GRADUATE SCHOOL OF APPLIED AND NATURAL SCIENCES
SELECTING THE BEST PIPELINE OF YEMEN OIL FIELDS AND TRANSPORTATION VIA AHP
Rasheeq Mohammed FADHL
Assist. Prof. Dr. Emin Başar BAYLAN
DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING ISTANBUL – 2021
ACCEPTANCE AND APPROVAL PAGE
On 24/02/2021, Rasheeq Mohammed Ahmed FADHL successfully defended the thesis entitled “Selecting The Best Pipeline Of Yemen Oil Fields And Transportation Via AHP” which he prepared after fulfilling the requirements specified in the associated legislations, before the jury members whose signatures are listed below. This thesis is accepted as a Master’s Thesis by Istanbul Commerce University. Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences Department of Industrial Engineering.
Supervisor Assist. Prof. Dr. Emin Başar BAYLAN ...
Istanbul Commerce University
Jury Member Prof. Dr. İsmail EKMEKÇİ ...
Istanbul Commerce University
Jury Member Assoc. Prof. Dr. Özlem ŞENVAR ...
Approved Date: 15/03/2021
Istanbul commerce university, Graduate School of Natural and Applide Scinces, accordance with the 1st article of the board of Directors Decision dated 15.03.2021 and numbered 2021/308, “Rasheeq Mohammed Ahmed Fadhl (TC:99152406556)” Who has determined to fulfill the course load and thesis obligation was unanimously decided to gradute.
Prof. Dr. Necip ŞİMŞEK
Head of Graduate School of Natural and Applied Science
DECLARATION OF COMPLIANCE WITH ACADEMIC AND ETHIC RULES
In this thesis I prepared in accordance with the rules of thesis writing, Istanbul Commerce University, Graduate School of Natural and Applied Science,
I obtained all the information and documents in the thesis within the framework of academic rules,
I present all visual, audio, and written information and results in accordance with scientific moral rules,
I refer to the related works in accordance with scientific norms in case of using others' works,
I cited all the works I cited as a source,
I did not make any distortions in the data used, and that I do not present any part of this thesis as another thesis study at this university or another university.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS ... I ABSTRACT ... III ÖZET... IV ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ... V FIGURES ... VI TABLES ... VII SYMBOLS AND ABBREVIATIONS ... VIII
1.INTRODUCTION ... 1
1.1.Background ... 1
1.2.Literature review ... 3
1.3.Abstract ... 6
1.4.Oil Production Worldwide ... 8
1.4.1.Development of world crude petroleum ... 9
1.4.2.Pipeline’s choice and oil transfer ... 10
1.4.3.Oil production in yemen ... 11
1.4.4.Importance of oil ... 13
2.DETERMINANTS OF INVESTMENT ... 15
2.1.Natural Determinations ... 15
2.1.1.Demography ... 15
2.1.2.Religion ... 15
2.1.3.History ... 15
2.1.4.Clans and tribalism ... 17
2.2.Economical And Political Determinations ... 17
2.2.1.Political regime ... 18
2.3.Legal Determinations ... 18
2.4.Alternatives Determinations Of Oil Production ... 19
2.4.1.Crude oil production trends ... 21
2.4.2.Importance of oil sector ... 21
2.5.Determinations Of Oil Transportation Models ... 22
2.6.Sustainability Determination ... 23
2.6.1.Environment ... 23
2.6.2.Business standards and social obligation ... 23
2.6.3.Human factor ... 24
3.DECISION MAKING WITH THE AHP ... 25
3.1.Introduction To Ahp Module Case Study ... 25
3.1.1.Ahp module of the study ... 26
3.2.Ahp Process ... 26
3.2.1.Utilizing AHP to pick better option of transportation ... 27
3.2.2.Checking the consistency ... 27
4.YEMEN CONTEXTUAL ANALYSIS FIELDS ... 29
4.1.Yemen Oil Export Terminals And Pipelines ... 30
4.1.1.Pipeline to rass issa port ... 31
4.1.2.Pipeline port of al shahr (al daba) ... 31
4.1.3.Pipeline to port (bir ali) ... 31
4.1.4.Pipeline to Aden refinery ... 32
4.2.Priorities Criteria Ranking Importance ... 32
5.TERM OF REFERENCES ... 41
5.1.Analytic Hierarchy Process (Ahp) ... 41
5.2.(Ahp) Logistic &Transport ... 41
5.3.Consistency Ratio ... 41
5.4.Elements Of Oil ... 41
5.5.Hazid ... 41
5.6.Risk ... 42
5.7.Oil Definition ... 42
6.CONCLUSION ... 43
REFERENCES ... 45
BIBLIOGRAPHY ... 47
M. Sc. Thesis
SELECTING THE BEST PIPELINE OF YEMEN OIL FIELDS AND TRANSPORTATION VIA AHP
Rasheeq Mohammed Ahmed FADHL Istanbul Commerce University
Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences Department of Industrial Engineering Supervisor Assist. Prof. Dr. Emin Başar BAYLAN
This study had been completed to Selecting the best Pipeline of Yemen oil fields and transportation via using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). To consider possible pipelines options from the different available oil production fields to the oil terminal locations. To carry out all the tasks needed and make cost estimates for the planning, installation and laying of the pipeline. Point out areas where surveys that are more comprehensive were required prior to the next design process. The pipeline routes have been chosen in terms of public safety, the integrity of the pipeline, the environmental effects and the consequences of leakage, with special consideration being paid to the following items :- Six alternatives to make pairwise comparisons via using AHP technique (1) Length and Distance (2) Land nature and uses (3) Risk Assessment (4) Cost of construction (5) Maintenance operation (6) Geopolitical according to four accessible criteria and alternatives select the best Pipeline as follow: - Pipeline to Safer Option (1), Pipeline to Al Shahr Option (2), Pipeline to Bir Ali Option (3) Pipeline to Aden Refinery Option (4). After applied all Pairwise examination and calculations came to the best selection and select the Pipeline to port (Bir Ali) block four that is Option (3). This study to identify possible pipeline routes from production fields to the oil terminal.
Keywords: Oil And Gas Pipeline İndustry, Pipeline Construction, Pipeline Route Selection, And Yemen Oil And Gas Pipelines.
Yüksek Lisans Tezi
YEMEN PETROL SAHALARINDA EN İYİ BORU HATTININ SEÇİLMESİ VE AHP ARACILIĞI İLE TAŞIMA
Rasheeq Mohammed Ahmed FADHL İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi
Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü
Endüstri Mühendisliği Anabilim Dalı Danışman: Dr. Öğr. Üyesi Emin Başar BAYLAN
2021, 47 Sayfa
Bu çalışma, Yemen petrol sahalarının En İyi Boru Hattının Seçilmesi ve Analitik Hiyerarşi Süreci (AHP) kullanılarak taşınması için tamamlanmıştır. Mevcut farklı petrol üretim alanlarından petrol terminal lokasyonlarına kadar olası boru hattı seçeneklerini değerlendirmek. Boru hattının planlanması, montajı ve döşenmesi için gereken tüm görevleri yerine getirmek ve maliyet tahminlerini yapmak. Bir sonraki tasarım sürecinden önce daha kapsamlı anketlerin gerekli olduğu alanları belirtin.
Boru hattı güzergâhları kamu güvenliği, boru hattının bütünlüğü, çevresel etkiler ve sızıntının sonuçları açısından seçilmiştir ve aşağıdaki maddelere özel önem verilmiştir: - AHP tekniği kullanarak ikili karşılaştırmalar yapmak için altı alternatif (1 ) Uzunluk ve Mesafe (2) Arazi yapısı ve kullanımları (3) Risk Değerlendirmesi (4) İnşaat maliyeti (5) Bakım operasyonu (6) Dört erişilebilir kritere ve alternatiflere göre jeopolitik, aşağıdaki gibi en iyi Boru Hattını seçer: - Daha Güvenli Seçeneğe Boru Hattı (1), Al Shahr Seçeneğine Boru Hattı (2), Boru Hattı'ndan Bir Ali'ye Seçenek (3) Aden Rafinerisine Geçiş Seçeneği (4). Tüm İkili inceleme ve hesaplamalar uygulandıktan sonra en iyi seçime geldi ve Seçenek (3) olan 4. bağlantı noktasına (Bir Ali) blok 4'ü seçin. Bu çalışma, üretim sahalarından petrol terminaline olası boru hattı rotalarını belirlemek için.
Anahtar Kelimeler: Petrol ve Gaz Boru Hattı Endüstrisi, Boru Hattı İnşaatı, Boru Hattı Güzergâh Seçimi ve Yemen Petrol ve Gaz Boru Hatları.
First, I would like to thank my Supervisor, Assist. Prof. Dr. Üyesi Emin Başar BAYLAN, for his helping me to overcome the difficulties, I faced during the study of the thesis and for his guidance and advice throughout this research.
Also, I would like to say Thank You, Istanbul Ticaret University family, for their warm welcome me to be a student at this university. In addition, I sincerely appreciate Turkey and its people for helping me to learn and live in their country. In addition, I want to thank Yemen oil and gas Company for giving me the data I used for this thesis.
Finally, I would like to show my gratitude and my love for my unique family for their love, kindness, and endless belief in me I would not be half the person I am today if they did not exist.
Rasheeq FADHL ISTANBUL, 2021
Fig.1.1. Maps Of All-Available Oil Transport Terminal ... 7
Fig.1.2. World Primary Demand (IEA.2011) ... 9
Fig.1.3. Pipelines Of Republic Of Yemen ... 11
Fig.1.4. Crude Oil Production –Yemen ... 13
Fig.2.1. Map Of Yemen Principle Of Oil... 21
Fig.3.1. The Analytical Hierarchy Process ... 25
Fig.3.2. AHP Module Of The Case ... 26
Fig.3.3. Decision Making Evaluation ... 28
Fig.4.1. Yemen Available Ports (1) ... 30
Fig.4.2. Yemen Available Ports (2) ... 31
Fig.4.3. Yemen Available Ports (3) ... 31
Fig.4.4. Yemen Available Ports (4) ... 32
Fig.4.5. Application Of AHP Oil And Gas Pipeline Selection ... 34
Fig.4.6. Risk Matrix Module ... 37
Table 1.1. All Available Oil Transport Terminal –Yemen ... 2
Table 1.2. Factors Involved In Petroleum Investment Legislation ... 7
Table 4.1. Data Of Expert’s Judgments ... 33
Table 4.2. Data Related Comparison Selection Best Pipeline ... 33
Table 4.3. Comparison Of The Six Criteria Used With Ahp ... 34
Table 4.4. Pairwise Comparison To Length And Distance ... 35
Table 4.5. Result Comparison Land Nature Uses ... 35
Table 4.6. Pairwise Comparison According To Land Nature And Uses ... 35
Table 4.7. Result Of Comparison Of Land Nature And Uses ... 36
Table 4.8. Comparison According To High Risk Assessment Matrix ... 37
Table 4.9. Result To Pairwise Comparison To Risk Assessment ... 37
Table 4.10. Result To Pairwise Comparison To Risk Assessment ... 38
Table 4.11. Pairwise Comparison To Cost Construction ... 39
Table 4.12. Result To Pairwise Comparison Cost Construction ... 40
Table 4.13. Result To Pairwise Comparison Geopolitical Parameters ... 40
Table 6.1. Final Decision To Select Best Pipeline ... 44
SYMBOLS AND ABBREVIATIONS
AHP Analytical Hierarchy Process ANP Analytical Network Process
CCA Community Selection Aggregation
CI Consistency Index
CR Consistency Ratio
CEIC Commercial Expert Economists and Analysts DSS Decision-Support Systems
EIA Engergy Information Admistration GHG Greenhouse Gases
HDI Human Development Index
IEA Internation Energy Agnecy
OPEC Organization of The Petroleum Exporting Countries PEPA Petroleum Exploration and Production Authority PSA Professional Services Agreement
MCDM Multi-Criteria Decision Making YOGC Yemen Oil And Gas Coorporation
Previous studies in the application of integrated decision-support coordinated selection in the oil pipeline industry uses Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) . Yemen's crude Oil: data was accounted for at 31.800 Barrel/Day, in Dec 2017. This records an expansion from the last number of 24.200 Barrel/Day, for Dec 2016.
Yemen's crude Oil. Data information is refreshed yearly, averaging 341.300 Barrel/Day, from Dec 1995 until 2017. Production was arrived at highest figures of 457.800 Barrel/Day, in 2001 and a record low of production figures 24.200 Barrel/Day, in 2016. Yemen's crude Oil: information stays dynamic status in Economic Information Center CEIC Data and is accounted by Association of the Oil Trading countries. The information is ordered under World trends in addition to Affiliation local Oil and Gas Part.
Yemen started delivering crude oil in 1986 at low levels and progressively expanded its production, arriving at its top in 2001, however started declining consistently after 2001 by about 6.8% every year on normal during 2001-2014 because of developing fields, restricted operations, and regular ruptures of oil pipelines that supported 77 attacks during 2012-2013, comparing with 61 attacks during the previous 20 years.
This had influenced oil refining, production and exporting process. Yemen crude oil production declined in 2015 by 76.8%, comparing to 2014, because of leaving international oil companies from Yemen and the suspension of crude oil export since April 2015.
Yemen had plans to produce 61.8 million barrels in 2015, yet the fundamental actual information shows that the complete crude oil production in 2015 added up to just 13.2 million barrels. Thus, the lost cost of total crude oil production is assessed at about USD 2.5 Billion in 2015 (excluding the expense of physical damage in the oil sector).
Petroleum production in Yemen declined consistently after topping in 2001; the country started delivering commercial amounts of flammable gas (LPG) for domestic uses and for export as LNG. This progress could enable the country to settle its economy even without a high oil export cost. ( Hilyard ,2008)
Table.1.1 all available oil transport terminal –Yemen.
Pipeline Rass Issa Port via safer Company Option (1)
This port is located on the Red Sea in hot areas as a suitable floating reservoir for networks of area 439, approximately 9 kilometers - Red Sea; its capacity is 3 million barrels, Rass-Issa Offshore Terminal, and Mareb-Rass Issa Pipeline.
Pipeline Port of Al Shahr (Al Daba) via Petro masila
company Option (2)
The port is located on the Arabian Sea with its presence in the Middle East; East Shabwah the port has 5 tanks with a total capacity of 5 thousand barrels, 145 km long and has a capacity of 300,000 barrels /day. It terminates at the Ash Shahir Export Terminal in the Gulf of Aden.
Pipeline to port (Bir Ali) via block four Company
This port is located on the Arabian Sea in the qualified area in the West Ayad area-Shabwah. Bir Ali pipeline. Shabwah-Bir Ali pipeline is 209.3 km long and terminates at the Bir Ali Terminal in the Gulf of Aden. It has a capacity of 135,000 barrels /day.
Pipeline to Aden Port Aden Refinery Option (4)
This port located at Aden city south of Yemen, located at Aden refinery area. Option 4 to transfer from block to Aden Refinery.
While replacing oil trade incomes with LNG send out incomes does not decrease the State dependence on its hydrocarbons. Crude Oil Production in Yemen stayed unchanged. at 16,000 barrels /day in December.2015 from 16,000 barrels /day in November of 2018.
Crude Oil Production in Yemen found the middle value of 281.16 000 barrels /day from 1994 until 2018, reached 466,000.29 barrels /day in February of 2001 and a record low of 11,000 barrels /day in January of 2017.Indeed assume the individual in question is just ready to determine neutral evaluations of these inclinations.
1.2. Literature Review
The Roads selection cross-country oil and gas pipelines is controlled by parameters such as the nearest distance between export and import points , ability to construction , lowest effects on the environmental overview , increasing capability and the chance of pipelines damages, all these parameters working together operationally and maintenance elements , considered the decision making system for pipelines roads selection with application of AHP , this technique is demonstrated as case of pipeline roads selection, from an India prospective via comparison of the shortest line right selection, and the high potential establishing effective of the project . (Gupta,1999)
It was Considered the concerned system of the oil pipline manufacture, Transportation of crude oil from oil fields to refineries and oil products after processing to consumers points. Therefore, the success process of such pipelines elaborated the performance of the entire projects. Choice of pipeline methods playing a measurable role when fabricate an effective transport system, as the life of the pipeline depending on its Landforms. The current exercise of roads selection for oil pipelines is controlled by elements such as the nearest distance, ability to construction, lowest effects on the environmental overview, despite the reduces expenses, it proving to be non-commercial depending on the cost consideration. The current research displays a roads selection model via (AHP), a multi- decision- making support. (Ogunlana,2001)
The current method of pipeline age monitoring, which required the whole pipeline to be checked at specific times. The model not only minimized the cost of maintenance oil pipelines, but also proposed efficient engineering and process philosophy, construction methodology and logical insurance rules The risk matrix based on uses (AHP), a multi-decision‐making technique, to identify the factors that caused damaged on specific department and analysis their results by assigning probability of risk criteria.( Dey,2001)
It was Proposed the owner evaluation of oil pipelines projects closely before investment approval is made of using market, technically and cost analysis. The market analysis determines pipelines productivity area and need points. Technical works identifies improved options and commercial and cost analysis. The result impact assessment justifying the selected option by identifying environmental and social topics. The assessment usually proposed options sites, implementation new manners, reviewing of technical and cost analysis. This issues via an integrated project evaluation. The model uses AHP, a multi- decision‐making technique. Then this model has been effective case of this application on whole oil pipeline projects in such area.( Prasanta,2004)
It was Clarified that AHP has many applications as documented in the decision support system review. The important of the decision in the oil pipeline works is depending on the industry size and nature. Globally, pipelines transport liquefied gas, crude oil, and products within distances through countries and penetrate borders to meet energy orders. Within USA, natural gas pipelines contain more than 2.4 million kilometers transport pipelines underground. Target of selecting the pipeline roads is link between the source of crude oil and gas to the final utility factories.
It is transparent that choosing the nearest and most direct way is always target for reasons for cost and expenditure, but there are too many other critical objectives participated in a road selection project and sometimes these goals maybe conflict, political, environmental, social, and economic, Geophysical, and regulatory factors interact to define the potential of the pipeline construction. (Nataraj,2005)
Turkey has an important geographical location in the world. Addition to it is most famous path connection from MEA to Europe to transport rich oil and gas sources.
Current projects in pipelines progressing considered an indicator for this purpose, in route determination operation, the criteria’s such as environmental, sociological, economical and safety have must been fully evaluated, While efficient systems have not been used for pipelines route selection in Turkey. Then, Analyst module can be used with high effective in the maximum and the best route selection of pipeline to decrease impact of environmental and construction financial, it should be modifying for user demands and new projects.( Yildirim,2007)
A risk assessment was used to study and check the best roads for constructing a gas pipeline in China. Two alternatives roads pipelines were nominated. The focus of the analysis was to improve an overall assessment that would help reduce ground degradation by economic construction activities, taking into analysis of the impact on human material and necessary resources and people. The environmental impact, the potential risk of an incident, and the financial for both alternatives were studied. The priority importance of the affect depends on the relation between importance and components quantity to be affected by the pipeline through both roads. Population density within the alternative roads was above than on the recommended one. Results of the analysis were sent to the ministry of Environmental, China and the pipeline project was conducted. (Guanghua,2011)
During the assessment phase of oil and gas development projects, too many calculation are developed and decisional makers needs to be aware about the most convenient approach which could be satisfying the project target.
Consideration of design can be fully improved, the options of alternatives is usually carried out via a risk matrix analysis: typically the significant ranking after hazard identifying.
In order control more detailed approach can be used AHP. This study describes how the best selection between several pipeline roads has been chosen. Risk assessment session to take privileges of the information of design specialists joining to distinguish sectors. then the optimum project alternative froall the engineering points of view, provided excellent justifying reason for this nomination.
Oil and gas pipelines are high assets that cross via both the environmental concerns and extensive population at constructed proposed areas. The pipeline damage may
have It could be great outcome for both the environmental people effects and nature itself. To maintain the integrity of oil and gas pipelines, inspection and maintenance operation must be controlled by practical policies and preventive and proactive maintenance based on the risk matrix. (Rehan,2016)
Analytical hierarchy process (AHP) is a dynamic calculation created by Dr. Saaty. It has numerous applications as reported in Selection decision support system. The significance of selections in the oil pipeline industry is reflected in the greatness and nature of the business. Around the world, pipelines transport flammable gas, crude oil, and completed oil-based goods over significant distances inside nations and across outskirts to address energy issues. Inside this proposition for selection to choose the ideal selection between multiband variable alternatives to mastermind pipeline for transportation oil securely with least expense from chosen to point in Shabwah production oil fields by utilizing AHP. (Saaty,2008)
In association with current oil export terminals and pipelines accessible routs in Yemen are the follwing listed with below figure to clarifying the whole available alternatives for oil transportation
Safer -Mareb Masila-Alshihr-Hadramout
Bir Ali-Shabwah Aden Refinery
Fig.1.1. Maps of the all-available oil transport terminal (Source: EIA.2019) In this study we trying to select the best way to build we attempting to choose the most ideal approach to fabricate another pipeline for the Shabwah area for oil transportation from Shabwah oil fields to trades securely with least expense by utilizing AHP modules for correlation and pair wise selection among alternatives and considering the measures of examination which was recorded with the accompanying: - Models of Pairwise Correlation as indicated by- Criteria of Pairwise Comparison-according to six criteria been selected.
Table.1.2 Factors involved in petroleum investment legislation-Yemen
Government and political system
Demography History Petroleum policy
diversify the source
Legal and judicial system Tribes and
Welfare The importance of safety
Business principles Environment Workers and employees
1.4. Oil Production Worldwide
Oil and gas will continue to be essential for global economic development and prosperity for decades to come; even with low-carbon, policies in place( Figure 1.2).
However, global concerns about climate change led to a focus on the amount of energy needed to produce the types of hydrocarbon-based fuels and non-traditional methods that continue to increase energy intensity in production. In the face of these challenges, the industry recognizes that the use of fossil fuels contributes to atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations (GHG), and that emissions should be reduced as much as possible.
Energy efficiency and conservation can contribute significantly to environmental protection and energy security. Most energy-saving capabilities rest with end users.
In addition to oil and gas production, the industry also uses oil and gas in its own operations, and efficiency can significantly reduce the impact of the industry. With the exhaustion of traditional hydrocarbon energy rescues, energy production from more sensitive and difficult environments has become more complex. By focusing efforts on energy efficiency, the industry strives to ensure the continued availability.
Significant challenges remain, particularly in the face of the increasing use of energy to exploit hard-to-reach crude oil bailouts and meet stricter fuel quality standards.
As responsible producers, the oil and gas industry aim to provide consumers with a high level of energy efficiency for mobility and energy, to help end users consume less fuel and promote rational energy use along the supply chain. Energy efficiency and maintenance vary clearly; Energy efficiency revolves around reducing the energy density of a process or activity so that less power is needed to provide the same product or service. This can be achieved by introducing more techniques that are efficient, equipment or processes. On the other hand, while energy conservation definitions vary, they are generally linked to culture, human behaviour, and operational procedures.
This usually means using less energy by reducing use (for example, turning off equipment when alternatives are available) or by eliminating unnecessary activities and loss of energy, rather than using less energy to achieve the same. Enhancing
energy efficiency is an important issue for oil and gas companies, which can contribute through changes in their operations, planning, and investments. There are many positive drivers for the industry because energy efficiency can improve productivity, reduce operating costs, and reduce environmental impacts.
Energy efficiency and maintenance can also extend the life of limited natural rescue operations keep energy affordable to consumers by reducing investment and operating costs to harness new energy rescues to meet growing demand.
Fig.1.2. World Primary Demand (Source: EIA.2011)
1.4.1. Development of world crude petroleum
Oil and gas are the world's most important energy sources. One thing we know for sure is that we need oil - currently about 90 million barrels of crude oil per day. Oil is used for many purposes other than fuel for energy or transportation. However, we constantly hear new and often conflicting expectations about potential resources and about the future of fossil fuels. The end of oil and gas production is not yet on the nearest time. However already well known is that the reservoirs will run out at some point, as far as oil is concerned, we consume four times the amount of oil discover in the new storage and fields . Hence, resources must be used reasonably. For this reason, oil heating is gradually replaced by other energy sources.
On the other hand, it will remain critical as raw materials for the chemical industry.
Industrialized countries will need smart strategies in the future to manage these valuable resources. November 30, 2016 agreement between OPEC countries and
some major non-OPEC producers to reduce oil production to stabilize world prices has translated into significant reductions in production in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Algeria, and to stable production in Russia and succeeded in raising world oil prices, which has incited non-OPEC countries such as Yemen, Canada, Kazakhstan and exempting OPEC countries from cuts such as Iran or Nigeria to increase production.
Iran's oil production rose by a third between 2015 and 2017, thanks to the end of international sanctions. On the contrary, crude oil production in China fell again to its lowest level since 2009, as low prices in 2016 pushed producers to cut investment in oil fields. (Hilyard ,2008)
1.4.2. Pipeline’s choice and oil transfer
Most possible alternatives to sidestep Hormuz are right now not operational. Just Saudi Arabia and the Emirates have pipelines that can dispatch crude petroleum outside of the Arab gulf and have extra pipeline ability to avoid the Waterway of Hormuz. Upon the finish of 2016, the complete accessible crude petroleum put pipeline limit from the two countries joined was reached at 6.6 million barrels /day, While the two countries consolidated had generally 3.9 million barrels /day of unused detour round limit .Saudi Arabia has the 1201 km Petrolane, otherwise called the East-West Pipeline, which directed into Saudi Arabia from its Abqaiq complex to the red sea.
The Petrolane framework comprises of two pipelines with an absolute introduced limit of about 4.8 million barrels /day. The 56-inch pipeline has a limit of 3 million b/d. The 48-inch pipeline had been formerly working as a gaseous liquefied pipeline, yet Saudi Arabia changed over it to an oil pipeline. The switch-expanded Saudi Arabia's extra oil pipeline ability to sidestep scape the Waterway of Hormuz from 1 million barrels /day to 2.8 million barrels /day, yet this volume is just feasible if the framework works at its full limit. In 2016, Saudi Aramco declared that it intends to grow the limit of the East-West pipeline to 7 million b/d, with a booked consummation by end-2018. Until this point, there has been little progress on the pipeline development.
Saudi Arabia additionally works the Abqaiq-Yanbu flammable gas fluids pipeline, which has a limit of 290,000 barrels /day. Emirates works the Abu Dhabi crude petroleum Pipeline (1.5 million barrels /day) that runs from Habshan (an assortment point for Abu Dhabi's coastal oil fields) to the port of Fujairah on the Inlet of Oman, which permits crude petroleum shipments to go around the Waterway of Hormuz.
The administration intends to build the limit of this pipeline to 1.8 million barrels /day .
Fig.1.3. Pipelines of Republic of Yemen (Source :PEPA.2013)
1.4.3. Oil Production in Yemen
Yemeni crude oil: Production was reported at 31,800 barrels per day in December 2017. This is an increase from the previous number of 24,200 barrels per day for December 2016. Yemeni crude oil: Production data is updated annually, with an average of 340,300 barrels per day from December 1995 to 2017, the data reached an all-time high of 456,900 barrels/day in 2001 and a record low of 24,200 barrels/day in 2016. Yemeni crude oil: Production data remain active in the Central and Eastern European Centre and have been reported by the Oil Export Organization. Countries.
The data is classified under the Trend plus Global Association Oil and Gas Sector.
Yemen's oil production is around 320,000 barrels per day and has not changed dramatically over the past few years.
The current production comes from safer Right fields in Mareb and the Canadian Occidental Masila field, both of which were discovered before the exploration boom
in the early 1990. Production from the Shabwah Block 4 fields, discovered by the Russians and operated by Nimr Petroleum, has been suspended for the time being.
The oil exploration scene is undergoing a major change . The great optimism about new discoveries in the late 1980s and early 1990s has now been diminished by the lack of success. During this period, most major oil companies signed land exploration agreements mainly in the Shabwah region, formerly run by The Russians. The conditions were exceptionally useful for the Yemeni government with high signature bonuses and heavy work programs. .( Salisbury,2011)
Many companies also paid large sums for the cost of previous exploration activities by the Russians These conditions have been agreed upon by the companies in the hope of making major oil discoveries in that region. Also signed agreements at the time for areas east of Shabwah towards the border with Oman. A major seismic work and exploratory drilling programme was implemented in these areas in the early 1990, but the results were disappointing. As a result, some large companies such as BP Sun and Shell withdrew from Yemen, while others, such as Occidental, have scaled back their operations.
However, some companies, such as Chevran, Amoco, Total, BHP, and British Gas, continue their temporary operations:
British Gas is currently the largest operator and includes a maritime area south of Socotra Island. Total made two small discoveries in The Paradise Block, just west of Shabwah and in the eastern region of Shabwah . Production from these boxes is likely to reach 30,000 barrels per day, using the current Mareb and Liquefied Pipelines. However, the overall lack of success means that re-evaluation of conditions is now necessary to attract smaller companies to take over the available space. There is currently particular interest in shabwa formerly held by Shell, where a small discovery was made. It is important to develop oil resources to attract more of these small businesses to take over the existing open blocks and continue exploration efforts for the long term. (PEPA,2013)
These companies will not provide the same level of conditions and work programs as major oil companies, but it is important to maintain exploration efforts in the country. The key to this is to offer more flexible terms, which are more suitable for
smaller discoveries, which are now the most likely scenario. Large companies are unlikely to take over this space. Perhaps the most interesting development in the oil and gas sector is the exploitation of the vast natural gas reserves that have been discovered. After lengthy discussions with Enron, Yamen Safar and Total, the government signed an agreement, in March this year, with Total as the first stage towards full realization Agreement on the development of the country's gas reserves.
The plan includes the use of some gas for domestic consumption and a liquefied natural gas plant. (Salisbury,2011)
The project will include a pipeline system and associated facilities on the coast to liquefy and export gas. Discussions on progress on this project are likely to continue for some time and be very complicated due to several questions such as gas ownership and the introduction of additional partners in the project. This large-scale project will cost $5-6 billion and will bring significant long-term benefits to the country. Another major project under discussion several years ago is the rehabilitation of the Aden refinery. For exploration and development. Even small- scale discoveries benefit the country, especially in current difficult economic conditions.
Fig.1.4. Crude oil production –Yemen 2006-2017(Source:YOGC.2018)
1.4.4. Importance of oil
Oil: the spirit of an industrialized country. Oil has become the most important source of energy in the world since the mid-fifties. Its elements support today's society, providing energy mainly to control industry, heat homes, give fuel to vehicles and airplanes, to transport goods and people everywhere around the world.
Health and security are important because they ensure that businesses, guests and customers success. Business environments, ignoring security and area of danger, may lose employees, and may increase costs and reduce gains.
Domestic: Oil and gas production is required for energy independence. Without production of oil and gas in Yemen, Yemen will immediately gracefully count on the weak economy. Moreover, when this happened, the domestic economy would be controlled by oil &gas prices .
2. DETERMINANTS OF INVESTMENT
2.1. Natural Determinations
Topographylly Yemen is situated in the Center East, at the southwestern corner of the Indian Landmass between Saudi Arabia and Oman. Toward the South, Yemen is limited by the Inlet of Aden and the Indian Ocean and toward the west by the Red sea and the Bab al-Mandeb waterway, one of the most dynamic transportation paths of exchange and oil transports on the planet. Yemen neighbors over the water are Eritrea, Djibouti, and Somalia.
Yemenis are prevalently Bedouin and talk Arabic. Ethnic minorities remember the Mahram for eastern Yemen and the island Socotra, who talk a variation of the antiquated Himyaritic language. The beachfront populace has African highlights, while in the region of Aden and the eastern regions, Somali, Indonesian, and Indian components can be followed. In the far north, there are still remainders of Jewish people group. A particular social minority bunch are the Akhdam (Muhamashin) in the seaside zones, who generally perform modest assignments and possess the most reduced social class in Yemen. Yemen's populace has nearly significantly increased since 1980 from 8.4 million to an expected 23.8 million today. (Approx. 221,410 as assessed in Jan .2012)around 45% of Yemenis are younger than 14, and around 69 percent of the populace lives in country territories.
Practically all Yemenis are Muslim. Even though no exact measurements exist, the extraordinary share of Yemenis are considered to hold fast to the Shafi school, which is important for Sunni Islam; 25-30% are Zaydish, a moderate Shia.A little of Jews, less than 501 lives in and around Amran in the north, generally Yemen additionally a center point of Sofism . (William,2003)
Yemen history and development ranges more than 2800 years. Once in the past known as Felix Arabia. Yemen was the area of various old realms. Generally, Yemen continued broad contacts trade exchange and movement with numerous different
nations, Africa, India, and the Far East. Yemen became Islamized in mid seventh century Promotion and was along these lines controlled by progressive traditions of Imams from the Zaydi order. In the sixteenth century, and again in the nineteenth century, portions of previous North Yemen went under the rule of the Ottomans. At the point when the Stool Domain was disintegrated in 1918, the Zaydi Imams of the Al-Mutawakkil line controlled North Yemen until the transformation in 1962,and the new republicans, upheld by Egyptian soldiers. (William,2003)
It was not until 1970 that all gatherings perceived. Previous South Yemen was for quite some time represented by different Islamic Sunni Sultanates. In 1839, England held onto the port of Aden and made it a Crown Settlement, while they finished agreements with the Rulers and clans from the Hadramout in the east. By 1965, the greater part of the ancestral 'protectorates' joined Aden to frame the English supported League of South Arabia. Trade out the following two years, two groups - the Marxist Public Freedom Front and the Front for the Freedom of Involved South Yemen - matched for power. By the mid-year of 1967, was in charge of most territories, which denoted the finish of the Organization and of English presence in Yemen.
In November 1967, the Individuals Republic of Yemen, containing Aden and South Arabia, was broadcasted. Under Marxist impact, the nation changed its name to the Individual Vote based Republic of Yemen in December 1970, by 1972 the two Yemen's were in open clash. A. Al-Ghashmi, in June 1978. After a month, the Constituent Public Gathering chose Lieutenant Colonel A.A.Saleh as the new Yemen Specialists. Recharged battling broke out mid-1979, yet in spring, the heads of condition of the two Yemen consented to an arrangement vowing unification. On May 22, 1990, the two Yemen officially joined as the Republic of Yemen.
2.1.4. Clans and tribalism
Ancestral association is a profound established part of social character in Yemen.
Verifiably, Yemen's ancestral populace can be found in the northern and eastern territories, where three significant and ancestral confederations overwhelm: Hashed Bakil, and the more vulnerable Madhhaj. The western and southern scene of Yemen is not ancestral, but instead comprises of landowners and workers. Between one- quarter and one-portion of Yemenis, self-distinguish as having an ancestral connection, even the individuals who do not really have a place with a particular clan. Tribalism fills in as a main consideration in political and social association, and ancestral standard laws unequivocally influence enactment execution and question settlement. Six Monetary Advancement. (UN Publication,2014)
Yemen is one of the most unfortunate and least created nations in the area. Oil sends out create about 69% of the public salary and government incomes, yet it is assessed that the oil stores will be exhausted inside 10 years. Yemen additionally has enormous stores of flammable gas found generally in the western aspect of the nation. The launch of Aden's new holder port in 1999, the creating fishery, and the on-going advancement of a mechanical free zone in Aden are developing supporters of Yemen economy.
2.2. Economical and Political Determinations
Yemen is one of the most unfortunate and least created country in the district. Oil trades produce about 69% of the public salary and government incomes; however, it is assessed that the oil stores will be drained inside 10 years. Yemen likewise has huge stores of gaseous petrol found generally in the western aspect of the country.
The launch of Aden's new holder port in 1999, the creating fishery, and the on-going improvement of a modern free zone in Aden are developing supporters of Yemen's economy. Notwithstanding, most of Yemenis are means agriculturalist Government.
2.2.1. Political Regime
The two expresses that presently contain current Yemen had strongly differentiating political frameworks. In North Yemen policymaking had been in the possession of a generally dynamic military tip top who worked intimately with an assortment of regular citizen technocrats, major ancestral pioneers, and other customary notables.
South Yemen's political framework and economy had been founded on Marxist philosophy; – the main legitimate political association – decided government strategy and practiced authority over the state regulatory framework, the council, and the military. The two states consolidated in one country.
Yemen was formally pronounced on May 22, 1990. January 2011 acquired progressive changes this political impasse. Mass uprisings against the system, taking motivation from the flare-up of Arab Spring troubled somewhere else, joined with outer weight from the Inlet Collaboration Gathering and others, eventually constrained Yemen president to step down. On 21 February 2012, previous VP was chosen as new Yemen president and the transmit period continue until date.
2.3. Legal Determinations
Diversify the wellspring of income by- Increasing demonstrated stores to adjust decreases in existing fields. Promoting new regions for explorations. Evaluating PSA terms and methods to oblige the Global Oil Industry prerequisites. Introducing assessment and customs exclusions and free exchange of assets and income.
Encouraging the private division to assume a significant part in all phases of hydrocarbon improvement.
Transportation Administrations A drop organization of Blacktop and soil streets connects all major and auxiliary urban areas. Open and privately owned businesses give top of the line everyday mentor administrations between significant urban communities. Taxi stations likewise offer their types of assistance nonstop.
Legal Framework Yemen has a complex lawful and legal history, the formal legitimate framework in Yemen has formed together group of law. Considering the codification cycle from the 1970s onwards, Yemeni Kanoon consolidates
components from sharia, standard/ancestral laws, passages from Egyptian and other Bedouin laws, and worldwide standards.
These different components can be found in Yemen's major codes, Constitution, Individual , Common Code, Criminal Code, and Mediation Code. (UN Publication,2014).Even though one could discuss together legitimate corpus, Yemeni law despite everything contains various printed ambiguities and exclusions, which leave space for judges to depend on non-classified lawful sources to help their selection s. In the interim, the pre-Islamic ancestral standard standards, casual intercession, and assertion methods, keep on comprehending the real greater part of contentions and other lawful issues, in despite state-gave laws to restrict and direct the utilization of ancestral standard standards.
These formal, casual, current, and conventional standards and entertainers meet up in a constant and complex dynamic of communication. Considering that just about 80 percent of Yemenis are not close enough for the official courts, or for different reasons hold fast to ancestral standard principles or casually regulated Islamic standards, state law is not the preeminent law in Yemen, neither successfully, nor in the impression of most Yemenis.
As indicated by the Assembled Countries, in 2005 Yemen positioned 153 out of 177 nations on the human development index a ratio of future, instruction, and way of life. Yemen had the minimal HDI positioning among the Bedouin states. The principle social help program is the Social Government assistance Store, at first settled to make up for decreases in monetary appropriations. (UN Publication,2014)
2.4. Alternatives Determinations of Oil Production
The crude petroleum production and condensed flammable gas trades declined by 76.8% and 80.3% separately in 2015 contrasted with 2014. The lost open-door cost of crude petroleum production and LNG trades is assessed at about D2.5 billion and D1.6 billion individually in 2015. Oil refining in the Aden Treatment facility was suspended, oil production in Mareb Processing plant dropped by 4.8% and fuel imports diminished by 65.3%, bringing about a shortage of fuel flexibly in the neighborhood market.
The fuel deals of the Yemen Oil Products Distribution Company (YOPDC) fell by about 64.2% in 2015, joined by a drop in deals of the cooking gas by 18.5%, prompting an extraordinary fuel emergency. Seriousness of the fuel emergency differed starting with one region then onto the next and from one segment to the next. For instance, Mareb governorate was less influenced by the fuel emergency.
Fuel deals of YOPDC to the force plants, aircrafts companies and concrete production lines fell by 76%, 80.8% and 81.8% separately in 2015.
Fuel and cooking gas costs hit record levels in 2015. Although these costs decline during the primary quarter of 2016, they stayed more than twofold contrasted with the pre-emergency levels. Fuel costs were the most notable in Taiz governorate.
Gross domestic product of the oil and gas area shrank by about 75.7%, adding to a drop in the Gross domestic product per capita income by about 36.1% in 2015. The decrease in oil and gas sends out by about 84.5% in 2015 about an absence of unfamiliar trade, decay of the public money and higher expansion and neediness rates. Oil and gas incomes of the state open financial plan have declined by D3.7 billion out of 2015.
Therefore, the spending plan had to stop most of its use things, including the suspension of the money help disbursal to poor people and decreasing the operational expenses of the fundamental social administrations. The fuel emergency has denied individuals from getting to water and food administrations, Ladies and kids bear the weight of conveying water on their back to the house. Administrations of the essential medical care and open clinics have been troubled too . About 88,141 gas chambers have been destroyed and 18 fuel and corner stores continued incomplete or complete harm .
Fig.2.1. Map of Yemen pipelines of oil (Source :PEPA.2013)
2.4.1. Crude oil production trends
Yemen began delivering raw petroleum in 1986 at low levels and slowly expanded its production, arriving at its top in 2001, yet began declining consistently after 2001 by about 6.8% every year on normal during 2001-2014 because of developing fields, and continuous damage of oil framework that supported 79 attacks during 2012- 2013, 62 assaults during the previous 20 years. This had influenced oil refining, production and sending out exercises. Yemen's crude petroleum production declined in 2015 by 76.8%, despite with 2014, because of the scape of oil companies from Yemen and the suspension of raw petroleum trades since April 2015.
2.4.2. Importance of oil sector
Yemen has demonstrated stores of oil adding up to 3 billion barrels and 18.212 trillion cubic feet of essential gas holds. Starting at 2014, the oil division (oil and gas) assumed a major function in the cash movement and financing the improvement cycle in Yemen, contributing 24.1% of Gross domestic product, 83.3% of the all-out product fares and 44.2% of the all-out open spending incomes.
The oil and gaseous petrol send out are the most significant wellspring of unfamiliar cash that fortifies the unfamiliar trade holds, money the food and non-food imports and supports the conversion scale security. In 2015, foreign oil and gas operators withdrew from Yemen. Subsequently, all production and fares of crude petroleum
and LNG in Yemen have been completely suspended since April 2015 and the world oil costs weakened fundamentally. Oil refining tasks in the Aden Processing plant were trouble and a serious fuel emergency has happened. This has led to negative thinking about financial indicators and balances then directly contributed to the difficult lives of many people
2.5. Determinations of Oil Transportation Models
Diversity of a transportation mode affects the competency of the whole coordination capacity of this sector. The way toward choosing the fitting transportation mode is subsequently a significant business selection. In transportation works, the primary rules to be research ways to develop more attendant: the cost, speed, security, availability, dependability, ecological innovation, and the adaptability of transportation. Transportation speed is identified with the methods for transportation and means the time term between the two areas that materials are to be shipped. The luxury of transportation but suggests the arriving objective with no harm.
Openness and transparency are another rule to be considered for the determination of transportation mode. Availability to an area can be seen dependent on schedule or expenses for transport, which in addition to other things are chosen by the limitation of the urban areas, foundations, and population, just like the portability of people and goods. There are five fundamental transportation modes utilized in coordination.
These are roadway, railroad, stream, pipeline, and aviation route. All have various points of interest just as drawbacks.
It is anything but a compelling and practicable transportation mode aside from transportation of crude petroleum and flammable gas. Its availability is restricted.
Transporters just straightforwardly found neighboring the pipeline could utilize this transportation mode,(Iqbal,2016).Truck’s transportation Vehicles utilized on interstates have their own capacity units to move their heaps.
In this way, they can straightforwardly convey and ship payload to the accepting party. Then again, weighty traffic and negative climate conditions may bring about various disappointments on vehicles, and resulting deferrals may happen in transportation time, which is mean difficulties in dependability regarding the travel
time. For a given path, dependability of a transporter is straight forwardly identified with its usable viability and may change depend on its assigned path road because of their serious suspension frameworks. In Yemen, the general expense of roadway transportation is multiple times not exactly the expense of aviation route transportation, while multiple times more costly than that of ocean transportation and multiple times more costly than that of railroad transportation ( Yang,1997).
2.6. Sustainability Determination
The significance of Sustainability is the need activities distinguished in this study are intended to give direction and move oil and gas companies to make a move and work together and push the three destinations of the supportable energy ecological, social, and economy, which considered real need of sustainability importance.
Carefully consider the potential environmental impact of the exercises and how nearby networks might be affected during the life of the project. Features. Initiation of work with nature-based activities to offset emissions of ozone-depleting substances while improving functionality of adjacent networks and protecting biodiversity. Volume losses of operational spills have been recorded. In the new patterns, all departments have adopted a balance plan for biodiversity from intent to follow all relevant natural guidelines, to continually improve implementation, and to prepare for future difficulties and openings. (Saaty,2008)
2.6.2. Business standards and social obligation
Oil companies can think back on a long history of working together in a socially dependable manner and making advantage for society. The rules for these exercises are the United Nation on Worldwide Minimal, the UN Core values for Business and Common liberties, and the UN Manageable Advancement Objectives. By 2025, oil companies will survey its partner discourse at all areas as per the UN's ability measures and train workers in basic liberties and business morals issues. Consistence with business standards additionally should be guaranteed.( Iqbal ,2016)
2.6.3. Human Factor
Oil companies think it should be the path to their prosperity. Diverse diversity is a high need, which is why the emphasis is on similarly arranged measures there.
Specifically, oil companies are seeking to increase women's representation at board level to 25%, at any rate from the current level of 18%. Measures to achieve this goal include management programs and training (Cavit,2017).
3. DECISION MAKING WITH THE AHP
3.1. Introduction to AHP Module Case Study
Analytic hierarchy process measure is a dynamic strategy created during the 1970s by mathematician Thomas l. Saaty. Logical pecking order is one of multi rules dynamic technique that was initially improved. To put it clearly, it is a technique to get ratio scales from combined correlations. (AHP) is one of multi rules dynamic technique that was initially improved by prof. Thomas l. Saaty. To put it clearly, it is a technique to get ratio scales from matched examinations. The information can be acquired from genuine estimation, for example, value, weight and so forth, or from abstract assessment, for example, fulfillment sentiments and inclination powerful apparatus for managing complex dynamic, and may help the leader to set needs and settle on the best selection. By decreasing complex selection s to a progression of pairwise correlations, and afterward combining the outcomes, the AHP assists with catching both emotional and target parts of a selection. ( Saaty,2008).
Fig.3.1. Analytic Hierarchy Process
3.1.1. AHP module of the study
Fig.3.2 AHP module of the case study
3.2. AHP Process
The AHP is designed to solve complex problems involving multiple criteria. The AHP measure is a dynamic strategy created during the 1970s by mathematician Thomas l. Saaty; logical pecking order is one of multi rules dynamic technique that was initially improved. To put it clearly, it is a technique to get ratio scales from combined correlations. (AHP) is one of multi rules dynamic technique that was initially improved by prof. Thomas l. Saaty. To put it clearly, it is a technique to get ratio scales from matched examinations. Information can be obtained from genuine estimation, for example, value, weight and so forth or from abstract assessment, for example, fulfillment sentiments and inclination.
AHP permit some little irregularity in judgment since human is not generally steady.
The ratio scales are gotten from the vital Eigen vectors and the consistency file is gotten from the primary Eigen esteem. Simply need to peruse on and toward the end will comprehend. Along these lines, the guess is very acceptable. Hence, the total of Eigen vector is not one. At the point when standardized an Eigen vector, at that point get a need vector. The whole of need vector is one. AHP assists with catching both emotional and target parts of a selection. AHP fuses a valuable strategy for checking the consistency of the leader's assessments, subsequently lessening the inclination in AHP.(Saaty.2008)
3.2.1. Utilizing AHP to pick better option of transportation
The best way to select good option between multiband variable options to arrange pipelines for transportation petroleum safety by using AHP. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), introduced by Thomas Saaty (1980) is an effective tool for dealing with complex decision-making, and may aid the decision maker to set priorities and make the best decision. By reducing complex decisions to a series of pairwise comparisons, and then synthesizing the results, the AHP helps to capture both subjective and objective aspects of a decision. In addition, the AHP incorporates a useful technique for checking the consistency.
3.2.2. Checking the consistency
At the point when numerous pairwise examinations are played out, a few irregularities may regularly emerge. One model is the accompanying, accept that three rules are thought of the leader assesses that the primary model is somewhat more significant than the subsequent standard, while the subsequent measure is marginally more significant than the third basis.
Its clear irregularity emerges if the assessesment unintentionally that the third basis is similarly or more significant than the principal rule. Then again, a slight irregularity emerges if the leader assesses that the principal basis is additionally marginally more significant than the third rule.
A reliable assessment would be, for example, that the principal basis is a higher priority than the third measure.
Example: - λ max =3.019 n=3, RI=0.58
010 . 1 0
3 3 019 . 3 1
n λ n
. 58 0 . 0
010 . 0 RI
λ n CI max
consistency index (CI), consistency ratio (CR)
Fig.3.3. Decision Maker’s Evaluations, Making Process.
4. YEMEN CONTEXTUAL ANALYSIS FIELDS
Even though Yemen is certainly not a significant hydrocarbon maker comparative with a few different countries in the Middle East region, the nation has adequate oil and flammable gas assets for both local interest and fares. Meanwhile, Yemen's troublesome security condition affected the production and transport of those assets.
In Oil and Gas Tasks Elective Determination utilizing AHP during the selection period of Oil and Gas extends, a few arrangements are created before Top managerial staff endorse, the top administration should be educated about the most encouraging arrangement, which could be chosen to accomplish the undertaking objectives.
Considering that not for all the arrangements the plan can be completely improved , the elective determination is regularly helped out subjective and generally emotional examination: normally the criticality positioning after assessment risk to defeat the vulnerabilities of this operation a more itemized and target approach can be utilized:
the (AHP). This paper depicts how the best option against a few seaward/inland pipeline projects has been chosen .The AHP has been applied soon after the assessment risk meeting to exploiting information related to the advantages of the plan having a place with various controls.
This procedure gives full comparison between various alternatives using numerically select the best undertaking elective from all the specialized perspectives, giving clear vision to this decision. At last, straightforward "advantages to costs ratios"
examination, likewise, the costs, intentionally put particularly for the advantages of the selections are evaluated, are remembered for the operation and the most encouraging arrangement can be distinguished.
The AHP is a standout amongst other known and generally utilized numerical dynamic process. The model utilizes human judgment to look at selection is considering changed variables, considering pairwise examination (How significant is A comparative with B?)
The AHP is an incredible and adaptable dynamic apparatus for complex, multi-rules issues. It enables leaders to pick the best other option, giving supports to their decision. The AHP introduced in this paper indicated to pipeline option determination from another seaward stage to current onshore oil terminal. To recognize different actionable sites. To study potential pipeline options from the recognized sites to the oil terminal. (Saaty,2008).
To carry out all necessary process to implement the plan, develop and lay the pipeline. To call attention to territories where more point-by-point reviews were required preceding the following plan stages.- The pipeline has been chosen having respect to the open security, the pipeline uprightness, the ecological effect, and the outcomes of break of liquid, focusing on the accompanying things. Topography and geography (seabed properties, soil properties, blocks, seismic action). Environment (earth touchy territory, region of regular protection intrigue, natural conditions).
Constructability availability, outsider necessities, restricted development period, neighbourhood imperatives. (Benuccia,2014)
4.1. Yemen Oil Export Terminals and Pipelines
Yemen has an incorporated network of pipelines for transport of the crude petroleum, flammable gas, water, and salt delivered three focal territories. This 1068 km network associates with four longer pipelines that transport oil to significant terminals. The 423 km Mareb-Rass Issa pipeline is the longest of the local pipelines, shipping, and oil from the Mareb bowl to the Ra's Isa terminal.
Fig.4.1. Yemen available ports (Source :PEPA.2013)
4.1.1. Pipeline to Rass Issa Port
This port is situated on the Red Sea in hot zones as an appropriate Rass Issa Offshore Terminal and Mareb-Rass Issa Pipeline. The Mareb-Rass Issa Pipeline is 434 km long and has a limit of 280,000 barrels /day.
Fig.4.2. Yemen available ports -2-(Soucre :PEPA.2013)
4.1.2. Pipeline Port of Al Shahr (Al Daba)
The port is situated on the Arabian Sea with its essence in the Middle East. The port has five tanks with a complete limit of five thousand barrels.
4.1.3. Pipeline to port (Bir Ali)
This port is located on the Arabian Sea in the qualified area of Shabwah in the West Ayad area in 1990. Bir Ali Terminal and Shabwah-Bir Ali pipeline.
Fig.4.3. Yemen available ports -3(Soucre :PEPA.2013)
4.1.4. Pipeline to Aden Refinery
Overseas operations at the Aden refinery, including transport to international destinations. This port located at Aden city south of Yemen, located at Aden refinery area. Option four to transfer from field to Aden refinery .
Fig.4.4. Yemen available ports-proposal (Soucre :PEPA.2013) 4.2. Priorities Criteria Ranking Importance
AHP experts’ comments about criteria judgments, assign a relative weight to each criterion, based on how important that criterion is to the situation. This can be done in two ways: By distributing 100 points among the criteria, based on expert’s team discussion and consensus. By each member assigning weights to max 500 for all five experts , then the numbers for each criterion for a composite team weighting.
(Construction Engineers Experts, Safety Experts, maintenance operation experts, civil engineers' experts, and Social relation experts) –AHP recommended proposed that following weight for the current selected criteria.
Table.4.1. Data Of Expert’s Judgments Experts Judgments
Civil Social Total W%
distance 15 13 16 13 10 67 13.4%
and uses 6 5 13 7 3 34 6.8%
assessment 30 42 25 17 25 138 27.6%
construction 37 27 31 46 49 189 37.8%
operation 6 6 10 10 5 37 7.4%
parameter’s 6 7 5 7 8 35 7.0%
100 100 100 100 100 500 100%
AHP selection from multi-criteria with available options of petroleum from Shabwah region, 15 pairwise comparison(s).
Table.4.2. Six cretieria
Pairwise Comparison-according to length and distance (1) Pairwise Comparison-according to Land nature and uses (2) Pairwise Comparison-according to Risk assessment (3) Pairwise Comparison-according to Cost of construction (4) Pairwise Comparison-according to Maintenance operation (5) Pairwise Comparison-according to Geopolitical parameters (6)