Türkiye'deki Bütçe Açıklarının Dış Ticaret Açıklarına Etkileri, Ekonometrik Bir Yaklaşım: (1984) (4)-2000 (2)
Tam metin
(2) !#"$ &%'$ (*)!) !+-,.0/ 7h5.ø<(¶'(%h7d($d,./$5,1,1',ù7ø&$5(7$d,./$5,1$ (7.ø/(5ø(.2120(75ø.%ø5<$./$ù,0
(3)
(4) $]L].87/$5 1 2 3 0XDPPHUùø0ù(. 1 242 3 . . g=(7. %X oDOÕúPDGD 7UNL\H¶GH GÕú WLFDUHW UHMLPLQLQ GH÷LúWLULOGL÷L VRQUDVÕ G|QHPGH EWoH DoÕNODUÕ LOH GÕú WLFDUHW DoÕNODUÕ DUDVÕQGDNL LOLúNL .H\QH]\HQ YH 5LFDUGRFX\DNODúÕPODUEDNÕPÕQGDQGH÷HUOHQGLULOL\RU. $PSLULN DQDOL]LQ VRQXoODUÕ EWoH DoÕNODUÕ LOH GÕú WLFDUHW DoÕNODUÕ DUDVÕQGD JoOELUQHGHQVHOOLNLOLúNLVLQLQEXOXQGX÷XQXJ|VWHUPHNWHGLU$\UÕFDNRHQWHJUDV\RQ DQDOL]LQGH EX LNL GH÷LúNHQ DUDVÕQGD ELU X]XQ G|QHP LOLúNLVLQLQ YDUOÕ÷Õ GD GR÷UXODQPÕúWÕU %XQD J|UH 7UNL\H¶GHNL EWoH DoÕNODUÕ\OD GÕú WLFDUHW DoÕNODUÕ DUDVÕQGDNL LOLúNL\L WHVW HGHQ (&0 \DNODúÕPÕ NÕVD YH X]XQ G|QHPGH .H\QH]\HQ \DNODúÕPÕGHVWHNOHPHNWHGLU $QDKWDU NHOLPHOHU%WoHYH 'Õú7LFDUHW$oÕ÷ÕøNL]$oÕN 1HGHQVHOOLNYH+DWD ']HOWPH<DNODúÕPÕ.RHQWHJUDV\RQ *LULú. %WoH DoÕNODUÕQÕQ HNRQRPL ]HULQGHNL HWNLOHULQH LOLúNLQ HNRQRPHWULN oDOÕúPDODUÕQ VRQXoODUÕ KHQ] JHQLú oDSWD NDEXO J|UPú GH÷LOGLU %X WU oDOÕúPDODU .H\QH]\HQ \DNODúÕPOD 5LFDUGR¶QXQ GHQNOLN KLSRWH]LQH GD\DQPDNWDGÕU %X WDUWÕúPD\OD LOJLOL ELU NRQX GD EWoH YH GÕú WLFDUHW DoÕNODUÕ DUDVÕQGDNLLOLúNLGLU$QFDN DPSLULNoDOÕúPDODUÕQoR÷XQOX÷X$%'HNRQRPLVL\OH LOJLOLGLU %X QHGHQOH JHOLúHQ HNRQRPLOHULQ YHULOHULQL DQDOL] HGHQ GDKD oRN DPSLULN oDOÕúPD \DSÕOPDVÕQD LKWL\Do EXOXQPDNWDGÕU dQN ELU WHRULQLQ JHoHUOLOL÷L YH\D NDEXO HGLOHELOLUOL÷L R WHRULQLQ IDUNOÕ ER\XW YH \DSÕODUGDNL HNRQRPLOHUGHDPSLULNRODUDNWHVWHGLOPHVL\OHDQODPOÕOÕNND]DQPDNWDGÕU. %WoH DoÕNODUÕ YH GÕú WLFDUHW DoÕNODUÕ DUDVÕQGDNL LOLúNLOHUL DUDúWÕUDQ DPSLULN oDOÕúPDODUÕQ VRQXoODUÕ ELUELUOHULQGHQ IDUNOÕGÕU 0LOOHU YH 5XVVHN
(5) (QGHUVYH/HH
(6) YH.LP
(7) WDUDIÕQGDQ \DSÕODQDPSLULNoDOÕúPDODUEWoHDoÕNODUÕQÕQGÕúWLFDUHWDoÕNODUÕQÕHWNLOHPHGL÷LQL LOHUL VUHQ 5LFDUGR¶QXQ GHQNOLN KLSRWH]LQL GHVWHNOHPHNWHGLU %XQD NDUúÕOÕN +XWFKLVRQ YH 3LJRWW
(8) $VFKDXHU
(9) 'DUUDW
(10) $EHOO
(11) =LHW]YH3HPEHUWRQ
(12) %DKPDQL2VNRRHH
(13) YH 9DPYRXNDV
(14) JLEL oRN VD\ÕGD LNWLVDWoÕQÕQ oDOÕúPDVÕ GD EWoH DoÕNODUÕQÕQ GÕú WLFDUHW DoÕNODUÕQD \RO DoWÕ÷ÕQÕ EHOLUWHQ.H\QH]\HQJ|UúGHVWHNOHPHNWHGLU 5 6 708:9;0< 8>= < ?!@A!BC0A!=+D EGF H'I>JGD KGF =+L+D H FL+DM4< M+< N:< OP< ?GQ!M R>STQ. 5 6 6 708U9;0< 8>= < ?@A0BC!A!=4D EGF HGIUJGD KGF =#L+D H FL#D'@A!BVC!A!=4D EF H*WX< Y< Z[< ?GQ!MR\STQ. . .
(15) ]_^ ^
(16) `:a ! , b. a cUcU _d* c\e f. %X oDOÕúPDQÕQ DPDFÕ 7UNL\H HNRQRPLVLQH LOLúNLQ o D\OÕN YHULOHUL NXOODQDUDN LNL GH÷LúNHQOL EWoH YH GÕú WLFDUHW DoÕ÷Õ PRGHOOHU oHUoHYHVLQGH NRHQWHJUDV\RQ DQDOL] KDWD G]HOWPH PRGHOL (&0
(17) YH JHQHOGHQ |]HOH GR÷UX WHNQLNOHUHGD\DOÕRODUDNEWoHDoÕNODUÕ\ODGÕúWLFDUHWDoÕNODUÕDUDVÕQGDNLQHGHQYH HWNL LOLúNLVLQL DUDúWÕUPDNWÕU %X LNL GH÷LúNHQOL PRGHOH JHOLU GH HNOHQHUHN o GH÷LúNHQOL ELU PRGHO ROXúWXUXODELOLU 1LWHNLP 9DPYRXNDV
(18) oDOÕúPDVÕQGD JHOLULQ o GH÷LúNHQOH LOLúNLVLQL HOH DOPÕúWÕU $QFDN 7UNL\H LoLQ NXOODQÕODQ YHULOHUGH *60+¶D DLW o D\OÕN YHULOHULQ \HWHUVL] ROPDVÕ E|\OH ELU PRGHOLQROXúWXUXOPDVÕQÕ HQJHOOHPHNWHGLUdDOÕúPDGD D\UÕFD *60+QÕQ'g YH %g LOHELUQHGHQVHOOLNLOLúNLVLQLQROXSROPDGÕ÷Õ*UDQJHUWHVWLLOHDUDúWÕUÕODFDNWÕU. %XoDOÕúPDQÕQSODQÕú|\OHKD]ÕUODQPÕúWÕUøONNÕVÕPGDEWoHDoÕNODUÕLOH GÕú WLFDUHW DoÕNODUÕQÕQ WHRULN WHPHOOHUL NÕVDFD J|VWHULOPHNWHGLU øNLQFL NÕVÕPGD PHWRGRORML\H LOLúNLQ NRQXODU GH÷HUOHQGLULOPHNWHGLU 6RQ NÕVÕPGD DPSLULN EXOJXODUEXQODUDLOLúNLQGH÷HUOHQGLUPHOHUYHVRQXo\HUDOPDNWDGÕU 7HRULNdHUoHYH. %X NÕVÕPGD EWoH DoÕNODUÕ LOH GÕú WLFDUHW DoÕNODUÕ DUDVÕQGDNL LOLúNLQLQ WHPHOLQL ROXúWXUDQ NRQXODU NÕVDFD HOH DOÕQPDNWDGÕU %LOLQGL÷L JLEL GÕúD DoÕN ELU HNRQRPLGHXOXVDOJHOLU|]GHúOL÷L. < &,* ;±0
(19) GLU
(20) . %X HúLWOLNWH < *60+ \Õ & WNHWLPL , \DWÕUÕPODUÕ * NDPX KDUFDPDODUÕQÕ;LKUDFDWÕYH0LWKDODWÕJ|VWHUPHNWHGLU&DULKHVDS &+
(21) LKUDFDW YHLWKDODWDUDVÕQGDNLIDUNRODUDNHOHDOÕQÕUVD
(22) QXPDUDOÕHúLWOLN. &+ ;0
(23) <± &,*
(24) ROXU
(25) . %LU ONHQLQ \HUOHúLNOHULQLQ \DSPÕú ROGX÷X WRSODP KDUFDPDODU WRSODP WNHWLPYH\DHPPHRODUDNLVLPOHQGLULOPHNWHGLU .DSDOÕELUHNRQRPLGHXOXVDOWDVDUUXIODU 6
(26) \DWÕUÕPODUD ,
(27) HúLWWLUYH 6 <±&GLU'ROD\ÕVÕ\OD. 6 ,&+ROXU
(28) 8OXVODUDUDVÕHNRQRPLNRUWDPGDELUONHQLQFDULKHVDSID]ODVÕHNVHUL\D RONHQLQQHW\DEDQFÕ\DWÕUÕPÕRODUDNJ|VWHULOPHNWHGLU
(29) QXPDUDOÕHúLWOLNGÕúD NDSDOÕELUHNRQRPLQLQDNVLQHGÕúDDoÕNELUHNRQRPLQLQNHQGLJHOLULQLDUWÕUPDN LoLQ Lo YH GÕú \DEDQFÕ
(30) \DWÕUÕPODUÕ NXOODQGÕ÷ÕQÕ LIDGH HWPHNWHGLU 8OXVDO WDVDUUXIODU|]HOYHNDPXWDVDUUXIODUÕRODUDNVÕQÕIODQGÕUÕOÕUVD 6h <±7±&YH
(31) . 6i 7±*ROXU
(32) . .
(33) \j! k\l_m$ eUn' o 0 ] k0$ f0 !$. . <XNDUÕGDNL HúLWOLNOHUGH 7 KNPHWLQ KDQH KDONÕ YH ILUPDODUGDQ DOGÕ÷Õ GR÷UXGDQYHUJLOHUL6h |]HONHVLPWDVDUUXIODUÕQÕ6i GHNDPXNHVLPLWDVDUUXIODUÕQÕ J|VWHUPHNWHGLU%XUDGDQ 6h. ,&+ *±7
(34) \D]ÕODELOLU
(35) . %XUDGD *±7
(36) EWoHDoÕNODUÕQÕJ|VWHUPHNWHGLU
(37) QXPDUDOÕHúLWOLN. &+ 6h ±,± *±7
(38) úHNOLQGH\D]ÕODELOLU
(39)
(40) QXPDUDOÕHúLWOLNGÕúWLFDUHWGHQJHVL\DQLFDULKHVDSLOHEWoHDoÕNODUÕ DUDVÕQGDNLED÷ODQWÕ\ÕDUDúWÕUPDNLoLQELUoHUoHYHVD÷ODPDNWDGÕU%XQDJ|UHEWoH DoÕNODUÕQGDNLELUDUWÕúFDULKHVDSDoÕ÷ÕQÕDUWÕUDFDNWÕU(÷HUFDULYHUJLOHPHQLQYH 6h ,
(41) QÕQ VDELW ROGX÷XQX \DQL GH÷LúPHGL÷LQL YDUVD\DUVDN NDPX KDUFDPDODUÕQGDNL JHoLFL ELU DUWÕú EWoH DoÕ÷ÕQÕ * ± 7
(42) \NVHOWHFHN YH R GD WRSODP XOXVDO WDVDUUXIODUÕ D]DOWDUDN FDUL KHVDEÕ HWNLOH\HFHNWLU %X \ROOD NDPX KDUFDPDODUÕ DUWÕúÕQGDQ ND\QDNODQDQ ELU EWoH DoÕ÷ÕQÕQ ONHQLQ FDUL KHVDS ID]ODOÕ÷ÕQÕD]DOWDFD÷ÕYH\DPHYFXWRODQFDULKHVDSDoÕ÷ÕQÕDUWÕUDFD÷ÕV|\OHQHELOLU %XQXQODELUOLNWHGÕúWLFDUHWDoÕNODUÕQÕQDUWÕúÕQGDDUWDQEWoHDoÕNODUÕQÕQ oDUSDQHWNLVLEXLNLDoÕNROJXVXQXQELUJ|UQPRODELOLU'L÷HUELUJ|UQP LVHEWoHDoÕNODUÕQÕQIDL]RUDQODUÕ]HULQGHNLSR]LWLIHWNLVLRODELOLU)DL]RUDQODUÕ \NVHOGLNoHGÕúDUÕGDQGDKDID]OD\DWÕUÕPoHNHUYHXOXVDOSDUDGH÷HUOHQLU8OXVDO SDUDQÕQ GH÷HUOHQPHVL LWKDODWÕQ XFX]ODPDVÕ EXQD NDUúÕOÕN LKUDo UQOHULQLQ SDKDODQPDVÕ DQODPÕQD JHOLU %|\OHFH LKUDFDW D]DOÕUNHQ LWKDODW DUWDU EX GD GÕú WLFDUHWDoÕNODUÕQÕDUWÕUÕU. .H\QH]\HQ \DNODúÕPÕ GHVWHNOH\HQOHU NDPX KDUFDPDODUÕQGDNL DUWÕúWDQ ND\QDNODQDQELUEWoHDoÕ÷ÕQÕQGÕúWLFDUHWGHQJHVLQLYHFDULKHVDEÕHWNLOHGL÷LQL NDEXO HWPHVLQH UD÷PHQ 5LFDUGR¶QXQ GHQNOLN KLSRWH]LQL GHVWHNOH\HQ ED]Õ LNWLVDWoÕODU GD YHUJLOHUGHNL D]DOPDGDQ ND\QDNODQDQ ELU EWoH DoÕ÷ÕQÕQ GÕú WLFDUHWGHQJHVLQLYHFDULKHVDEÕHWNLOHPH\HFH÷LQLLOHULVUPHNWHGLU. .DPX KDUFDPDODUÕQÕQ VDELW WXWXOGX÷X YH ERUoODQPDGD KHUKDQJL ELU NÕVÕWODPDQÕQ ROPDGÕ÷Õ GXUXPGD FDUL YHUJLOHPHGHNL ELU D]DOPDQÕQ DU]XODQDQ XOXVDO WDVDUUXI G]H\LQL HWNLOHPH\HFHNWLU dQN úLPGLNL ELU YHUJL NHVLQWLVLQLQ JHOHFHNWH ELU YHUJL DUWÕúÕQD G|QúHFHNWLU %X QHGHQOH EWoH DoÕ÷ÕQÕQ VRQXoWD HNRQRPL ]HULQGH KHUKDQJL ELU HWNLVL ROPD\DFDNWÕU 5LFDUGR¶QXQ GHQNOLN KLSRWH]L NDPX NHVLPLQGHNL JHOLUL DúDQ KDUFDPDODUÕQ |]HO NHVLPLQ WDVDUUXIODUÕQGDNL ELU DUWÕúD GHQN ROGX÷XQX EX \ROOD NDPX WDVDUUXIODUÕQÕQ GÕú WLFDUHW GHQJH G]H\LQL FDUL KHVDEÕ
(43) IDL] RUDQODUÕQÕ SDUD WDOHELQL |]HO WNHWLP KDUFDPDODUÕQÕ\DWÕUÕPODUÕYHXOXVDOWDVDUUXIODUÕHWNLOHPHGL÷LQLLOHULVUPHNWHGLU p . q .H\QH]\HQ\DNODúÕPYH5LFDUGR¶QXQGHQNOLNKLSRWH]LLoLQEN]6HDWHU
(44) . .
(45) ]_^ ^
(46) `:a ! , b. a cUcU _d* c\e f. <|QWHP. %X oDOÕúPDGD 7UNL\H LoLQ
(47) ±
(48) G|QHPLQGHNL EWoH DoÕNODUÕ LOH GÕú WLFDUHW DoÕNODUÕQD LOLúNLQ oHU D\OÕN YHULOHU NXOODQÕOPDNWDGÕU .XOODQÕODQ YHULOHUGHQ %g EWoH DoÕ÷ÕQD LOLúNLQ PHYVLPOLN YHULOHULQ ORJDULWPLN GH÷HUOHULQL 'g GH GÕú WLFDUHW GHQJHVLQLQ PHYVLPOLN YHULOHULQLQ ORJDULWPLN GH÷HUOHULQL J|VWHUPHNWHGLU %|\OHFH EX oDOÕúPDGD NXOODQÕODQ VHULOHU PHYVLPOLN HWNLOHUGHQDUÕQGÕUÕOPÕúWÕU. .RHQWHJUDV\RQ D\QÕ VHULQLQ ELUOHúWLULOPLú GXUD÷DQ ROPD\DQ GH÷LúNHQOHULDUDVÕQGDNLGHQJH\LWHVWHWPHNLoLQ\DSÕOPDNWDGÕU'XUD÷DQROPD\DQ QRQ VWDWLRQDU\
(49) ELU GH÷LúNHQL GXUD÷DQ KDOH JHWLUPHN LoLQ VHULQLQ LON IDUNÕ IDUNÕ
(50) DOÕQÕUYHELULQFLPHUWHEHGHQHQWHJUHVHUL,
(51) GHQLU. (QJOH YH *UDQJHU
(52) NRHQWHJUH GH÷LúNHQOHUGHQ ELU KDWD G]HOWPH PRGHOLQLQ (&0
(53) ROXúWXUXODELOHFH÷LQL EHOLUWPHNWHGLUOHU .RHQWHJUDV\RQ DQDOL]LQLQ SRSOHU ROPDVÕQÕQ WHPHO QHGHQL HNRQRPLN GH÷LúNHQOHUDUDVÕQGDNLNÕVDYHX]XQ G|QHPLOLúNLOHULQLQWHVWLQGHYHWDKPLQLQGH úHNLOVHO ELU ]HPLQ VD÷ODPDVÕGÕU hVWHOLN KDWD G]HOWPH \|QWHPL \DSD\ NRUHODV\RQSUREOHPLQHGHo|]PJHWLUPHNWHGLU. .RHQWHJUH GH÷LúNHQOHULQ J|]H oDUSDQ ELU SUHQVLEL RQXQ ]DPDQOD X]XQ G|QHP GHQJHVLQGHNL VDSPDGDQ ELU GHUHFH HWNLOHQPHVLGLU 6RQXoWD WHNUDU D\QÕ X]XQ G|QHP GHQJHVLQH XODúÕOÕ\RUVD GH÷LúNHQOHUGHQ HQ D] ED]ÕODUÕQÕQ EXQX NDUúÕOD\DFDN GXUXPGD ROPDVÕ JHUHNLU 0RGHOLQ WDP GLQDPLN VSHVLILNDV\RQX EXOXQPDGDQ LKWLPDOOHULQ KDQJLVLQLQ RODELOHFH÷LQL NHVWLUPHN PPNQ GH÷LOGLU 7DUWÕúÕODQEXPRGHOOHUGHQELULKDWDG]HOWPH HUURUFRUUHFWLRQ
(54) PRGHOLGLU+DWD G]HOWPH PRGHOLQGH VLVWHPGHNL GH÷LúNHQOHULQ NÕVD G|QHP GLQDPLNOHUL GHQJHGHNLVDSPDWDUDIÕQGDQHWNLOHQLUOHU.XOODQÕODQKHULNLGH÷LúNHQ %g YH'g
(55) ,
(56) úHNOLQGHLVHWUHQGLQROPDGÕ÷ÕIDNDWNRHQWHJUDV\RQGHQNOHPLQLQELUVDELWH LKWLYDHWWL÷LEDVLWELUKDWDG]HOWPHPRGHOLDúD÷ÕGDNLúHNLOGHLIDGHHGHELOLU. '%g Pr Dr 'g s PE%g s
(57) Ht#g
(58) p p ''g Pu Du 'g s PE%g s
(59) Hv4g
(60) . p. p. <XNDUÕGDNL HúLWOLNOHUGH \HU DODQ %g EWoH DoÕNODUÕQÕ 'g GH GÕú WLFDUHW DoÕNODUÕQÕJ|VWHUPHNWHGLUD YHE SR]LWLISDUDPHWUHOHUGLUHt#g YHHv4g ZKLWHQRLVH ER]XFXWHULPOHULGLUNHQGLDUDODUÕQGDNRUHODV\RQLOLúNLVLLoLQGHRODELOLUOHU(÷HU 'g s P E %g s !LVHGHQJHGXUXPX\RNWXU%XGXUXPGDNÕVDG|QHPIDL]OHUL p p \NVHOHFHNX]XQG|QHP IDL]OHULLVHGúHFHNWLU8]XQG|QHPGHQJHVL'g s E p %g s P GXUXPXQGDVD÷ODQPDNWDGÕU p %XUDGDKDWDG]HOWHQPRGHOLOHNRHQWHJUHRODQGH÷LúNHQOHUDUDVÕQGDELU LOLúNL EXOXQPDNWDGÕU gUQH÷LQ H÷HU '%g GXUD÷DQ LVH \XNDUÕGDNL GHQNOHPLQ VRO WDUDIÕ ,
(61) GÕU $\QÕ úHNLOGH GHQNOHPLQ VD÷ WDUDIÕ GD ,
(62) ROPDOÕGÕU (÷HU Ht#g GXUD÷DQRODUDNNDEXOHGLOLUVH'g s P E %g s GH÷HULGHGXUD÷DQROPDOÕGÕUKHU. p. . p. .
(63) \j! k\l_m$ eUn' o 0 ] k0$ f0 !$. . LNLGH÷LúNHQLEWQVHOOHúWLUHQYHNW|U E
(64) WDUDIÕQGDQEWQVHOOHúWLULOPHOLGLU 7HPHOHVSULKDWDG]HOWPHPRGHOLQLQ&,
(65) PHUWHEHVLQGHEWQVHOOHúPLúLNL GH÷LúNHQH LKWL\Do GX\PDVÕGÕU 6RQXoWD PRGHOH JHFLNPH GH÷HUOHUL GH LODYH HGLOHUHNHOGHHGLOHQGDKDJHQHOLIDGHGHGH÷LúPHPLúROXU. y. y. '%g D Dt 'g s E %g s
(66) ¦ x D L
(67) '%g s | ¦ x D L
(68) ''g s | Ht |
(69) . p. pw. p. z:{ p } g s | v+| ''g D Dv 'g s E %g s
(70) ¦ } w p p :~ D}0p L
(71) '%g s | ¦ :~ D#} } L
(72) '' H
(73) . p+p. z:{. <XNDUÕGDNL HúLWOLNOHU 9$5 PRGHOLQH EHQ]HPHNWHGLU øNL GH÷LúNHQOL EX 9$5 PRGHOL KDWD G]HOWPH LIDGHOHUL LOH oR÷DOWÕOPÕúWÕU %XUDGD Dt YH Dv KÕ] D\DUODPD SDUDPHWUHOHUL RODUDN DOJÕODQÕUODU .RHQWHJUH GH÷LúNHQOHU LoLQ *UDQJHU QHGHQVHOOL÷LQLQ ROPDPDVÕ KÕ] D\DUOD\DQ SDUDPHWUHQLQ VÕIÕUD HúLW ROPDVÕQÕ JHUHNWLULU<XNDUÕGDNLHúLWOLNOHUGHQHQD]ELULQGHKÕ]D\DUOD\DQWHULPLQVÕIÕUGDQ IDUNOÕROPDVÕJHUHNLU(÷HUKHULNLVLGHVÕIÕUVDX]XQG|QHPGHQJHLOLúNLVLRUWD\D oÕNPD]YHPRGHOKDWDG]HOWPHYH\DNRHQWHJUDV\RQQLWHOL÷LWDúÕPDPÕúROXU .RHQWHJUDV\RQ7HVWL+DWD']HOWPH0RGHOL (FP
(74) 9H1HGHQVHOOLN. 7UNL\H¶GH
(75)
(76) G|QHPLQL NDSVD\DQ EWoH DoÕNODUÕ LOH GÕú WLFDUHW DoÕNODUÕ DUDVÕQGDNL X]XQ G|QHP LOLúNLVLQLQ DPSLULN VRQXoODUÕ DúD÷ÕGDNL úHNLOGHJ|UOPHNWHGLUùHNLOGHEWoHDoÕ÷ÕYHGÕúWLFDUHWDoÕ÷ÕGH÷LúNHQOHULQLQ VH\UL L]OHQPHNWHGLU %WQ GH÷LúNHQOHULQ GR÷DO ORJDULWPDODUÕ DOÕQPÕú YH PHYVLPOLNHWNLOHUGHQDUÕQGÕUÕOPÕúWÕU} . . -. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ùHNLO% YH' 6HULOHUL .XOODQÕODQLVWDWLVWLNLYHULOHUFDULGH÷HUOHUROXS7&0%ND\QDNOÕGÕU . . .
(77) a cUcU _d* c\e f. ]_^ ^
(78) `:a ! , b. 'XUD÷DQOÕN 6WDWLRQDU\
(79) 7HVWL. 'XUD÷DQ ROPD\DQ VHULOHULQ ELULQFL IDUNÕ DOÕQGÕ÷ÕQGD GXUD÷DQ VHULOHUH G|Qú\RUODUVD \DQL ,
(80) úHNOLQGH VHULOHU RODUDN RUWD\D oÕNÕ\RUODUVD VHULOHU DUDVÕQGD NRHQWHJUDV\RQ DQOL]L &
(81) \DSÕODELOLU GHPHNWLU 6HULOHULQ GXUD÷DQ ROXS ROPDGÕ÷ÕQÕ EHOLUOHPHN LoLQ $XJPHQWHG 'LFNH\)XOOHU $')
(82) WHVWLQH EDúYXUXOPXú YH EWQ VHULOHULQ ,
(83) ROGX÷X J|UOPúWU N JHFLNPH GH÷HULQL J|VWHUPHN ]HUH %g YH 'g VHULOHULQLQ QRUPDO YH ELULQFL IDUNÕ DOÕQPÕú VHULOHULQ N JHFLNPHGH÷HULLoLQ0DF.LQQRQNULWLNGH÷HUOHULQHJ|UH$')WHVWVRQXoODUÕ 7DEOR¶GHJ|VWHULOPHNWHGLU 7DEOR6HULOHULQ$')YH338QLW5RRW7HVWL. 'H÷LúNHQ. $')'H÷HUL N
(84) 1RUPDO%LULQFL)DUN. . % . ' . . . 6HULQLQ ELULQFL WUHYLQLQ DQODPOÕN G]H\LQGH ELULP N|N LKWLYD HWPHGL÷L
(85) LúDUHWLLOHYHDQODPOÕOÕNG]H\LQGHELULPN|NLKWLYDHWPHGL÷L
(86) LúDUHWL LOH J|VWHULOPHNWHGLU 0DF.LQQRQ NULWLN GH÷HUOHUL YH DQODPOÕNG]H\LLoLQVÕUD\ODGXU *UDQJHU1HGHQVHOOLNøOLúNLVL. 9$5
(87) PRGHOLQL ROXúWXUDQ GH÷LúNHQOHULQ DUDODUÕQGD ELU QHGHQVHOOLN LOLúNLVLQLQ YDUOÕ÷ÕQÕ WHVW HWPHN LoLQ *UDQJHU
(88) QHGHQVHOOLN WHVWL \DSÕOPÕúWÕU 0RGHOLPL]N JHFLNPHLoLQo|]OG÷QGHQ*UDQJHUQHGHQVHOOL÷L GH LNL JHFLNPH LoLQ HVDV DOÕQPÕúWÕU 7DEOR GH J|UOG÷ JLEL EX WHVWLQ VRQXoODUÕQD J|UH EWoH DoÕNODUÕQÕQ *60+ ]HULQGH KLoELU QHGHQVHOOLN HWNLVL EXOXQPDPDNWDGÕU %XQXQ GÕúÕQGD EWQ GH÷LúNHQOHU YH DQODPOÕOÕN G]H\LQGHELUELUL\OHQHGHQVHOOLNLOLúNLVLLoLQGHGLU'ÕúWLFDUHWGHQJHVLQLQ*60+ ]HULQGHG]H\LQGHELUDQODPOÕNLOLúNLVLEXOXQPDNWDGÕU ; YH < JLEL LNL VHULQLQ *UDQJHU QHGHQVHOOLN LOLúNLVL DúD÷ÕGDNL GHQNOHP VLVWHPLúHNOLQGHLIDGHHGLOLU. ; <. . . . E < ¦ D ; ¦ . . H . ¦ D < ¦ E ; H .
(89) \j! k\l_m$ eUn' o 0 ] k0$ f0 !$. . 7DEOR*UDQJHU1HGHQVHOOLN7HVWOHUL 6ÕIÕU+LSRWH]L ' < QLQ*UDQJHUQHGHQLGH÷LOGLU < ' QLQ*UDQJHUQHGHQLGH÷LOGLU . *|]OHP . )øVWDWLVWL÷L . % ' QLQ*UDQJHUQHGHQLGH÷LOGLU ' % QLQ*UDQJHUQHGHQLGH÷LOGLU . . . %W< QLQ*UDQJHUQHGHQLGH÷LOGLU < % QLQ*UDQJHUQHGHQLGH÷LOGLU . . . . øKWLPDO . . 0LVVSHVLILNDV\RQ7HVWL. 9$5 PRGHOLQLQ HWNLQ WDKPLQL LoLQ EDúYXUXODQ EX WHVWH J|UH G|UW JHFLNPH LoLQ WHN GHQNOHP VSHVLILNDV\RQ WHVWOHULQGH GÕú WLFDUHW GH÷LúNHQL DQODPOÕOÕNG]H\LQGHQRUPDOOLNWHQVDSPDNWDGÕU%XVDSPDQÕQPRGHOWDKPLQLQGH KHUKDQJLELUROXPVX]HWNLVLEXOXQPDPDNWDGÕU . 7DEOR0LV6SHVLILFDWLRQ7HVWL. 'H÷LúNHQOHU. $5
(90) . 1RUPDOOLN. % ' .
(91)
(92) .
(93)
(94) . . $5&+
(95)
(96)
(97) . .RHQWHJUDV\RQYH+DWD']HOWPH. %g YH 'g GH÷LúNHQOHUL LoLQ HQ X\JXQ 9$5
(98) PRGHOL RODUDN HOGH HGLOPLúWLU (Q X\JXQ PRGHO VHoLPL LoLQ -RKDQVHQ
(99) WDUDIÕQGDQ JHOLúWLULOHQ UDQN EHOLUOHPH \|QWHPLQGH +
(100) + Q
(101) ¶H NDUúÕ WHVW HGLOLU +
(102) UHGGHGLOGL÷LQGH +
(103) + Q
(104) KLSRWH]LQH NDUúÕ WHVW HGLOLU 6RQXoWD NDEXO HGLOHQ + U
(105) KLSRWH]LQGH U UDQNÕQ ROGX÷X NDEXO HGLOLU 0RGHOLQ UDQNÕ EHOLUOHQGLNWHQ VRQUDELUELULQHHQ\DNÕQRODQ-RKDQVHQ\|QWHPLQHJ|UHSHúSHúHJHOHQPRGHOOHU ELU ELULQH NDUúÕ WHVW HGLOLU 3& *LYH SURJUDPÕ NXOODQÕODUDN HOGH HGLOHQ HQ X\JXQ PRGHO -RKDQVHQ \|QWHPL LOH ELU VRQUDNL PRGHOH J|UH WHVW HGLOHUHN HQ X\JXQRODQÕVHoLOPLúWLU %X oDOÕúPDGD 7DEOR GH
(106) \HU DODQ PD[LPXP HLJHQYDOXH RODELOLUOLN RUDQÕ LVWDWLVWL÷L O¡&¢ £ -RKDQVHQ
(107) \DNODúÕPÕLOHKHVDSODQPÕúWÕU . .
(108) ]_^ ^
(109) `:a ! , b. a cUcU _d* c\e f. . %X\|QWHPHJ|UH\DSÕODQoDOÕúPDGD +¤ ¥
(110) +¤ ¥ U
(111) +¤ ¥ Q
(112) 8. . 8. ,,. +¥
(113) +¥ U
(114) +¥ Q
(115) +¥
(116) +¤ ¥
(117) +¥
(118) +¤ ¥
(119) +¥ Q
(120) +¤ ¥ Q
(121) úHNOLQGH VÕQÕUODQGÕUÕOPDPÕú DOWHUQDWLIOHU HQ X\JXQ PRGHO LoLQ WHVW HGLOPLúWLU +LSRWH] NDEXO HGLOHQH NDGDU EX \|QWHPH GHYDP HGLOPLúWLU 8\JXQ PRGHOL VHoPHGH LNLQFL ELU NULWHU RODUDN $NDLNH ,QIRUPDWLRQ &ULWHULD YH 6FKZDU] %D\HVLDQ &ULWHULD ELOJL NULWHUOHUL NXOODQÕOPÕúWÕU .XOODQÕODQ PRGHOGH ELOJL NULWHUOHULHQGúNGH÷HUOHUHVDKLSWLU. .RHQWHJUDV\RQWHVWLVRQXoODUÕ DúD÷ÕGDNLWDEORGDYHULOPHNWHGLU<DSÕODQ WHVWWHELUNRHQWHJUHYHNW|UQEXOXQGX÷XYHGH÷LúNHQOHUDUDVÕQGDX]XQG|QHP LOLúNLVLQLQ ROGX÷X J|UOPHNWHGLU 6ÕQÕUODQGÕUÕOPDPÕú NRHQWHJUDV\RQ DQDOL]LQLQ VRQXoODUÕ9$5
(122) PRGHOLúHNOLQGHHOGHHGLOPLúWLU 7DEOR6ÕQÕUODQGÕUÕOPDPÕú.RHQWHJUDV\RQ7HVWL (LJHQYDOXHV +LSRWH]OHU. U . . Ud. O¡&¢ £ NULWLNGH÷HUOHU O ¦ ¢ § ¨ NULWLNGH÷HUOHU . . 'g LOH %g DUDVÕQGD VÕQÕUODQGÕUÕOPDPÕú NRHQWHJUDV\RQ DQDOL]LQGH ELU NRHQWHJUHYHNW|UEXOXQPDNWDGÕU . .
(123) . \j! k\l_m$ eUn' o 0 ] k0$ f0 !$ 7DEOR(&0'H÷HUOHUL. ©:ª!« ¬0 «®-¯+°±4²!ª-¬ ¹º » ¼ ¸ ½ À º » ¼ ¸ ½. ©:ª!« ¬! «®¯#°±.²ª-¬[³_´#µ ¶ µ ·0µ4¸ ¸-¾ ¿0¿¿!¿¿0¿ ¼#¸-¾ Á!Â!ÃÄÄ0 »¿'¾ ÅÄ0ÅÂÆ-½ »¼ Á'¾ Á!Ã0Å&¸ Å!½ Ç Ã'¾ È0ÁÃ!ÆÆ0à É:° °À>Ê!Ë-«¶ ÌÍ«!Î À:» ¹º ½ À[» À\º ½ ©:ª!« ¬0 «®-¯+°±4²!ª-¬ ¼ ¿'¾ ¸ Áϸ ÁÁ0Å ¿G¾ ÃÄϸ Ã!¿Ï¸ »¿'¾ ¿!Ä0Å&¸¿-½ »¿G¾ ¸ ¿Æ0Â!Å!½ »¼#¸-¾ Ä-ÐÁÄ!È0½ »ÃG¾ ÐÈGÄ-Á!Ð!½ ¼ ¿'¾ Ð!п!Â&¸  ¼¿'¾ Å!Á&¸ ¿GÄ-¿ ÀÑ ¹º »¼ ¸ ½Ò »¿'¾ ¸#ÅGÂ0ÐG¿-½ »¿G¾ ¸ ÂGÄ-ÈÂ0½ »¼ Ã'¾ ÐGÄ0ÁÄ!È0½ » ¼ ¸-¾ ÐGÄ!ÈÄ-Å!½ ¼ ' ¿ ¾ Å Ï È. ¸ G  0 Ä Á ¼¿'¾ Å0Ð'Ä-и Á ÀÑ ¹º »¼ Å!½Ò »¿'¾ ¸#ÅG¿Ä!Á-½ »¿G¾ ¸ Â&¸ ÃÁ0½ »¼ Å*¾ Å!ÐGÄ0¿!Ð!½ » ¼ ¸-¾ Á!ÃÆ!ÁÄ-½ ¼ ¿'¾ ¿0ÐÆÄ!Æ!à ¿G¾ ¸ ÐGÆ!Ã!Á0Ð ÀÑ À>º »¼ ¸ ½Ò »¿'¾ ¸0¸Æ0ÐG¿-½ »¿G¾ ¸ ÁÆ-и ½ »¼ ¿'¾ Ð&¸ ÈÄ!Â0½ »¿G¾ Æ!ÃÂ!Ä!Æ0½ ¿'¾ ¿-ÅGÂÄ!Â-Ð ¿G¾ ¿0Ðſϸ Å ÀÑ À>º »¼ Å!½ ½ »¿'¾ ¸ ¿Â!¿Ã-½ »¿G¾ ¸ и ÁÂ0½ »¿'¾ Å!ÁÃ!ÃÂ-½ »¿G¾ ÅÆÂ0ÈGÄ-½ Ç ¿'¾ ¸ ¿&¸ Æ¿0¿ ¿G¾ ¿0ÐGÂ0ÅGÄ*¸ »¿'¾ ¿0ÂÃ!ÂÈ-½ »¿G¾ ¿Ä!Á0¿&¸ ½ » ¸-¾ Â0¿¿!ÃÈ-½ »¿G¾ Á0ÐÐ0ÐÅ!½ Ó&¼±4 ° µ ±. µ Ô Ð*¾ Æ0ÃÁ!ÆÈ-Å ÃG¾ Æ0Ð'Ä!Ä0Â0Å Õª!®:¶ µ Ö'«¶ µ ×Gª!ª!Ø ¼ ÃGÄG¾ Ä0Æ!¿ÈÄ ¼ÁÂG¾ ÅGÃ!¿Æ0¿ Ù Ö*°µ ÖG« Ù:Ú.Ç ¸-¾ Ð!ÆÂ!ÃÁ0Æ Å'¾ ¿!È!ÐÃ!Â!Ã Û Ô ×!ÜV° ¯Ë ÛÇ ¸-¾ È0¿Á!ÈÆ-Ð Å'¾ ÅGÄ!Ã!È!ÆÄ ÝÞ«° ¬Ø!« ß'« ¬Ø!« ¬! ¿'¾ ¿0ÂÈ!Â&¸ Æ ¿G¾ ¿!ÿ0ÐGÄ0¿ Õª!®:Õµ ÖG«¶ µ ×Gª0ªØ ¼Æ!Ð'¾ Æ!ÅÁÃ0¿ Ù Ö*°µ Ö'« Ú ¬Gàª-¯ÌT° µ ª-¬ Ç ¯+µ «#¯+µ ° ÃG¾ Â!ÿÄ-ÐÃ Û Ô ×0ÜV° ¯.Ë Ç ¯+µ «#¯+µ ° Ð'¾ ¸!¸Æ!Á0Å!Ð áª-4Îâ°#¯4° ¬! « Ë-Ø0« Ö'µ ¶ « ¯P±+ã ¯#° ²!¶ °
(124) !ä!å! !æ!G :ç!«>GØ!«·0« ¯+¶ « ¯4µ Ø!µ ¯ ¾ . .
(125) ]_^ ^
(126) `:a ! , b. a cUcU _d* c\e f. 6ÕQÕUODQGÕUÕOPDPÕú NRHQWHJUDV\RQ DQDOL]LQGH KDWD G]HOWPH GHQNOHPL. DúD÷ÕGDNLúHNLOGHGLU. %g 'g +DWD G]HOWPH GHQNOHPLQGH J|UOG÷ JLEL EWoH DoÕNODUÕQÕQ FDUL LúOHPOHUOH X]XQ G|QHP GR÷UXVDO ELU LOLúNL LoHULVLQGH ROGX÷X J|UOPHNWHGLU %WoH DoÕNODUÕQÕQ GÕú WLFDUHW HODVWLNL\HWL ELUGHQ E\NWU %WoH DoÕNODUÕQGDNL DUWÕúGÕúWLFDUHWDoÕNODUÕQÕQ]HULQGHVH\UHWPHNWHGLU 6RQXo. %X oDOÕúPD EWoH DoÕNODUÕ\OD GÕú WLFDUHW DoÕNODUÕ DUDVÕQGDNL LOLúNLOHUL DUDúWÕUPD\D \|QHOLNWLU %X NRQXGDNL oDOÕúPDODUÕQ oR÷XQOX÷XQX EWoH DoÕNODUÕ\OD GÕú WLFDUHW DoÕNODUÕ DUDVÕQGD SR]LWLI ELU LOLúNL ROGX÷XQX LOHUL VUHQ .H\QH]\HQ J|UúQ DPSLULN RODUDN DUDúWÕUÕOPDVÕ ]HULQGH \R÷XQODúPDNWDGÕU %XQXQODELUOLNWHDPSLULNoDOÕúPDODUÕQoR÷XQOX÷X$%'YHULOHULQHGD\DOÕRODUDN \DSÕOPÕúWÕU %X QHGHQOH GL÷HU ONHOHUOH LOJLOL EX NRQXGD oDOÕúPD \DSÕOPDVÕQD LKWL\DoROGX÷XNDQDDWLQGH\L]. 7UNL\H (NRQRPLVLQLQ VRQUDVÕ oHU D\OÕN YHULOHULQL NXOODQDUDN NRHQWHJUDV\RQ DQDOL] (&0 YH *UDQJHU QHGHQVHOOL÷LQH GD\DOÕ RODUDN \DSÕODQ DQDOL]GH .H\QH]\HQ J|UúQ OHKLQGH NÕVD YH X]XQ G|QHPH LOLúNLQ JoO EXOJXODU PHYFXWWXU %X G|QHPLQ VHoLOPHVLQLQ QHGHQL |QFHVLQLQ \DQL 7UNL\H¶GH IDUNOÕ ELU GÕú WLFDUHW UHMLPLQLQ X\JXODQGÕ÷Õ G|QHPLQ YHULOHULQLQ NXOODQÕOPDVÕVRQXoODUÕIDUOÕODúWÕUDELOLUGL. $PSLULN EXOJXODU EX LNL GH÷LúNHQ DUDVÕQGD NDUúÕOÕNOÕ RODUDN *UDQJHU QHGHQVHOOL÷LQLQJoOROGX÷XQXJ|VWHUPHNWHGLU<DSÕODQNRHQWHJUDV\RQWHVWLQGH LNL JHFLNPH LoLQ ELU NRHQWHJUH YHNW|UQ ROGX÷X EHOLUOHQPLúWLU 6ÕQÕUODQGÕUÕOPDPÕú NRHQWHJUDV\RQ DQDOL]LQGH HQ X\JXQ 9$5
(127) PRGHOL WDKPLQLQGH KDWD G]HOWPH GHQNOHPL WUHWLOPLúWLU 'HQNOHPGH EWoH DoÕNODUÕ LOH GÕú WLFDUHW DoÕNODUÕ DUDVÕQGD SR]LWLI ELU LOLúNLQLQ YDUOÕ÷Õ J|UOPúWU %X GD J|VWHUL\RU NL EX LNL GH÷LúNHQ DUDVÕQGD ELU X]XQ G|QHP LOLúNLVL EXOXQPDNWDGÕU 6SHVLILNDV\RQYHWDQÕWHVWOHUL(&0WDKPLQOHULDPSLULNoHUoHYHYH.H\QH]\HQ GúQFHPDQWÕ÷ÕLOHX\XPOXRODQWDWPLQHGLFLVRQXoODUYHUPHNWHGLU. 6RQXoRODUDNFDULLúOHPOHUGHNLELUELULPOLNGH÷LúPHEWoHDoÕNODUÕ ]HULQGH \DNODúÕN ELU EXoXN NDWOÕN ELU HWNL\H VDKLSWLU <DQL GÕú WLFDUHW DoÕ÷ÕQÕQ EWoH DoÕNODUÕQÕ |QHPOL |OoGH DUWÕUÕFÕ ELU HWNL WDúÕPDNWDGÕU%X DQODPDGD GÕú WLFDUHW DoÕ÷ÕQÕ NDSDWPDGDQ EWoH DoÕNODUÕQÕ WHN EDúÕQD NDSDWPDQÕQJoRODFD÷ÕVRQXFXRUWD\DoÕNPDNWDGÕU . .
(128) . \j! k\l_m$ eUn' o 0 ] k0$ f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d$. $%(// -RKQ '
(129) ³7ZLQ 'HILFLWV 'XULQJ WKH V $Q $PSLULFDO ,QYHVWLJDWLRQ-RXUQDORI0DFURHFRQRPLFV
(130) $6+8(5 'DYLG $
(131) ³)LVFDO 'HILFLW DQG WKH 7UDGH 'HILFLW´ )HGHUDO 5HVHUYH%DQNRI&KLFDJR(FRQRPLF3HUVSHFWLYHV. %$+0$1,2VNRRHH0RKVHQ
(132) ³:KDWDUHWKH/RQJ5XQ'HWHUPLQDWVRI WKH 86 7UDGH %DODQFH"´ -RXUQDO RI 3RVW .H\QHVLDQ (FRQRPLFV
(133) . %$+0$1,2VNRRHH0RKVHQ
(134) ³7KH/RQJ5XQ'HWHUPLQDWVRIWKH86 7UDGH %DODQFH 5HYLVLWHG´ -RXUQDO RI 3RVW .H\QHVLDQ (FRQRPLFV
(135) . %$1(5-(($'RODGR--*$/%5$ø7+-:DQG')+(1'5<
(136) &RLQWHJUDWLRQ(UURU&RUUHFWLRQDQG(FRQRPHWULF$QDO\VLVRI1RQ 6WDWLRQDU\'DWD1HZ<RUN2[IRUG8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV. '$55$7 $OL )
(137) ³+DYH /DUJH %XGJHW 'HILFHWV &DXVHG 5LVLQJ 7UDGH 'HILLFWV"6RXWKHUQ(FRQRPLF-RXUQDO
(138) . '2251ø.-DQG+(1'5<')
(139) 0RGHOOLQJ'\QDPLF6\VWHPV8VLQJ 3F )LPO IRU :LQGRZV /RQGRQ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 7KRPVRQ %XVLQHVV 3UHVV '2251ø.-DQG+(1'5<')
(140) *LYH:LQDQ,QWHUIDFHWR(PSLULFDO 0RGHOOLQJ+DUURZ7LPEHUODNH&RQVXOWDQW3UHVV. '2251ø. - DQG +(1'5< ')
(141) 3F*LYH 9ROXPH (PSLULFDO (FRQRPHWULF0RGHOOLQJ8VLQJ+DUURZ7LPEHUODNH&RQVXOWDQW3UHVV. '2251ø. - +(1'5< ') DQG % 1,(/6(1
(142) ³,QIHUHQFH LQ &RLQWHJUDWLQJ 0RGHOV 8. 0 5HYLVLWHG´ -RXUQDO RI (FRQRPLF 6XUYH\V6SHFLDO,VVXH. . .
(143) ]_^ ^
(144) `:a ! , b. a cUcU _d* c\e f. (1'(56 :DOWHU DQG /(( %RQJ6RR
(145) ³&XUUHQW $FFRXQW DQG %XGJHW 'HILFLWV 7ZLQV RU 'LVWDQW &RXVLQV´ 7KH 5HYLHZ RI (FRQRPLFV DQG 6WDWLVWLFV
(146) . (1'(56 :DOWHU DQG /(( %RQJ6RR
(147) $SSOLHG (FRQRPHWULF 7LPH 6HULHV1HZ<RUN-RKQ:LOH\DQG6RQV,QF. (1*/( 5) DQG *5$1*(5 &9-
(148) ³&RHQWHJUDWLRQ DQG (UURU &RUUHFWLRQ 5HSUHVDQWDWLRQ (VWLPDWLRQ DQG 7HVWLQJ´ (FRQRPHWULFD . *5$1*(5 &OLYH :-
(149) ³,QYHVWLJDWLQJ &DXVDO 5HODWLRQV E\ (FRQRPHWULF0RGHOVDQG&URVV6SHFWUDO0HWKRGV´(FRQRPHWULFD . *5$1*(5&OLYH:-
(150) ³'HYHORSPHQWVLQWKH6WXG\RI&R,QWHJUDWHG (FRQRPLF9DULDEOHV´2[IRUG%XOOHWLQRI(FRQRPLFVDQG6WDWLVWLFV
(151) . *5$1*(5&OLYH:-
(152) ³6RPH5HFHQW'HYHORSPHQWVLQD&RQFHSWRI &DXVDOLW\´-RXUQDORI(FRQRPHWULFV
(153) . +(1'5< ') DQG -86(/,86 .
(154) ³([SODLQLQJ &RLQWHJUDWLRQ $QDO\VLV3DUW´(QHUJ\-RXUQDO
(155) . +87&+,621 0LFKDHO 0 DQG 3,*277 &KDUOHV
(156) ³%XGJHW 'HILFWV ([FKDQJH5DWHVDQGWKH&XUUHQW$FFRXQW7KHRU\DQG86(YLGHQFH´ (FRQRPLF5HYLHZ. -2+$16(1 6RUHQ
(157) ³6WDWLVWLFDO $QDO\VLV RI &RLQWHJUDWLRQ 9HFWRUV´ -RXUQDORI(FRQRPLF'\QDPLFVDQG&RQWURO
(158) . -2+$16(1 6RUHQ
(159) ³(VWLPDWLRQ DQG +\SRWKHVLV 7HVWLQJ RI &RLQWHJUDWLRQ 9HFWRUV LQ *DXVVLDQ 9HFWRU $XWRUHJUHVVLYH 0RGHOV´ (FRQRPHWULFD
(160) . -2+$16(16RUHQ
(161) /LNHOLKRRG%DVHG,QIHUHQFHLQ&RLQWHJUDWHG9HFWRU $XWRUHJUHVVLYH0RGHOV1HZ<RUN2[IRUG8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV. .,0 .L+R
(162) ³2Q WKH /RQJ5XQ 'HWHUPLQDWV RI WKH 86 7UDGH %DODQFH$&RPPHQW´-RXUQDORI3RVW.H\QHVLDQ(FRQRPLFV
(163) . 0,//(56WHSKHQ0 DQG5866(. )UDQN6
(164) ³$UHWKH7ZLQ'HILFLWV 5HDOO\5HODWHG"´&RQWHPSUDU\3ROLF\,VVXHV
(165) . 52'5,*8(= &DUORV $
(166) ³7KH ([WHUQDO (IIHFWV RI 3XEOLF 6HFWRU 'HILFLWV´ :36 :RUOG %DQN &RXQWU\ (FRQRPLFV 'HSDUWPHQW :DVKLQJWRQ'&. . .
(167) . \j! k\l_m$ eUn' o 0 ] k0$ f0 !$. 6($7(5 -RKQ -
(168) ³5LFDUGLDQ (TXLYDOHQFH´ -RXUQDO RI (FRQRPLF /LWHUDWXUH
(169) . 9$0928.$6*$
(170) ³+DYH/DUJH%XGJHW'HILFLWV&DXVHG,QFUHDVLQJ 7UDGH 'HILFLWV" (YLGHQFH IURP D 'HYHORSLQJ &RXQWU\´ $ ( -
(171) . =,(7=-RDFKLPDQG3(0%(5721'RQDOG.
(172) ³7KH86%XGJHWDQG 7UDGH'HILFLWV$6LPXOWDQHRXV(TXDWLRQ0RGHO´6RXWKHUQ(FRQRPLF -RXUQDO
(173) . . .
(174)
Benzer Belgeler
İslam dininin temel kaynağı olan Kur’an-ı Kerim, bütün insanlığa rehber olarak gönderilmiş ve kıyamete kadar ilahi koruma altında olan son ilahi kitaptır.
1918 yılında İstanbul'da do ğan şair ve yazar Behçet Ne- catigil 1940 yılında İstanbul Yüksek Öğretmen Okulunu bi tirmiştir.. Bir süre Kars Lisesin de
Masaüstü bilgisayarlarda kullanılan en yüksek depolama kapasitesine sahip sabit disk 2TB ve Western Digital tarafından 2009 başlarında piyasaya sürüldü.. Aradan bir yıldan
Meigen, Anopheles messeae Falleroni, Anopheles sacharovi Favre, Aedes caspius Pallas, Aedes geniculatus Olivier, Aedes rusticus Rossi, Aedes vexans Meigen, Culex
This study aimed to detect the prevalence of both 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) and 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D (1,25(OH)2D) deficiency in patients with stage 3-4 chronic kidney
Mimarların yapılarında anlam arama, geçmişle bütünleşme türü olguların temel ilkelerini oluş- turduğu Post-Modern mimarlık akımı, birçok disiplinde Modernizm’e
[r]
Bu amaçla, aşağıdaki tabloda ilk olarak Azerbaycan’ın ham petrol (AZER) ihracatı ile Türkiye’nin sebzeler, meyveler, sert kabuklu meyveler ve bitkilerin diğer