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Özet

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Anahtar Kelimeler: : Karakaya barajÕ<DSD\sinir a÷ODUÕ+LGURHOHNWULNsantrali, Modelleme

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mühendislikdergisi

Cilt: 3-9

Dicle Üniversitesi Mühendislik Fakültesi

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The prediction of efficiency and

production parameters in Karakaya

hpp using the artificial network

Extended abstract

Due to an increase in conventional energy prices and environmental effects, such as air pollution, global heating, depletion of the ozone layer, greenhouse effects; the use of renewable energy has increased, following the energy crisis in 1970. The continuous depletion of conventional energy resources and its adverse environmental impacts have revived the interest on renewable energy sources. Among the renewable energy sources, hydropower is considered to be economical, readily available and non-polluting source. Turkey, as one of the countries recently being affected by energy shortage, is in search for various solutions to close this gap. Out of several solution ideas, increasing the proportion of hydroelectric power, which is at %18,7 as of 2007 out of the whole energy production, has become one of the most applied. This, in turn, resulted in ever-increasing projects of building many large dams and run-of-river type hydroelectric power plants.

It is known that the hydroelectric potential in our FRXQWU\H[LVWVLQ)ÕUDW%DVLQ,QWKLVDUHD.HEDQ .DUDND\D $WDWUN %LUHFLN DQG .DUNDPÕú hydroelectric power plants provide significant FRQWULEXWLRQV WR FRXQWU\¶V HFRQRP\ As the amount of water in a dam is very important factor for producing energy, the usage of this water efficient is also very important.

Production and efficiency forecasting plays an important role for the power system operational planners and also most of the participants in the nowadays electricity markets. With the importance of the production and efficiency in power system operation and electricity markets, many methods for arriving careful results, are represented.

Artificial neural networks have been successfully used in solving complicated problems in different areas of application including pattern recognition, identification, classification, speech, vision and control systems.

Artificial neural networks, originally developed to mimic basic biological neural systems – the human brain particularly, are composed of a number of interconnected simple processing elements called neurons or nodes. Each node receives an input signal which is the total µLQIRUPDWLRQ¶ from other nodes or external stimuli, processes it locally through an activation or transfer function and produces a transformed output signal to other nodes or external outputs. Although each individual neuron implements its function rather slowly and imperfectly, collectively a network can perform a surprising number of tasks quite efficiently.

In this study, it has been predicted the efficiency and production of Karakaya Hydroelectric Power PODQW LQ 'L\DUEDNÕU SURYLQFH XVLQJ WKH $UWLILFLDO Neural Networks (ANN). In this analysis, in the basin lake province humidity, from the meteorological data such as amount of rainfall, amount of vaporization in free surface and average pressure and temperature and from hydroelectric power plant data such as the rate of water, hydraulic head, the amount of vaporized water and specific water consumption for the last five years some modeling have been conducted taking three-days averages of the data. Taking entries as meteorological data and hydroelectric power plant data, production and efficiency of hydroelectric power plant have been output conducting a study of Artificial Neural Networks model. The obtained equations from theoritical analysis have been solved using Matlab and Excel and have presented graphically.

The efficiency and production of Karakaya hydroelectric power plant have been predicted with a high sensitivity with developed ANN model. Thus, it will be helpful for studies to be done in the future years to meet demands.

Keywords: Karakaya dam, Artificial neural

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PRGHOOHQPHVL NRQXODUÕQGD ROGXNoD JHQLú ELU X\JXODPD DODQÕQD VDKLSWLU %X \HQL PHWRWOD \DSÕODQ oDOÕúPDODUGD WDKPLQ HGLOHQ JQHú radyas\RQXGH÷HUOHUL|OoOHQJQHúUDG\DV\RQX GH÷HUOHUL\OH NDUúÕODúWÕUÕOPÕúWÕU 6RQXo RODUDN <6$ PHWRGX\OD EXOXQDQ GH÷HUOHULQ |OoP GH÷HUOHUL\OH X\XP J|VWHUGL÷L J|UOPúWU ,úÕN vd., 2011).

*o UHWLPL YH GD÷ÕWÕPÕQGD \N WDKPLQLQLQ E\N |QHPL YDUGÕU <N LKWL\DFÕ LOH LOJLOL NDUDUODU \N WDKPLQLQGHQ HOGH HGLOHQ YHULOHUOH DOÕQÕU <N WDKPLQLQGHNL GR÷UXOXN LOHULVL LoLQ úLPGLGHQ YHULOHFHN NDUDUODUGD HNRQRPLN DoÕGDQ E\N ND]DQoODU VD÷OD\DELOLU <N HWNLOH\HFHN WDKPLQOHUVÕFDNOÕNED÷ÕOQHPEXOXWOXOXNRUDQÕ, EDVÕQo U]JDU KÕ]Õ YH \D÷PXU JLEL HWNHQOHU PRGHOOHUGH NXOODQÕOPÕúWÕU <6$ YHULOHU DUDVÕQGDNL LOLúNLOHUL PRGHOOHPH NDELOL\HWLQGHQ GROD\Õ \N WDKPLQOHULQGH JHOHQHNVHO PHWRWODUD J|UH E\N ELU VWQON VD÷ODPÕúWÕU <6$¶QÕQ GL÷HUELUVWQO÷LVHVDGHFHLstatistiksel veriye LKWL\DoGX\PDVÕGÕU

<6$HOHNWULNJoVLVWHPOHULQGHNÕVDVUHOL\N WDKPLQL LoLQ GH X\JXODQPÕúWÕU $÷ÕQ JLULúOHUL VDGHFH JHoPLú \N YHULOHULQGHQ ROXúXU +DYD GH÷LúNHQOHUL QHP VÕFDNOÕN YE NXOODQÕOPDPÕúWÕU <6$¶QÕQ oÕNÕúÕ JHOHFHN Vaatin \N WDKPLQLGLU +HP H÷LWLP KHP GH WHVW YHUL VHWOHUL LoLQ HOGH HGLOHQ RUWDODPD KDWD ¶GHQ GDKDD]GÕU(úL\RN

(OHNWULN ÕVÕWPDOÕ ELU EXKDU JHQHUDW|UQGHQ HOGH HGLOHQVXGHYUHVLLoLQWHUVDNÕú\|QQGHVUHNOL GRODúDQ EXKDU \DUGÕPÕ LOH oDOÕúDQ ELU ÕVÕ GH÷LúWLULFLVLQGHQ ROXúDQ ELU WHUPLN VDQWUDOLQ NRQWUROQGH <6$ NXOODQÕOPÕúWÕU .RQWURO JLULúL RODUDN EXKDU DNÕúÕQÕ NXOODQDQ WHUPLN VDQWUDOOHULQLQ NRQWURO LoLQ <6$ PRGHOOHULQLQ X\JXQROGX÷XYHVDQWUDOGDYUDQÕúÕQÕQoHYULPLoL WDKPLQOHULGDKDKÕ]OÕHOGHHGLOHELOGL÷LLoLQEDVLW D÷ \DSÕODUÕQÕQ NDUPDúÕN RODQODUD J|UH WHUFLK HGLOHELOLU ROGX÷X EXOXQPXúWXU 0LODQLo YG 1996).

$NDUVXODUÕQWDúÕGÕNODUÕNDWÕPDGGHPLNWDUODUÕQÕQ ELOLQPHVL YH WRSODP NDWÕ PLNWDUÕQÕQ

(7)

Karakaya HES’de verim ve üretim parametrelerinin \DSD\VLQLUD÷ÕLOHWDKPLQL KHVDSODQPDVÕ |]HOOLNOH EDUDM KD]QHOHUL JLEL su

GHSRODPD \DSÕODUÕQÕQ SODQODQPDVÕ YH SURMHOHQGLULOPHVLQGH E\N |QHP WDúÕPDNWDGÕU

%DUDMODUÕQ ekonomik olarak

SURMHOHQGLULOPHVLQGH NDWÕ PDGGH WU YH PLNWDUÕQÕQ GR÷UX RODUDN Wahmin edilmesi zorunludur. YSA \|QWHPL LOH JQON \D÷Õú GH÷HUOHUL JLUGL RODUDN NXOODQÕOÕS JQON WRSODP QHKLU DVNÕ PDGGHVL WDKPLQL \DSÕOPÕúWÕU %X VRQXoODU J|VWHUPLúWLU NL |OoPOHULQ oRN D] ROGX÷X \D GD KLo \DSÕOPDGÕ÷Õ KDY]DODUGDNL KLGURORMLN E\NONOHULQ WDKPLQL <6$ \DSÕODELOPHVLQLQ|QHPLRUWD\DoÕNPÕúWÕU*OGDO vd., 2005).

ÇaOÕúPDGDkXOODQÕODQysa modeli

.UHVHO ÕVÕQPD NXUDNOÕN EXKDUODúPD \D÷Õú PLNWDUÕ VÕFDNOÕN DNDUVXODUÕQ DNÕú PLNWDUÕ QHP UDG\DV\RQU]JDUKÕ]ÕYHWRSUD÷ÕQQHPGXUXPX KLGURHOHNWULN UHWLPLQL HWNLOH\HQ LNOLPVHO GH÷LúNHQOHUGLU +LGURHOHNWULN UHWLPL VÕFDNOÕN EXKDUODúPD \D÷Õú PLNWDUÕ QHP YH GL÷HU LNOLPVHO SDUDPHWUHOHUH ED÷OÕ RODQ VX PLNWDUÕQD GHEL ED÷OÕGÕU <D÷Õú PLNWDUÕQGDNL GH÷LúLP KLGURHOHNWULN VDQWUDOLQGHNL UHWLOHFHN HQHUML PLNWDUÕQÕ E\N |OoGH HWNLOHPHNWHGLU (dÕQDU 2007).

%XoDOÕúPDNDSVDPÕnda meteorolojik ve santral YHULOHULQH ED÷OÕ RODUDN .DUDND\D +LGURHOHNWULN 6DQWUDOLQLQYHULPYHUHWLPGH÷HUOHULQLQWDKPLQL DPDFÕ\OD ELU \DSD\ VLQLU D÷Õ ROXúWXUPDN LoLQ MATLAB 7.10.0 (R2010a) SURJUDPÕ NXOODQÕOPÕúWÕU %X <6$ PRGHOLQGH VDQWUDO J|O KDY]DVÕQÕQ EXOXQGX÷X E|OJHQLQ PHWHRURORMLN verilerden, ortalama nem (%) \D÷Õú PLNWDUÕ (mm), DoÕN\]H\EXKDUODúPDPLNWDUÕRUWDODPD EDVÕQo K3D, ortalama bulutluluk ve ortalama VÕFDNOÕN (o_{C) GH÷HUOHUL LOH VDQWUDO YHULOHULQGHQ}

ise gelen suyun debisi (m3_{/s), EXKDUODúDQ VX}

(m3) VX\XQ HQHUML\H RUDQÕ (m3/kWh) ve RUWDODPD QHW Gú (m) YHULOHUL JLULú YHULOHUL RODUDN DOÕQPÕúWÕU *LULú YHULOHUL VRQ EHú \ÕOD DLW (2007-oJQONRUWDODPDODUDOÕQDUDNELU \DSD\ VLQLU D÷ÕQÕQ H÷LWLOPHVLQGH NXOODQÕOPÕúWÕU (h$ù .DUDND\D +HV )DDOL\HW 5DSRUODUÕ '0ø Verileri, 2013).

9HULOHUDUDVÕQGDQùHNLO¶GHJ|VWHULOGL÷L]HUH PHWHRURORMLN YH VDQWUDO YHULOHUL JLULú KLGURHOHNWULNVDQWUDOLQUHWLPYHYHULPGH÷HUOHUL GH oÕNÕú ELOJLVL RODFDN úHNLOGH DNÕOOÕ VLVWHPOHULQ oDOÕúPDVÕ G]HQOHQPLúWLU dDOÕúPDGD LQFHOHGL÷LPL] .DUDND\D +(6 KDY]DVÕQGDNL illerin JQONYHULOHUL\ÕOLoLQ'0ø¶GHQWHPLQ HGLOPLúWLU'ROD\ÕVÕ\ODELUJLULúSDUDPHWUHVLKHU ELULOLoLQ\DNODúÕNJHUoHNYHULROXSKDY]D LoLQLVHYHULLQFHOHQPLúWLU$QFDNPRGHlde, KHU ELU \ÕOÕQ JQON RUWDODPDVÕ ve bu RUWDODPDODUÕQ VRQXFXQGD HOGH HGLOHQ YHULOHULQ JQONRUWDODPDODUÕGLNNDWHDOÕQPÕúWÕU0RGHOGH KHU ELU JLULú SDUDPHWUHVL LoLQ NXOODQÕODQ YHUL VD\ÕVÕ ¶GLU 6RQXoWD ùHNLO 7 ve ùekil 8¶GHNL JUDILNOHUGH J|UOHQ KHU GDWD SRLQW \ÕOÕQ D\ÕQGDQ EDúODPDN ]HUH WP D\ODUÕ WHPVLO etmektedir.

ølk 4 \ÕOOÕNYHULOHU\DSD\VLQLUD÷ÕQÕQH÷LWLPLYH VRQ \ÕO YHULOHUL LVH WHVWL LoLQ NXOODQÕOPÕúWÕU 8\JXODPDGD NXOODQÕODQ <6$ PRGHOL IDUNOÕ WDEDNDYHQ|URQVD\ÕODUÕLoLQGHQHQPLúWLU6RQXo RODUDN HQ L\L o|]P PLPDULVLQL LWHUDV\RQ VRQXFX ùHNLO 5¶GH J|UOHQ WHN JL]OL WDEDND (2 Q|URQOX ve 10 JLULú Q|URnuna sahip ileri beslemeli YSA modelini temsil etmektedir.

<DSD\ VLQLU D÷ÕQÕ H÷LWPHN LoLQ JHUL\H \D\ÕOPD DOJRULWPDVÕ trainLm YH HúLN DNWLYDV\RQ (sigmoid) IRQNVL\RQXVHoLOPLúWLU

.DUDND\D +(6 J|O KDY]DVÕQÕQ EXOXQGX÷X 'L\DUEDNÕU (OD]Õ÷ YH $GÕ\DPDQ LOOHULQLQ PHWHRURORML LVWDV\RQODUÕQGDQ YH \ÕOODUÕ DUDVÕ \ÕOD DLW RUWDODPD QHP \D÷Õú PLNWDUÕ DoÕN \]H\ EXKDUODúPD PLNWDUÕ RUWDODPD EDVÕQo RUWDODPD EXOXWOXOXN YH ortalamD VÕFDNOÕN GH÷HUOHUL JLEL PHWHRURORMLN YHULOHU '0ø *HQHO 0GUO÷¶QGHQ WHPLQ HGLOPLúWLU $\UÕFD .DUDND\D +(6¶H DLW JHOHQ VX\XQ GHELVL EXKDUODúDQ VX VX\XQ HQHUML\H RUDQÕ YH RUWDODPD QHW Gú JLEL VDQWUDO YHULOHUL GH (h$ù .DUDND\D +(6 0GUO÷¶QGHQ temiQHGLOPLúWLU

(8)

ùHNLO5. dDOÕúPDGDNXOODQÕODQ<6$PRGHOL 7HPLQHGLOHQEX\ÕOOÕNPHWHRURORMLNYHVDQWUDO YHULOHULQLQ ¶HU JQON RUWDODPDODUÕ ([FHO SURJUDPÕQGD KHVDSODQDUDN KHU ELU parametre LoLQGH÷HUHOGHHGLOPLúWLU7HPLQHGLOHQEX YHULOHU <6$¶\Õ H÷LWPHN LoLQ NXOODQÕOPÕúWÕU 6 adet meteorolojik verisi ile 4 adet santral YHULVLQGHQROXúDQWRSODPJLULúOLYH.DUDND\D +(6¶LQ DNWLI UHWLP YH YHULP WDKPLQLQGHQ ROXúDQoÕNÕúOÕELUPRGHOOHPHROXúWXUXOPXúWXU 0RGHOGHQ HOGH HGLOHQ DNWLI UHWLP YH YHULP GH÷HUOHUL |OoOHQ JHUoHN GH÷HUOHUOH X\XP J|VWHUPLú YH UHJUHV\RQ GH÷HUL 52) 0.99 olarak EXOXQPXúWXU

<6$ PRGHOL RODUDN *HUL <D\ÕOÕPOÕ *< oRN NDWPDQOÕ \DSD\ VLQLU D÷ODUÕ NXOODQÕOPÕúWÕU <6$ PRGHOLQLQ SHUIRUPDQVÕ RUWD NDWPDQGDNL Q|URQ VD\ÕVÕ JLULú VD\ÕVÕ |÷UHQPH NDWVD\ÕVÕ JLEL SDUDPHWUHOHU GH÷LúWLULOHUHN GHQHPH \DQÕOPD \ROX LOH HQ L\L VRQXoODU HOGH HGLOPH\H oDOÕúÕOPÕúWÕU 2OXúWXUXODQ <6$ PRGHOL LOH .DUDND\D +(6¶LQ ELU VRQUDNL \ÕOD DLW DNWLI

UHWLPYHVDQWUDOJHQHOYHULPOHULGúNELUKDWD RUDQÕ\OD WDKPLQ HGLOPLúWLU YSA modellemesinde Levenberg-Marquardt (LM), |÷UHQPHDOJRULWPDVÕNXOODQÕOPÕúWÕU

%X oDOÕúPDGD oHúLWOL DUD NDWPDQ VD\ÕODUÕ NXOODQÕOPÕúWÕU <DSÕODQ <6$ PRGHOOHPH oDOÕúPDODUÕQGDGH÷LúLNDOJRULWPDODUGHQHQPLúYH HQ X\JXQ o|]P EXOXQPXúWXU ùHNLO 6¶Ga YSA DOJRULWPDVÕQÕQH÷LWLPYHULOHULQLQDPDoGH÷HULQH \DNÕQVDPDVÕ YHULOPLúWLU <DNODúÕN ELQ LWHUDV\RQ sonucunda ortalama karesel hata (MSE) GH÷HULQGH KHGHIOHQHQ 1x10-3 _GH÷HULQH

XODúÕOPÕúWÕU

ùHNLO /0DOJRULWPDVÕLoLQH÷LWLP\DNODúÕPÕ LOHRUWDODPDNDUHKDWDVÕQÕQGH÷LúLPL %X VRQXo PHWHRURORMLN YH VDQWUDO YHULOHUL \DUGÕPÕ LOH JLUGL YHULOHUL GL÷HU KLGURHOHNWULN VDQWUDOOHULQGH UHWLP YH YHULP GH÷HUOHULQLQ E\N ELU GR÷UXOXNOD WDKPLQ HGLOHFH÷LQL J|VWHUPLúWLU 0RGHO YH JHUoHN GH÷HUOHU DUDVÕQGDNL JUDILNOHU ùHNLO 7 YH ùHNLO 8¶Ge J|UOPHNWHGLU Nem <D÷Õú 0LNWDUÕ $oÕN<]H\ %XKDUODúPD %DVÕQo Bulutluluk 6ÕFDNOÕN Gelen Suyun Debisi %XKDUODúDQ Su Suyun Enerjiye 2UDQÕ 1HW'ú Aktif hUHWLP Verim

(9)

Karakaya HES’de verim ve üretim parametrelerinin \DSD\VLQLUD÷ÕLOHWDKPLQL

ùHNLO7. Karakaya HES için YSA ile tahmin edilen aktif üUHWLPGH÷HUOHULQLQJHUoHN

|OoPGH÷HUOHULLOHNDUúÕODúWÕUÕOPDVÕ ùHNLO8. .DUDND\D+(6LoLQ<6$LOHWDKPLQ edilen vHULPGH÷HUOHULQLQJHUoHN ölçüm GH÷HUOHULLOHNDUúÕODúWÕUÕOPDVÕ

Semboller

Hn 1HWGúP Hgeo %UWJHRPHWULNKLGUROLNGúP +k .D\ÕSKLGUROLNGúP Pm 0LOJF: 1*o: ng g]JOKÕ]GHYGDN Q :Hacimsel debi (m3_/s) ȡ6X\XQ\R÷XQOX÷XNJP3₎ J<HUoHNLPLLYPHVLPV2₎ Ș9HULP Ȗ 6X\XQ|]JOD÷ÕUOÕ÷ÕNJP3₎

Sonuçlar

hONHPL]GH KHU \ÕO \DNODúÕN DUWDQ HQHUML WDOHELQLQ NDUúÕODQDELOPHVL LoLQ |]HOOLNOH \HQLOHQHELOLU HQHUML ND\QDNODUÕQD GR÷UX ELU \|QHOLú J|VWHULOHUHN ND\QDN oHúLWOLOL÷L ROXúWXUXOPDOÕGÕU +DOHQ GQ\DGD HQHUMLQLQ Eel NHPL÷LQL ROXúWXUDQ IRVLO ND\QDNOÕ \DNÕWODU JQ JHoWLNoH KHP WNHQPHNWH KHP GH IL\DWODUÕ VUHNOL DUWDQ ELU H÷LOLP VHUJLOHPHNWHGLU hONH HOHNWULN UHWLPLQGH GR÷DOJD]D ED÷ÕPOÕOÕ÷ÕPÕ] GúQOG÷QGH HOHNWULN HQHUMLVL UHWLPLPL]LQ GÕúDED÷ÕPOÕOÕNWDQNXUWDUÕODUDNWDOHELQNHVLQWLVL] JYHQLOLU YH GúN PDOL\HWOHUOH NDUúÕODQPDVÕ ]DUXUHW KDOLQH JHOPLúWLU $U] JYHQOL÷LPL]LQ VD÷ODQPDVÕ \HWHUOL PLNWDUGD EXOXQDQ KLGUROLN HQHUML EDúWD ROPDN ]HUH WP \HQL \HUOL YH \HQLOHQHELOLU HQHUML ND\QDNODUÕQÕQ NXOODQÕOPDVÕ iOHPPNQRODELOPHNWHGLU

'R÷X $QDGROX %|OJHVL¶QLQ VX YH HOHNWULN HQHUMLVL SRWDQVL\HOL ONH JD\UL VDIL PLOOL KkVÕODVÕQD KHU \ÕO PLO\DUODUFD GRODU NDWNÕGD EXOXQXOPDVÕQÕ VD÷OD\DUDN E|OJH LQVDQÕ \DQÕQGD ONH LQVDQÕQÕQ GD UHIDK YH JHOLU G]H\LQL DUWÕUPDGD \DUGÕPFÕ ROPDNWDGÕU g]HOOLNOH )ÕUDW KDY]DVÕ ]HULQGH EXOXQDQ Karakaya hidroelektrik santrallinin ONHYH|]HOOLNOHE|OJH HNRQRPLVLQH oRN E\N NDWNÕVÕ EXOXQPDNWDGÕU.

6DGHFH HOHNWULN HQHUMLVL RODUDN NXUXOXúXQGDQ EHUL.DUDND\D+(6¶LQLVH183952 *:UHWLPGH EXOXQPXú YH ONH HNRQRPLVLQH \DNODúÕN 23 milyar USD JHWLULVLROPXúWXU%XJHOLUONHGÕú WLFDUHW DoÕ÷ÕQÕQ GDKD oRN DUWPDVÕQÕ HQJHOOHGL÷L JLELHQHUMLDU]ÕPÕ]DoÕVÕQGDQGDoRN|QHPOLGLU 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4x 10

7 _{Karakaya HES Toplam Aktif Üretim Tahmini (kWh)}

Aylar T opl am A k t if Ü r et im ( k Wh) Model Olcum 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 91.1 91.2 91.3 91.4 91.5 91.6

91.7 Karakaya HES Verim Tahmini

Aylar V e ri m (% ) Model Olcum

(10)

hONHHNRQRPLVLQHEXGHUHFH|QHPOLNDWNÕVÕRODQ hidroelektrik santrallHULQHQYHULPOL ELUúHNLOGH oDOÕúWÕUÕOPDVÕ YH PDNVLPXP G]H\GH HQHUML UHWPHOHUL LoLQ YHULPL HWNLOH\HFHN KHU WUO HWNHQOHULQ GHWD\OÕ ELU úHNLOGH LQFHOHQPHVL gerekmektedir. g]HOOLNOH JHoPLú G|QHPOHUGHNL PHWHRURORMLN GH÷HUOHULQ VDQWUDOLQ YHULPLQGH YH UHWLPLQGH QH NDGDU ELU HWNLVL ROGX÷X LQFHOHQPHOL JHOHFHN G|QHPOHUH GDLU YHULP YH UHWLPWDKPLQOHULDNÕOOÕVLVWHPOHUOH\DSÕOPDOÕGÕU Ülkenin HOHNWULN HQHUMLVL LKWL\DFÕQÕQ DUWDFD÷Õ ELOLQHQ VRQUDNL \ÕOODU LoLQ PHYFXW VDQWUDOOHULQ UHWHELOHFHNOHUL HQHUML PLNWDUODUÕQÕQ \DNODúÕN GH÷HUOHUL E\N ELU GR÷UXOXNOD WDKPLQ edilebilecektir.

%XoDOÕúPDda, DNÕOOÕVLVWHP X\JXODPDODUÕQÕQELU WU RODQ <6$ LOH .DUDND\D +(6 LoLQ - \ÕOODUÕ DUDVÕQGDNL \ÕOOÕN PHWHRURORMLN YHULOHUH J|UH UHWLP YH YHULP WDKPLQL \DSÕOPÕúWÕU Karakaya Hidroelektrik Santralinin DNWLI UHWLP GH÷HUL ve santralin enerji verimi \NVHN ELU SHUIRUPDQV YH oRN GúN KDWDODUOD WDKPLQ HGLOPLúWLU %X oDOÕúPD GL÷HU hidroelektrik santrallerine de uygulanarak, HOHNWULN SL\DVDVÕQÕQ DU] WDOHS GHQJHVL LoLn bir ND\QDNROXúWXUPDVÕVD÷ODQDELOHFHNWLU

Kaynaklar

BDúHúPH H., (2003). ³+LGURHOHNWULN 6DQWUDOOHU YH

+LGURHOHNWULN6DQWUDO7HVLVOHUL´ Ankara.

ÇÕQDU D., (2007). ³+LGURHOHNWULN (QHUML hUHWLPLQLQ +LEULG %LU 0RGHO øOH 7DKPLQL´ <NVHN Lisans

Tezi øVWDQEXO 7HNQLN hQLYHUVLWHVL (QGstri

0KHQGLVOL÷L

'0ø 0HWHRURORML *HQHO 0GUO÷ 780$6 www.mgm.gov.tr

'6ø 'HYOHW 6X øúOHUL *HQHO 0GUO÷ www.dsi.gov.tr

EúL\Rk, E., (1996). “*o 6LVWHPOHULQGH<DSD\ =HND

8\JXODPDODUÕ´ H (QHUML (OHNWULN,

Elektro-PHNDQLN6D\Õ-70.

(h$ù (OHNWULN hUHWLP $QRQLP ùLUNHWL *HQHO 0GUO÷)DDOL\HW5DSRUODUÕwww.euas.gov.tr (h$ù .DUDND\D +(6 øúOHWPH 0GUO÷ )DDOL\HW

5DSRUODUÕ

GOGDO V., Tayfur, G., (2005). ³$NDUVXODUGD*QON 7RSODP $VNÕ 0DGGHVL 0LNWDUÕQÕQ <DSD\ 6LQLU $÷ODUÕ øOH 7DKPLQL´ %LOLPGH 0RGHUQ <|QWHPOHU

Sempozyumu, Kocaeli.

ønan, A., (1999). “<DSD\ 6LQLU $÷ODUÕQÕQ *o

SistemleriQGH .XOODQÕP $ODQODUÕ´, Kaynak

(OHNWULN6D\Õ.

IúÕN ( øQDOOÕ M., (2011). “Global Radiation

Predict by Using Artificial Neural Network for Tunceli City´H-Journal of New World Sciences

Academy, ISSN: 1306-3111, 6(1), NWSA-4047-1.

Milanic, S. ve Karba, R., (1996). “Neural Network 0RGHOVIRU3UHGLFWLYH&RQWURORID7HUPDO3ODQW´ In: Proc. of the Int. Conf. EANN, 96, London, UK, 151-154.

7(ø$ù 7UNL\H (OHNWULN øOHWLP $QRQLP ùLUNHWL *HQHO 0GUO÷ )DDOL\HW 5DSRUODUÕ www.teias.gov.tr