• Sonuç bulunamadı

Evaluating the maastricht convergence criteria for new prospective european union members

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2021

Share "Evaluating the maastricht convergence criteria for new prospective european union members"

Copied!
14
0
0

Yükleniyor.... (view fulltext now)

Tam metin

(1)bc d6e f g(hNi2gjdjk2lc m n c oMp q q rts ujvjujw vjxjvs2yjz { | } ~2s ujv(Nw €j€Nvjvj|N‚ { |jƒ „ } } y ~ ~ †††%‡ } ˆ ‰Š ‡ ‹(NŒ ‡ } z ~ z ƒ  ƒ Ž z ˆ „ ~ z ƒ Œj{ ƒ †~. © 2007 Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. .  (YDOXDWLQJWKH0DDVWULFKW&RQYHUJHQFH&ULWHULDIRU 1HZ3URVSHFWLYH(XURSHDQ8QLRQ0HPEHUV    9HVLOH.XWOX 1HúH.DYUXNNRFD    

(2)  

(3)       

(4)  

(5)      !  " # 

(6) %$

(7) & '  (  ) ' #*+ " *+,.-+ " # 

(8)  /  0+*/  . + *+"  )1 !*2

(9)  ( #*34)" *+"%$

(10) & '  (  )

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

(12) &=>4?@2ABC ?2AB&D+EA2FG?2HA2I D2JK LMN)O(0= I PQRS T U2S QVS A>Q+U2W S X YMTNZ Q+U2S TNA[MP\Q]^_%S ^N` a Q+U K   .

(13) C6ž. 2  " ML*+ " *G

(14) 0 ‘(MLM' 6*2# #2 ’;

(15)  ("2!

(16) #M“ '2  O•”+– —&˜˜&™ šG”›œ —&. ,QWURGXFWLRQ 6LQFH WKH H[LVWHQFH RI (XURSHDQ (FRQRPLF &RPPXQLW\ E\ 7UHDW\ RI 5RPH LQ. WKHHQODUJHPHQWSURFHVVRI(XURSHDQ8QLRQ (8

(17) KDVEHHQDFRQFHUQIRUERWK LQFXPEHQW DQG FDQGLGDWH FRXQWULHV 7KLV SURFHVV FRQVLVWV RI HFRQRPLF SROLWLFV VRFLDO OHJDO DQG FXOWXUDO DVSHFWV (FRQRPLF DVSHFWV LQFOXGH WKH HFRQRPLF DQG PRQHWDU\ XQLRQ ZKLFK LV WR EH DFKLHYHG LQ WKUHHVWDJHV)LUVWO\FRPSOHWLRQRIWKH LQWHUQDO PDUNHW DQG DFFHVVLRQ WR (XURSHDQ 0RQHWDU\ 6\VWHP (06

(18)  RI DOO (8 PHPEHUV VHFRQGO\ WKH IRXQGLQJ QHFHVVDU\ PRQHWDU\ LQVWLWXWLRQV DQG WUDQVIHUHQFH. RIQDWLRQDOPRQHWDU\UHVSRQVLELOLW\IRUUHVHUYHVWKLUGO\WUDQVLWLRQWRWKH(XURSHDQ (FRQRPLFDQG0RQHWDU\8QLRQ (08

(19) . :KHQ FDQGLGDWH FRXQWULHV MRLQ (08 WKH\ IDFH ZLWK ERWK FRVWV DQG EHQHILWV. 7KH\DEDQGRQWKHLURZQPRQHWDU\XQLWLQIDYRURIDFRPPRQXQLWLQWXUQWKH\ORVV. WKH FRQWURO RI WKHLU RZQ PRQH\ VXSSO\ VLQFH (XURSHDQ &HQWUDO %DQN KROGV DOO WKH SRZHULQLWVKDQG7KLVFKDQJHUHODWHGWRPRQHWDU\DXWKRULW\GHSULYHVHDFKPHPEHU. RI UHYHQXHV IURP VHLJQRUDJH DQG WKH H[FKDQJH UDWH DV D WRRO RI PDFURHFRQRPLF. VWDELOL]DWLRQSROLF\ Ÿ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  . ƒ $Q DQQXDO UDWH RI LQIODWLRQ RI QR PRUH WKDQ  DERYH WKH WKUHH EHVW. LQIODWLRQSHUIRUPHUVLQWKH(8. ƒ %XGJHWGHILFLWDVDSHUFHQWDJHRI*'3RIQRPRUHWKDQ ƒ $JRYHUQPHQWGHEWWR*'3UDWLRRIRUOHVV. ƒ $Q DYHUDJH ORQJ WHUP LQWHUHVW UDWH QR PRUH WKDQ  DERYH WKH OHYHOV. REVHUYHGLQWKHWKUHHFRXQWULHVZLWKWKHEHVWLQIODWLRQSHUIRUPDQFH   ¡¢ £ ¤ S Q` a P\¦¥ J§§§¨(K. ©«ª P\¬+P\TNa ` Z ¬a ^Z Q]­.a V ®+SW a ^¥ J§§2D2¨(K. .

(20) 2  " ML*+ " *G

(21) 0 ‘(MLM' 6*2# #2 ’;

(22)  ("2!

(23) #M“ '2  O•”+– —&˜˜&™ šG”›œ —&. C ?. ƒ 1R GHYDOXDWLRQV RU UHYDOXDWLRQV RI H[FKDQJH UDWHV ZLWKLQ WKH WZR \HDUV. SUHFHGLQJDFFHVVLRQ. 7KLV SDSHU DLPV WR DVVHVV WKH PDFURHFRQRPLF FRQGLWLRQ RI WKH IRXU QHZ. SURVSHFWLYH PHPEHUV ZKLFK DUH 7XUNH\ &URDWLD %XOJDULD DQG 5RPDQLD GHSHQGLQJ RQ IRXU 0DDVWULFKW &RQYHUJHQFH &ULWHULD ¯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

(24)  HPSOR\HG V\VWHPEDVHG FRLQWHJUDWLRQ WHFKQLTXHV GHYHORSHG E\ -RKDQVHQ WR GHWHUPLQH ZKLFK (XURSHDQ 8QLRQ FRXQWULHV ZRXOG IRUP D VXFFHVVIXO (08 EDVHG RQ ORQJ WHUP EHKDYLRU RI WKH QRPLQDO FRQYHUJHQFH FULWHULD 7KH UHVXOWV VXJJHVWHG. WKDWQRWDOORIWKHRULJLQDOFRXQWULHVRIWKH(8FRXOGSRVVLEO\IRUPDVXFFHVVIXO. (08RYHUWLPHXQOHVVVHYHUDOFRXQWULHVPDGHVLJQLILFDQWDGMXVWPHQWV. .RXNRXULWDNLVDQG0LFKHOLV 

(25) LQYHVWLJDWHGHPSLULFDOO\WKHSURVSHFWVRIWKH. FRXQWULHVMRLQHGUHFHQWO\EDVHGRQWKHQRPLQDOFRQYHUJHQFHFULWHULDDVZHOODVRQ. UHDOSHUFDSLWD*'3VXVLQJFRQLWHJUDWLRQDQGFRPPRQWUHQGDQDO\VLV7KHHPSLULFDO. UHVXOWV LQGLFDWHG WKDW WKH HQODUJHPHQW FRXQWULHV ZHUH SDUWLDOO\ UHDG\ WR MRLQ WKH. (XUR]RQH DQG QHHGHG IXUWKHU DGMXVWPHQWV LQ WKHLU JRYHUQPHQW SROLFLHV WR EHIXOO\. SUHSDUHGIRUMRLQLQJWKH(08. +DIHU HWDO 

(26) XVHGPXOWLYDULDWHFRLQWHJUDWLRQWHFKQLTXHVWRLQYHVWLJDWHWKH. OLQNDPRQJLQWHUHVWUDWHWHUPVWUXFWXUHVIRUDVHOHFWHGJURXSRI(8FRXQWULHVXVLQJ PRQWKO\GDWDRYHUWKHSHULRG7KH\IRXQGFRPRYHPHQWVLQWKHFRPPRQ WUHQGVLQWKHWHUPRIVWUXFWXUHVRYHUWLPH. %UDGD DQG .XWDQ 

(27)  FRPSDUHG WKH FRQYHUJHQFH ZLWK *HUPDQ PRQHWDU\. SROLF\RIWKH%DONDQDQG0HGLWHUUDQHDQFRXQWU\FDQGLGDWHVIRU(8PHPEHUVKLSZLWK. WKDWRIFRXQWULHVWKDWKDYHUHFHQWO\MRLQHGWKH(87KHLUUHVXOWVVKRZWKDWVLJQLILFDQW. OLQNDJHVH[LVWEHWZHHQ*HUPDQEDVHPRQH\VWRFNDQGWKDWRIUHFHQWPHPEHUVRI(8.  ° _«®+SMW Z ^N`­.Z Z ^N` TNa V ®`&I PQRS T U2S QVSMI4TNa ` S TNa PQ¦a ^S ¤ VW \]2S ] £ T P±²P\T^N` \]³K .

(28) CE. 2  " ML*+ " *G

(29) 0 ‘(MLM' 6*2# #2 ’;

(30)  ("2!

(31) #M“ '2  O•”+– —&˜˜&™ šG”›œ —&. WKHVDPHKROGVWUXHIRUVRPHFDQGLGDWHVVXFKDV6ORYHQLDDQG&URDWLD$PRQJWKH. RWKHU %DONDQ HFRQRPLHV DQG 7XUNH\ WKH DELOLW\ WR IROORZ WKH SROLFLHV RI WKH. %XQGHVEDQNLVQRQH[LVWHQW. .DUIDNLV DQG 0RVFKRV 

(32)  XVHG WKH (QJOH DQG *UDQJHU 

(33)  ELYDULDWH. FRLQWHJUDWLRQIUDPHZRUNWRWHVWIRULQWHUHVWUDWHOLQNDJHVEHWZHHQ*HUPDQ\DQGHDFK. RIWKHFRXQWULHVLQFOXGLQJ%HOJLXP)UDQFH,UHODQG,WDO\DQGWKH1HWKHUODQGV7KH\ IRXQGQRFRLQWHJUDWLRQLQWKHSDLUVRILQWHUHVWUDWHV &RLQWHJUDWLRQ0RGHOVDQG0HWKRG &RLQWHJUDWLRQLVDQHFHVVDU\FRQGLWLRQIRUFRPRYHPHQWRIYDULDEOHVLQWKHORQJ. UXQDQGWKXVIRUDVXFFHVVIXODFFHVVLRQRIQHZSURVSHFWLYHFRXQWULHVLQWRWKH(08´  ,IWKHYDULDEOHVIRUWKHFDQGLGDWHFRXQWULHVDUHIRXQGWREHFRLQWHJUDWHGZLWKWKRVHRI. *HUPDQ\ LW FDQ EH LQIHUUHG WKDW WKHUH H[LVWV ORQJ UXQ UHODWLRQVKLS DPRQJ UHODWHG. YDULDEOHV. :HXVHFRLQWHJUDWLRQDSSURDFKWRDQDO\]HFRLQWHJUDWLQJUHODWLRQVDPRQJLQIODWLRQ. UDWHV (TXDWLRQ

(34) LQWHUHVWUDWH (TXDWLRQ

(35) GHILFLWWR*'3 (TXDWLRQ

(36) DQGGHEW. WR*'3UDWLRV (TXDWLRQ

(37) RIIRXUFDQGLGDWHVLQUHODWLRQWR*HUPDQ\. ln ,1)µ = β 0 + β 1 ln 5,1)µ + ε µ .  

(38) .  ln ,5¶ = β 0 + β 1 ln 5,5¶ + ε ¶ .  

(39) . '()· = β 0 + β1 5'()· + ε · .  

(40) .  ln 7'¸ = β 0 + β 1 ln 57' ¸ + ε ¸ .  

(41) . ZKHUH,1) ¹ LVWKHLQIODWLRQRIFDQGLGDWHFRXQWU\5,1) ¹ LVWKDWRIUHIHUHQFHFRXQWU\ ,5 ¹ LVWKHLQWHUHVWUDWHRIFDQGLGDWHFRXQWU\5,5 ¹ LVWKDWRIUHIHUHQFHFRXQWU\'() ¹ LV GHILFLWWR*'3UDWLRRIFDQGLGDWHFRXQWU\5'() ¹ LVWKDWRIUHIHUHQFHFRXQWU\7' ¹ LV WRWDO GHEW VWRFN RI FDQGLGDWH FRXQWU\ DQG VLPLODUO\ 57' ¹  LV WKDW RI UHIHUHQFH FRXQWU\. (QJOH*UDQJHU DQG %RXQGV WHVW DUH XVHG LQ RUGHU WR HVWLPDWH WKH H[LVWHQFH RI. FRLQWHJUDWLRQ  .   º«» ¼½¾+¼½¿NÀ Á  ¾À àÄÅÆ.À Ç È+ÉÊ À ÃË ÌÍÍ2Î2Ï(Ð .

(42) ñò. Ñ2Ò ÓÔ Õ ÒMÖ×+Ø Õ ×GÙÚÛÜÒ Ý(ÒMÖMÙÞ ß6×2à àá2âÙ ãäÒ ÚØ ß(ÙÕ2åÙÚàMæÒ Þ2Ô Ò ç•è+é ê&ëë&ì íGèîï ê&ð (QJOH*UDQJHU¶VUHVLGXDOEDVHG$')WHVW 7KHWZRVWHSVRIWKLVWHVWDUHFRQGXFWHGDVIROORZVó . (VWLPDWLQJ WKH SDUDPHWHUV RI D FRLQWHJUDWLQJ UHJUHVVLRQ E\ DSSO\LQJ 2/6 RQ. WKHQRQVWDWLRQDU\IRUPRIWKHYDULDEOHV. ln \ ô = α 0 + α 1 ln [ ô + ε ô . . . 

(43) . 7HVWLQJIRUVWDWLRQDULW\RIWKHUHVLGXDOVE\XVLQJ$')WHVW 2QFHWKHYDULDEOHVLQFOXGHGLQWKHPRGHODUHIRXQGFRLQWHJUDWHGRXUQH[WVWHSLV. WR VSHFLI\ DQG HVWLPDWH DQ HUURU FRUUHFWLRQ PRGHO (&0

(44)  LQFOXGLQJ WKH HUURU FRUUHFWLRQ WHUP WR LQYHVWLJDWH WKH G\QDPLF EHKDYLRU RI WKH PRGHO 7KH FRUUHVSRQGHQFHEHWZHHQFRLQWHJUDWLRQDQGHUURUFRUUHFWLRQPRGHOLVIRUPDOL]HGLQ. WKH*UDQJHU5HSUHVHQWDWLRQ7KHRUHP 

(45) 7KHVL]HRIWKHHUURUFRUUHFWLRQWHUP. LQGLFDWHV WKH VSHHG RI DGMXVWPHQW RI DQ\ GLVHTXLOLEULXP WRZDUGV D ORQJUXQ. HTXLOLEULXPVWDWH. ∆\ õ = β 0 +. ö. ö ø ø õ β ∆ \ + β ÷ ∆[ õ −÷ + β 3 (& õ −1 + ε õ  ∑ ∑ − ø =1 1 ÷ =0 2.  

(46) . %RXQGV7HVWLQJ$SSURDFKWR&RLQWHJUDWLRQ 7KH %RXQGV WHVW SURFHGXUH 3HVDUDQ HW DO 

(47)  LV D UHFHQW WHVW EDVHG RQ WKH. HVWLPDWLRQRIDQXQUHVWULFWHGHUURUFRUUHFWLRQPRGHO 8(&0

(48) XVLQJ2UGLQDU\/HDVW 6TXDUHV 2/6

(49) HVWLPDWRU. ú. ú. ∆\ ù = β 0 + β1 \ ù −1 + β 2 [ ù −1 + ∑ β 3ü ∆\ ù − ü + ∑ β 4 û ∆[ ù − û + ε ù . ü =1. û.  

(50) . =0. 7KLVDSSURDFKKDVWZRPDLQDGYDQWDJHV)LUVWO\LWFDQEHDSSOLHGLUUHVSHFWLYHRI. ZKHWKHUWKHUHJUHVVRUVDUH, 

(51) , 

(52) RUHYHQLQWHJUDWHGRIWKHVDPHRUGHU6HFRQGO\ %RXQGVWHVWSURFHGXUHLVUREXVWIRUFRLQWHJUDWLRQDQDO\VLVZLWKVPDOOVDPSOHVWXG\. 7KLVDSSURDFKUHTXLUHVWKDWRYHUDOOVLJQLILFDQFHRIWKHPRGHOVKRXOGEHWHVWHGE\. XVLQJ:DOG&RHIILFLHQW7HVW7KH)VWDWLVWLFREWDLQHGIURPWKH8(&0LVFRPSDUHG. ZLWKWKHFULWLFDOYDOXHERXQGVWKDWVWDWHGLQ3HVDUDQHWDO,IWKHFRPSXWHG). VWDWLVWLF LV JUHDWHU WKDQ WKH , 

(53)  FULWLFDO YDOXH ERXQGV LW PHDQV WKH H[LVQFH RI. FRLQWHJUDWLRQ,IWKHFRPSXWHG)VWDWLVWLFLVOHVVWKDQWKH, 

(54) FULWLFDOYDOXHERXQGVLW   ýþÿ  ÿ

(55)  ÿ   .

(56) .  

(57) !"# " $&%&')(*

(58) !

(59) $&+,"--./$1023%# ,$45$&%&-

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

(61) 'DWDEDVH2WKHUVRXUFHVQHHGHGWRFRPSOHWHWKHGDWDVHW. LQFOXGH &HQWUDO %DQN RI 7XUNH\ &URDWLDQ 1DWLRQDO %DQN DQG 'HXWVFKH. %XQGHVEDQN7KHVDPSOHFRQVLVWVRIPRQWKO\RUTXDUWHUO\GDWDRIYDU\LQJWLPHVSDQV. GHWHUPLQHGE\GDWDDYDLODELOLW\7DEOHUHSRUWVWKHVDPSOHSHULRGIRUHDFKFRXQWU\ D

(62) E&FG H)I J1K&L=MN OP HQ P MRN S HT=E&UWVG HE M=X D P UWHZY3H OP K&X Q J1K&L=MN OP HQ. []\. []^)_. `)aZ_. ced fg. &hi j kl&lmei m. &hi j kl&lmei m. &l=i j kl&lni k. &l=i j kl&lni k. o p&q r . &kei j kl&lni s. &kei j kl&lni s. &ni kj kl&lni k. t u. vZd  & r . &kei j kl&lni . &hi j kl&lni s. &mei j kl&lni s. t u. &mei j kl&lni s. &kei j kl&lni k. &y=i mj kl&lei m. t u. &hi j kl&lni s. &hi j kl&lni m. &l=i j kl&lni s. &l=i j kl&lni k. w pxW ÿr   xW ÿ&g.     z|{|}  ÿ~&€r ÿR ÿ&xWr q €R kl&le  . Db`.

(63)  

(64) !"# " $&%&')(*

(65) !

(66) $&+,"--./$1023%# ,$45$&%&-

(67) 65+ 798: ;=<&<=> ? 8@&A ;=B. . (PSLULFDO5HVXOWV 8QLWURRWWHVWV$XJPHQWHG'LFNH\)XOOHU $')

(68) IRUVWDWLRQDULW\DUHDSSOLHGRQ. ERWKOHYHOVDQGILUVWGLIIHUHQFHVRIDOOYDULDEOHVIRUHDFKFRXQWU\DWWKHHLWKHURU. OHYHORIVLJQLILFDQFH7KHUHVXOWVDUHSUHVHQWHGLQ7DEOHWR7DEOH,QRUGHU to select the appropriate lag length, we used the Akaike’s Information Criteria. The. UHVXOWVVKRZWKDWWKHVHULHVDUHHLWKHU, 

(69) RU, 

(70) 2QWKHEDVLVRIWKHXQLWURRWWHVWV ZH DSSO\ (QJOH*UDQJHU 

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

(72)  LV VWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW DW WKH  OHYHO DQG ZLWK WKH DSSURSULDWH QHJDWLYH

(73)  VLJQV IRU %XOJDULD ,W PHDQV WKDW WKH ORQJUXQ HTXLOLEULXP. UHODWLRQVKLSDPRQJWKHYDULDEOHVLVYDOLGLQ2/6UHJUHVVLRQRI%XOJDULD. 2QWKHRWKHUKDQGLQRXUVWXG\VRPHRIWKHGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOHVZHUHIRXQGDV. , 

(74)  ZKLOH LQGHSHQGHQW YDULDEOHV ZHUH , 

(75)  6LQFH WKH (QJOH *UDQJHU 7HVWUHTXLUHV. DOO YDULDEOHV WR EH LQ WKH VDPH RUGHU ZH FRXOG QRW DSSO\ IRU (QJOH*UDQJHU. DSSURDFK IRU WKHVH VHULHV ,QVWHDG ZH XVHG %RXQGV 7HVW LQ RUGHU WR FKHFN WKH H[LVWHQFH RI ORQJ UXQ UHODWLRQVKLS$VWKHILUVWVWHSRI%RXQGVWHVWLVEDVHGRQWKH. HVWLPDWLRQRI8QUHVWULFWHG(UURU&RUUHFWLRQ0RGHO 8(&0

(76) ZLWK2/6 7XUNH\. (QJOH*UDQJHU DSSURDFK ZDV XVHG WR WHVW WKH FRLQWHJUDWLRQ RI LQWHUHVW UDWHV. LQIODWLRQDQGGHEWWR*'3UDWLRIRU7XUNH\2QWKHRWKHUKDQGZHDSSOLHG%RXQGV. WHVWLQJWRWHVWWKHH[LVWHQFHRIFRLQWHJUDWLRQEHWZHHQGHILFLWWR*'3UDWLRRI7XUNH\. DQGWKDWRI*HUPDQ\   .

(77) kl.  

(78) !"# " $&%&')(*

(79) !

(80) $&+,"--./$1023%# ,$45$&%&-

(81) 65+ 798: ;=<&<=> ? 8@&A ;=B. D

(82) E&FG H

(83) ‚ J1KP MN Hƒ O E N P K&M D

(84) HQ N \ HQ L G N Q5„ K&O D L=O H† ‡ˆ&‰=Š ‹Œ]ZŽˆ&‰|‹Ž

(85) 3‘’ ˆ=“ ‹‰=Ž“ ’ ‘ˆ•”|‹–“&—1‹–˜=Š “ – u™1š c } qe&q q n› o r q r œ&  d }  ÿ)ž (

(86) Ÿb  j¡ k j s= my j¡ & j s= my ¢1£Ÿb   ÿ=¤ ¢¥  j l s&s j s= my ¦‘˜=ˆ|§–1”|‹–“&—1‹–˜=Š “ – š|j } q q ± ln. k| m=. ­ ® ( ln° ¯ ¬ ln¯Z° ¯ ¬ ). n›. ÿ &} o r q r œ&  d  v p d . ¨  l m| m. ¨   n s. 7KH UHVXOWV EDVHG RQ (QJOH*UDQJHU DQG %RXQGV WHVWLQJ DSSURDFK LQGLFDWH WKDW. WKHUHH[LVWVQRFRLQWHJUDWLRQEHWZHHQDOOYDULDEOHVRI7XUNH\DQGWKRVHRI*HUPDQ\. 7KHUHIRUH LW FDQ EH LQIHUUHG WKDW 7XUNH\ KDV DFKLHYHG QRQH RI WKH 0DDVWULFKW. &RQYHUJHQFH&ULWHULDRYHUWKHODVWGHFDGH &URDWLD. %RXQGV WHVWLQJ DSSURDFK ZDV XVHG WR WHVW WKH FRLQWHJUDWLRQ RI LQWHUHVW UDWHV. LQIODWLRQDQGGHILFLWWR*'3UDWLRIRU&URDWLD'HEWWR*'3UDWLRFRXOGQRWEHWHVWHG. GXHWRXQDYDLODELOLW\RIGDWD. D

(87) E&FG H

(88) © J1KP MN Hƒ O E N P K&M D

(89) HQ N \ HQ L G N Q5„ K&OJ1OK E N P E ¦‘˜=ˆ|§–1”|‹–“&—1‹–˜=Š “ –.  · . ³ ´ ( ln ¶µ ² ln µ ¶µ ² ) ¿ ln ¹ º» ( ln ½ ¾ ¿ ¸ ln ¼Z½ ¾ ¿ ¸ ) Ç Á  à ( Å5Æ=Ç À Ä=Å3ÆÇ À ) ln. . . ÿ &} o r q r œ&  d  v p d . š|j } q q. n›. = m. m| . n &y. s= n¡k. m| . n &. &¡ . m| &. n . $FFRUGLQJ WR HPSLULFDO UHVXOWV DERYH LW FDQ EH VDLG WKDW WKHUH H[LVWV QR. FRLQWHJUDWLRQ LQ WHUPV RI LQIODWLRQ 7KH UHVXOWV DOVR DSSURYH WKH H[LVWHQFH RI. FRLQWHJUDWLRQEHWZHHQGHILFLWWR*'3UDWLRDQGLQWHUHVWUDWHRI&URDWLDDQGWKRVHRI *HUPDQ\7KHORQJUXQHTXDWLRQVFDQEHVKRZQDVIROORZV. ln ,5 ª = 0 .10 + 2 .51 ln 5,5 ª + H ª.  ( 0.22 ) ( 7 .27 )  '() « = − 0.01 + 0.37 5'() « + H «.  

(90) . W. W. . ( −2.09 ) (0.91). .  

(91) .

(92)    

(93)      !"#

(94) #$% &% ')( * +-,,-. /(01 +-2. 3!4. %XOJDULD 7RWHVWWKHFRLQWHJUDWLQJUHODWLRQEHWZHHQ%XOJDULDDQG*HUPDQ\IRULQWHUHVWUDWH. LQIODWLRQ DQG GHILFLWWR*'3 UDWLR ZH XVHG (QJOH*UDQJHU DSSURDFK 'HILFLWWR. *'3 UDWLR FRXOG QRW EH WHVWHG EHFDXVH RI WKH XQDYDLODELOLW\ RI WKH GDWD DV LQ WKH. RWKHU%DONDQFRXQWULHV. 5 67#8 9 : ;<= >#? 9@ A6 ? = <> 5 9B ?DC 9BE#8 ? B%F < A G E#8 @ 6A = 6 H IJ-K LMONQPRIJDLP S"TU I-V LJ-PRV U TIXWDLZYV[LZY\-K V Y ] ^_a`cbdfehge iZe. jkmlonfp e p qirsir t b. r uv &ow. x 3Dy z3. x { y |#z. r uv  }ow. x 4~y | {. x { y |#z. €!}ow. x j y 3|. x { y |#z. $FFRUGLQJWRWKHHPSLULFDOUHVXOWVIRU%XOJDULDLWFDQEHVDLGWKDWGHILFLWWR*'3. UDWLR VKRZV D FRLQWHJUDWLQJ UHODWLRQ ZKLOH WKH RWKHU FULWHULD GR QRW 7KH ORQJUXQ HTXDWLRQIRUGHILFLWWR*'3UDWLRFDQEHVKRZQDVIROORZV. '()  = 0.003 + 0.86 5'()  + H  W. (0.23) (0.91). .  

(95) . 7KH HVWLPDWHG FRHIILFLHQW RI RQH ODJJHG HUURU FRUUHFWLRQ WHUP VWDWHV WKDW WKH. V\VWHP QHHGV PRUH WKDQ WZR TXDUWHUV LQ RUGHU WR FRPH EDFN LWV RULJLQDO ORQJUXQ HTXLOLEULXPSDWK‚  5RPDQLD :H XVHG (QJOH*UDQJHU DSSURDFK WR WHVW FRLQWHJUDWLRQ IRU LQWHUHVW UDWH DQG. LQIODWLRQ +RZHYHU ZH DSSOLHG %RXQGV WHVW WR FKHFN ZKHWKHU GHILFLWWR*'3 UDWLR VKRZV D FRLQWHJUDWLRQ RU QRW 'DWD IRU GHEWWR*'3 UDWLR DUH QRW DYDLODEOH IRU WKH SHULRGDQDO\]HGVRZHFRXOGQRWWHVWWKLVFULWHULRQIRU5RPDQLD      ƒD„ dfe p aiZe p †u‡†ˆ „ lo‰Šn bdft r e d"iZn bQn bZ‹ †n e bŒp u‡`! iZŽ r b‡44~y .

(96) è&è. ÈÉÊË Ì É

(97) ÍÎÏ Ì Î Ð&Ñ&Ò)ÓÉÔÉ

(98) Í

(99) Ð&ÕÖÎ××ØÙÐ1ÚÛ3ÉÑÏ ÖÐÌÜ5Ð&Ñ&×

(100) Ý5ÉÕË ÉÞ9ßà á=â&â=ã ä ßå&æ á=ç. ê

(101) ë&ìí î S ð1ñò óô îõöë ô ò ñ&ó ê

(102) î÷ ô|ø î÷ùí ô ÷5ú ñ ö ø ñT ë óò ë üý&þ=ÿ ý&þ 

(103)  ý þ 

(104) ý =ÿ   !#"%$'&$ ($. )+*-,/.%0 $ 0 1#(234(2 56. 2 7U8 Ó @/9. è ; V+> :. : = ; >?<. 2 7U8 / Ý 9. é ) :W ;#. : = ; >?< X

(105) =ý Y+ =ÿ  .  : "%$ ($. )a%b c ( '() `. 5'() ` ). è ; <è. )+*-,/.%0 $ 0 1#(234(2 56#"ZL J+.'[ J+57?P"Z!#"%$ \'] W+^. \'] é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

(106) ÈÉÊË Ì É

(107) ÍÎÏ Ì Î Ð&Ñ&Ò)ÓÉÔÉ

(108) Í

(109) Ð&ÕÖÎ××ØÙÐ1ÚÛ3ÉÑÏ ÖÐÌÜ5Ð&Ñ&×

(110) Ý5ÉÕË ÉÞ9ßà á=â&â=ã ä ßå&æ á=ç. è =. 5HIHUHQFHV. L d7$ 0 J+5?efD; ,; e ] è  h 7?1#e$ i6Mj(#(#"%$ .%0 1i$',/.%0 $ .%0 (#e?(7?PK'i6#0 .D[ 76L 0 $ "%k Ï & W WW+^ e6,J+7g.  l ÉÜ5ÖØÞZÑ4m&ØÎÖÑ&ÐÌ=Ø n 3 J2 5Iq3 \ \ e \ "r"%56éA; o¥ØÖÌ Òpn n¡Ð=Ë ÖÊ e+U [.%(#P(#ets#; ,u(7?Pwv5$ ( 7?eQ; Mx; e ] è WW é ^ et'i6y,J+7g. h7?1yJLzM{J+76$ ( . |wf J2 0 1|w[ $ }7~, (7?P0 P($ ,J+57$ .%0 #" (7?PU$ i6 H 5. J+O6#(7Q7?0 J+7?e C3Ù¡ØÑØ+€¥Ë Ù ‚ÊÏ É#€1Ê è)e+OO ;èé#) : è = éA; [.%(#P(#eQ,; s#;4(7?Pƒv5$ (7?e4Q; Mx; e ] è WW è ^ eU[(2 „?(7 (7?P†M{#P0 $ . .%(76#(7‡, (7?P0 P($ #"ˆL J+. H 5. J+O6#(7y7?0 J+7 M{IKR6.%"%i?0 O'‰?'i6Q,J+7g. h7?1QJL/'i6#0 ./M{J+76$ (. |f J2 0 1|}U0 $ iŠ'i?($ZJL $ i6 H  5 . J+O6#(7Š,7$ .%(2'[(7„?e o Ë Ì Ì Ë Ð€x)  B Ð&ÕË Ò&ÊØÑ¥ o ØÖ×Ë Ñ‹Q5 Œ Ðr5  ÉÖ e#Ž45IKR6.'>)<?; 5$ $ (#e K; (7?PiIq#Pe/Ž; e ] é___ ^ e 7hh+. h($ \ IKO6J+. $4UI(7?P?57?1$ 0 J+7†L J+.q[(76h2 (#P#"%i'‰/‘,J : \ 7$ h+.%($ 0 J+7QOO. J(#1i?e pbÌ Ë ÉÒ4C3Ù¡ØÑØ+€¥Ë ÙÊ e = ée+>?<6) : >?Vè ; H 76h2 #eZ’U;!!;Z(7?Pz“ .%(76h.%e ,; ”†; se ] é_?•V ^ e ,J : \  7 $ h+.%($ 0 J+7j(7?P ,J+. . #1$ 0 J+7q(7?P4!#"%$ 0 76he C3Ù¡ØÑØ+€1ÉÏ ÖË ÙÐ e6)) ] è ^ eè)|é : è?V<?;. H . . J+.U,J+. . #1$ 0 J+7'‰'’ O. #"7$ ($ 0 J+7?e H . . J+.. – (L .%e’U; ”†; ev5$ (7?eQ; Mx; (7?P—!i6J+5?eU& ; ] é__6V ^ e ˜D0 7„?(h{0 7 H M&†!. I™&$ . 5?1$ 5. #"‰ H g60 P7?1zL . J+I ,J+IKIqJ+7t'. 7?P(7?PK'.%(7?"r0 $ J+. |K,J+IKO6J+767$ "re m&ØÎÖÑ&ÐÌ|Ø n 8 ÑÏ ÉÖÑ&ÐÏ Ë ØÑ&ÐÌ6š ØÑ&É%‚ Ð&Ñ&ÒK@ZË Ñ&Ð&ÑÙÉ e3UJ2 ;eé<e ŽQJ?;#>?e+OO ;)+_?) : < W V?; – (56heZQ; Q; eZMj(#1vU0 776J+7?e “4; s#;Z(7?PˆMj0 1i62 0 "reZ˜ ; e ] é ___ ^ e H 5. J+O6#(7{M{J+76$ (. |ˆ7?0 J+7'‰'~,J+7?0 $ h+.%($ 0 J+7 7?(2 |"r0 ";. http://citeseer.ist.psu.edu/521089.html.. vU(. L („?0 "re4,; s#;(7?PM{J"r1i6J"reK; Mx; e ] é__ + W ^ e \ 7$ . #"%$K’($ {˜D0 7„?(h#"Š”x0 $ i?0 7ƒ$ i6 H 5. J+O6#(7ƒM{J+76$ (. | &|"%$ IŠ‰‡D0 IqQ"#0 . #"7?(2 |"r0 "‰+ŽQJ+$ k & m ØÎÖÑ&ÐÌhØ nQš ØÑ&É%‚ k Û3ÖÉÒ=Ë Ï|Ð&Ñ&ÒWÜ5Ð&Ñ&×Ë Ñ‹ e?3UJ2 ;&è&è?eŽQJ?; = ; e6OO?e = •• : = _> ; vU(#"%I(7?e'Q; e'vU› . R?(#œ : vU(#"%I(7?eZ& ;'(7?PŠ'5. h+5$ 2 5?e H ; ] è WW ) ^ e?ŽQJ+I0 7?(2Z(7?Pt’ #(2D,J+7g. h7?1Q[ $  } 7Š$ i6 , HDH ,J+57$ .%0 #"t(7?P{$ i6 H q‰D?.%(#1$ 0 J+7?(2 ,J0 7$ h+.%($ 0 J+7j7?(2 |"r0 "re pbÌ Ë ÉÒ{C3Ù¡ØÑØ+€¥Ë ÙÊ e =  V e3è>•V : è) WW ; vJ+5„6J+5.%0 $ ( „?0 "re?Mx;?(7?PKMj0 1i62 0 "/˜ ; e ] è WW=^ e H  H Mz4ž  B Ë ÊÙÎÊÊË ØÑ4Œ5Ðr5ÉÖ3á=â&âå&æ â&ç+Ÿ. H 762 (. hIq7$%‰. $ i6 ŽQ}y,J+57$ .%0 #"/’ #(#P+|K$ JKsJ0 7$ i6. v5$ ( 7?e/Q; Mx;/(7?Pj U0 ¡0 $ e ; Mx; e ] è WW ) ^ e ’ #(2(7?PŽQJ+I0 7?(2&$ J1i?(#"%$ 0 1Š,J+7g. h7?1‰D. ¢$ i6ŽQ} M{IKR6.%"D’ #(#P+|U$ JUsJ0 7Q$ i6 H  5 . JU£#J+76#že m&ØÎÖÑ&ÐÌØ n ÛZØ+€!5Ð&ÖÐÏ Ë ÕÉ C3Ù¡ØÑØ+€¥Ë ÙÊ e == e+OO ; = •V : > WW ;. H . Mj1vU(|eDs#; H ; e ] é__6V ^ e H 6 g (2 5?($ 0 76h$ i6 H z M ~,/.%0 $ .%0 (‰''i6J+. $ 0 1#(2 ,J+7?"%$ . 5?1$ "re!M{IKR6.,J+IKO62 0 (7?1t(7?P H IKO?0 .%0 1#(26!#"%$ 0 76he Í4¡ ¤ Í/¥D¦  e+3UJ2 ;) W ; f #"r(.%(7?e Mx; – ; eD&i?0 7?e' Q;(7?PŠ&I0 $ i?e’U; s#; e ] è WW é ^ e[ J+57?P"!#"%$ 0 76hOO. J(#1i6#" $ J$ i647?(2 |"r0 "JL ˜!g2 ’ 2 ($ 0 J+7?"%i?0 O?"re m&ØÎÖÑ&ÐÌØ n/pbÌ Ë ÉÒ4C3Ù¡ØÑØ+€1ÉÏ ÖË ÙÊ eeé<e+OO ;è•+_;. Tang, T.C., (2003), Japanese Aggregate Import Demand Function: Reassessment from the ‘Bounds’ !#"%$ 0 76hUOO. J(#1i?e mrÐ 5Ð&Ñ¥Ð&Ñ&ÒRÏ l&Éo¥ØÖÌ Ò4C3Ù¡ØÑØ+€Z‚ eeé#)e+OO ;#>é_ : > = <?;.  .   . .

(111) è>. ÈÉÊË Ì É

(112) ÍÎÏ Ì Î Ð&Ñ&Ò)ÓÉÔÉ

(113) Í

(114) Ð&ÕÖÎ××ØÙÐ1ÚÛ3ÉÑÏ ÖÐÌÜ5Ð&Ñ&×

(115) Ý5ÉÕË ÉÞ9ßà á=â&â=ã ä ßå&æ á=ç. $SSHQGL[ ê

(116) ë&ìí î§ë ù óò ô ö ñ&ñôeô î÷ ô ÷5ú ñ ö÷ ô ë ô ò ñ&ó ë&ö ò ô «K¬ ê

(117) ù=ö#­î «. ê

(118) ë&ìí î§ì ù óò ô ö ñ&ñôeô î÷ ô ÷5ú ñ ö÷ ô ë ô ò ñ&ó ë&ö ò ô «K¬!® îö T ë ó6«. ¨©Uª. µ%¹#µ´º ² ¼ Â#Ãļ ¯Z°%± ² °%³#´ µ¶¸»+· ² ± ¶ ¼½² ¾ ¾ ¿ÁÀ ¼ ± %µ Å#½ ËÌ. µ%¹#µ´ ·. ²¼Â ¼ À ± µ%Å#½. ¨©Uª. µ%¹#µ´º ² ¼ Â#Ãļ Æ'ÃÅ#Ç´ ÄA¶ ² ÃÅȯZ°%± ² °%³#´ µ¶É»+· ² ± ¶ ¼½² ¾ ¾ ¿ÊÀ ¼ ± %µ Å#½. Í Î¿ ÏÐÑ ÎÒÓÍ Ð¿ Ô#Õ Ñ Ö%Ò Ñ Í Î¿ ÔÖ%Ò. Ñ Í Ø+¿ Ð#ÔÒ. Ì!Ë Ì. Æ'ÃÅ#Ç´ ÄA¶ ² ÃÅ. µ%¹#µ´×Í Ø+¿ Ù#Õ Ñ ÏÒÚÍ Ø+¿ ÐAÛ Ñ ÏÒ ·. Ñ Í Î¿ ÔÎÒÜÑ Í Ø+¿ ÖrÕÒ Ý. Ë6Ñ Ö%Ò. »+² ± ¶ ¼½² ¾ ¾ ¿ÞÍ ÕA¿ Î#Ø/Ñ Ö%Ò. ²¼Â ¼ À ± µ%Å#½. Ë6Ñ ßÒ. »+² ± ¶ ¼½² ¾ ¾ ¿. Ñ Í Î¿ ÔÎÒ Ë à ». µ%¹#µ´ ·. ο Ö%ÐÑ Ö%ÒáÍ ß+¿ Ùß/Ñ Ö%Ò Ñ Í Î¿ ÔÖ%Ò. Ñ Í Ø+¿ Ð#ÔÒ. »+² ± ¶ ¼½² ¾ ¾ ¿ÞÍ Ø+¿ Û+Ö!Ñ ßÒÓÍ Ð¿ Ô#Û Ñ ßÒ Ñ Í Î¿ ÔÖ%Ò ãZä6» ·. µ%¹#µ´. Ì!Ë à » Ë6Ñ Ö%Ò. µ%¹#µ´ ·. Ñ Í Î¿ ÔÖ%Ò. Ñ Í Ø+¿ ÐAÕÒ. »+² ± ¶ ¼½² ¾ ¾ ¿ÞÍ ÛA¿ ÛÏ/Ñ ÏÒ. Ñ Í Î¿ ÔÖ%Ò Ì'ãZä6» Ë6Ñ Ö%Ò. ·. µ%¹#µ´. ·. Ñ Í Î¿ ÔÖ%Ò. Ñ Í Î¿ ÔÖ%Ò. Ñ Í Ø+¿ ÐAÕÒ. »+² ± ¶ ¼½² ¾ ¾ ¿ÞÍ ÕA¿ ÖrÕ Ñ Ö%ÒÓÍ ÕA¿ Ö%ÎÑ Ö%Ò Ñ Í Î¿ ÔÖ%Ò. Ñ Í Ø+¿ Ð#ÔÒ Í Ø+¿ ÐAÕ. »+² ± ¶ ¼½² ¾ ¾ ¿âÍ Ð¿ ÙØ/Ñ ØÒÚÍ Ð¿ ÙØ/Ñ ØÒ Ñ Í Î¿ ÔÖ%Ò. Í Î¿ Ð#Ï/Ñ ÎÒÓÍ Î¿ ÛÛ Ñ ÎÒ. ÌDåã Ë6Ñ Ö%Ò. Ë6Ñ Ö%Ò. µ%¹#µ´×Í Î¿ ÙÐÑ ÐÒÚÍ Î¿ Ï#Õ Ñ ÐÒ. Ñ Í Î¿ ÔÖ%Ò åã. Ñ Í Ø+¿ Ð#ÔÒ. »+² ± ¶ ¼½² ¾ ¾ ¿âÍ Ð¿ ÛÙ/Ñ ßÒÚÍ Ð¿ Ï#Õ Ñ ßÒ. Ñ Í Ø+¿ Ð#ÔÒ. Í Ö¿ ÖØ/Ñ ÛÒÓÍ Ø+¿ ÕÎÑ ÐÒ Ñ Í Î¿ ÔÖ%Ò. ß+¿ ÎÎÑ Ö%ÒÞÍ Ö¿ ÙÙ/Ñ Ö%Ò. ·. µ%¹#µ´. Ñ Í Ø+¿ ÐAÕÒ. Ö¿ Ö%ÎÑ ÛÒæÖ¿ ØØ/Ñ ÛÒ Ñ Í Î¿ ÔÎÒ. Ñ Í Ø+¿ ÛßÒ. »+² ± ¶ ¼½² ¾ ¾ ¿âÍ Ø+¿ Î#Ù/Ñ ÐÒçÍ Ø+¿ Î#Ø/Ñ ÐÒ Ý. Ñ Í Ø+¿ ÐAÕÒ. Ë6Ñ Ö%Ò. Í Î¿ ÔÎÒ. Ë6Ñ Ö%Ò. Ñ Í Ø+¿ ÖrÕÒ.  ê

(119) ë&ìí îèë ù óò ô ö ñ&ñôeô î÷ ô ÷5ú ñ ö÷ ô ë ô ò ñ&ó ë&ö ò ô «K¬hð ö ñ ë ô ò ë. ê

(120) ë&ìí îèì ù óò ô ö ñ&ñôeô î÷ ô ÷5ú ñ ö÷ ô ë ô ò ñ&ó ë&ö ò ô «K¬!® îö T ë ó6«. ¨©Uª. µ%¹#µ´º ² ¼ Â#Ãļ ¯Z°%± ² °%³#´ µ¶Þ»+· ² ± ¶ ¼½² ¾ ¾ ¿éÀ ¼ ± %µ Å#½ ËÌ. À. ¨©Uª. µ%¹#µ´º ² ¼ Â#Ãļ ² ¼  ¼ ± µ%Å#½ÚÆ'ÃÅ#Ç´ ÄA¶ ² ÃÅÚ¯Z°%± ² °%³#´ µ¶é»+· ² ± ¶ ¼½² ¾ ¾ ¿êÀ ¼ ± %µ Å#½. µ%¹#µ´ëÍ Ø#ÕÏ+¿ ÔÖ!Ñ ÏÒìÍ ÛÐ#Ô+¿ ÔÎÑ ÏÒ ·. Ñ Í Î¿ ÔÎÒ. Ñ Í Ø+¿ ÛßÒ. Ì!Ë Ì. Æ'ÃÅ#Ç´ ÄA¶ ² ÃÅ. µ%¹#µ´íÍ Î¿ Ø#Û Ñ ÛÒîÍ Ø+¿ ÔÔ/Ñ ÎÒ ·. Ñ Í Î¿ ÔÎÒ. Ë6Ñ ßÒ. »+² ± ¶ ¼½² ¾ ¾ ¿. ²¼Â ¼ À ± µ%Å#½ Ñ Í Ø+¿ Ð#ÔÒ. Ë6Ñ Ö%Ò. »+² ± ¶ ¼½² ¾ ¾ ¿ïÍ Ø+¿ Ïß/Ñ ØÒ Ñ Í Î¿ ÔÎÒ. Ë à » ·. µ%¹#µ´. Í Ø+¿ ÛØ/Ñ ÏÒðÍ ÖØ+¿ Ï#Õ Ñ ÏÒ Ñ Í Î¿ ÔÎÒ. Ñ Í Ø+¿ ÛßÒ. »+² ± ¶ ¼½² ¾ ¾ ¿. Ì!Ë à » Ë6Ñ ßÒ. ·. µ%¹#µ´. ß+¿ ÛØ/Ñ ÐÒñÍ Î¿ ÏÎÑ ÐÒ Ñ Í Î¿ ÔÎÒ. »+² ± ¶ ¼½² ¾ ¾ ¿ïÍ Ø+¿ ßÎÑ ØÒîÍ Î¿ Î#Ô/Ñ ØÒ Ñ Í Î¿ ÔÎÒ. ãZä6» ·. µ%¹#µ´. Í Ð¿ ÔÏ/Ñ ßÒòÍ ÛA¿ ßØ/Ñ ßÒ Ñ Í Î¿ ÔØÒ. »+² ± ¶ ¼½² ¾ ¾ ¿. Ñ Í Ø+¿ ÛÎÒ. Ì'ãZä6» Ë6Ñ ßÒ. ·. . Ë6Ñ Ö%Ò. Ñ Í Ø+¿ ÛßÒ. µ%¹#µ´íÍ Ö¿ Î#Ï/Ñ ØÒîÍ ß+¿ ÔÙ/Ñ ØÒ Ñ Í Î¿ ÔÐÒ. Ñ Í Ø+¿ ÛØÒ. »+² ± ¶ ¼½² ¾ ¾ ¿ïÍ ÕA¿ ÖÙ/Ñ ÎÒîÍ ÕA¿ ßÔ/Ñ ÎÒ Ñ Í Î¿ ÔÐÒ. . Ñ Í Ø+¿ ÛßÒ. Ñ Í Ø+¿ ÛØÒ. Ë6Ñ Ö%Ò.

(121) è )  ÈÉÊË Ì É

(122) ÍÎÏ Ì Î Ð&Ñ&Ò)ÓÉÔÉ

(123) Í

(124) Ð&ÕÖÎ××ØÙÐ1ÚÛ3ÉÑÏ ÖÐÌÜ5Ð&Ñ&×

(125) Ý5ÉÕË ÉÞ9ßà á=â&â=ã ä ßå&æ á=ç ê

(126) ë&ìí î óë ê

(127) ë&ìí î óì ¨©Uª ù óò ô ö ñ&ñôeô î÷ ô ÷5ú ñ ö÷ ô ë ô ò ñ&ó ë&ö ò ô «K¬ û

(128) ùí õë&ö ò ë ¨©Uª ù óò ô ö ñ&ñôeô î÷ ô ÷5ú ñ ö÷ ô ë ô ò ñ&ó ë&ö ò ô «K¬!® îö T ë ó6« µ%¹#µ´º ² ¼ Â#Ãļ ¯Z°%± ² °%³#´ µ¶Ú»+· ² ± ¶ ¼½² ¾ ¾ ¿ôÀ ¼ ± %µ Å#½ ËÌ. µ%¹#µ´éÍ Î¿ Öß/Ñ ÎÒ ·. ²¼Â µ%¹#µ´º ² ¼ Â#Ãļ ¼ À ± µ%Å#½íÆ'ÃÅ#Ç´ ÄA¶ ² ÃÅõ¯Z°%± ² °%³#´ µ¶ð»+· ² ± ¶ ¼½² ¾ ¾ ¿öÀ ¼ ± %µ Å#½ Í Ø+¿ ØÖ!Ñ ØÒ. Ñ Í Î¿ ÔÎÒëÑ Í Ø+¿ ÛßÒ. »+² ± ¶ ¼½² ¾ ¾ ¿NÍ Ï+¿ Õ+Ö!Ñ Ö%Ò. Ì!Ë Ì. µ%¹#µ´×Í Î¿ ØÔ/Ñ ÛÒôÍ Î¿ ÕÔ/Ñ ØÒ ·. Ñ Í Î¿ ÔÎÒÉÑ Í Ø+¿ ÛßÒ. Ë6Ñ Ö%Ò. Í Ï+¿ ÙÐÑ Ö%Ò. ·. µ%¹#µ´éÍ ß+¿ Ù#Õ Ñ Ö%Ò. »+² ± ¶ ¼½² ¾ ¾ ¿NÍ Ð¿ Ð#Ô/Ñ ßÒ. Ñ Í Î¿ ÔÎÒÉÑ Í Ø+¿ ÛßÒ. Í Î¿ Î#Ù/Ñ Ö%Ò. Ñ Í Î¿ ÔÖ%ÒëÑ Í Ø+¿ ÐAÕÒ Í Ð¿ ÐAÛ Ñ ßÒ. Ì!Ë à » Ë6Ñ Ö%Ò. ·. µ%¹#µ´. ·. µ%¹#µ´éÍ Î¿ ßÎÑ ÎÒ. Ñ Í Î¿ ÔÖ%ÒÉÑ Í Ø+¿ Ð#ÔÒ. »+² ± ¶ ¼½² ¾ ¾ ¿NÍ Ô+¿ ÖÙ/Ñ Ö%Ò. Ì'ãZä6» Ë6Ñ Ö%Ò. ·. µ%¹#µ´×Í Ö¿ Ï#Õ Ñ ÐÒôÍ Ö¿ ÔÎÑ ÐÒ Ñ Í Î¿ ÔØÒÉÑ Í Ø+¿ Û+Ö%Ò. »+² ± ¶ ¼½² ¾ ¾ ¿õÍ Ô+¿ Î#ß/Ñ ÎÒôÍ Ô+¿ ß#Õ Ñ ÎÒ. Ñ Í Î¿ ÔÎÒ. ê

(129) ë&ìí î øë ù óò ô ö ñ&ñôeô î÷ ô ÷5ú ñ ö÷ ô ë ô ò ñ&ó ë&ö ò ô «K¬|ø ñT ë óò ë. ·. ê

(130) ë&ìí î øì ù óò ô ö ñ&ñôeô î÷ ô ÷5ú ñ ö÷ ô ë ô ò ñ&ó ë&ö ò ô «K¬!® îö T ë ó6«. ¨©Uª. ²¼Â µ%¹#µ´º ² ¼ Â#Ãļ ¼ À ± µ%Å#½úÆ'ÃÅ#Ç´ ÄA¶ ² ÃÅï¯Z°%± ² °%³#´ µ¶û»+· ² ± ¶ ¼½² ¾ ¾ ¿ùÀ ¼ ± %µ Å#½. µ%¹#µ´ÉÍ ß+¿ ÖÙ/Ñ ÛÒ÷Í Î¿ ÙÏ/Ñ ÛÒ. üý. Ñ Í Î¿ ÔØÒæÑ Í Ø+¿ ÛÎÒ. Ì!Ë Ì. Ñ Í Î¿ ÔØÒ.  ·. Í Ø+¿ ÛÎ. »+² ± ¶ ¼½² ¾ ¾ ¿ÿÍ Î¿ ÕÐÑ ÐÒ÷Í Î¿ ÖrÕ Ñ ÏÒ Ñ Í Î¿ ÛÙÒ Ý.  ·. Í Ï+¿ ÕÕ Ñ ßÒ Ñ Í Ø+¿ ÏÙÒ.  ñô î. Ë6Ñ Ö%Ò. ·. µ%¹#µ´. Í Ö¿ÛÕ Ñ ÐÒ. Í Ø+¿ Î#ß/Ñ ÐÒ. Ñ Í Î¿ ÕÙÒáÍ Ø+¿ Ð#ØÒ. »+² ± ¶ ¼½² ¾ ¾ ¿ÿÍ ÕA¿ ØÙ/Ñ ØÒþÍ ÕA¿ ÐAÛ Ñ ØÒ. Ñ Í Ø+¿ Ð#ØÒ. Ñ Í Ø+¿ ßÖ%ÒæÑ Í Ø+¿ Ï#ÛÒ. Ë6Ñ Ö%Ò. Ñ Í Î¿ ÔØÒÓÑ Í Ø+¿ ÛÎÒ Ì!Ë à ». Ë6Ñ Ö%Ò. Ñ Í Î¿ ÕÙÒÓÑ Í Ø+¿ Ð#ØÒ. µ%¹#µ´ÉÍ Ø+¿ ÖrÛ Ñ ßÒ÷Í Ø+¿ ßÙ/Ñ ßÒ. »+² ± ¶ ¼½² ¾ ¾ ¿. Ñ Í Î¿ ÔØÒÓÑ Í Ø+¿ Û+Ö%Ò. »+² ± ¶ ¼½² ¾ ¾ ¿ÿÍ Ð¿ ÎÎÑ ÐÒþÍ Ð¿ Ö%ÐÑ ÐÒ. µ%¹#µ´Óß+¿ ÙÙ/Ñ ÏÒÈÍ Î¿ Ð#ß/Ñ ÏÒ Ñ Í Î¿ ÕÙÒæÑ Í Ø+¿ Ð#ØÒ. ²¼Â ¼ À ± µ%Å#½úÆ'ÃÅ#Ç´ ÄA¶ ² ÃÅ. µ%¹#µ´ðÍ Ö¿ ßÎÑ ÛÒþÍ Ø+¿ ÎAÕ Ñ ØÒ ·. Ë6Ñ Ö%Ò. »+² ± ¶ ¼½² ¾ ¾ ¿ÿÍ ÛA¿ ÖÙ/Ñ ÏÒ÷Í ÛA¿ ÖÔ/Ñ ÏÒ ü. Ë6Ñ Ö%Ò. Ñ Í Î¿ ÔØÒÉÑ Í Ø+¿ Û+Ö%Ò. ¨©Uª. µ%¹#µ´º ² ¼ Â#Ãļ ¯Z°%± ² °%³#´ µ¶î»+· ² ± ¶ ¼½² ¾ ¾ ¿ùÀ ¼ ± %µ Å#½. Ë6Ñ Ö%Ò. Ñ Í Î¿ ÔÖ%ÒÉÑ Í Ø+¿ Ð#ÔÒ. Í ÛA¿ ßÐÑ Ö%Ò. Ñ Í Î¿ ÔÎÒëÑ Í Ø+¿ Û+Ö%Ò. ß+¿ ßÔ/Ñ ÛÒ÷Í Î¿ Õ+Ö!Ñ ÐÒ. »+² ± ¶ ¼½² ¾ ¾ ¿õÍ Î¿ ÔÔ/Ñ ØÒôÍ Ö¿ ÖÖ!Ñ ÏÒ. Ñ Í Î¿ ÔÖ%ÒëÑ Í Ø+¿ ÐAÕÒ ãZä6». Ë6Ñ Ö%Ò. »+² ± ¶ ¼½² ¾ ¾ ¿õÍ Ð¿ ß#Û Ñ ÐÒôÍ Ð¿ Î#ß/Ñ ÐÒ. Ñ Í Î¿ ÔÎÒëÑ Í Ø+¿ ÛßÒ Ë à ». ²¼Â ¼ À ± µ%Å#½ëÆ'ÃÅ#Ç´ ÄA¶ ² ÃÅ. Ì'ãZä6» Ë6Ñ ßÒ. ·. µ%¹#µ´ðÍ ß+¿ Õß/Ñ ØÒþÍ Ð¿ ØÔ/Ñ ÏÒ Ñ Í Ø+¿ ß#ÛÒÓÑ Í Ø+¿ ÙÔÒ. »+² ± ¶ ¼½² ¾ ¾ ¿ÿÍ Ø+¿ Ïß/Ñ ÏÒ. Ë6Ñ Ö%Ò. Ñ Í Ø+¿ Ö%ÎÒ. !J1i6#1„$ i657?0 $'. JJ+$ "/L J+. "%$ ($ J+7?(.%0 $ |e$ i62 (hh#PQ}U0 $ iqI0 7?0 IK5Iw„?(#0 „6 \ 76L J+. I($ 0 J+7,/.%0 $ .%0 J+7t0 ". considered. “* “means that the values are significant at 10% significance level and others values are "r0 h+7?0 L 0 1#(7$ ($')+*ˆ;.  . .

(131) è?<. ÈÉÊË Ì É

(132) ÍÎÏ Ì Î Ð&Ñ&Ò)ÓÉÔÉ

(133) Í

(134) Ð&ÕÖÎ××ØÙÐ1ÚÛ3ÉÑÏ ÖÐÌÜ5Ð&Ñ&×

(135) Ý5ÉÕË ÉÞ9ßà á=â&â=ã ä ßå&æ á=ç ê

(136) ë&ìí î

(137) ê =î ø îõöî÷÷ ò ñ&óø î÷ùí ô ÷  \ 7?PO67?P7$ 34(.%0 (R62 #". 6. ,JL L 0 1#0 7$. $ : "%$ ($. f. J+R ;. . 27. Ý 8 Ý/9. W ;) W •. > ; W V6•. W ; WWW. 27. Ý 8 Ó @/9. ) W ; V6)<. éè ; •<eé. W ; WWW. : = ; é >?V. è ; >?Veé :. é < W ;W . é ; WW ) : A. : >?Vè ; )A> W. W ; WWW. ÝDBCD@/9 27. ÝBQ9. Z

(138)    27. Ý 8 Ý/9. è ; )|éV. V?; è?VV. W ; WWW. 27. Ý 8 Ó @/9. é<?; W )<. <?; • W. è. W ; WWW. W ; = V_. W ; _hé<. W ; = <6). ÝDBCD@/9 X =ÿ þ r  27. Ý 8 Ý/9. è ; é W •. )6; <èé. W ; WWW. 27. Ý 8 Ó @/9. è•6; éè6_. é#•6; VV+>. W ; WWW. W ; •<6•. W ; _héV. W ; = <+>. éA; è = _. é W ; •)V. W ; WWW. è?V?; = <eé. )•6; >&è&è. W ; WWW. W ; è) W. W ; )•V. W ; )<+>. ÝDBCD@/9 

(139) tý  27. Ý 8 Ý/9. 27. Ý 8 Ó @/9. ÝDBCD@/9.  ê

(140) ë&ìí î  

(141) ÷ ô ò T ë ô î

(142) öö ñ ö ð1ñ ööî ô ò ñ&ó ñ = îíú ñ ö

(143) û

(144) ùí õë&ö ò ë f'(.%(Iq$ . H "%$ 0 I($ #".  : .%($ 0 J. f. J+R ;. ,. W ; WW )A>?<6•. è >>?<è W ;= . W ; V6). [ ] : é ^. : W ; è>)¡è W <. é ; è&èéèé_ : A. W ;è =. [ ] : è ^. : W ; = < WW= _. è ; é _?))|éV :. W ; W=. [. W ; W é _ W )•. é V = <V W ;W . W ; __. [ ] : é ^. W ; W V__è6_. W ; W • W )). W ; _>. [ ] : è ^. : W ; •¡è?< == ). : W ; • = __6<. W ; >é. ’ H & ]: é ^. : W ; >&è)¡è> =. é ; V6•)))< : A. W ;W •. ’ h+. #"r"J+.%". . .

(145)

Referanslar

Benzer Belgeler

Imaging revealed a bilateral tortuous inter- nal carotid artery and segmental left internal carotid arterectomy and distal internal carotid artery - lateral common carotid

Features related to Turkey's economy, and economic development and growth are analyzed around the data especially based on 2009-2019; structural problems of

Oxford Dictionary of National Biography Cadell Ddyrnllug (fl. 5th cent.), king of Powys, was the legendary ancestor of the later ‘Cadelling’ kings of early medieval Powys in

Using its interac- tions with the objects, iCub learned the affordances of the objects and from these, built different types of SVM models for predicting the nouns and the adjectives

the normal modes of a beam under axial load with theoretical derivations of its modal spring constants and e ffective masses; details of the experimental setup and methods;

The results of poverty depth (0.34) among the sampled respondents implied that an average poor respondent needed 34.0% of the specified minimum bench mark (for each

41 Şekil 7: Gruplardaki endotel VEGF immünhistokimyasal boyanma değerleri…...43 Şekil 8: Gruplardaki neovaskülarizasyon alanlarının tüm kornea alanına