Products
Sales volumes, estimated value averages, average selling prices, auction ratios and sales revenues obtained for undamaged fir timber and insect-damaged fir pulpwood in the auction sales held between 2008-2012 are given in summary form in Table 1 and graphically in Figure 1.
Auction ratios contained in Table 1 were found by dividing the difference between the average selling price and the appraised value average of the relevant year by the appraised value average of the same year (Daşdemir, 2003). Sales revenues are obtained by multiplying average selling prices with the sales volumes. When an evaluation is made regarding the sales volumes based on the data in Table 1, it can be said that the sales volumes of undamaged fir timber was the highest in 2011, and that the sales in the other years were below the average sales volume (6,916.900 m3). In this case, the year 2011 stands out in terms of sales volume. Likewise, the average appraised value of fir timber, the average selling price, and the revenue values were also quite high in the same year. When Table 1 is considered with respect to the sales volumes of insect-damaged fir pulpwood, it can be seen that all the years except the year 2012 had similar sales volumes for fir pulpwood. However, during 2011, the sales volume and sales revenues were still higher than
Table 1. Results related to undamaged timber and insect-damaged pulpwood sales.
YEARS
Undamaged Fir Timber Insect-Damaged Fir Pulpwood
Sales
Volumes Estimated
Value Avg. Avg. Sales
Prices Auction
Ratio Sales
Revenues Sales
Volumes Estimated
Value Avg. Avg. Sales
Prices Auction
Ratio Sales Revenues (m3) (TL/ m3) (TL/ m3) (%) (TL) (m3) (TL/ m3) (TL/ m3) (%) (TL) 2008 6,823.282 217.91 232.73 6.37 1,587,982 9866.684 141.73 166.77 15.01 1,645,467
2009 3,756.681 181.05 187.48 3.43 704,303 7505.172 141.95 143.06 0.78 1,073,690
2010 3,071.369 179.11 210.66 14.98 647,015 9117.300 118.51 162.34 27.00 1,480,102
2011 17,133.057 224.87 274.26 18.01 4,698,912 10977.437 153.30 205.76 25.50 2,258,717
2012 3,800.112 217.35 227.73 4.56 865,400 259.343 160.00 171.64 6.78 44,514
Total 34,584.501 8,503,611 37,725.936 6,502,490
Average 6,916.900 204.06 226.57 9.47 1,700,722 7,545.187 143.10 169.91 15.01 1,300,498
According to Figure 1, there are differences in sales volumes with respect to the product types during the five-year period. While the sales volumes of insect-damaged fir pulpwood were higher in the second half of 2008 and in a significant portion of 2009 and 2010, the sales of undamaged fir timber gained weight in a significant part of 2011 and in the entire 2012. Volume of sales for insect-damaged fir pulpwood follows a bell-shaped trend in all years except 2012 while sales volumes of undamaged fir demonstrated waved trend.
Volume of fir timber sales was higher during the first half of 2008 and in 2011 compared to the other years. During the first year when insect damage took place (2008), the volume of timber sales increased and showed a peak in the eighth auction (07.07.2008). It started to decrease after this date. In contrast, the sales of the insect-damaged pulpwood followed an exactly opposite trend. Therefore, insect damage reflected in operating
losses due to insect damage reflected to the enterprise revenues as from the second half of 2008 and onwards.
A review to be made with respect to selling prices will show that average selling prices of insect-damaged pulpwood followed a trend below the overall average selling price (average of the five-year period) during 2008-2009 and during the first six months of 2010, except the first half of 2008 and a few other instances.
From the second half of 2010 and onwards, the situation reversed and the average selling prices in the years 2011 and 2012 climbed over the overall average selling price. According to this result, the sales revenues between the years 2008 and 2010 are understood to be lower than the revenues in 2011.
A similar finding is also found for undamaged timber sales. Likewise, the average selling price of the undamaged timber followed a trend below the overall Figure 1. Comparison of sales volumes and selling prices of undamaged fir timber and
insect-damaged fir pulpwood (2008-2012).
and onwards, and this situation continued until the last months of 2010 with a few exceptions, rising again over the average selling price as from the year 2011 and onwards. In the light of these results, it can be said that there is a significant difference both in the sales volumes and in the selling prices of undamaged and insect-damaged product types by the years. Therefore, the second half of 2008, the entire 2009 and the first half of 2010 were the periods during which insect damage was intense.
On the other hand, when the overall average selling prices plotted in Figure 1 are considered with respect to product types, it can be seen that the curve for the overall average selling price of pulpwood timber remains below the curve for the overall average selling price of undamaged timber. According to the overall average selling prices, undamaged fir timber is sold at a price of 226.57 TL/m3 while insect-damaged fir pulpwood is sold to 169.91 TL/m3. The obtained results are in line with the results of a similar study (Dikilitaş and Öztürk, 2010). Likewise, in the study in which auction sales of Artvin Regional Forest Directorate during the years between 2005 and 2009 were examined, the overall average selling price of timbers was 125.66 TL/
m3 while the overall average selling price of pulpwood remained at a level of 84.91 TL/m3. So, the selling price of undamaged fir timber is always and under all circumstances higher than the selling price of insect-damaged fir pulpwood.
In the light of the results obtained in this study, it can be said that there are differences between the sales
volumes and the overall and annual average selling prices by product types. However, it would be mistaken to claim that insect damage is the sole factor affecting the auction sales. Because, several factors, whether under the control of the enterprises or not, have also an effect on the auction sales. Likewise, auction sales are under the influence of several other factors such as overall condition of the economy, internal and external market conditions, supply and demand structures, seasons, estimated selling price, product types and quality, size of the sales party and so on (Daşdemir, 2003). These factors, some of which can be controlled and others can not be controlled by forestry enterprises, directly affect the revenues of forestry enterprises through volume and price (Dikilitaş and Öztürk, 2010).
Therefore, in the marketing of forest products, a special emphasis should be given especially to the quantity of the sold products and the final sales price obtained as a result of the auction sales (İlter and Ok, 2004).
As for this study, in which economical impacts of insect damage on Bartın region forests are investigated, an assumption was made that only insect damage was effective on the auction sales, and the effects of other factors that are or are not under the control of the enterprises were excluded.
The summary of auction sales by the years is provided in Table 2. According to these data, selling prices of undamaged timber in 2008, 2011 and 2012 years and selling prices of insect-damaged pulpwood in 2011 and 2012 years followed a trend above the average selling price of the five-year period.
Table 2. Descriptive statistics regarding the annual average selling prices of undamaged timber and insect-damaged pulpwood (on the basis of 2012 prices, TL/m3).
Type of Sales Years Number of
Auctions Average Selling Price Std. Deviation Min. Max.
Undamaged Fir Timber
2008 13 232,73 29,16 8,10 215,11
2009 12 187,48 11,16 3,22 180,38
2010 12 210,66 24,67 7,12 194,99
2011 12 274,26 8,85 2,56 268,63
2012 7 227,73 21,18 8,01 208,14
Total 56 Average=226,57
Insect-Damaged Pulpwood
2008 14 166,77 27,21 7,27 151,06
2009 13 143,06 14,00 3,88 134,61
2010 12 162,34 28,18 8,13 144,43
2011 11 205,76 14,84 4,47 195,79
2012 5 171,64 20,99 9,39 145,58
Total 55 Average=169,91
The data was subjected to the analysis of variance
in order to determine whether or not the differences observed between the annual average selling prices are significant, and the results are summarized in Table 3.
As can be seen in Table 3, there is a statistically significant difference between the average selling prices of both undamaged timber and insect-damaged pulpwood by years (Ftimber= 28.728; p<0.05; Fpulpwood = 12.280;
p<0.05).
In order to understand between which years these differences occurred, which were found as a result of analysis of variance related to the selling prices of both types of products; first the homogeneity of variances was examined, and at the end of this analysis, it was concluded that the variances of undamaged timber were non-homogeneous (Levene: 3.521, p<0.05), and the variances of insect-damaged pulpwood were homogeneous (Levene: 2.097, p>0.05). Therefore, Games-Howell test, which is used for distributions with a non-uniform variance, was used for the former one, and Tukey test, which is used for distributions with a uniform variance, was used for the latter one (Table 4).
In Table 4; with respect to average selling prices, the year 2011 shows significant differences from the other years for timber products, and the years 2011 and 2012 show significant differences for insect-damaged pulpwood. Accordingly, with respect to average selling prices, the year 2011 for timber and the years 2011 and 2012 for pulpwood may be collected as successful years under the first group; and the years 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2012 for timber and the years 2008, 2009 and 2010 for pulpwood may be gathered as unsuccessful years under the second group.
Results of analysis for pulpwood prices (Table 4) show parallelism with the sales volumes obtained in the second half of 2008, in 2009 and in the first half of 2010, when the insect damage was at the highest level. Likewise, intense insect damage was observed in the forests of BFE from the second half of 2008 and onwards, and extraordinary allowable cuts were made until the second half of 2010 due to insect damage.
The process of cutting the relevant trees and making them ready for sales (cutting, skidding, transportation, storage, preparation for sale and sale), that is the production and sales process lasts about 5-6 months.
Thus, part of the products put on the sale in a year will belong to the previous year. Therefore, since the cutting and stacking processes of 2009 took place in 2010 as well, insect damage was also felt in 2010 after 2008 and 2009 years, during which insect damage was the most intense. It is understood that the results of Table 1 and Figure 1 are in line with the results of Table 4.
Table 3. Results of the analysis of variance related to the selling prices of timber and pulpwood products.
Sum of Squares StandardDeviation Average of the
Squares F Sig.
Undamaged Timber Between-groups 45284.254 4 11321.064 17.697 .000
Within-group 32626.326 51 639.732
Total 77910.580 55
Insect-damaged
pulpwood Between-groups 24233.718 4 6058.429 12.280 .000
Within-group 24667.916 50 493.358
Total 48901.633 54
Table 4. Results of multiple comparisons of annual average selling prices according to Games-Howel and Tukey's tests.
Product Type Post-Hoc
Test Years
(I) Years (J)
Average of Differences
(I-J)
Standart
Error Sig. 95% Confidence Interval Lower Limit Upper Limit
Undamaged
timber Games-Howel
2008
2009 45,26(*) 8,29 0,001 17,44 73,07
2010 22,07 11,65 0,276 -8,64 52,78
2011 -41,52(*) 8,33 0,002 -65,35 -17,69
2012 5,01 11,39 0,991 -32,68 42,69
2009
2008 -45,26(*) 8,29 0,001 -73,07 -17,44
2010 -23,18 7,32 0,062 -45,02 -1,34
2011 -86,78(*) 4,00 0 -97,22 -76,33
2012 -40,25(*) 8,52 0,01 -67,66 -12,85
2010
2008 -22,07 11,65 0,276 -52,78 8,64
2009 23,18 7,32 0,062 -1,34 47,71
2011 -63,60(*) 4,33 0 -89,23 -37,97
2012 -17,07 10,26 0,524 -48,65 14,52
2011
2008 41,52(*) 8,33 0,002 17,69 65,35
2009 86,78(*) 4,00 0 76,33 97,22
2010 63,60(*) 4,33 0 37,97 89,23
2012 46,53(*) 8,63 0,005 15,88 77,18
2012
2008 -5,01 11,39 0,991 -42,69 32,68
2009 40,25(*) 8,52 0,01 12,85 67,66
2010 17,07 10,26 0,524 -14,52 48,65
2011 -46,53(*) 8,63 0,005 77,18 -170,23
Insect-damaged
pulpwood Tukey
2008
2009 12,55 8,56 0,238 -0,50 47,92
2010 4,43 8,74 0,286 -20,29 29,16
2011 -38,99(*) 8,95 0,001 -64,32 -13,67
2012 -44,87(*) 11,57 0,003 -37,62 27,88
2009
2008 -12,55 8,56 0,238 -47,92 0,50
2010 -9,45 8,89 0,209 -44,44 5,89
2011 -62,70(*) 9,10 0 -88,45 -36,95
2012 -38,57(*) 11,69 0,001 -61,65 4,50
2010
2008 -4,43 8,74 0,286 -29,16 20,29
2009 9,45 8,89 0,209 -5,89 44,44
2011 -43,43(*) 9,27 0,003 -69,66 -17,19
2012 -39,52(*) 11,82 0,002 -42,76 24,16
2011
2008 38,99(*) 8,95 0,001 13,67 64,32
2009 62,70(*) 9,10 0 36,95 88,45
2010 43,43(*) 9,27 0,003 17,19 69,66
2012 14,12 11,98 0,248 0,23 68,03
2012
2008 44,87(*) 11,57 0,003 -27,88 37,62
2009 38,57(*) 11,69 0,001 -4,50 61,65
2010 39,52(*) 11,82 0,002 -24,16 42,76
2011 -14,12 11,98 0,248 -68,03 -0,23
(*) Average of differences is significant at the 0.05 level.