• Sonuç bulunamadı

Büyüme teorileri çerçevesinde eğitim ve sağlık göstergeleri ile ekonomik büyüme ilişkileri

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2021

Share "Büyüme teorileri çerçevesinde eğitim ve sağlık göstergeleri ile ekonomik büyüme ilişkileri"

Copied!
90
0
0

Yükleniyor.... (view fulltext now)

Tam metin

(1)

T. C.

6$.$5<$h1ø9(56ø7(6ø 626<$/%ø/ø0/(5(167ø7h6h

%h<h0(7(25ø/(5ød(5d(9(6ø1'((öø7ø0

9(6$ö/,.*g67(5*(/(5øø/((.2120ø.

%h<h0(ø/øù.ø/(5ø

<h.6(./ø6$16 7(=ø

$KPHW*|NoH$.32/$7

(QVWLW$QDELOLP'DOÕøNWLVDW

Te]'DQÕúPDQÕ: Yrd. 'Ro'UAli KABASAKAL

TEMMUZ 2012

(2)
(3)

BEYAN

Bu tezin yazÕOmasÕQGD bilimsel ahlak kurallarÕna uyuldu÷unu, baúkalarÕQÕQ eserlerinden yararlanÕOmasÕ durumunda bilimsel normlara uygun olarak DWÕIWD EXOXQXOGX÷XQX, kullanÕlan verilerde herhangi bir tahrifat yapÕOmDGÕ÷ÕQÕ tezin herhangi bir NÕVmÕQÕn EX Qiversite veya baúka bir Qiversitedeki bDúka bir tez oalÕúmasÕ olarak sunulmadÕ÷ÕnÕbeyan ederim.

$KPHW*|NoH$.32/$7 26.07.2012

(4)

g16g=

(NRQRPLQLQ X]XQ G|QHPOL E\PH ND\QDNODUÕQÕQ EHOLUOHQPHVL HNRQRPLN E\PH

NXUDPFÕODUÕQÕQ]HULQGH|QHPOHGXUGX÷XELUNRQXGXU8]XQG|QHPOLVUGUOHELOLUELU

HNRQRPLN E\PH\H XODúPDN EWQ GQ\D ONHOHULQLQ HQ WHPHO HNRQRPLN

KHGHIOHULQGHQGLU%XoDOÕúPDLVHHNRQRPLNE\PHQLQX]XQG|QHPOLEHOLUOH\LFLOHULQLQ

HNRQRPLN E\PH ]HULQGHNL HWNLOHULQLQ WHVSLW HWPHN EX GH÷LúNHQOHULQ HWNLVLQLQ

E\NO÷Q EHOLUOHPHN YH VD÷OÕNOÕ ELU E\PHQLQ VD÷ODQDELOPHVL \ROXQGD |QHPOL

SROLWLND\RUXPODUÕYH|QHULOHULVXQPDNDPDFÕ\OD\D]ÕOPÕúWÕU

7H]oDOÕúPDPVUHVLQFHEDQDGHVWHNOHULQLHVLUJHPH\HQKHUNHVHWHúHNNUHGHULP%DúWD

WH] \D]ÕP VUHVLQFH oHúLWOL |QHULOHUL\OH WH]LQ úHNLOOHQPHVLQGH |QHPOL NDWNÕVÕ EXOXQDQ

GH÷HUOL GDQÕúPDQÕP <UG 'Ro'U $OL .$%$6$.$/¶D WHúHNNU HGHULP $\UÕFD \LQH

WH]L \D]DUNHQ NDUúÕODúWÕ÷ÕP ]RUOXNODUGD YHUGLNOHUL PDQHYL GHVWHNOH PRWLYDV\RQXPX

]LQGHWXWPDPDYHVLOHRODQGH÷HUOLDUDúWÕUPDJ|UHYOLVLDUNDGDúODUÕPÕQKHUELULQHWHúHNNU

ederim.

6RQ RODUDN EDQD HYOLOL÷LPL]LQ EDúÕQGDQ EHUL PDGGL-PDQHYL GHVWH÷LQL HVLUJHPH\HQ

VHYJLOLHúLPHYHGQ\D\DJHOPHVL\DúDPDVHYLQFLPLELUNDWGDKDDUWÕUPDPDYHVLOHolan VHYJLOLR÷OXPDWHúHNNUELUERUoELOLULP

$KPHW*|NoH$.32/$7 26 Temmuz 2012

(5)

i

ødø1'(.ø/(5

KISALTMALAR ... øøø ù(.ø//ø67(6ø ... ø9 7$%/2/ø67(6ø ... V g=(7 ... 9ø SUMMARY ... 9øø

*ø5øù ... 1

%g/h0%(ù(5ø6(50$<(.$95$0,9(7$5ø+ø6h5(d7((/( $/,1,ù, ... 6

%HúHUL6HUPD\H.DYUDPÕ... 6

%HúHUL6HUPD\HQLQ7DULKVHO6UHoWH(OH$OÕQÕúÕ ... 7

%g/h0(.2120ø.%h<h0(9(%(ù(5ø6(50$<(02'(//(5ø ... 17

2.1.ENRQRPLN%\PH0RGHOOHUL ... 17

2.1.1. SRORZ%\PH0RGHOL ... 17

0RGHOLQ7HPHO<DSÕVÕ ... 17

1HRNODVLNhUHWLP)RQNVL\RQX ... 18

2.1.2. Mankiw-Romer-:HLO0RGHOL %HúHUL6HUPD\H'DKLO(GLOPLú6RORZ0RGHOL ... 24

2.1.3. Mincer Modeli ... 26

2.1.4. Bloom-Canning-Sevilla Modeli ... 27

2.1.5. Lucas Modeli ... 28

2.1.6. AK Modeli ... 31

2.1.7. Arrow-5RPHU0RGHOL<DSDUDNg÷UHQPH%LOJLQLQ<D\ÕOPDVÕ9H%\PH 34 %g/h06$ö/,.9((öø7ø0ø1(.2120ø.%h<h0(</(2/$1 ø/øù.ø6ø ... 38

6D÷OÕN(NRQRPLN%\PHøOLúNLVL ... 38

6D÷OÕN(NRQRPLN%\PHøOLúNLVL ... 38

(6)

ii

6D÷OÕN-(NRQRPLN%\PHøOLúNLVLøOHøOJLOL$PSLULNdDOÕúPDODU ... 39

(÷LWLP± (NRQRPLN%\PHøOLúNLVL ... 43

(÷LWLP± (NRQRPLN%\PHøOLúNLVL ... 43

(÷LWLPLQ(NRQRPLN'H÷HUL ... 45

(÷LWLPLQ(NRQRPLN5ROQHøOLúNLQ<DNODúÕPODU ... 46

%HúHUL6HUPD\H<DNODúÕPÕ... 46

3.2.3.2. Kuyruk Hipotezi (Queue Hypothesis) ... 47

3.2.3.3. Eleme Hipotezi (Screening Hypothesis)... 47

øNLOLøúJF3L\DVDODUÕ .XUDPÕ ... 48

(÷LWLP- (NRQRPLN%\PHøOLúNLVLøOHøOJLOL$PSLULNdDOÕúPDODU ... 48

%g/h0(.2120(75ø. UYGULAMA ... 51

4.1. Ekonometrik Analiz ... 51

4.1.1.Panel Veri Analizi ... 51

4.1.2. Ekonometrik Model ... 51

3DQHO%LULP.|N7HVWOHUL ... 52

3DQHO(úEWQOHúPH7HVWOHUL ... 56

3DQHO'2/6YH)02/6<|QWHPOHUL ... 58

6218d ... 66

KAYNAKLAR ... 72

g=*(d0øù ... 79

(7)

iii

KISALTMALAR ABD : $PHULND%LUOHúLN'HYOHWOHUL

AR-GE : $UDúWÕUPDYH*HOLúWLUPH

DOLS : Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares FMOLS : Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares

*6<ø+ : *D\UL6DIL<XUWLoL+DVÕOD

LCAP : *D\UL6DIL6DELW6HUPD\H2OXúXPXQXQ'R÷DO/RJDULWPDVÕ LED : (÷LWLP+DUFDPDODUÕQÕQ'R÷DO/RJDULWPDVÕ

LGDP : *D\UL6DIL<XUWLoL+DVÕODQÕQ'R÷DO/RJDULWPDVÕ LLIF : 'R÷XúWD<DúDP%HNOHQWLVLQLQ'R÷DO/RJDULWPDVÕ

OECD : Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development PDOLS : Panel Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares

POLS : Panel Ordinary Least Squares VAR : Vector Autoregressive Regression ADF : Augmented Dickey Fuller Test PP : Phillips-Perron Test

(8)

iv

ù(.ø//ø67(6ø

ùHNLO : 1HRNODVLN0RGHOGH'HQJHOL%\PH<ROX«««««««« 21 ùHNLO : 1HRNODVLN0RGHOGH<DNÕQVDPD«««««««««««« 22

ùHNLO : .RúXOOX<DNÕQVDPD«««««««««««««««««« 23

ùHNLO : $.0RGHOLQGHdÕNWÕ%\PHVL«««««««««««« 32 ùHNLO : $.0RGHOL)HUW%DúÕQDdÕNWÕ%\PHVL««««««««« 33

(9)

v

7$%/2/ø67(6ø

Tablo 1 : /*'36HULVLLoLQ3DQHO%LULP.|N7HVWOHUL««««««««« 53 Tablo 2 : /&$36HULVLLoLQ3DQHO%LULP .|N7HVWOHUL««««««««« 54 Tablo 3 : /Q('6HULVLLoLQ3DQHO%LULP.|N7HVWOHUL««««««««« 55 Tablo 4 : //,)6HULVLLoLQ3DQHO%LULP.|N7HVWOHUL««««««««« 56 Tablo 5 : 3HGURQL(úEWQOHúPH7HVWL6RQXoODUÕ««««««««««« 57 Tablo 6 : .DR(úEWQOHúPH7HVWL 6RQXoODUÕ«««««««««««« 57 Tablo 7 : -RKDQVHQ)LVKHU3DQHO(úEWQOHúPH7HVWL6RQXoODUÕ««««« 58 Tablo 8 : *HOLúPHNWH2ODQhONHOHUøoLQ3DQHO'2/6YH)02/65HJUHV\RQ

6RQXoODUÕ«««««««««««««««««««««« 60

Tablo 9 : *HOLúPLú hONHOHU øoLQ 3DQHO '2/6 YH )02/6 Regresyon

6RQXoODUÕ«««««««««««««««««««««« 62

Tablo 10 : *HOLúPHNWH 2ODQ YH *HOLúPLú hONHOHULQ 3DQHO '2/6 YH )02/6

$QDOL]OHULQLQ.DUúÕODúWÕUÕOPDVÕ««««««««««««« 64

(10)

vi

g=(7

6$h6RV\DO%LOLPOHU(QVWLWV <NVHN/LVDQV Tez g]HWL

Tezin BaúlÕ÷Õ: %\PH7HRULOHULdHUoHYHVLQGH(÷LWLPYH6D÷OÕN*|VWHUJHOHULLOH(NRQRPLN%\PHøOLúNLOHUL Tezin YazarÕ: $KPHW*|NoH$.32/$7 DanÕúman: <UG'Ro'U$OL.$%$6$.$/

Kabul Tarihi: 26.07.2012 Sayfa SayÕsÕ: xii |Q kÕsÕm) + (tez) 79 AnabilimdalÕ: øNWLVDW %LOLP'DOÕ øNWLVDW

%XoDOÕúPDGDE\PHWHRULOHULoHUoHYHVLQGHH÷LWLPYHVD÷OÕ÷ÕQHNRQRPLNE\PHLOH

RODQ LOLúNLVL LQFHOHQPLúWLU %X ED÷ODPGD |QFHOLNOH EHúHUL VHUPD\H NDYUDPÕQÕQ WDULKL

VUHo LoHULVLQGH JHOLúLPL oHúLWOL HNRQRPLN E\PH YH EHúHUL VHUPD\H PRGHOOHUL YH

H÷LWLPYHVD÷OÕ÷ÕQHNRQRPLNE\PHLOHRODQLOLúNLVLWHRULNoHUoHYHGHHOHDOÕQPÕúWÕU

dDOÕúPDQÕQ DPSLULN DQDOL] E|OPQGH JHOLúPHNWH RODQ  ONH YH JHOLúPLú  ONH

HNRQRPLVL LoLQ IL]LNVHO VHUPD\HQLQ YH EHúHUL VHUPD\H GH÷LúNHQOHUL RODQ H÷LWLP YH

VD÷OÕ÷ÕQ HNRQRPLN E\PH LOH RODQ LOLúNLVL DQDOL] HGLOPLúWLU )L]LNVHO VHUPD\H

GH÷LúNHQL RODUDN JD\UL VDIL VDELW VHUPD\H ROXúXPX H÷LWLP GH÷LúNHQL RODUDN H÷LWLP

KDUFDPDODUÕVD÷OÕNGH÷LúNHQLRODUDNLVHGR÷XúWD\DúDPEHNOHQWLVLDOÕQPÕúWÕU

<DSÕODQ oDOÕúPD VRQXFXQGD JHUHN IL]LNVHO VHUPD\H JHUHNVH H÷LWLP YH VD÷OÕN

GH÷LúNHQOHUL LOH HNRQRPLN E\PH DUDVÕQGD X]XQ G|QHPOL ELU LOLúNLQLQ YDUOÕ÷Õ WHVSLW

HGLOPLúYHLOLúNLQLQSR]LWLI\|QOELULOLúNLROGX÷XRUWD\DNRQPXúWXU)L]LNVHOVHUPD\H

GH÷LúNHQLRODQJD\ULVDILVDELWVHUPD\HROXúXPXQXQYHH÷LWLPKDUFDPDODUÕQÕQJHOLúPLú

ONHOHUGH JHOLúPHNWH RODQ ONHOHUH NÕ\DVOD HNRQRPLN E\PH ]HULQGH GDKD HWNLOL

ROGX÷XEXQDNDUúÕQVD÷OÕNGH÷LúNHQLRODQGR÷XúWD\DúDPEHNOHQWLVLQLQJHOLúPHNWHRODQ

ONHOHUGH HNRQRPLN E\PH ]HULQGH JHOLúPLú ONHOHUH NÕ\DVOD GDKD HWNLOL ROGX÷X

VRQXFXQDXODúÕOPÕúWÕU

Anahtar kelimeler: %HúHUL6HUPD\H(÷LWLP(NRQRPLN%\PH6D÷OÕN

(11)

vii

SUMMARY

Sakarya University Institute of Social Sciences Abstract of Master Thesis Title of the Thesis: Relationship Between Education, Health Indicators And Economic

Growth Within The Frame of Economic Growth Theories

Author: $KPHW*|NoH$.32/$7 Supervisor: Assist. Prof. Dr. Ali KABASAKAL Date: 26.07.2012 Nu. of pages: xi (pre text) + (main body) 79 Department: Economics Subfield: Economics

In this study, relationship between education, health and economic growth is examined within the frame of economic growth theories. First of all; development of the concept of human capital during historical duration, several economic growth and human capital models and relationship between education, health and economic growth are handled within the theoretical framework. In the empirical analysis part of the study, the relationship between physical capital, education and health(as two variables of human capital) and economic growth is analyzed for 11 developing and 13 developed countries. As physical capital variable, gross fixed capital formation; as education variable, education expenditures, as health variable, life expectancy at birth are taken.

As a result of the study, the long run relationship between education, health and economic growth is detected and also, the direction of the relationship is determined as positive. Gross fixed capital formation and education expenditures are detected as more effective in the developed countries than those in the developing countries on economic growth; however, life expectancy at birth is determined as more effective in the developing countries than that in the developed countries.

Keywords: Human Capital, Education, Economic Growth, Health

(12)

1

*ø5øù

$UDúWÕUPDQÕQ3UREOHPL

øNWLVDWELUELOLPRODUDNRUWD\DoÕNWÕ÷ÕQGDQEHULQHGHQED]ՁONHOHULQGL÷HULQHJ|UHGDKD

]HQJLQ\DGDGL÷HULQHJ|UHGDKDIDNLUROGX÷XNRQXVXWDUWÕúÕODJHOPLúELUNRQXROPXúWXU

Merkantilistlerin ONHOHULQ ]HQJLQOL÷LQLQ VDKLS ROGXNODUÕ GH÷HUOL PDGHQ VWRkXQD ED÷OÕ

ROGX÷XQXLIDGHHWPHOHULYHLKUDFDWÕWHúYLNHGHQLWKDODWÕPPNQROGX÷XQFDNÕVÕWOD\DQ

SROLWLNDODU |QHUPHOHUL DVOÕQGD RQODUÕQ E\PHQLQ DQFDN EX \ROOD RODELOHFH÷LQH RODQ

LQDQoODUÕQGDQND\QDNODQPDNWD\GÕ0HUNDQWLOL]PLQEX|QHUPHVLQHELUWHSNLRODUDN$GDP

6PLWK PLOOHWOHULQ ]HQJLQOL÷LQLQ VDKLS ROGXNODUÕ UHWLP JFQH ED÷OÕ ROGX÷XQX LIDGH

HGHUHN DVOÕQGD ]ÕPQL RODUDN UHWLPLQ LNL WHPHO IDNW|UQGHQ ELUL RODQ HPH÷LQ |QHPLQL

RUWD\D NR\X\RU YH LúJF YH X]PDQODúPD YDVÕWDVÕ\OD GD HPH÷LQ YHULPOLOL÷LQLQ

DUWDFD÷ÕQÕGL÷HUELULIDGH\OHEHúHULVHUPD\HQLQJHOLúHFH÷LQLLIDGHHWPLúROX\RUGX'DKD

VRQUDJHOHQLNWLVDWoÕODUGDHPH÷HUHWLPVUHFLQGHD]\DGDoRNELUGH÷HUDWIHGHUHNLQVDQ

XQVXUXQXQ|QHPLQL KHUELULNWLVDWoÕIDUNOÕGHUHFHOHUGHGHROVD RUWD\DNR\PXúODUGÕU

%HúHUL VHUPD\H LNWLVDW OLWHUDWUQGH |]HOOLNOH  'Q\D 6DYDúÕ¶ndan sonra sistematik DQODPGDWDUWÕúÕOPD\DEDúODQDQELUNDYUDPRODUDNNDUúÕPÕ]DoÕNPDNWDGÕUøNLQFL'Q\D

6DYDúÕ |QFHVL G|QHPGH GH $GDP 6PLWK 0DU[ 6FKXPSHWHU JLEL LNWLVDWoÕODU EHúHUL

VHUPD\H\H GH÷LQPLúOHUGLU $GDP 6PLWK LúE|OP YH X]PDQODúPD VD\HVLQGH HPH÷LQ

YHULPOLOL÷LQLQ DUWDFD÷Õ YH D\QÕ ND\QDNODUOD GDKD ID]OD UHWLP \DSÕODELOHFH÷LQL LIDGH

HWPLúWLU0DU[LVHNDSLWDOLVWUHWLPLDQODWÕUNHQEXUMXYD]LQLQUHWLPDUDoODUÕQGDVUHNOL

ELU GHYULP \DSWÕ÷Õ VUHFH D\DNWD NDODELOHFH÷LQL LIDGH HWPLúWLU 6FKXPSHWHU LNWLVDGL

UHWLPGHJLULúLPFL\HPHUNH]LELUURODWIHGHUHNµ\HQLOLNOHU¶YHµ\DUDWÕFÕ\ÕNÕP¶YDVÕWDVÕ\OD

LNWLVDGLJHOLúPHQLQJHUoHNOHúHFH÷LQLLIDGHHWPLúWLU1HYDU NL\XNDUÕGDGDEHOLUWWL÷LPL]

JLEL EWQ EX GH÷HUOHQGLUPHOHU  'Q\D 6DYDúÕ VRQUDVÕQD NDGDU VLVWHPDWLN ELU

EWQO÷HNDYXúPDPÕúWÕU

.ODVLN E\PH WHRULVLQLQ LNWLVDGL E\PH\L DoÕNODPDGD \HWHUVL]OL÷L YH 1HRNODVLN

E\PH WHRULVLQGH WHNQRORMLQLQ µFHQQHWWHQ GúHQ ELU PH\YH¶ LIDGHVL\OH GÕúVDO RODUDN

UHWLP VUHFL LoHULVLQGH NHQGLOL÷LQGHQ JHOLúWL÷L |Q NDEXO LNWLVDWoÕODUÕ UHWLP VUHFL

LoHULVLQGHEHúHULVHUPD\HQLQUROQDoÕNODPD\DVHYNHWPLúWLU.ODVLNLNWLVDWoÕODUGDQRODQ

Malthus¶XQ QIXVXQ JHRPHWULN EXQD NDUúÕQ UHWLPLQ DULWPHWLN DUWWÕ÷Õ EXQGDQ GROD\Õ

JHOHFHNWHLQVDQODUÕQDoOÕNROJXVX\ODNDUúÕNDUúÕ\DNDODFD÷Õ|QJ|UVGR÷UXoÕNPDPÕúWÕU

(13)

2

%XQXQ VHEHEL LVH UHWLP VUHFL LoHULVLQGH RUWD\D oÕNDQ YH DVOÕQGD EHúHUL VHUPD\HQLQ

UQ ROan teknolojik yeniliklerdir. Solow-6ZDQ¶ÕQ JHOLúWLUGL÷L 1HRNODVLN E\PH

WHRULVLQGHX]XQG|QHPGXUD÷DQGXUXPGHQJHVLQGHQGDKDVWELUG]H\GXUD÷DQGXUXP

GHQJHVLQH JHoLúLQ WHNQRORMLN JHOLúPH \ROX\OD RODFD÷ÕQÕQ EHOLUWLOPHVL IDNDW E\PHQLQ

temel belirleyiciVL RODQ EX WHNQRORMLN JHOLúPHQLQ KDQJL \ROODUOD RODFD÷ÕQÕQ

EHOLUWLOPHPHVL WHRUL\H \|QHOWLOHQ |QHPOL HOHúWLULOHUGHQ ELULVL ROPXúWXU g]HOOLNOH

¶ODUÕQEDúODUÕQGDRUWD\DoÕNDQ6FKXOW]%HFNHUJLELLNWLVDWoÕODUÕQ|QFoDOÕúPDODUÕYH

¶OHUGH E\PH PRGHOOHULQH GDKLO HGLOPHVL LOH RUWD\D oÕNDQ µøoVHO %\PH

7HRULOHUL¶QGH¶ PHUNH]L ELU \HU EXODQ YH GROD\ÕVÕ\OD LNWLVDW OLWHUDWUQGH E\N |QHP

ND]DQDQEHúHULVHUPD\HJQP]GQ\DVÕQGDONHOHUDUDVÕQGDNLJHOLúPLúOLNIDUNODUÕQÕ

DoÕNODPDGDHQ|QHPOLIDNW|UOHUGHQ ELULVLRODUDNNDUúÕPÕ]DoÕNPDNWDGÕU(÷LWLPH\DSÕODQ

\DWÕUÕPODUve ar-JHIDDOL\HWOHULQHWLFHVLQGHHOGHHGLOHQELOJLQLQLONNH]UHWLOGLNWHQVRQUD

\D\JÕQODúPD VUHFLQGH HN ELU PDOL\HWH JHUHN NDOPDGDQ HNRQRPLGH VUHNOL

NXOODQÕODELOPHVLUHWLPGHYHULPOLOL÷L DUWÕUPDVÕYHD]DODQJHWLULOHUHGH÷LODUWDQJHWLULOHUH

WDELROPDVÕJLEL|]HOOLNOHULEHúHULVHUPD\H\H\DWÕUÕP\DSPDQÕQ|QHPLQLE\N|OoGH

RUWD\DNR\PDNWDGÕU

(÷LWLP ise EHúHULVHUPD\HXQVXUODUÕLoHULVLQGHHQoRNJ|]HoDUSDQXQVXURODUDNNHQGLQL

J|VWHUPHNWHGLUø\LH÷LWLPDODQELUH\OHUKHPGDKDYHULPOLoDOÕúÕUODUKHPGHLúHVQDVÕQGD

GDKD D] ]DPDQ YH LúJF ND\EÕ\OD NDUúÕODúWÕNODUÕ SUREOHPL o|]HUOHU $\UÕFD H÷LWLPOL

LúJF GDKD \NVHN FUHW DOÕU YH GDKD oRN PDO YH KL]PHW WDOHS HGHU bu durumda HNRQRPLGH GDKD oRN PDO YH KL]PHW UHWLPL ROXU (÷LWLPLQ EX PLNUR HWNLOHUL \DQÕQGD

WDúPD HWNLOHUL GHQLOHQ PDNUR HWNLOHUL \ROX\OD HNRQRPLGH DU-ge faaliyeti yapan ve WHNQRORMLJHOLúWLUHQVHNW|UOHUGDKDKÕ]OÕELOJLUHWLPLJHUoHNOHúWLULUYHELOJLQLQGDKDKÕ]OÕ

\D\ÕOPDVÕQDVHEHSROXU

%HúHUL VHUPD\H LOH LOJLOL \DSÕODQ oDOÕúPDODUGD |QFHOHUL H÷LWLPLQLQ |QHPLQH GDKD oRN

YXUJX \DSÕOÕUNHQ GDKD VRQUDODUÕ VD\GÕ÷ÕPÕ] GL÷HU XQVXUODUD GD \HU YHULOmeye EDúODQPÕúWÕU  %HúHUL VHUPD\HQLQ XQVXUODUÕ LoHULVLQGH H÷LWLPLQ \DQÕQGD VD÷OÕN DU-ge KDUFDPDODUÕ EH\LQ J|o GHPRJUDILN \DSÕ NOWU FR÷UDI\D GLQ VD\ÕODELOLU 6D÷OÕN

H÷LWLPGHQVRQUDEHúHULVHUPD\HXQVXUODUÕLoHULVLQGHHQoRN]HULQGHGXUXODQXQVXUlardan ELULROPD\DEDúODPÕúWÕU<DNODúÕNVRQ\ÕOLoHULVLQGHEHúHULVHUPD\H\HVD÷OÕ÷ÕGDGDKLO

HGHQLNWLVDGLPRGHOOHUOLWHUDWUGHNHQGLOHULQH\HUEXOPD\DEDúODPÕúODUGÕU

(14)

3

6D÷OÕ÷ÕQHNRQRPLNE\PH\HRODVÕHWNLVLQLNÕVDFDLIDGHHGHUVHNVD÷OÕNOÕELUH\OHUGaha X]XQ \DúDUODU YH GDKD X]XQ \ÕOODU UHWLPH NDWNÕGD EXOXQXUODU 6D÷OÕNOÕ LúJF UHWLP

VUHFL LoHULVLQGH KDVWDOÕNODUD GDKD D] \DNDODQGÕ÷Õ LoLQ LúJF ND\EÕ GDKD D] \DúDQÕU

$\UÕFD KNPHWOHU |]HOOLNOH NRUX\XFX VD÷OÕN KL]PHWOHULQH \R÷XQODúWÕNODUÕQGD EHEHN

|OPOHULQGH|QHPOLGúúOHUGR÷XúWD \DúDPEHNOHQWLVLYH \HWLúNLQOHULQ KD\DWWDNDOPD

VUHOHULQGH|QHPOLDUWÕúODUJHUoHNOHúPHNWHGLU%X\ROODLQVDQND\ÕSODUÕQGDNLD]DOPDODU

YH YHULPOLOLNWH \DúDQDQ DUWÕúODU HNRQRPLGH LúJF YH PLOOL JHOLU DUWÕúÕQÕ EHUDEHULQde getirmektedir.

$UDúWÕUPDQÕQ.RQXVX

%XDUDúWÕUPDQÕQNRQXVXJHOLúPLúYHJHOLúPHNWHRODQONHOHUGHH÷LWLPYHVD÷OÕ÷ÕQPLOOL

JHOLU  LOH RODQ LOLúNLVLQL DUDúWÕUPDNWÕU dDOÕúPD NDSVDPÕQGD  JHOLúPHNWH RODQ YH 

JHOLúPLú ONHQLQ H÷LWLP YH VD÷OÕN J|VWHUJHOHUL LOH PLOOL JHOLU LOLúNLVL DQDOL] HGLOPLúWLU

%\PHWHRULOHULNDSVDPÕQGDEHúHULYHfiziksel VHUPD\HRODUDNVHUPD\HNDYUDPÕLNL\H

D\UÕOGÕ÷ÕQGDQIL]LNVHOVHUPD\HGH÷LúNHQLGHPRGHOGHNXOODQÕOPÕúWÕU0RGHOGHNXOODQÕODQ

GH÷LúNHQOHU*6<ø+ JD\ULVDILVDELWVHUPD\HROXúXPXH÷LWLPKDUFDPDODUÕYHGR÷XúWD

\DúDP EHNOHQWLVL GH÷LúNHQOHULGLU <DSÕODQ DQDOL] QHWLFHVLQGH ED÷ÕPVÕ] GH÷LúNHQOHULQ

ED÷ÕPOÕGH÷LúNHQRODQ*6<ø+LOHRODQLOLúNLOHULQLQ\|QQQWHRULNEHNOHQWLOHUOHX\XPOX

ROXSROPDGÕ÷ÕWHVWHGLOPLúEXQXQ\DQÕVÕUDGH÷LúNHQOHULQ*6<ø+]HULQGHNLHWNLOHULQLQ

E\NO÷ WHVSLW HGLOHUHN PLOOL JHOLUH NDWNÕODUÕ KHVDSODQPD\D oDOÕúÕOPÕúWÕU (÷LWLP YH

VD÷OÕNGH÷LúNHQOHULQLQ*6<ø+¶\DRODQHWNLOHULQLQJHOLúPLúYHJHOLúPHNWHRODQONHOHUGH

IDUNOÕOÕNDU]HGLSHWPHGL÷LGHDQDOL]HGLOPLúWLU

$UDúWÕUPDQÕQ$PDFÕYH$UDúWÕUPD6RUXODUÕ

dDOÕúPDQÕQ WHPHO DPDFÕ JHOLúPLú YH JHOLúPHNWH RODQ ONHOHUGH H÷LWLP YH VD÷OÕ÷ÕQ

HNRQRPLNE\PH\OHRODQLOLúNLVLQLRUWD\DNR\PDNWÕU%XGR÷UXOWXGDH÷LWLPYHVD÷OÕ÷ÕQ

HNRQRPLN E\PH\OH RODQ LOLúNLVL LOJLOL OLWHUDWUQ GH GHVWH÷L\OH RUWD\D NRQXOXS

JHOLúPHNWH RODQ YH JHOLúPLú ONHOHU ]HULQH HNRQRPHWULN X\JXODPD \DSÕODFDNWÕU

8\JXODPDQHWLFHVLQGHH÷LWLPYHVD÷OÕNGH÷LúNHQOHULQLQHNRQRPLNE\PH]HULQGHNL

HWNLVLQLQ WHVSLW HGLOLS JHOLúPLú YH JHOLúPHNWH RODQ ONHOHUGH IDUNOÕODúPD YDU LVH bu HWNLOHULQQHGHQIDUNOÕODúWÕ÷ÕQÕRUWD\DNR\PDNWH]LQDPDoODUÕDUDVÕQGDGÕU%XQXQODELUOLNWH

H÷LWLP YH VD÷OÕN \ROX\OD HNRQRPLN E\PH\H \DSÕODFDN RODQ NDWNÕQÕQ QDVÕO

DUWÕUÕODELOHFH÷LNRQXVXQGDSROLWLND|QHULOHULJHWLUPHN GHDPDoODQPDNWDGÕU

(15)

4

$UDúWÕUPDQÕQDPDFÕGR÷UXOWXVXQGDWHPHODUDúWÕUPDVRUXODUÕDúD÷ÕGDNLKLSRWH]OHUHDUDQDQ

FHYDSODUGDQROXúPDNWDGÕU>D@*D\ULVDILVDELWVHUPD\HROXúXPXLOHLIDGHHGLOHQfiziksel VHUPD\HGH÷LúNHQLLOH*6<ø+DUDVÕQGDNLLOLúNLSR]LWLI\|QOolarak beklenmektedir. [b]

(÷LWLPKDUFDPDODUÕLOH*6<ø+DUDVÕQGDNLLOLúNLSR]LWLI\|QORODUDNEHNOHQPHNWHGLU>F@

6D÷OÕN GH÷LúNHQL RODQ GR÷XúWD \DúDP EHNOHQWLVL LOH *6<ø+ LOLúNLVLQLQ \|Q SR]LWLI

olarak beklenmektedir.

$UDúWÕUPDQÕQ*HUHNoHVLYHgQHPL

dDOÕúPDJHOLúPHNWHRODQYHJHOLúPLúONHOHUGH-G|QHPLJLELX]XQG|QHPOLbir analizi ihtiva etmesi ve LOHUL SDQHO YHUL DQDOL]OHUL \ROX\OD \DSPDVÕ DoÕVÕQGDQ |QHPH

VDKLSWLUøOHULSDQHOYHULDQDOL]OHUL\ROX\ODH÷LWLPYHVD÷OÕ÷ÕQHNRQRPLNE\PH\HRODQ

etNLVLQLQWHVSLWLQLQJYHQLOLUVRQXoODUYHUHELOHFH÷LWDKPLQHGLOPHNWHGLUøOHULSDQHOYHUL

DQDOL]OHULQH J|UH RUWD\D NRQDQ VRQXoODU ]HULQGHQ JYHQLOLU SROLWLND |QHULOHUL RUWD\D

NR\XODELOHFH÷LGúQOHELOLU

$UDúWÕUPDQÕQ<|QWHPL

%X oDOÕúPDGD -2010 G|QHPLQGH JHOLúPHNWH RODQ YH JHOLúPLú ONHOHUGH H÷LWLP YH

VD÷OÕ÷ÕQ HNRQRPLN E\PH\OH RODQ LOLúNLVL LOHUL SDQHO YHUL DQDOL]OHULQGHQ RODQ 3DQHO

'2/6YH)02/6\|QWHPOHULLOHDQDOL]HGLOHFHNWLU%XDQDOL]\|QWHPLQLQVD÷ODPOÕ÷ÕQÕ

RUWD\D NR\DQ |QHPOL ELU J|VWHUJH GH GH÷LúNHQOHU DUDVÕQGD HúEWQOHúPH LOLúNLVLQLQ

WHVSLWLQGHQVRQUDEXDQDOL]OHULQ\DSÕODELOPHVLGLU'ROD\ÕVÕ\ODHúEWQOHúPHLOLúNLVLRODQ

GH÷LúNHQOHU DUDVÕQGD \DSÕODFDN RODQ UHJUHV\RQ DQDOL]OHULQLQ VD÷OÕNOÕ VRQXoODU YHUPHVL

kuvvetle muhtemeldir.

Panel veri analizi sayesinde GDKDoRNJ|]OHP\ROX\ODWHNELUONH\HDLW]DPDQVHULVLLOH

HOGHHGLOPHVL]RURODQVRQXoODUDXODúDELOPHNWLU$\UÕFDGDKDID]ODJ|]OHPGDKDID]OD

VHUEHVWOLNGHUHFHVLVD÷ODPDVÕVHEHEL\OH]DPDQVHULVLYH\DWD\NHVLWYHULVL\|QWHPOHULQH

J|UH GDKD NHVLQ VRQXolar vermektedir. Panel DOLS ve FMOLS analizlerinin panel

\|QWHPL RODUDN NXOODQÕOPDVÕQÕQ |QHPOL ELU DYDQWDMÕ GD DUDODUÕQGD HúEWQOHúPH WHVSLW

HGLOHQ GH÷LúNHQOHU UHJUHV\RQD VRNXOXUNHQ IDUNODUÕQÕQ DOÕQPDVÕQD JHUHN ROPDPDVÕGÕU

'ROD\ÕVÕ\ODGH÷LúNHQOHULQIDUNÕQÕDOPDNWDQND\QDNODQDQELOJLND\EÕ \DúDQPDPDNWDGÕU

Model uygulamaya konulurken Eviews-6 ve WinRats-HNRQRPHWULSDNHWSURJUDPODUÕ

NXOODQÕODFDNWÕU

(16)

5

%XoDOÕúPDG|UWE|OPGHQROXúPDNWDGÕU%LULQFLE|OPGHEHúHULVHUPD\HNDYUDPÕQÕQ

oHúLWOL HNRQRPLVWOHUFH \DSÕOPÕú RODQ WDQÕPODUÕQD GH÷LQLOHFHN, D\UÕFD EHúHUL VHUPD\H

WDULKVHOVUHoWHHOHDOÕQDFDNWÕU7DULKLVUHoLoHULVLQGHEHúHULVHUPD\HNDYUDPÕQDEDNÕúÕQ

QDVÕOGH÷LúWL÷LYHEHúHULVHUPD\HQLQHNRQRPLNE\PH\HNDWNÕVÕQÕQ\LQHWDULKVHOVUHo

LoHULVLQGHHNRQRPLVWOHUFHQDVÕOWHVSLWHGLOLS\RUXPODQGÕ÷ÕRUWD\DNRQXODFDNWÕU

øNLQFL E|OPGH oHúLWOL EHúHUL VHUPD\H PRGHOOHUL YH HNRQRPLN E\PH WHRULOHUL

DQODWÕODFDNWÕU%XWHRULOHULoHULVLQGHQHRNODVLNE\PHWHRULVLQHEHúHULVHUPD\HQLQGDKLO

HGLOPLúYHUVL\RQODUÕYHLoVHOE\PHWHRULOHUL]HULQGH|]HOOLNOHGXUXODFDN YHEXQODUÕQ

\DQÕQGD oHúLWOL LNWLVDWoÕODU WDUDIÕQGDQ RUWD\D NRQPXú RODQ EHúHUL VHUPD\H PRGHOOHUL

WHRULNoHUoHYHGHHOHDOÕQDFDNWÕU

hoQF E|OPGH VD÷OÕN YH H÷LWLPLQ HNRQRPLN E\PH\OH RODQ LOLúNLVL ]HULQGH

durulacak, D\UÕFD KDQJL NDQDOODU \ROX\OD HNRQRPLN E\PH\H HWNL HWWL÷LQGHQ

EDKVHGLOHFHNWLU$\UÕFDH÷LWLPYHVD÷OÕNLOHHNRQRPLNE\PHLOLúNLVLQLRUWD\DNR\DQ

DPSLULNOLWHUDWUH\HUYHULOHFHNWLU

dDOÕúPDQÕQ G|UGQF E|OPQGH HNRQRPHWULN DQDOL] \DSÕODFDN YH VRQXo E|OPQGH

VRQXoODU GHWD\OÕ ELU \RUXPD WDEL WXWXODFDNWÕU <DSÕODFDN \RUXPODU ROXúDQ NDQWLWDWLI

VRQXoODU QHWLFHVLQGH úHNLOOHQHFHNWLU (NRQRPHWULN DQDOL] \DSÕOPDGDQ |QFH, NXOODQÕODQ

\|QWHPHYH|QHPLQHGH÷LQLOHFHNYHDYDQWDMODUÕQGDQEDKVHGLOHFHNWLU

(17)

6

%g/h0: %(ù(5ø6(50$<(.$95$0,9(7$5ø+ø6h5(d7(

(/($/,1,ù,

%HúHUL6HUPD\H.DYUDPÕ

%HúHULVHUPD\HLOJLOLWDULKVHOVUHoLoHULVLQGHoHúLWOLLNWLVDWoÕODUEHúHULVHUPD\H\HIDUNOÕ

WDQÕPODPDODU JHWLUPLúWLU $úD÷ÕGD EX WDQÕPODUÕQ ELU NÕVPÕQGDQ EDKVHGLOHFHNWLU

1DIIXNKRYG$NWDUDQ$FDUR÷OX: 7).

6FKXOW]  EHúHULVHUPD\H\LLQVDQÕQH÷LWLP\ROX\ODHGLQGL÷LELOJLYHEHFHULRODUDN

WDQÕPODUYHEHúHULVHUPD\H\LNDUJHWLULFLELU\DWÕUÕPDUDFÕRODUDNJ|UU0LQFHU   LVHEHúHULVHUPD\HQLQLúJFQKD]ÕUOD\DQH÷LWLPYH|÷UHWLPLQNHQGLVLROGX÷XQXLIDGH

HWPHNWHGLU'HQLVRQ  EHúHULVHUPD\HQLQVHUPD\HHPHNYHYHULPOLOLNWHNLDUWÕúODUOD

DoÕNODQDPD\DQ UHWLP DUWÕúÕ ROGX÷XQX YH EX DUWÕúÕQ LúJFQQ DUWDQ H÷LWLP G]H\LQLQ

NDWNÕVÕROGX÷XQXEHOLUWPHNWHGLU%HFNHU  H÷LWLPLQPDOL\HWLQLQH÷LWLPQHWLFHVLQGH

HOGH HGLOHQ HNVWUD JHOLUH HúLW ROXQFD\D NDGDU NDGDU \DSÕODQ ELUH\VHO \DWÕUÕP RODUDN

WDQÕPODPDNWDGÕU. %RZPDQ   EHúHUL VHUPD\HQLQ ELU \DWÕUÕP WU ROGX÷XQX

EHOLUWHUHN VRV\DO KL]PHWOHU H÷LWLP YH VD÷OÕ÷D \DSÕODQ KDUFDPDODUÕ IL]LNVHO VHUPD\H

\DWÕUÕPÕJLELGH÷HUOHQGLULU3VDFKDURSRXORVYH:RRGKDOO  EHúHULVHUPD\H\LUHVPL

YH\DJD\ULUHVPLH÷LWLPH\DSÕODQ\DWÕUÕPRODUDNJ|UPHNWHYHEXúHNLOGHYHULOHQPHVOHNL

H÷LWLPLQ ND]DQGÕUGÕ÷Õ ELOJL YH EHFHUL \ROX\OD HNRQRPLN YH VRV\DO JHOLúPH\L

sa÷OD\DFD÷ÕQÕ LIDGH HWPHNWHGLUOHU 5RPHU   øoVHO %\PH 7HRULVLQGH  EHúHUL

VHUPD\H\L úLUNHWOHULQ ONHQLQ \D GD HNRQRPLQLQ VDKLS ROGX÷X WRSODP EHúHUL sermaye stokX RODUDN WDQÕPODPDNWD YH GDKD oRN EHúHUL VHUPD\H VWRNXQD VDKLS RODQ ONHOHULQ

GDKD KÕ]OÕ E\\HFH÷LQH LúDUHW HWPHNWHGLU 1DIIXNKR YG  $NWDUDQ $FDUR÷OX

2005:7)

<XNDUÕGD J|UOG÷ JLEL IDUNOÕ LNWLVDWoÕODUÕQ \DSWÕ÷Õ WDQÕPODPDODU IDUNOÕOÕNlar J|VWHUPHNWHGLU%XWDQÕPODPDODUÕQIDUNOÕOÕ÷ÕLNWLVDWoÕODUÕQEDNÕúDoÕODUÕQGDNLIDUNOÕOÕNWDQ

RODELOHFH÷L JLEL WDULKVHO VUHo LoHULVLQGH WRSOXPODUÕQ JHoLUGL÷L HNRQRPLN YH VRV\DO

G|QúPGHQ GH ND\QDNODQDELOPHNWHGLU $PD J|UOG÷ JLEL EWQ WDQÕPODPDODUGa RUWD\DoÕNDQWHPHOQRNWDEHúHULVHUPD\HQLQLúJFQQYHULPOLOL÷LQLDUWÕUDQELUVHUPD\H

WUROGX÷XGXU%HúHULVHUPD\HNXUDPFÕODUÕ|QFHOHULGDKDoRN|UJQPHVOHNLH÷LWLP\D

GD Lú WHFUEHVL \ROODUÕ\OD EHúHUL VHUPD\H G]H\LQLQ DUWWÕ÷Õ ]HULQGH RGDNODQÕUNHn

(18)

7

|]HOOLNOHVRQ\ÕOD\DNÕQGÕU\DSÕODQoDOÕúPDODUGD(Bhargava, 2001; Bloom vd., 2004;

Gyimah-%UHPSRQJ YH :LOVRQ  YV  LúJFQQ VD÷OÕN GXUXPXQXQ YH WRSOXPXQ

JHQHO DQODPGD VD÷OÕN G]H\LQLQ HNRQRPLN E\PH ]HULQGH |QHPOL ELU HWNL\H VDKLS

ROGX÷X YH EHúHUL VHUPD\H NDYUDPÕ LoHULVLQGH GH÷HUOHQGLULOPHVL JHUHNWL÷LQL

EHOLUWPLúOHUGLU

%WQEXGH÷HUOHQGLUPHOHULELUOLNWHHOHDOGÕ÷ÕPÕ]GDEHúHULVHUPD\HUHWLPVUHFLQLQHQ

|QHPOLLNLIDNW|UQGHQELULRODQHPH÷LQYHULPOLOL÷LQLDUWÕUDQELOJLEHFHULH÷LWLPGzeyi, Lú WHFUEHVL NLúLYHWRSOXPVD÷OÕ÷ÕYH JHQHOVD÷OÕNJLUGLOHULQGHL\LOHúPHOHU JLELEWQ

XQVXUODUÕLKWLYDHGHQVHUPD\HWURODUDNWDQÕPODQDELOLU

%HúHUL6HUPD\HQLQ7DULKVHO6UHoWH(OH$OÕQÕúÕ

øQVDQÕHNRQRPLNELUGH÷HUNDEXOHGLSVHUPD\HNDYUDPÕQDGDKLOHGHQLONoDOÕúPDODUGDQ

ELULQL 3HWW\  \ÕOÕQGDNL oDOÕúPDVÕQGD \DSPÕúWÕU 3HWW\ LQVDQÕQ ELU UHWLP IDNW|U

RODUDN VHUPD\H GH÷HULQL LON KHVDSODPD\D oDOÕúDQ NLúL RODUDN LNWLVDW OLWHUDWUQGH \HU

DOPDNWDGÕU $FDUR÷OX :10  3HWW\¶H J|UH HPHN VHUYHWLQ EDEDVÕGÕU YH EWQ GR÷DO

ND\QDNODUD YH ELULNPLú VHUPD\H\H J|UH GDKD YHULPOLGLU (Kiker, 1966:482 <ÕOGÕUÕP

2005). PHWW\¶HJ|UHVHUYHWVHUPD\HVWRNXYHXOXVDOYDUOÕNJHoPLúHPH÷LQELUVRQXFXGXU

Petty bu yorumuyla emek-GH÷HUWHRULVLQLQGHLúDUHWOHULQLYHUPLúROX\RUGX3HWW\HPH÷LQ

\DQÕQGDWRSUD÷DGDHNRQRPLNDQODPGDE\NNÕ\PHWYHUPLúWLU 6DYDú; Aktaran:

<ÕOGÕUÕP :25  3HWW\¶H J|UH ONHOHU IHWLKOHUOH YH WRSUDNODUOD E\\HUHN ]HQJLQ

ROPD]ODU ONHQLQ QIXVXQD VDQDWNDUOÕN EXJQN DQODPGD WHNQRORML   G]H\LQH YH

VDQD\LOHúPH G]H\LQH J|UH ]HQJLQ \D GD IDNLU ROGXNODUÕ EHOLUOHQLU <ÕOGÕUÕP 

$FDUR÷OX 3HWW\EHúHULVHUPD\HNDYUDPÕQÕ L øQJLOWHUH¶QLQJFQ, LL J|oQ

HNRQRPLNHWNLOHULQL LLL VDYDúODUGDPH\GDQDJHOHQFDQND\EÕQÕQSDUDVDOGH÷HULQL LY 

ONHQLQ |OPOHUGHQ GROD\Õ PDUX] NDOGÕ÷Õ SDUDVDO ND\EÕQÕ J|VWHUPHN DPDFÕ\OD

NXOODQPD\DoDOÕúPÕúWÕU .LNHU 3HWW\LQVDQÕQ\DúFLQVL\HWHNRQRPLNVWDWJLEL

GH÷HUOHULQL J|] DUGÕ HWWL÷LQGHQ EHúHUL VHUPD\HQLQ EHOLrlenmHVLQGH \HWHUVL] NDOPÕúWÕU

(7XQo 

Adam Smith  VDELWVHUPD\HNDYUDPÕQÕQELQDODUPDNLQDODUYHWRSUD÷ÕQ\DQÕQGD

WRSOXP\HOHULQLQHOGHHGLOPLúYH\DUDUOÕEWQNDELOL\HWOHULQLLoHUGL÷LQLLIDGHHWPLúWLU 6DYYLGHVYH6WHQJRV $GDP6PLWK¶HJ|UHELUONHQLQPLOOLJHOLULQLQDUWPDVÕLoLQ

\D R ONHGHNL PHYFXW LúJFQQ DUWPDVÕ YH\DKXW PHYFXW HPH÷LQ UHWLP JFQQ

(19)

8

DUWPDVÕJHUHNWL÷LQLLIDGHHWPLúWLUhUHWNHQHPHNPLNWDUÕQÕQDUWPDVÕLoLQPLOOLJHOLUGHQ

HPH÷H D\UÕODQ PLNWDUÕQ DUWPDVÕ JHUHNWL÷LQL PHYFXW HPH÷LQ UHWLP JFQQ DUWPDVÕQÕ

LVH PDNLQDODúPD YH LúE|OPQH ED÷ODPÕúWÕU 'HPLU YG    $GDP 6PLWK¶H J|UH

EHúHUL VHUPD\HQLQ ELU ND\QD÷Õ LúE|OP QHWLFHVLQGH PH\GDQD JHOHQ X]PDQODúPDGÕU

$GDP 6PLWK KHP IDUNOÕ ILUPDODUÕQ IDUNOÕ PDOODU UHWPHOHULQL KHP GH D\QÕ ILUPDGD

oDOÕúDQ LúoLOHULQ ELU PDOÕQ IDUNOÕ NÕVÕPODUÕQÕ UHWPHOHULQL LúE|OP RODUDN

QLWHOHQGLUPLúWLU$GDP6PLWK¶HJ|UHLúE|OPQQHPH÷LQYHULPOLOL÷LQLDUWÕUPDVÕQÕQo

WHPHOQHGHQLYDUGÕU%XQODU L KHULúoLQLQ\DSDFD÷ÕLúLWHNELUEDVLWLúOHPHLQGLUJHPHN

VXUHWL\OH LúoLQLQ EHFHULVLQLQ DUWPDVÕ LL  ELU LúWHQ GL÷HULQH JHoHUNHQ \LWLULOHQ ]DPDQÕQ

WDVDUUXIHGLOHUHNUHWLPVUHFLQGHNXOODQÕOPDVÕ LLL LúE|OPQQLQVDQODUÕQWHNELUEDVLW

LúOHX÷UDúPDODUÕQGDQGROD\ÕRLúLGDKDNROD\ \DSPD\ÕVD÷OD\DFDNPDNLQDODUÕQLFDGÕQD

ELU EDúND GH\LúOH WHNQRORMLQLQ JHOLúLPLQH \RO DoPDVÕGÕU gWH \DQGDQ 6PLWK LúE|OP

G]H\LQLQ SL\DVDQÕQ E\NO÷QH ED÷OÕ ROGX÷XQX LQVDQODUÕQ NHQGL HPHNOHUL VRQXFX

HOGHHWWLNOHULUQOHULQNHQGLWNHWLPOHULQGHQDUWDNDODQNÕVPÕQÕVDWDELOPHOHULLoLQEHOOL

E\NONWH ELU SL\DVD\D LKWL\Do GX\XOGX÷XQX GD LIDGH HWPLúWLU hQVDO   $GDP

6PLWK¶HJ|UHEHúHULVHUPD\HQLQEDúNDELUND\QD÷ÕUHVPL H÷LWLPYH\D oÕUDNOÕN \ROX\OD

HOGHHGLOHQH÷LWLPGLU Aktaran: Savvides ve Stengos, 2009).

0DOWKXV  ¶DJ|UHQIXVNRQWUROHGLOPHGL÷LVUHFHJHRPHWULNRODUDNDUWDUNHQJHOLU

LVH DULWPHWLN RODUDN DUWPDNWDGÕU 'ROD\ÕVÕ\OD QIXV DUWWÕNoD NLúL EDúÕQD GúHQ PLOOL

JHOLULQD]DOGÕ÷ÕQÕLIDGHHGHQELUPRGHONXUPXúWXU0RGHOHJ|UHHNRQRPLX]XQG|QHPGH

QIXV E\PH KÕ]ÕQÕ VÕIÕU NÕODQ ELU KDVÕOD G]H\LQGH-PLQLPXP \DúDPD G]H\LQGH

GHQJH\H JHOPHNWHGLU 0DOWKXV¶D J|UH GDKD VRQUDODUÕ EHúHUL VHUPD\H\H GDKLO HGLOHFHN

RODQ VD÷OÕNDODQÕQGDNLYHJHOLUGD÷ÕOÕPÕQGDNLL\LOHúPHOHUGDKDID]ODLQVDQÕQGDKDIDNLU

\DúDPDVÕQGDQ |WH ELU LúH \DUDPDPDNWDGÕU dQN VD÷OÕN DODQÕQGDNL L\LOHúPHOHU |OP

RUDQODUÕQÕQGúPHVLQHGROD\ÕVÕ\ODQIXVDUWÕúÕYHGDKDGúNNLúLEDúÕQDPLOOLJHOLUH\RO

DoPDNWDGÕU Aktaran: hQVDO 

Mill (1808- oÕNWÕQÕQVHUPD\HHPHNYHWRSUD÷ÕQ ELUIRQNVL\RQXROGX÷XYHoÕNWÕdaki DUWÕúÕQ UHWLPLQ JLUGLOHULQGH \DKXW YHULPOLOLNOHULQGHNL DUWÕúWDQ ND\QDNODQGÕ÷Õ J|UúQ

NDEXOHWPLúWLU0LOOE|\OHFHUHWLPJLUGLOHULQLQQLWHOL÷LQL TXDOLW\ YHQLFHOL÷LQL TXDQWLW\  ELUELULQGHQD\ÕUPÕúWÕU0LOO¶LQfikirleULúXúeNLOGHNLUHWLPIRQNVL\RQXLOHDoÕNODQDELOLU (Aktaran: Osipian, 2009):

(20)

9

Yt = F (Kt , Lt , Nt ), (1.1)

%XIRQNVL\RQGD<oÕNWÕ\ÕLIDGHHGHU1LVHWRSUD÷ÕLIDGHederPRGHOGHVDELWYHGÕúVDO

NDEXO HGLOLU . VHUPD\H\L LIDGH HWPHNWHGLU / LVH HPHNWLU YH GÕúDUGDQ JHOPLú NDEXO

HGLOLU<DQLUHWLPVLVWHPLLoHULVLQGHUHWLOPHPLúWLUYHHPH÷LQNDOLWHVLQD]DUDDOÕQPD]

(Aktaran: Osipian, 2009).

William Farr    \DSWÕ÷Õ oDOÕúPDVÕQGD LQVDQÕQ VHUPD\H YH\D SDUDVDO GH÷HULQL

KHVDSODPD\D oDOÕúPÕúWÕU )DUU¶ÕQ EHúHUL VHUPD\H GH÷HUOHQGLUPHVL EHúHUL VHUPD\HQLQ

NDPXQXQ ILQDQVPDQÕQD RODQ NDWNÕVÕQGDQ ND\QDNODQPÕúWÕU )DUU PONL\HW ]HULQGHQ

DOÕQDQYHUJL\HGD\DOÕYHUJLVLVWHPLQLQ ND]DQoNDSDVLWHVLQLQEXJQNGH÷HULQGHQ ibaret RODQ PONL\HWH GD\DOÕ (capitalized value of earning capacity) bir sistemle ikame HGLOPHVLJHUHNWL÷LQLLIDGHHWPLúWLU8\JXODGÕ÷Õ \|QWHPLVHJHOHFHNWHNLQHWND]DQoODUÕQ

EXJQN GH÷HULQL |OPOHUL GH KHVDED NDWDQ ELU \DúDP WDEORVX ROXúWXUDUDN DOÕQDFDN

YHUJL\LKHVDSODPDNúHNOLQGH\GL)DUU¶DJ|UHEHúHULVHUPD\HD\QÕIL]LNVHOVHUPD\HJLEL

UHWNHQGL YH YHUJLOHQGLULOPHOL\GL %X GXUXP LQVDQODUÕ KHQ] HOOHULQGH ROPD\DQ

ND]DQoODUÕQGDQ GROD\Õ YHUJL\H WDEL WXWPDN GHPHN ROGX÷XQGDQ DEVUG VRQXoODUD \RO

DoDELOPHNWH\GL Aktaran: Kiker, 1966).

(UQVW (QJHO   \DSWÕ÷Õ oDOÕúPDVÕQGD LQVDQ \HWLúWLUPHQLQ SDUDVDO PDOL\HWLQL ELU

UHWLP PDOL\HWL IRQNVL\RQX ROXúWXUDUDN KHVDSODPD\D oDOÕúPÕúWÕU (UQVW (QJHO *RHWKH

Newton, Benjamin FraQNOLQ JLEL LQVDQODUÕQ YHULP GH÷HUOHULQLQ \LHOG YDOXH  \DQL

WRSOXPD NDWNÕODUÕQÕQ QHW ELU úHNLOGH EHOLUOHQHPH\HFH÷LQL LIDGH HWVH GH NHQGLOHULQLQ

\HWLúWLULOLSWRSOXPDND]DQGÕUÕOPDODUÕDLOHOHULQHEHOLUOLELUPDOL\HWJHWLUHFH÷LQGHQGROD\Õ

katlanÕOan bu maliyetLQWDKPLQHGLOHELOHFH÷LQL D\UÕFDEXPDOL\HWLQWRSOXPXQEXLQVDQODU

LoLQNDWODQGÕ÷ÕSDUDVDOGH÷HULQELU|OoVRODELOHFH÷LQLLIDGHHWPLúWLU[\DúÕQGDNLELU

ELUH\LoLQEXSDUDVDOGH÷HUúXIRUPOOHKHVDSODQDELOLU

Cx = co {1 +x+k [x(x+ 1)/2] }, (1.2) CxIRUPOGH[\DúÕQGDNLELUH\LoLQR]DPDQDNDGDU\HWLúWLULOPHVLQLQWRSODPPDOL\HWLQL

ifade etmektedir. coGR÷XP]DPDQÕQDNDGDUNDWODQÕODQPDOL\HWLJ|VWHUPHNWHGLU Engel EXQXoHúLWOL$OPDQVRV\DOVÕQÕIODUÕLoLQVÕUDVÕ\ODDPSLULNRODUDN 200 ve 300 mark RODUDNKHVDSODPÕúWÕUNPDOL\HWLQ\ÕOOÕNDUWÕúKÕ]ÕQÕLIDGHHWPHNWHGLU ve DPSLULNJ|]OHP

QHWLFHVLQGHRODUDNKHVDSODQPÕúWÕU%XIRUPOELUH\\DúÕQDXODúDQa( x 26 olana)

(21)

10

NDGDUX\JXODPÕúWÕU\DúÕQGDQVRQUDLVHELUH\(QJHO¶HJ|UHUHWLPLWDPDPODQPÕúELU

bireydir.7DEL EXUDGD úXQX EHOLUWPHPL] JHUHNLU 1DVÕO ELU PDO YH\D KL]PHWLQ UHWLP

PDOL\HWL LOH RQXQ HNRQRPLN GH÷HUL ELU GH÷LOVH LQVDQ LoLQ NDWODQÕODQ PDOLyetle onun HNRQRPLNGH÷HUL HNRQRPL\HNDWNÕVÕ ELUGH÷LOGLU (Aktaran: Kiker, 1966).

7KHRGRU :LWWVWHLQ   KHP )DUU¶ÕQ ND]DQFÕQ EXJQN GH÷HUL  KHP GH (UQVW¶LQ UHWLP PDOL\HWL \DNODúÕPÕ  \DNODúÕPODUÕQÕ LoHUHQ YH EHúHUL VHUPD\H\L EX \|QGH

GH÷HUOHQGLUHQ ELU oDOÕúPD \DSWÕ :LWWVWHLQ¶LQ EHúHUL VHUPD\H NDYUDPÕQD RODQ LOJLVL

|OPOHUGHQ ND\QDNODQDQ WD]PLQDW WDOHSOHULQH WHPHO RODUDN NXOODQÕODFDN UHKEHU ELU

oDOÕúPD\DSPDLVWH÷LQGHQGR÷PXúWXU:LWWVWHLQ¶LQYDUVD\ÕPODUÕQDJ|UHELUELUH\LQKD\DW

ER\X ND]DQFÕ RQXQ KD\DWÕQÕ VUGUHELOPHVL LoLQ NDWODQÕODQ KDUFDPDODU YH H÷LWLP

PDVUDIODUÕQÕQWRSODPÕQDHúLWVD\ÕOGÕ÷ÕLoLQEXoDOÕúPD)DUUYH(QJHO¶LQ oDOÕúPDODUÕ\OD

D\QÕWDKPLQOHULYHUPHNWHGLU$\UÕFDoDOÕúPDGL÷HUEDKVHGLOHQoDOÕúPDODUJLELGR÷XPGD

gelir ve masraflarlDEDúODPDNWDGÕUdDOÕúPDVÕúXIRUPOOHUOH|]HWOHQHELOLU

C(n) = aR(o) [L(o)/L(n)]rn - aR(n), (1.3)

C(n) = XR(N) [L(N)/L(n)PN-n - aR(n),

)RUPOGH D EHOOL ELU LúL RODQ KHUKDQJL ELU $OPDQ HUNH÷LQLQ H÷LWLPL GH LoHUHQ \ÕOOÕN

WNHWLPKDUFDPDODUÕQÕLIDGHHWPHNWHGLUU  L úHNOLQGHLIDGHHGLOPHNWHGLULEXUDGD

SL\DVD IDL] RUDQÕQÕ J|VWHUPHNWHGLU S   U  RODUDN LIDGH HGLOHELOLU / Q  EHOOL ELU Q

\DúÕQGD \DúD\DQ HUNHNOHULQ VD\ÕVÕQÕ 5 Q  \ÕOOÕN NDUSD\Õ |GHPHVLQLQ Q \DúÕQGD\NHQNL

GH÷HUL EHOLUOL ELU U RUDQÕQGD YH GR÷XPGD VDWÕQ DOÕQPÕú  ; LVH EHOOL ELU LúWH oDOÕúDQ

RUWDODPD ELU NLúLQLQ JHOHFHNWHNL UHWLPLQLQ GH÷HULQL YHUPHNWHGLU 1 LVH EX NLúLQLQ

LúJFQHGDKLOROGX÷X\DúÕLIDGH HWPHNWHGLU:LWWVWHLQ¶LQDQDOL]LLOJLQoROPDVÕQDNDUúÕQ

NLúLQLQKD\DWER\XJHOLULLOHKD\DWÕQÕGHYDPHWWLUHELOPHVLLoLQNDWODQDFD÷ÕPDOL\HWLQHúLW

ROGX÷X úHNOLQGHNL WHPHO YDUVD\ÕPÕ NDQÕWODQPÕú GH÷LOGLU. $\UÕFD ND]DQoODUÕQ EXJQN

GH÷HUL YH UHWLP PDOL\HWL \DNODúÕPODUÕQÕQ KHUKDQJL ELU NRPELQDV\RQXQX ROXúWXUDUDN

\DSÕODQ DQDOL] GH÷HUOHULQ PNHUUHU DQDOL]H VRNXOPDVÕ WHKOLNHVLQGHQ GROD\Õ \DQOÕú

VRQXoODUDQHGHQRODELOLU Aktaran: Kiker, 1966).

Schumpeter (1911  \DUDWÕFÕ \ÕNÕP-\HQLOLNOHU YH PWHúHEELVH YHUGL÷L |QHP DoÕVÕQGDQ

EDNÕOGÕ÷ÕQGDLNWLVDGLE\PHNXUDPÕQDE\NNDWNÕGDEXOXQPXúWXU6FKXPSHWHU¶HJ|UH

E\PHQLQ JHUoHN QHGHQL QIXV DUWÕúÕ YH VHUPD\H PDOODUÕQGDNL DUWÕúODU GH÷LO

(22)

11

\HQLOLNOHUGLU <HQLOLNOHU LVH NDSLWDOLVW UHWLP VLVWHPL LoHULVLQGH PWHúHEELV WDUDIÕQGDQ

iktisadi hayata dahil edilir<HQLOLNOHULQPWHúHEELV \DQLLQVDQ \ROX\ODRUWD\DDWÕOPDVÕ

YH E\PHQLQ EX \ROOD RUWD\D oÕNPDVÕ 6FKXPSHWHU¶LQ EHúHUL VHUPD\H\H GH÷LQPLú

ROGX÷XDQODPÕQDJHOPHNWHGLU0WHúHEELV\HQLOL÷LRUWD\DDWPDVÕ\ODPRQRSROFNRQXPD JHoLSNDUJHOLULHOGHHWPH\HEDúODU$QFDNPWHúHEELVLQ\HQLOL÷LX\JXOD\DUDNNDUJHOLUL

HOGHHWPHVLEDúNDPWHúHEELVOHULGHKDUHNHWHJHoLUHUHN\HQLOL÷LQHQGVWUL\H\D\ÕOPDVÕQD

\RODoPDNWDGÕUgWH \DQGDQ\HQLOL÷LQGL÷HUHQGVWULOHUGH EDúND yeniliklere yol DoPDVÕ

HNRQRPLGH JLWJLGH RWRQRP \DWÕUÕP KDFPLQL FLGGL ELoLPGH DUWÕUDUDN E\PH\H |QHPOL

NDWNÕGD EXOXQXU %\PHQLQ ND\QD÷Õ RODQ \HQLOLNOHULQ-WHNQRORMLN JHOLúPHOHULQ

PWHúHEELVOHUFH VD÷ODQPDVÕ NDSLWDOLVW ELU HNRQRPLGH E\PHQLQ GÕúVDO GH÷LO LoVHO

ROGX÷XQXQ ELUJ|VWHUJHVLGLU Aktaran: hQVDO 

'XEOLQYH/RWND  KD\DWVLJRUWDVÕQRNWDVÕQGDQEHúHULVHUPD\H\H\DNODúPÕúODUGÕU

<DSWÕNODUÕoDOÕúPDúXIRUPOOHJ|VWHULOHELOLU

Vo ™YxPx( yxEx - cx) (1.4) Vo ELU NLúLQLQ GR÷XPGDNL GH÷HULQL LIDGH HWPHNWHGLU Yx = (1 + i) ±x  GRODUÕQ [ \ÕO

VRQUDNLGH÷HULQL3xGR÷DQELUELUH\LQ[\DúÕQDNDGDU\DúDPDLKWLPDOLQLifade eder. yx, ELUNLúLQLQ[\DúÕLOH[\DúÕDUDVÕQGDNL\ÕOOÕNND]DQFÕQÕJ|VWHUPHNWHGLU(x[\DúÕQGDQ

[\DúÕQDNDGDULVWLKGDPHGLOHQELUH\OHULQRUDQÕQÕJ|VWHUPHNWHGLUFxLVHELUH\LQ[\DúÕ

LOH[ \DúDUDOÕ÷ÕQGD \DúDPPDOL\HWLGLU%HOOLELU \DúWDNLELUH\LQSDUDVDOGH÷HULQL

(\DQLD KHVDSODPDNLoLQIRUPOúXúHNLOGHJHOLúWLULOHELOLU

Va =(Po /Pa >™Yx-aPx( yxEx - cx)] (1.5)

%X úHNLOGH ELUH\LQ ND]DQoODUÕQÕQ EXJQN GH÷HULQLQ EHOLUOHQPHVL\OH WNHWLPLQLQ

oÕNDUWÕOPDVÕWDKPLQOHUGHED]ÕNROD\OÕNODUVD÷ODPDNWDGÕUgUQH÷LQELUH\LQDLOHVLQHRODQ

HNRQRPLNNDWNÕVÕKHVDSODQDELOPHNWHGLU (Aktaran: Kiker, 1966).

'XEOLQ   \DSWÕ÷Õ ELU oDOÕúPD QHWLFHVLQGH  LoLQ $%'¶GH  QIXVXQ  VHUPD\H

GH÷HULQLQ fiziksel sermaye stokXQXQ  NDWÕ GH÷HULQH VDKLS ROGX÷XQX EHOLUOHPLúWLU (Aktaran: Kiker,1966).

:DOVK  ¶H J|UH H÷LWLPH \DSÕODQ KDUFDPDODU NDU PDNVLPL]DV\RQX DPDFÕyla

\DSÕOPDNWDGÕU$\UÕFDEXKDUFDPDODUfiziksel VHUPD\H\DWÕUÕPODUÕQDQHGHQRODQLNWLVDGL

(23)

12

JGOHULGHKDUHNHWHJHoLUPHNWHGLU:DOVK¶DJ|UHRUWDRNXOYHLONRNXOH÷LWLPLVL\DVLYH

NOWUHO QHGHQOHUOH \DSÕOÕUNHQ RUWDRNXO VRQUDVÕ H÷LWLP HNRQRPLN QHGHQOHUH

dayDQPDNWDGÕU %XQDHNRODUDNRUWDRNXOVRQUDVÕ H÷LWLPLQGHELUIÕUVDWPDOL\HWLYDUGÕU

:DOVK RUWDRNXO VRQUDVÕ H÷LWLPLQ JHWLULVLQLQ IÕUVDW PDOL\HWLQL JHoWL÷LQL EXOPXúWXU

(Aktaran: Savvides ve Stengos, 2009).

<XNDUÕGDEDKVHWWL÷LPL]\DNODúÕPODUKHUQHNDGDU,, 'Q\D6DYDúÕ|QFHVLQGHEHOLUWLOPLú

ROVDGD,,'Q\D6DYDúÕ|QFHVLJHQHOH÷LOLPEHúHULVHUPD\H\LVHUPD\HIRUPDV\RQXQD

GDKLOHWPHPH\|QQGH\GL%HúHULVHUPD\H\OHLOJLOLWHRULNWDUWÕúPDODU\DSÕOGÕ÷ÕQGDDPDo

EHúHUL VHUPD\H\L WDQÕPODPDN YH\D E\PH\H NDWNÕVÕQÕ |OoPHN GH÷LOGL 6DYYLGHs ve 6WHQJRV .LNHU  ¶LQEHOLUWWL÷LJLELEHúHULVHUPD\HoDOÕúPDODUÕGDKDoRNúX

DOWÕ QHGHQ HWUDIÕQGD WRSODQPDNWD\GÕ   ELU GHYOHWLQ JFQ J|VWHUPHN   H÷LWLP

VD÷OÕN YH J|oQ HNRQRPLN HWNLOHULQL EHOLUOHPHN   YHUJL SROLWLNDVÕ   VDYDú

PDOL\HWOHULQL EHOLUOHPHN   NDPX\X KD\DWÕ YH VD÷OÕ÷Õ NRUXPDVÕ QRNWDVÕQGD X\DUPDN

D\UÕFD ELUH\LQ HNRQRPLN KD\DWÕQÕQ DLOHVLQH YH ONHVLQH RODQ NDWNÕVÕQÕQ |QHPLQL

YXUJXODPDN   PDKNHPHOHUGH |OP YH \DUDODQPDODUOD LOJLOL WD]PLQDWOar konusunda DGLONDUDUODUYHULOPHVLQLVD÷ODPDN .LNHU6DYYLGHVYH6WHQJRV 

%HúHULVHUPD\HQLQ|QHPLQLYXUJXOD\DQ|QFoDOÕúPDODU¶OHULQVRQODUÕYH¶ODUÕQ

EDúODUÕQGD6FKXOW]YH%HFNHU¶LQoDOÕúPDODUÕ\ODEDúODGÕ6FKXOW]H÷LWLPLLQVDQD \DSÕODQ

\DWÕUÕPRODUDNGH÷HUOHQGLUPLúWLU(÷LWLPR]DPDQDNDGDULúLQLQHKOLYHVRUXPOXOXNVDKLEL

ELUH\OHU \HWLúWLUPH DUDFÕ RODUDN EHQLPVHQPLú YH H÷LWLPLQ HNRQRPLN \|QQH ID]Oa GH÷LQLOPHPLúWL 6FKXOW]   H÷LWLPLQ HNRQRPLN \|QQH GH÷LQPHQLQ KLoELU úHNLOGe RQXQ NOWUHO \|QQ DOoDOWPD\DFD÷ÕQÕ ELODNLV NXYYHWOHQGLUHFH÷LQL LIDGH HWPLúWLU

6FKXOW]NDELOL\HWOHUGHJHOLúPHELOJLGHQH\LPYHLoJ|oJLELXQVXUODUÕQEHúHULVHUPD\H\L

HWNLOHGL÷LQL GH EHOLUWPLúWLU 6FKXOW]¶D J|UH EHúHUL VHUPD\H\L JHOLúWLULFL IDDOL\HWOHU EHú

NDWHJRULGH LQFHOHQHELOLU   VD÷OÕN LPNDQODUÕ YH KL]PHWOHUL   ILUPDODUFD RUJDQL]H

HGLOHQHVNLWDU]oÕUDNOÕNH÷LWLPLQLGHLoHUHQLúGHQH\LPL  UHVPLRODUDNYHULOHQLONRUWD

YH \NVHN G]H\GH H÷LWLP   ILUPDODUFD G]HQOHQPH\HQ WDUÕPÕ GD NDSVD\DQ oDOÕúPD

SURJUDPODUÕ   Lú IÕUVDWODUÕQGDQ GROD\Õ ELUH\ YH DLOHOHULQ J|o HWPHVL 6FKXOW]¶D J|UH

EHúHUL VHUPD\H KHVDED NDWÕOGÕ÷Õ WDNGLUGH HNRQRPLN E\PH\L DQODPD \ROXQGDNL ED]Õ

SDUDGRNVODU YH G÷POHU o|]OHELOLU øON RODUDN L  E\PH VUHFLQGH J|]lenen sermaye-KDVÕOD NDWVD\ÕVÕQGDNL Gúú EHúHUL VHUPD\HQLQ GÕúODQPDVÕ VRQXFX VHUPD\HQLQ

(24)

13

VDGHFH IL]LNVHO VHUPD\H RODUDN GH÷HUOHQGLULOPHVLQGHQ ND\QDNODQPDNWDGÕU (ii) gelir DUWÕúÕQÕQ DoÕNODQDPD\DQ ELOHúHQL $%'¶GH JLWWLNoH DUWPDNWDGÕU; (iii) iúoLOHULQ UHHO

kD]DQoODUÕQGDNL E\N DUWÕúODU EHúHUL VHUPD\H \DWÕUÕPÕQÕQ JHWLULVL RODUDN DoÕNODQDELOLU

%XQODUDHNRODUDN,,'Q\D6DYDúÕVRQUDVÕVD÷ODQDQE\NHNRQRPLNJHOLúPH IL]LNVHO

VHUPD\HGHNL \ÕNÕPÕ KHVDED NDWDUVDN  EHúHUL VHUPD\H ile PDNXO ELU úHNLOGH

DoÕNODQDELOPHNWHGLU 6FKXOW] H÷LWLPLQ PLOOL JHOLUGHNL DUWÕúÕQ DoÕNODQDPD\DQ NÕVPÕQÕ

DoÕNODGÕ÷ÕQÕ LIDGH HGHUHN RNXOGD EXOXQPDQÕQ IÕUVDW PDOL\HWL YH RNXOODU LoLQ WHGDULN

HGLOHQND\QDNODUÕQWRSODPPDOL\HWOHULLOHH÷LWLPLQHNRQRPL\HNDWNÕVÕQÕWDKPLQHWPLúWLU

Schultz, QHWLFHGH úX LNL |QHPOL SROLWLND oÕNDUÕPÕQD XODúPÕúWÕU   %HúHUL VHUPD\H\H

\DSÕODQNDPX\DWÕUÕPODUÕJHOLUL\HQLGHQGD÷ÕWÕFÕELUDUDoUROQR\QDUYHH÷LWLPEHúHUL

VHUPD\H \DWÕUÕPODUÕQÕQ EX UROQ GDKD GD JHOLúWLULU   $] JHOLúPLú ONHOHU  fiziksel serPD\H\DWÕUÕPODUÕQGDQ]L\DGHEHúHULVHUPD\H\DWÕUÕPODUÕQDRGDNODQPDOÕGÕUODU (Schultz, 1961; Savvides ve Stengos, 2009).

6FKXOW]  ¶XQ $%' LoLQ \DSWÕ÷Õ oDOÕúPD\D J|UH OLVH |÷UHQFLOHUL  KDIWDOÕN NROHM

|÷UHQFLOHUL LVH  KDIWDOÕN LPDODW VDQD\LL ND]DQFÕQGDQ YD]JHoPLúOHUGLU 6FKXOW] -

\ÕOODUÕDUDVÕQGD¶DU\ÕOOÕNDUDODUODOLVHYHQLYHUVLWH|÷UHQFLOHULQLQYD]JHoWLNOHUL

\ÕOOÕNND]DQoODUÕFDULIL\DWODUDJ|UHKHVDSODGÕ$\UÕFDLONYHRUWDRNXODD\UÕODQND\QDNODUÕ

GDIÕUVDWPDOL\HWLQHHNOHGL%XúHNLOGHH÷LWLPLQWRSODPPDOL\HWLQHXODúPÕúWÕU 7DELLNL

LONRNXOGD RNX\DQ oRFXNODU LoLQ ELU YD]JHoLOHQ ND]DQo GXUXPX V|] NRQXVX GH÷LOGLU 

$QDOL]LQ úDúÕUWÕFÕ ELU VRQXFX OLVH LoLQ YD]JHoLOHQ ND]DQoODUÕQ EWQ \ÕOODU LoLQ WRSODP

PDOL\HWLQ\DUÕVÕQGDQID]ODVÕQÕNDSVÕ\RUROPDVÕ\GÕ%XGXUXPQLYHUVLWHH÷LWLPLLoLQGH

oR÷X \ÕOGD JHoHUOL\GL %WQ H÷LWLP VHYL\HOHULQL ELUGHQ HOH DOÕQFD ¶GD YD]JHoLOHQ

ND]DQoODU H÷LWLP PDVUDIODUÕQÕQ  ¶VÕQÕ ROXúWXUXUNHQ  LVH  ¶Q WHúNLO

etmekteydi. Schultz, bu periyotta (1900-  H÷LWLP JLUGLOHULQLQ IL]LNVHO VHUPD\H

ROXúXPXQGDQGDKDKÕ]OÕELUúHNLOGHDUWWÕ÷ÕQÕEHOLUWPLúWLU(÷HUH÷LWLPHD\UÕODQND\QDNODU

EHúHULVHUPD\H\DWÕUÕPÕRODUDNDOÕQÕUVDEX\DWÕUÕPÕQJHWLULRUDQÕH÷LWLPGHGDKDE\N

ND\QDN ELULNLPLQL VD÷ODPDN LoLQ \DSÕODQ IL]LNVHO \DWÕUÕP RUDQÕQGDQ GDKD E\N

ROPDOÕGÕU<LUPLQFL\]\ÕOÕQELULQFL\DUÕVÕER\XQFDIDUNOÕH÷LWLPG]H\OHULLoLQDNWDUÕODQ

ND\QDNODUÕQ PDOL\HWL KHP PXWODN KHP QLVSL RODUDN DUWPÕúWÕU 6FKXOW]¶XQ

KHVDSODPDODUÕQGDQ G|UW VRQXo RUWD\D oÕNPDNWDGÕU:    \ÕOÕQGD ]RUXQOX LONRNXO

H÷LWLPL fiziksel VHUPD\H ELULNLPLQLQ  ¶LQL DoÕNODUNHQ ¶GD  ¶XQX

DoÕNODPDNWDGÕU  RUWDRNXOH÷LWLPLQLQPDOL\HWLEXSHUL\RWWDoRNDUWPÕúWÕU\ÕOÕQGD

(25)

14

fiziksel VHUPD\H ROXúXPXQXQ ¶VL NDGDUNHQ ¶GD LVH ¶e \NVHOPLúWLU; (3)

QLYHUVLWHH÷LWLPLLoLQGHWUHQGRUWDRNXOH÷LWLPLQHEHQ]HUúHNLOGHVH\UHWPHNWHGLU

\ÕOÕQGDfiziksel VHUPD\HROXúXPXQXQ¶VLLNHQ\ÕOÕQGDµVLQHXODúPÕúWÕU; (4) e÷LWLPH Karcanan kaynaklar fiziksel VHUPD\H ROXúXPXQD DNWDUÕODQ ND\QDNODUGDQ GDKD

KÕ]OÕ ELU úHNLOGH DUWPÕúWÕU +HU o H÷LWLP G]H\LQH DNWDUÕODQ ND\QDNODU  \ÕOÕQGD

fiziksel VHUPD\H ROXúXPXQXQ  ¶XQX DoÕNODQÕUNHQ  \ÕOÕ LoLQ EX RUDQ  ¶WU.

(Savvides ve Stengos, 2009; Schultz, 1960).

%HFNHU   LON RODUDN \DSWÕ÷Õ oDOÕúPDVÕQGD JHOHFHNWHNL UHHO JHOLUL EHúHUL VHUPD\H

\DWÕUÕPODUÕ\OD DoÕNODPD\D oDOÕúPÕúWÕU %HFNHU LúJFQQ IL]LNVHO YH UXKVDO VD÷OÕ÷ÕQÕ

JHOLúWLUPHN LoLQ \DSÕODFDN \DWÕUÕPODUÕQ  |QHPOL ELU EHúHUL VHUPD\H  \DWÕUÕPÕ ROGX÷XQX

LIDGH HWPLúWLU %HFNHUH J|UH ONHOHU DUDVÕQGDNL UHIDK IDUNOÕOÕNODUÕQÕQ QHGHQL IL]LNVHO

VHUPD\H \DWÕUÕPODUÕQGDQ ]L\DGH EHúHUL VHUPD\H \DWÕUÕPODUÕQD GD\DQPDNWDGÕU %HFNHU

RNXO H÷LWLPLQLQ Lú GHQH\LPL LOH ELUOLNWH NLúLQLQ H÷LWLP G]H\LQL JHOLúWLUHQ ELU XQVXU

ROGX÷XQX LIDGH HWPLúWLU hONHOHU DUDVÕQGDNL JHOLU IDUNOÕOÕNODUÕQÕQ nDVÕO VHEHEL EHúHUL

VHUPD\HLVHELUH\OHUDUDVÕQGDNLJHOLUIDUNOÕOÕ÷ÕQÕQVHEHEL de EHúHULVHUPD\HGLU%HFNHU

oDOÕúPDVÕQGD $PHULNDGDNL OLVH YH NROHM H÷LWLPLnin parasal getirisini tahmin etmeye oDOÕúPÕúWÕUøúGHQH\LPLQLQGL÷HUEHúHULVHUPD\HWUOHULQHJ|UHJHOLU]HULQGHGDKDHWNLOL

ROGX÷XQXEHOLUWPLúWLU%HFNHU  LúGHQH\LPLQLJHQHOYH|]HOLúGHQH\LPLRODUDNHOH

DOPÕúWÕU 7DEL EXUDGD Lú GHQH\LPL RODUDN 7UNoH¶\H oHYULOHQ µRQ-the-MRE WUDLQLQJ¶

LIDGHVLQLQ HNVLN ELU oHYLUL ROGX÷XQX YH KHP GHQH\LPL KHP GH Lú HVQDVÕQGDNL H÷LWLPL

LIDGHHWWL÷LQLEHOLUWPHOL\L] *HQHOLúGHQH\LPLQLQ JHQHUDOWUDLQLQJ KHPHQKHPHQEWQ

ILUPDODUGD D\QÕ PLNWDUGD LúJFQQ PDUMLQDO YHULPOLOL÷LQL DUWÕUDQ H÷LWLP YH GHQH\LPL

LIDGH HWWL÷LQL EHOLUWPLúWLU g]HO Lú GHQH\LPLQL VSHFLILF WUDLQLQJ  LVH ILUPDGDQ ILUPD\D

IDUNOÕOÕN J|VWHUHQ PLNWDUODUGD LúJFQQ YHULPOLOL÷LQL DUWÕUDQ ELU GHQH\LP WU RODUDN

WDQÕPODPÕúWÕU

Romer (1986) $UURZ¶XQ  WDULKOL PDNDOHVLQGH JHOLúWLUGL÷L µ\DSDUDN |÷UHQPH¶

NDYUDPÕQDGD\DQDUDNELUPRGHOJHOLúPLúWLU5RPHUPDNDOHVLQGHWHNQRORML\LGDKDHWNLQ

UHWLPL PPNQ NÕODQ ELOJL VWRNXQGDNL DUWÕú RODUDN WDQÕPODPÕúWÕU 5RPHU WHNQRORMLN

JHOLúPH\L ILUPDODUÕQ AR-*( IDDOL\HWOHULQLQ ELOLQoOL ELU UQ RODUDN GH÷LO UHWLP

IDDOL\HWOHULQ ELU \DQ UQ RODUDN EHOLUWPLúWLU 5RPHU¶LQ PRGHOLQGH WHNQRORMLN

JHOLúPHQLQELU\DQUQNDEXOHGLOPHVLWHNQRORMLQLQEHOOLELUHNPDOL\HWHNDWODQPDGDQ

(26)

15

UHWLOGL÷L DQODPÕQD JHOPHNWHGLU $\UÕFD PRGHOGH ILUPDQÕQ UHWLP IDDOL\HWOHUL |OoH÷e J|UHVDELWJHWLUL\HWDELGLU5RPHUPRGHOLQGHµ\DSDUDN|÷UHQPHYHELOJLQLQ\D\ÕOPDVÕ¶

DUJPDQODUÕ NXOODQÕOPDNWDGÕU <DSDUDN |÷UHQPH DUJPDQÕQD J|UH ELU ILUPD \DWÕUÕm

\DSWÕ÷ÕQGDVDGHFHVHUPD\HVWRNunu dH÷LOD\QÕ]DPDQGDELOJLVWRkXQXGDDUWÕUÕU%LOJLQLQ

\D\ÕOPDVÕ DUJPDQÕQD J|UHLVHKHUILUPDGL÷HUILUPDODUÕQELOJLVWRNXQDVÕIÕUPDOL\HWOH

XODúDELOLU 'ROD\ÕVÕ\OD WHNQRORMLN ELOJL EWQ SL\DVD\D \D\ÕOÕU YH HNRQRPLGHNL EWQ

ILUPDODUÕQWHNQRORML-ELOJLG]H\LHúLWWLU Aktaran: hQVDO 

/XFDV PRGHOLQL  WDULKOL $UURZ¶XQ PDNDOHVLQGH JHOLúWLUGL÷L \DSDUDN |÷UHQPH

NDYUDPÕQÕ  DQDOL]H GDKLO HGHUHN NXUPXúWXU /XFDV  ¶ÕQ JHOLúWLUGL÷L PRGHOH J|UH

EHúHUL VHUPD\HQLQ \NVHN ROGX÷X RUWDPODUGD KHU \HWHQHN Gzeyindeki insanlar daha YHULPOL ROPDNWDGÕU %XQXQ VHEHEL LVH EHúHUL VHUPD\HQLQ WDúPD HWNLOHUL \ROX\OD GÕúVDO

\DUDUODUVD÷ODPDVÕGÕU%HúHULVHUPD\HQLQGR÷UXYHYHULPOLNXOODQÕOPDPDVÕGXUXPXQGD

LVH EH\LQ J|o NDoÕQÕOPD] ELU VRQXo RODUDN RUWD\D oÕNPDNWDGÕU /XFDV¶D J|UH ELUH\LQ

EHúHUL VHUPD\HVLQGHNL DUWÕúÕQ KHP ELUH\LQ NHQGL YHULPOLOL÷LQH KHP GH GL÷HU UHWLP

IDNW|UOHULQLQ YHULPOLOL÷LQH NDWNÕVÕ E\NWU YH EX GXUXP VUGUOHELOLU E\PH\L

VD÷ODPDNWDGÕU$\UÕFDEHúHULVHUPD\HELULNLPLQLQE\PH]HULQGHIL]LNVHl sermayeden GDKDHWNLOLRODFD÷ÕQÕLIDGHHWPLúWLU /XFDV*HQoR÷OX /XFDVKNPHWOHULQ

H÷LWLPHYHWHNQRORMLNJHOLúPHQLQVD÷ODQPDVÕQD\|QHOLNKHUWUO\DWÕUÕPÕQÕQHNRQRPLN

E\PH\HROXPOXNDWNÕGDEXOXQDFD÷ÕQÕEHOLUWPLúWLU/XFDV¶DJ|UHLúJFQn mobilitesi VD÷ODQGÕ÷ÕQGD KHUúH\ LúJFQQ YHULPOLOL÷LQLQ \DOQÕ]FD NHQGLVLQLQ PL \RNVD WDúPD

HWNLOHUL\ROX\ODEDúNDVÕQDGDPÕHWNLHGLSHWPHGL÷LQHED÷OÕGÕU6DGHFHLNLQFLGXUXPGD

WDúPDHWNLOHUL\ROX\ODELULQVDQGDQGL÷HULQHEHúHULVHUPD\HGHNLYHULPOLOLN DUWÕúÕVLUD\HW

HWWL÷LQGH  EHOOL ELU \HWHQH÷H VDKLS RODQ  LúJFQQ FUHW VHYL\HVL LVWLKGDP HGLOGL÷L

ONHQLQ]HQJLQOL÷L\OHELUOLNWHDUWDFDNWÕUøúJFQQPRELOLWHVL KDUHNHWVHUEHVWLVL YDUVD

IDNLU ONHOHUGHQ ]HQJLQ ONHOHUH J|o HGHFHNWLU /XFDV¶D J|re kurGX÷X PRGHOLQ

neticesinde o VRQXo RUWD\D oÕNPÕúWÕU %X VRQXolar hem ABD ekonomisinin son

\]\ÕOOÕN KLND\HVLQL DQODWPDNWD KHP GH GQ\D HNRQRPLVLQLQ JHQHO |]HOOLNOHULQH

X\PDNWDGÕU ) hONHOHU DUDVÕQGD gelir sevL\HOHULQGHNL E\N IDUNOÕOÕNODU PH\GDQD

JHOPLúWLr. (2) BWQ JHOLU G]H\OHULQGH NLúL EDúÕQD JHOLU PLNWDUÕQGD NDOÕFÕ

VUGUOHELOHQ ELUE\PHVD÷ODQPÕúWÕU (3) B\PHRUDQODUÕQÕQIDUNOÕODúPDVÕQDdair KHUKDQJLEDUL]ELUH÷LOLP olmamÕúWÕU.

(27)

16

Mankiw-5RPHU YH :HLOLQ 05:   \ÕOÕQGD JHOLúWLUGL÷L PRGHO 6RORZ E\PH

PRGHOLQLQEHúHULVHUPD\HGDKLOHGLOPLúKDOLRODUDNNDEXOHGLOPHNWHGLU&REE-Douglas

UHWLP IRQNVL\RQXQD EHúHUL VHUPD\H\L GDKLO HWPLúOHU YH EHúHUL VHUPD\HQLQ ]DPDQOD

DUWWÕ÷ÕQÕNDEXOHWPLúOHUGLU0DQNLZ- Romer -:HLOHJ|UHIDUNOÕWDVDUUXIRUDQODUÕYHQIXV

\DSÕODUÕQDVDKLSRODQONHOHUIDUNOÕGXUD÷DQGXUXPGHQJHVLQHXODúDFDNODUGÕU<DSWÕNODUÕ

DQDOL] QHWLFHVLQGH NXUGXNODUÕ PRGHOLQ ONHOHULQ NLúL EDúÕQD PLOOL JHOLU G]H\OHULQLQ 

LQLDoÕNODGÕ÷ÕVRQXFXQDXODúPÕúODUGÕU

(28)

17

%g/h0  (.2120ø. %h<h0( 9( %(ù(5ø 6(50$<(

02'(//(5ø

(.2120ø.%h<h0(02'(//(5ø

62/2:%h<h0(02'(/ø

0RGHOLQ7HPHO<DSÕVÕ

Y(t)=F[K(t),L(t),T(t)] (2.1) úHNOLQGHLIDGHHGLOHQPRGHO]DPDQDED÷OՁoWHPHOGH÷LúNHQGHQROXúPDNWDGÕU

. W  IL]LNVHO VHUPD\H\L LIDGH HWPHNWHGLU %XUDGD |QHPOL RODQ QRNWD LVH VHUmayenin 6RORZPRGHOLQGHUDNLSJLUGLNDEXOHGLOPHVLGLU%XUDGDµUDNLSOLN¶NDYUDPÕELUJLUGLQLQ

D\QÕDQGDLNL\HUGHELUGHQNXOODQÕODPDPDVÕQÕLIDGHHWPHNWHGLU

0RGHOGHNLLNLQFLJLUGL/ W LúJFQLIDGHHWPHNWHGLUøúJFGHD\QÕDQGDLNL\HUGH

birden bulunDPD\DFD÷ÕLoLQUDNLSJLUGLNDEXOHGLOPHNWHGLU

hoQF JLUGL RODQ 7 W  LVH WHNQRORML VHYL\HVL YH\D ELOJL VHYL\HVLQL LIDGH HWPHNWHGLU

Teknolojik bilgi ise modelde rakip olmayan bir girdi olarak kabul edilmektedir. Bunun DQODPÕ úXGXU øNL \D GD GDKD ID]OD UHWLFL D\QÕ ]DPDQGD D\QÕ WHNQRORMLN ELOJL\H

GD\DQDUDNUHWLP\DSDELOPHNWHGLU

+NPHWKDUFDPDODUÕQÕQROPDGÕ÷ÕNDSDOÕELUHNRQRPLGHPLOOLJHOLUWNHWLPYH\DWÕUÕP

KDUFDPDODUÕWRSODPÕQDHúLWWLU

Y t C t I t (2.2)

0LOOLJHOLUGHQWNHWLPKDUFDPDODUÕoÕNDUÕOGÕ÷ÕWDNGLUGHWDVDUUXIPLNWDUÕQDXODúÕOÕU6 W   Y(t) - & W 7DVDUUXIPLNWDUÕGDPRGHOGH\DWÕUÕPODUDHúLWWLU6 t)=I(t). Modelde marjinal WDVDUUXIH÷LOLPLVGÕúVDORODUDNEHOLUOHQPLúLOHDUDVÕQGDELUGH÷HUGLU7DVDUUXIODUÕQ

\DWÕUÕPODUD HúLW ROGX÷X WDVDUUXIODUÕQ GR÷UXGDQ \DWÕUÕPODUD NDQDOL]H HGLOGL÷L  GúQOG÷QGH WRSODP \DWÕUÕP PDUMLQDO WDVDUUXI H÷LOLPL LOH PLOOL JHOLULQ oDUSÕPÕQD

HúLWWLU

. , ,

I t s F K t L t T t (2.3)

(29)

18

Modelde fiziksel sermaye, K(W  VDELW ELU \ÕSUDQPD RUDQÕQD į VDKLSWLU 'ROD\ÕVÕ\OD

fiziksel sermaye stokXQGDNL QHW DUWÕú EUW \DWÕUÕPODUGDQ VHUPD\H VWRkundaki

\ÕSUDQPDQÕQoÕNDUÕOPDVÕ\ODHOGHHGLOLU

(t )= I(t) - į. W V)>. W / W 7 W @- į. W  (2.4) Burada K(t LIDGHVL]DPDQJHoWLNoH. W ¶GHNLGH÷LúLPLLIDGHHWPHNWHGLU> W ˜K W ˜W@.

1HRNODVLNhUHWLP)RQNVL\RQX

$úD÷ÕGDNL G|UW NRúXO VD÷ODQGÕ÷Õ WDNGLUGH ELU UHWLP IRQNVL\RQX QHRNODVLN UHWLP

fonksiyonudur (Barro ve Sala-i Martin, 2004).

gOoH÷HJ|UHVDELWJHWLUL hUHWLPIDNW|UOHULQGHQRODQHPHNYHVHUPD\HJLUGLOHULQNDW

DUWWÕ÷ÕQGD UHWLP GH Q NDW DUWÕ\RU GHPHNWLU %XUDGD NRS\DODPD DUJPDQÕ UHSOLFDWLRQ

DUJXPHQW  GHQLOHQ ELU NDYUDP NDUúÕPÕ]D oÕNPDNWDGÕU %LU ILUPD UHWLPLQL LNL NDWÕQD

oÕNDUPDNLVWHGL÷LQGHVDKLSROGX÷XUHWLPWHVLVLQLQ\DQÕQDHVNLVL\OHD\QÕPLNWDUGDHPHN

YH IL]LNVHO VHUPD\H LoHUHQ  LNLQFL ELU IDEULND \DSDUDN UHWLPLQL LNL NDWÕQD oÕNDUDELOLU

Burada emek ve sermaye girdilerinin rakip girdiler ROPDVÕQGDQ D\QÕ DQGD LNL \HUGH

ELUGHQNXOODQÕODPDPDVÕQGDQ GROD\ՁUHWLPLQLLNLNDWÕQDoÕNDUPDNLVWH\HQILUPDUHWLP

IDNW|UOHULQL GH LNL NDWÕQD oÕNDUPDN ]RUXQGD NDOPÕúWÕU $QFDN WHNQRORMLN ELOJL ILUPDQÕQ

NXOODQGÕ÷Õ UHWLP IRUPO   UDNLS ROPD\DQ ELU JLUGL D\QÕ DQGD EDúND \HUOHUGH

NXOODQÕODELOHQ ROPDVÕQGDQGROD\ՁUHWLPLLNLNDWÕQDoÕNDUPDNLoLQWHNQRORML\LLNLNDWÕQD

oÕNDUPDN JHUHNPH] %X DoÕNODPDODUD GD\DQDUDN |OoH÷H J|UH JHWLUL GXUXPX úX úHNLOGH

ifade edilebilir:

Y= F(K, L, T), F( nK, nL, T) = n.F(K, L, T)=nY (2.5) hUHWLPJLUGLOHULQGHD]DODQmarjinal verimlilik: %WQ.!YH/!GXUXPODUÕLoLQ

UHWLP IRQNVL\RQX SR]LWLI YH JLWWLNoH D]DODQ PDUMLQDO UQOHUH VDKLSWLU <DQL 6RORZ

E\PHPRGHOLQGHKHUELUIDNW|UD]DODQJHWLUL\HVDKLSWLU

˜)˜.!2˜2)˜2K < 0 (2.6)

˜)˜/!2˜2)˜2L < 0

(30)

19

1HRNODVLN UHWLP WHRULVLQH J|UH WHNQRORML G]H\L YH LúJF VDbit tutulursa, her ilave VHUPD\H PLNWDUÕ UHWLPL DUWÕUDFDN IDNDW EX DUWÕú ELU |QFHNL LODYH VHUPD\HQLQ VHEHS

ROGX÷XoÕNWÕDUWÕúÕQGDQ (VHUPD\HQLQPDUMLQDOUQnden GDKDD]RODFDNWÕU

,QDGDNRúXOODUÕ 1HRNODVLNUHWLPIRQNVL\RQXQGDELUUHWLPIDNW|UQQ (sermaye veya LúJF PDUMLQDOUQRUHWLPIDNW|UQQPLNWDUÕVÕIÕUD\DNODúÕUNHQVRQVX]DVRQVX]D

\DNODúÕUNHQVÕIÕUD\DNODúPDNWDGÕU

Lim K ĺ = Lim /ĺ ’ (2.7)

Lim K ĺ’ = Lim L ĺ’ = 0

Gereklilik (Essentiality): %LU UHWLPLQ VRQXFXQGD H÷HU SR]LWLI oÕNWÕ HOGH HGLOPHN

LVWHQL\RUVDRUHWLPLQJLUGLOHULPXWODNDSR]LWLIPLNWDUGDROPDOÕGÕU%XGXUXP) /   F(K,0) = 0 úHNOLQGHLIDGHHGLOHELOLU %DUURYH6DOD-i Martin, 2004).

Cobb ± 'RXJODVELoLPLQGHNL1HRNODVLNUHWLPIRQNVL\RQXúXúHNLOGH\D]ÕOPDNWDGÕU

Y = KĮ L1-Į (2.8)

%XUDGDĮ, LOHDUDVÕQGDELUGH÷HUDOPDNWDGÕU.YH/GH÷LúNHQOHULQLQNDWVD\ÕODUÕQÕQ

WRSODPÕQÕQROPDVÕ|OoH÷HJ|UHVDELWJHWLUL\LLIDGHHWPHNWHGLU

0RGHOGHVHUPD\HELULNLPLWDVDUUXIDUWÕúÕ\ROX\ODROPDNWDGÕU7DVDUUXIRUDQÕ V LVHLOe

 DUDVÕQGD ELU GH÷HU DODQ YH oÕNWÕQÕQ QH NDGDUOÕN ELU \]GHVLQLQ WDVDUUXI HGLOHFH÷LQL

J|VWHUHQ ELU RUDQGÕU 7DVDUUXI IRQNVL\RQX LVH 6  V<  úHNOLQGH oÕNWÕ\D ED÷OÕ ELU

IRQNVL\RQúHNOLQGHLIDGHHGLOHELOLU0RGHOGHWDVDUUXIODU\ROX\ODHOGHHGLOHQVHUPD\HQLQ įLOHJ|VWHULOHQELURUDQGDDúÕQGÕ÷ÕYDUVD\ÕOPDNWDGÕU

0RGHOHJ|UHILUPDODUUHWLPIDNW|UOHULRODQHPHNYHVHUPD\H\HPDUMLQDOUQOHULQHHúLW

ROXQFD\DNDGDUFUHW|GHUOHU(PH÷LQFUHWLQLZVHUPD\HQLQFUHWLRODQUDQWÕLVHULúH

J|VWHULUVHN

˜<˜/ Z= [(1- Į .ĮL1-Į]/L = (1- Į  </

˜<˜. U >Į.ĮL1-Į@. Į <.

 µGHNLHúLWOLNNLúLEDúÕQDoÕNWÕYHVHUPD\HFLQVLQGHQLIDGHHGLOLUVH

(31)

20 Y / L = (KĮL1-Į) / L

y=f(k)=kĮ (2.9) úHNOLQGH LIDGH HGLOLU 1HRNODVLN PRGHOGH VHUPD\H ELULNLP GHQNOHPL \XNDUÕGD GD

J|VWHULOGL÷LJLEL

=sf(K)-į. (2.10) úHNOLQGHGLU LIDGHVL LVH . RODQ VHUPD\H ELULNLPLQLQ ]DPDQD J|UH WUHYLQL

J|VWHUPHNWHGLU %X HúLWOLN VHUPD\H VWRNXQGDNL GH÷LúLPLQ EUW \DWÕUÕPODU (sf(K)) ile DPRUWLVPDQODUDUDVÕQGDNLIDUNDHúLWROGX÷XQXJ|VWHUPHNWHGLU

1HRNODVLN PRGHOGH LúJFQQ E\PH KÕ]Õ QIXVXQ DUWÕú KÕ]ÕQD HúLW ROGX÷X

YDUVD\ÕOPÕúWÕU øúJF n JLEL VDELW ELU RUDQGD E\PHNWHGLU %HOOL ELU W ]DPDQÕQGD

LúJFQQPLNWDUÕL(t) = L0ent LOHJ|VWHULOLU<DQLLONEDúWDLúJFPLNWDUÕ/0 gibi bir PLNWDUNHQW]DPDQVRQXQGDVDELWELURUDQGD/ W PLNWDUÕQDXODúPÕúWÕU

1HRNODVLNPRGHOHLúJFQGDKLOHGLQFHLúJFEDúÕQDGúHQVHUPD\HELULNLPGHQNOHPL

úXúHNOLDOPDNWDGÕU

k sf k k (2.11) 1HRNODVLNE\PHPRGHOLQHWHNQRORML\LGHGDKLOHWWL÷LPL]GHúXúHNOLDOPDNWDGÕU

, 1

Y F K AL K AL (2.12) 1HRNODVLN E\PH PRGHOLQH J|UH $ LOH J|VWHULOHQ WHNQRORML VDELW ELU J RUDQÕQGD

E\PHNWHGLU%Xg RUDQÕGÕúVDORODUDNEHOLUOHQPLúWLU<DQLA(t) = A0egt ile bu durumu J|VWHUHELOLUL] %DúODQJÕo ]DPDQÕQGDNL $0 WHNQRORML G]H\L g gibi sabit bir oranda E\\HUHN W ]DPDQÕ VRQXQGD A(t) G]H\LQH XODúPÕúWÕU AL LIDGHVL LVH HWNLQ LúJFQ

ifade etmektedir.

 ¶GHNLHúLWOL÷L\HQLELUúHNLOGH\D]DUVDN

Y=F(K,AL)=AL.F(K/AL,1)=AL.F(k,1)=AL.f(k) (2.13) Buradan $/¶\LoHNHUVHNY/AL = y diyebiliriz. k HWNLQLúJFEDúÕQDVHUPD\HPLNWDUÕQÕ

ifade ederken y LVHHWNLQLúJFEDúÕQDoÕNWÕ\ÕJ|VWHUPHNWHGLU

(32)

21

Neoklasik modelde teknolojinin GHGDKLOHGLOGL÷LLúJFEDúÕQDVHUPD\HVWRku denklemi úXúHNLOGHGLU

=s.f(k)±(n+gį  (2.14)  ¶WHNL HúLWOLN 1HRNODVLN E\PH PRGHOLQLQ WHPHO HúLWOL÷LGLU 0RGHOH J|UH HWNLQ

LúJFEDúÕQDGúHQVHUPD\HQLQPRGHOGHGÕúVDORODUDNEHOLUOHQHQWDVDUUXIRUDQÕQIXV

DUWÕú KÕ]Õ DPRUWLVPDQ RUDQÕ YH WHNQRORMLN JHOLúPH RUDQÕQD ED÷OÕ ROGX÷X RUWD\D

oÕNPDNWDGÕU%XSDUDPHWUHOHUHED÷OÕRODUDNHNRQRPLQLQGXUD÷DQGXUXPGHQJHVLQHQDVÕO

XODúDFD÷ÕEHOLUOHQPHNWHGLU.

ùHNLO׷ 1HRNODVLN0RGHOGH'HQJHOL%\PH<olu

ùHNLO¶GH1HRNODVLNPRGHOGHGHQJHOLE\PH\ROXJ|VWHULOPLúWLU LOHJ|VWHULOHQ

H÷UL1HRNODVLNPRGHOGHHWNLQLúJFEDúÕQDoÕNWÕ\ÕJ|VWHUPHNWHGLU LOHJ|VWHULOHQ

RQXQ DOWÕQGDNL H÷UL LVH HWNLQ LúJF EDúÕQD UHWLOHQ oÕNWÕQÕQ WDVDUUXI HGLOHQ NÕVPÕQÕ

J|VWHUPHNWHGLU.LúLEDúÕQDWDVDUUXIG]H\LQLQWRSODPDPRUWLVPDQODUÕJ|VWHUHQ QJ

į NH÷ULVLLOHNHVLúWL÷LQRNWDGDDUWÕNVHUPD\HELULNLPLROPDNWDGÕU<DQL QJį N

VI N HúLWOL÷LQLQVD÷ODQGÕ÷ÕQRNWDGD

=(n+Jį N- sf(k) = 0 (2.15) ROPDNWDGÕU VI N  !  Q  J  į N ROGX÷X VUHFH VHUPD\H ELULNLPL GHYDP HWPHNWHGLU

sf(k) < QJį NROGX÷XQGDLVHVHUPD\HELULNLPLD]DODFD÷ÕLoLQEXQRNWDGDQVRQUD

(33)

22

\DWÕUÕP \DSPDN NDUOÕ ROPD\DFDNWÕU 'ROD\ÕVÕ\OD GXUD÷DQ GXUXP GHQJHVL   HúLWOL÷LQLQJHUoHNOHúWL÷LQRNWDROPDNWDGÕU

0RGHOLQYDUVD\ÕPODUÕQDJ|UHX]XQG|QHPGXUD÷DQGXUXPGHQJHVLROXúWX÷XQGDVHUPD\H

ELULNLPLYH\DWÕUÕPODUÕQROPDVÕQGDQGROD\ÕE\PHGXUPDNWDGÕU

1HRNODVLNPRGHOHJ|UHONHOHUD\QÕWHNQRORMLG]H\LQHD\QÕ\DWÕUÕPG]H\OHULQHD\QÕ

QIXV DUWÕú KÕ]ÕQD VDKLSOHUVH ELU ONH GL÷HULQGHQ GDKD IDNLUVH ELOH ]HQJLQ ONH\H J|UH

GDKD KÕ]OÕ E\\HFHN YH QLKD\HWLQGH ]HQJLQ ONHQLQ NLúL EDúÕQD PLOOL JHOLU G]H\LQL

\DNDOD\DFDNWÕU%XQXIRUPOYHJUDILN\ROX\ODDúD÷ÕGDNLJLELJ|VWHUHELOLUL]

(úLWOLN  ¶WHNLLIDGHQLQKHULNLWDUDIÕQÕN¶\DE|OHUVHN

/k=sk (y/k)±(n+g+į (2.16) HúLWOL÷LQH XODúÕUÕ] %X HúLWOLNWHNL LIDGH\L ùHNLO-2.2¶GH GDKD GHWD\OÕ LQFHOH\HELOLUL]

(Jones,1998).

ùHNLO1HRNODVLN0RGHOGH<DNÕQVDPD

ùHNLO ¶GH 1HRNODVLN PRGHOGH \DNÕQVDPD J|VWHULOPLúWLU H÷ULVL 1HRNODVLN

PRGHOGHNLúLEDúÕQDDUWDQVHUPD\HPLNWDUÕQÕ LVHWRSODPDPRUWLVPDQODUÕ

J|VWHUPHNWHGLUkbg, NLúLEDúÕQDWDVDUUXIYHPLOOLJHOLUG]H\LEDúODQJÕoWDJHULRODQONH\L

kbi LVH NLúL EDúÕQD PLOOL JHOLU YH WDVDUUXI G]H\L EDúODQJÕoWD LOHUL RODQ ONH\L WHPVLO

etmektedLU%DúODQJÕoWDJHULRODQONHLOHULRODQONHLOHD\QÕWHNQRORMLG]H\LQHD\QÕ

\DWÕUÕPRUDQODUÕQDYHD\QÕQIXVDUWÕúKÕ]ODUÕQDVDKLSVHLOHULRODQONH\HJ|UHGDKDKÕ]OÕ

ELUE\PHJHUoHNOHúWLUHFHNKHULNLONHDUDVÕQGDNLEDúODQJÕoWDNLHWNLQLúJFEDúÕQD

(34)

23

oÕNWÕDoÕ÷ÕJLWWLNoHGDUDODFDNWÕU'ROD\ÕVÕ\OD1HRNODVLNPRGHOLQHQ|QHPOL|QJ|UVQ

úXúHNLOGHEHOLUWHELOLUL]$\QÕGXUD÷DQGXUXPDVDKLSRODQONHOHUDUDVÕQGD\DNÕQVDPD

KLSRWH]LJHUoHNOHúHFHNWLU<DQL\RNVXOONHOHU]HQJLQONHOHUHJ|UHGDKDKÕ]OÕE\\HUHN

NLúLEDúÕQDPLOOLJHOLUOHUL]HQJLQONHQLQNLQH\DNÕQVD\DFDNWÕU( Jones, 1998).

1HRNODVLN PRGHOLQ LNLQFL ELU |QHPOL |QHUPHVL LVH ELU ONH QH NDGDU GXUD÷DQ Gurum GHQJHVLQGHQ X]DNVD R NDGDU KÕ]OÕ E\\HFHNWLU (÷HU GXUD÷DQ GXUXP GHQJHVLQH

\DNODúÕUVDE\PHKÕ]Õ\DYDúOD\DFDNWÕU -RQHV 

)DNLU ONHOHULQ ]HQJLQ ONHOHUGHQ GDKD KÕ]OÕ E\\HFH÷LQL LIDGH HGHQ EX \DNODúÕP

µPXWODN \DNDODPD¶ KLSRWH]L RODUDN DGODQGÕUÕOPDNWDGÕU $QFDN %DUUR YH 6DOD-i Martin  ¶LQ EHOLUWWL÷L JLEL EX GXUXP JHUoHN GQ\DGDNL DPSLULN EXOJXODUOD ELUHELU

|UWúPHPHNWHGLU <DSÕODQ oDOÕúPDODU EX GXUXPXQ GDKD oRN KRPRMHQ HNRQRPLOHU LoLQ

JHoHUOL ROGX÷XQX KHWHURMHQ HNRQRPLOHU DUDVÕQGD \DNÕQVDPDQÕQ JHUoHNOHúPHGL÷LQL

J|VWHUPHNWHGLU 'ROD\ÕVÕ\OD ELUELULQH EHQ]HU HNRQRPLOHU DUDVÕQGD HWNLQ LúJF EDúÕQD

oÕNWÕPLNWDUÕQÕQ\DNÕQVD\DFD÷ÕQÕLIDGHHGHQKLSRWH]µNRúXOOX\DNÕQVDPD¶ hipotezi olarak DGODQGÕUÕOPDNWDGÕU%XGXUXPXúHNLO\DUGÕPÕ\ODDoÕNOD\DELOLUL] 'R÷UXO 

ùHNLO.RúXOOX<DNÕQVDPD

ùHNLO  ¶WH NRúXOOX \DNÕQVDPD J|VWHULOPLúWLU )DNLU ONHQLQ HWNLQ LúJF EDúÕQD

VHUPD\HYHWDVDUUXIRUDQÕGDKDGúNROGX÷XYDUVD\ÕOGÕ÷ÕQGDGXUD÷DQGXUXPNLúLEDúÕQD

VHUPD\H G]H\OHUL IDUNOÕ ROPDVÕ EHNOHQLU 'ROD\ÕVÕ\OD LNL ONHQLQ GXUD÷DQ GXUXP NLúL

(35)

24

EDúÕQD oÕNWÕ G]H\OHUL GH IDUNOÕ RODFDNWÕU (÷HU KHU LNL ONHQLQ WDVDUUXI RUDQODUÕ D\QÕ

ROVD\GÕIDNLUONHQLQGDKDKÕ]OÕE\\HUHN]HQJLQONH\L\DNDODPDVÕEHNOHQLUGL)DNDW

WDVDUUXIRUDQODUÕIDUNOÕROGX÷XLoLQEXGXUXPPPNQJ|]NPHPHNWHGLU

1HRNODVLNE\PHPRGHOLQLQHOHúWLULVLQHJHOLQFH

9 (NRQRPLQLQ \HQL ELU GXUD÷DQ GXUXP GHQJHVLQH XODúDELOPHVL LoLQ WHNQRORML

G]H\LQLQ DUWPDVÕ JHUHNPHNWHGLU 0RGHOGH WHNQRORML GÕúVDO RODUDN EHOLUOHQGL÷L

LoLQDVOÕQGDPRGHOE\PHQLQWHPHOND\QD÷ÕYDUVD\GÕ÷ÕWHNQRORML\LDoÕNODPDPÕú

ve bir DQODPGDE\PH\L DoÕNODPDPÕúWÕUGL\HELOLUL]

9 0RGHO XOXVODUDUDVÕ JHOLU IDUNOÕOÕNODUÕQÕ DoÕNODPDNWD \HWHUVL] NDOPÕúWÕU )DNLU

ONHOHU GúN WDVDUUXI \NVHN QIXV DUWÕúÕ YH \HWHUVL] WHNQRORML\e sahiptirler, GROD\ÕVÕ\OD]HQJLQONHOHUL\DNDOD\DPDGÕNODUÕDPSLULNEXOJXODUODGHVWHNOHQPLúWLU 'R÷UXO

2.1.2. Mankiw-Romer-:HLO0RGHOL %HúHUL6HUPD\H'DKLO(GLOPLú6RORZ0RGHOL Mankiw-5RPHUYH:HLO 05: \ÕOÕQGD\D]GÕNODUÕPDNDOHOHULQGH6RORZPRGHOLQH

EHúHUL VHUPD\H GH÷LúNHQLQL GDKLO HWPLúOHUGLU dQN DWÕIWD EXOXQGXNODUÕ .HQGULFN¶LQ

1976 tarihli oDOÕúPDVÕQD J|UH  \ÕOÕ LoLQ $%'¶QLQ VHUPD\H VWRkXQXQ \DUÕVÕQGDQ

ID]ODVÕ EHúHUL VHUPD\HGLU 'ROD\ÕVÕ\OD EHúHUL VHUPD\H\L PRGHOH GDKLO HWPHPHN \DQOÕú

VRQXoODUDJ|WUHFHNELUHWNLGR÷XUDFDNWÕU

Yine Mankiw-5RPHU YH :HLO /XFDV¶ÕQ   úX YDUVD\ÕPÕQÕ DNWDUPÕúODUGÕU %HúHUL

VHUPD\H VDELW NDEXO HGLOGL÷LQGH fiziksel sermayenin getirisi azalan verimlere tabi ROPDVÕQDUD÷PHQEWQ\HQLGHQUHWLOHELOHQ fiziksel EHúHUL VHUPD\HQLQJHWLULVLVDELW

verimlere tabiGLU%XYDUVD\ÕPÕQJHoHUOLOL÷LQL D\UÕFDWDUWÕúPÕúODUGÕU

Mankiw-5RPHU YH :HLO DQDOL]OHUL VRQXFXQGD EHúHUL VHUPD\H\L KDULo EÕUDNPDQÕQ

fiziksel VHUPD\H \DWÕUÕPÕ N  YH QIXV DUWÕúÕQÕQ Q  NDWVD\ÕODUÕQÕ DQRUPDO GHUHFHGH

VDSWÕUGÕ÷ÕQÕ EHúHUL VHUPD\H GDKLO HGLOGLNWHQ VRQUD LVH EX DQRUPDOOLNOHULQ RUWDGDQ

NDONWÕ÷ÕQÕVDSWDPÕúODUGÕU

Model

Y=K(t)ĮH(t)ȕ[A(t) L(t)]1-Į-ȕ (2.15)

Referanslar

Benzer Belgeler

Aşağıdaki Çizelge 7.4 ’de yine ulaşım için en önemli olan emisyonların şehiriçi (devlet yolları) ve şehirdışı (otoyol ve il yolları) yollardaki 2015 ve 2030

Demekle bir kelimeyi bile ka­ çırmadıklarını anlatmak ister­ lerdi. O devrin meşhur gazete­ cisi Filip efendi gazetenin en sonuna imzasını atardı. Buraya kadar

Diğer taraftan iktisadi büyüme ve buna bağlı olarak ortaya çıkan cari açığın uyarıldığı bir yapı içinde, OAK ekonomilerinin cari büyüme skorlarını devam

Ekonomik Büyümenin Ölçülmesi Büyüme Hızı Ekonominin Büyümesinin Ölçülmesinde Karşılaşılan Sorunlar.. Ekonomik Büyümenin Sınırları

Bu çalışmanın amacı, teknolojik gelişmenin uzun dönemli ekonomik büyüme üzerinde ne denli önemli olduğunu vurgulamak; Teknolojiye gerekli önemi veren ve bu

Baldacci vd.(2008: 27) panel veri analizi yöntemi ile 120 gelişmekte olan ülke üzerinde 1975-2000 dönemi için beşeri sermaye ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki doğrudan ve

Bu listede Bat~~ Anadolu'daki eski beyliklerin topraldann~~ içine alan Mente~e, Saruhan, Ay- d~n, Karesi, Bursa, Biga, Bergama ve Kütahya'n~n adlar~~ zikredilmektedir31.. Liste

Biz de bu amaçla, her biri önemli birer tarihi belge olan minyatürlerde resmedilmiş olan, sultan eğlence sahnelerinin ikonografyası içinde yer alan çalgı