXVDOSL\DVDGD \NVHNILQDQVDO JHWLULG]H\LQL NRUXPDNROPDOÕNDPXPDOL\HVLLVHGR÷UXGDQGR÷UX\DXOXVODUDUDVÕVHUPD\HQLQoÕNDU DODQÕQÕJHQLúOHWPHNLoLQJHUHNOLWPWHGELUOHULDOPDNOD NRúXOODQGÕUÕOPDOÕGÕU 2008- NUL]LQLQ QHGHQOHUL YH VRQXoODUÕQÕ LQFHOHGL÷LPL]GH $%'¶GH RUWDVÕQGDQNRQXWVHNW|UQGHNLVRUXQODUODEDúJ|VWHULS¶LQVRQoH\UH÷LQGH NHQGLVLQL NUHVHO oDSWD KLVVHWWLUHQ YH ¶XQ LON oH\UH÷LQGH GLS \DSDUDN LNLQFL oH\UHNWHQ LWLEDUHQ GLSWHQ G|Qú VHUJLOH\HQ NUHVHO LNWLVDGL NUL] WP ONHOHU LoLQ |QHPOL |OoGH UHWLP YH UHIDK ND\ÕSODUÕQD \RO DoPÕúWÕU .UL]LQ \D\ÕOPD 42. C. Emre. Alper, “The Turkish Liquidity Crisis of 2000: What Went Wrong”· forthcoming: Russian and East European Finance and Trade, Vol: 37, No: 6, s. 51-71, 2001. 43 'HWD\OÕELOJLLoLQEN]<$N\]YH.%RUDWDY³7UNL\H¶GH)LQDQVDO.UL]LQ2OXúXPX´ ,NWLVDW,úOHWPHFinans, s.15-45, 2002. K. Boratav, “2000/2001 Krizlerinde Sermaye Hareketleri”, 0ONL\H%LUOL÷L'HUJLVL, Cilt: XXV, SD\Õs.207-220, 2002. Erinç Yeldan, .UHVHOOHúPH6UHFLQGH7UNL\H(NRQRPLVL%|OúP%LULNLP9H BüyümeøVWDQEXOøOHWLúLP<D\ÕQODUÕ$UDúWÕUPD-øQFHOHPH'L]LVL 44 (ULQo<HOGDQ³1HROLEHUDO.UHVHOOHúPHøGHRORMLVLQLQ.DONÕQPD6|\OHPLh]HULQH 'H÷HUOHQGLUPHOHU´Praksis, s.9, 2002.. 14.

(90) PHNDQL]PDVÕ NUHVHO G]H\GH EHNOHQWLOHULQ NUHGL PHNDQL]PDODUÕQÕQ YH WDOHELQ ER]XOPDVÕQDED÷OÕRODUDN, iflaslar, üretim ve istihdamda bozulmalar olarak kendisini J|VWHUPLúWLU 7UNL\H HNRQRPLVL GH D\QÕ PHNDQL]PDODUGDQ HWNLOHQHUHN NUHVHO NUL]GHQSD\ÕQDGúHQUHWLPYHUHIDKND\EÕQÕDOPÕúWÕU 7UNL\H HNRQRPLVL LoLQ XOXVODUDUDVÕ ILQDQVDO ULVNOHULQLQ DUWPDVÕQD ED÷OÕ RODUDN 7UNL\H HNRQRPLVL LoLQ GH |]HOOLNOH G|YL] YH KLVVH VHQHGL SL\DVDODUÕQGD ULVNOHUDUWPÕúWÕU'L÷HU\DQGDQYRODWLOLWHQLQDUWPDVÕGDVWUHVVHQGHNVLQL\NVHOWPLúWLU 7UNL\H HNRQRPLVL LoLQ EDQNDFÕOÕN VHNW|U YH ONH NUHGL ULVNOHULQLQ GúN ROPDVÕ ILQDQVDO VWUHVV HQGHNVLQLQ GDKD ID]OD \NVHOPHVLQL HQJHOOHPLúWLU ¶LQ oQF oH\UH÷LQGHQ LWLEDUHQ EDúWD SRUWI|\ \DWÕUÕPODUÕ YH GL÷HU \DWÕUÕPODU ROPDN ]HUH \XUWGÕúÕQGDQ ND\QDNODQDQ VHUPD\H DNÕPÕQGD D]DOPD V|] NRQXVX ROPXúWXU .UHVHO krizin TUNL\H HNRQRPLVLQGH \DNÕQGDQ KLVVHGLOGL÷L ¶LQ VRQ oH\UH÷L LOH ELUOLNWH FDUL LúOHPOHU DoÕ÷ÕQGD GDUDOPDODU EDú J|VWHUPLúWLU 'Õú WDOHELQ D]DOPDVÕQD SDUHOHO RODUDNLWKDODWÕQ YHGÕúILQDQVPDQLPNkQODUÕQÕQGDUDOPDVÕGÕúDoÕNVRUXQXQFLGGLELU VÕNÕQWÕ\D \RO DoPDGDQ \|QHWLOPHVLQL PPNQ NÕOPÕúWÕU %LU GL÷HU GH\LúOH EX JHOLúPH |GHPHOHU GHQJHVLQLQ VUGUOHELOLUOLN \|QQGH ND\GD GH÷HU ELU X\XPX JHUoHNOHúWLUGL÷LQL RUWD\D NR\PDNWDGÕU 45 <DEDQFÕ ILQDQVDO VHUPD\H \DWÕUÕPODUGDNL oÕNÕúODUø0.%-100 ve reel efektif döYL]NXUXQXD]DOWÕFÕ\|QGHHWNLOHPLúWLU7DOHSWH D]DOPDIL\DWODUÕQHQIODV\RQXQYHIDL]OHULQD]DOPDVÕQD\RODoPÕúWÕU.UHVHONUL]LQ KLo NXúNXVX] 7UNL\H HNRQRPLVLQH HQ |QHPOL HWNL NDQDOODUÕQGDQ ELULVL D]DODQ \XUWGÕúÕWDOHEHED÷OÕRODUDNLKUDFDWÕQYHLWKDODWÕQGúPHVLYHEXQDED÷OÕRODUDNGDGÕú WLFDUHWYHFDULLúOHPOHUDoÕ÷ÕQÕQD]DOPDVÕGÕU\ÕOÕQGDNUL]LQHWNLVL\OH*6<ø+¶GD oH\UHN G|QHP ED]ÕQGD ¶H \ÕOOÕN ED]GD LVH \ÕOÕQGD ¶H YDUDQ GDUDOPD J|UOPúWU. Türkiye’deki Finansal Krizleri TahmiQøoLQ3URELW0RGHO$QDOL]L 7UNL\H HNRQRPLVLQGH ILQDQVDO NUL]OHULQ WDQÕPODQPDVÕ YH |QJ|UOPHVLQGH NDQWLWDWLI WHNQLNOHULQ NXOODQÕOPDVÕ XOXVODUDUDVÕ ILQDQVDO NUL] OLWHUDWU SDUDOHOLQGH \D\JÕQODúPDNWDGÕU dDOÕúPDPÕ]GD 7UNL\H HNRQRPLVL LoLQ VRQUDVÕ ILQDQVDO krizleri, probit modHO \DUGÕPÕ\OD |QJ|UVQQ \DSÕOPDVÕ KHGHIOHQPLúWLU %XUDGDQ KDUHNHWOH ILQDQVDO NUL]LQ GR÷UX WDQÕPODQPDVÕ YH ILQDQVDO NUL]LQ |QJ|UOPHVLQH \DUGÕPFÕRODFDNNULWLNHNRQRPLNGH÷LúNHQOHULQEHOLUOHQPHVLPRGHOLQEDúDUÕVÕQGDYH gelecek finansal krizlerin öngörülmesinde büyük önem arz edecektir. Finansal NUL]LQ|QJ|UOPHVLQGHSURELWPRGHONXOODQÕODFDNWÕU6H]JLQ+)XQGDYHg]GDPDU E.Ö. (2008) 46¶QLQ YXUJXODGÕ÷Õ JLEL SURELW YH ORJLW PRGHOOHU GR÷UXVDO RODVÕOÕN PRGHOLQLQED]ÕVDNÕQFDODUÕQHGHQL\OHX\JXODPDGD\D\JÕQRODUDNNXOODQÕOÕU)LQDQVDO NUL]OHULQ |QJ|UOPHVLQGH GH SURELW PRGHOOHULQ EDúDUÕ RUDQÕ \NVHN ROGX÷X LoLQ NXOODQÕPÕGD\D\JÕQGÕU Türkiye ekonomisi için, finansal kriz dönemlerinin WDQÕPODQPDVÕQGD0LVKNLQ¶LQ

(91) 47 asimetrik enformasyon teorisi çerçevesindeki 45. Oktar Türel, “Türkiye’de 1994, 2001 ve 2008-(NRQRPLN.UL]OHULQLQ.DUúÕODúWÕUPDOÕ Analizi” (NRQRPLN<DNODúÕP&LOW6D\Õ, s.40, 2010. 46 'HWD\OÕELOJLLoLQEN]6H]JLQ+)XQGDYH(OLIg]JHg]GDPDU³)LQDQVDO.UL]OHULQ gQJ|UOPHVLQGH3URELW0RGHO<DNODúLPL9H7UNL\H8\JXODPDVL´8OXVODUDUDVL)LQDQV Sempozyumu, http://bsy.marmara.edu.tr/Konferanslar/2008/27.pdf (10.05.2010) 47 Frederic S. Mishkin, (1996), agm. s.17.. 15.