05.06.2004 tarih ve 2004/7360 sayılı 2004-2005 Dönemi Hububat Ürünü Alımı ve Satımı Hakkında Karar
28.08.2004 tarih ve 2004/7743 sayılı 2004-2005 Dönemi Hububat Ürünü Alımı ve Satımı Hakkında Kararda Değişiklik Yapılmasına Dair Karar
22.04.2005 tarih ve 2005/8708 sayılı Hububat Ürünü 2004-2005 Dönemi Alımı ve Satımı Hakkında Karar’da Değişiklik Yapılmasına Dair Karar
01.06.2005 tarih ve 2005/8871 sayılı Hububat Ürünü 2005 - 2006 Dönemi Alımı ve Satımı Hakkında Karar
10.06.2006 tarih ve 2006/10506 sayılı Hububat Ürünü Alımı ve Satımı Hakkında Karar
04.10.2006 tarih ve 2006/10910 sayılı Hububat Ürünü Alımı ve Satımı Hakkında Kararda Değişiklik Yapılmasına Dair Karar
20.06.2009 tarih ve 2009/15095 sayılı Hububat Ürünü Alımı ve Satımı Hakkında Karar
Extensive Summary
Econometric Analysis of Turkish Grain Board Purchases in Turkey’s Wheat Market
Introduction
Especially in periods of high production, decline in prices during harvest due to increased supply, can be difficult for producers who don’t have product storage capability and are in need of financing. Therefore, in order to protect the producers, TGB announces a purchasing price taking into consideration indicators like the production amount, domestic market price, world price, production cost etc. and purchases wheat from the market. The protection provided to producers by intervention purchases is carried out within budget constraints and the resulting duty loss payments can cause serious costs to the public.
In this study, TGB’s wheat purchasing policy was analyzed. For this purpose, the reason of supporting/intervention purchase policy is summarized theoretically and econometric analysis is carried out with variables considered to affect TGB’s wheat purchases by examining TGB’s product purchase policy and literature. In this context, the short and long-term effects of variables on TGB wheat purchases were examined in the 1980-2013 period using the vector autoregressive model (VAR) and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound test approach.
Method
In this study, the effects of variables of wheat production, wheat price, TGB’s wheat purchase price and world wheat price on TGB’s wheat purchase amount in 1980-2013 period were analyzed by VAR model and ARDL bound test approach. Due to the climatic conditions in Turkey, wheat production is more common than other crops and wheat constitutes most of the TGB’s purchases. For this reason wheat was used in the analyzes. 2014 was an exceptional year for TGB purchases since TGB’s purchasing prices have not been announced that year. For this reason, the analysis period was determined as 1980-2013. The logarithmic transformation of the variables has been made and the prices transformed into real variables.
In the econometric analysis, the VAR model was estimated firstly. Impulse response and variance decomposition analyzes obtained from the VAR model were performed. However, the granger causality test was used to determine the causality between the variables. Secondly, the cointegration relation between variables was
investigated by the ARDL bound test approach. Long term coefficients, error correction coefficients and short term coefficients of variables are estimated by using ARDL model.
Results
According to the results of the impulse response analysis obtained from the VAR model, a positive shock in wheat production amount and TGB’s wheat purchasing prices increases the amount of TGB’s wheat purchase, and a positive shock in wheat prices and world prices reduces the amount of TGB’s wheat purchase. When the results of the variance decomposition are examined, it is seen that amount of TGB wheat purchases are mainly derived from wheat production. According to the variance decomposition results, 41 percent of the variation in the variance of TGB wheat purchase amount in the first period is derived from itself and 49 percent is due to wheat production. As the effects of other variables increase by the 10th period, the effect of wheat production decreases by 27 percent and the effect of wheat production falls to 29 percent.
According to the ARDL bound test results, in the long term, 1 percent increase in wheat production increases TGB’s wheat purchases by 8.28 percent, 1 percent increase in wheat prices reduces TGB’s wheat purchases by 4.62 percent, 1 percent increase in TGB’s wheat purchase prices increases TGB’s wheat purchases by 5 percent. In the long run, world wheat prices has a negative effect on amount of TGB’s wheat purchases but this effect is insignificant. However, the trend variable is marked
with a meaningful and negative sign. This, suggests a long-term reduction in TMO purchases. According to the error correction model results, if any shock or extraordinary effect occurs, this effect is quickly eliminated in the following year. In the short run, it is found that amount of wheat production and wheat prices affect TGB’s wheat purchases. While 1 percent increase in wheat production in the short term increases the wheat purchase of TGB by 6.87 percent, 1 percent increase in wheat prices reduces TGB’s wheat purchase by 6.32 percent.
Conclusion
It is observed that while TGB’s wheat purchase is affected by wheat production amount, wheat price, TGB’s wheat purchase price and world wheat prices; TGB’s purchases are more susceptible to changes in wheat production amount. Due to the falling market prices as a result of increasing availability of harvested crops during the harvest period and insufficient access to storage and financing, the producers prefer to sell their products to TGB, which purchases products at higher prices against other buyers. Intervention purchases will not be needed if the supply elasticity, which is low mainly due to the insufficient access of producers to storage and financing, is increased.
Adequate storage and financing facilities will increase supply flexibility of producers and limit production and price reductions during harvesting periods so that producers can be protected within the market system without the need for TGB’s purchases. In this context, it is important to establish a licensed warehousing system in Turkey, which is a market-oriented approach that assures supply flexibility by providing warehousing
and financing opportunities for producers. In 2005, the Law on Agricultural Products Licensed Warehouse No. 5300 and its sub-legislation were prepared and enforced in Turkey. However, despite the fact that 12 years have passed since the legislative act entered into force, utilization of the licensed warehousing system in our country is far below the desired level.