SELÇUK ÜNİVERSİTESİ
THE INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL SCIENCE
THE IMPACT OF REFUGEES ON THE JORDANIAN
ECONOMY
Supervisor Prof. Dr. Ahmet Ay Abdalraheem ALKAED 164226001025 KONYA-2019CONTENTS CONTENTS ... i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS TABELS LIST ... iv ABBREVIATIONS ... vi SUMMARY ... vi INTRODUCTION ... 1
1. ASYLUM AND REFUGES ... 4
2. REASONS OF ASYLUM AND IMMIGRATION ... 9
2.1. Economic reasons: ... 10 2.2. Political reasons: ... 10 2.3. Demographic reasons: ... 11 2.4. Environmental reasons: ... 11 3. ASYLUM TYPES ... 12 3.1. Political asylum : ... 12 3.2. Religious asylum : ... 12 3.3. Humanitarian asylum: ... 12
3.4. Food or economic asylum: ... 13
3.5. Internal migrations: ... 13
3.6. International migrations : ... 13
4.CONCEPTSRELATEDWITHINTERNATIONALMIGRATION ... 14
4.1. The different between migrant and refugee: ... 14
4.2. Pull and push factors of migration ... 14
4.3. Macroeconomics factors: ... 15
4.4. Illegal Migration (human trafficking) ... 16
4.5 Th The refugee and international law e 1951 Convention………15
4.6The refugee and international law………15
5. REFUGES AND UNEMPLOYMENT ... 17
5.2. The relationship between refugees and unemployment ... 18
6. DEMOGRAPHY CHANGES AND ECONOMY ... 22
6.1. Demography Changes And Demography Structure ... 22
6.2. The three scenarios during 2015-2050 ... 26
6.3. Demographic changes consequences ... 28
SECTION 2 ... 31
7. JORDAN ECONOMY ... 31
7.1. Facts About Jordanian Economy ... 31
7.2. Agriculture ... 33
7.3. The Jordan valley ... 34
7.4. The industry ... 35
8. REFUGEES AND ASYLUM IN JORDAN ... 37
8.1. The Palestinians refuges in 1948 ... 37
8.1.1. The impact and the effect of giving the Palestinians a Jordanian citizenship ... 40
8.1.2. Palestinians refugee in 1967 ... 41
8.1.3. Palestinians Refuges In 1990-1991 (Gulf War) ... 44
8.2. Refugees From Iraq ... 45
8.3. Syrians refuges ... 47
8.3.1. Hama massacre ... 47
8.3.2. Syrians Refuges Between 2011-2018 ... 47
8.3.3. The Jordan response plan 2018-2020 ... 50
8.3.3.1. Education ... 51 8.3.3.2. Environment: ... 52 8.3.3.3. Food Security ... 53 8.3.3.4. Health: ... 54 8.3.3.5. Job legality: ... 54 8.3.3.6. Shelter: ... 55
8.3.4. The total financial impact of the sectors in USD from 2018 to 2020 depend on ministry of planning resources : ... 56
9. EXPLOITATION AS A PRESSURE CARD ... 57
9.2. The timing of that economic crisis in the Kingdom of Jordan ... 62
10. Solutions For the Currently Situation ... 64
10.1. Withdraw of Jordanian nationality from the Palestinians in Jordan ... 64
10.2. Solve the problem of Baqa‘a camp ... 68
10.3. Solve the problem of AL-WHDAT camp or Amman new camp. ... 74
10.4. The government should send the Syrians that came after the Syrian crisis in 2011 to Syria, after the decision to open the Jordanian-Syrian border since October 15 2018. ... 76
10.5. Membership and Inclusion of Jordan in the Gulf Cooperation Council ... 78
10.6. Focus on economic, trade and investment cooperation with the Republic of Turkey and Taking advantage of mutual experiences ... 82
Conclutions………86
TABELS LIST
Table 1. Budgets In The host Communities ... 91 Table 2. This JRP Budget ... 92
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Firstly all of any success or a good job in my life that‘s I made that‘s because of my Father and my Mother supports and without them I am nothing in that life.
I would like to thank Prof.Dr Ahmet Ay for his supporting as supervisor as professor as a dean and as a big teacher , The door to Prof. Ahmet Ay office was always open whenever I ran into a trouble spot or had a question .
Also I would like to thank Prof.Dr. Fatih Mangir for his supporting as close friend and teacher at the same time .
When I was in undergraduate period I would like to mention that my prof Dr zoubi alzoubi that I will not and I didn‘t forget his support to make me in that level in economy of business and his support as a teacher and as big brother This thesis has been written during my stay at the Selcuk University at Konya city which known as the capital of Seljuk empire, in the central of Anatolia.
ABBREVIATIONS
HKJ : Hashmi kingdom of Jordan JD : JORDANIAN DINAR
USD : United States of America dollar CBJ : Central bank of Jordan
GCC : Gulf Cooperation Council
JSMO : Jordan Standards and Metrology Organization JEDCO : Jordan Enterprise Development Corporation UN : United Nations
UNHCR : United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees UNGA : United Nations General Assembly
GOVJO : government of Jordan
JIS : Jordan Investment Commission
JRPSC : The Jordan Response Platform for the Syria Crisis GDP : Gross domestic product
ILO : International Labor Organization
FAFO : Fagbevaegelsens Forsknings Organization (Norwegian Institute for Labor and Social Research
TUIK : Turkish Statistical Institute
OIPFG : Organization of Iranian People's Fedai Guerrillas BSO : Black September organization
T. C.
SELÇUK ÜNİVERSİTESİ Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Müdürlüğü
ÖZET
Ürdün‘ün Hashmi ekonomisi Orta Doğu‘daki en düşük oranlardan biri, sınırlı kaynaklarla, ancak, krallığın kurulmasından Ürdün, Arap dünyasının her yerinden, özellikle Filistin, Suriye ve Irak'tan mültecilere ev sahipliği yaptı.
Bu durumun Ürdün‘ün ekonomisini etkileyen birçok etkisi oldu örneğin, Filistin durumunda, ülkenin ekonomisi ve mültecileriyle bir ilişkisi var, ülkenin ekonomisi ve ülke siyaseti her şeyi bakanlıklar tarafından organize eden bir hükümet tarafından yönetiliyor, Bu çalışmanın amacı, Ürdün ekonomisinin mülteci kriziyle karşı karşıya kalacağı zorlukları, Irak, Suriye ve Filistinlilerin cephelerine odaklanan ve Ürdün ekonomisi üzerindeki etkilerini göstermektir. Üstelik, mülteciler arasında birçok ortak nokta bulunmaktadır. Bir ev sahibi toplulukta ve ekonomide bu çalışmanın amacı, Ürdün ekonomisinin mülteci kriziyle karşı karşıya kalacağı zorlukları, Irak, Suriye ve Filistinlilerin cephelerine odaklanan ve Ürdün ekonomisi üzerindeki etkilerini göstermektedir. Üstelik, mülteciler arasında birçok ortak nokta bulunmaktadır.
Mülteciler ve terörizm arasında bir ilişkinin olduğunu kanıtlamak için avantajlar bulmak ve çözümler önermek üzere olayları, türleri ve gerçekleri birbirine bağlayan örnekler vereceğim, terörizmin bir ekonomi, mülteciler ve işsizlik üzerindeki etkisi, mültecilerin üzerindeki demografi etkisi. ve bu demografinin ekonomi üzerinde nasıl bir etkisinin olabileceği.
Dahası, Ürdün'ün ekonomik durumunun sömürülmesiyle Ürdün'ün dış baskısını ve bu durumdaki Ürdün ekonomisine olan etkilerini, özellikle de yüzyılın anlaşmasıyla ilgili son baskılarla, şu andaki yüzyıldaki siyasi olayları ve önceki yıllarda Ürdün ekonomisi ve Ürdün'de bir krallık olarak etkisi oldu.
Ürdün gelecek yıllar için düşünmeli ve geçmişte yapılan hatalara yeni çözümler sunarak, Ürdün‘ün ekonomisinin gelişmesine yardımcı olabilecek ve karşılıklı bir düzenlemede ülkelere destek olabilecek Türkiye, Katar ve GCC ülkelerle vegelecek nesiller ile işbirliği anlamına da gelebilecek.
ANAHTAR KELİMELER: İltica , Uluslararası göç , Işgücü piyasası , Mülteciler
Ö
ğr
enc
inin
Adı Soyadı Abdalraheem ALKAED Numarası 164226001025
Ana Bilim / Bilim
Dalı İKTİSAT/İKTİSAT
Programı Tezli Yüksek Lisans Doktora
Tez Danışmanı Prof. Dr. Ahmet Ay
T. C.
SELÇUK ÜNİVERSİTESİ Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Müdürlüğü
SUMMARY
Jordan‘s Hashmi economy is among the smallest in the Middle East with limited recourses, however since the kingdom had been established, Jordan has hosted refugees from all over the Arab world especially from Palestine, Syria and Iraq. This situation has had many effects that have impacted on Jordan‘s economy, for instance, in the case of Palestine, there is a relationship with the country‘s economy and refugees, the country‘s economy and the country‘s politics is administrated by a government that organizes everything by ministries.
The purpose of this study is to show the challenges that the Jordanian economy may have to face through the refugee crisis, the study focused on the Iraqi, Syria and Palestinians fronts and their impact on the Jordanian economy, moreover, there are many commonalities between refugees in a hosting communities and economy. I will be giving examples showing linking events, sorties and facts to suggest solutions for finding advantages for proving that a relationship between refugees and terrorism exists, that terrorism has an effect on an economy, refugees and their impact on unemployment, the refugees‘ effect on demography and how that demography can have an effect on economy.
Furthermore, I will be outlining the external pressure on Jordan by the exploitation of Jordan‘s economy situation and the effects on Jordan‘s economy in that situation, especially in relation to recent pressures related to the deal of the century ,the political events in the current century and the previous years impact on Jordan‘s economy and in Jordan as a kingdom .
Jordan should be thinking for the future years and generations by making new solutions for the mistakes that have been made in the past which also could mean cooperation with countries like Turkey, Qatar and the GCC that could aid the development of Jordan‘s economy and support countries in a reciprocal arrangement.
Although whatever Jordan does, there will always be those who will criticize the kingdom although this can be seen from the news that I collected and the information I have explained in this thesis.
Key words: Asylum, international Refugees.
Ö
ğr
enc
inin
Adı Soyadı Abdalraheem ALKAED Numarası 164226001025
Ana Bilim / Bilim
Dalı İKTİSAT/İKTİSAT
Programı Tezli Yüksek Lisans Doktora
Tez Danışmanı Prof. Dr. Ahmet Ay
INTRODUCTION
That thesıs is about the economıcs that effects Jordan from the refugee crısises that have occured, these include: the impact of Palestinian immigration ın 1948; the second Palestinian immigration of 1967, the ımmıgration of Lebanese people in 1974; the ımmıgration of Syrians in 1982(Hama massacre); the ımmıgration of Palestınıans from Kuwaıt to Jordan in 1990; the ımmıgration of Iraqis to Jordan 1991; the ımmıgration of Iraqis to Jordan in 2003 and the ımmıgration of Syrians to Jordan in2011 to (until now) .
For Palestinians in Jordan, Palestinians citizenship is a Palestinian refugee residing in Jordan or persons with partial or total Palestinian origin living in Jordan. Most of the Palestinians came to Jordan as refugees between 1947 and 1967. Today, most Palestinians or those of Palestinian origin, have Jordanian nationality, thus making Jordan the only country to have fully integrated the 1948 Palestinian refugees.
All societies face a specific economic problem, which is the problem of how to make the best use of limited, or scarce resources. This economic problem exists because, although the needs and wants of people are endless, the resources available to satisfy their needs and wants are limited.
Jordanian society also includes ethnic minorities, including Circassia‘s, Kurds, Turkomans, Chechens, and Armenians, in terms of religion substantial numbers of the Jordanians are Christians, in fact the second largest religious community, and there is a small Druze community.
This thesis is also about how Jordan has suffered from a refugee policy, the relationship between refugees, and their impact on Jordan‘s economy and the consequences that are related to terrorism, unemployment and demographic changes. The aims and targets of this thesis is to view how the Jordan economy has suffered from refugees and how Jordan has suffered from Palestinian immigration over the years. Furthermore, I aim to show how as well as advising Jordan of the risks and
challenges of economic policies, the ministries in Jordan have dealt with the economy and immigration and some opinions that could solve that problems or even to lessen that impact on the economy which is caused by refugees.
About Jordan as country, officially named the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. It is an Arab country located in south-west Asia. The Middle East is located in the southern part of the Levant and the northern part of the Arabian Peninsula, It has common borders with Syria from the north, historic Palestine (the West Bank and its Zionist occupation states) to the west, Iraq to the east, to the east and south to Saudi Arabia, and to the Gulf of Aqaba in the southwest, Red sea, and ,the only maritime port of Jordan, It is called and named as Jordan in reference to the Jordan River which runs along its in western border, Jordan is a country that combines Arab cultures and dialects in a remarkable manner, habit and traditional. No natural borders are separated from its Arab neighbors except by the Jordan River and the Yarmouk River, which are respectively part of its borders with Palestine and Syria. The rest of the border is an extension of the desert of Sham in the north and east and the desert of influence in the south wadi Araba to the south-west.
The terrain in Jordan varies greatly, the most important mountains are the Ajloun Mountains in the north-west, and mountains in the south. The highest peak of those located on the mountain of the Bloody Mother is 1854 meters, and the lowest point in the Dead Sea, which is considered the lowest point in the world. Prince Abdullah Bin Al Hussein founded the Emirate of Eastern Jordan in 1921, the independence of the kingdom in Jordan was in 1946, the regime in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan is a constitutional royalist one with a representative government, which at the same time, is responsible to the Parliament Council (by elect) and the Senate (appointed by the King), who are the legislative authority of the State. There is also an independent judiciary. Jordan is classified by the World Bank as an "upper-middle income" country 1
1 (Jordan data ,world bank :June 2016).
The economy, which boasts a GDP of $39.453 billion (as of 2016), grew at an average rate of 8% per annum between 2004 and 2008, and around 2.6% 2010 onwards. GDP per capita rose by 351% in the 1970s, declined 30% in the 1980s, and rose 36% in the 1990s—currently $9,406 per capita by purchasing power parity, the Jordanian economy is one of the smallest economies in the region, and the country's populace suffers from relatively high rates of unemployment and poverty. 2
The official currency is the Jordanian dinar, which is pegged to the IMF's special drawing rights (SDRs), equivalent to an exchange rate of 1 US$ ≡ 0.709 dinar, or approximately 1 dinar equal 1.41044 dollars. The proportion of well-educated and skilled workers in Jordan is among the highest in the region in sectors such as ICT and industry, due to a relatively modern educational system. This has attracted large foreign investments to Jordan and has enabled the country to export its workforce to Arabian Gulf countries. Flows of remittances to Jordan grew rapidly, particularly during the end of the 1970s and 1980s, and remains an important source of external funding. Remittances from Jordanian expatriates were $3.8 billion in 2015, a notable rise in the amount of transfers compared to 2014 where remittances reached over $3.66 billion3, listing Jordan as fourth largest recipient in the region. 4
2
(Jordan data ,world bank :June 2016).
3 Jordan, management and international issues in Jordan Routledge .p.88,
slowing Jordan slide into Debt Kirk Sowell. Carnegie 22 march 2018 , the Jordan times
Chapter 1
1. ASYLUM AND REFUGES
Refugees are protected in international law which that is unique about refugees, refugee, is a displaced person who has been forced to cross national boundaries and who cannot return home for many reasons including the refugee safety. A person may not be called an asylum seeker until granted refugee status by the contracting countries or the UNHCR where they can formally make a claim for asylum for being a refugee in that country, the lead international agency coordinating refugee protection is the (UNHCR) United Nations Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. The United Nations have a second Office for refugees, the UNRWA, which is solely responsible for supporting the large majority of Palestinian refugees. 5
In 2018, the United Nations estimated that 85% from 68.5 million worldwide of refugees are hosted in developed countries, with 57% coming from Syria, Afghanistan and South Sudan, and Turkey is the top hosting country of refugees with 3.5 million displaced people within its borders. There is a section of international law on the protection of refugee rights and it is related to international human rights law and international humanitarian law, even if it is different from them, where they deal respectively with human rights in general and the conduct of war in particular.6,7
5
(UNHCR Figures at a Glance, Truth about asylum)
6 Global Trends FORCED DISPLACEMENT IN 2017, Case Postale 2500 1211 Geneva, Switzerland
2018 UNHCR, 25 JUNE 2018.
The modern refugee law states: Refugees are persons who have in their home country or country in which they were living in a period time of serious risk or suffered from extreme fear for many different reasons such as race, religion, nationality, or membership of a particular social group or political opinion, there being serious risks threatening their life and physical safety or freedom, as well as measures that cause unbearable psychological pressure as well as female subjugation, are reasons to be considered.8
Refugee law covers customary law, peremptory principles and international legal instruments, and the only international instrument is the United Nations Treaty with an optional protocol while the various regional bodies have instruments that apply only to Member States. These instruments include 1951 United Nations Convention on the Status of Refugees, 1966 Bangkok Principles on the Status and Treatment of Refugees, 1984 Cartagena Declaration on Refugees of Latin American Countries, 1976 Recommendations of the European Council '773 (1976) on the Real Status of Refugees and 2004 Directives of the Council of the European Union about Minimum standards for qualification and placement third country nationals and stateless persons as refugees or others in need of protection and stateless persons as refugees or others in need of protection Refugees are individuals who outside their country of nationality or habitual residence have a justified fear of being persecuted because of their race, religion, nationality, membership in a particular social group or their political views and are unable or unwilling to benefit from the protection of that country or to return there for fear of persecution.9So every refugee is an immigrant, but every immigrant is not a refugee,Love of one's homeland (country) has a religious perspective.
8 The book of convention and protocol relating the stat us of refugees, Text of the 1951 Convention
Relating to the Status of Refugees.
The issue of asylum in Islam was presented in a book published by UNRW, The Right of Asylum between Islamic Law and International Refugee Law.
I disagreed widely with the book which was published on the United Nations website, which speaks of asylum in Islamic law and the writer started and used (ALANFAL 74 )for accepting asylum in Islam, but (ALANFAL 74) doesn‘t means immigration for asylum (to field out or run away from home because of fears ) its means that those who believe, and emigrated and strove hard in the Cause of Allah (Al-Jihad), as well as those who took them in helped and aided for victory; - these are the believers in truth, for them is forgiveness and Rizqun Karim (a generous provision i.e. Paradise) in the Quran. The meaning of that (Surah ), there was (and), not (or) and so that they who immigrate for jihad or to spread and teach religion ,(ANSAR and Muhajirun) are helpers and the emigrants they did that to spread the religion in that period, not because of the life aims, should not be a refugee. Also in UNHCR in the same Surah (ALANFAL15) it says ― you who have believed, when you meet those who disbelieve advancing [for battle], do not turn to them your backs [in flight].,‖10
Also the Prophet said, "Keep away from the seven fatalities." It was asked: "What are they, O Messenger of Allah?" He replied, "Associating anything with Allah in worship (i.e., committing an act of Shirk),
Sorcery, killing of one whom Allah has declared inviolable without a just cause, devouring the property of an orphan, the eating of usury (Riba), fleeing from the battlefield and accusing chaste believing women, who never even think of anything touching their chastity."
So the Prophet, when he said Keep away from the seven fatalities, and makes the fleeing from the battlefield one of that seven, I couldn‘t agree with that book about asylum as being acceptable in Islam, it does not make a sense, especially in the book that I mentioned.
10 Prof. Ahmed Abou El Wafa , Riyadh, 2009 , Islamic law and international refugee law a
The world is witnessing the highest levels of refuges than ever before, where 86.5 million people were displaced worldwide from their homelands; about 20 million are refugees, more than half of whom are under the age of 18, there are also 10 million stateless persons denied access to citizenship. 11
UNHCR employ 16,765 people; of whom around nearly 90 per cent are based in the field and also work in 138 countries, with personnel based in a mixture of regional and branch offices and sub and field offices. The teams work hard to help the displaced, specializing in a wide range of disciplines, including legal protection, administration, community services, public affairs and health with new annual high of US$ 7.7 billion in 2017, in 2019 budgets and expenditure for programmed activities by region and pillar is USD$8,115,552,505 as total Programmed Activities for all Regions12.
June 20, considered world refugee day, the immigration and asylum had the effect of opening the door for human trafficking. Human trafficking is considered, as defined in article 3 (a) of the Protocol is to Prevent, suppress and Punish trafficking in Persons. This crime occurs in every region of the world, and has increased because of persons who need international protection and move irregularly or in prolonged asylum situations are exposed epically to trafficking, they may not be able to seek assistance from state authorities to escape from that exploitation, many of the refugees have illegally made any escape towards coasts of Europe, some arrived safely, however, many of them died through what is known as death boats or through border crossings on the Balkan route from Turkey to Western Europe. Trafficking in human beings has increased due to new centers and roads being established to strengthen this trade due to the desire for refugees in illegal migration due to their dreams for new life. Although not all victims of trafficking are refugees, the victims‘ conditions under trafficking qualify them for refugee status.
11 (UNHCR: Figures at Glance 2018) 12
Reports the Executive Committee and its Standing Committee at their formal meetings throughout the year, 2019 GLOBAL REQUIREMENTS - PROGRAMMED ACTIVITIES,UNHCR
UNHCR's guidelines on International protection No. 7 specify that refugee definition of the 1951 Convention, applies to victims of trafficking and persons at risk of trafficking13.
(Trafficking in human beings is a serious violation of human rights and therefore a threat to security throughout the OSCE region. Having recognized several years ago that the problem deserves serious attention and action, we have also learned about the complexities of the issue. In light of the need for a concerted, coherent, and coordinated approach, international agencies and national governments have developed and implemented a variety of anti-trafficking measures, increasingly in close co-operation with civil society. This approach is highlighted in the Action Plan to Combat Trafficking in Human Beings adopted by the OSCE participating States in 2003). 14
In 2015, hundreds of thousands of immigrants entered Western Europe across the Balkans, but in March 2016, Slovenia, Serbia, Croatia and Macedonia announced that it would close its borders to migrants, it would not permit the passage of a person who does not have a visa. Since then, several countries in the region have built a border fence, including Hungary, which established a fence along its border with Serbia in mid-2015, Bulgaria also built a fence along its border with Turkey in June 2017.
The European Union's representative for foreign affairs, Federica Mujerini, confirmed the allocation of 1.5 billion euros to Turkey as part of the second package to support Syrian refugees in Turkey. Turkey and the European Union signed on 18 March 2016, Re-acceptance agreement, under which the Union pledged to pay $ 6 billion to Turkey to spend on the needs of Syrian refugees, an indication that Turkey is the most country impacted by the refugee crisis and for being the chief hosting
13 Asylum and Migration Trafficking in Persons Article 3 (a) of the Protocol to Prevent, Suppress and
Punish Trafficking in Persons, a crime that occurs in every region of the world.
14
(Ambassador Christian Stroma Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights Director: 2003 )
country for refugees; Turkey provides protection for over 4 million refugees, according to the source. 15
As well as in Jordan, crimes of human trafficking have emerged after different waves of asylum in The Hashmi Kingdom of Jordan. There is a National Committee against trafficking in humans, which is the responsibility ofMinistry of Justice, the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan has ratified and acceded to numerous international conventions, covenants, instruments and protocols containing provisions and measures relating to the struggle against the exploitation of persons, especially women and children, these international conventions have become part of national laws.16
2. REASONS OF ASYLUM AND IMMIGRATION
People often flee and leaving their country for Preserving Safety, family and Normalcy that‘s including economic, political, demographic and environmental reasons, people have many different reasons for leaving their homeland and not all asylum seekers warrant protection from another government.
The main reason for humanity asylum Human rights violations, such as torture and persecution, or from armed conflict or crisis and violence of another kind and some are no longer feeling safe or perhaps targeted because of who they are and what they do or believe in ,For example because of ethnicity, religion, sexual orientation or political opinions. these migrations, which are often accompanied by hope for a better life, can be fraught with danger and fear. Some people are victims of human trafficking and other forms of exploitation. while the authorities of the new country are arresting some as soon as they arrive. Once they begin to settle down and build a new life, many will face racism, xenophobia and discrimination in their daily lives.
15 Trt arabic and Dailysabah publishes, published at
14.03.2019 on 16:11 istanbul
16
The right of a state to grant asylum is well established in international law also is the right of an individual to seek asylum and component right under the umbrella of the right of asylum is the right of an individual to be granted asylum.
2.1. Economic Reasons
Displacing of their present location into a new location that‘s called Push and Pull Factors basic reason for immigration or asylum for example push factor could be unemployment and pull factor potential for employment , also when a country is suffering from bad economy situation the push factor could be a lack of services and pull factor would be better services provision , displacing from places that have few job opportunities, and they immigrate to places where jobs seem to be available ,because of economic restructuring, job prospects often vary from one country to another and within regions of the same country , in addition to, many of individuals are becoming refugees, forced from their homelands in search of stable food sources for exampleSomalia, Nigeria, and Yemen are facing extreme drought.
2.2. Political Reasons
Political asylum is a protection given to political refugees from arrest by a foreign jurisdiction Many people have been forced to move from their homes because of their race, religion, nationality, membership in a social group, or political opinion also many People may be attracted to democratic countries that encourage individual choice in education, career, and place of residence, the right of political asylum could defined by Is a judicial concept of giving a person who is persecuted because of his or her political views or religious beliefs in his country which may be protected by another sovereign authority or foreign country the opportunity to express his view , the expenses of moving between those nations could be very high and may decrease the NPV of movement ,Moreover, worsening political conditions abroad improving conditions at home can decrease the motivating force to relocate. Huge contrasts in the political conditions between nations may incompletely clarify why individuals do not migrate between them
2.3. Demographic Reasons:
The Socioeconomic characteristics Persecution of a population , such as age, sex, education level, income level, marital status, occupation, religion, birth rate, death rate, average size of a family, average age at marriage and that‘s elements could reason of asylum and immigrations , the characteristics of potential migrants have for quite some time been a focal piece of clarifying who relocates and who does not note that the individuals who move for work purposes can be very unique in relation to the individuals who relocate for family reunification. Additionally, every vagrant stream is extraordinary regarding the statistic attributes, including age, sex, conjugal status, instructive accomplishment, etc. Work transients are regularly youthful, since they will have more opportunity to understand the normal advantages of relocation. Generally, work transients were regularly working-age men, at the same time, progressively, vagrant streams comprise of ladies and families looking for business abroad (and at times joining families as of now in the host nation) Conjugal status is additionally significant, with wedded individuals ordinarily being less inclined to relocate without anyone else and bound to return home sooner.
In fact, there are important differences in the response of recent migrant flows on the basis of gender, country of origin, and skill level. For example, short-term salary fluctuations pull less-educated male immigrants.
Overall, about each investigation of relocation finds a critical job for statistic qualities in clarifying vagrant populaces, the arrangement of attributes that issues most fluctuates altogether after some time and crosswise over explicit vagrant streams.
2.4. Environmental reasons:
Who were forced to flee due to sudden of the natural environment related to at least one of impacts of climate change: sea-level rise, extreme weather events, and drought and water scarcity or Earthquake volcanoes and floods, Ecological factors, for example, exacerbating air quality in the host nation country can debilitate
movement. Then again, enhancements in the personal satisfaction in the nation of the country of origin may likewise decrease the motivating force to migrate.
3. ASYLUM TYPES
3.1. Political Asylum:
Is granted to famous personalities, and leaders who are dissident from their armies or their governments, and political activists, the refugee gets political asylum when they are particularly prosecuted to harm them Such as arrest, torture or execution, like political activators from their homeland because of judgments against them either Like a prison or execution because of their political views, also they could be dissident soldiers from the army of their country and fled abroad for fear of death , they also could be Persons belonging to political parties or religious denominations and they are getting persecuted in their country at same the journalists and writers who are persecuted for their writings, Those who receive political asylum they should be have the right to personal protection .
3.2. Religious Asylum:
Is for a persons to resort to another country because of stress or violence because of his or her religion or non-religious beliefs, also ,Punishment by a religious police through being beaten, confined, or generally hurt or Punishment by a family member whose authority over someone is based on by country in view of someone alleged inability to agree to religious standards, or Extraordinary restrictions on
someone religious freedom imposed by somebody country‘s laws that have a serious impact on his\her individual way of life
3.3. Humanitarian Asylum:
To resort to another state in or out of the country because of wars or ethnic or ethnic conflicts, An individuals can be granted humanitarian asylum if there is a possibility that may suffer some other form of harm upon returning to their home
country,this harm does not have to be on account of one‘s race, religion, national origin, political opinion, For acknowledging this harm, An court will take a gander at factors such as common strife, amazing monetary hardship, What's more whatever available challenges a refuge candidate might face to giving back with as much or their home nation.
3.4. Food or Economic Asylum
Is resorting from one country to another due to environmental disasters that cause famine which is often inapplicable in that century even if there are similar problems.
3.5. Internal Migrations
Is the movement of people from one defined area to another within a country that mean a permanent movement within the same country, for example, the rural-urban migrations : the movement of people from the countryside to the cities in countries where amenities and opportunities are better in urban areas, or it could be also the movement out of cities into the rural areas for a more relaxed lifestyle and less pollution, characterized and is recognized as to its caused and its outcomes, Most relocation research manages causes Movement rates are thought about crosswise over industrialized nations (with Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the USA appeared to have high rates), and different relocation, and various migration patterns are described, especially with respect to age and education.
3.6. International Migrations
When people cross state boundaries and stay in the host state for a length of time for economic, education or better life opportunities in another country that they push them for that is the Poor Medical Care , Few opportunities jobs in their countries, political fear, loss of wealth , Natural disasters ,Bullying and could be the Lower chances of finding courtship while they looking for Chances of getting a job , better living standards, Education , Better Medical Care and better chance of finding courtship
4.CONCEPTSRELATEDWITHINTERNATIONALMIGRATION
4.1. The different between migrant and refugee
There is a crucial legal difference between the two the refugees had moving from their countries because it‘s too dangerous for them to return home because of feared persecution, conflict and violence ,refugees protected under international law usually refugees came from war or chaos of violence , usually refugees fled out from deadly consequences ,Article 14 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights asserts the right of everyone to seek and enjoy asylum and being a refugee in the host country .
Policymakers, international organizations, and media outlets understand and use the word ‗migrant‘ as an umbrella term to cover both migrants and refugees.
Migration is often understood to imply a voluntary process, someone who crosses a border in search of better economic and education opportunities or other reasons, while there is no dangerous or any of that if return of origin home those who leave their countries for reasons like that would not usually be considered refugees under international law, it could be consider refugees forced migrants who have been displaced by human force or environmental force so every refugee could is migrant but not every migrant is a refugee, States deal with migrants under their immigration laws and procedures, but with refugees states deal under refugee protection and asylum rules set out in both national legislation and international law.
4.2. Pull and push factors of migration
People migrate for a many reasons these reasons which may could be under the name of many areas Environmental, Economic, Cultural and Socio-political that reasons also could be push and pull factors.
Pushes factors mean force the person to move willfully, and generally, they are constrained in light of the fact that the individual hazard something on the off chance that they remain. Push components may incorporate clash, dry spell, starvation, or
extraordinary religious movement, poor financial activities and absence of openings for work are additionally other strong push factors for relocation another strong push factors include race and segregating societies, political prejudice and abuse of individuals who question of the state que, Pull factors those elements in the goal nation that pull in the individual or gathering to leave their home those factors are known as spot utility, which is the appeal of a detect that pulls in people, Better money related shots, more businesses, and the assurance of a prevalent life as often as possible move people into new zones, sometimes individuals have contemplations and observations about places that are not by any means right, yet are strong draw factors for that individuals people become increasingly prepared and leave, many look for spots with warm atmosphere, quiet and pleasant territories to spend their retirement after a lifetime of persevering work and save reserves ,Such ideal places are pull factors too.
4.3. Macroeconomics Factors
Other than salary as measured by per capita GDP, numerous other macroeconomic variables way the movement choice.
In like manner, trade rates legitimately influence relative costs abroad and, thus, acquiring power, a solid remote cash, relative to the currency in the country of
origin, will permit the cash earned abroad to repurchase progressively home,
expanding the net advantage to movement.
Then again, solid home money will diminish the estimation of income abroad. Trade rates work through the two wages and settlements in influencing the movement choice.
As referenced above, pay unpredictability driven by business cycles (for example macroeconomic vacillations) or changes in business status can drive transients out of nations of starting point or maneuver them into host nations. High joblessness in a nation of source may go about as a push factor. What's more, vagrants normally move to locales with low joblessness,
On the other hand, in the midst of monetary retreat, high joblessness rates in the host nation stop movement, as apparent in the 2007–2009 worldwide budgetary emergency.
4.4. Illegal Migration (human trafficking)
Migration becomes illegal if individuals don't have the permission of the state or borders they are going into, People sneak into various countries by means of land or sea, and other dealt with get-togethers help people to sneak into various countries to work illegitimately it‘s called (human trafficking), the flow of illegal migrants is often from more unfortunate nations to more extravagant nations , The people involved often are not the poorest in their home countries, They will in general be individuals with a lot of information , ambition and motivation, aspiration and inspiration, which regularly energizes their longing to move for better life. 4.5 The 1951 Convention
Is a milestone of humanity developed in the wake of massive population movements that exceeded even the magnitude of what we see now, at its center, the 1951 Convention encapsulates key philanthropic qualities. It has unmistakably shown its flexibility to changing verifiable conditions, being recognized by courts as a living instrument fit for managing security to displaced people in an evolving domain. The best challenge to displaced person insurance is unquestionably not simply the 1951 Convention, but instead guaranteeing that states agree to it, according to the 1951 Convention definition persecution for reasons of race, religion, nationality, enrollment of a specific social , Armed conflict : which might be established to or
Led along lines about race, ethnicity, Religion, politics, sex or social gathering partitions, also, Violence perpetrated by gangs, traffickers, and other non-State entertainers, against which the State can‘t to protect.
Abuse based on the basis of sexual orientation or gender identity, beside to, Disasters including drought or famine.
4.6 The Refugee and International Law
International refugee law gets from a scope of treaties universal and regional rules of customary international law, general principles of law, and national laws and standards 1951 Convention relating to the Status of Refugees and its 1967 Protocol, the 1969 OAU Convention, the 1984 Cartagena Declaration and the the EU Qualification Directive and other relevant instruments of the EU asylum (acquis communautaire), and the 1966 Bangkok Principles.
5. REFUGES AND UNEMPLOYMENT
5.1. Definition and Situations
Unemployment is a situation described as by a person who does not find work with his permanent residence, or members of the community are able to work and have tried many ways to find a job but have not had a suitable opportunity.
It is widely known that high unemployment rates among young people in the Middle East and North Africa is one of the political problems that ignited the Arab Spring and its political, social and economic revolutions. Youth unemployment is currently between 1 and 25% in Jordan, the highest among all countries in the world.17
Many countries in the world are suffering from unemployment, for example in Turkey, 12.0% is the unemployment rate in 2018, the unemployment rate ın Jordan ıs 18.7% in 2018, also in Lebanon the unemployment rate reached 36%.
17 (The World Bank, 2013)
The Department of Statistics in Jordan shows that 18,7% the unemployment in Jordan in the fourth of quarter of 2018 the unemployment for males had reached 16.9% and for female had reached 25.7% 18
While Turkey‘s population in is about 80 million, Jordan 10 million, Lebanon 6.082 million and those countries which have suffered from unemployment are already those countries that are hosting many Syrian refugees.
5.2. The Relationship Between Refugees and Unemployment
As the begining of a study by the International Labor Organization (ILO) confirmed, the unemployment rate among Jordanians and Jordanians in host communities in Amman, Irbid and Mafraq rose between 30-40% among women and between 10 and 17% in men between 2011 and 2014. The study, carried out in cooperation with the Fafo Institute for Applied International Studies and the Jordanian Department of Statistics, revealed the impact of the influx of Syrian refugees on the Jordanian labor market, that Syrian workers are willing to accept lower wages and worse working conditions than Jordanians,the study added that this "constitutes more pressure on the Jordanian authorities to apply the current labor laws, such as the commitment to the minimum wage, working conditions and safety at work. The study assesses the impact of Syrian refugees on the labor market and helps to understand their professional and career status, it is confirmed that 51% of Syrian male refugees from outside camps and 7% of females participate in the labor market, which poses a serious threat to the future of the labor market The results of the study revealed that Syrian wages are lower, indicating that 15% of Jordanians receive JD 200 (US $ 282) while 44% of Syrian refugees working outside camps receive less than JD 200 per month, Refugees also work longer hours, with 30% working more than 60 hours per week, and 16% working 80 hours or more per week. In light of the large influx of Syrian refugees into the country, a 2015 study revealed staggering employment statistics. About 51 percent of Syrian men residing outside
18
the refugee camps participate in the Jordanian labor force, and the unemployment rate is as high as 57 percent.19
In the wholesale and retail trade in which Jordanians and refugees work, based on the sample from one of the questionnaires, 23% of the Syrian refugees working outside the refugee camps and 18% of the Jordanians.
The main recommendations of the study were to give Syrian refugees work permits in some sectors in accordance with Jordanian legislation. "If this issue is not addressed, unregulated or unregulated work will continue and adversely affect both Jordanians and Syrians," the study said.
In 2015 According to the news 10.3 percent unemployment in September arose in Turkey, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) that calculates that the unemployment rate was unchanged with 10.4 percent after adjusting for seasonal effects, the unemployment rate for a while, the number of unemployed, and the number of unemployed remained around 3 million people. In September, the increase in the number of unemployed people in the industrial, construction and service sectors compared to August was 177,000 while employment increased. The labor force participation rate, which increased with the participation of women in the labor force after the 2008 crisis, is now affecting the Syrian refugees. Since 2005,
when Turk-State accounted for the new series, the labor force participation rate for the first time in 10 years has been 51.6 percent. This historic record prevented the decline of unemployment despite the creation of new jobs.
The integration of Syrian refugees into the economy had increase competition in the labor market. Syrians are required to obtain a work permit, and 10% of the total number of employees it is still possible, even if the conditions do not exceed. In contrast, research according to the results, the Syrian labor force is at a low
19
Svein Erik Stave and Solveig Hillesund, ―Impact of the influx of Syrian refugees on the Jordanian labor market: Findings from the governorates of Amman, Irbid and Magraq,‖ ILO and FAFO, 2015.
(HAZAIMEH, Hani 2013a Around 160,000 Syrians work illegally in Jordan Jordan Times, March 17.)
socioeconomic level and they are turning to work. This situation, the common language problem, the training of a large part low level employment, not being able to prove their educational level (diploma problem) and due to their economic need, in difficult conditions and low wages, it can be explained by their acceptance of work more easily.
Most Syrian, The provinces hosting the immigrants are Kilis (97 percent), Hatay (25 percent), Şanlıurfa, respectively, (20 percent), Gaziantep (17 percent) and Mardin (12 percent). 20These places as have mostly average unemployment above Turkey‘s, in other words, Syrians residing in areas where unemployment is high in Turkey compete with local workers and job seekers in the cheap labor market.
Syrians living in Turkey, competing in the labor market pose a risk to social cohesion.
In Lebanon also, the Syrian refugees‘ influx has impacted negatively on the labor market, the Head of one of the Employment Agencies, told aljoumhouria news that Syrian workers are causing a bomb explosion in the Lebanese labor market, revealing that the unemployment rate in Lebanon today reaches 60 percent among young people aged 23 to 26 years ,In this context, the mayor of Zahle Joseph AL Malouf, explained that Syrian refugees are competing in the labor market that Lebanese commercial companies in Zahle are employing Syrians at the expense of the local population due to cheaper wages.
He said, "The Lebanese employee was replaced by three Syrian employees, the Lebanese salary being equivalent of three Syrian workers‘ salary.‖
We could see that Syrian refuges in Jordan, Turkey or in Lebanon, even in Europe, impacts and effects the labor market by increasing unemployment, also it effect at the opportunities for those who are coming to labor market in near future, and for employments from the local community ,the reasons being that Syrian refugees accept all lower wages and hard working conditions even if its less than the minimum wage on labor market ,and working conditions even if does not match or accepted by labour law,If we analysis that effect of Syrian refuges on the labor market, we can say that the main points are that Syrian refugees accept lowest wages and more hours working, even if it contravenes the labor-law rules. Many Syrian refugees receive financial support from many sources like the UN and other of organizations, so helping refugees. If they work, whatever the lowest wage, it could be suitable for them especially while many Syrian refugees live in sharing housing renting and many financials costs, that what citizens do not receive, from any external or internal agencies.
The debate over the Syrian refugees' opening up of shops and the start of work in the Jordanian market has escalated, with all this competition for Jordanian merchants, beside that the real estate prices have risen and salaries have fallen. It is not possible to count the number of refugees, especially since large numbers do not have any identification papers and do not reside in the camps, and employers prefer to hire a Syrian worker who accepts a lower daily wage.
This impact that has been created by Syrian refuges not only in kingdom of Jordan, but also in the Republic of Turkey and Lebanon.
6. DEMOGRAPHY CHANGES AND ECONOMY
6.1. Demography Changes and Demography Structure
Demography Change the economic period of great growth of the working age population throughout the world is over, and has been replaced by a new period characterized by an increase in the proportion of the population at retirement age. The average age of human beings has increased as well as the age structure of the population significantly due to the new reality. It has a large number of children. At present for every person who is 60 years old, there are about 4 people of working age, falling by 2050,to only two working-age persons.
The countries that have had a real change of demography are the countries that have suffered from war, or the countries that have accepted refugees. Demographic changes due to war like in Iraq, Syria and Palestine produces demographic changes resulting in sectarian or racism goals for one ethnic side, and the production of ideological issues that generally occur in wars or countries in chaos or crisis.
In refugee crisis cases, the demographic changes means that while host country accepts a huge number of refuges, some of the host communities areas could change demographically when the refugee population becomes absorbed by the the citizens or local peoples even sometimes more than them. The Jordanian citizens are an Arab people living in the East Jordan region where the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan was established or what was formerly known as the East of the Jordan River, the official language is Arabic, while English is the second most widely spoken language by Jordanians, the ethnic group in Jordan is Arabs, Chechens, Circassia‘s, Druze, Turkmen and Turks, Assyrians, Armenians, while the religion is 92% Sunni Islam 7% Christian 1%other. 21
21
Jordan is exposed to real economic and security risks, but the biggest challenge is to tamper with the demographic and cultural situation the waves of refugees concentrated from the south of Syria and their concentration in certain areas in the Jordanian north, is a very influential factor in the culture and demography of the region, which may later be factors of total displacement of Jordanian society, One of the partition scenarios presented in the big Middle East project found a real objective in the presence of an emirate stretching from south Damascus to Mafraq under the name of "Horan Emirate", also about the impact of Syrian crisis, Palestinian displacement inside Jordan is another danger to both Palestinians and Jordanians. The end of the Palestinian cause and its liquidation and tampering with the security of the Palestinian camps in Syria with the aim of displacing their people and pushing them to other places, where Jordan may be one of them, will work to blow up the Jordanian demographic reality, which will not be less dangerous than the collapse of economic and security conditions.22,23
Especially while Jordan is already is suffering from the demographic changes which happened in 1948, 1967, and1990 by the Palestinians crisis, a fact that Palestinians constitute a demographic threat and wield an economic strength that is a source of heightened inter-communal tensions24.
The announcement of the results of the census in Jordan cannot be ignored, especially since the figures published have caused widespread uproar, not only because they showed an undeniable demographic "demography" of close to 1.5 million of Syrians, a 10 percent increase in population has had a tremendous impact on Jordan‘s infrastructure draining on scarce resources as well as the labor market25
22
LUCK TAYLOR. 2013c In Jordan, tensions rise between Syrian refugees and host community Washington Post, April 22.
23 Migration Policy Center 2013 Jordan: The Demographic-Economic Framework of Migration, The
Legal Framework of Migration, The Socio-Political Framework of Migration, June.
24
Yithak Reiter, ―The Palestinian-Transjordanian Rift: Economic Might and Political Power in Jordan,‖ The Middle East Journal, Winter 2004, Vol. 58, No.1, p.76, p. 91.
25 Around 600,000 refugees are registered with UNHCR, while the total number is supposed to
account for 800,000 as many of the refugee are not officially registered. Government estimates are even higher (Simone Hüser and Dr. Otmar Oehring, ―The Socio-Economic Implications of Syrian
,but also because the number of Palestinians in Jordan Demographic concern and also above of that number of workers coming from the Arab Republic of Egypt, the official figures of Jordan respond politically to the claims of resettlement and alternative homeland, which has long been used against the tracks of political reform. The same numbers raise the question of the Syrian demographic bloc, which is considered today by the international community and considers Palestinian refugees to be an essential part of the "Jordanians", which the authorities did not say before directly in the past, after the Kingdom of Jordan granted Jordanian nationality to the residents of the West Bank and Palestinians, in accordance with the Nationality Law of 1954, Palestinians gained Jordanian citizenships. They have become equal in rights and duties with Jordanians, so they became a part of politic apart of society and a part of the economy and because original Jordanians were not supported by any organizations or countries at that time, Palestinians were supported by many organizations like UNHCR including others organizations. Furthermore, many of Palestinians sold houses, lands (by force or not) to the Israeli Jews at very high prices comparative with their prices in the past years, so in that way they could undertake many projects and business in Jordan. This situation gave them a huge controlling power in the economy of Jordan that led to a change the labor demography in Jordan, that we can at present where Palestinians run the private sectors, commerce and trade sectors, that in the process the east Jordanians to think about governmental, army and security agencies as a first choice for a job. This resulted in the economy being controlled by Jordanians with Palestinian roots. There‘s are no realistic numbers or ratios for the Jordanians of Palestinians roots but most of studies say 40%-45% of the Jordan population are in this position. We can see here a big change in Jordan‘s demography, a position that started in 1948. This means that original Jordanians do not get a big chance to have a job or make a business in the private sector because many Jordanian from Palestinian roots prefer to employment their relatives or people from same roots, whereas public and governmental sectors are open for all Jordanian citizens, meaning that Jordanian with Palestinian roots have the choices in all sectors in Jordan, while original Jordanians have limited choices.
Refugees on the Jordanian Economy – A Cost-Benefit Framework‖, Event Contributions Summary from the workshop 18.02.14.
The private economic sector of Jordan‘s economy has the majority of the 500 largest companies that were listed in The 500 Top Jordanian Companies for 1995 being privately owned; classification of the private companies by their owners‘ ethnic origin shows that 60% of them were owned by Palestinians and that they accounted for 54% of the sales turnover and 63% of the value of the assets of all the companies surveyed. The Palestinian companies were especially dominant in banking, commerce and industry26
That means Jordanians of Palestinian origin, control the private sector, so when a large part from the economy became controlled by an ethnic group that came as refugees, then a demographic change would be a threat for the economic status of the country, when they or any external body or organization uses this point for political goals, especially when we understand the strength of relationship between politics and economy.
In my opinion the demographic change that led to the establishment of an economic power, above the external support for Jordanians from Palestinians roots, that we explained in the relationship between refugees and terrorism in the previous chapter, that is why the demographic changes is one of the biggest reasons for the 1970 civil war which was started by Fatah organization BSO (Black September Organization) for trying to occupy and takeover power in Jordan and make it an alternative for Palestinians, but as we know they failed in that case even when they got that international support. The refuge crisis led to the changed in demography by increasing the population, while Housing Statistics in 1952 was 586.2 and in 2018 became 10309.0, as we could see the Population of the Kingdom by Urban and Rural at End-year 2018 ın the next page that shows the populations ın all Jordanian governorate 27.
26 Tianshe Chen, paragraph B. Impacts on Arab countries, Palestinian Refugees in Arab Countries and
Their Impacts page 54, Journal of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies (in Asia) Vol.3, No. 3, 2009
27 Department of statistics on dosweb.dos.gov.jo/population, Housing Statistics, 1952. department of
6.2. The Three Scenarios During 2015-2050
The Department of Statistics in Jordan had Estimates of Non-Jordanian Population Living in the Kingdom by the Three Scenarios during 2015-2050.
High-basic scenario continuation of the current situation Medium scenario
Low scenario
That three scenarios were for the estimations nationalities firstly for Syrian nationality, secondly for Palestinian, Iraqi, Yemeni and Libyan nationalities and finally for Egyptian and other nationalities. The extract of results of those scenarios that indicate population or growth rate for non-Jordanian nationality as refuges or immigrant will be increase or fixed and off-chance departure from the kingdom. However, the Syrians make up more than half the number of expatriates in Jordan, close to 14% of the population. 28
Jordan as an Asian country ranks 92th among the world's countries in terms of population as the Department of Statistics states, although the demographic transition has many effects, economic growth being among the most important of all these implications.
Economic growth among Asian countries based on demographic changes that have occurred and that are projected to occur. 29
The next table shows all of the three scenarios
28
(Aljazeera : 2014/4/22)
Estimation elements High-basic (continuation of the current situation) Med Low Syrian nationality • Population growth rate of Syrians is 2.9% during the projection period 2015-2050 (the situation remains unchanged). • Assuming a voluntary return of Syrians in regular numbers to reach their number before the asylum (assuming return of Syrian refugees after 17 years) so their number by end of the projection period reaches half of what they were in 2015.)
• Assuming return of about quarter of Syrians during 2015-2030 and return of the third during 2015-2030- 2050.
Palestinian,Iraqi ,Yemeni and Libyan nationalities • Stability of the population growth rate of Palestinians, Iraqis, Yemenis and Libyans at 2.2% during 2015-2025 and then decreases to 2.1% during 2025-2030 and another decrease to 1.9% during 2030-2050. • Stability of the population growth rate of Palestinians, Iraqis, Yemenis and Libyans at 2.0% during 2015-2025 and then decreases to 1.6% during 2025- 2030 and another decrease to 1.2% during 2030-2050.
• Stability of the population growth rate of Palestinians, Iraqis, Yemenis and Libyans at 1.9% during 2015-2025 and then decreases to 1.4% during 2025- 2030 and another decrease to 1.0% during 2030-2050.
Egyptian and other nationalities
• Stability of Egyptian nationality holders and other nationalities during 2015- 2050.
• Gradual decrease in number of Egyptian nationality holders in 2015 to reach half by 2050 and stability of other nationalities during 2015-2050.
Population Projections for the Kingdom’s Residents during the Period 2015-2050 Department of Statistics
6.3. Demographic Changes Consequences
Demographıc changes could also lead to demographic explosions or population inflation and that is the huge increase in the population, which causes imbalance in the system and the balance of population, between the needs and requirements of these populations of the economic and natural resources available in their country.
And that demgrapghıc expolosıon refers to a decrease in the number of deaths due to improved medical services,
Besides the increase in the number of immigrants to a particular area, which leads to increased population density in this area or a shortage of resources.
Several measures are being taken in an effort to reduce or stop the dangers of population explosion. 30
At the international level, since 1974, and every ten years, the United Nations has convened a World Population Conference where the causes and consequences of the problem are discussed. At the regional level, some countries have laid some foundations for taxation as a way of restricting population numbers.31
In addition to that Charles Godchart and Philip Erfurt say in their latest reports on the VoxEU website of the European Center for Economic Policy Studies (EESES), there is a close correlation between the global population situation, economic growth and economic indicators. As the report shows in the next 20 or 30 years, the situation will change more than we expect.
30
(World Population Prospects: 2006)
31 (Korotayev A., Khaltourina Introduction to Social Macrodynamics:Secular Cycles and Millennial
A study showed by Organization and Divisions of the RAND Corporation shows that the unprecedented participation of the population of the region in the current period is the phenomenon of early working age for the timing of "demographic inflation", the unemployment crisis among young people threatens the region for years to come in the absence of a fair policy. This indicates that the number of fears that led to the Arab Spring will not be resolved in the short term, and in fact may increase its dangerously, because of that the development of a more productive economic life for young people in the region is being challenged by slow economic growth and rigid policies towards the labor market which that led to low employment in the private sector then the simple calculations of demographic inflation lead to an increase a number of entrants to the labor market yearly32.
Population structures, population movement and human resources, all of them are a part of demography, at same time all that elements impact on the economy including Social Morphology.
So we could say that demographic inflation, unemployment and immigration crisis is the keyword that includes the economic exclusion that results to social exclusion leading to demographic exclusion.
Last year‘s increase in the rate of growth is due to the high rates of migration and asylum in the Kingdom due to the ongoing tensions in the neighboring countries (Iraq and Syria). The average population growth rate for Jordanians was 3.1%, compared with 18% for non-Jordanians.
While Jordan is already accepting unrealistic countable numbers from Palestinians, and giving those Palestinians citizenships, as I have said before title that Jordanians of Palestinian origin control the private sectors and they have tended to discriminate against people of Jordanian origin in employment in the private companies, Institutions and commerce organizations, so the demographic changed, even the worth or price of Jordanians lands, stores and house holdings has made a
32 RAND, (Andrew Ryan, Louay Constant .Audra K. Grant. Peter Glick) )
big gap between Jordanians and the economic sector of trade, commerce and the development of the east bank Jordanians (original Jordanian roots) private sector.
Even while Jordanian citizens of Palestinian origin in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan have all the rights of citizenship and all their duties, they are Jordanians if they want something from the state and government of the kingdom of Jordan, but they are Palestinians when they want the sympathy and support of countries abroad, or when they become involved in a powerful economic situation, or when they garner in international fame etc.
